Primary biliary cholangitis drug evaluation and regulatory approval: Where do we go from here?

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronic cholestatic liver disease. The management landscape was transformed 20 years ago with the advent of ursodeoxycholic acid. Up to 40% of patients do not, however, respond adequately to ursodeoxycholic acid and therefore still remain at risk of disease progression to cirrhosis. The introduction of obeticholic acid as a second-line therapy for patients failing ursodeoxycholic acid has improved outcomes for patients with PBC. There remains, however, a need for better treatment for patients at higher risk. The greatest threat facing our efforts to improve treatment in PBC is, paradoxically, the regulatory approval model providing conditional marketing authorization for new drugs based on biochemical markers on the condition that long-term, randomized placebo-controlled outcome trials are performed to confirm efficacy. As demonstrated by the COBALT confirmatory study with obeticholic acid, it is difficult to retain patients in the required follow-on confirmatory placebo-controlled PBC outcome trials when a licensed drug is commercially available. New PBC therapies in development, such as the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor agonists, face even greater challenges in demonstrating outcome benefit through randomized placebo-controlled studies once following conditional marketing authorization, as there will be even more treatment options available. A recently published EMA Reflection Paper provides some guidance on the regulatory pathway to full approval but fails to recognize the importance of real-world data in providing evidence of outcome benefit in rare diseases. Here we explore the impact of the EMA reflection paper on PBC therapy and offer pragmatic solutions for generating evidence of long-term outcomes through real-world data collection.

Adequate versus deep response to ursodeoxycholic acid in primary biliary cholangitis: To what extent and under what conditions is normal alkaline phosphatase level associated with complication-free survival gain?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Normal alkaline phosphatase (ALP) levels in ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)-treated patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) are associated with better long-term outcome. However, second-line therapies are currently recommended only when ALP levels remain above 1.5 times the upper limit of normal (×ULN) after 12-month UDCA. We assessed whether, in patients considered good responders to UDCA, normal ALP levels were associated with significant survival gains. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 1047 patients with PBC who attained an adequate response to UDCA according to Paris-2 criteria. Time to liver-related complications, liver transplantation, or death was assessed using adjusted restricted mean survival time (RMST) analysis. The overall incidence rate of events was 17.0 (95% CI: 13.7-21.1) per 1000 out of 4763.2 patient-years. On the whole population, normal serum ALP values (but not normal gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), or aspartate aminotransferase (AST); or total bilirubin < 0.6 ×ULN) were associated with a significant absolute complication-free survival gain at 10 years (mean 7.6 months, 95% CI: 2.7 - 12.6 mo.; p = 0.003). In subgroup analysis, this association was significant in patients with a liver stiffness measurement ≥ 10 kPa and/or age ≤ 62 years, with a 10-year absolute complication-free survival gain of 52.8 months (95% CI: 45.7-59.9, p < 0.001) when these 2 conditions were met. CONCLUSIONS: PBC patients with an adequate response to UDCA and persistent ALP elevation between 1.1 and 1.5 ×ULN, particularly those with advanced fibrosis and/or who are sufficiently young, remain at risk of poor outcome. Further therapeutic efforts should be considered for these patients.

Transplant benefit-based offering of deceased donor livers in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The National Liver Offering Scheme (NLOS) was introduced in the UK in 2018 to offer livers from deceased donors to patients on the national waiting list based, for most patients, on calculated transplant benefit. Before NLOS, livers were offered to transplant centres by geographic donor zones and, within centres, by estimated recipient need for a transplant. METHODS: UK Transplant Registry data on patient registrations and transplants were analysed to build statistical models for survival on the list (M1) and survival post-transplantation (M2). A separate cohort of registrations - not seen by the models before - was analysed to simulate what liver allocation would have been under M1, M2 and a transplant benefit score (TBS) model (combining both M1 and M2), and to compare these allocations to what had been recorded in the UK Transplant Registry. The number of deaths on the waiting list and patient life years were used to compare the different simulation scenarios and to select the optimal allocation model. Registry data were monitored, pre- and post-NLOS, to understand the performance of the scheme. RESULTS: The TBS was identified as the optimal model to offer donation after brain death (DBD) livers to adult and large paediatric elective recipients. In the first 2 years of NLOS, 68% of DBD livers were offered using the TBS to this type of recipient. Monitoring data indicate that mortality on the waiting list post-NLOS significantly decreased compared with pre-NLOS (p <0.0001), and that patient survival post-listing was significantly greater post-compared to pre-NLOS (p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: In the first two years of NLOS offering, waiting list mortality fell while post-transplant survival was not negatively impacted, delivering on the scheme's objectives. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: The National Liver Offering Scheme (NLOS) was introduced in the UK in 2018 to increase transparency of the deceased donor liver offering process, maximise the overall survival of the waiting list population, and improve equity of access to liver transplantation. To our knowledge, it is the first scheme that offers organs based on statistical prediction of transplant benefit: the transplant benefit score. The results are important to the transplant community - from healthcare practitioners to patients - and demonstrate that, in the first two years of NLOS offering, waiting list mortality fell while post-transplant survival was not negatively impacted, thus delivering on the scheme's objectives. The scheme continues to be monitored to ensure that the transplant benefit score remains up-to-date and that signals that suggest the possible disadvantage of some patients are investigated.

