Associations Between Extreme Temperatures and Cardiovascular Cause-Specific Mortality: Results From 27 Countries.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Existing studies on the association between temperatures and cardiovascular deaths have been limited in geographic zones and have generally considered associations with total cardiovascular deaths rather than cause-specific cardiovascular deaths. METHODS: We used unified data collection protocols within the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Network to assemble a database of daily counts of specific cardiovascular causes of death from 567 cities in 27 countries across 5 continents in overlapping periods ranging from 1979 to 2019. City-specific daily ambient temperatures were obtained from weather stations and climate reanalysis models. To investigate cardiovascular mortality associations with extreme hot and cold temperatures, we fit case-crossover models in each city and then used a mixed-effects meta-analytic framework to pool individual city estimates. Extreme temperature percentiles were compared with the minimum mortality temperature in each location. Excess deaths were calculated for a range of extreme temperature days. RESULTS: The analyses included deaths from any cardiovascular cause (32 154 935), ischemic heart disease (11 745 880), stroke (9 351 312), heart failure (3 673 723), and arrhythmia (670 859). At extreme temperature percentiles, heat (99th percentile) and cold (1st percentile) were associated with higher risk of dying from any cardiovascular cause, ischemic heart disease, stroke, and heart failure as compared to the minimum mortality temperature, which is the temperature associated with least mortality. Across a range of extreme temperatures, hot days (above 97.5th percentile) and cold days (below 2.5th percentile) accounted for 2.2 (95% empirical CI [eCI], 2.1-2.3) and 9.1 (95% eCI, 8.9-9.2) excess deaths for every 1000 cardiovascular deaths, respectively. Heart failure was associated with the highest excess deaths proportion from extreme hot and cold days with 2.6 (95% eCI, 2.4-2.8) and 12.8 (95% eCI, 12.2-13.1) for every 1000 heart failure deaths, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Across a large, multinational sample, exposure to extreme hot and cold temperatures was associated with a greater risk of mortality from multiple common cardiovascular conditions. The intersections between extreme temperatures and cardiovascular health need to be thoroughly characterized in the present day-and especially under a changing climate.

Global, regional, and national burden of heatwave-related mortality from 1990 to 2019: A three-stage modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The regional disparity of heatwave-related mortality over a long period has not been sufficiently assessed across the globe, impeding the localisation of adaptation planning and risk management towards climate change. We quantified the global mortality burden associated with heatwaves at a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° and the temporal change from 1990 to 2019. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected data on daily deaths and temperature from 750 locations of 43 countries or regions, and 5 meta-predictors in 0.5°×0.5° resolution across the world. Heatwaves were defined as location-specific daily mean temperature ≥95th percentiles of year-round temperature range with duration ≥2 days. We first estimated the location-specific heatwave-mortality association. Secondly, a multivariate meta-regression was fitted between location-specific associations and 5 meta-predictors, which was in the third stage used with grid cell-specific meta-predictors to predict grid cell-specific association. Heatwave-related excess deaths were calculated for each grid and aggregated. During 1990 to 2019, 0.94% (95% CI: 0.68-1.19) of deaths [i.e., 153,078 cases (95% eCI: 109,950-194,227)] per warm season were estimated to be from heatwaves, accounting for 236 (95% eCI: 170-300) deaths per 10 million residents. The ratio between heatwave-related excess deaths and all premature deaths per warm season remained relatively unchanged over the 30 years, while the number of heatwave-related excess deaths per 10 million residents per warm season declined by 7.2% per decade in comparison to the 30-year average. Locations with the highest heatwave-related death ratio and rate were in Southern and Eastern Europe or areas had polar and alpine climates, and/or their residents had high incomes. The temporal change of heatwave-related mortality burden showed geographic disparities, such that locations with tropical climate or low incomes were observed with the greatest decline. The main limitation of this study was the lack of data from certain regions, e.g., Arabian Peninsula and South Asia. CONCLUSIONS: Heatwaves were associated with substantial mortality burden that varied spatiotemporally over the globe in the past 30 years. The findings indicate the potential benefit of governmental actions to enhance health sector adaptation and resilience, accounting for inequalities across communities.

A Cluster-Randomized Trial of Hydroxychloroquine for Prevention of Covid-19.

BACKGROUND: Current strategies for preventing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection are limited to nonpharmacologic interventions. Hydroxychloroquine has been proposed as a postexposure therapy to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), but definitive evidence is lacking. METHODS: We conducted an open-label, cluster-randomized trial involving asymptomatic contacts of patients with polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR)-confirmed Covid-19 in Catalonia, Spain. We randomly assigned clusters of contacts to the hydroxychloroquine group (which received the drug at a dose of 800 mg once, followed by 400 mg daily for 6 days) or to the usual-care group (which received no specific therapy). The primary outcome was PCR-confirmed, symptomatic Covid-19 within 14 days. The secondary outcome was SARS-CoV-2 infection, defined by symptoms compatible with Covid-19 or a positive PCR test regardless of symptoms. Adverse events were assessed for up to 28 days. RESULTS: The analysis included 2314 healthy contacts of 672 index case patients with Covid-19 who were identified between March 17 and April 28, 2020. A total of 1116 contacts were randomly assigned to receive hydroxychloroquine and 1198 to receive usual care. Results were similar in the hydroxychloroquine and usual-care groups with respect to the incidence of PCR-confirmed, symptomatic Covid-19 (5.7% and 6.2%, respectively; risk ratio, 0.86 [95% confidence interval, 0.52 to 1.42]). In addition, hydroxychloroquine was not associated with a lower incidence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission than usual care (18.7% and 17.8%, respectively). The incidence of adverse events was higher in the hydroxychloroquine group than in the usual-care group (56.1% vs. 5.9%), but no treatment-related serious adverse events were reported. CONCLUSIONS: Postexposure therapy with hydroxychloroquine did not prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection or symptomatic Covid-19 in healthy persons exposed to a PCR-positive case patient. (Funded by the crowdfunding campaign YoMeCorono and others; BCN-PEP-CoV2 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04304053.).

