Androgen deprivation therapy in men with prostate cancer is not associated with COVID-2019 infection.

BACKGROUND: Androgens may play a role in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and host responses as the virus is dependent on the androgen-regulated protein transmembrane serine protease 2 for cell entry. Studies have indicated that prostate cancer patients receiving androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) are at reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and serious complications compared with patients without ADT, but data are inconsistent. METHODS: A total of 655 prostate cancer patients who were under surveillance at two urology departments in Sweden on April 1, 2020 were included in the study as well as 240 patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). At follow-up early in 2021, the participants completed a questionnaire containing information about symptoms compatible with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Blood samples were also collected for the assessment of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies (SARS-CoV-2 Total; Siemens). We used multivariable logistic regression models to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between ADT and the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity was 13.4% among patients receiving ADT and 10.4% among patients without ADT. After adjusting for potential confounders, we observed no differences in symptoms or risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection between patients with and without ADT (OR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.52-1.85). Higher body mass index, Type 1 diabetes, and prostate cancer severity, defined by high Gleason score (8-10; OR: 2.06; 95% CI: 1.04-4.09) or elevated levels of prostate-specific antigen (>20 µg/l; OR: 2.15; 95% CI: 1.13-4.07) were associated with increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Overall, the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection was not higher among men with prostate cancer than among men with BPH. CONCLUSIONS: Our results do not support the hypothesis that ADT use in prostate cancer patients reduces the risk or symptom severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection or that prostate cancer patients are at increased risk of COVID-19 compared with men without prostate cancer.

Clinical outcomes and sick leave in relation to UDCA treatment in Swedish patients with primary biliary cholangitis.

OBJECTIVES: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is an autoimmune liver disease that may progress into liver cirrhosis. Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) is known to prevent or delay the disease progression, but little is known about work incapacity in PBC patients. We aimed to compare clinical outcomes (transplantation-free survival; cirrhosis development) and sick leave in patients with PBC with and without UDCA therapy. METHODS: The medical records of 526 patients with PBC diagnosed from 2004 to 2016 were reviewed retrospectively. Sick leave data retrieved from the Swedish Social Insurance Agency were analysed for a sub-cohort of patients and matched controls. Cox regression was used for analysis of clinical outcomes. Logistic and conditional logistic regressions were used for sick leave analysis. RESULTS: A total of 10.6% of patients died and 3.4% received liver transplantation over a median follow-up time of 5.7 years. UDCA-untreated patients (HR 3.62 (95%CI 2.02-6.49)) and UDCA non-responders (HR 3.78 (95% CI 1.87-7.66)) had higher mortality or transplantation rates than UDCA responders. Patients with PBC had higher odds of sick leave (OR 2.50; 95% CI 1.69-3.70) than matched controls. Untreated patients were more likely to be on sick leave (OR 3.22; 95% CI 1.12-9.25) two years after diagnosis than UDCA responders. CONCLUSION: Both untreated patients and UDCA non-responders had lower liver transplantation-free survival rates than UDCA responders. Patients with PBC were more likely to be on sick leave compared to matched controls from the general population.

Mortality in patients with Crohn's disease in Örebro, Sweden 1963-2010.