Cyclosporine vs. tacrolimus after liver transplantation for primary sclerosing cholangitis - a propensity score-matched intention-to-treat analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is controversy regarding the optimal calcineurin inhibitor type after liver transplant(ation) (LT) for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). We compared tacrolimus with cyclosporine in a propensity score-matched intention-to-treat analysis based on registries representing nearly all LTs in Europe and the US. METHODS: From the European Liver Transplant Registry (ELTR) and Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR), we included adult patients with PSC undergoing a primary LT between 2000-2020. Patients initially treated with cyclosporine were propensity score-matched 1:3 with those initially treated with tacrolimus. The primary outcomes were patient and graft survival rates. RESULTS: The propensity score-matched sample comprised 399 cyclosporine-treated and 1,197 tacrolimus-treated patients with PSC. During a median follow-up of 7.4 years (IQR 2.3-12.8, 12,579.2 person-years), there were 480 deaths and 231 re-LTs. The initial tacrolimus treatment was superior to cyclosporine in terms of patient and graft survival, with 10-year patient survival estimates of 72.8% for tacrolimus and 65.2% for cyclosporine (p <0.001) and 10-year graft survival estimates of 62.4% and 53.8% (p <0.001), respectively. These findings were consistent in the subgroups according to age, sex, registry (ELTR vs. SRTR), time period of LT, MELD score, and diabetes status. The acute rejection rates were similar between groups. In the multivariable Cox regression analysis, tacrolimus (hazard ratio 0.72, p <0.001) and mycophenolate use (hazard ratio 0.82, p = 0.03) were associated with a reduced risk of graft loss or death, whereas steroid use was not significant. CONCLUSIONS: Tacrolimus is associated with better patient and graft survival rates than cyclosporine and should be the standard calcineurin inhibitor used after LT for patients with PSC. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: The optimal calcineurin inhibitor to use after liver transplantation in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis has yet to be firmly established. Since randomized trials with long follow-up are unlikely to be performed, multicontinental long-term registry data are essential in informing clinical practices. Our study supports the practice of using tacrolimus instead of cyclosporine in the initial immunosuppressive regimen after liver transplantation for patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis. The retrospective registry-based design is a limitation.

Dynamics of liver stiffness measurement and clinical course of primary biliary cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), static liver stiffness measurement (LSM) has proven prognostic value. However, the added prognostic value of LSM time course in this disease remains uncertain. METHODS: We conducted an international retrospective cohort study among PBC patients treated with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) and followed by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) between 2003 and 2022. Using joint modeling, the association of LSM trajectory and the incidence of serious clinical events (SCE), defined as cirrhosis complications, liver transplantation (LT) or death, was quantified using the hazard ratio (HR) and its confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: A total of 6,362 LSMs were performed in 3,078 patients (2,007 on UDCA alone; 13% with cirrhosis), in whom 316 SCE occurred over 14,445 person-years (median follow-up, 4.2 years; incidence rate, 21.9 per 1,000 person-years). LSM progressed in 59% of patients (mean 0.39 kPa/year). After adjusting for prognostic factors at baseline, including LSM, any relative change in LSM was associated with a significant variation in SCE risk (p<0.001). For example, the adjusted HRs (95% CI) associated with a 20% annual variation in LSM were 2.13 (1.89 - 2.45) for the increase and 0.40 (0.33 - 0.46) for the decrease. The association between LSM trajectory and SCE risk persisted regardless of treatment response or duration, when patients with cirrhosis were excluded, and when only death or LT was considered. CONCLUSIONS: Tracking longitudinal changes in LSM using VCTE provides valuable insights into PBC prognosis, offering a robust predictive measure for the risk of SCE. LSM could be used as a clinically relevant surrogate endpoint in PBC clinical trials.

