Linking land-use and land-cover transitions to their ecological impact in the Amazon.

Human activities pose a major threat to tropical forest biodiversity and ecosystem services. Although the impacts of deforestation are well studied, multiple land-use and land-cover transitions (LULCTs) occur in tropical landscapes, and we do not know how LULCTs differ in their rates or impacts on key ecosystem components. Here, we quantified the impacts of 18 LULCTs on three ecosystem components (biodiversity, carbon, and soil), based on 18 variables collected from 310 sites in the Brazilian Amazon. Across all LULCTs, biodiversity was the most affected ecosystem component, followed by carbon stocks, but the magnitude of change differed widely among LULCTs and individual variables. Forest clearance for pasture was the most prevalent and high-impact transition, but we also identified other LULCTs with high impact but lower prevalence (e.g., forest to agriculture). Our study demonstrates the importance of considering multiple ecosystem components and LULCTs to understand the consequences of human activities in tropical landscapes.

Giants of the Amazon: How does environmental variation drive the diversity patterns of large trees?

For more than three decades, major efforts in sampling and analyzing tree diversity in South America have focused almost exclusively on trees with stems of at least 10 and 2.5 cm diameter, showing highest species diversity in the wetter western and northern Amazon forests. By contrast, little attention has been paid to patterns and drivers of diversity in the largest canopy and emergent trees, which is surprising given these have dominant ecological functions. Here, we use a machine learning approach to quantify the importance of environmental factors and apply it to generate spatial predictions of the species diversity of all trees (dbh ≥ 10 cm) and for very large trees (dbh ≥ 70 cm) using data from 243 forest plots (108,450 trees and 2832 species) distributed across different forest types and biogeographic regions of the Brazilian Amazon. The diversity of large trees and of all trees was significantly associated with three environmental factors, but in contrasting ways across regions and forest types. Environmental variables associated with disturbances, for example, the lightning flash rate and wind speed, as well as the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation, tend to govern the diversity of large trees. Upland rainforests in the Guiana Shield and Roraima regions had a high diversity of large trees. By contrast, variables associated with resources tend to govern tree diversity in general. Places such as the province of Imeri and the northern portion of the province of Madeira stand out for their high diversity of species in general. Climatic and topographic stability and functional adaptation mechanisms promote ideal conditions for species diversity. Finally, we mapped general patterns of tree species diversity in the Brazilian Amazon, which differ substantially depending on size class.

How Social Considerations Improve the Equity and Effectiveness of Ecosystem Restoration.

Ecosystem restoration is an important means to address global sustainability challenges. However, scientific and policy discourse often overlooks the social processes that influence the equity and effectiveness of restoration interventions. In the present article, we outline how social processes that are critical to restoration equity and effectiveness can be better incorporated in restoration science and policy. Drawing from existing case studies, we show how projects that align with local people's preferences and are implemented through inclusive governance are more likely to lead to improved social, ecological, and environmental outcomes. To underscore the importance of social considerations in restoration, we overlay existing global restoration priority maps, population, and the Human Development Index (HDI) to show that approximately 1.4 billion people, disproportionately belonging to groups with low HDI, live in areas identified by previous studies as being of high restoration priority. We conclude with five action points for science and policy to promote equity-centered restoration.

Anthropogenic disturbance in tropical forests can double biodiversity loss from deforestation.

Concerted political attention has focused on reducing deforestation, and this remains the cornerstone of most biodiversity conservation strategies. However, maintaining forest cover may not reduce anthropogenic forest disturbances, which are rarely considered in conservation programmes. These disturbances occur both within forests, including selective logging and wildfires, and at the landscape level, through edge, area and isolation effects. Until now, the combined effect of anthropogenic disturbance on the conservation value of remnant primary forests has remained unknown, making it impossible to assess the relative importance of forest disturbance and forest loss. Here we address these knowledge gaps using a large data set of plants, birds and dung beetles (1,538, 460 and 156 species, respectively) sampled in 36 catchments in the Brazilian state of Pará. Catchments retaining more than 69­80% forest cover lost more conservation value from disturbance than from forest loss. For example, a 20% loss of primary forest, the maximum level of deforestation allowed on Amazonian properties under Brazil's Forest Code, resulted in a 39­54% loss of conservation value: 96­171% more than expected without considering disturbance effects. We extrapolated the disturbance-mediated loss of conservation value throughout Pará, which covers 25% of the Brazilian Amazon. Although disturbed forests retained considerable conservation value compared with deforested areas, the toll of disturbance outside Pará's strictly protected areas is equivalent to the loss of 92,000­139,000 km2 of primary forest. Even this lowest estimate is greater than the area deforested across the entire Brazilian Amazon between 2006 and 2015 (ref. 10). Species distribution models showed that both landscape and within-forest disturbances contributed to biodiversity loss, with the greatest negative effects on species of high conservation and functional value. These results demonstrate an urgent need for policy interventions that go beyond the maintenance of forest cover to safeguard the hyper-diversity of tropical forest ecosystems.

