Enhancing clinical data retrieval with Smart Watchers: a NiFi-based ETL pipeline for Elasticsearch queries.

BACKGROUND: The aim is to develop and deploy an automated clinical alert system to enhance patient care and streamline healthcare operations. Structured and unstructured data from multiple sources are used to generate near real-time alerts for specific clinical scenarios, with an additional goal to improve clinical decision-making through accuracy and reliability. METHODS: The automated clinical alert system, named Smart Watchers, was developed using Apache NiFi and Python scripts to create flexible data processing pipelines and customisable clinical alerts. A comparative analysis between Smart Watchers and the legacy Elastic Watchers was conducted to evaluate performance metrics such as accuracy, reliability, and scalability. The evaluation involved measuring the time taken for manual data extraction through the electronic patient record (EPR) front-end and comparing it with the automated data extraction process using Smart Watchers. RESULTS: Deployment of Smart Watchers showcased a consistent time savings between 90% to 98.67% compared to manual data extraction through the EPR front-end. The results demonstrate the efficiency of Smart Watchers in automating data extraction and alert generation, significantly reducing the time required for these tasks when compared to manual methods in a scalable manner. CONCLUSIONS: The research underscores the utility of employing an automated clinical alert system, and its portability facilitated its use across multiple clinical settings. The successful implementation and positive impact of the system lay a foundation for future technological innovations in this rapidly evolving field.

Discharge summary hospital course summarisation of in patient Electronic Health Record text with clinical concept guided deep pre-trained Transformer models.

Brief Hospital Course (BHC) summaries are succinct summaries of an entire hospital encounter, embedded within discharge summaries, written by senior clinicians responsible for the overall care of a patient. Methods to automatically produce summaries from inpatient documentation would be invaluable in reducing clinician manual burden of summarising documents under high time-pressure to admit and discharge patients. Automatically producing these summaries from the inpatient course, is a complex, multi-document summarisation task, as source notes are written from various perspectives (e.g. nursing, doctor, radiology), during the course of the hospitalisation. We demonstrate a range of methods for BHC summarisation demonstrating the performance of deep learning summarisation models across extractive and abstractive summarisation scenarios. We also test a novel ensemble extractive and abstractive summarisation model that incorporates a medical concept ontology (SNOMED) as a clinical guidance signal and shows superior performance in 2 real-world clinical data sets.

Artificial intelligence (AI) for neurologists: do digital neurones dream of electric sheep?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is routinely mentioned in journals and newspapers, and non-technical outsiders may have difficulty in distinguishing hyperbole from reality. We present a practical guide to help non-technical neurologists to understand healthcare AI. AI is being used to support clinical decisions in treating neurological disorders. We introduce basic concepts of AI, such as machine learning and natural language processing, and explain how AI is being used in healthcare, giving examples its benefits and challenges. We also cover how AI performance is measured, and its regulatory aspects in healthcare. An important theme is that AI is a general-purpose technology like medical statistics, with broad utility applicable in various scenarios, such that niche approaches are outpaced by approaches that are broadly applicable in many disease areas and specialties. By understanding AI basics and its potential applications, neurologists can make informed decisions when evaluating AI used in their clinical practice. This article was written by four humans, with generative AI helping with formatting and image generation.

A Critical Investigation of Cerebellar Associative Learning in Isolated Dystonia.

BACKGROUND: Impaired eyeblink conditioning is often cited as evidence for cerebellar dysfunction in isolated dystonia yet the results from individual studies are conflicting and underpowered. OBJECTIVE: To systematically examine the influence of dystonia, dystonia subtype, and clinical features over eyeblink conditioning within a statistical model which controlled for the covariates age and sex. METHODS: Original neurophysiological data from all published studies (until 2019) were shared and compared to an age- and sex-matched control group. Two raters blinded to participant identity rescored all recordings (6732 trials). After higher inter-rater agreement was confirmed, mean conditioning per block across raters was entered into a mixed repetitive measures model. RESULTS: Isolated dystonia (P = 0.517) and the subtypes of isolated dystonia (cervical dystonia, DYT-TOR1A, DYT-THAP1, and focal hand dystonia) had similar levels of eyeblink conditioning relative to controls. The presence of tremor did not significantly influence levels of eyeblink conditioning. A large range of eyeblink conditioning behavior was seen in both health and dystonia and sample size estimates are provided for future studies. CONCLUSIONS: The similarity of eyeblink conditioning behavior in dystonia and controls is against a global cerebellar learning deficit in isolated dystonia. Precise mechanisms for how the cerebellum interplays mechanistically with other key neuroanatomical nodes within the dystonic network remains an open research question. © 2022 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Parkinson Movement Disorder Society.