BACKGROUND: Some studies have suggested a reduced life expectancy in patients with Crohn's disease (CD) compared with the general population. The evidence, however, is inconsistent. AIMS: Prompted by such studies, we studied survival of CD patients in Örebro county, Sweden. METHODS: From the medical records, we identified all patients diagnosed with CD during 1963-2010 with follow-up to the end of 2011. We estimated: overall survival, net and crude probabilities of dying from CD, relative survival ratio (RSR), and excess mortality rate ratios (EMRR) at 10-year follow-up. RESULTS: The study included 492 patients (226 males, 266 females). Median age at diagnosis was 32 years (3-87). Net and crude probabilities of dying from CD increased with increasing age and were higher for women. Net survival of patients aged ≥60 at diagnosis was worse for patients diagnosed during 1963-1985 (54%) than for patients diagnosed during 1986-1999 (88%) or 2000-2010 (93%). Overall, CD patients' survival was comparable to that in the general population [RSR = 0.98; 95% CI: (0.95-1.00)]. However, significantly lower than expected survival was suggested for female patients aged ≥60 diagnosed during the 1963-1985 [RSR = 0.47 (0.07-0.95)]. The adjusted model suggested that, compared with diagnostic period 1963-1985, disease-related excess mortality declined during 2000-2010 [EMRR = 0.36 (0.07-1.96)]; and age ≥60 at diagnosis [EMRR = 7.99 (1.64-39.00), reference: age 40-59], female sex [EMRR = 4.16 (0.62-27.85)], colonic localization [EMRR = 4.20 (0.81-21.88), reference: ileal localization], and stricturing/penetrating disease [EMRR = 2.56 (0.52-12.58), reference: inflammatory disease behaviour] were associated with poorer survival. CONCLUSION: CD-related excess mortality may vary with diagnostic period, age, sex and disease phenotype.Key summaryThere is inconsistent evidence on life expectancy of patients with Crohn's diseaseCrohn's disease-specific survival improved over time.Earlier diagnosis period, older age at diagnosis, female sex, colonic disease and complicated disease behaviour seems to be associated with excess Crohn's disease-related mortality.

Beta-blocker use and urothelial bladder cancer survival: a Swedish register-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Recent observational studies linked ß-adrenergic receptor blocker use with improved survival in patients with several cancer types, but there is no information on the potential effects of ß-blockers in patients with bladder cancer. Literature from pre-clinical studies is also limited, but urothelial cancer can exhibit significant overexpression of ß-adrenergic receptors relative to normal urothelial tissue, suggesting that urothelial cancer may benefit from ß-blockade therapy. We thus aimed to explore the possible association between ß-blocker use and bladder cancer-specific mortality (BCSM) among patients with urothelial bladder cancer. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Patients diagnosed during 2006-2014 and identified from the Swedish Cancer Register (n = 16,669) were followed until 31 December 2015. Cox regression was used to evaluate the association of ß-blockers dispensed within 90 days prior to cancer diagnosis with BCSM (primary outcome) and all-cause mortality, while controlling for socio-demographic factors, tumor characteristics, comorbidity, other medications and surgical procedures. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were reported. RESULTS: Overall, ß-blocker use was associated with lower BCSM [HR 0.88 (95%CI 0.81-0.96)]. Especially use of nonselective ß-blockers showed a clear inverse association in comparison with both nonuse [0.66 (0.50-0.86)] and use of other antihypertensive medications [0.72 (0.54-0.95)]. The inverse association was most pronounced among patients with locally advanced/metastatic disease: [0.35 (0.18-0.68)]. A lower-magnitude inverse association was observed for selective ß-blocker use [0.91 (0.83-0.99)]. Largely similar inverse associations were observed for hydrophilic [0.82 (0.70-0.95)] and lipophilic [0.91 (0.83-1.00)] ß-blocker use. CONCLUSION: ß-blocker use, particularly of the nonselective type, was associated with lower BCSM, especially in patients with locally advanced/metastatic urothelial bladder cancer.

