Destruction of the vascular viral receptor in infectious salmon anaemia provides in vivo evidence of homologous attachment interference.

Viral interference is a process where infection with one virus prevents a subsequent infection with the same or a different virus. This is believed to limit superinfection, promote viral genome stability, and protect the host from overwhelming infection. Mechanisms of viral interference have been extensively studied in plants, but remain poorly understood in vertebrates. We demonstrate that infection with infectious salmon anaemia virus (ISAV) strongly reduces homologous viral attachment to the Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L. vascular surface. A generalised loss of ISAV binding was observed after infection with both high-virulent and low-virulent ISAV isolates, but with different kinetics. The loss of ISAV binding was accompanied by an increased susceptibility to sialidase, suggesting a loss of the vascular 4-O-sialyl-acetylation that mediates ISAV attachment and simultaneously protects the sialic acid from cleavage. Moreover, the ISAV binding capacity of cultured cells dramatically declined 3 days after ISAV infection, accompanied by reduced cellular permissiveness to infection with a second antigenically distinct isolate. In contrast, neither infection with infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus nor stimulation with the viral mimetic poly I:C restricted subsequent cellular ISAV attachment, revealing an ISAV-specific mechanism rather than a general cellular antiviral response. Our study demonstrates homologous ISAV attachment interference by de-acetylation of sialic acids on the vascular surface. This is the first time the kinetics of viral receptor destruction have been mapped throughout the full course of an infection, and the first report of homologous attachment interference by the loss of a vascular viral receptor. Little is known about the biological functions of vascular O-sialyl-acetylation. Our findings raise the question of whether this vascular surface modulation could be linked to the breakdown of central vascular functions that characterises infectious salmon anaemia.

The emergence and shift in seasonality of Lyme borreliosis in Northern Europe.

Climate change has had a major impact on seasonal weather patterns, resulting in marked phenological changes in a wide range of taxa. However, empirical studies of how changes in seasonality impact the emergence and seasonal dynamics of vector-borne diseases have been limited. Lyme borreliosis, a bacterial infection spread by hard-bodied ticks, is the most common vector-borne disease in the northern hemisphere and has been rapidly increasing in both incidence and geographical distribution in many regions of Europe and North America. By analysis of long-term surveillance data (1995-2019) from across Norway (latitude 57°58'-71°08' N), we demonstrate a marked change in the within-year timing of Lyme borreliosis cases accompanying an increase in the annual number of cases. The seasonal peak in cases is now six weeks earlier than 25 years ago, exceeding seasonal shifts in plant phenology and previous model predictions. The seasonal shift occurred predominantly in the first 10 years of the study period. The concurrent upsurgence in case number and shift in case timing indicate a major change in the Lyme borreliosis disease system over recent decades. This study highlights the potential for climate change to shape the seasonal dynamics of vector-borne disease systems.

Individual heterogeneity in ixodid tick infestation and prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato in a northern community of small mammalian hosts.

Heterogeneous aggregation of parasites between individual hosts is common and regarded as an important factor in understanding transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Lyme disease is vectored by generalist tick species, yet we have a limited understanding of how individual heterogeneities within small mammal host populations affect the aggregation of ticks and likelihood of infection. Male hosts often have higher parasite and infection levels than females, but whether this is linked to sexual body size dimorphism remains uncertain. Here, we analysed how host species, sex, and body mass influenced Ixodes ricinus tick infestations and the infection prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.) in three species of small mammals involved in the enzootic transmission cycle of Lyme disease in Norway from 2018 to 2022. Larval and nymphal ticks were found on 98% and 34% of all individual hosts, respectively. In bank voles and wood mice, both larval and nymphal tick infestation and infection probability increased with body mass, and it increased more with mass for males than for females. Tick infestation in the common shrew increased with body mass and was higher in males, while pathogen infection was higher in females. Sex-biases in infestation did not correspond with level of sexual body mass dimorphism across species. This study contributes to our understanding of how individual heterogeneity among small mammalian hosts influences I. ricinus tick aggregation and prevalence of B. burgdorferi s.l. at northern latitudes.

The influence of temperature on the seasonality of historical plague outbreaks.