Machine Learning Identifies Key Proteins in Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis Progression and Links High CCL24 to Cirrhosis.

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a rare, progressive disease, characterized by inflammation and fibrosis of the bile ducts, lacking reliable prognostic biomarkers for disease activity. Machine learning applied to broad proteomic profiling of sera allowed for the discovery of markers of disease presence, severity, and cirrhosis and the exploration of the involvement of CCL24, a chemokine with fibro-inflammatory activity. Sera from 30 healthy controls and 45 PSC patients were profiled with proximity extension assay, quantifying the expression of 2870 proteins, and used to train an elastic net model. Proteins that contributed most to the model were tested for correlation to enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) score and used to perform pathway analysis. Statistical modeling for the presence of cirrhosis was performed with principal component analysis (PCA), and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were used to assess the useability of potential biomarkers. The model successfully predicted the presence of PSC, where the top-ranked proteins were associated with cell adhesion, immune response, and inflammation, and each had an area under receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve greater than 0.9 for disease presence and greater than 0.8 for ELF score. Pathway analysis showed enrichment for functions associated with PSC, overlapping with pathways enriched in patients with high levels of CCL24. Patients with cirrhosis showed higher levels of CCL24. This data-driven approach to characterize PSC and its severity highlights potential serum protein biomarkers and the importance of CCL24 in the disease, implying its therapeutic potential in PSC.

UK-Wide Multicenter Evaluation of Second-line Therapies in Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Thirty-to-forty percent of patients with primary biliary cholangitis inadequately respond to ursodeoxycholic acid. Our aim was to assemble national, real-world data on the effectiveness of obeticholic acid (OCA) as a second-line treatment, alongside non-licensed therapy with fibric acid derivatives (bezafibrate or fenofibrate). METHODS: This was a nationwide observational cohort study conducted from August 2017 until June 2021. RESULTS: We accrued data from 457 patients; 349 treated with OCA and 108 with fibric acid derivatives. At baseline/pre-treatment, individuals in the OCA group manifest higher risk features compared with those taking fibric acid derivatives, evidenced by more elevated alkaline phosphatase values, and a larger proportion of individuals with cirrhosis, abnormal bilirubin, prior non-response to ursodeoxycholic acid, and elastography readings >9.6kPa (P < .05 for all). Overall, 259 patients (OCA) and 80 patients (fibric acid derivatives) completed 12 months of second-line therapy, yielding a dropout rate of 25.7% and 25.9%, respectively. At 12 months, the magnitude of alkaline phosphatase reduction was 29.5% and 56.7% in OCA and fibric acid groups (P < .001). Conversely, 55.9% and 36.4% of patients normalized serum alanine transaminase and bilirubin in the OCA group (P < .001). The proportion with normal alanine transaminase or bilirubin values in the fibric acid group was no different at 12 months compared with baseline. Twelve-month biochemical response rates were 70.6% with OCA and 80% under fibric acid treatment (P = .121). Response rates between treatment groups were no different on propensity-score matching or on sub-analysis of high-risk groups defined at baseline. CONCLUSION: Across the population of patients with primary biliary cholangitis in the United Kingdom, rates of biochemical response and drug discontinuation appear similar under fibric acid and OCA treatment.

