Modelling the elimination of hepatitis C as a public health threat in Iceland: A goal attainable by 2020.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In Iceland a nationwide program has been launched offering direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment for everyone living with hepatitis C virus (HCV). We estimate (i) the time and treatment scale-up required to achieve the World Health Organization's HCV elimination target of an 80% reduction in incidence; and (ii) the ongoing frequency of HCV testing and harm reduction coverage among people who inject drugs (PWID) required to minimize the likelihood of future HCV outbreaks occurring. METHODS: We used a dynamic compartmental model of HCV transmission, liver disease progression and the HCV cascade of care, calibrated to reproduce the epidemic of HCV in Iceland. The model was stratified according to injecting drug use status, age and stage of engagement. Four scenarios were considered for the projections. RESULTS: The model estimated that an 80% reduction in domestic HCV incidence was achievable by 2030, 2025 or 2020 if a minimum of 55/1,000, 75/1,000 and 188/1,000 PWID were treated per year, respectively (a total of 22, 30 and 75 of the estimated 400 PWID in Iceland per year, respectively). Regardless of time frame, this required an increased number of PWID to be diagnosed to generate enough treatment demand, or a 20% scale-up of harm reduction services to complement treatment-as-prevention incidence reductions. When DAA scale-up was combined with annual antibody testing of PWID, the incidence reduction target was reached by 2024. Treatment scale-up with no other changes to current testing and harm reduction services reduced the basic reproduction number of HCV from 1.08 to 0.59, indicating that future outbreaks would be unlikely. CONCLUSION: HCV elimination in Iceland is achievable by 2020 with some additional screening of PWID. Maintaining current monitoring and harm reduction services while providing ongoing access to DAA therapy for people diagnosed with HCV would ensure that outbreaks are unlikely to occur once elimination targets have been reached. LAY SUMMARY: In Iceland, a nationwide program has been launched offering treatment for the entire population living with hepatitis C virus (HCV). A mathematical model was used to estimate the additional health system requirements to achieve the HCV elimination targets of the World Health Organization (WHO), as well as the year that this could occur. With some additional screening of people who inject drugs, Iceland could reach the WHO targets by 2020, becoming one of the first countries to achieve HCV elimination. The model estimated that once elimination targets were reached, maintaining current monitoring and harm reduction services while providing ongoing access to DAA therapy for people diagnosed with HCV would ensure that future HCV outbreaks are unlikely to occur.

Polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder associate with addiction.

We use polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for schizophrenia (SCZ) and bipolar disorder (BPD) to predict smoking, and addiction to nicotine, alcohol or drugs in individuals not diagnosed with psychotic disorders. Using PRSs for 144 609 subjects, including 10 036 individuals admitted for in-patient addiction treatment and 35 754 smokers, we find that diagnoses of various substance use disorders and smoking associate strongly with PRSs for SCZ (P = 5.3 × 10-50 -1.4 × 10-6 ) and BPD (P = 1.7 × 10-9 -1.9 × 10-3 ), showing shared genetic etiology between psychosis and addiction. Using standardized scores for SCZ and BPD scaled to a unit increase doubling the risk of the corresponding disorder, the odds ratios for alcohol and substance use disorders range from 1.19 to 1.31 for the SCZ-PRS, and from 1.07 to 1.29 for the BPD-PRS. Furthermore, we show that as regular smoking becomes more stigmatized and less prevalent, these biological risk factors gain importance as determinants of the behavior.

Alcohol consumption and liver cirrhosis mortality after lifting ban on beer sales in country with state alcohol monopoly.

BACKGROUND: The objectives were to study alcohol consumption per capita and liver cirrhosis mortality in the population of Iceland. METHODS: The Statistic Iceland website supplied alcohol sales figures and death rates. RESULTS: The alcohol consumption increased 30% during the study period 1982-2009, because of increase in beer and wine, and decrease in spirits consumption. Chronic liver cirrhosis mortality increased significantly for men when comparing the 1982-88 rates (before beer ban was lifted) with the rates for 2003-09. CONCLUSION: The findings do not support the suggestion that spirits consumption rather than the total alcohol consumption affect the cirrhosis mortality.

Psychometric properties of the Icelandic NEO-FFI in a general population sample compared to a sample recruited for a study on the genetics of addiction.