Modern plague outbreaks exhibit a distinct seasonal pattern. By contrast, the seasonality of historical outbreaks and its drivers has not been studied systematically. Here, we investigate the seasonal pattern, the epidemic peak timing and growth rates, and the association with latitude, temperature, and precipitation using a large, novel dataset of plague- and all-cause mortality during the Second Pandemic in Europe and the Mediterranean. We show that epidemic peak timing followed a latitudinal gradient, with mean annual temperature negatively associated with peak timing. Based on modern temperature data, the predicted epidemic growth of all outbreaks was positive between 11.7°C and 21.5°C with a maximum around 17.3°C. Hence, our study provides evidence that the growth of plague epidemics across the whole study region depended on similar absolute temperature thresholds. Here, we present a systematic analysis of the seasonality of historical plague in the Northern Hemisphere, and we show consistent evidence for a temperature-related process influencing the epidemic peak timing and growth rates of plague epidemics.

Lyme neuroborreliosis and bird populations in northern Europe.

Many vector-borne diseases are transmitted through complex pathogen-vector-host networks, which makes it challenging to identify the role of specific host groups in disease emergence. Lyme borreliosis in humans is now the most common vector-borne zoonosis in the Northern Hemisphere. The disease is caused by multiple genospecies of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato bacteria transmitted by ixodid (hard) ticks, and the major host groups transmit Borrelia genospecies with different pathogenicity, causing variable clinical symptoms in humans. The health impact of a given host group is a function of the number of ticks it infects as well as the pathogenicity of the genospecies it carries. Borrelia afzelii, with mainly small mammals as reservoirs, is the most common pathogen causing Lyme borreliosis, and it is often responsible for the largest proportion of infected host-seeking tick nymphs in Europe. The bird-borne Borrelia garinii, though less prevalent in nymphal ticks, is more likely to cause Lyme neuroborreliosis, but whether B. garinii causes disseminated disease more frequently has not been documented. Based on extensive data of annual disease incidence across Norway from 1995 to 2017, we show here that 69% of disseminated Lyme borreliosis cases were neuroborreliosis, which is three times higher than predicted from the infection prevalence of B. garinii in host-seeking ticks (21%). The population estimate of migratory birds, mainly of thrushes, explained part of the annual variation in cases of neuroborreliosis, with a one-year time lag. We highlight the important role of the genospecies' pathogenicity and the host associations for understanding the epidemiology of disseminated Lyme borreliosis.

How general are generalist parasites? The small mammal part of the Lyme disease transmission cycle in two ecosystems in northern Europe.

The pathogens causing Lyme disease are all vectored by generalist tick species found on a wide range of vertebrates, but spatial and annual variation in host use has rarely been quantified. We here compare the load of Ixodes ricinus (the vector) on small mammals and investigate the infection prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. (the pathogen) involved in the enzootic transmission cycle of Lyme disease in two contrasting ecosystems in Norway from 2014 to 2016. The most common larval tick host in the eastern region was the bank vole, while the common shrew dominated in the western region of Norway. However, the wood mouse and the bank vole had consistently higher larval tick loads than the common shrew in both ecosystems. Hence, the evidence indicated that species are differently suitable as hosts, regardless of their abundances. The pathogen infection prevalence was similar among small mammal species, but markedly higher in the region with larger small mammal populations and higher tick loads, while the seasonal and annual variation was less marked. Our study indicated that the generalist I. ricinus shows consistent patterns of load on species of small vertebrate hosts, while B. burgdorferi s.l. (B. afzelii) was a true generalist. The similar roles of host species across regions suggest that disease dynamics can be predicted from host community composition, but predicting the role of host community composition for disease dynamics requires a detailed understanding of the different species population limitations under global change.

Parasite load and seasonal migration in red deer.

Northern deer populations are typically partially migratory, but the relationship between migratory movements and parasites has received little attention. Migration often involves movement from a low-elevation winter range towards a summer range at higher elevation. In Europe these movements may also involve a gradient in abundance of Ixodes ricinus ticks, but whether tick loads on deer differ depending on migration tactic has not been quantified. Based on the examination of ears from 49 red deer (Cervus elaphus) marked with global positioning system collars, we provide the first evidence that the tick loads of deer covering longer distances between their winter and summer range, resulting in higher difference in elevation, are lower. Our study highlights that only the resident part of the red deer population will be available as year-round hosts to ticks, while a large part of the red deer population is unavailable to ticks for most of the tick questing season due to seasonal migration to higher elevation. Predicted changes in the migratory behaviour of ungulates could hence affect the proportion of the host population available to ticks in the future.

