Discriminating the biophysical signal from human-induced effects on long-term primary production dynamics. The case of Patagonia.

The temporal trend of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) is frequently used to estimate the effect of humans on ecosystems. In water-limited ecosystems, like most grazing areas in the world, the effect of humans act upon ANPP in combination with environmental variations. Our main objective was to quantify long-term (1981-2012) changes of ANPP and discriminate the causes of these changes between environmental and human at a subcontinental scale, across vast areas of Patagonia. We estimated ANPP through a radiative model based on remote sensing data. Then, we evaluated the relation between ANPP and environmental interannual variations of two hierarchically related factors: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and precipitation. We described the effect of humans through the shape of the temporal trends of the residuals (RESTREND) of the environmental model and quantified human relative impact through the RESTREND: ANPP trend ratio. ANPP interannual variation was significantly explained by ENSO (through SOI) and precipitation in 65% of the study area. The SOI had a positive association with annual precipitation. The association between ANPP and annual precipitation was positive. RESTREND analysis was statistically significant in 92% of the area where the tested environmental model worked, representing 60% of the study area, and it was mostly negative. However, its magnitude, revealed through the RESTREND: ANPP trend ratio, was relatively mild. Our analysis revealed that most of ANPP trends were associated with climate and that even when human density is low, its incidence seems to be mainly negative.

Nature representation in South American protected areas: country contrasts and conservation priorities.

BACKGROUND: South America faces strong environmental pressures as a result of agriculture and infrastructure expansion and also of demographic growth, demanding immediate action to preserve natural assets by establishing protected areas. Currently, 7.1% of the (sub)continent is under strict conservation categories (I to IV, IUCN), but the spatial distribution of these 1.3 × 106 km2 is poorly understood. We evaluated the representation of nature within the networks of protected areas, map conservation priorities and assess demographic, economic or geopolitical causes of existing protection patterns. METHODS: We characterized nature representation by looking at two components: the extent and the equality of protection. The first refers to the fraction of territory under protection, while the second refers to the homogeneity in the distribution along natural conditions of this protected fraction. We characterized natural conditions by either 113 biogeographical units (specifically, ecoregions) or a series of limited and significant climatic, topographic and edaphic traits. We analyzed representation every ten years since 1960 at national and continental levels. In the physical approach, histograms allowed us to map the degree of conservation priorities. Finally, we ranked the importance of different economic or geopolitical variables driving the observed distributions with a random forest technique. RESULTS: Nature representation varied across countries in spite of its priority in conservation agendas. In Brazil, Peru and Argentina there are still natural conditions with no formal protection, while in Bolivia and Venezuela, protected areas incorporate the natural diversity in a more balanced manner. As protected networks have increased their extent, so did their equality across and within countries over time. Our maps revealed as top continental priorities the southern temperate, subhumid and fertile lowland environments, and other country-specific areas. Protection extent was generally driven by a low population density and isolation, while other variables like distance to frontiers, were relevant only locally (e.g., in Argentina). DISCUSSION: Our description of the spatial distribution of protected areas can help societies and governments to improve the allocation of conservation efforts. We identified the main limitations that future conservation efforts will face, as protection was generally driven by the opportunities provided by low population density and isolation. From a methodological perspective, the physical approach reveals new properties of protection and provides tools to explore nature representation at different spatial, temporal and conceptual levels, complementing the traditional ones based on biodiversity or biogeographical attributes.

Neotyphodium endophyte infection frequency in annual grass populations: relative importance of mutualism and transmission efficiency.

Persistence and ubiquity of vertically transmitted Neotyphodium endophytes in grass populations is puzzling because infected plants do not consistently exhibit increased fitness. Using an annual grass population model, we show that the problems for matching endophyte infection and mutualism are likely to arise from difficulties in detecting small mutualistic effects, variability in endophyte transmission efficiency and an apparent prevalence of non-equilibrium in the dynamics of infection. Although endophytes would ultimately persist only if the infection confers some fitness increase to the host plants, such an increase can be very small, as long as the transmission efficiency is sufficiently high. In addition, imperfect transmission limits effectively the equilibrium infection level if the infected plants exhibit small or large reproductive advantage. Under frequent natural conditions, the equilibrium infection level is very sensitive to small changes in transmission efficiency and host reproductive advantage, while convergence to such an equilibrium is slow. As a consequence, seed immigration and environmental fluctuation are likely to keep local infection levels away from equilibrium. Transient dynamics analysis suggests that, when driven by environmental fluctuation, infection frequency increases would often be larger than decreases. By contrast, when due to immigration, overrepresentation of infected individuals tends to vanish faster than equivalent overrepresentation of non-infected individuals.

Opportunities drive the global distribution of protected areas.

BACKGROUND: Protected areas, regarded today as a cornerstone of nature conservation, result from an array of multiple motivations and opportunities. We explored at global and regional levels the current distribution of protected areas along biophysical, human, and biological gradients, and assessed to what extent protection has pursued (i) a balanced representation of biophysical environments, (ii) a set of preferred conditions (biological, spiritual, economic, or geopolitical), or (iii) existing opportunities for conservation regardless of any representation or preference criteria. METHODS: We used histograms to describe the distribution of terrestrial protected areas along biophysical, human, and biological independent gradients and linear and non-linear regression and correlation analyses to describe the sign, shape, and strength of the relationships. We used a random forest analysis to rank the importance of different variables related to conservation preferences and opportunity drivers, and an evenness metric to quantify representativeness. RESULTS: We find that protection at a global level is primarily driven by the opportunities provided by isolation and a low population density (variable importance = 34.6 and 19.9, respectively). Preferences play a secondary role, with a bias towards tourism attractiveness and proximity to international borders (variable importance = 12.7 and 3.4, respectively). Opportunities shape protection strongly in "North America & Australia-NZ" and "Latin America & Caribbean," while the importance of the representativeness of biophysical environments is higher in "Sub-Saharan Africa" (1.3 times the average of other regions). DISCUSSION: Environmental representativeness and biodiversity protection are top priorities in land conservation agendas. However, our results suggest that they have been minor players driving current protection at both global and regional levels. Attempts to increase their relevance will necessarily have to recognize the predominant opportunistic nature that the establishment of protected areas has had until present times.

Vegetation Productivity in Natural vs. Cultivated Systems along Water Availability Gradients in the Dry Subtropics.

The dry subtropics are subject to a rapid expansion of crops and pastures over vast areas of natural woodlands and savannas. In this paper, we explored the effect of this transformation on vegetation productivity (magnitude, and seasonal and long-term variability) along aridity gradients which span from semiarid to subhumid conditions, considering exclusively those areas with summer rains (>66%). Vegetation productivity was characterized with the proxy metric "Enhanced Vegetation Index" (EVI) (2000 to 2012 period), on 6186 natural and cultivated sampling points on five continents, and combined with a global climatology database by means of additive models for quantile regressions. Globally and regionally, cultivation amplified the seasonal and inter-annual variability of EVI without affecting its magnitude. Natural and cultivated systems maintained a similar and continuous increase of EVI with increasing water availability, yet achieved through contrasting ways. In natural systems, the productivity peak and the growing season length displayed concurrent steady increases with water availability, while in cultivated systems the productivity peak increased from semiarid to dry-subhumid conditions, and stabilized thereafter giving place to an increase in the growing season length towards wetter conditions. Our results help to understand and predict the ecological impacts of deforestation on vegetation productivity, a key ecosystem process linked to a broad range of services.