Long Exercise Test in Periodic Paralysis: A Bayesian Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: The long exercise test (LET) is used to assess the diagnosis of periodic paralysis (PP), but LET methodology and normal "cutoff" values vary. METHODS: To determine optimal LET methodology and cutoffs, we reviewed LET data (abductor digiti minimi motor response amplitude, area) from 55 patients with PP (32 genetically definite) and 125 controls. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed, and area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to compare (1) peak-to-nadir versus baseline-to-nadir methodologies and (2) amplitude versus area decrements. Using bayesian principles, we calculated optimal cutoff decrements that achieved 95% posttest probability of PP for various pretest probabilities (PreTPs). RESULTS: AUC was highest for peak-to-nadir methodology and equal for amplitude and area decrements. For PreTP ≤ 50%, optimal decrement cutoffs (peak-to-nadir) were > 40% (amplitude) or > 50% (area). DISCUSSION: For confirmation of PP, our data endorse the diagnostic utility of peak-to-nadir LET methodology using 40% amplitude or 50% area decrement cutoffs for PreTP ≤50%. Muscle Nerve 59:47-54, 2019.

Electrodiagnosis of ulnar neuropathy at the elbow (Une): a Bayesian approach.

INTRODUCTION: In ulnar neuropathy at the elbow (UNE), we determined how electrodiagnostic cutoffs [across-elbow ulnar motor conduction velocity slowing (AECV-slowing), drop in across-elbow vs. forearm CV (AECV-drop)] depend on pretest probability (PreTP). METHODS: Fifty clinically defined UNE patients and 50 controls underwent ulnar conduction testing recording abductor digiti minimi (ADM) and first dorsal interosseous (FDI), stimulating wrist, below-elbow, and 6-, 8-, and 10-cm more proximally. For various PreTPs of UNE, the cutoffs required to confirm UNE (defined as posttest probability = 95%) were determined with receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and Bayes Theorem. RESULTS: On ROC and Bayesian analyses, the ADM 10-cm montage was optimal. For PreTP = 0.25, the confirmatory cutoffs were >23 m/s (AECV-drop), and <38 m/s (AECV-slowing); for PreTP = 0.75, they were much less conservative: >14 m/s, and <47 m/s, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: (1) In UNE, electrodiagnostic cutoffs are critically dependent on PreTP; rigid cutoffs are problematic. (2) AE distances should be standardized and at least 10 cm.

Patient Assisted Intervention for Neuropathy: Comparison of Treatment in Real Life Situations (PAIN-CONTRoLS): Bayesian Adaptive Comparative Effectiveness Randomized Trial.

Importance: Cryptogenic sensory polyneuropathy (CSPN) is a common generalized slowly progressive neuropathy, second in prevalence only to diabetic neuropathy. Most patients with CSPN have significant pain. Many medications have been tried for pain reduction in CSPN, including antiepileptics, antidepressants, and sodium channel blockers. There are no comparative studies that identify the most effective medication for pain reduction in CSPN. Objective: To determine which medication (pregabalin, duloxetine, nortriptyline, or mexiletine) is most effective for reducing neuropathic pain and best tolerated in patients with CSPN. Design, Setting, and Participants: From December 1, 2014, through October 20, 2017, a bayesian adaptive, open-label randomized clinical comparative effectiveness study of pain in 402 participants with CSPN was conducted at 40 neurology care clinics. The trial included response adaptive randomization. Participants were patients with CSPN who were 30 years or older, with a pain score of 4 or greater on a numerical rating scale (range, 0-10, with higher scores indicating a higher level of pain). Participant allocation to 1 of 4 drug groups used the utility function and treatment's sample size for response adaptation randomization. At each interim analysis, a decision was made to continue enrolling (up to 400 participants) or stop the whole trial for success (80% power). Patient engagement was maintained throughout the trial, which helped guide the study and identify ways to communicate and disseminate information. Analysis was performed from December 11, 2015, to January 19, 2018. Interventions: Participants were randomized to receive nortriptyline (n = 134), duloxetine (n = 126), pregabalin (n = 73), or mexiletine (n = 69). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was a utility function that was a composite of the efficacy (participant reported pain reduction of ≥50% from baseline to week 12) and quit (participants who discontinued medication) rates. Results: Among the 402 participants (213 men [53.0%]; mean [SD] age, 60.1 [13.4] years; 343 White [85.3%]), the utility function of nortriptyline was 0.81 (95% bayesian credible interval [CrI], 0.69-0.93; 34 of 134 [25.4%] efficacious; and 51 of 134 [38.1%] quit), of duloxetine was 0.80 (95% CrI, 0.68-0.92; 29 of 126 [23.0%] efficacious; and 47 of 126 [37.3%] quit), pregabalin was 0.69 (95% CrI, 0.55-0.84; 11 of 73 [15.1%] efficacious; and 31 of 73 [42.5%] quit), and mexiletine was 0.58 (95% CrI, 0.42-0.75; 14 of 69 [20.3%] efficacious; and 40 of 69 [58.0%] quit). The probability each medication yielded the highest utility was 0.52 for nortriptyline, 0.43 for duloxetine, 0.05 for pregabalin, and 0.00 for mexiletine. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that, although there was no clearly superior medication, nortriptyline and duloxetine outperformed pregabalin and mexiletine when pain reduction and undesirable adverse effects are combined to a single end point. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02260388.

Evoked myotonia can be "dialed-up" by increasing stimulus train length in myotonic dystrophy type 1.

It is unknown how evoked myotonia varies with stimulus frequency or train length, or how it compares to voluntary myotonia in myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1). First dorsal interosseous (FDI) tetanic contractions evoked by trains of 10-20 ulnar nerve stimuli at 10-50 HZ were recorded in 10 DM1 patients and 10 normals. For comparison, maximum voluntary handgrip contractions were also recorded. An automated computer program placed cursors along the declining (relaxation) phase of the force recordings at 90% and 5% of peak force (PF) and calculated relaxation times (RTs) between these points. For all stimulus frequencies and train lengths, evoked RTs were much shorter, and evoked PFs were much greater in normals than in DM1. In normals, evoked RT was independent of stimulus frequency and train length, while in DM1 RT was longer for train lengths of 20 stimuli (mean: 9 s in DM1; 0.20 in normals) than for 10 stimuli (mean: 3 s in DM1, 0.19 in normals), but it did not change with stimulus frequency. In both groups PF increased greatly as stimulus frequency rose from 10-50 HZ but only slightly as train length rose from 10-20 stimuli. Voluntary handgrip RT (mean: 1.9 s) was less than evoked FDI RT (mean: 9 s). In DM1, evoked RT can be "dialed up" by increasing stimulus train length. Evoked myotonia testing utilizing a stimulus paradigm of at least 20 stimuli at 30-50 HZ may be useful in antimyotonic drug trials, particularly when grip RT is normal or equivocal.