Preserving 40% forest cover is a valuable and well-supported conservation guideline: reply to Banks-Leite et al.

Banks-Leite et al. (2021) claim that our suggestion of preserving ≥ 40% forest cover lacks evidence and can be problematic. We find these claims unfounded, and discuss why conservation planning urgently requires valuable, well-supported and feasible general guidelines like the 40% criterion. Using region-specific thresholds worldwide is unfeasible and potentially harmful.

Designing optimal human-modified landscapes for forest biodiversity conservation.

Agriculture and development transform forest ecosystems to human-modified landscapes. Decades of research in ecology have generated myriad concepts for the appropriate management of these landscapes. Yet, these concepts are often contradictory and apply at different spatial scales, making the design of biodiversity-friendly landscapes challenging. Here, we combine concepts with empirical support to design optimal landscape scenarios for forest-dwelling species. The supported concepts indicate that appropriately sized landscapes should contain ≥ 40% forest cover, although higher percentages are likely needed in the tropics. Forest cover should be configured with c. 10% in a very large forest patch, and the remaining 30% in many evenly dispersed smaller patches and semi-natural treed elements (e.g. vegetation corridors). Importantly, the patches should be embedded in a high-quality matrix. The proposed landscape scenarios represent an optimal compromise between delivery of goods and services to humans and preserving most forest wildlife, and can therefore guide forest preservation and restoration strategies.

Land use drives change in amazonian tree species.

The Amazonian rainforest has been subjected to exceptionally high rates of land use change (LUC), primarily for pasture. We present here an analysis of the impact of LUC on trees from studies made in Pará state. LUC results in drastic declines in native species richness, changes species composition and impacts community resilience and ecosystem services provided by the Amazonian rainforest. Given that secondary forests are expanding in Amazonia we argue that this regrowth forest should be taken into account when planning conservation in this region.

Second rate or a second chance? Assessing biomass and biodiversity recovery in regenerating Amazonian forests.

Secondary forests (SFs) regenerating on previously deforested land account for large, expanding areas of tropical forest cover. Given that tropical forests rank among Earth's most important reservoirs of carbon and biodiversity, SFs play an increasingly pivotal role in the carbon cycle and as potential habitat for forest biota. Nevertheless, their capacity to regain the biotic attributes of undisturbed primary forests (UPFs) remains poorly understood. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment of SF recovery, using extensive tropical biodiversity, biomass, and environmental datasets. These data, collected in 59 naturally regenerating SFs and 30 co-located UPFs in the eastern Amazon, cover >1,600 large- and small-stemmed plant, bird, and dung beetles species and a suite of forest structure, landscape context, and topoedaphic predictors. After up to 40 years of regeneration, the SFs we surveyed showed a high degree of biodiversity resilience, recovering, on average among taxa, 88% and 85% mean UPF species richness and composition, respectively. Across the first 20 years of succession, the period for which we have accurate SF age data, biomass recovered at 1.2% per year, equivalent to a carbon uptake rate of 2.25 Mg/ha per year, while, on average, species richness and composition recovered at 2.6% and 2.3% per year, respectively. For all taxonomic groups, biomass was strongly associated with SF species distributions. However, other variables describing habitat complexity-canopy cover and understory stem density-were equally important occurrence predictors for most taxa. Species responses to biomass revealed a successional transition at approximately 75 Mg/ha, marking the influx of high-conservation-value forest species. Overall, our results show that naturally regenerating SFs can accumulate substantial amounts of carbon and support many forest species. However, given that the surveyed SFs failed to return to a typical UPF state, SFs are not substitutes for UPFs.

Land use change emission scenarios: anticipating a forest transition process in the Brazilian Amazon.