High Summer Temperatures and Heat Stroke Mortality in Spain.

BACKGROUND: Heat stroke is a significant cause of mortality in response to high summer temperatures. There is limited evidence on the pattern and magnitude of the association between temperature and heat stroke mortality. We examined this association in Spain, using data from a 27-year follow-up period. METHODS: We used a space-time-stratified case-crossover design. We analyzed data using conditional quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag nonlinear models. RESULTS: Spain recorded a total of 285 heat stroke deaths between 1990 and 2016. Heat stroke deaths occurred in 6% of the days in the summer months. The mean temperature was, on average, 5 °C higher on days when a heat stroke was recorded than on days without heat stroke deaths. The overall relative risk was 1.74 (95% confidence interval = 1.54, 1.96) for a 1 °C rise in mean temperature above the threshold of 16 °C, at which a heat stroke death was first recorded. We observed lagged effects as long as 10 days. CONCLUSIONS: Although heat stroke represents a small fraction of total heat-attributable mortality during the summer, it is strongly associated with high temperatures, providing an immediately visible warning of heat-related risk.

Influence of comorbidity on mortality in patients with epilepsy and psychogenic nonepileptic seizures.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to determine the contribution of comorbidities to excess psychogenic nonepileptic seizures (PNES) mortality. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted of tertiary epilepsy outpatients from St. Vincent's Hospital Melbourne, Australia with an 8:1 comparison cohort, matched by age, sex, and socioeconomic status (SES) to national administrative databases between 2007 and 2017. Privacy-preserving data linkage was undertaken with the national prescription, National Death Index, and National Coronial Information System. Forty-five comorbid disease classes were derived by applying the Australian validated RxRisk-V to all dispensed prescriptions. We fitted Cox proportional hazard models controlling for age, sex, SES, comorbidity, disease duration, and number of concomitant antiseizure medications, as a marker of disease severity. We also performed a parallel forward-selection change in estimate strategy to explore which specific comorbidities contributed to the largest changes in the hazard ratio. RESULTS: A total of 13 488 participants were followed for a median 3.2 years (interquartile range = 2.4-4.0 years), including 1628 tertiary epilepsy outpatients, 1384 patients with epilepsy, 176 with PNES, and 59 with both. Eighty-two percent of epileptic seizures and 92% of typical PNES events were captured in an epilepsy monitoring unit. The age-/sex-/SES-adjusted hazard ratio was elevated for epilepsy (4.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.36-6.68) and PNES (3.46, 95% CI = 1.38-8.68) and remained elevated for epilepsy (3.21, 95% CI = 2.22-4.63) but not PNES (2.15, 95% CI = .77-6.04) after comorbidity adjustment. PNES had more pre-existing comorbidities (p = .0007), with a three times greater median weighted Rx-RiskV score. Psychotic illness, opioid analgesia, malignancies, and nonopioid analgesia had the greatest influence on PNES comorbid risk. SIGNIFICANCE: Higher comorbidity appears to explain the excess PNES mortality and may represent either a wider underrecognized somatoform disorder or a psychological response to physical illness. Better understanding and management of the bidirectional relationship of these wider somatic treatments in PNES could potentially reduce the risk of death.

Long-term trends in mortality risk associated with short-term exposure to air pollution in 10 Japanese cities between 1977 and 2015.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Short-term associations between air pollution and mortality have been well reported in Japan, but the historical changes in mortality risk remain unknown. We examined temporal changes in the mortality risks associated with short-term exposure to four criteria air pollutants in selected Japanese cities. METHODS: We collected daily mortality data for non-accidental causes (n = 5,748,206), cardiovascular (n = 1,938,743) and respiratory diseases (n = 777,266), and air pollutants (sulfur dioxide [SO2], nitrogen dioxide [NO2], suspended particulate matter [SPM], and oxidants [Ox]) in 10 cities from 1977 to 2015. We performed two-stage analysis with 5-year stratification to estimate the relative risk (RR) of mortality per 10-unit increase in the 2-day moving average of air pollutant concentrations. In the first stage, city-specific associations were assessed using a quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression model. In the second stage, city-specific estimates were pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Linear trend and ratio of relative risks (RRR) were computed to examine temporal changes. RESULTS: When stratifying the analysis by every 5 years, average concentrations in each sub-period decreased for SO2, NO2, and SPM (14.2-2.3 ppb, 29.4-17.5 ppb, 52.1-20.6 µg/m3, respectively) but increased for Ox (29.1-39.1 ppb) over the study period. We found evidence of a negative linear trend in the risk of cardiovascular mortality associated with SPM across sub-periods. However, the risks of non-accidental and respiratory mortality per 10-unit increase in SPM concentration were significantly higher in the most recent period than in the earliest period. Other gaseous pollutants did not show such temporal risk change. The risks posed by these pollutants were slightly to moderately heterogeneous in the different cities. CONCLUSIONS: The mortality risks associated with short-term exposure to SPM changed, with different trends by cause of death, in 10 cities over 39 years whereas the risks for other gaseous pollutants were relatively stable.