Mortality in first- and second-generation immigrants to Sweden diagnosed with type 2 diabetes: a 10 year nationwide cohort study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Non-Western immigrants to Europe are at high risk for type 2 diabetes. In this nationwide study including incident cases of type 2 diabetes, the aim was to compare all-cause mortality (ACM) and cause-specific mortality (CSM) rates in first- and second-generation immigrants with native Swedes. METHODS: People living in Sweden diagnosed with new-onset pharmacologically treated type 2 diabetes between 2006 and 2012 were identified through the Swedish Prescribed Drug Register. They were followed until 31 December 2016 for ACM and until 31 December 2012 for CSM. Analyses were adjusted for age at diagnosis, sex, socioeconomic status, education, treatment and region. Associations were assessed using Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: In total, 138,085 individuals were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes between 2006 and 2012 and fulfilled inclusion criteria. Of these, 102,163 (74.0%) were native Swedes, 28,819 (20.9%) were first-generation immigrants and 7103 (5.1%) were second-generation immigrants with either one or both parents born outside Sweden. First-generation immigrants had lower ACM rate (HR 0.80 [95% CI 0.76, 0.84]) compared with native Swedes. The mortality rates were particularly low in people born in non-Western regions (0.46 [0.42, 0.50]; the Middle East, 0.41 [0.36, 0.47]; Asia, 0.53 [0.43, 0.66]; Africa, 0.47 [0.38, 0.59]; and Latin America, 0.53 [0.42, 0.68]). ACM rates decreased with older age at migration and shorter stay in Sweden. Compared with native Swedes, first-generation immigrants with ≤ 24 years in Sweden (0.55 [0.51, 0.60]) displayed lower ACM rates than those spending >24 years in Sweden (0.92 [0.87, 0.97]). Second-generation immigrants did not have better survival rates than native Swedes but rather displayed higher ACM rates for people with both parents born abroad (1.28 [1.05, 1.56]). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In people with type 2 diabetes, the lower mortality rate in first-generation non-Western immigrants compared with native Swedes was reduced over time and was equalised in second-generation immigrants. These findings suggest that acculturation to Western culture may impact ACM and CSM in immigrants with type 2 diabetes but further investigation is needed. Graphical abstract.

Validity of Routinely Collected Swedish Data in the International Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) Database.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to assess patient coverage, validity and data quality in the Swedish part of the International Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) Interactive Audit System (EIAS). METHOD: All Swedish ERAS centers that recorded colorectal surgery data in EIAS between January 1, 2017, and December 31, 2017, were included (N = 12). Information registered in EIAS was compared with data from electronic medical records at each hospital to assess the overall coverage of EIAS. Twenty random-selected patients from each of the contributing centers were assessed for accuracy for a set of clinically relevant variables. All patients admitted to the contributing centers were included for the assessment of rate of missing on a selection of key clinical variables. RESULTS: Eight hospitals provided complete information for the evaluation, while four hospitals only allowed assessment of coverage and missing data. The eight hospitals had an overall coverage of 98.8% in EIAS (n = 1301) and the four 86.7% (n = 811). The average agreement for the assessed postoperative outcome variables was 96.5%. The accuracy was excellent for 'length of hospital stay,' 'reoperation,' and 'any complications,' but lower for other types of complications. Only a few variables had more than 5% missing data, and missingness was associated with hospital type and size. CONCLUSION: This validation of the Swedish part of the international ERAS database suggests high patient coverage in EIAS and high agreement and limited missingness in clinically relevant variables. This validation approach or a modified version can be used for continued validation of the International ERAS database.

Beta-adrenergic receptor blockers and liver cancer mortality in a national cohort of hepatocellular carcinoma patients.

Background: ß-adrenergic signaling has been implicated in the pathology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but the evidence from clinical studies is limited. In this national population-based cohort study, we investigated the possible association of ß-adrenergic receptor blockers and cancer-specific mortality among patients with primary HCC diagnosed in Sweden between 2006 and 2014.Methods: Patients were identified from the Swedish Cancer Register (n = 2104) and followed until 31 December 2015. We used Cox regression to evaluate the association of ß-blockers dispensed within 90 days prior to cancer diagnosis, ascertained from the national Prescribed Drug Register, with liver cancer mortality identified from the Cause of Death Register, while controlling for socio-demographic factors, tumor characteristics, comorbidity, other medications and treatment procedures.Results: Over a median follow-up of 9.9 months, 1601 patients died (of whom 1309 from liver cancer). Compared with non-use, ß-blocker use at cancer diagnosis [n = 714 (predominantly prevalent use, 93%)] was associated with lower liver cancer mortality [0.82 (0.72-0.94); p = .005]. Statistically significant associations were observed for non-selective [0.71 (0.55-0.91); p = .006], ß1-receptor selective [0.86 [0.75-1.00); p = .049] and lipophilic [0.78 (0.67-0.90); p = .001] ß-blockers. No association was observed for hydrophilic ß-blockers [1.01 (0.80-1.28); p = .906] or other antihypertensive medications. Further analysis suggested that the observed lower liver cancer mortality rate was limited to patients with localized disease at diagnosis [0.82 (0.67-1.01); p = .062].Conclusion: ß-blocker use was associated with lower liver cancer mortality rate in this national cohort of patients with HCC. A higher-magnitude inverse association was observed in relation to non-selective ß-blocker use.