Diagnostic signature for heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF): a machine learning approach using multi-modality electronic health record data.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is thought to be highly prevalent yet remains underdiagnosed. Evidence-based treatments are available that increase quality of life and decrease hospitalization. We sought to develop a data-driven diagnostic model to predict from electronic health records (EHR) the likelihood of HFpEF among patients with unexplained dyspnea and preserved left ventricular EF. METHODS AND RESULTS: The derivation cohort comprised patients with dyspnea and echocardiography results. Structured and unstructured data were extracted using an automated informatics pipeline. Patients were retrospectively diagnosed as HFpEF (cases), non-HF (control cohort I), or HF with reduced EF (HFrEF; control cohort II). The ability of clinical parameters and investigations to discriminate cases from controls was evaluated by extreme gradient boosting. A likelihood scoring system was developed and validated in a separate test cohort. The derivation cohort included 1585 consecutive patients: 133 cases of HFpEF (9%), 194 non-HF cases (Control cohort I) and 1258 HFrEF cases (Control cohort II). Two HFpEF diagnostic signatures were derived, comprising symptoms, diagnoses and investigation results. A final prediction model was generated based on the averaged likelihood scores from these two models. In a validation cohort consisting of 269 consecutive patients [with 66 HFpEF cases (24.5%)], the diagnostic power of detecting HFpEF had an AUROC of 90% (P < 0.001) and average precision of 74%. CONCLUSION: This diagnostic signature enables discrimination of HFpEF from non-cardiac dyspnea or HFrEF from EHR and can assist in the diagnostic evaluation in patients with unexplained dyspnea. This approach will enable identification of HFpEF patients who may then benefit from new evidence-based therapies.

Evaluation and improvement of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) for COVID-19: a multi-hospital study.

BACKGROUND: The National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) is currently recommended in the UK for the risk stratification of COVID-19 patients, but little is known about its ability to detect severe cases. We aimed to evaluate NEWS2 for the prediction of severe COVID-19 outcome and identify and validate a set of blood and physiological parameters routinely collected at hospital admission to improve upon the use of NEWS2 alone for medium-term risk stratification. METHODS: Training cohorts comprised 1276 patients admitted to King's College Hospital National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust with COVID-19 disease from 1 March to 30 April 2020. External validation cohorts included 6237 patients from five UK NHS Trusts (Guy's and St Thomas' Hospitals, University Hospitals Southampton, University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust, University College London Hospitals, University Hospitals Birmingham), one hospital in Norway (Oslo University Hospital), and two hospitals in Wuhan, China (Wuhan Sixth Hospital and Taikang Tongji Hospital). The outcome was severe COVID-19 disease (transfer to intensive care unit (ICU) or death) at 14 days after hospital admission. Age, physiological measures, blood biomarkers, sex, ethnicity, and comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney diseases) measured at hospital admission were considered in the models. RESULTS: A baseline model of 'NEWS2 + age' had poor-to-moderate discrimination for severe COVID-19 infection at 14 days (area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in training cohort = 0.700, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.680, 0.722; Brier score = 0.192, 95% CI 0.186, 0.197). A supplemented model adding eight routinely collected blood and physiological parameters (supplemental oxygen flow rate, urea, age, oxygen saturation, C-reactive protein, estimated glomerular filtration rate, neutrophil count, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio) improved discrimination (AUC = 0.735; 95% CI 0.715, 0.757), and these improvements were replicated across seven UK and non-UK sites. However, there was evidence of miscalibration with the model tending to underestimate risks in most sites. CONCLUSIONS: NEWS2 score had poor-to-moderate discrimination for medium-term COVID-19 outcome which raises questions about its use as a screening tool at hospital admission. Risk stratification was improved by including readily available blood and physiological parameters measured at hospital admission, but there was evidence of miscalibration in external sites. This highlights the need for a better understanding of the use of early warning scores for COVID.