Climate change and human health in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East: Literature review, research priorities and policy suggestions.

Human health is linked to climatic factors in complex ways, and climate change can have profound direct and indirect impacts on the health status of any given region. Susceptibility to climate change is modulated by biological, ecological and socio-political factors such as age, gender, geographic location, socio-economic status, occupation, health status and housing conditions, among other. In the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME), climatic factors known to affect human health include extreme heat, water shortages and air pollution. Furthermore, the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) and the health consequences of population displacement are also influenced by climate change in this region. To inform future policies for adaptation and mitigation measures, and based on an extensive review of the available knowledge, we recommend several research priorities for the region. These include the generation of more empirical evidence on exposure-response functions involving climate change and specific health outcomes, the development of appropriate methodologies to evaluate the physical and psychological effects of climate change on vulnerable populations, determining how climate change alters the ecological determinants of human health, improving our understanding of the effects of long-term exposure to heat stress and air pollution, and evaluating the interactions between adaptation and mitigation strategies. Because national boundaries do not limit most climate-related factors expected to impact human health, we propose that adaptation/mitigation policies must have a regional scope, and therefore require collaborative efforts among EMME nations. Policy suggestions include a decisive region-wide decarbonisation, the integration of environmentally driven morbidity and mortality data throughout the region, advancing the development and widespread use of affordable technologies for the production and management of drinking water by non-traditional means, the development of comprehensive strategies to improve the health status of displaced populations, and fostering regional networks for monitoring and controlling the spread of infectious diseases and disease vectors.

Temporal variation of the temperature-mortality association in Spain: a nationwide analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although adaptation to continuously rising ambient temperatures is an emerging topic and has been widely studied at a global scale, detailed analysis of the joint indicators for long-term adaptation in Spain are scarce. This study aims to explore temporal variations of the minimum mortality temperature and mortality burden from heat and cold between 1979 and 2018. METHODS: We collected individual all-cause mortality and climate reanalysis data for 4 decades at a daily time step. To estimate the temperature-mortality association for each decade, we fitted a quasi-Poisson time-series regression model using a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, controlling for trends and day of the week. We also calculated attributable mortality fractions by age and sex for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponds to the minimum mortality in each period. RESULTS: We analysed over 14 million deaths registered in Spain between 1979 and 2018. The optimum temperature estimated at a nationwide scale declined from 21 °C in 1979-1988 to 16 °C in 1999-2008, and raised to 18 °C in 2009-2018. The mortality burden from moderate cold showed a 3-fold reduction down to 2.4% in 2009-2018. Since 1988-1999, the mortality risk attributable to moderate (extreme) heat reduced from 0.9% (0.8%) to 0.6% (0.5%). The mortality risk due to heat in women was almost 2 times larger than in men, and did not decrease over time. CONCLUSION: Despite the progressively warmer temperatures in Spain, we observed a persistent flattening of the exposure-response curves, which marked an expansion of the uncertainty range of the optimal temperatures. Adaptation has been produced to some extent in a non-uniform manner with a substantial decrease in cold-related mortality, while for heat it became more apparent in the most recent decade only.

Coarse Particulate Air Pollution and Daily Mortality: A Global Study in 205 Cities.

Rationale: The associations between ambient coarse particulate matter (PM2.5-10) and daily mortality are not fully understood on a global scale. Objectives: To evaluate the short-term associations between PM2.5-10 and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide. Methods: We collected daily mortality (total, cardiovascular, and respiratory) and air pollution data from 205 cities in 20 countries/regions. Concentrations of PM2.5-10 were computed as the difference between inhalable and fine PM. A two-stage time-series analytic approach was applied, with overdispersed generalized linear models and multilevel meta-analysis. We fitted two-pollutant models to test the independent effect of PM2.5-10 from copollutants (fine PM, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, ozone, and carbon monoxide). Exposure-response relationship curves were pooled, and regional analyses were conducted. Measurements and Main Results: A 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5-10 concentration on lag 0-1 day was associated with increments of 0.51% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.18%-0.84%), 0.43% (95% CI, 0.15%-0.71%), and 0.41% (95% CI, 0.06%-0.77%) in total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. The associations varied by country and region. These associations were robust to adjustment by all copollutants in two-pollutant models, especially for PM2.5. The exposure-response curves for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality were positive, with steeper slopes at lower exposure ranges and without discernible thresholds. Conclusions: This study provides novel global evidence on the robust and independent associations between short-term exposure to ambient PM2.5-10 and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, suggesting the need to establish a unique guideline or regulatory limit for daily concentrations of PM2.5-10.