International validation of Enhanced Recovery After Surgery Society guidelines on enhanced recovery for gynecologic surgery.

BACKGROUND: Enhanced Recovery After Surgery Society publishes guidelines on perioperative care, but these guidelines should be validated prospectively. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between compliance with Enhanced Recovery After Surgery Gynecologic/Oncology guideline elements and postoperative outcomes in an international cohort. STUDY DESIGN: The study comprised 2101 patients undergoing elective gynecologic/oncology surgery between January 2011 and November 2017 in 10 hospitals across Canada, the United States, and Europe. Patient demographics, surgical/anesthesia details, and Enhanced Recovery After Surgery protocol compliance elements (pre-, intra-, and postoperative phases) were entered into the Enhanced Recovery After Surgery Interactive Audit System. Surgical complexity was stratified according to the Aletti scoring system (low vs medium/high). The following covariates were accounted for in the analysis: age, body mass index, smoking status, presence of diabetes, American Society of Anesthesiologists class, International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage, preoperative chemotherapy, radiotherapy, operating time, surgical approach (open vs minimally invasive), intraoperative blood loss, hospital, and Enhanced Recovery After Surgery implementation status. The primary end points were primary hospital length of stay and complications. Negative binomial regression was used to model length of stay, and logistic regression to model complications, as a function of compliance score and covariates. RESULTS: Patient demographics included a median age 56 years, 35.5% obese, 15% smokers, and 26.7% American Society of Anesthesiologists Class III-IV. Final diagnosis was malignant in 49% of patients. Laparotomy was used in 75.9% of cases, and the remainder minimally invasive surgery. The majority of cases (86%) were of low complexity (Aletti score ≤3). In patients with ovarian cancer, 69.5% had a medium/high complexity surgery (Aletti score 4-11). Median length of stay was 2 days in the low- and 5 days in the medium/high-complexity group. Every unit increase in Enhanced Recovery After Surgery guideline score was associated with 8% (IRR, 0.92; 95% confidence interval, 0.90-0.95; P<.001) decrease in days in hospital among low-complexity, and 12% (IRR, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-0.93; P<.001) decrease among patients with medium/high-complexity scores. For every unit increase in Enhanced Recovery After Surgery guideline score, the odds of total complications were estimated to be 12% lower (P<.05) among low-complexity patients. CONCLUSION: Audit of surgical practices demonstrates that improved compliance with Enhanced Recovery After Surgery Gynecologic/Oncology guidelines is associated with an improvement in clinical outcomes, including length of stay, highlighting the importance of Enhanced Recovery After Surgery implementation.

Acne in late adolescence and risk of prostate cancer.

Accumulating evidence suggest that Propionibacterium acnes may play a role in prostate carcinogenesis, but data are so far limited and inconclusive. The aim of this population-based cohort study was therefore to test whether presence of acne vulgaris during late adolescence is associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer later in life. We identified a large cohort of young men born in Sweden between 1952 and 1956, who underwent mandatory assessment for military conscription around the age of 18 (n = 243,187). Test information along with health data including medical diagnoses at time of conscription was available through the Swedish Military Conscription Register and the National Patient Register. The cohort was followed through linkages to the Swedish Cancer Register to identify the occurrence of prostate cancer until December 31, 2009. We used Cox regression to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for the association between acne in adolescence and prostate cancer risk. A total of 1,633 men were diagnosed with prostate cancer during a median follow-up of 36.7 years. A diagnosis of acne was associated with a statistically significant increased risk for prostate cancer (adjusted HR: 1.43 95%; CI: 1.06-1.92), particularly for advanced stage disease (HR: 2.37 95%; CI 1.19-4.73). A diagnosis of acne classified as severe conferred a sixfold increased risk of prostate cancer (HR: 5.70 95% CI 1.42-22.85). Data from this large prospective population-based cohort add new evidence supporting a role of P. acnes infection in prostate cancer.

