Comparing six cardiovascular risk prediction models in Haiti: implications for identifying high-risk individuals for primary prevention.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are rapidly increasing in low-middle income countries (LMICs). Accurate risk assessment is essential to reduce premature CVD by targeting primary prevention and risk factor treatment among high-risk groups. Available CVD risk prediction models are built on predominantly Caucasian risk profiles from high-income country populations, and have not been evaluated in LMIC populations. We aimed to compare six existing models for predicted 10-year risk of CVD and identify high-risk groups for targeted prevention and treatment in Haiti. METHODS: We used cross-sectional data within the Haiti CVD Cohort Study, including 1345 adults ≥ 40 years without known history of CVD and with complete data. Six CVD risk prediction models were compared: pooled cohort equations (PCE), adjusted PCE with updated cohorts, Framingham CVD Lipids, Framingham CVD Body Mass Index (BMI), WHO Lipids, and WHO BMI. Risk factors were measured during clinical exams. Primary outcome was continuous and categorical predicted 10-year CVD risk. Secondary outcome was statin eligibility. RESULTS: Sixty percent were female, 66.8% lived on a daily income of ≤ 1 USD, 52.9% had hypertension, 14.9% had hypercholesterolemia, 7.8% had diabetes mellitus, 4.0% were current smokers, and 2.5% had HIV. Predicted 10-year CVD risk ranged from 3.6% in adjusted PCE (IQR 1.7-8.2) to 9.6% in Framingham-BMI (IQR 4.9-18.0), and Spearman rank correlation coefficients ranged from 0.86 to 0.98. The percent of the cohort categorized as high risk using model specific thresholds ranged from 1.8% using the WHO-BMI model to 41.4% in the PCE model (χ2 = 1416, p value < 0.001). Statin eligibility also varied widely. CONCLUSIONS: In the Haiti CVD Cohort, there was substantial variation in the proportion identified as high-risk and statin eligible using existing models, leading to very different treatment recommendations and public health implications depending on which prediction model is chosen. There is a need to design and validate CVD risk prediction tools for low-middle income countries that include locally relevant risk factors. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov NCT03892265 .

The Haiti cardiovascular disease cohort: study protocol for a population-based longitudinal cohort.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality among Haitians, having surpassed HIV in the last decade. Understanding the natural history of CVD in Haitians, including the age of onset, prevalence, incidence, and role of major risk factors and social determinants, is urgently needed to develop prevention and treatment interventions. Aim 1: Establish a population-based cohort of 3000 adults from Port-au-Prince and assess the prevalence of CVD risk factors and diseases and their association with social and environmental determinants. Aim 2: Determine the incidence of CVD risk factors and CVD during 2-3.5 years of follow-up and their association with social and environmental determinants. METHODS: The Haiti CVD Cohort is a longitudinal observational study of 3000 adults > 18 years in Port-au-Prince (PAP), Haiti. The study population is recruited using multistage random sampling from census blocks. Adults receive blood pressure (BP) measurements in the community and those with elevated BP are referred to the Groupe Haitien d'Etude Sarcome de Kaposi et des Infections Opportunistes Clinic for care. After informed consent, participants undergo a clinical exam with medical history. BP, electrocardiogram, echocardiogram, a study questionnaire on health behaviors, and laboratory specimens. Every 6 months, BP is remeasured. At 12 and 24 months, clinical exams and questionnaires are repeated. Labs are repeated at 24 months. Adjudicated study outcomes include the prevalence and incidence of CVD risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, obesity, dyslipidemia, kidney disease, inflammation, poor diet, smoking, and physical inactivity) and events (myocardial infarction, heart failure, stroke, and CVD mortality). We also measure social determinants including poverty. Depression, stress, social isolation, food insecurity, and lead exposure. Blood, urine, and stool samples are biobanked at study enrollment. DISCUSSION: The Haiti CVD Cohort is the largest population-based cohort study evaluating CVD risk factors and CVD among adults in urban Haiti with the goal of understanding the drivers of the CVD epidemic in Haiti. Study outcomes are comparable with existing international cohorts, and the biobank will provide important data for future research. Our goal is to translate findings from this study into pragmatic prevention and treatment interventions to fight the CVD epidemic in Haiti.

High Dietary Sodium, Measured Using Spot Urine Samples, is Associated with Higher Blood Pressure among Young Adults in Haiti.