Ambient Particulate Air Pollution and Daily Mortality in 652 Cities.

BACKGROUND: The systematic evaluation of the results of time-series studies of air pollution is challenged by differences in model specification and publication bias. METHODS: We evaluated the associations of inhalable particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 µm or less (PM10) and fine PM with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 µm or less (PM2.5) with daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries or regions. Daily data on mortality and air pollution were collected from 652 cities in 24 countries or regions. We used overdispersed generalized additive models with random-effects meta-analysis to investigate the associations. Two-pollutant models were fitted to test the robustness of the associations. Concentration-response curves from each city were pooled to allow global estimates to be derived. RESULTS: On average, an increase of 10 µg per cubic meter in the 2-day moving average of PM10 concentration, which represents the average over the current and previous day, was associated with increases of 0.44% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39 to 0.50) in daily all-cause mortality, 0.36% (95% CI, 0.30 to 0.43) in daily cardiovascular mortality, and 0.47% (95% CI, 0.35 to 0.58) in daily respiratory mortality. The corresponding increases in daily mortality for the same change in PM2.5 concentration were 0.68% (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.77), 0.55% (95% CI, 0.45 to 0.66), and 0.74% (95% CI, 0.53 to 0.95). These associations remained significant after adjustment for gaseous pollutants. Associations were stronger in locations with lower annual mean PM concentrations and higher annual mean temperatures. The pooled concentration-response curves showed a consistent increase in daily mortality with increasing PM concentration, with steeper slopes at lower PM concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: Our data show independent associations between short-term exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 and daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in more than 600 cities across the globe. These data reinforce the evidence of a link between mortality and PM concentration established in regional and local studies. (Funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and others.).

Differential Mortality Risks Associated With PM2.5 Components: A Multi-Country, Multi-City Study.

BACKGROUND: The association between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and mortality widely differs between as well as within countries. Differences in PM2.5 composition can play a role in modifying the effect estimates, but there is little evidence about which components have higher impacts on mortality. METHODS: We applied a 2-stage analysis on data collected from 210 locations in 16 countries. In the first stage, we estimated location-specific relative risks (RR) for mortality associated with daily total PM2.5 through time series regression analysis. We then pooled these estimates in a meta-regression model that included city-specific logratio-transformed proportions of seven PM2.5 components as well as meta-predictors derived from city-specific socio-economic and environmental indicators. RESULTS: We found associations between RR and several PM2.5 components. Increasing the ammonium (NH4+) proportion from 1% to 22%, while keeping a relative average proportion of other components, increased the RR from 1.0063 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 1.0030, 1.0097) to 1.0102 (95% CI = 1.0070, 1.0135). Conversely, an increase in nitrate (NO3-) from 1% to 71% resulted in a reduced RR, from 1.0100 (95% CI = 1.0067, 1.0133) to 1.0037 (95% CI = 0.9998, 1.0077). Differences in composition explained a substantial part of the heterogeneity in PM2.5 risk. CONCLUSIONS: These findings contribute to the identification of more hazardous emission sources. Further work is needed to understand the health impacts of PM2.5 components and sources given the overlapping sources and correlations among many components.

Role of meteorological factors on SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence in Italy and Spain before the vaccination campaign. A multi-city time series study.

Numerous studies have been conducted worldwide to investigate if an association exists between meteorological factors and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection incidence. Although research studies provide conflicting results, which can be partially explained by different methods used, some clear trends emerge on the role of weather conditions and SARS-CoV-2 infection, especially for temperature and humidity. This study sheds more light on the relationship between meteorological factors and SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence in 23 Italian and 52 Spanish cities. For the purposes of this study, daily air temperature, absolute and relative humidity, wind speed, ultraviolet radiation, and rainfall are considered exposure variables. We conducted a two-stage meta-regression. In the first stage, we estimated the exposure-response association through time series regression analysis at the municipal level. In the second stage, we pooled the association parameters using a meta-analytic model. The study demonstrates an association between meteorological factors and SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence. Specifically, low levels of ambient temperatures and absolute humidity were associated with an increased relative risk. On the other hand, low and high levels of relative humidity and ultraviolet radiation were associated with a decreased relative risk. Concerning wind speed and rainfall, higher values contributed to the reduction of the risk of infection. Overall, our results contribute to a better understanding of how the meteorological factors influence the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 and should be considered in a wider context of existing robust literature that highlight the importance of measures such as social distancing, improved hygiene, face masks and vaccination campaign.

Tocolytics for delaying preterm birth: a network meta-analysis (0924).