Vector competence of Ixodes ricinus instars for the transmission of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato in different small mammalian hosts.

BACKGROUND: Many pathogens and parasites can infect multiple host species, and the competence of different hosts as pathogen reservoirs is key to understanding their epidemiology. Small mammals are important hosts for the instar stages of Ixodes ricinus ticks, the principal vector of Lyme disease in Europe. Small mammals also act as reservoirs of Borrelia afzelii, the most common genospecies of the Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.) spirochetes causing Lyme disease in Europe. However, we lack quantitative estimates on whether different small mammal species are equally suitable hosts for feeding I. ricinus and whether they show differences in pathogen transmission from host to tick. METHODS: Here, we analysed the feeding success and prevalence of B. burgdorferi s.l. infections in 12,987 instar I. ricinus found on captured small mammals with known infection status in Norway (2018-2022). RESULTS: We found that larvae were more likely to acquire a blood meal from common shrews (Sorex araneus, 46%) compared to bank voles (Myodes glareolus, 36%) and wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus, 31%). Nymphs tended to be more likely to acquire a blood meal from wood mice (66%) compared to bank voles (54%). Common shrews harboured few nymphs (n=19). Furthermore, we found that larvae feeding on infected bank voles (11%) were more likely to be infected with B. burgdorferi s.l. than larvae on infected common shrews (7%) or wood mice (4%). CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides quantitative evidence of differences in suitability for the instar stages of I. ricinus across taxa of small mammals and highlights how even known small mammal host species can differ in their ability to feed ticks and infect larval ticks with the pathogen causing Lyme disease.

The red listed eagle owl (Bubo bubo) population in Norway is exposed to POP levels exceeding threshold values for adverse health effects.

The eagle owl (Bubo bubo) population in Norway is today classified as critically endangered on the red list of endangered species. Because previous studies have detected high concentrations of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) in birds of prey, concerns have been raised whether POPs exposure are a significant factor to the substantial decline of the eagle owl population. The aims of this study were to measure the levels of POPs in eagle owls and to assess whether POPs may represent a potential health risk. POPs were analysed in liver samples from 100 eagle owls collected between 1994 and 2014. The concentrations of POPs were generally very high and individual birds had levels among the highest measured worldwide. The contaminant groups analysed were highly correlated (p < 0.0001). The concentrations of sum of Polychlorinated Biphenyls (∑PCB) exceeded the threshold value from moderate to severe health risk in 90% of the birds. The birds with cachectic or lean body condition had significantly higher levels of contaminants than those with higher body condition scores. No significant temporal or spatial trends were noted. The lack of temporal trends, suggest that the downward trend of POPs, appear to be levelling off. The lack of differences between inland and coastal regions suggest that the risk of exposure may be comparable between predatory birds feeding in marine or terrestrial food webs. The significantly higher POPs levels detected in individuals with poor body condition may be due to reduced fat stores and thereby higher concentration in the remaining fat and/or the weight loss could be induced by toxic effects. The high proportion of birds exceeding the threshold values for severe and high risk of adverse effects, suggest that the high contamination load may reduce the eagle owl's fitness and survival and, thus, contribute to decline of the eagle owl population.

Harvest and decimation affect genetic drift and the effective population size in wild reindeer.

Harvesting and culling are methods used to monitor and manage wildlife diseases. An important consequence of these practices is a change in the genetic dynamics of affected populations that may threaten their long-term viability. The effective population size (N e) is a fundamental parameter for describing such changes as it determines the amount of genetic drift in a population. Here, we estimate N e of a harvested wild reindeer population in Norway. Then we use simulations to investigate the genetic consequences of management efforts for handling a recent spread of chronic wasting disease, including increased adult male harvest and population decimation. The N e/N ratio in this population was found to be 0.124 at the end of the study period, compared to 0.239 in the preceding 14 years period. The difference was caused by increased harvest rates with a high proportion of adult males (older than 2.5 years) being shot (15.2% in 2005-2018 and 44.8% in 2021). Increased harvest rates decreased N e in the simulations, but less sex biased harvest strategies had a lower negative impact. For harvest strategies that yield stable population dynamics, shifting the harvest from calves to adult males and females increased N e. Population decimation always resulted in decreased genetic variation in the population, with higher loss of heterozygosity and rare alleles with more severe decimation or longer periods of low population size. A very high proportion of males in the harvest had the most severe consequences for the loss of genetic variation. This study clearly shows how the effects of harvest strategies and changes in population size interact to determine the genetic drift of a managed population. The long-term genetic viability of wildlife populations subject to a disease will also depend on population impacts of the disease and how these interact with management actions.