Background: Hypertension (HTN) is the leading cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor in Haiti and is likely driven by poverty-related social and dietary factors. Salt consumption in Haiti is hypothesized to be high but has never been rigorously quantified. Methods: We used spot urine samples from a subset of participants in the population-based Haiti Cardiovascular Disease Cohort to estimate population mean daily sodium intake. We compared three previously validated formulas for estimating dietary sodium intake using urine sodium, urine creatinine, age, sex, height, and weight. We explored the association between dietary sodium intake and blood pressure, stratified by age group. Results: A total of 1,240 participants had spot urine samples. Median age was 38 years (range 18-93), and 48% were female. The mean dietary sodium intake was 3.5-5.0 g/day across the three estimation methods, with 94.2%-97.9% of participants consuming above the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended maximum of 2 g/day of sodium. Among young adults aged 18-29, increasing salt intake from the lowest quartile of consumption (<3.73 g/day) to the highest quartile (>5.88 g/day) was associated with a mean 8.71 mmHg higher systolic blood pressure (SBP) (95% confidence interval: 3.35, 14.07; p = 0.001). An association was not seen in older age groups. Among participants under age 40, those with SBP ≥120 mmHg consumed 0.5 g/day more sodium than those with SBP <120 mmHg (95% confidence interval: 0.08, 0.69; p = 0.012). Conclusions: Nine out of 10 Haitian adults in our study population consumed more than the WHO recommended maximum for daily sodium intake. In young adults, higher sodium consumption was associated with higher SBP. This represents an inflection point for increased HTN risk early in the life course and points to dietary salt intake as a potential modifiable risk factor for primordial and primary CVD prevention in young adults.

Hypertension continuum of care: Blood pressure screening, diagnosis, treatment, and control in a population-based cohort in Haiti.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the number one cause of death in low-income countries including Haiti, with hypertension (HTN) being the leading risk factor. This study aims to identify gaps in the HTN continuum of screening, diagnosis, treatment, and blood pressure (BP) control. Sociodemographic and clinical data were collected from a population-based sample of adults ≥18 years in Port-au-Prince (PAP) from March 2019 to April 2021. HTN was defined as systolic BP ≥ 140 mmHg, diastolic BP ≥ 90 mmHg, or use of antihypertensive medication. Screening was defined as ever having had a BP measurement; diagnosis as previously being informed of a HTN diagnosis; treatment as having taken antihypertensives in the past 2 weeks; and controlled as taking antihypertensives and having BP < 140/90 mmHg. Factors associated with attaining each step in the continuum were assessed using Poisson multivariable regressions. Among 2737 participants, 810 (29% age-standardized) had HTN, of whom 97% had been screened, 72% diagnosed, 45% treated, and 13% controlled. There were no significant differences across age groups or sex. Obesity (BMI ≥ 30) was a significant factor associated with receiving treatment compared to normal weight (BMI < 25), with a prevalence ratio (PR) of 1.5 (95% CI 1.1-2.0). Having secondary or higher education was associated with higher likelihood of controlled BP (PR 1.9 [95% CI 1.1-3.3]). In this urban Haitian population, the greatest gaps in HTN care are treatment and control. Targeted interventions are needed to improve these steps, including broader access to affordable treatment, timely distribution of medications, and patient adherence to HTN medication.

High prevalence of obesity among women in urban Haiti: Findings from a population-based cohort.

Introduction: Obesity is associated with increased risk of non-communicable diseases and death and is increasing rapidly in low- and middle-income countries, including Haiti. There is limited population-based data on body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) and associated risk factors in Haiti. This study describes BMI and WC, and factors associated with obesity using a population-based cohort from Port-au-Prince. Methods: Baseline sociodemographic and clinical data were collected from participants in the Haiti CVD Cohort Study between March 2019 and August 2021. Weight was categorized by BMI (kg/m2) with obesity defined as ≥30 kg/m2. Abdominal obesity was defined using WC cutoffs of ≥80 cm for women and ≥94 cm for men based on WHO guidelines. Sociodemographic and behavioral risk factors, including age, sex, educational attainment, income, smoking status, physical activity, fat/oil use, daily fruit/vegetable consumption, and frequency of fried food intake were assessed for their association with obesity using a Poisson multivariable regression. Results: Among 2,966 participants, median age was 41 years (IQR: 28-55) and 57.6% were women. Median BMI was 24.0 kg/m2 (IQR: 20.9-28.1) and 508 (17.1%) participants were obese. Women represented 89.2% of the population with BMI ≥30 kg/m2. A total of 1,167 (68.3%) women had WC ≥80 cm and 144 (11.4%) men had WC ≥94 cm. BMI ≥30 kg/m2 was significantly more prevalent among women than men [PR 5.7; 95% CI: (4.3-7.6)], those 40-49 years compared to 18-29 years [PR 3.3; 95% CI: (2.4-4.6)], and those with income >10 USD per day compared to ≤1 USD [PR 1.3; 95% CI: (1.0-1.6)]. There were no significant associations with other health and behavioral risk factors. Discussion: In Haiti, women have an alarming 6-fold higher obesity prevalence compared to men (26.5 vs. 4.3%) and 89.2% of participants with obesity were women. Abdominal obesity was high, at 44.3%. Haiti faces a paradox of an ongoing national food insecurity crises and a burgeoning obesity epidemic. Individual, social, and environmental drivers of obesity, especially among women, need to be identified.

