Educational and occupational aspirations of adolescent and young adult cancer survivors: a qualitative analysis.

PURPOSE: Adolescent and young adult cancer survivors (AYACS) are patients diagnosed with cancer between 15 and 39 years of age. AYACS are often derailed from planned educational and occupational endeavors due to disruption from cancer treatment and its consequences. The study objective was to examine how a personal cancer diagnosis impacted AYACS' experiences related to these endeavors. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted as part of a larger study assessing psychosocial challenges among a younger AYACS subset aged 15-25 years old at the time of cancer diagnosis. Interviews were coded based on responses and were used to develop themes related to educational and occupational endeavors. RESULTS: Data were collected from 35 participants. Five themes emerged: (1) Pauses in educational attainment had a detrimental effect on educational goals for some participants, but further solidified and sculpted educational plans for others; (2) Although participants experienced challenges accomplishing educational goals, supportive school environments helped surmount these challenges; (3) Participants reflected on rethinking career aspirations, though some desired to pursue the same occupation planned before cancer diagnosis; (4) Participants experienced challenges, including physical and cognitive limitations, upon returning to work; and (5) Participants valued autonomy and normalcy through work and appreciated supportive and flexible work environments. CONCLUSIONS: AYACS prioritize professional achievement, yet encounter challenges in achieving professional goals. Our findings create a foundation for developing and testing prospective interventions to promote continuance of school and work during cancer treatment when feasible, and proactive reintegration strategies for those who paused professional goals due to cancer treatment.

Research Note: A Novel Sullivan Method Projection Framework With Application to Long COVID.

Originally developed for estimating healthy life expectancy, the traditional Sullivan method continues to be a popular tool for obtaining point-in-time estimates of the population impacts of a wide range of health and social conditions. However, except in rare data-intensive cases, the method is subject to stringent stationarity assumptions, which often do not align with real-world conditions and restrict its resulting estimates and applications. In this research note, we present an expansion of the original method to apply within a population projection framework. The Sullivan method projection framework produces estimates that offer new insights about future trends in population health and social arrangements under various demographic and epidemiologic scenarios, such as the percentage of life years that population members can expect to spend with a condition of interest in a time interval under different assumptions. We demonstrate the utility of this framework using the case of long COVID, illustrating both its operation and potential to reveal insights about emergent population health challenges under various theoretically informed scenarios. The traditional Sullivan method provides a summary measure of the present, while its incorporation into a projection framework enables preparation for a variety of potential futures.

Changes in Family Structure and Increasing Care Gaps in the United States, 2015-2050.

Research on caregiving in the United States has not clearly identified the scope of the gap between care needed and care received and the changes implied by ongoing and anticipated shifts in family structure. This article examines the magnitude of contemporary gaps in care among older adults in the United States and how they are likely to evolve through 2050. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study (1998-2014) to estimate care gaps, operationalized as having difficulties with activities of daily living (ADLs) or instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) but not receiving care. We also estimate variation in care gaps by family structure. Then, we use data from demographic microsimulation to explore the implications of demographic and family changes for the evolution of care gaps. We establish that care gaps are common, with 13% and 5% of adults aged 50 or older reporting a care gap for ADLs and IADLs, respectively. Next, we find that adults with neither partners nor children have the highest care gap rates. Last, we project that the number of older adults with care gaps will increase by more than 30% between 2015 and 2050-twice the rate of population growth. These results provide a benchmark for understanding the scope of the potential problem and considering how care gaps can be filled.

Sibling Availability, Sibling Sorting, and Subjective Health Among Chinese Adults.

Despite rising numbers of only children in China, little is known about their family dynamics and well-being in adulthood-for example, how often they marry other only children and whether those in siblingless families have worse or better health than others. Theoretical expectations produce opposing predictions: siblings might provide social and emotional support and reduce parental caregiving pressures, but only children might receive more support from parents and grandparents. Using the 2010 China Family Panel Study, we examine marital sorting on Chinese adults' number of siblings and test whether sibling availability and sibling sorting are associated with subjective physical and mental health. Despite general perceptions that China has an exceedingly high prevalence of adults with no siblings that might produce very small families, results demonstrate a low prevalence of siblingless couples (i.e., both spouses are only children). Married adults with no siblings or siblings-in-law have better subjective physical health but similar levels of subjective mental health relative to their counterparts with siblings. The health advantages of siblingless marital unions are greater for rural and female adults. Declining sibling prevalence in China will shape future family demographic dynamics but appears less detrimental to population health than sometimes assumed.