Lithium-Associated Hypercalcemia: Pathophysiology, Prevalence, Management.

BACKGROUND: Lithium-associated hypercalcemia (LAH) is an ill-defined endocrinopathy. The aim of the present study was to determine the prevalence of hypercalcemia in a cohort of bipolar patients (BP) with and without concomitant lithium treatment and to study surgical outcomes for lithium-associated hyperparathyroidism. METHODS: Retrospective data, including laboratory results, surgical outcomes and medications, were collected from 313 BP treated with lithium from two psychiatric outpatient units in central Sweden. In addition, data were collected from 148 BP without lithium and a randomly selected control population of 102 individuals. Logistic regression was used to compare odds of hypercalcemia in these respective populations. RESULTS: The prevalence of lithium-associated hypercalcemia was 26%. Mild hypercalcemia was detected in 87 out of 563 study participants. The odds of hypercalcemia were significantly higher in BP with lithium treatment compared with BP unexposed to lithium (adjusted OR 13.45; 95% CI 3.09, 58.55; p = 0.001). No significant difference was detected between BP without lithium and control population (adjusted OR 2.40; 95% CI 0.38, 15.41; p = 0.355). Seven BP with lithium underwent surgery where an average of two parathyroid glands was removed. Parathyroid hyperplasia was present in four patients (57%) at the initial operation. One patient had persistent disease after the initial operation, and six patients had recurrent disease at follow-up time which was on average 10 years. CONCLUSION: The high prevalence of LAH justifies the regular monitoring of calcium homeostasis, particularly in high-risk groups. If surgery is necessary, bilateral neck exploration should be considered in patients on chronic lithium treatment. Prospective studies are needed.

Measured glomerular filtration rate does not improve prediction of mortality by cystatin C and creatinine.

BACKGROUND: Cystatin C may add explanatory power for associations with mortality in combination with other filtration markers, possibly indicating pathways other than glomerular filtration rate (GFR). However, this has not been firmly established since interpretation of associations independent of measured GFR (mGFR) is limited by potential multicollinearity between markers of GFR. The primary aim of this study was to assess associations between cystatin C and mortality, independent of mGFR. A secondary aim was to evaluate the utility of combining cystatin C and creatinine to predict mortality risk. METHODS: Cox regression was used to assess the associations of cystatin C and creatinine with mortality in 1157 individuals referred for assessment of plasma clearance of iohexol. RESULTS: Since cystatin C and creatinine are inversely related to mGFR, cystatin C - 1 and creatinine - 1 were used. After adjustment for mGFR, lower cystatin C - 1 (higher cystatin C concentration) and higher creatinine - 1 (lower creatinine concentration) were independently associated with increased mortality. When nested models were compared, avoiding the potential influence of multicollinearity, the independence of the associations was supported. Among models combining the markers of GFR, adjusted for demographic factors and comorbidity, cystatin C - 1 and creatinine - 1 combined explained the largest proportion of variance in associations with mortality risk ( R 2 = 0.61). Addition of mGFR did not improve the model. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that both creatinine and cystatin C have independent associations with mortality not explained entirely by mGFR and that mGFR does not offer a more precise mortality risk assessment than these endogenous filtration markers combined.

Adolescent body mass index and erythrocyte sedimentation rate in relation to colorectal cancer risk.