Machine learning-enabled multitrust audit of stroke comorbidities using natural language processing.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: With the increasing adoption of electronic records in the health system, machine learning-enabled techniques offer the opportunity for greater computer-assisted curation of these data for audit and research purposes. In this project, we evaluate the consistency of traditional curation methods used in routine clinical practice against a new machine learning-enabled tool, MedCAT, for the extraction of the stroke comorbidities recorded within the UK's Sentinel Stroke National Audit Programme (SSNAP) initiative. METHODS: A total of 2327 stroke admission episodes from three different National Health Service (NHS) hospitals, between January 2019 and April 2020, were included in this evaluation. In addition, current clinical curation methods (SSNAP) and the machine learning-enabled method (MedCAT) were compared against a subsample of 200 admission episodes manually reviewed by our study team. Performance metrics of sensitivity, specificity, precision, negative predictive value, and F1 scores are reported. RESULTS: The reporting of stroke comorbidities with current clinical curation methods is good for atrial fibrillation, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus, but poor for congestive cardiac failure. The machine learning-enabled method, MedCAT, achieved better performances across all four assessed comorbidities compared with current clinical methods, predominantly driven by higher sensitivity and F1 scores. CONCLUSIONS: We have shown machine learning-enabled data collection can support existing clinical and service initiatives, with the potential to improve the quality and speed of data extraction from existing clinical repositories. The scalability and flexibility of these new machine-learning tools, therefore, present an opportunity to revolutionize audit and research methods.

Estimating redundancy in clinical text.

The current mode of use of Electronic Health Records (EHR) elicits text redundancy. Clinicians often populate new documents by duplicating existing notes, then updating accordingly. Data duplication can lead to propagation of errors, inconsistencies and misreporting of care. Therefore, measures to quantify information redundancy play an essential role in evaluating innovations that operate on clinical narratives. This work is a quantitative examination of information redundancy in EHR notes. We present and evaluate two methods to measure redundancy: an information-theoretic approach and a lexicosyntactic and semantic model. Our first measure trains large Transformer-based language models using clinical text from a large openly available US-based ICU dataset and a large multi-site UK based Hospital. By comparing the information-theoretic efficient encoding of clinical text against open-domain corpora, we find that clinical text is ∼1.5× to ∼3× less efficient than open-domain corpora at conveying information. Our second measure, evaluates automated summarisation metrics Rouge and BERTScore to evaluate successive note pairs demonstrating lexicosyntactic and semantic redundancy, with averages from ∼43 to ∼65%.

Pre-existing cardiovascular disease rather than cardiovascular risk factors drives mortality in COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The relative association between cardiovascular (CV) risk factors, such as diabetes and hypertension, established CV disease (CVD), and susceptibility to CV complications or mortality in COVID-19 remains unclear. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study of consecutive adults hospitalised for severe COVID-19 between 1st March and 30th June 2020. Pre-existing CVD, CV risk factors and associations with mortality and CV complications were ascertained. RESULTS: Among 1721 patients (median age 71 years, 57% male), 349 (20.3%) had pre-existing CVD (CVD), 888 (51.6%) had CV risk factors without CVD (RF-CVD), 484 (28.1%) had neither. Patients with CVD were older with a higher burden of non-CV comorbidities. During follow-up, 438 (25.5%) patients died: 37% with CVD, 25.7% with RF-CVD and 16.5% with neither. CVD was independently associated with in-hospital mortality among patients < 70 years of age (adjusted HR 2.43 [95% CI 1.16-5.07]), but not in those ≥ 70 years (aHR 1.14 [95% CI 0.77-1.69]). RF-CVD were not independently associated with mortality in either age group (< 70 y aHR 1.21 [95% CI 0.72-2.01], ≥ 70 y aHR 1.07 [95% CI 0.76-1.52]). Most CV complications occurred in patients with CVD (66%) versus RF-CVD (17%) or neither (11%; p < 0.001). 213 [12.4%] patients developed venous thromboembolism (VTE). CVD was not an independent predictor of VTE. CONCLUSIONS: In patients hospitalised with COVID-19, pre-existing established CVD appears to be a more important contributor to mortality than CV risk factors in the absence of CVD. CVD-related hazard may be mediated, in part, by new CV complications. Optimal care and vigilance for destabilised CVD are essential in this patient group. Trial registration n/a.