Greater Transplant-Free Survival in Patients Receiving Obeticholic Acid for Primary Biliary Cholangitis in a Clinical Trial Setting Compared to Real-World External Controls.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) Obeticholic Acid (OCA) International Study of Efficacy (POISE) randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial demonstrated that OCA reduced biomarkers associated with adverse clinical outcomes (ie, alkaline phosphatase, bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase) in patients with PBC. The objective of this study was to evaluate time to first occurrence of liver transplantation or death in patients with OCA in the POISE trial and open-label extension vs comparable non-OCA-treated external controls. METHODS: Propensity scores were generated for external control patients meeting POISE eligibility criteria from 2 registry studies (Global PBC and UK-PBC) using an index date selected randomly between the first and last date (inclusive) on which eligibility criteria were met. Cox proportional hazards models weighted by inverse probability of treatment assessed time to death or liver transplantation. Additional analyses (Global PBC only) added hepatic decompensation to the composite end point and assessed efficacy in patients with or without cirrhosis. RESULTS: During the 6-year follow-up, there were 5 deaths or liver transplantations in 209 subjects in the POISE cohort (2.4%), 135 of 1381 patients in the Global PBC control (10.0%), and 281 of 2135 patients in the UK-PBC control (13.2%). The hazard ratios (HRs) for the primary outcome were 0.29 (95% CI, 0.10-0.83) for POISE vs Global PBC and 0.30 (95% CI, 0.12-0.75) for POISE vs UK-PBC. In the Global PBC study, HR was 0.20 (95% CI, 0.03-1.22) for patients with cirrhosis and 0.31 (95% CI, 0.09-1.04) for those without cirrhosis; HR was 0.42 (95% CI, 0.21-0.85) including hepatic decompensation. CONCLUSIONS: Patients treated with OCA in a trial setting had significantly greater transplant-free survival than comparable external control patients.

Ursodeoxycholic Acid Treatment-Induced GLOBE Score Changes Are Associated With Liver Transplantation-Free Survival in Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

INTRODUCTION: Treatment of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) can improve the GLOBE score. We aimed to assess the association between changes in the GLOBE score (ΔGLOBE) and liver transplantation (LT)-free survival in patients with PBC who were treated with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). METHODS: Among UDCA-treated patients within the Global PBC cohort, the association between ΔGLOBE (ΔGLOBE 0-1 : during the first year of UDCA, ΔGLOBE 1-2 : during the second year) and the risk of LT or death was assessed through Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: Overall, 3,775 UDCA-treated patients were included; 3,424 (90.7%) were female, the median age was 54.0 (interquartile range [IQR] 45.9-62.4) years, and the median baseline GLOBE score was 0.25 (IQR -0.47 to 0.96). During a median follow-up of 7.2 (IQR 3.7-11.5) years, 730 patients reached the combined end point of LT or death. The median ΔGLOBE 0-1 was -0.27 (IQR -0.56 to 0.02). Cox regression analyses, adjusted for pretreatment GLOBE score and ΔGLOBE 0-12 , showed that ΔGLOBE was associated with LT or death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.28, 95% confidence interval 1.81-2.87, P < 0.001). The interaction between baseline GLOBE score and ΔGLOBE 0-1 was not statistically significant ( P = 0.296). The ΔGLOBE 1-2 was associated with LT or death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.19, 95% confidence interval 1.67-2.86, P < 0.001), independently from the baseline GLOBE score and the change in GLOBE score during the first year of UDCA. DISCUSSION: UDCA-induced changes in the GLOBE score were significantly associated with LT-free survival in patients with PBC. While the relative risk reduction of LT or death was stable, the absolute risk reduction was heavily dependent on the baseline prognosis of the patient.

Optimizing therapy in primary biliary cholangitis: Alkaline phosphatase at six months identifies one-year non-responders and predicts survival.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and insufficient response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), currently assessed after 1 year, are candidates for second-line therapy. The aims of this study are to assess biochemical response pattern and determine the utility of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) at six months as a predictor of insufficient response. METHODS: UDCA-treated patients in the GLOBAL PBC database with available liver biochemistries at one year were included. POISE criteria were used to assess response to treatment, defined as ALP <1.67 × upper limit of normal (ULN) and normal total bilirubin at one year. Various thresholds of ALP at six months were evaluated to predict insufficient response based on negative predictive value (NPV) and that with nearest to 90% NPV was selected. RESULTS: For the study, 1362 patients were included, 1232 (90.5%) female, mean age of 54 years. The POISE criteria were met by 56.4% (n = 768) of patients at one year. The median ALP (IQR) of those who met POISE criteria compared to those who did not was 1.05 × ULN (0.82-1.33) vs. 2.37 × ULN (1.72-3.69) at six months (p < .001). Of 235 patients with serum ALP >1.9 × ULN at six months, 89% did not achieve POISE criteria (NPV) after one year of UDCA. Of those with insufficient response by POISE criteria at one year, 210 (67%) had an ALP >1.9 × ULN at six months and thus would have been identified early. CONCLUSIONS: We can identify patients for second-line therapy at six months using an ALP threshold of 1.9 × ULN, given that approximately 90% of these patients are non-responders according to POISE criteria.