OBJECTIVE: Adult obesity and inflammation have been associated with risk of colorectal cancer (CRC); however, less is known about how adolescent body mass index (BMI) and inflammation, as measured by erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), relate to CRC risk. We sought to evaluate these associations in a cohort of 239 658 Swedish men who underwent compulsory military enlistment examinations in late adolescence (ages 16-20 years). DESIGN: At the time of the conscription assessment (1969-1976), height and weight were measured and ESR was assayed. By linkage to the national cancer registry, these conscripts were followed for CRC through 1 January 2010. Over an average of 35 years of follow-up, 885 cases of CRC occurred, including 501 colon cancers and 384 rectal cancers. Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted HRs and corresponding 95% CIs. RESULTS: Compared with normal weight (BMI 18.5 to <25 kg/m(2)) in late adolescence, upper overweight (BMI 27.5 to <30 kg/m(2)) was associated with a 2.08-fold higher risk of CRC (95% CI 1.40 to 3.07) and obesity (BMI 30+ kg/m(2)) was associated with a 2.38-fold higher risk of CRC (95% CI 1.51 to 3.76) (p-trend: <0.001). Male adolescents with ESR (15+ mm/h) had a 63% higher risk of CRC (HR 1.63; 95% CI 1.08 to 2.45) than those with low ESR (<10 mm/h) (p-trend: 0.006). Associations did not significantly differ by anatomic site. CONCLUSIONS: Late-adolescent BMI and inflammation, as measured by ESR, may be independently associated with future CRC risk. Further research is needed to better understand how early-life exposures relate to CRC.

Determinants in Adolescence of Stroke-Related Hospital Stay Duration in Men: A National Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Physical and psychological characteristics in adolescence are associated with subsequent stroke risk. Our aim is to investigate their relevance to length of hospital stay and risk of second stroke. METHODS: Swedish men born between 1952 and 1956 (n=237 879) were followed from 1987 to 2010 using information from population-based national registers. Stress resilience, body mass index, cognitive function, physical fitness, and blood pressure were measured at compulsory military conscription examinations in late adolescence. Joint Cox proportional hazards models estimated the associations of these characteristics with long compared with short duration of stroke-related hospital stay and with second stroke compared with first. RESULTS: Some 3000 men were diagnosed with nonfatal stroke between ages 31 and 58 years. Low stress resilience, underweight, and higher systolic blood pressure (per 1-mm Hg increase) during adolescence were associated with longer hospital stay (compared with shorter) in ischemic stroke, with adjusted relative hazard ratios (and 95% confidence intervals) of 1.46 (1.08-1.89), 1.41 (1.04-1.91), and 1.01 (1.00-1.02), respectively. Elevated systolic and diastolic blood pressures during adolescence were associated with longer hospital stay in men with intracerebral hemorrhage: 1.01 (1.00-1.03) and 1.02 (1.00-1.04), respectively. Among both stroke types, obesity in adolescence conferred an increased risk of second stroke: 2.06 (1.21-3.45). CONCLUSIONS: Some characteristics relevant to length of stroke-related hospital stay and risk of second stroke are already present in adolescence. Early lifestyle influences are of importance not only to stroke risk by middle age but also to recurrence and use of healthcare resources among stroke survivors.

The changing face of Crohn's disease: a population-based study of the natural history of Crohn's disease in Örebro, Sweden 1963-2005.