Dietary Risk Factors for Cardiovascular Disease among Low-Income Haitian Adults: Findings from a Population-Based Cohort.

Poor diets are responsible for a large burden of noncommunicable disease (NCD). The prevalence of modifiable dietary risk factors is rising in lower-income countries such as Haiti, along with increasing urbanization and shifts to diets high in sugar, salt, and fat. We describe self-reported dietary patterns (intake of fruits, vegetables, fried food, sugar-sweetened beverages, and added salt and oil) among a population-based cohort of low-income adults in Port-au-Prince and assess for associated sociodemographic factors (age, sex, income, education, body mass index). Among 2989 participants, the median age was 40 years, and 58.0% were women. Less than 1% met the World Health Organization recommendation of at least five servings/day of fruits and vegetables. Participants consumed fried food on average 1.6 days/week and sugar-sweetened beverages on average 4.7 days/week; young males of low socioeconomic status were the most likely to consume these dietary risk factors. The vast majority of participants reported usually or often consuming salt (87.1%) and oil (86.5%) added to their meals eaten at home. Our findings underscore the need for public health campaigns, particularly those targeting young males and household cooks preparing family meals at home, to improve dietary patterns in Haiti in order to address the growing NCD burden.

High Lead Exposure Associated With Higher Blood Pressure in Haiti: a Warning Sign for Low-Income Countries.

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in lower-income countries including Haiti. Environmental lead exposure is associated with high blood pressure and cardiovascular mortality in high-income countries but has not been systematically measured and evaluated as a potential modifiable cardiovascular risk factor in lower-income countries where 6.5 billion people reside. We hypothesized lead exposure is high in urban Haiti and associated with higher blood pressure levels. Blood lead levels were measured in 2504 participants ≥18 years enrolled in a longitudinal population-based cohort study in Port-au-Prince. Lead screening was conducted using LeadCare II (detection limit ≥3.3 µg/dL). Levels below detection were imputed by dividing the level of detection by √2. Associations between lead (quartiles) and systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure were assessed, adjusting for age, sex, obesity, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, income, and antihypertensive medication use. The median age of participants was 40 years and 60.1% were female. The geometric mean blood lead level was 4.73µg/dL, 71.1% had a detectable lead level and 42.3% had a blood lead level ≥5 µg/dL. After multivariable adjustment, lead levels in quartile four (≥6.5 µg/dL) compared with quartile 1 (<3.4 µg/dL) were associated with 2.42 mm Hg (95% CI, 0.36-4.49) higher systolic blood pressure and 1.96 mm Hg (95% CI, 0.56-3.37) higher diastolic blood pressure. In conclusion, widespread environmental lead exposure is evident in urban Haiti, with higher lead levels associated with higher systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Lead is a current and potentially modifiable pollutant in lower-income countries that warrants urgent public health remediation. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT03892265.

Polypill for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease prevention in Haiti: Eligibility estimates in a low-income country.