Following an intense occupation process that was initiated in the 1960s, deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased significantly since 2004, stabilizing around 6000 km(2) yr(-1) in the last 5 years. A convergence of conditions contributed to this, including the creation of protected areas, the use of effective monitoring systems, and credit restriction mechanisms. Nevertheless, other threats remain, including the rapidly expanding global markets for agricultural commodities, large-scale transportation and energy infrastructure projects, and weak institutions. We propose three updated qualitative and quantitative land-use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon, including a normative 'Sustainability' scenario in which we envision major socio-economic, institutional, and environmental achievements in the region. We developed an innovative spatially explicit modelling approach capable of representing alternative pathways of the clear-cut deforestation, secondary vegetation dynamics, and the old-growth forest degradation. We use the computational models to estimate net deforestation-driven carbon emissions for the different scenarios. The region would become a sink of carbon after 2020 in a scenario of residual deforestation (~1000 km(2) yr(-1)) and a change in the current dynamics of the secondary vegetation - in a forest transition scenario. However, our results also show that the continuation of the current situation of relatively low deforestation rates and short life cycle of the secondary vegetation would maintain the region as a source of CO2 - even if a large portion of the deforested area is covered by secondary vegetation. In relation to the old-growth forest degradation process, we estimated average gross emission corresponding to 47% of the clear-cut deforestation from 2007 to 2013 (using the DEGRAD system data), although the aggregate effects of the postdisturbance regeneration can partially offset these emissions. Both processes (secondary vegetation and forest degradation) need to be better understood as they potentially will play a decisive role in the future regional carbon balance.

Toward an integrated monitoring framework to assess the effects of tropical forest degradation and recovery on carbon stocks and biodiversity.

Tropical forests harbor a significant portion of global biodiversity and are a critical component of the climate system. Reducing deforestation and forest degradation contributes to global climate-change mitigation efforts, yet emissions and removals from forest dynamics are still poorly quantified. We reviewed the main challenges to estimate changes in carbon stocks and biodiversity due to degradation and recovery of tropical forests, focusing on three main areas: (1) the combination of field surveys and remote sensing; (2) evaluation of biodiversity and carbon values under a unified strategy; and (3) research efforts needed to understand and quantify forest degradation and recovery. The improvement of models and estimates of changes of forest carbon can foster process-oriented monitoring of forest dynamics, including different variables and using spatially explicit algorithms that account for regional and local differences, such as variation in climate, soil, nutrient content, topography, biodiversity, disturbance history, recovery pathways, and socioeconomic factors. Generating the data for these models requires affordable large-scale remote-sensing tools associated with a robust network of field plots that can generate spatially explicit information on a range of variables through time. By combining ecosystem models, multiscale remote sensing, and networks of field plots, we will be able to evaluate forest degradation and recovery and their interactions with biodiversity and carbon cycling. Improving monitoring strategies will allow a better understanding of the role of forest dynamics in climate-change mitigation, adaptation, and carbon cycle feedbacks, thereby reducing uncertainties in models of the key processes in the carbon cycle, including their impacts on biodiversity, which are fundamental to support forest governance policies, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation.

How pervasive is biotic homogenization in human-modified tropical forest landscapes?

Land-cover change and ecosystem degradation may lead to biotic homogenization, yet our understanding of this phenomenon over large spatial scales and different biotic groups remains weak. We used a multi-taxa dataset from 335 sites and 36 heterogeneous landscapes in the Brazilian Amazon to examine the potential for landscape-scale processes to modulate the cumulative effects of local disturbances. Biotic homogenization was high in production areas but much less in disturbed and regenerating forests, where high levels of among-site and among-landscape ß-diversity appeared to attenuate species loss at larger scales. We found consistently high levels of ß-diversity among landscapes for all land cover classes, providing support for landscape-scale divergence in species composition. Our findings support concerns that ß-diversity has been underestimated as a driver of biodiversity change and underscore the importance of maintaining a distributed network of reserves, including remaining areas of undisturbed primary forest, but also disturbed and regenerating forests, to conserve regional biota.

A large-scale field assessment of carbon stocks in human-modified tropical forests.

