Development and internal validation of the multivariable CIPHER (Collaborative Integrated Pregnancy High-dependency Estimate of Risk) clinical risk prediction model.

BACKGROUND: Intensive care unit (ICU) outcome prediction models, such as Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE), were designed in general critical care populations and their use in obstetric populations is contentious. The aim of the CIPHER (Collaborative Integrated Pregnancy High-dependency Estimate of Risk) study was to develop and internally validate a multivariable prognostic model calibrated specifically for pregnant or recently delivered women admitted for critical care. METHODS: A retrospective observational cohort was created for this study from 13 tertiary facilities across five high-income and six low- or middle-income countries. Women admitted to an ICU for more than 24 h during pregnancy or less than 6 weeks post-partum from 2000 to 2012 were included in the cohort. A composite primary outcome was defined as maternal death or need for organ support for more than 7 days or acute life-saving intervention. Model development involved selection of candidate predictor variables based on prior evidence of effect, availability across study sites, and use of LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) model building after multiple imputation using chained equations to address missing data for variable selection. The final model was estimated using multivariable logistic regression. Internal validation was completed using bootstrapping to correct for optimism in model performance measures of discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: Overall, 127 out of 769 (16.5%) women experienced an adverse outcome. Predictors included in the final CIPHER model were maternal age, surgery in the preceding 24 h, systolic blood pressure, Glasgow Coma Scale score, serum sodium, serum potassium, activated partial thromboplastin time, arterial blood gas (ABG) pH, serum creatinine, and serum bilirubin. After internal validation, the model maintained excellent discrimination (area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) 0.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81 to 0.84) and good calibration (slope of 0.92, 95% CI 0.91 to 0.92 and intercept of -0.11, 95% CI -0.13 to -0.08). CONCLUSIONS: The CIPHER model has the potential to be a pragmatic risk prediction tool. CIPHER can identify critically ill pregnant women at highest risk for adverse outcomes, inform counseling of patients about risk, and facilitate bench-marking of outcomes between centers by adjusting for baseline risk.

A prediction model of risk factors for complications among SARS-CoV2 positive patients: Cases from Jordan.

BACKGROUND: The number of COVID-19 infected patients has been soaring in the Middle East countries. The disease poses a significant threat, decisions about prioritizing care should be made in accordance with the proven risk factors for complications. OBJECTIVE: The present study provides the first bespoke prediction model in the Middle East to identify COVID-19 patients, who are at higher risk for complications. METHOD: A case-control study design was adopted to compare the characteristics of successfully recovered patients with those who had complications. Complications were defined as admission to the intensive care unit, mechanical ventilation, sepsis or septic shock, pneumonia or respiratory failure, and death. The prediction model was created through multivariable logistic regression. Overall statistical significance tests for the model were carried out. RESULTS: All COVID-19 infected hospitalized patients (n = 133) in Amman - Jordan were included in the study. Successfully recovered were 125 patients. The median age (IRQ) was 26 (10-40). Almost 30% were >40 years. Patients with complications were eight patients, age 63 (51.5-71.5). The prediction model identified the following variables as risk factors: diabetes (OR = 59.7; 95% CI: 3.5-1011.5, p = 0.005), fever (OR = 24.8; 95% CI: 1.4-447.3, p = 0.029), SHORTNESS OF BREATH (OR = 15.9; 95% CI: 1.3-189.7, p = 0.029), body mass index (OR = 0.74; 95% CI: 0.61-0.88, p = 0.001), abnormal Neutrophils (OR = 16.8; 95% CI: 1.0-292.0, p = 0.053). Prediction model was statistically significant, χ2(5) = 86.1, p < 0.0005. CONCLUSIONS: Unlike reports from China, the most influential variables that led to disease progression in Jordanian patients were diabetes, fever, shortness of breath, body mass index, and abnormal neutrophils. Similar to reports from the USA, smoking was not a leading factor for complications. Comorbidities and patient health status, rather than age, were the primary risk factors for complications. Treatment with Hydroxychloroquine showed no protective effect.