Background: Multidrug therapy is a World Health Organization "best buy" for the prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases. CVD polypills, including ≥2 blood pressure medications, and a statin with or without aspirin, are an effective, scalable strategy to close the treatment gap that exists in many low- and middle-income countries, including Haiti. We estimated the number of Haitian adults eligible for an atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) polypill, and the number of potentially preventable CVD events if polypills were implemented nationally. Methods: We used cross-sectional data from the Haiti CVD Cohort, a population-based cohort of 3,005 adults ≥18 years in Port-au-Prince, to compare two polypill implementation strategies: high-risk primary prevention and secondary prevention. High-risk primary prevention included three scenarios: (a) age ≥40 years, (b) hypertension, or (c) predicted 10-year ASCVD risk ≥7.5%. Secondary prevention eligibility included history of stroke or myocardial infarction. We then used the 2019 Global Burden of Disease database and published polypill trials to estimate preventable CVD events, defined as nonfatal MI, nonfatal stroke, and cardiovascular death over a 5-year timeline. Results: Among 2,880 participants, the proportion of eligible adults for primary prevention were: 51.6% for age, 32.5% for hypertension, 19.3% for high ASCVD risk, and 5.8% for secondary prevention. Based on current trends, an estimated 462,509 CVD events (95% CI: 369,089-578,475) would occur among adults ≥40 years in Haiti from 2019-2024. Compared with no polypill therapy, we found 32% or 148,003 CVD events (95% CI: 70,126-248,744) could be prevented by a combined primary and secondary prevention approach in Haiti if polypills were fully implemented over 5 years. Conclusion: These modeling estimates underscore the potential magnitude of preventable CVD events in low-income settings like Haiti. Model calibration using observed CVD events, costs, and implementation assumptions are future directions. Clinical trial registration: clinicaltrials.gov, identifier: NCT03892265.

Neighborhood cohesion and violence in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and their relationship to stress, depression, and hypertension: Findings from the Haiti cardiovascular disease cohort study.

Neighborhood factors have been associated with health outcomes, but this relationship is underexplored in low-income countries like Haiti. We describe perceived neighborhood cohesion and perceived violence using the Neighborhood Collective Efficacy and the City Stress Inventory scores. We hypothesized lower cohesion and higher violence were associated with higher stress, depression, and hypertension. We collected data from a population-based cohort of adults in Port-au-Prince, Haiti between March 2019 to August 2021, including stress (Perceived Stress Scale), depression (PHQ-9), and blood pressure (BP). Hypertension was defined as systolic BP ≥ 140 mmHg, diastolic BP ≥ 90 mmHg, or on antihypertensive medications. Covariates that were adjusted for included age, sex, body mass index, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, diet, income, and education, multivariable linear and Poisson regressions assessed the relationship between exposures and outcomes. Among 2,961 adults, 58.0% were female and median age was 40 years (IQR:28-55). Participants reported high cohesion (median 15/25, IQR:14-17) and moderate violence (9/20, IQR:7-11). Stress was moderate (8/16) and 12.6% had at least moderate depression (PHQ-9 ≥ 11). Median systolic BP was 118 mmHg, median diastolic BP 72 mmHg, and 29.2% had hypertension. In regressions, higher violence was associated with higher prevalence ratios of moderate-to-severe depression (Tertile3 vs Tertile1: PR 1.12, 95%CI:1.09 to 1.16) and stress (+0.3 score, 95%CI:0.01 to 0.6) but not hypertension. Cohesion was associated with lower stress (Tertile3 vs Tertile1: -0.4 score, 95%CI: -0.7 to -0.2) but not depression or hypertension. In summary, urban Haitians reported high perceived cohesion and moderate violence, with higher violence associated with higher stress and depression.

The relationship between perceived stress and support with blood pressure in urban Haiti: A cross-sectional analysis.

Haiti is a low-income country whose population lives under repeated and chronic stress from multiple natural disasters, civil unrest, and extreme poverty. Stress has been associated with cardiovascular (CVD) risk factors including hypertension, and the impact of stress on blood pressure may be moderated by support. The distribution of stress, support, and their association with blood pressure has not been well described in low-income countries. We measured stress and support using validated instruments on cross-sectional enrollment data of a population-based cohort of 2,817 adults living in Port-au-Prince, Haiti between March 2019 and April 2021. Stress was measured using the Perceived Stress Scale, while support was measured using the Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support. Continuous scores were categorized into three groups for stress (low (1-5), moderate (6-10), high (11-16), and five groups for support (low (7-21), low-moderate (22-35), moderate (36-49), moderate-high (50-64), high (65-77)). Linear regression models were used to quantify the associations between: 1) support and stress adjusting for age and sex, and 2) stress and blood pressure adjusting for age and sex. A moderation analysis was conducted to assess if support moderated the relationship between stress and blood pressure. The cohort included 59.7% females and the median age was 40 years (IQR 28-55). The majority had an income <1 US dollar per day. The median stress score was moderate (8 out of 16 points, IQR 6-10), and median support score was moderate to high (61 out of 77 points, IQR 49-71). Stress was higher with older ages (60+ years versus 18-29 years: +0.79 points, 95% CI 0.51 to 1.08) and in females (+0.85 points, 95% CI +0.65 to +1.06). Support was higher in males (+3.29 points, 95% CI 2.19 to 4.39). Support was inversely associated with stress, adjusting for age and sex (-0.04 points per one unit increase in support, 95% CI -0.04 to -0.03). Stress was not associated with systolic or diastolic blood pressure after adjustment for age and sex. Support did not moderate the association between stress and blood pressure. In this urban cohort of Haitian adults living with chronic civil instability and extreme poverty, perceived levels of stress and social support were moderate and high, respectively. Contrary to prior literature, we did not find an association between stress and blood pressure. While support was associated with lower stress, it did not moderate the relationship between stress and blood pressure. Participants reported high levels of support, which may be an underutilized resource in reducing stress, potentially impacting health behaviors and outcomes.