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth is the leading cause of death in newborns and children. Tocolytic drugs aim to delay preterm birth by suppressing uterine contractions to allow time for administration of corticosteroids for fetal lung maturation, magnesium sulphate for neuroprotection, and transport to a facility with appropriate neonatal care facilities. However, there is still uncertainty about their effectiveness and safety. OBJECTIVES: To estimate relative effectiveness and safety profiles for different classes of tocolytic drugs for delaying preterm birth, and provide rankings of the available drugs. SEARCH METHODS: We searched Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth's Trials Register, ClinicalTrials.gov (21 April 2021) and reference lists of retrieved studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included all randomised controlled trials assessing effectiveness or adverse effects of tocolytic drugs for delaying preterm birth. We excluded quasi- and non-randomised trials. We evaluated all studies against predefined criteria to judge their trustworthiness. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: At least two review authors independently assessed the trials for inclusion and risk of bias, and extracted data. We performed pairwise and network meta-analyses, to determine the relative effects and rankings of all available tocolytics. We used GRADE to rate the certainty of the network meta-analysis effect estimates for each tocolytic versus placebo or no treatment. MAIN RESULTS: This network meta-analysis includes 122 trials (13,697 women) involving six tocolytic classes, combinations of tocolytics, and placebo or no treatment. Most trials included women with threatened preterm birth, singleton pregnancy, from 24 to 34 weeks of gestation. We judged 25 (20%) studies to be at low risk of bias. Overall, certainty in the evidence varied. Relative effects from network meta-analysis suggested that all tocolytics are probably effective in delaying preterm birth compared with placebo or no tocolytic treatment. Betamimetics are possibly effective in delaying preterm birth by 48 hours (risk ratio (RR) 1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05 to 1.20; low-certainty evidence), and 7 days (RR 1.14, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.25; low-certainty evidence). COX inhibitors are possibly effective in delaying preterm birth by 48 hours (RR 1.11, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.23; low-certainty evidence). Calcium channel blockers are possibly effective in delaying preterm birth by 48 hours (RR 1.16, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.24; low-certainty evidence), probably effective in delaying preterm birth by 7 days (RR 1.15, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.27; moderate-certainty evidence), and prolong pregnancy by 5 days (0.1 more to 9.2 more; high-certainty evidence). Magnesium sulphate is probably effective in delaying preterm birth by 48 hours (RR 1.12, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.23; moderate-certainty evidence). Oxytocin receptor antagonists are probably effective in delaying preterm birth by 48 hours (RR 1.13, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.22; moderate-certainty evidence), are effective in delaying preterm birth by 7 days (RR 1.18, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.30; high-certainty evidence), and possibly prolong pregnancy by 10 days (95% CI 2.3 more to 16.7 more). Nitric oxide donors are probably effective in delaying preterm birth by 48 hours (RR 1.17, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.31; moderate-certainty evidence), and 7 days (RR 1.18, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.37; moderate-certainty evidence). Combinations of tocolytics are probably effective in delaying preterm birth by 48 hours (RR 1.17, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.27; moderate-certainty evidence), and 7 days (RR 1.19, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.34; moderate-certainty evidence). Nitric oxide donors ranked highest for delaying preterm birth by 48 hours and 7 days, and delay in birth (continuous outcome), followed by calcium channel blockers, oxytocin receptor antagonists and combinations of tocolytics. Betamimetics (RR 14.4, 95% CI 6.11 to 34.1; moderate-certainty evidence), calcium channel blockers (RR 2.96, 95% CI 1.23 to 7.11; moderate-certainty evidence), magnesium sulphate (RR 3.90, 95% CI 1.09 to 13.93; moderate-certainty evidence) and combinations of tocolytics (RR 6.87, 95% CI 2.08 to 22.7; low-certainty evidence) are probably more likely to result in cessation of treatment. Calcium channel blockers possibly reduce the risk of neurodevelopmental morbidity (RR 0.51, 95% CI 0.30 to 0.85; low-certainty evidence), and respiratory morbidity (RR 0.68, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.88; low-certainty evidence), and result in fewer neonates with birthweight less than 2000 g (RR 0.49, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.87; low-certainty evidence). Nitric oxide donors possibly result in neonates with higher birthweight (mean difference (MD) 425.53 g more, 95% CI 224.32 more to 626.74 more; low-certainty evidence), fewer neonates with birthweight less than 2500 g (RR 0.40, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.69; low-certainty evidence), and more advanced gestational age (MD 1.35 weeks more, 95% CI 0.37 more to 2.32 more; low-certainty evidence). Combinations of tocolytics possibly result in fewer neonates with birthweight less than 2500 g (RR 0.74, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.93; low-certainty evidence). In terms of maternal adverse effects, betamimetics probably cause dyspnoea (RR 12.09, 95% CI 4.66 to 31.39; moderate-certainty evidence), palpitations (RR 7.39, 95% CI 3.83 to 14.24; moderate-certainty evidence), vomiting (RR 1.91, 95% CI 1.25 to 2.91; moderate-certainty evidence), possibly headache (RR 1.91, 95% CI 1.07 to 3.42; low-certainty evidence) and tachycardia (RR 3.01, 95% CI 1.17 to 7.71; low-certainty evidence) compared with placebo or no treatment. COX inhibitors possibly cause vomiting (RR 2.54, 95% CI 1.18 to 5.48; low-certainty evidence). Calcium channel blockers (RR 2.59, 95% CI 1.39 to 4.83; low-certainty evidence), and nitric oxide donors probably cause headache (RR 4.20, 95% CI 2.13 to 8.25; moderate-certainty evidence). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Compared with placebo or no tocolytic treatment, all tocolytic drug classes that we assessed (betamimetics, calcium channel blockers, magnesium sulphate, oxytocin receptor antagonists, nitric oxide donors) and their combinations were probably or possibly effective in delaying preterm birth for 48 hours, and 7 days. Tocolytic drugs were associated with a range of adverse effects (from minor to potentially severe) compared with placebo or no tocolytic treatment, although betamimetics and combination tocolytics were more likely to result in cessation of treatment. The effects of tocolytic use on neonatal outcomes such as neonatal and perinatal mortality, and on safety outcomes such as maternal and neonatal infection were uncertain.

