Political partisanship and mobility restriction during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are effective in curbing the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. All US states have adopted NPI policies, but the compliance to these measures and influence of sociopolitical factors on NPI adherence is unknown. NPI adherence may be approximated by personal mobility in a population that is tracked by anonymous mobile phone data. STUDY DESIGN: This is a cross-sectional study of state-level mobility changes across the US. METHODS: State-level mobility was based on anonymous mobile phone data from multiple participating carriers collected by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (http://www.healthdata.org). Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to examine the strength and direction of the relationship between political affiliations and mobility restriction across states. Multivariable linear regression analyses were used to assess other factors that may impact personal travel. RESULTS: All states experienced a decline in personal mobility but had varying nadirs ranging from a 34% to a 69% reduction in mobility, which was not temporally related to the timing of state-level NPI measures. There was a statistically significant linear and negative correlation (r = -0.79) between the proportion of Republicans/leaning Republicans and NPI adherence across US states. The negative association between Republicans and NPI adherence was significant even when adjusting for urbanization, proportion of essential workers, population, Gini index, and poverty rates. CONCLUSIONS: Political orientation affects risk perception, which may contribute to the unwillingness of some individuals to perceive the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic as a risk and to comply with NPIs. Our results highlight the importance of sociopolitical factors in disease control and emphasize the importance of bipartisan efforts in fighting the pandemic. These results may have implications for the development, dissemination, and communication of public health policies.

Protective measures, personal experience, and the affective psychology of time.

We examined the role of time and affect in intentions to purchase a risk-protective measure (Studies 1 and 2) and explored participant abilities to factor time into the likelihood judgments that presumably underlie such intentions (Study 3). Participants worried more about losing their possessions and were more likely to purchase a protective measure given a longer term lease than a short-term lease, but only if their belongings were described in affect-poor terms. If described instead as being particularly special and affect-rich, participants neglected time and were about equally likely to purchase a risk-protective measure for shorter and longer term leases. However, and consistent with prior literature, the cognitive mechanism underlying this time-neglect-with-affect-richness effect seemed to be the greater use of the affect heuristic in the shorter term than the longer term. Study 2 results demonstrated that prior experience with having been burglarized amplified the interactive effect of time and affect. Greater deliberation did not attenuate this effect as hypothesized whether deliberation was measured through numeracy or manipulated through instructions. The results of Study 3 indicated that few participants are able to calculate correctly the risk numbers necessary to take time into account. Two possible solutions to encourage more purchases of protective measures in the long term are discussed.

Assessment of the regional economic impacts of catastrophic events: CGE analysis of resource loss and behavioral effects of an RDD attack scenario.

We investigate the regional economic consequences of a hypothetical catastrophic event-attack via radiological dispersal device (RDD)-centered on the downtown Los Angeles area. We distinguish two routes via which such an event might affect regional economic activity: (i) reduction in effective resource supply (the resource loss effect) and (ii) shifts in the perceptions of economic agents (the behavioral effect). The resource loss effect relates to the physical destructiveness of the event, while the behavioral effect relates to changes in fear and risk perception. Both affect the size of the regional economy. RDD detonation causes little capital damage and few casualties, but generates substantial short-run resource loss via business interruption. Changes in fear and risk perception increase the supply cost of resources to the affected region, while simultaneously reducing demand for goods produced in the region. We use results from a nationwide survey, tailored to our RDD scenario, to inform our model values for behavioral effects. Survey results, supplemented by findings from previous research on stigmatized asset values, suggest that in the region affected by the RDD, households may require higher wages, investors may require higher returns, and customers may require price discounts. We show that because behavioral effects may have lingering long-term deleterious impacts on both the supply-cost of resources to a region and willingness to pay for regional output, they can generate changes in regional gross domestic product (GDP) much greater than those generated by resource loss effects. Implications for policies that have the potential to mitigate these effects are discussed.

Perception of risk.

Studies of risk perception examine the judgements people make when they are asked to characterize and evaluate hazardous activities and technologies. This research aims to aid risk analysis and policy-making by providing a basis for understanding and anticipating public responses to hazards and improving the communication of risk information among lay people, technical experts, and decision-makers. This work assumes that those who promote and regulate health and safety need to understand how people think about and respond to risk. Without such understanding, well-intended policies may be ineffective.

Perceived risk, trust, and the politics of nuclear waste.

The Department of Energy's program for disposing of high-level radioactive wastes has been impeded by overwhelming political opposition fueled by public perceptions of risk. Analysis of these perceptions shows them to be deeply rooted in images of fear and dread that have been present since the discovery of radioactivity. The development and use of nuclear weapons linked these images to reality and the mishandling of radioactive wastes from the nation's military weapons facilities has contributed toward creating a profound state of distrust that cannot be erased quickly or easily. Postponing the permanent repository and employing dry-cask storage of wastes on site would provide the time necessary for difficult social and political issues to be resolved.

The nature of technological hazard.

Technological hazards are evaluated in terms of quantitatively expressed physical, biological, and social descriptors. For each hazard a profile is constructed that considerably extends the conventional definition of risk. The profile, which is termed hazardousness, was understood in pilot experiments on perception and appeared to capture a large fraction of lay people's concern with hazard. It also suggests an orderly method for establishing priorities for the management of hazards.

Attitudes of physicians, pharmacists, and laypersons toward seriousness and need for disclosure of prescription drug side effects.