COVID-19-related acute kidney injury; incidence, risk factors and outcomes in a large UK cohort.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common among patients hospitalised with COVID-19 and associated with worse prognosis. The aim of this study was to investigate the epidemiology, risk factors and outcomes of AKI in patients with COVID-19 in a large UK tertiary centre. METHODS: We analysed data of consecutive adults admitted with a laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 across two sites of a hospital in London, UK, from 1st January to 13th May 2020. RESULTS: Of the 1248 inpatients included, 487 (39%) experienced AKI (51% stage 1, 13% stage 2, and 36% stage 3). The weekly AKI incidence rate gradually increased to peak at week 5 (3.12 cases/100 patient-days), before reducing to its nadir (0.83 cases/100 patient-days) at the end the study period (week 10). Among AKI survivors, 84.0% had recovered renal function to pre-admission levels before discharge and none required on-going renal replacement therapy (RRT). Pre-existing renal impairment [odds ratio (OR) 3.05, 95%CI 2.24-4,18; p <  0.0001], and inpatient diuretic use (OR 1.79, 95%CI 1.27-2.53; p <  0.005) were independently associated with a higher risk for AKI. AKI was a strong predictor of 30-day mortality with an increasing risk across AKI stages [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.59 (95%CI 1.19-2.13) for stage 1; p < 0.005, 2.71(95%CI 1.82-4.05); p < 0.001for stage 2 and 2.99 (95%CI 2.17-4.11); p < 0.001for stage 3]. One third of AKI3 survivors (30.7%), had newly established renal impairment at 3 to 6 months. CONCLUSIONS: This large UK cohort demonstrated a high AKI incidence and was associated with increased mortality even at stage 1. Inpatient diuretic use was linked to a higher AKI risk. One third of survivors with AKI3 exhibited newly established renal impairment already at 3-6 months.

Bleeding in cardiac patients prescribed antithrombotic drugs: electronic health record phenotyping algorithms, incidence, trends and prognosis.

BACKGROUND: Clinical guidelines and public health authorities lack recommendations on scalable approaches to defining and monitoring the occurrence and severity of bleeding in populations prescribed antithrombotic therapy. METHODS: We examined linked primary care, hospital admission and death registry electronic health records (CALIBER 1998-2010, England) of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation, acute myocardial infarction, unstable angina or stable angina with the aim to develop algorithms for bleeding events. Using the developed bleeding phenotypes, Kaplan-Meier plots were used to estimate the incidence of bleeding events and we used Cox regression models to assess the prognosis for all-cause mortality, atherothrombotic events and further bleeding. RESULTS: We present electronic health record phenotyping algorithms for bleeding based on bleeding diagnosis in primary or hospital care, symptoms, transfusion, surgical procedures and haemoglobin values. In validation of the phenotype, we estimated a positive predictive value of 0.88 (95% CI 0.64, 0.99) for hospitalised bleeding. Amongst 128,815 patients, 27,259 (21.2%) had at least 1 bleeding event, with 5-year risks of bleeding of 29.1%, 21.9%, 25.3% and 23.4% following diagnoses of atrial fibrillation, acute myocardial infarction, unstable angina and stable angina, respectively. Rates of hospitalised bleeding per 1000 patients more than doubled from 1.02 (95% CI 0.83, 1.22) in January 1998 to 2.68 (95% CI 2.49, 2.88) in December 2009 coinciding with the increased rates of antiplatelet and vitamin K antagonist prescribing. Patients with hospitalised bleeding and primary care bleeding, with or without markers of severity, were at increased risk of all-cause mortality and atherothrombotic events compared to those with no bleeding. For example, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 1.98 (95% CI 1.86, 2.11) for primary care bleeding with markers of severity and 1.99 (95% CI 1.92, 2.05) for hospitalised bleeding without markers of severity, compared to patients with no bleeding. CONCLUSIONS: Electronic health record bleeding phenotyping algorithms offer a scalable approach to monitoring bleeding in the population. Incidence of bleeding has doubled in incidence since 1998, affects one in four cardiovascular disease patients, and is associated with poor prognosis. Efforts are required to tackle this iatrogenic epidemic.