Tropical rainforests store enormous amounts of carbon, the protection of which represents a vital component of efforts to mitigate global climate change. Currently, tropical forest conservation, science, policies, and climate mitigation actions focus predominantly on reducing carbon emissions from deforestation alone. However, every year vast areas of the humid tropics are disturbed by selective logging, understory fires, and habitat fragmentation. There is an urgent need to understand the effect of such disturbances on carbon stocks, and how stocks in disturbed forests compare to those found in undisturbed primary forests as well as in regenerating secondary forests. Here, we present the results of the largest field study to date on the impacts of human disturbances on above and belowground carbon stocks in tropical forests. Live vegetation, the largest carbon pool, was extremely sensitive to disturbance: forests that experienced both selective logging and understory fires stored, on average, 40% less aboveground carbon than undisturbed forests and were structurally similar to secondary forests. Edge effects also played an important role in explaining variability in aboveground carbon stocks of disturbed forests. Results indicate a potential rapid recovery of the dead wood and litter carbon pools, while soil stocks (0-30 cm) appeared to be resistant to the effects of logging and fire. Carbon loss and subsequent emissions due to human disturbances remain largely unaccounted for in greenhouse gas inventories, but by comparing our estimates of depleted carbon stocks in disturbed forests with Brazilian government assessments of the total forest area annually disturbed in the Amazon, we show that these emissions could represent up to 40% of the carbon loss from deforestation in the region. We conclude that conservation programs aiming to ensure the long-term permanence of forest carbon stocks, such as REDD+, will remain limited in their success unless they effectively avoid degradation as well as deforestation.

Zero deforestation and degradation in the Brazilian Amazon.

Brazil's main goal is zero deforestation and degradation (ZDD) in the Amazon. Existing policies do not consider the region's heterogeneity. Integrated sectoral policies are necessary for consolidating sustainable subregional territories. To protect the world's largest tropical forest while improving local people's lives, government agencies must overcome funding shortfalls and gaps in coordination.

Recuperation of nitrogen cycling in Amazonian forests following agricultural abandonment.

Phosphorus (P) is generally considered the most common limiting nutrient for productivity of mature tropical lowland forests growing on highly weathered soils. It is often assumed that P limitation also applies to young tropical forests, but nitrogen (N) losses during land-use change may alter the stoichiometric balance of nutrient cycling processes. In the Amazon basin, about 16% of the original forest area has been cleared, and about 30-50% of cleared land is estimated now to be in some stage of secondary forest succession following agricultural abandonment. Here we use forest age chronosequences to demonstrate that young successional forests growing after agricultural abandonment on highly weathered lowland tropical soils exhibit conservative N-cycling properties much like those of N-limited forests on younger soils in temperate latitudes. As secondary succession progresses, N-cycling properties recover and the dominance of a conservative P cycle typical of mature lowland tropical forests re-emerges. These successional shifts in N:P cycling ratios with forest age provide a mechanistic explanation for initially lower and then gradually increasing soil emissions of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N(2)O). The patterns of N and P cycling during secondary forest succession, demonstrated here over decadal timescales, are similar to N- and P-cycling patterns during primary succession as soils age over thousands and millions of years, thus revealing that N availability in terrestrial ecosystems is ephemeral and can be disrupted by either natural or anthropogenic disturbances at several timescales.

The climatic risk of Amazonian protected areas is driven by climate velocity until 2050.

Changes in species distribution in response to climate change might challenge the territorial boundaries of protected areas. Amazonia is one of the global regions most at risk of developing long distances between current and future analogous climates and the emergence of climate conditions without analogs in the past. As a result, species present within the network of Protected Areas (PAs) of Amazonia may be threatened throughout the 21st century. In this study, we investigated climate velocity based on future and past climate-analogs using forward and backward directions in the network of PAs of Amazonia, in order to assess the climatic risk of these areas to climate change and verify their effectiveness in maintaining the current climate conditions. Using current (1970-2000) and future (2041-2060) average annual air temperature and precipitation data with a resolution of 10 km, climate velocities across the entire Amazon biome and average climate velocities of PAs and Indigenous Lands (ILs) were evaluated. The results show that the effects of backward velocity will be greater than that of forward velocity in the Amazon biome. However, the PA network will be less exposed to backward velocity impacts than unprotected areas (UAs)-emphasizing the importance of these areas as a conservation tool. In contrast, for the forward velocity impacts, the PA network will be slightly more exposed than UAs-indicating that the current spatial arrangement of the PA network is still not the most suitable to minimize impacts of a possible climate redistribution. In addition, a large extent of no-analog climates for backward velocities was found in central Amazonia, indicating that high temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns in this region will surpass the historical variability of the entire biome, making it a potentially isolated and unsuitable climatic envelope for species in the future. Most of the no-analog climates are in PAs, however the climate risks in ILs should also be highlighted since they presented higher climate velocities than PAs in both metrics. Our projections contrast with the median latitudinal migration rate of 2 km/year observed in most ecosystems and taxonomic groups studied so far and suggest the need for median migration rates of 7.6 km/year. Thus, despite the important role of PAs and ILs as conservation tools, they are not immune to the effects of climate change and new management strategies, specific to each area and that allow adaptation to global changes, will be necessary.