OBJECTIVE: Changes in medical therapy and surgery might have influenced the natural history of Crohn's disease (CD). Our aim was to explore the short-term outcome of CD and to specifically assess trends in disease phenotype, medications and surgery in the first five years from diagnosis. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A population-based cohort comprising 472 CD patients diagnosed within the primary catchment area of Örebro University Hospital 1963-2005 were identified retrospectively and described. Data on medication, surgery, progression in disease location and behavior, were extracted from the medical records. Patients were divided into three cohorts based on year of diagnosis. RESULTS: The proportion of patients with complicated disease behavior five years after diagnosis decreased from 54.4% (95%CI, 43.9-65.6) to 33.3% (27.4-40.0) in patients diagnosed 1963-1975 and 1991-2005, respectively (p = 0.002), whereas the proportion of patients progressing to complicated disease behavior was stable among those with non-stricturing, non-penetrating disease at diagnosis (p = 0.435). The proportion of patients undergoing surgery decreased from 65.8% (55.4-76.0) to 34.6% (28.6-41.5) in patients diagnosed 1963-1975 and 1991-2005, respectively (p < 0.001). The reduction in surgery preceded an increased use of immunomodulators and was explained by a decrease in surgery within three months from diagnosis (p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: We observed a striking decrease in complicated disease behavior and surgery five years after CD diagnosis, the latter largely due to a decrease in early surgery. Our findings suggest that the introduction of new treatments alone does not explain the reduction in surgery rates, the increasing proportion of patients with inflammatory disease at diagnosis also play an important role.

Prognostic models for stable coronary artery disease based on electronic health record cohort of 102 023 patients.

AIMS: The population with stable coronary artery disease (SCAD) is growing but validated models to guide their clinical management are lacking. We developed and validated prognostic models for all-cause mortality and non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) or coronary death in SCAD. METHODS AND RESULTS: Models were developed in a linked electronic health records cohort of 102 023 SCAD patients from the CALIBER programme, with mean follow-up of 4.4 (SD 2.8) years during which 20 817 deaths and 8856 coronary outcomes were observed. The Kaplan-Meier 5-year risk was 20.6% (95% CI, 20.3, 20.9) for mortality and 9.7% (95% CI, 9.4, 9.9) for non-fatal MI or coronary death. The predictors in the models were age, sex, CAD diagnosis, deprivation, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, lipids, heart failure, peripheral arterial disease, atrial fibrillation, stroke, chronic kidney disease, chronic pulmonary disease, liver disease, cancer, depression, anxiety, heart rate, creatinine, white cell count, and haemoglobin. The models had good calibration and discrimination in internal (external) validation with C-index 0.811 (0.735) for all-cause mortality and 0.778 (0.718) for non-fatal MI or coronary death. Using these models to identify patients at high risk (defined by guidelines as 3% annual mortality) and support a management decision associated with hazard ratio 0.8 could save an additional 13-16 life years or 15-18 coronary event-free years per 1000 patients screened, compared with models with just age, sex, and deprivation. CONCLUSION: These validated prognostic models could be used in clinical practice to support risk stratification as recommended in clinical guidelines.

Predictors in adolescence of ESRD in middle-aged men.

BACKGROUND: Identification of predictors of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in adolescence could provide intervention targets and improve understanding of the cause. STUDY DESIGN: Register-based nested case-control study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: A cohort of all Swedish male residents born from 1952 through 1956 who attended mandatory military conscription examinations in late adolescence was used to identify 534 cases and 5,127 controls matched by birth year, county, and vital status. PREDICTOR: Erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), proteinuria, blood pressure, and body mass index (BMI) in late adolescence. OUTCOMES: ESRD (defined here as dialysis therapy, kidney transplantation, surgical procedures creating long-term access for dialysis therapy, or chronic kidney disease stage 5) from 1985 through 2009. MEASUREMENTS: Physical working capacity and cognitive function score in late adolescence. Head of household's occupation and household crowding measured as person-per-room ratio from the 1960 census when participants were children. RESULTS: Proteinuria is associated notably with future ESRD, with an adjusted OR of 7.72 (95% CI, 3.94-15.14; P<0.001) for trace or positive dipstick findings. ESR has a dose-dependent association with ESRD with an adjusted OR of 2.07 (95%CI, 1.14-3.75; P=0.02) for ESR >15mm/h. Hypertension is associated strongly with future ESRD with an OR of 3.97 (95%CI, 2.08-7.59; P<0.001) for grade 2 hypertension and higher. Elevated BMI is associated statistically significantly with increased ESRD risk with an OR of 3.53 (95%CI, 2.04-6.11; P<0.001) for BMI ≥30 compared with 18.5-<25kg/m(2). LIMITATIONS: The study was limited to men, with no initial estimation of glomerular filtration rate, and information on smoking was unavailable. CONCLUSIONS: ESR, proteinuria, BMI, and blood pressure in late adolescence are independent predictors of ESRD in middle-aged men. This highlights the long natural history and importance of adopting a life-course approach when considering the cause of chronic kidney disease.