Impact of Hepatitis E Virus Screening in the UK Deceased Organ Donor Population.

Universal Hepatitis E Virus (HEV) screening of deceased organ donors was implemented by the UK national organ procurement organisation in October 2017. Donor testing for HEV infection is done post-transplant; detection of HEV ribonucleic acid (RNA) in donor plasma is therefore not a contra-indication for organ donation, with the result being used to inform recipient management. Immediate post-transplant detection of donor HEV viraemia triggers notification to transplant centres. Follow up of liver and kidney recipients has shown that transmission through solid organs is very efficient, particularly through liver grafts, as expected; no other organ types were transplanted in this cohort. Although donors with higher plasma viral load (VL > 103 IU/mL) were invariably associated with recipient infection, transmission was also documented at lower VL levels. Knowledge of donor HEV status has led to identification of transmission of infection via solid organ grafts followed by close patient monitoring and informed clinical management decisions. The purpose of this strategy is to allow early detection of infection and recurrence and treatment to circumvent the risk of accelerated liver damage from chronic HEV infection due to undiagnosed, inadvertent donor-derived transmission of infection.

Where Are We Now with Liver Transplantation in Neuroendocrine Neoplasms? The Place of Liver Transplantation for Grades 1 and 2 Well-Differentiated Unresectable Liver Metastatic Neuroendocrine Tumours.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This review outlines the role of liver transplantation in selected patients with unresectable neuroendocrine tumour liver metastases. It discusses the international consensus on eligibility criteria and outlines the efforts taking place in the UK and Ireland to develop effective national liver transplant programmes for neuroendocrine tumour patients. RECENT FINDINGS: In the early history of liver transplantation, indications included cancer metastases to the liver as well as primaries of liver origin. Often, liver transplantation was a salvage procedure. The early results were disappointing, including in patients with neuroendocrine tumours. These data discouraged the widespread adoption of liver transplantation for neuroendocrine tumour liver metastases (NET LM). A few centres persisted in performing liver transplantation for patients with NET LM and in determining parameters predictive of good outcomes. Their work has provided evidence for benefit of liver transplantation in a selected group of patients with NET LM. Liver transplantation for NET LM is now accepted as a valid indication by many professional bodies, including the European Neuroendocrine Tumour Society (ENETS) and the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS). It is nevertheless rarely utilised. The UK and the Republic of Ireland are commencing a pilot programme of liver transplantation in selected patients. This programme will help develop the expertise and infrastructure to make liver transplantation for NET LM a routine procedure.

Liver transplantation for isolated unresectable colorectal liver metastases - Protocol for a service evaluation in the United Kingdom - UKCoMET study.

BACKGROUND: Liver transplantation (LT) for unresectable colorectal liver metastases (CRCLM) demonstrates good overall survival for selected patients in contemporary studies, with 5-year survival of 80%. A Fixed Term Working Group (FTWG), set up by NHS Blood and Transplant (NHSBT) Liver Advisory Group (LAG), advised whether CRCLM should be considered for LT in United Kingdom. Their recommendation was that LT may be undertaken for isolated and unresectable CRCLM using strict selection criteria as a national clinical service evaluation. METHODS: Opinions were sought from colorectal cancer/LT patient representatives, experts in colorectal cancer surgery/oncology, LT surgery, hepatology, hepatobiliary radiology, pathology, and nuclear medicine, and appropriate patient selection criteria, referral and transplant listing pathways were identified. RESULTS: This paper summarises selection criteria for LT in United Kingdom for isolated and unresectable CRCLM patients, and highlights referral framework and pre-transplant assessment criteria. Finally, oncology-specific outcome measures to be utilised for assessing applicability of LT are described. CONCLUSION: This service evaluation represents a significant development for colorectal cancer patients in United Kingdom and a meaningful step forward in the field of transplant oncology. This paper details the protocol for the pilot study, scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter of 2022 in United Kingdom.