Personality traits are major determinants of social behavior influencing various diseases including addiction. Twin and family studies suggest personality and addiction to be under genetic influence. Identification of DNA susceptibility variants relies on valid and reliable phenotyping approaches. We present results of psychometric testing of the Icelandic NEO-FFI in a population sample (N=657) and a sample recruited for a study on addiction genetics (N=3,804). The Icelandic NEO-FFI demonstrated internal consistency and temporal stability. Factor analyses supported the five-factor structure. Icelandic norms were compared to American norms and language translations selected for geographical and cultural proximity to Iceland. Multiple discriminant function analysis using NEO-FFI trait scores and gender as independent variables predicted membership in recruitment groups for 47.3% of addiction study cases (N=3,804), with accurate predictions made for 69.5% of individuals with treated addiction and 43.3% of their first-degree relatives. Correlations between NEO-FFI scores and the discriminant function suggested a combination of high neuroticism, low conscientiousness and low agreeableness predicted membership in the Treated group.

Multi-trait genome-wide association study of opioid addiction: OPRM1 and beyond.

Opioid addiction (OA) is moderately heritable, yet only rs1799971, the A118G variant in OPRM1, has been identified as a genome-wide significant association with OA and independently replicated. We applied genomic structural equation modeling to conduct a GWAS of the new Genetics of Opioid Addiction Consortium (GENOA) data together with published studies (Psychiatric Genomics Consortium, Million Veteran Program, and Partners Health), comprising 23,367 cases and effective sample size of 88,114 individuals of European ancestry. Genetic correlations among the various OA phenotypes were uniformly high (rg > 0.9). We observed the strongest evidence to date for OPRM1: lead SNP rs9478500 (p = 2.56 × 10-9). Gene-based analyses identified novel genome-wide significant associations with PPP6C and FURIN. Variants within these loci appear to be pleiotropic for addiction and related traits.

Cascade of care during the first 36 months of the treatment as prevention for hepatitis C (TraP HepC) programme in Iceland: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: WHO has set targets to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection as a global health threat by 2030 through a 65% reduction in HCV-related deaths and 80% reduction in HCV incidence. To achieve these goals, WHO set service coverage targets of 90% of the infected population being diagnosed and 80% of eligible patients being treated. In February, 2016, Iceland initiated a nationwide HCV elimination programme known as treatment as prevention for hepatitis C (TraP HepC), which aimed to maximise diagnosis and treatment access. This analysis reports on the HCV cascade of care in the first 3 years of the programme. METHODS: This population-based study was done between Feb 10, 2016, and Feb 10, 2019. Participants aged 18 years or older with permanent residence in Iceland and PCR-confirmed HCV were offered direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy. The programme used a multidisciplinary team approach in which people who inject drugs were prioritised. Nationwide awareness campaigns, improved access to testing, and harm reduction services were scaled up simultaneously. The number of infected people in the national HCV registry was used in combination with multiple other data sources, including screening of low-risk groups and high-risk groups, to estimate the total number of HCV infections. The number of people diagnosed, linked to care, initiated on treatment, and cured were recorded during the study. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02647879. FINDINGS: In February, 2016, at the onset of the programme, 760 (95% CI 690-851) individuals were estimated to have HCV infection, with 75 (95% CI 6-166) individuals undiagnosed. 682 individuals were confirmed to be HCV PCR positive. Over the next 3 years, 183 new infections (including 42 reinfections) were diagnosed, for a total of 865 infections in 823 individuals. It was estimated that more than 90% of all domestic HCV infections had been diagnosed as early as January, 2017. During the 3 years, 824 (95·3%) of diagnosed infections were linked to care, and treatment was initiated for 795 (96·5%) of infections linked to care. Cure was achieved for 717 (90·2%) of 795 infections. INTERPRETATION: By using a multidisciplinary public health approach, involving tight integration with addiction treatment services, the core service coverage targets for 2030 set by WHO have been reached. These achievements position Iceland to be among the first nations to subsequently achieve the WHO goal of eliminating HCV as a public health threat. FUNDING: The Icelandic Government and Gilead Sciences.

Genome-wide association study implicates CHRNA2 in cannabis use disorder.