Social network interventions to reduce race disparities in living kidney donation: Design and rationale of the friends and family of kidney transplant patients study (FFKTPS).

INTRODUCTION: Racial/ethnic disparities in living donor kidney transplantation (LDKT) are a persistent challenge. Although nearly all directed donations are from members of patients' social networks, little is known about which social network members take steps toward living kidney donation, which do not, and what mechanisms contribute to racial/ethnic LDKT disparities. METHODS: We describe the design and rationale of the Friends and Family of Kidney Transplant Patients Study, a factorial experimental fielding two interventions designed to promote LKD discussions. Participants are kidney transplant candidates at two centers who are interviewed and delivered an intervention by trained center research coordinators. The search intervention advises patients on which social network members are most likely to be LKD contraindication-free; the script intervention advises patients on how to initiate effective LKD discussions. Participants are randomized into four conditions: no intervention, search only, script only, or both search and script. Patients also complete a survey and optionally provide social network member contact information so they can be surveyed directly. This study will seek to enroll 200 transplant candidates. The primary outcome is LDKT receipt. Secondary outcomes include live donor screening and medical evaluations and outcomes. Tertiary outcomes include LDKT self-efficacy, concerns, knowledge, and willingness, measured before and after the interventions. CONCLUSION: This study will assess the effectiveness of two interventions to promote LKD and ameliorate Black-White disparities. It will also collect unprecedented information on transplant candidates' social network members, enabling future work to address network member structural barriers to LKD.

Demography's Changing Intellectual Landscape: A Bibliometric Analysis of the Leading Anglophone Journals, 1950-2020.

Much of what we know about the intellectual landscape of anglophone demography comes from two sources: subjective narratives authored by leaders in the field, whose reviews and observations are derived from their research experience and field-specific knowledge; and professional histories covering the field's foundational controversies, which tend to focus on individuals, institutions, and influence. Here we use bibliographic information from all articles published in the three leading journals of anglophone demography-Demography, Population Studies, and Population and Development Review-to survey the changing contours of anglophone demography's key research areas over the past 70 years. We characterize the field of demography by applying a two-pronged, data-grounded approach from the sociology of science. The first uses natural language processing that lets the substance of the field emerge from the contents of publication records and applies social network analyses to identify groups of papers that talk about the same thing. The second uses bibliometric tools to capture the "conversations" of demography with other disciplines. Our goals are to (1) identify the primary topics of demography since the discipline first gained prominence as an organized field; (2) assess changes in the field's intellectual cohesion and the topical areas that have grown or shrunk; and (3) examine how demographers place their work in relationship to other disciplines, the visibility and influence of demographic research in the broader scientific literature, and the cross-disciplinary translational reach of demographic research. Results provide a dynamic view of the field's scientific development in the second half of the twentieth century and the first two decades of the twenty-first century.

Tracking the reach of COVID-19 kin loss with a bereavement multiplier applied to the United States.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to a large increase in mortality in the United States and around the world, leaving many grieving the sudden loss of family members. We created an indicator-the COVID-19 bereavement multiplier-that estimates the average number of individuals who will experience the death of a close relative (defined as a grandparent, parent, sibling, spouse, or child) for each COVID-19 death. Using demographic microsimulation-based estimates of kinship networks in the United States, the clear age gradient in COVID-19 mortality seen across contexts, and several hypothetical infection prevalence scenarios, we estimate COVID-19 bereavement multipliers for White and Black individuals in the United States. Our analysis shows that for every COVID-19 death, approximately nine surviving Americans will lose a grandparent, parent, sibling, spouse, or child. These estimates imply, for example, that if 190,000 Americans die from COVID-19, as some models project, then ∼1.7 million will experience the death of a close relative. We demonstrate that our estimates of the bereavement multiplier are stable across epidemiological realities, including infection scenarios, total number of deaths, and the distribution of deaths, which means researchers can estimate the bereavement burden over the course of the epidemic in lockstep with rising death tolls. In addition, we provide estimates of bereavement multipliers by age group, types of kin loss, and race to illuminate prospective disparities. The bereavement multiplier is a useful indicator for tracking COVID-19's multiplicative impact as it reverberates across American families and can be tailored to other causes of death.

How differential privacy will affect our understanding of health disparities in the United States.