Hepatobiliary phenotypes of adults with alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency.

OBJECTIVE: Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) is a common, potentially lethal inborn disorder caused by mutations in alpha-1 antitrypsin (AAT). Homozygosity for the 'Pi*Z' variant of AAT (Pi*ZZ genotype) causes lung and liver disease, whereas heterozygous 'Pi*Z' carriage (Pi*MZ genotype) predisposes to gallstones and liver fibrosis. The clinical significance of the more common 'Pi*S' variant remains largely undefined and no robust data exist on the prevalence of liver tumours in AATD. DESIGN: Baseline phenotypes of AATD individuals and non-carriers were analysed in 482 380 participants in the UK Biobank. 1104 participants of a multinational cohort (586 Pi*ZZ, 239 Pi*SZ, 279 non-carriers) underwent a comprehensive clinical assessment. Associations were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, diabetes and alcohol consumption. RESULTS: Among UK Biobank participants, Pi*ZZ individuals displayed the highest liver enzyme values, the highest occurrence of liver fibrosis/cirrhosis (adjusted OR (aOR)=21.7 (8.8-53.7)) and primary liver cancer (aOR=44.5 (10.8-183.6)). Subjects with Pi*MZ genotype had slightly elevated liver enzymes and moderately increased odds for liver fibrosis/cirrhosis (aOR=1.7 (1.2-2.2)) and cholelithiasis (aOR=1.3 (1.2-1.4)). Individuals with homozygous Pi*S mutation (Pi*SS genotype) harboured minimally elevated alanine aminotransferase values, but no other hepatobiliary abnormalities. Pi*SZ participants displayed higher liver enzymes, more frequent liver fibrosis/cirrhosis (aOR=3.1 (1.1-8.2)) and primary liver cancer (aOR=6.6 (1.6-26.9)). The higher fibrosis burden was confirmed in a multinational cohort. Male sex, age ≥50 years, obesity and the presence of diabetes were associated with significant liver fibrosis. CONCLUSION: Our study defines the hepatobiliary phenotype of individuals with the most relevant AATD genotypes including their predisposition to liver tumours, thereby allowing evidence-based advice and individualised hepatological surveillance.

Liver stiffness measurement by vibration-controlled transient elastography improves outcome prediction in primary biliary cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) has been shown to predict outcomes of patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) in small-size studies. We aimed to validate the prognostic value of LSM in a large cohort study. METHODS: We performed an international, multicentre, retrospective follow-up study of 3,985 patients with PBC seen at 23 centres in 12 countries. Eligibility criteria included at least 1 reliable LSM by VCTE and a follow-up ≥ 1 year. Independent derivation (n = 2,740) and validation (n = 568) cohorts were built. The primary endpoint was time to poor clinical outcomes defined as liver-related complications, liver transplantation, or death. Hazard ratios (HRs) with CIs were determined using a time-dependent multivariable Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: LSM was independently associated with poor clinical outcomes in the derivation (5,324 LSMs, mean follow-up 5.0 ± 3.1 years) and validation (1,470 LSMs, mean follow-up 5.0 ± 2.8 years) cohorts: adjusted HRs (95% CI) per additional kPa were 1.040 (1.026-1.054) and 1.042 (1.029-1.056), respectively (p <0.0001 for both). Adjusted C-statistics (95% CI) at baseline were 0.83 (0.79-0.87) and 0.92 (0.89-0.95), respectively. Between 5 and 30 kPa, the log-HR increased as a monotonic function of LSM. The predictive value of LSM was stable in time. LSM improved the prognostic ability of biochemical response criteria, fibrosis scores, and prognostic scores. The 8 kPa and 15 kPa cut-offs optimally separated low-, medium-, and high-risk groups. Forty percent of patients were at medium to high risk according to LSM. CONCLUSIONS: LSM by VCTE is a major, independent, validated predictor of PBC outcome. Its value as a surrogate endpoint for clinical benefit in PBC should be considered. LAY SUMMARY: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronic autoimmune disease, wherein the body's immune system mistakenly attacks the bile ducts. PBC progresses gradually, so surrogate markers (markers that predict clinically relevant outcomes like the need for a transplant or death long before the event occurs) are often needed to expedite the drug development and approval process. Herein, we show that liver stiffness measurement is a strong predictor of clinical outcomes and could be a useful surrogate endpoint in PBC trials.

