Serum PRO-C3 is useful for risk prediction and fibrosis assessment in MAFLD with chronic kidney disease in an Asian cohort.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is an emerging risk factor for chronic kidney disease (CKD). N-terminal propeptide of collagen type 3 (PRO-C3) is a biomarker of advanced fibrosis in MAFLD and PRO-C3 may be involved in renal fibrosis. We aimed to use PRO-C3 measurements to generate a new algorithmic score to test the prediction of MAFLD with chronic kidney disease (MAFLD-CKD). METHODS: A derivation and independent validation cohort of 750 and 129 Asian patients with biopsy-confirmed MAFLD were included. Serum PRO-C3 concentration was measured and regression analyses were performed to examine associations with MAFLD-CKD. A derivative algorithm for MAFLD-CKD risk prediction was evaluated with receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. RESULTS: The study included two Asian cohorts (n = 180 with MAFLD-CKD; mean-eGFR: 94.93 mL/min/1.73 m2; median-urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio: 6.58 mg/mmol). PRO-C3 was associated with the severity of MAFLD-CKD and independently associated with MAFLD-CKD (adjusted odds ratio = 1.16, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.23, p < .001). A new non-invasive score (termed PERIOD) including PRO-C3 efficiently predicted MAFLD-CKD (AUROC = .842, 95% CI: .805-.875). Accuracy, specificity and negative predictive values were 80.2%, 85.1% and 88.4%, respectively. In the validation cohort, the PERIOD score had good diagnostic performance (AUROC = .807, 95% CI: .691-.893) with similar results in all patient subgroups. In the MAFLD-CKD subgroup, the accuracy for identifying advanced fibrosis was further improved by combining the PRO-C3-based ADAPT with the Agile 3+ scores (AUROC = .90, 95% CI: .836-.964). CONCLUSIONS: The PERIOD score is helpful for accurately predicting the risk of MAFLD-CKD. PRO-C3 can also be used to assess liver fibrosis in people with MAFLD-CKD.

Role of noninvasive tests in the prognostication of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

In managing metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, which affects over 30% of the general population, effective noninvasive biomarkers for assessing disease severity, monitoring disease progression, predicting the development of liver-related complications, and assessing treatment response are crucial. The advantage of simple fibrosis scores lies in their widespread accessibility through routinely performed blood tests and extensive validation in different clinical settings. They have shown reasonable accuracy in diagnosing advanced fibrosis and good performance in excluding the majority of patients with a low risk of liver-related complications. Among patients with elevated serum fibrosis scores, a more specific fibrosis and imaging biomarker has proved useful to accurately identify patients at risk of liver-related complications. Among specific fibrosis blood biomarkers, enhanced liver fibrosis is the most widely utilized and has been approved in the United States as a prognostic biomarker. For imaging biomarkers, the availability of vibration-controlled transient elastography has been largely improved over the past years, enabling the use of liver stiffness measurement (LSM) for accurate assessment of significant and advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis. Combining LSM with other routinely available blood tests enhances the ability to diagnose at-risk metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis; and predict liver-related complications, some reaching an accuracy comparable to that of liver biopsy. Magnetic resonance imaging-based modalities provide the most accurate quantification of liver fibrosis, though the current utilization is limited to research settings. Expanding their future use in clinical practice depends on factors such as cost and facility availability.

Risk and predictors of hepatic decompensation in grey zone patients by the Baveno VII criteria: A competing risk analysis.

BACKGROUND: Baveno VII was proposed for non-invasive identification of clinically significant portal hypertension. However, a substantial proportion of patients is classified in the grey zone (i.e., liver stiffness 15-24.9 kPa and/or platelet count <150 × 109 /L). AIMS: To evaluate the risk and predictors of hepatic decompensation in patients in the grey zone, and to determine the prognostic role of spleen stiffness measurement. METHODS: We included prospective cohorts (from Hong Kong, Korea and France) of patients who had undergone transient elastography examination for chronic liver disease. We estimated risk of hepatic decompensation using competing risk regression with hepatocellular carcinoma and non-liver-related death as competing events. RESULTS: We identified 2763 patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). There were 1243 (44.9%) and 536 (19.4%) patients in the Baveno VII grey zone and high-risk groups, respectively. The cumulative incidence of decompensation at 5 years was significantly different among low-risk (0.6% [95% CI: 0.2%-1.3%]), grey zone 4.2% (95% CI: 3.1%-5.4%) and high-risk groups (11.4% [95% CI: 8.7%-14.6%]). By competing risk analysis, aetiology of liver disease (alcohol-related liver disease), albumin-bilirubin score and alkaline phosphatase level were independently associated with decompensation among patients in the grey zone. The combination of Baveno VII and spleen stiffness significantly reduced patients classified into grey zone (12.8% in cACLD patients), while maintaining high discrimination of decompensation in low- and high-risk groups. CONCLUSIONS: Patients in grey zone of Baveno VII criteria remain at high risk of hepatic decompensation. Clinical risk factors and spleen stiffness can further stratify the risk in such patients.