The application of a currently proposed differential privacy algorithm to the 2020 United States Census data and additional data products may affect the usefulness of these data, the accuracy of estimates and rates derived from them, and critical knowledge about social phenomena such as health disparities. We test the ramifications of applying differential privacy to released data by studying estimates of US mortality rates for the overall population and three major racial/ethnic groups. We ask how changes in the denominators of these vital rates due to the implementation of differential privacy can lead to biased estimates. We situate where these changes are most likely to matter by disaggregating biases by population size, degree of urbanization, and adjacency to a metropolitan area. Our results suggest that differential privacy will more strongly affect mortality rate estimates for non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics than estimates for non-Hispanic whites. We also find significant changes in estimated mortality rates for less populous areas, with more pronounced changes when stratified by race/ethnicity. We find larger changes in estimated mortality rates for areas with lower levels of urbanization or adjacency to metropolitan areas, with these changes being greater for non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics. These findings highlight the consequences of implementing differential privacy, as proposed, for research examining population composition, particularly mortality disparities across racial/ethnic groups and along the urban/rural continuum. Overall, they demonstrate the challenges in using the data products derived from the proposed disclosure avoidance methods, while highlighting critical instances where scientific understandings may be negatively impacted.

Lost support, lost skills: Children's cognitive outcomes following grandparental death.

OBJECTIVE: This study examines the implications of grandparental death for cognitive skills in middle childhood. METHOD: This study uses data from the Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N = 2479) to estimate ordinary least squares regression models of the associations between grandparental death and subsequent cognitive skills among children in middle childhood. RESULTS: Experiencing a grandparental death between ages 5 and 9 is associated with boys' lower reading, verbal, and math scores at age 9, with associations most notable for Black and Hispanic boys; grandparental death before age 5 has minimal influence on boys' cognitive skills at age 9. There is little indication that grandparental death adversely affects girls' cognitive skills. CONCLUSION: The numerous and persistent implications of grandparental death for boys' cognitive skills merit greater recognition of grandparental death as a source of family instability, stress, and ultimately inequality in child development.

Racial/ethnic and prior willingness disparities in potential living kidney donors' self-assessed responses to advancing American kidney health regulation.

BACKGROUND: Racial/ethnic disparities in living donor kidney transplantation (LDKT) are large, and rates of LDKT may be limited by indirect costs of living donation. A 2019 Executive Order- Advancing American Kidney Health (AAKH)- sought to remove indirect costs through an expanded reimbursement program. We examine how potential living kidney donors in the U.S. believe regulation stemming from the AAKH initiative will impact their living donor evaluation likelihood, how these beliefs vary by minority race/ethnicity and prior willingness to be evaluated, and how differences are explained by ability to benefit or knowledge and attitudes. METHODS: Data from a 2019 online survey (Families of Renal Patients Survey) were used. Respondents are U.S. adult (> 18 years) members of the Qualtrics Survey Panel who reported having relatives with weak or failing kidneys (N = 590). Respondents' likelihood to be evaluated for living kidney donation are measured by self-report. Prior willingness is measured by past donation-related actions and current attitudes. Ability to benefit is measured by self-reported labor force participation and financial strain. Transplant knowledge is measured by self-report and a knowledge test, and transplant-related attitudes are measured by self-report. Average marginal effects of minority race/ethnicity and prior willingness for response to each provision in fully-adjusted models were estimated. Formal tests of mediation were conducted using the Karlson, Holm, and Breen (KHB) mediation model. Stata/MP 14.2 was used to conduct all analyses. RESULTS: Majorities of all groups report favorable responses to the provisions stipulated in AAKH regulation. Responses to provisions are significantly associated with race/ethnicity and prior willingness, with racial/ethnic minorities and those not previously willing to be evaluated less likely to report favorable responses to these provisions. Prior willingness differences are partially explained by group differences in ability to benefit and transplant-related knowledge and attitudes, but racial/ethnic differences largely are not. CONCLUSIONS: Regulation stemming from the AAKH initiative is likely to effectively promote LDKT, but may also exacerbate racial/ethnic disparities. Therefore, the regulation may need to be supplemented by efforts to address non-financial obstacles to LDKT in racial/ethnic minority communities in order to ensure equitable increases in LDKT rates and living donor support.

Projections of white and black older adults without living kin in the United States, 2015 to 2060.