Diabetes Epidemiology Among Adults in Port-au-Prince, Haiti: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Introduction: Diabetes mellitus is a chronic noncommunicable disease associated with death and major disability, with increasing prevalence in low- and middle-income countries. There is limited population-based data about diabetes in Haiti. The objective of this study was to assess the prevalence of diabetes and associated factors among adults in Port-au-Prince, Haiti using a population-based cohort. Methods: This study analyzes cross-sectional enrollment data from the population-based Haiti Cardiovascular Disease Cohort Study, conducted using multistage sampling with global positioning system waypoints in census blocks in the metropolitan area of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. A total of 3,005 adults ≥18 years old were enrolled from March 2019 to August 2021. We collected socio-demographic data, health-related behaviors, and clinical data using standardized questionnaires. Diabetes was defined as any of the following criteria: enrollment fasting glucose value ≥ 126 mg/dL or non-fasting glucose ≥ 200 mg/dL, patient self-report of taking diabetes medications, or study physician diagnosis of diabetes based on clinical evaluation. Results: Among 2985 (99.3%) with complete diabetes data, median age was 40 years, 58.1% were female, and 17.2% were obese. The prevalence of diabetes was 5.4% crude, and 5.2% age standardized. In unadjusted analysis, older age, higher body mass index (BMI), low physical activity, low education were associated with a higher odds of diabetes. After multivariable logistic regression, older age [60+ vs 18-29, Odds Ratio (OR)17.7, 95% CI 6.6 to 47.9] and higher BMI (obese vs normal/underweight, OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.7 to 4.4) remained statistically significantly associated with higher odds of diabetes. Conclusion: The prevalence of diabetes was relatively low among adults in Port-au-Prince, but much higher among certain groups (participants who were older and obese). The Haitian health system should be strengthened to prevent, diagnose, and treat diabetes among high-risk groups.

Treatment of early hypertension among persons living with HIV in Haiti: Protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: People living with HIV (PLWH) are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and death, with greater burdens of both HIV and CVD in lower-middle income countries. Treating prehypertension in PLWH may reduce progression to hypertension, CVD risk and potentially mortality. However, no trial has evaluated earlier blood pressure treatment for PLWH. We propose a randomized controlled trial to assess the feasibility, benefits, and risks of initiating antihypertensive treatment among PLWH with prehypertension, comparing prehypertension treatment to standard of care following current WHO guidelines. METHODS: A total of 250 adults 18-65 years and living with HIV (PLWH) with viral suppression in the past 12 months, who have prehypertension will be randomized to prehypertension treatment versus standard of care. Prehypertension is defined as having a systolic blood pressure (SBP) 120-139 mmHg or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) 80-89 mmHg. In the prehypertension treatment arm, participants will initiate amlodipine 5 mg daily immediately. In the standard of care arm, participants will initiate amlodipine only if they develop hypertension defined as SBP ≥ 140 mmHg or DBP ≥ 90 mmHg. The primary outcome is the difference in mean change of SBP from enrollment to 12 months. Secondary outcomes include feasibility, acceptability, adverse effects, HIV viral suppression, and medication adherence. Qualitative in-depth interviews with providers and participants will explore attitudes about initiating amlodipine, satisfaction, perceived CVD risk, and implementation challenges. DISCUSSION: PLWH have a higher CVD risk and may benefit from a lower BP threshold for initiation of antihypertensive treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov registration number NCT04692467, registration date December 15, 2020, protocol ID 20-03021735.