Hydroxychloroquine for Early Treatment of Adults With Mild Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Randomized, Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: No effective treatments for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) exist. We aimed to determine whether early treatment with hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) would be efficacious for outpatients with COVID-19. METHODS: Multicenter open-label, randomized, controlled trial conducted in Catalonia, Spain, between 17 March and 26 May 2020. Patients recently diagnosed with <5-day of symptom onset were assigned to receive HCQ (800 mg on day 1 followed by 400 mg once daily for 6 days) or usual care. Outcomes were reduction of viral load in nasopharyngeal swabs up to 7 days after treatment start, disease progression up to 28 days, and time to complete resolution of symptoms. Adverse events were assessed up to 28 days. RESULTS: A total of 293 patients were eligible for intention-to-treat analysis: 157 in the control arm and 136 in the intervention arm. The mean age was 41.6 years (SD, 12.6), mean viral load at baseline was 7.90 log10 copies/mL (SD, 1.82), and median time from symptom onset to randomization was 3 days. No differences were found in the mean reduction of viral load at day 3 (-1.41 vs -1.41 log10 copies/mL in the control and intervention arm, respectively) or at day 7 (-3.37 vs -3.44). Treatment did not reduce risk of hospitalization (7.1% control vs 5.9% intervention) nor shorten the time to complete resolution of symptoms (12 days, control vs 10 days, intervention). No relevant adverse events were reported. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with mild COVID-19, no benefit was observed with HCQ beyond the usual care.

Use of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors and risk of COVID-19 requiring admission to hospital: a case-population study.

BACKGROUND: Concerns have been raised about the possibility that inhibitors of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) could predispose individuals to severe COVID-19; however, epidemiological evidence is lacking. We report the results of a case-population study done in Madrid, Spain, since the outbreak of COVID-19. METHODS: In this case-population study, we consecutively selected patients aged 18 years or older with a PCR-confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 requiring admission to hospital from seven hospitals in Madrid, who had been admitted between March 1 and March 24, 2020. As a reference group, we randomly sampled ten patients per case, individually matched for age, sex, region (ie, Madrid), and date of admission to hospital (month and day; index date), from Base de datos para la Investigación Farmacoepidemiológica en Atención Primaria (BIFAP), a Spanish primary health-care database, in its last available year (2018). We extracted information on comorbidities and prescriptions up to the month before index date (ie, current use) from electronic clinical records of both cases and controls. The outcome of interest was admission to hospital of patients with COVID-19. To minimise confounding by indication, the main analysis focused on assessing the association between COVID-19 requiring admission to hospital and use of RAAS inhibitors compared with use of other antihypertensive drugs. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs, adjusted for age, sex, and cardiovascular comorbidities and risk factors, using conditional logistic regression. The protocol of the study was registered in the EU electronic Register of Post-Authorisation Studies, EUPAS34437. FINDINGS: We collected data for 1139 cases and 11 390 population controls. Among cases, 444 (39·0%) were female and the mean age was 69·1 years (SD 15·4), and despite being matched on sex and age, a significantly higher proportion of cases had pre-existing cardiovascular disease (OR 1·98, 95% CI 1·62-2·41) and risk factors (1·46, 1·23-1·73) than did controls. Compared with users of other antihypertensive drugs, users of RAAS inhibitors had an adjusted OR for COVID-19 requiring admission to hospital of 0·94 (95% CI 0·77-1·15). No increased risk was observed with either angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (adjusted OR 0·80, 0·64-1·00) or angiotensin-receptor blockers (1·10, 0·88-1·37). Sex, age, and background cardiovascular risk did not modify the adjusted OR between use of RAAS inhibitors and COVID-19 requiring admission to hospital, whereas a decreased risk of COVID-19 requiring admission to hospital was found among patients with diabetes who were users of RAAS inhibitors (adjusted OR 0·53, 95% CI 0·34-0·80). The adjusted ORs were similar across severity degrees of COVID-19. INTERPRETATION: RAAS inhibitors do not increase the risk of COVID-19 requiring admission to hospital, including fatal cases and those admitted to intensive care units, and should not be discontinued to prevent a severe case of COVID-19. FUNDING: Instituto de Salud Carlos III.

Effects of Hot Nights on Mortality in Southern Europe.