Close kin provide many important functions as adults age, affecting health, financial well-being, and happiness. Those without kin report higher rates of loneliness and experience elevated risks of chronic illness and nursing facility placement. Historical racial differences and recent shifts in core demographic rates suggest that white and black older adults in the United States may have unequal availability of close kin and that this gap in availability will widen in the coming decades. Whereas prior work explores the changing composition and size of the childless population or those without spouses, here we consider the kinless population of older adults with no living close family members and how this burden is changing for different race and sex groups. Using demographic microsimulation and the United States Census Bureau's recent national projections of core demographic rates by race, we examine two definitions of kinlessness: those without a partner or living children, and those without a partner, children, siblings, or parents. Our results suggest dramatic growth in the size of the kinless population as well as increasing racial disparities in percentages kinless. These conclusions are driven by declines in marriage and are robust to different assumptions about the future trajectory of divorce rates or growth in nonmarital partnerships. Our findings draw attention to the potential expansion of older adult loneliness, which is increasingly considered a threat to population health, and the unequal burden kinlessness may place on black Americans.

Family embeddedness and older adult mortality in the United States.

Do different operationalizations of family structure offer different understandings of the links between family structure and older adult mortality? Using the American Health and Retirement Study (N = 29,665), we examine mortality risks by three measures of family structure: whether respondents have different family statuses (e.g. married vs. unmarried), volume of family members available (e.g. having one vs. two living immediate family members), and family embeddedness (e.g. having neither spouse nor child vs. having spouse but no child). We focus on three kin types: partner/spouse, children, and siblings. We find that differences in empirical estimates across measures of family structure are not dramatic, but that family embeddedness can show some additional heterogeneity in mortality patterns over family status variables or the volume of ties. This paper tests different ways of operationalizing family structure to study mortality outcomes and advances our understanding of how family functions as a key social determinant of health.

Estimating Hidden Population Sizes with Venue-based Sampling: Extensions of the Generalized Network Scale-up Estimator.

BACKGROUND: Researchers use a variety of population size estimation methods to determine the sizes of key populations at elevated risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), an important step in quantifying epidemic impact, advocating for high-risk groups, and planning, implementing, and monitoring prevention, care, and treatment programs. Conventional procedures often use information about sample respondents' social network contacts to estimate the sizes of key populations of interest. A recent study proposes a generalized network scale-up method that combines two samples-a traditional sample of the general population and a link-tracing sample of the hidden population-and produces more accurate results with fewer assumptions than conventional approaches. METHODS: We extended the generalized network scale-up method from link-tracing samples to samples collected with venue-based sampling designs popular in sampling key populations at risk of HIV. Our method obviates the need for a traditional sample of the general population, as long as the size of the venue-attending population is approximately known. We tested the venue-based generalized network scale-up method in a comprehensive simulation evaluation framework. RESULTS: The venue-based generalized network scale-up method provided accurate and efficient estimates of key population sizes, even when few members of the key population were sampled, yielding average biases below ±6% except when false-positive reporting error is high. It relies on limited assumptions and, in our tests, was robust to numerous threats to inference. CONCLUSIONS: Key population size estimation is vital to the successful implementation of efforts to combat HIV/AIDS. Venue-based network scale-up approaches offer another tool that researchers and policymakers can apply to these problems.

A Cohort Perspective on the Demography of Grandparenthood: Past, Present, and Future Changes in Race and Sex Disparities in the United States.

How has the demography of grandparenthood changed over the last century? How have racial inequalities in grandparenthood changed, and how are they expected to change in the future? Massive improvements in mortality, increasing childlessness, and fertility postponement have profoundly altered the likelihood that people become grandparents as well as the timing and length of grandparenthood for those that do. The demography of grandparenthood is important to understand for those taking a multigenerational perspective of stratification and racial inequality because these processes define the onset and duration of intergenerational relationships in ways that constrain the forms and levels of intergenerational transfers that can occur within them. In this article, we discuss four measures of the demography of grandparenthood and use simulated data to estimate the broad contours of historical changes in the demography of grandparenthood in the United States for the 1880-1960 birth cohorts. Then we examine race and sex differences in grandparenthood in the past and present, which reveal declining inequality in the demography of grandparenthood and a projection of increasing group convergence in the coming decades.

"You Never Know What You're Getting": Opioid Users' Perceptions of Fentanyl in Southwest Pennsylvania.

