Development and validation of a colon cancer risk assessment tool for patients undergoing colonoscopy.

OBJECTIVES: Diagnostic criteria for hereditary colorectal cancer (CRC) are complex. "Open-access" colonoscopy makes it challenging to identify who needs genetic evaluation, intensive surveillance, and screening for extracolonic tumors. Our aim was to develop a simple, preprocedural risk assessment tool to identify who may be at highest risk for CRC. METHODS: A total of 631 outpatients undergoing colonoscopy at two academic practices completed a questionnaire assessing personal and family histories of CRC, polyps, and Lynch syndrome (LS)-associated malignancies. Subjects were considered to be high-risk if one of the nine prespecified characteristics of hereditary CRC syndromes was met. Through recursive partitioning analysis, an algorithm of fewest questions needed to capture the most high-risk individuals was developed. The results were validated in 5,335 individuals undergoing colonoscopy at five private endoscopy centers and tested in 285 carriers of mismatch repair mutations associated with LS. RESULTS: About 17.7% and 20.0% of individuals were classified as high-risk in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Recursive partitioning revealed three questions that were most informative for identifying high-risk patients: (i) "Do you have a first-degree relative with CRC or LS-related cancer diagnosed before age 50?" (ii) "Have you had CRC or polyps diagnosed before age 50?" (iii) "Do you have > or =3 relatives with CRC?" When asked successively, these questions identified 77% of high-risk individuals in both cohorts and 271 of 285 (95%) of mutation carriers. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately one in five individuals undergoing colonoscopy would benefit from further risk assessment. We developed a simple, three-question CRC Risk Assessment Tool to identify the majority of patients who require additional assessment and possible genetic evaluation.

Prediction of MLH1 and MSH2 mutations in Lynch syndrome.

CONTEXT: Lynch syndrome is caused primarily by mutations in the mismatch repair genes MLH1 and MSH2. OBJECTIVES: To analyze MLH1/MSH2 mutation prevalence in a large cohort of patients undergoing genetic testing and to develop a clinical model to predict the likelihood of finding a mutation in at-risk patients. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Personal and family history were obtained for 1914 unrelated probands who submitted blood samples starting in the year 2000 for full gene sequencing of MLH1/MSH2. Genetic analysis was performed using a combination of sequence analysis and Southern blotting. A multivariable model was developed using logistic regression in an initial cohort of 898 individuals and subsequently prospectively validated in 1016 patients. The complex model that we have named PREMM(1,2) (Prediction of Mutations in MLH1 and MSH2) was developed into a Web-based tool that incorporates personal and family history of cancer and adenomas. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Deleterious mutations in MLH1/MSH2 genes. RESULTS: Overall, 14.5% of the probands (130/898) carried a pathogenic mutation (MLH1, 6.5%; MSH2, 8.0%) in the development cohort and 15.3% (155/1016) in the validation cohort, with 42 (27%) of the latter being large rearrangements. Strong predictors of mutations included proband characteristics (presence of colorectal cancer, especially > or =2 separate diagnoses, or endometrial cancer) and family history (especially the number of first-degree relatives with colorectal or endometrial cancer). Age at diagnosis was particularly important for colorectal cancer. The multivariable model discriminated well at external validation, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.84). CONCLUSIONS: Personal and family history characteristics can accurately predict the outcome of genetic testing in a large population at risk of Lynch syndrome. The PREMM(1,2) model provides clinicians with an objective, easy-to-use tool to estimate the likelihood of finding mutations in the MLH1/MSH2 genes and may guide the strategy for molecular evaluation.

