Treatment effect estimation using the propensity score in clinical trials with historical control.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials assessing new treatment effects require a control group to compare the pure treatment effects. However, in clinical trials on regenerative medicine, rare diseases, and intractable diseases, it may be ethically difficult to assign participants to the control group. In recent years, the use of historical control data has attracted attention as a method for supplementing the number of participants in the control group. When combining historical control data with new randomized controlled trial (RCT) data, the assessment of heterogeneity using outcome data is not sufficient. Therefore, several statistical methods that consider participant outcomes and baseline characteristics, including the propensity score (PS) method have been proposed. METHODS: We propose a new method considering "information on whether the data are RCT data or not" in the PS model when combining the RCT and historical control data. The performance of the proposed method in estimating the treatment effect is evaluated using simulation data. RESULTS: When the distribution of covariates is similar between the RCT and historical control data, not much difference in performance is found between the proposed and conventional methods to estimate the treatment effect. On the other hand, when the distribution of covariates is not similar between the two kinds of data, the proposed method shows higher performance. CONCLUSIONS: Even when it is not known whether RCT and historical control data are similar, the proposed PS model is useful to estimate the treatment effect appropriately in RCTs using historical control data.

Correlation of multiple endpoints in the first-line chemotherapy of advanced gastric cancer: Pooled analysis of individual patient data from Japanese Phase III trials.

BACKGROUND: Individual-level surrogates are important for management in patients treated for advanced gastric cancer (AGC). This study aimed to comprehensively investigate the correlation of multiple clinical endpoints in the first-line chemotherapy of AGC. METHODS: Individual patient data (IPD) were collected from four Japanese Phase III trials comparing S-1-based first-line chemotherapies (SPIRITS, START, GC0301/TOP-002, and G-SOX trials). Patients without Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST)-based radiological assessments were excluded. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was tested for correlation among overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and postprogression survival (PPS). OS, PFS, and PPS were compared between responders (best response: complete response or partial response) and nonresponders (best response: stable disease or progressive disease). RESULTS: The study included a total of 1492 patients. Eighty percent of the patients (n = 1190) received subsequent chemotherapies after the failure of each trial's treatment protocol. PFS moderately correlated with OS (Spearman correlation coefficient = 0.66, p < 0.005), whereas the correlation between PPS and OS was strong (Spearman correlation coefficient = 0.87, p < 0.005). Responders had significantly longer OS (median, 17.7 vs. 9.1 months, p < 0.005), PFS (median, 6.9 vs. 2.8 months, p < 0.005), and PPS (median, 10.5 vs. 6.0 months, p < 0.005) than nonresponders. CONCLUSIONS: Our results reacknowledged the mild surrogacy of PFS and importance of postprogression treatments in patients with AGC receiving first-line chemotherapy. Consistent longer survival outcomes in better RECIST categories suggested that tumor response might be a useful individual-level surrogate.

Efficacy and Safety of Bleselumab in Preventing the Recurrence of Primary Focal Segmental Glomerulosclerosis in Kidney Transplant Recipients: A Phase 2a, Randomized, Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND: Focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) is a common cause of end-stage kidney disease and frequently recurs after kidney transplantation. Recurrent FSGS (rFSGS) is associated with poor allograft and patient outcomes. Bleselumab, a fully human immunoglobulin G4 anti-CD40 antagonistic monoclonal antibody, disrupts CD40-related processes in FSGS, potentially preventing rFSGS. METHODS: A phase 2a, randomized, multicenter, open-label study of adult recipients (aged ≥18 y) of a living or deceased donor kidney transplant with a history of biopsy-proven primary FSGS. The study assessed the efficacy of bleselumab combined with tacrolimus and corticosteroids as maintenance immunosuppression in the prevention of rFSGS >12 mo posttransplantation, versus standard of care (SOC) comprising tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and corticosteroids. All patients received basiliximab induction. The primary endpoint was rFSGS, defined as proteinuria (protein-creatinine ratio ≥3.0 g/g) with death, graft loss, or loss to follow-up imputed as rFSGS, through 3 mo posttransplant. RESULTS: Sixty-three patients were followed for 12 mo posttransplantation. Relative decrease in rFSGS occurrence through 3 mo with bleselumab versus SOC was 40.7% (95% confidence interval, -89.8 to 26.8; P = 0.37; absolute decrease 12.7% [95% confidence interval, -34.5 to 9.0]). Central-blinded biopsy review found relative (absolute) decreases in rFSGS of 10.9% (3.9%), 17.0% (6.2%), and 20.5% (7.5%) at 3, 6, and 12 mo posttransplant, respectively; these differences were not statistically significant. Adverse events were similar for both treatments. No deaths occurred during the study. CONCLUSIONS: In at-risk kidney transplant recipients, bleselumab numerically reduced proteinuria occurrence versus SOC, but no notable difference in occurrence of biopsy-proven rFSGS was observed.