Cannabis is the most frequently used illicit psychoactive substance worldwide; around one in ten users become dependent. The risk for cannabis use disorder (CUD) has a strong genetic component, with twin heritability estimates ranging from 51 to 70%. Here we performed a genome-wide association study of CUD in 2,387 cases and 48,985 controls, followed by replication in 5,501 cases and 301,041 controls. We report a genome-wide significant risk locus for CUD (P = 9.31 × 10-12) that replicates in an independent population (Preplication = 3.27 × 10-3, Pmeta-analysis = 9.09 × 10-12). The index variant (rs56372821) is a strong expression quantitative trait locus for cholinergic receptor nicotinic α2 subunit (CHRNA2); analyses of the genetically regulated gene expression identified a significant association of CHRNA2 expression with CUD in brain tissue. At the polygenic level, analyses revealed a significant decrease in the risk of CUD with increased load of variants associated with cognitive performance. The results provide biological insights and inform on the genetic architecture of CUD.

Extended-Release Injectable Naltrexone (XR-NTX) With Intensive Psychosocial Therapy for Amphetamine-Dependent Persons Seeking Treatment: A Placebo-Controlled Trial.

OBJECTIVE: Explore the efficacy of extended-release injectable naltrexone (XR-NTX) for preventing relapse to amphetamine use. METHOD: Clinical trial of 100 amphetamine-dependent, treatment-seeking patients who were randomized to 6 monthly 380 mg doses of XR-NTX or matching placebo before entering intensive outpatient after varying lengths of inpatient treatment in Reykjavik, Iceland. Weekly urine drug tests, retention, and standardized instruments assessed efficacy. RESULTS: Of 169 approached, 100 were randomized. Although amphetamine dependence was the main reason for seeking treatment, three-quarters or more of participants had 1 or more other substance dependencies. Of 51 randomized to XR-NTX, 20 received 4 or more injections; of 49 assigned to placebo, 26 received 4 or more injections. Of the planned 2400 weekly urine drug tests, 1247 were collected (52%); 4% of these were positive for amphetamine, 8% for benzodiazepine, 7% for marijuana, 1% for cocaine, and 1% for opioid. XR-NTX had no effect on amphetamine-positive tests, retention, or other outcomes. Those providing half or more of their tests attended more weeks of treatment than those providing less than half of their tests (m = 10.76 vs 3.31; t (92) = 5.91, P < 0.0001), and 92 participants provided at least 1 test. CONCLUSIONS: Adding XR-NTX to the usual combination of inpatient and intensive outpatient treatment did not reduce amphetamine use. The low prevalence of substance use among collected urine samples, and the association between collected samples and weeks in treatment, was consistent with other studies showing that staying in treatment is associated with better outcomes.

Truncating mutations in RBM12 are associated with psychosis.

Thus far, a handful of highly penetrant mutations conferring risk of psychosis have been discovered. Here we used whole-genome sequencing and long-range phasing to investigate an Icelandic kindred containing ten individuals with psychosis (schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder or psychotic bipolar disorder). We found that all affected individuals carry RBM12 (RNA-binding-motif protein 12) c.2377G>T (P = 2.2 × 10-4), a nonsense mutation that results in the production of a truncated protein lacking a predicted RNA-recognition motif. We replicated the association in a Finnish family in which a second RBM12 truncating mutation (c.2532delT) segregates with psychosis (P = 0.020). c.2377G>T is not fully penetrant for psychosis; however, we found that carriers unaffected by psychosis resemble patients with schizophrenia in their non-psychotic psychiatric disorder and neuropsychological test profile (P = 0.0043) as well as in their life outcomes (including an increased chance of receiving disability benefits, P = 0.011). As RBM12 has not previously been linked to psychosis, this work provides new insight into psychiatric disease.

Addictions and their familiality in Iceland.

Here, we provide an overview of previous family studies of addiction and present a new family study based on clinical data for more than 19,000 individuals who have been treated for addiction in Iceland over the last three decades. Coupled with the extensive Icelandic genealogy information, this population-based sample provides a unique opportunity for family studies. The relative risk (RR) was determined for up to fifth-degree relatives of probands diagnosed with alcohol, cannabis, sedative, and amphetamine dependence. We observe highly significant RR values for all substances ranging from 2.27 for alcohol to 7.3 for amphetamine, for first-degree relatives, and RRs significantly above 1 for distant relations, where the effect of shared environmental factors is minimized. The magnitude of risk in psychostimulant dependence is particularly striking. These findings emphasize the role of genetics in the etiology of addiction and highlight the importance of substance-specific effects.