Missed adenomas during colonoscopic surveillance in individuals with Lynch Syndrome (hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Lynch syndrome (also known as hereditary nonpolyposis colon cancer) is associated with an increased risk for colorectal cancer, which can arise despite frequent colonoscopic exams. We evaluated the adenoma miss rate of conventional colonoscopy in patients with Lynch syndrome, and compared the sensitivity of chromoendoscopy versus intensive inspection for detecting polyps missed by conventional colonoscopy. METHODS: Fifty-four subjects with Lynch syndrome underwent tandem colonoscopies at four centers of the Great Lakes-New England Clinical Epidemiology and Validation Center of the Early Detection Research Network. All participants first had a conventional colonoscopy with removal of all visualized polyps. The second endoscopy was randomly assigned as either pancolonic indigo carmine chromoendoscopy or standard colonoscopy with intensive inspection lasting >20 minutes. Size, histology, and number of polyps detected on each exam were recorded. RESULTS: After undergoing standard colonoscopy, 28 individuals were randomized to a second exam with chromoendoscopy and 26 underwent intensive inspection. The mean interval since last colonoscopy was 17.5 months. Seventeen polyps (10 adenomas and 7 hyperplastic polyps) were identified on the first standard colonoscopies. Twenty-three additional polyps (12 adenomas and 11 hyperplastic polyps) were found on the second exams, yielding an adenoma miss rate of 55%. Fifteen polyps (5 adenomas and 10 hyperplastic polyps) were found in subjects who had chromoendoscopy and 8 polyps (7 adenomas and 1 hyperplastic polyp) in those who had intensive inspection. Chromoendoscopy was associated with more normal tissue biopsies (11 versus 5) and longer procedure times compared with intensive inspection (29.8 +/- 9.5 versus 25.3 +/- 5.8 minutes; P = 0.04). Controlling for age, number of previous colonoscopies, procedure time, and prior colonic resection, chromoendoscopy detected more polyps (P = 0.04), but adenoma detection was not significantly different compared with intensive inspection (P = 0.27). CONCLUSIONS: Small adenomas are frequently missed in patients with Lynch syndrome. Although chromoendoscopy did not detect more missed adenomas than intensive inspection in this pilot study, larger trials are needed to determine optimal surveillance techniques in this high-risk population.

Chromoendoscopy detects more adenomas than colonoscopy using intensive inspection without dye spraying.

Conventional colonoscopy misses some neoplastic lesions. We compared the sensitivity of chromoendoscopy and colonoscopy with intensive inspection for detecting adenomatous polyps missed by conventional colonoscopy. Fifty subjects with a history of colorectal cancer or adenomas underwent tandem colonoscopies at one of five centers of the Great Lakes New England Clinical Epidemiology and Validation Center of the Early Detection Research Network. The first exam was a conventional colonoscopy with removal of all visualized polyps. The second exam was randomly assigned as either pan-colonic indigocarmine chromoendoscopy or standard colonoscopy with intensive inspection lasting >20 minutes. Size, histology, and numbers of polyps detected on each exam were recorded. Twenty-seven subjects were randomized to a second exam with chromoendoscopy and 23 underwent intensive inspection. Forty adenomas were identified on the first standard colonoscopies. The second colonoscopies detected 24 additional adenomas: 19 were found using chromoendoscopy and 5 were found using intensive inspection. Chromoendoscopy found additional adenomas in more subjects than did intensive inspection (44% versus 17%) and identified significantly more missed adenomas per subject (0.7 versus 0.2, P < 0.01). Adenomas detected with chromoendoscopy were significantly smaller (mean size 2.66 +/- 0.97 mm) and were more often right-sided. Chromoendoscopy was associated with more normal tissue biopsies and longer procedure times than intensive inspection. After controlling for procedure time, chromoendoscopy detected more adenomas and hyperplastic polyps compared with colonoscopy using intensive inspection alone. Chromoendoscopy detected more polyps missed by standard colonoscopy than did intensive inspection. The clinical significance of these small missed lesions warrants further study.

Data reduction for prediction: a case study on robust coding of age and family history for the risk of having a genetic mutation.