In response to Ballantyne and Schaefer's 'Consent and the ethical duty to participate in health data research'.

We welcome Ballantyne & Schaefer's discussion of the issues concerning consent and use of health data for research. In response to their acknowledgement of the need for public debate and discussion, we provide evidence from our own public consultation on this topic.

Late cortical plasticity in motor and auditory cortex: role of met-allele in BDNF Val66Met polymorphism.

The brain-derived neurotropic factor (BDNF) Val66Met polymorphism has been associated with abnormalities of synaptic plasticity in animal models, and abnormalities in motor cortical plasticity have also been described in humans using transcranial direct current stimulation. No study has yet been done on plasticity in non-motor regions, and the effect of two Met alleles (i.e. 'Met dose') is not well understood. We studied the effect of the BDNF Val66Met polymorphism on the after-effects of transcranial direct current stimulation and tetanic auditory stimulation in 65 subjects (23; Val66Val, 22; Val66Met and 20; Met66Met genotypes). In the first session, motor evoked potentials (MEP) were recorded under stereotaxic guidance for 90 min after 9 min of anodal transcranial direct current stimulation (TDCS). In the second session, auditory-evoked potentials (AEP) were recorded before and after 2 min of auditory 13 Hz tetanic stimulation. There was a difference in MEP facilitation post-TDCS comparing Met carriers with non-Met carriers, with Met carriers having a modest late facilitation at 30-90 min. There was no difference in responses between Val66Met genotype and Met66Met genotype subjects. Tetanic auditory stimulation also produced late facilitation of N1-P2 AEP at 25 min, but there was no apparent effect of genetic status. This study indicates that Met66Met carriers behave like Val66Met carriers for TDCS-induced plasticity, and produce a late facilitation of MEPs. Auditory cortical plasticity was not affected by the BDNF Val66Met polymorphism. This study sheds light on the differences between auditory and motor cortical plasticity and the role of the BDNF Val66Met polymorphism.

Secondary and primary dystonia: pathophysiological differences.

Primary dystonia is thought to be a disorder of the basal ganglia because the symptoms resemble those of patients who have anatomical lesions in the same regions of the brain (secondary dystonia). However, these two groups of patients respond differently to therapy suggesting differences in pathophysiological mechanisms. Pathophysiological deficits in primary dystonia are well characterized and include reduced inhibition at many levels of the motor system and increased plasticity, while emerging evidence suggests additional cerebellar deficits. We compared electrophysiological features of primary and secondary dystonia, using transcranial magnetic stimulation of motor cortex and eye blink classical conditioning paradigm, to test whether dystonia symptoms share the same underlying mechanism. Eleven patients with hemidystonia caused by basal ganglia or thalamic lesions were tested over both hemispheres, corresponding to affected and non-affected side and compared with 10 patients with primary segmental dystonia with arm involvement and 10 healthy participants of similar age. We measured resting motor threshold, active motor threshold, input/output curve, short interval intracortical inhibition and cortical silent period. Plasticity was probed using an excitatory paired associative stimulation protocol. In secondary dystonia cerebellar-dependent conditioning was measured using delayed eye blink classical conditioning paradigm and results were compared with the data of patients with primary dystonia obtained previously. We found no difference in motor thresholds, input/output curves or cortical silent period between patients with secondary and primary dystonia or healthy controls. In secondary dystonia short interval intracortical inhibition was reduced on the affected side, whereas it was normal on the non-affected side. Patients with secondary dystonia had a normal response to the plasticity protocol on both the affected and non-affected side and normal eye blink classical conditioning that was not different from healthy participants. In contrast, patients with primary dystonia showed increased cortical plasticity and reduced eye blink classical conditioning. Normal motor cortex plasticity in secondary dystonia demonstrates that abnormally enhanced cortical plasticity is not required for clinical expression of dystonia, and normal eye blink conditioning suggests an absence of functional cerebellar involvement in this form of dystonia. Reduced short interval intracortical inhibition on the side of the lesion may result from abnormal basal ganglia output or may be a consequence of maintaining an abnormal dystonic posture. Dystonia appears to be a motor symptom that can reflect different pathophysiological states triggered by a variety of insults.