BACKGROUND: There is strong evidence concerning the impact of heat stress on mortality, particularly from high temperatures. However, few studies to our knowledge emphasize the importance of hot nights, which may prevent necessary nocturnal rest. OBJECTIVES: In this study, we use hot-night duration and excess to predict daily cause-specific mortality in summer, using multiple cities across Southern Europe. METHODS: We fitted time series regression models to summer cause-specific mortality, including natural, respiratory, and cardiovascular causes, in 11 cities across four countries. We included a distributed lag nonlinear model with lags up to 7 days for hot night duration and excess adjusted by daily mean temperature. We summarized city-specific associations as overall-cumulative exposure-response curves at the country level using meta-analysis. RESULTS: We found positive but generally nonlinear associations between relative risk (RR) of cause-specific mortality and duration and excess of hot nights. RR of duration associated with nonaccidental mortality in Portugal was 1.29 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.07, 1.54); other associations were imprecise, but we also found positive city-specific estimates for Rome and Madrid. Risk of hot-night excess ranged from 1.12 (95% CI = 1.05, 1.20) for France to 1.37 (95% CI = 1.26, 1.48) for Portugal. Risk estimates for excess were consistently higher than for duration. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides new evidence that, over a wider range of locations, hot night indices are strongly associated with cause-specific deaths. Modeling the impact of thermal characteristics during summer nights on mortality could improve decisionmaking for preventive public health strategies.

Contrasting patterns of temperature related mortality and hospitalization by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in 52 Spanish cities.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is a severe public health challenge. Understanding to what extent fatal and non-fatal consequences of specific diseases are associated with temperature may help to improve the effectiveness of preventive public health efforts. This study examines the effects of temperature on deaths and hospital admissions by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, empathizing the difference between mortality and morbidity. METHODS: Daily counts for mortality and hospital admissions by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases were collected for the 52 provincial capital cities in Spain, between 1990 and 2014. The association with temperature in each city was investigated by means of distributed lag non-linear models using quasi-Poisson regression. City-specific exposure-response curves were pooled by multivariate random-effects meta-analysis to obtain countrywide risk estimates of mortality and hospitalizations due to heat and cold, and attributable fractions were computed. RESULTS: Heat and cold exposure were identified to be associated with increased risk of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. Heat was not found to have an impact on hospital admissions. The estimated fraction of mortality attributable to cold was of greater magnitude in hospitalizations (17.5% for cardiovascular and 12.5% for respiratory diseases) compared to deaths (9% and 2.7%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: There were noteworthy differences between temperature-related mortality and hospital admissions regarding cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, hence reinforcing the convenience of cause-specific measures to prevent temperature-related deaths.

Temperature-related effects on respiratory medical prescriptions in Spain.

BACKGROUND: The increased risk of mortality during periods of high and low temperatures has been well established. However, most of the studies used daily counts of deaths or hospitalisations as health outcomes, although they are the ones at the top of the health impact pyramid reflecting only a limited proportion of patients with the most severe cases. OBJECTIVES: This study evaluates the relationship between short-term exposure to the daily mean temperature and medication prescribed for the respiratory system in five Spanish cities. METHODS: We fitted time series regression models to cause-specific medical prescriptions, including different respiratory subgroups and age groups. We included a distributed lag non-linear model with lags up to 14 days for daily mean temperature. City-specific associations were summarised as overall-cumulative exposure-response curves. RESULTS: We found a positive association between cause-specific medical prescriptions and daily mean temperature with a non-linear inverted J- or V-shaped relationship in most cities. Between 0.3% and 0.6% of all respiratory prescriptions were attributed to cold for Madrid, Zaragoza and Pamplona, while in cities with only cold effects the attributable fractions were estimated as 19.2% for Murcia and 13.5% for Santander. Heat effects in Madrid, Zaragoza and Pamplona showed higher fractions between 8.7% and 17.2%. The estimated costs are in general higher for heat effects, showing annual values ranging between €191,905 and €311,076 for heat per 100,000 persons. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides novel evidence of the effects of the thermal environment on the prescription of medication for respiratory disorders in Spain, showing that low and high temperatures lead to an increase in the number of such prescriptions. The consumption of medication can reflect exposure to the environment with a lesser degree of severity in terms of morbidity.

Evaluation of the ERA5 reanalysis-based Universal Thermal Climate Index on mortality data in Europe.

Air temperature has been the most commonly used exposure metric in assessing relationships between thermal stress and mortality. Lack of the high-quality meteorological station data necessary to adequately characterize the thermal environment has been one of the main limitations for the use of more complex thermal indices. Global climate reanalyses may provide an ideal platform to overcome this limitation and define complex heat and cold stress conditions anywhere in the world. In this study, we explored the potential of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) based on ERA5 - the latest global climate reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) - as a health-related tool. Employing a novel ERA5-based thermal comfort dataset ERA5-HEAT, we investigated the relationships between the UTCI and daily mortality data in 21 cities across 9 European countries. We used distributed lag nonlinear models to assess exposure-response relationships between mortality and thermal conditions in individual cities. We then employed meta-regression models to pool the results for each city into four groups according to climate zone. To evaluate the performance of ERA5-based UTCI, we compared its effects on mortality with those for the station-based UTCI data. In order to assess the additional effect of the UTCI, the performance of ERA5-and station-based air temperature (T) was evaluated. Whilst generally similar heat- and cold-effects were observed for the ERA5-and station-based data in most locations, the important role of wind in the UTCI appeared in the results. The largest difference between any two datasets was found in the Southern European group of cities, where the relative risk of mortality at the 1st percentile of daily mean temperature distribution (1.29 and 1.30 according to the ERA5 vs station data, respectively) considerably exceeded the one for the daily mean UTCI (1.19 vs 1.22). These differences were mainly due to the effect of wind in the cold tail of the UTCI distribution. The comparison of exposure-response relationships between ERA5-and station-based data shows that ERA5-based UTCI may be a useful tool for definition of life-threatening thermal conditions in locations where high-quality station data are not available.