New dimensions for hospital services and early detection of disease: a Review from the Lancet Commission into liver disease in the UK.

This Review, in addressing the unacceptably high mortality of patients with liver disease admitted to acute hospitals, reinforces the need for integrated clinical services. The masterplan described is based on regional, geographically sited liver centres, each linked to four to six surrounding district general hospitals-a pattern of care similar to that successfully introduced for stroke services. The plan includes the establishment of a lead and deputy lead clinician in each acute hospital, preferably a hepatologist or gastroenterologist with a special interest in liver disease, who will have prime responsibility for organising the care of admitted patients with liver disease on a 24/7 basis. Essential for the plan is greater access to intensive care units and high-dependency units, in line with the reconfiguration of emergency care due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This Review strongly recommends full implementation of alcohol care teams in hospitals and improved working links with acute medical services. We also endorse recommendations from paediatric liver services to improve overall survival figures by diagnosing biliary atresia earlier based on stool colour charts and better caring for patients with impaired cognitive ability and developmental mental health problems. Pilot studies of earlier diagnosis have shown encouraging progress, with 5-6% of previously undiagnosed cases of severe fibrosis or cirrhosis identified through use of a portable FibroScan in primary care. Similar approaches to the detection of early asymptomatic disease are described in accounts from the devolved nations, and the potential of digital technology in improving the value of clinical consultation and screening programmes in primary care is highlighted. The striking contribution of comorbidities, particularly obesity and diabetes (with excess alcohol consumption known to be a major factor in obesity), to mortality in COVID-19 reinforces the need for fiscal and other long delayed regulatory measures to reduce the prevalence of obesity. These measures include the food sugar levy and the introduction of the minimum unit price policy to reduce alcohol consumption. Improving public health, this Review emphasises, will not only mitigate the severity of further waves of COVID-19, but is crucial to reducing the unacceptable burden from liver disease in the UK.

The Serum Proteome and Ursodeoxycholic Acid Response in Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Stratified therapy has entered clinical practice in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), with routine use of second-line therapy in nonresponders to first-line therapy with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). The mechanism for nonresponse to UDCA remains, however, unclear and we lack mechanistic serum markers. The UK-PBC study was established to explore the biological basis of UDCA nonresponse in PBC and identify markers to enhance treatment. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Discovery serum proteomics (Olink) with targeted multiplex validation were carried out in 526 subjects from the UK-PBC cohort and 97 healthy controls. In the discovery phase, untreated PBC patients (n = 68) exhibited an inflammatory proteome that is typically reduced in scale, but not resolved, with UDCA therapy (n = 416 treated patients). Nineteen proteins remained at a significant expression level (defined using stringent criteria) in UDCA-treated patients, six of them representing a tightly linked profile of chemokines (including CCL20, known to be released by biliary epithelial cells (BECs) undergoing senescence in PBC). All showed significant differential expression between UDCA responders and nonresponders in both the discovery and validation cohorts. A linear discriminant analysis, using serum levels of C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 11 and C-C motif chemokine ligand 20 as markers of responder status, indicated a high level of discrimination with an AUC of 0.91 (CI, 0.83-0.91). CONCLUSIONS: UDCA under-response in PBC is characterized by elevation of serum chemokines potentially related to cellular senescence and was previously shown to be released by BECs in PBC, suggesting a potential role in the pathogenesis of high-risk disease. These also have potential for development as biomarkers for identification of high-risk disease, and their clinical utility as biomarkers should be evaluated further in prospective studies.