Ecological integrity of tropical secondary forests: concepts and indicators.

Naturally regenerating forests or secondary forests (SFs) are a promising strategy for restoring large expanses of tropical forests at low cost and with high environmental benefits. This expectation is supported by the high resilience of tropical forests after natural disturbances, yet this resilience can be severely reduced by human impacts. Assessing the characteristics of SFs and their ecological integrity (EI) is essential to evaluating their role for conservation, restoration, and provisioning of ecosystem services. In this study, we aim to propose a concept and indicators that allow the assessment and classification of the EI of SFs. To this end, we review the literature to assess how EI has been addressed in different ecosystems and which indicators of EI are most commonly used for tropical forests. Building upon this knowledge we propose a modification of the concept of EI to embrace SFs and suggest indicators of EI that can be applied to different successional stages or stand ages. Additionally, we relate these indicators to ecosystem service provision in order to support the practical application of the theory. EI is generally defined as the ability of ecosystems to support and maintain composition, structure and function similar to the reference conditions of an undisturbed ecosystem. This definition does not consider the temporal dynamics of recovering ecosystems, such as SFs. Therefore, we suggest incorporation of an optimal successional trajectory as a reference in addition to the old-growth forest reference. The optimal successional trajectory represents the maximum EI that can be attained at each successional stage in a given region and enables the evaluation of EI at any given age class. We further suggest a list of indicators, the main ones being: compositional indicators (species diversity/richness and indicator species); structural indicators (basal area, heterogeneity of basal area and canopy cover); function indicators (tree growth and mortality); and landscape proxies (landscape heterogeneity, landscape connectivity). Finally, we discuss how this approach can assist in defining the value of SF patches to provide ecosystem services, restore forests and contribute to ecosystem conservation.

Pervasive gaps in Amazonian ecological research.

Biodiversity loss is one of the main challenges of our time,1,2 and attempts to address it require a clear understanding of how ecological communities respond to environmental change across time and space.3,4 While the increasing availability of global databases on ecological communities has advanced our knowledge of biodiversity sensitivity to environmental changes,5,6,7 vast areas of the tropics remain understudied.8,9,10,11 In the American tropics, Amazonia stands out as the world's most diverse rainforest and the primary source of Neotropical biodiversity,12 but it remains among the least known forests in America and is often underrepresented in biodiversity databases.13,14,15 To worsen this situation, human-induced modifications16,17 may eliminate pieces of the Amazon's biodiversity puzzle before we can use them to understand how ecological communities are responding. To increase generalization and applicability of biodiversity knowledge,18,19 it is thus crucial to reduce biases in ecological research, particularly in regions projected to face the most pronounced environmental changes. We integrate ecological community metadata of 7,694 sampling sites for multiple organism groups in a machine learning model framework to map the research probability across the Brazilian Amazonia, while identifying the region's vulnerability to environmental change. 15%-18% of the most neglected areas in ecological research are expected to experience severe climate or land use changes by 2050. This means that unless we take immediate action, we will not be able to establish their current status, much less monitor how it is changing and what is being lost.

Strong floristic distinctiveness across Neotropical successional forests.

Forests that regrow naturally on abandoned fields are important for restoring biodiversity and ecosystem services, but can they also preserve the distinct regional tree floras? Using the floristic composition of 1215 early successional forests (≤20 years) in 75 human-modified landscapes across the Neotropic realm, we identified 14 distinct floristic groups, with a between-group dissimilarity of 0.97. Floristic groups were associated with location, bioregions, soil pH, temperature seasonality, and water availability. Hence, there is large continental-scale variation in the species composition of early successional forests, which is mainly associated with biogeographic and environmental factors but not with human disturbance indicators. This floristic distinctiveness is partially driven by regionally restricted species belonging to widespread genera. Early secondary forests contribute therefore to restoring and conserving the distinctiveness of bioregions across the Neotropical realm, and forest restoration initiatives should use local species to assure that these distinct floras are maintained.