Methods for managing miscarriage: a network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Miscarriage, defined as the spontaneous loss of a pregnancy before 24 weeks' gestation, is common with approximately 25% of women experiencing a miscarriage in their lifetime. An estimated 15% of pregnancies end in miscarriage. Miscarriage can lead to serious morbidity, including haemorrhage, infection, and even death, particularly in settings without adequate healthcare provision. Early miscarriages occur during the first 14 weeks of pregnancy, and can be managed expectantly, medically or surgically. However, there is uncertainty about the relative effectiveness and risks of each option. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the relative effectiveness and safety profiles for the different management methods for early miscarriage, and to provide rankings of the available methods according to their effectiveness, safety, and side-effect profile using a network meta-analysis. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth's Trials Register (9 February 2021), ClinicalTrials.gov and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) (12 February 2021), and reference lists of retrieved studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included all randomised controlled trials assessing the effectiveness or safety of methods for miscarriage management. Early miscarriage was defined as less than or equal to 14 weeks of gestation, and included missed and incomplete miscarriage. Management of late miscarriages after 14 weeks of gestation (often referred to as intrauterine fetal deaths) was not eligible for inclusion in the review. Cluster- and quasi-randomised trials were eligible for inclusion. Randomised trials published only as abstracts were eligible if sufficient information could be retrieved. We excluded non-randomised trials. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: At least three review authors independently assessed the trials for inclusion and risk of bias, extracted data and checked them for accuracy. We estimated the relative effects and rankings for the primary outcomes of complete miscarriage and composite outcome of death or serious complications. The certainty of evidence was assessed using GRADE. Relative effects for the primary outcomes are reported subgrouped by the type of miscarriage (incomplete and missed miscarriage). We also performed pairwise meta-analyses and network meta-analysis to determine the relative effects and rankings of all available methods. MAIN RESULTS: Our network meta-analysis included 78 randomised trials involving 17,795 women from 37 countries. Most trials (71/78) were conducted in hospital settings and included women with missed or incomplete miscarriage. Across 158 trial arms, the following methods were used: 51 trial arms (33%) used misoprostol; 50 (32%) used suction aspiration; 26 (16%) used expectant management or placebo; 17 (11%) used dilatation and curettage; 11 (6%) used mifepristone plus misoprostol; and three (2%) used suction aspiration plus cervical preparation. Of these 78 studies, 71 (90%) contributed data in a usable form for meta-analysis. Complete miscarriage Based on the relative effects from the network meta-analysis of 59 trials (12,591 women), we found that five methods may be more effective than expectant management or placebo for achieving a complete miscarriage: · suction aspiration after cervical preparation (risk ratio (RR) 2.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.41 to 3.20, low-certainty evidence), · dilatation and curettage (RR 1.49, 95% CI 1.26 to 1.75, low-certainty evidence), · suction aspiration (RR 1.44, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.62, low-certainty evidence), · mifepristone plus misoprostol (RR 1.42, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.66, moderate-certainty evidence), · misoprostol (RR 1.30, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.46, low-certainty evidence). The highest ranked surgical method was suction aspiration after cervical preparation. The highest ranked non-surgical treatment was mifepristone plus misoprostol. All surgical methods were ranked higher than medical methods, which in turn ranked above expectant management or placebo. Composite outcome of death and serious complications Based on the relative effects from the network meta-analysis of 35 trials (8161 women), we found that four methods with available data were compatible with a wide range of treatment effects compared with expectant management or placebo: · dilatation and curettage (RR 0.43, 95% CI 0.17 to 1.06, low-certainty evidence), · suction aspiration (RR 0.55, 95% CI 0.23 to 1.32, low-certainty evidence), · misoprostol (RR 0.50, 95% CI 0.22 to 1.15, low-certainty evidence), · mifepristone plus misoprostol (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.31 to 1.84, low-certainty evidence). Importantly, no deaths were reported in these studies, thus this composite outcome was entirely composed of serious complications, including blood transfusions, uterine perforations, hysterectomies, and intensive care unit admissions. Expectant management and placebo ranked the lowest when compared with alternative treatment interventions. Subgroup analyses by type of miscarriage (missed or incomplete) agreed with the overall analysis in that surgical methods were the most effective treatment, followed by medical methods and then expectant management or placebo, but there are possible subgroup differences in the effectiveness of the available methods.  AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Based on relative effects from the network meta-analysis, all surgical and medical methods for managing a miscarriage may be more effective than expectant management or placebo. Surgical methods were ranked highest for managing a miscarriage, followed by medical methods, which in turn ranked above expectant management or placebo. Expectant management or placebo had the highest chance of serious complications, including the need for unplanned or emergency surgery. A subgroup analysis showed that surgical and medical methods may be more beneficial in women with missed miscarriage compared to women with incomplete miscarriage. Since type of miscarriage (missed and incomplete) appears to be a source of inconsistency and heterogeneity within these data, we acknowledge that the main network meta-analysis may be unreliable. However, we plan to explore this further in future updates and consider the primary analysis as separate networks for missed and incomplete miscarriage.