The burden of hyperkalaemia on hospital healthcare resources.

Hyperkalaemia is associated with prolonged hospital admission and worse mortality. Hyperkalaemia may also necessitate clinical consults, therapies for hyperkalaemia and high-dependency bed utilisation. We evaluated the 'hidden' human and organisational resource utilisation for hyperkalaemia in hospitalised patients. This was a single-centre, observational cohort study (Jan 2017-Dec 2020) at a tertiary-care hospital. The CogStack system (data processing and analytics platform) was used to search unstructured and structured data from individual patient records. Association between potassium and death was modelled using cubic spline regression, adjusted for age, sex, and comorbidities. Cox proportional hazards estimated the hazard of death compared with normokalaemia (3.5-5.0 mmol/l). 129,172 patients had potassium measurements in the emergency department. Incidence of hyperkalaemia was 85.7 per 1000. There were 49,011 emergency admissions. Potassium > 6.5 mmol/L had 3.9-fold worse in-hospital mortality than normokalaemia. Chronic kidney disease was present in 21% with potassium 5-5.5 mmol/L and 54% with potassium > 6.5 mmol/L. For diabetes, it was 20% and 32%, respectively. Of those with potassium > 6.5 mmol/L, 29% had nephrology review, and 13% critical care review; in this group 22% transferred to renal wards and 8% to the critical care unit. Dialysis was used in 39% of those with peak potassium > 6.5 mmol/L. Admission hyperkalaemia and hypokalaemia were independently associated with reduced likelihood of hospital discharge. Hyperkalaemia is associated with greater in-hospital mortality and reduced likelihood of hospital discharge. It necessitated significant utilisation of nephrology and critical care consultations and greater likelihood of patient transfer to renal and critical care.

Foresight-a generative pretrained transformer for modelling of patient timelines using electronic health records: a retrospective modelling study.

BACKGROUND: An electronic health record (EHR) holds detailed longitudinal information about a patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored as unstructured, free text. Existing approaches to model a patient's trajectory focus mostly on structured data and a subset of single-domain outcomes. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of Foresight, a generative transformer in temporal modelling of patient data, integrating both free text and structured formats, to predict a diverse array of future medical outcomes, such as disorders, substances (eg, to do with medicines, allergies, or poisonings), procedures, and findings (eg, relating to observations, judgements, or assessments). METHODS: Foresight is a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses named entity recognition and linking tools to convert EHR document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events, such as disorders, substances, procedures, and findings. The Foresight pipeline has four main components: (1) CogStack (data retrieval and preprocessing); (2) the Medical Concept Annotation Toolkit (structuring of the free-text information from EHRs); (3) Foresight Core (deep-learning model for biomedical concept modelling); and (4) the Foresight web application. We processed the entire free-text portion from three different hospital datasets (King's College Hospital [KCH], South London and Maudsley [SLaM], and the US Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III [MIMIC-III]), resulting in information from 811 336 patients and covering both physical and mental health institutions. We measured the performance of models using custom metrics derived from precision and recall. FINDINGS: Foresight achieved a precision@10 (ie, of 10 forecasted candidates, at least one is correct) of 0·68 (SD 0·0027) for the KCH dataset, 0·76 (0·0032) for the SLaM dataset, and 0·88 (0·0018) for the MIMIC-III dataset, for forecasting the next new disorder in a patient timeline. Foresight also achieved a precision@10 value of 0·80 (0·0013) for the KCH dataset, 0·81 (0·0026) for the SLaM dataset, and 0·91 (0·0011) for the MIMIC-III dataset, for forecasting the next new biomedical concept. In addition, Foresight was validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by five clinicians and achieved a relevancy of 33 (97% [95% CI 91-100]) of 34 for the top forecasted candidate disorder. As a generative model, Foresight can forecast follow-on biomedical concepts for as many steps as required. INTERPRETATION: Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk forecasting, virtual trials, and clinical research to study the progression of disorders, to simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and for educational purposes. FUNDING: National Health Service Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, National Institute for Health and Care Research Biomedical Research Centre, and Health Data Research UK.