Stress resilience in male adolescents and subsequent stroke risk: cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Exposure to psychosocial stress has been identified as a possible stroke risk, but the role of stress resilience which may be relevant to chronic exposure is uncertain. We investigated the association of stress resilience in adolescence with subsequent stroke risk. METHODS: Register-based cohort study. Some 237 879 males born between 1952 and 1956 were followed from 1987 to 2010 using information from Swedish registers. Cox regression estimated the association of stress resilience with stroke, after adjustment for established stroke risk factors. RESULTS: Some 3411 diagnoses of first stroke were identified. Lowest stress resilience (21.8%) compared with the highest (23.7%) was associated with increased stroke risk, producing unadjusted HR (with 95% CIs) of 1.54 (1.40 to 1.70). The association attenuated slightly to 1.48 (1.34 to 1.63) after adjustment for markers of socioeconomic circumstances in childhood; and after further adjustment for markers of development and disease in adolescence (blood pressure, cognitive function and pre-existing cardiovascular disease) to 1.30 (1.18 to 1.45). The greatest reduction followed further adjustment for markers of physical fitness (BMI and physical working capacity) in adolescence to 1.16 (1.04 to 1.29). The results were consistent when stroke was subdivided into fatal, ischaemic and haemorrhagic, with higher magnitude associations for fatal rather than non-fatal, and for haemorrhagic rather than ischaemic stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Stress susceptibility and, therefore, psychosocial stress may be implicated in the aetiology of stroke. This association may be explained, in part, by poorer physical fitness. Effective prevention might focus on behaviour/lifestyle and psychosocial stress.

Antithrombotic Treatment and Clinical Outcomes After Intracerebral Hemorrhage: A Retrospective Cohort Study from the Swedish Stroke Register.

BACKGROUND: A rapid shift has occurred from vitamin K antagonists toward direct oral anticoagulants, which have a lower risk of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). However, effects on clinical outcomes after ICH are understudied. We aimed to describe the prevalence of antithrombotic drugs and to study the prognosis among prestroke functionally independent Swedish patients with ICH. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified all patients diagnosed with nontraumatic ICH in 2017 to 2021 from the Swedish Stroke Register (n=13 155) and assessed death and functional outcome at 3 months after ICH in prestroke functionally independent patients (n=10 014). Functional outcome was estimated among 3-month survivors on the basis of self-reported activities of daily living scores. Risks of outcomes were estimated using Poisson regression. In 13 155 patients, 14.5% used direct oral anticoagulant, 10.1% vitamin K antagonists, and 21.6% antiplatelets at ICH onset. Among 10 014 pre-stroke activities of daily living-independent patients, oral anticoagulants and antiplatelets were associated with increased mortality risk (adjusted risk ratio, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.13-1.43]; P<0.001; and adjusted risk ratio, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.13-1.34]; P<0.001 respectively). Mortality risk did not statistically differ between antiplatelets and oral anticoagulants nor between direct oral anticoagulant and vitamin K antagonists. Among 5126 patients with nonmissing functional outcome (69.1% of survivors), antiplatelets (adjusted risk ratio, 1.06 [95% CI, 0.99-1.13]; P=0.100) and oral anticoagulants (adjusted risk ratio, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.92-1.12]; P=0.768) were not statistically significantly associated with functional dependence. CONCLUSIONS: There was no statistically significant difference in mortality risk between direct oral anticoagulant and vitamin K antagonists in prestroke functionally independent patients (unadjusted for oral anticoagulant class indication). Furthermore, mortality risk in antiplatelet and oral anticoagulant users might differ less than previously suggested.