Data reduction is often desired in the development of a prediction model, for example for effects of age and family history in the identification of subjects having a genetic mutation. We aimed to evaluate a strategy for model simplification by robust coding of related predictors. We considered 898 patients suspected of having Lynch syndrome, which is caused primarily by mutations in the mismatch repair genes, MLH1 or MSH2. The presence of colorectal cancer (CRC) and endometrial cancer in patients and their relatives was related to mutation prevalence with logistic regression analysis. The performances of simplified and more complex models were quantified with a concordance statistic (c), which was corrected for optimism by cross-validation and bootstrapping. External validation was performed in 1016 patients. The first challenge was the coding of age at diagnosis of CRC, where we forced effects to be identical in patients, in 1st degree and in 2nd degree relatives, by taking the sum of the ages at diagnosis. As a further simplification, CRC diagnosis in 2nd degree relatives was weighted half that of 1st degree relatives. These data reduction approaches were also followed for endometrial cancer. The simplified model used 7 instead of 17 degrees of freedom (df) for a more complex model incorporating individual predictor effects. The optimism-corrected c was higher (0.79 instead of 0.77), but the external c was similar (0.78 for the simplified and more complex models). A stepwise selected model performed slightly worse (external c=0.77). In conclusion, a prediction model could be developed with relatively few df that captured effects of age at diagnosis across patients and relatives per type of cancer in the family. Such robust coding may especially be relevant for modeling in relatively small data sets.

Prevalence of early onset colorectal cancer in 397 patients with classic Li-Fraumeni syndrome.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hereditary colorectal cancer is associated most commonly with the hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer or familial adenomatous polyposis syndromes. We investigated the prevalence of early onset colorectal cancer and the frequency of p53 germline mutations in 64 families from a Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS) registry. METHODS: Patients with documented colorectal cancer and a diagnosis at or before age 50 were included. P53 analyses were performed through germline mutational analyses using standard molecular techniques. RESULTS: Among the 397 patients and 64 families in the classic LFS registry, a total of 11 patients (2.8%) from 10 different families (15.6%) met criteria for classic LFS and had documented colorectal cancer at less than 50 years of age. The mean age at diagnosis in this group was 33 years and of these patients 4 developed colorectal cancer before age 21 (ages, 9, 11, 15, and 20 y). All families that were tested for p53 mutations (8 of 10) had evidence of germline mutations by sequence analysis; therefore, 12.5% of the total number of families in the registry had colorectal cancer at age less than 50 years and a documented germline p53 mutation. Mutations primarily were missense or nonsense and were located between exons 4-10. CONCLUSIONS: LFS patients with germline p53 mutations may have an increased susceptibility to colorectal cancer and present up to several decades earlier than the general population. LFS should be considered when a young patient presents with colorectal cancer.

Determinants of colorectal cancer screening in women undergoing mammography.

OBJECTIVES: Women who participate in screening for breast cancer are more likely to participate in screening for colorectal cancer. We studied such a motivated group of women to identify predictors of, and barriers to, participation in colorectal cancer screening by endoscopy. METHODS: We distributed surveys to 551 women > or = 50 yr of age while they were awaiting mammography at four sites in and around Boston, MA from June to September, 2000. The 40-question survey assessed knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs about, and behaviors toward, breast and colorectal cancer screening. Regression models were used to determine factors associated with having had sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy. RESULTS: Seventy-nine percent of the women completed all or part of the survey. Half (221/438) reported ever having had sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy. Of these, 93% did so at the recommendation of their primary care provider. Factors associated with participation in endoscopic screening included compliance with annual fecal occult blood testing, a family history of colorectal cancer, and indifference toward the gender of the doctor performing the endoscopy. CONCLUSIONS: Women undergoing mammography overwhelmingly cite the recommendation of their primary care provider as the reason for participating in colorectal cancer screening by endoscopy. Women who preferred a female endoscopist were less likely to have been screened. Whenever possible, primary care providers should offer women the choice of a female endoscopist for colorectal cancer screening.