How much information should be provided to patients about prescription drug side effects? What determines the perceived seriousness of a drug side effect and how does seriousness relate to the need to inform patients about that effect? This study explored these questions in a survey of laypersons, physicians, and pharmacists. The results indicated that pain, effect on one's ability to carry out everyday activities, and threat to life were the key determinants of a side-effect's seriousness. Laypeople tended to judge most side effects as more serious than did pharmacists and physicians. Whereas the health professionals tended to want minor side effects listed only if they occur quite frequently, laypeople tended to want all potential effects listed, no matter how rarely they occur or how minor they are. The practical and political implications of these findings are discussed.

Adolescent health-threatening and health-enhancing behaviors: a study of word association and imagery.

PURPOSE: To examine the ways in which perceived risks and benefits relate to health-threatening and health-enhancing behaviors by adolescents. METHOD: The study used a word association methodology to explore adolescents' thoughts and affective feelings associated with five health-threatening behaviors (e.g., drinking beer, smoking cigarettes) and three health-enhancing behaviors (e.g., exercising, using a seat belt). RESULTS: Each behavior elicited a mix of positive and negative associations. Health-threatening behaviors had many positive associations in common, such as having fun, social facilitation, and physiological arousal. Health-enhancing behaviors had much less commonality in their positive associations. Patterns of negative associations were not highly similar across behaviors. The content and affective tone of the associations were closely linked to participation in health-threatening behaviors and health-enhancing behaviors. Participants in an activity were far more likely than nonparticipants to associate that activity with positive outcomes, concepts, and affect and less likely to produce outcomes, concepts, and affect and less likely to produce negative associations. CONCLUSIONS: The word association methodology provides a useful technique for exploring adolescents' cognitions and affective reactions with regard to health-related behaviors. The data provided by this method have implications for prevention and intervention programs, as well as for future research.

Perception of risk from automobile safety defects.

Descriptions of safety engineering defects of the kind that compel automobile manufacturers to initiate a recall campaign were evaluated by individuals on a set of risk characteristic scales that included overall vehicle riskiness, manufacturer's ability to anticipate the defect, importance for vehicle operation, severity of consequences and likelihood of compliance with a recall notice. A factor analysis of the risk characteristics indicated that judgments could be summarized in terms of two composite scales, one representing the uncontrollability of the damage the safety defect might cause and the other representing the foreseeability of the defect by the manufacturer. Motor vehicle defects were found to be highly diverse in terms of the perceived qualities of their risks. Location of individual defects within the factor space was closely associated with perceived riskiness, perceived likelihood of purchasing another car from the same manufacturer, perceived likelihood of compliance with a recall notice, and actual compliance rates.

The risk game.

In the context of health, safety, and environmental decisions, the concept of risk involves value judgments that reflect much more than just the probability and consequences of the occurrence of an event. This article conceptualizes the act of defining and assessing risk as a game in which the rules must be socially negotiated within the context of a specific problem. This contextualist view of risk provides insight into why technical approaches to risk management often fail with problems such as those involving radiation and chemicals, where scientific experts and the public disagree on the nature of the risks. It also highlights the need for allowing the interested and affected parties to define and play the game, thus emphasizing the importance of institutional, procedural, and societal processes in risk management decisions.

Evaluating chemical risks: results of a survey of the British Toxicology Society.

1. Members of the British Toxicology Society participated in a survey to determine their attitudes, beliefs, and perceptions regarding risks from chemicals. Similar surveys had previously been conducted with toxicologists and members of the general public in the United States and Canada. Data from 312 completed questionnaires were analyzed. 2. In general, the British toxicologists judged risks to be quite low for most hazards, with the exception of cigarette smoking and asbestos. They tended to have quite favorable attitudes toward the use of chemicals and were confident about the adequacy of chemical regulations. 3. As in previous studies of toxicologists, women expressed higher perceptions of risk than did men and had consistently stronger anti-chemical attitudes. 4. Toxicologists working in industry had more favorable attitudes towards chemicals and their use than did those working in academic settings. 5. When asked to evaluate chemical technical summaries of various animals studies there was considerable disagreement among the respondents about the toxicity of the chemicals involved. 6. In general, British toxicologists were equivocal about the reliability of animal studies in predicting human effects (particularly carcinogenicity) probably because of the belief that animal studies overestimate risk. However, they were rather confident that human health risks could be assessed reasonably accurately.

Do adolescent smokers know the risks?

Professor Slovic challenges Professor Viscusi by suggesting that "risk" is a term with varying meanings and the potential for misinterpretation by study participants. He distinguishes between the probability and severity of a risk, and suggests that teens who know the probability of smoking causing cancer are not aware of the severity of the experience of cancer. He goes on to note that people often perceive themselves as being less at risk than others, and observes that Professor Viscusi's study posed questions about others, instead of asking teens to assess their own risks. Thirdly, he argues that teens perceive each individual cigarette as posing a small risk even if they seem to be aware of the larger risk of smoking. Finally, since many teen smokers intend to quit, he contends, they do not see smoking as hazardous to themselves. He argues that Professor Viscusi underrates the misperception of the risks of personal addiction. Professor Slovic augments his argument with original research demonstrating that smoking teens are more likely than nonsmoking teens to perceive the short term risks of smoking as trivial.

Informing and educating the public about risk.

The objective of informing and educating the public about risk issues seems easy to attain in principle, but, in practice, may be difficult to accomplish. This paper attempts to illustrate why this is so. To be effective, risk communicators must recognize and overcome a number of obstacles that have their roots in the limitations of scientific risk assessment and the idiosyncrasies of the human mind. Doing an adequate job of communicating means finding comprehensible ways of presenting complex technical material that is clouded by uncertainty and inherently difficult to understand. The problems may not be insurmountable, however, if designers of risk information programs are sensitive to the difficulties.