A coordinated national UK liver transplant program response, prioritizing waitlist recipients with the highest need, provided excellent outcomes during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: Healthcare provision has been severely affected by COVID-19, with specific challenges in organ transplantation. Here, we describe the coordinated response to, and outcomes during the first wave, across all UK liver transplant (LT) centers. METHODS: Several policy changes affecting the liver transplant processes were agreed upon. These included donor age restrictions and changes to offering. A "high-urgency" (HU) category was established, prioritizing only those with UKELD > 60, HCC reaching transplant criteria, and others likely to die within 90 days. Outcomes were compared with the same period in 2018 and 2019. RESULTS: The retrieval rate for deceased donor livers (71% vs. 54%; P < .0001) and conversion from offer to completed transplant (63% vs. 48%; P < .0001) was significantly higher. Pediatric LT activity was maintained; there was a significant reduction in adult (42%) and total (36%) LT. Almost all adult LT were super-urgent (n = 15) or HU (n = 133). We successfully prioritized those with highest illness severity with no reduction in 90-day patient (P = .89) or graft survival (P = .98). There was a small (5% compared with 3%; P = .0015) increase in deaths or removals from the waitlist, mainly amongst HU cohort. CONCLUSIONS: We successfully prioritized LT recipients in highest need, maintaining excellent outcomes, and waitlist mortality was only marginally increased.

Outcomes After Liver Transplantation With Incidental Cholangiocarcinoma.

Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is currently a contraindication to liver transplantation (LT) in the United Kingdom (UK). Incidental CCA occurs rarely in some patients undergoing LT. We report on retrospective outcomes of patients with incidental CCA from six UK LT centres. Cases were identified from pathology records. Data regarding tumour characteristics and post-transplant survival were collected. CCA was classified by TNM staging and anatomical location. 95 patients who underwent LT between 1988-2020 were identified. Median follow-up after LT was 2.1 years (14 days-18.6 years). Most patients were male (68.4%), median age at LT was 53 (IQR 46-62), and the majority had underlying PSC (61%). Overall median survival after LT was 4.4 years. Survival differed by tumour site: 1-, 3-, and 5-year estimated survival was 82.1%, 68.7%, and 57.1%, respectively, in intrahepatic CCA (n = 40) and 58.5%, 42.6%, and 30.2% in perihilar CCA (n = 42; p = 0.06). 1-, 3-, and 5-year estimated survival was 95.8%, 86.5%, and 80.6%, respectively, in pT1 tumours (28.2% of cohort), and 65.8%, 44.7%, and 31.1%, respectively, in pT2-4 (p = 0.018). Survival after LT for recipients with incidental CCA is inferior compared to usual outcomes for LT in the United Kingdom. LT for earlier stage CCA has similar survival to LT for hepatocellular cancer, and intrahepatic CCAs have better survival compared to perihilar CCAs. These observations may support LT for CCA in selected cases.

Unacceptable failures: the final report of the Lancet Commission into liver disease in the UK.

This final report of the Lancet Commission into liver disease in the UK stresses the continuing increase in burden of liver disease from excess alcohol consumption and obesity, with high levels of hospital admissions which are worsening in deprived areas. Only with comprehensive food and alcohol strategies based on fiscal and regulatory measures (including a minimum unit price for alcohol, the alcohol duty escalator, and an extension of the sugar levy on food content) can the disease burden be curtailed. Following introduction of minimum unit pricing in Scotland, alcohol sales fell by 3%, with the greatest effect on heavy drinkers of low-cost alcohol products. We also discuss the major contribution of obesity and alcohol to the ten most common cancers as well as measures outlined by the departing Chief Medical Officer to combat rising levels of obesity-the highest of any country in the west. Mortality of severely ill patients with liver disease in district general hospitals is unacceptably high, indicating the need to develop a masterplan for improving hospital care. We propose a plan based around specialist hospital centres that are linked to district general hospitals by operational delivery networks. This plan has received strong backing from the British Association for Study of the Liver and British Society of Gastroenterology, but is held up at NHS England. The value of so-called day-case care bundles to reduce high hospital readmission rates with greater care in the community is described, along with examples of locally derived schemes for the early detection of disease and, in particular, schemes to allow general practitioners to refer patients directly for elastography assessment. New funding arrangements for general practitioners will be required if these proposals are to be taken up more widely around the country. Understanding of the harm to health from lifestyle causes among the general population is low, with a poor knowledge of alcohol consumption and dietary guidelines. The Lancet Commission has serious doubts about whether the initiatives described in the Prevention Green Paper, with the onus placed on the individual based on the use of information technology and the latest in behavioural science, will be effective. We call for greater coordination between official and non-official bodies that have highlighted the unacceptable disease burden from liver disease in England in order to present a single, strong voice to the higher echelons of government.