BACKGROUND: Urban areas in the United States have experienced a dramatic surge in fentanyl overdose deaths since 2014, a trend affecting both larger and smaller metropolitan areas. Encompassing only 1.2 million residents, Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, nevertheless saw 412 fentanyl-involved deaths in 2016, a number surpassed only by New York City and Cook County (Chicago), Illinois. OBJECTIVES: This article seeks to describe opioid users' perceptions of fentanyl in Allegheny and three adjacent counties; it further considers how the drug's emergence shapes some users' market behaviors and consumption practices. METHODS: This article reports on qualitative interview data (N = 30) collected as part of a larger, multi-phase, mixed methods study (N = 125) among individuals reporting past-year prescription opioid misuse or heroin use in four southwest Pennsylvania Counties. RESULTS: Most interviewees reported past-year suspected exposure to fentanyl, and many reported suffering or seeing suspected fentanyl overdoses. Where roughly one-third reported strategies for avoiding fentanyl, a small group of interviewees identified advantages to fentanyl, while still acknowledging its associated risks. Conclusions/Importance: Given users' diverse opinions around fentanyl, the distribution of fentanyl test strips may represent an effective response to the current crisis.

Beyond Household Walls: The Spatial Structure of American Extended Kinship Networks.

How far do Americans live from their close and extended kin? The answer is likely to structure the types of social, instrumental, and financial support that they are able to provide to one another. Based on the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, kin pairs vary widely in odds of household co-residence, co-residence in the same administrative units, and inter-tract distances if they do not live in the same census tract. Multivariate regression tests show that family structure, educational attainment, and age are closely associated with kin proximity. Fixed effects models demonstrate that fam ily formation shapes spatial relations between kin.

Communication flows and the durability of a transnational social field.

We draw on unique data on communication flows between migrants and non-migrants in a bi-national, cross-border social network to test competing theories of the process of social incorporation. While advocates of the assimilation perspective argue that social incorporation is largely a one-way street, a recent literature on immigrant transnationalism challenges this view by arguing that changes in communication technologies and reductions in travel costs have made it possible for migrants to retain meaningful connections to their origin communities. In the context of this debate, we argue that communication flows-as measured by a combination of the number of social ties and the frequency of communication with them-provide an empirical test of the potential durability of cross-border networks. In our analysis, we find mixed support for both transnationalism and assimilation: while the classic assimilation perspective is correct that the strength of migrants' ties to origin attenuates as time in the destination increases, we also find evidence of a striking persistence in cross-border communication that is reinvigorated by migrant return visits, consistent with an attenuated view of transnationalism.

Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach.

This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, Northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: 1) a reference, 'normal' scenario; 2) seven years of unusually wet weather; 3) seven years of unusually dry weather; and 4) seven years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.

Brief Report: Respondent-driven Sampling Estimators Under Real and Theoretical Recruitment Conditions of Female Sex Workers in China.

We compare the performance of multiple respondent-driven sampling estimators under different sample recruitment conditions in hidden populations of female sex workers in the midst of China's ongoing epidemic of sexually transmitted infections. We first examine empirically calibrated simulations grounded in survey data to evaluate the relative performance of each estimator under ideal sampling conditions consistent with respondent-driven sampling assumptions and under conditions that mimic observed respondent-driven sampling recruitment processes. One estimator, which incorporates respondents' reports on their network of contacts, substantially out-performs the others under all conditions. We then apply the estimators to empirical samples of female sex workers collected in two Chinese cities that include unique data on respondents' networks. These empirical results are consistent with the simulation results, suggesting that traditional respondent-driven sampling estimators overestimate the proportion of female sex workers working in low tiers of sex work and are likely to overstate the sexually transmitted infection risk profiles of these populations.

Bi-national Social Networks and Assimilation: A Test of the Importance of Transnationalism.

While the concept of transnationalism has gained widespread popularity among scholars as a way to describe immigrants' long-term maintenance of cross-border ties to their origin communities, critics have argued that the overall proportion of immigrants who engage in transnational behavior is low and that, as a result, transnationalism has little sustained effect on the process of immigrant adaptation and assimilation. In this paper, we argue that a key shortcoming in the current empirical debate on transnationalism is the lack of data on the social networks that connect migrants to each other and to non-migrants in communities of origin. To address this shortcoming, our analysis uses unique bi-national data on the social network connecting an immigrant sending community in Guanajuato, Mexico, to two destination areas in the United States. We test for the effect of respondents' positions in cross-border networks on their migration intentions and attitudes towards the United States using data on the opinions of their peers, their participation in cross border and local communication networks, and their structural position in the network. The results indicate qualified empirical support for a network-based model of transnationalism; in the U.S. sample we find evidence of network clustering consistent with peer effects, while in the Mexican sample we find evidence of the importance of cross-border communication with friends.