Assessing freedom from chronic wasting disease in semi-domesticated reindeer in Norway and Sweden.

Establishing freedom from disease is a key component of surveillance and may have direct consequences for trade and economy. Transboundary populations pose challenges in terms of variable legislation, efforts, and data availability between countries, often limiting surveillance efficiency. Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a contagious prion disease of cervids. The long incubation period and slow initial epidemic growth make it notoriously difficult to detect CWD in the early phase of an epidemic. The recent emergence of CWD in wild reindeer in Norway poses a threat to approximately 250,000 semi-domesticated reindeer in Norway and 250,000 in Sweden, including transboundary populations. Here, we provide a first analysis of surveillance data (2016-2022) from all reindeer districts in Norway and Sweden to determine the probability of freedom from CWD infection. During the six years, 6017 semi-domesticated reindeer were tested in Sweden and 51,974 in Norway. Most samples came from healthy slaughtered animals (low risk). Reindeer use large and remote areas and (high risk) samples from fallen stock and animals with clinical signs were difficult to obtain. A scenario tree model was run for seven different set of values for the input parameters (design prevalence within and between districts, probability of introduction, and relative risks) to determine the effect on surveillance sensitivity. At the national level, the mean probability of disease freedom was 59.0 % in Sweden and 87.0 % in Norway by 2021. The most marked effect on sensitivity was varying the design prevalence both within and between districts. Uncertainty about relative risk ratios affected sensitivity for Sweden more than for Norway, due to the higher proportion of animals in the high-risk group in the former (13.8 % vs. 2.1 %, respectively). A probability of disease freedom of 90 % or higher was reached in 8.2 % of the 49 districts in Sweden and 43.5 % of the 46 districts in Norway for a design prevalence of 0.5 %. The probability of freedom remained below 60 % in 29 districts (59.2 %) in Sweden and 10 districts (21.7 %) in Norway. At the national level, only Norway had a sufficiently large number of samples to reach a probability of more than 95 % of disease freedom within a period of 10 years. Our cross-border assessment forms an important knowledge base for designing future surveillance efforts depending on the spatial pattern of prevalence of CWD and risk of spread.

Demographic patterns in Lyme borreliosis seasonality over 25 years.

Lyme borreliosis, the most common vector-borne disease in Europe and North America, is attracting growing concern due to its expanding geographic range. The growth in incidence and geographic spread is largely attributed to climate and land-use changes that support the tick vector and thereby increase disease risk. Despite a wide range of symptoms displayed by Lyme borreliosis patients, the demographic patterns in clinical manifestations and seasonal case timing have not been thoroughly investigated and may result from differences in exposure, immunity and pathogenesis. We analysed 25 years of surveillance data from Norway, supplemented by population demography data, using a Bayesian modelling framework. The analyses aimed to detect differences in case seasonality and clinical manifestations of Lyme borreliosis across age and sex differentiated patient groups. The results showed a bimodal pattern of incidence over age, where children (0-9 years) had the highest incidence, young adults (20-29 years) had low incidence and older adults had a second incidence peak in the ages 70-79 years. Youth (0-19 years) presented with a higher proportion of neuroborreliosis cases and a lower proportion of arthritic manifestations compared to adults (20+ years). Adult males had a higher overall incidence than adult females and a higher proportion of arthritis cases. The seasonal timing of Lyme borreliosis consistently occurred around 4.4 weeks earlier in youth compared to adults, regardless of clinical manifestation. All demographic groups exhibited a shift towards an earlier seasonal timing over the 25-year study period, which appeared unrelated to changes in population demographics. However, the disproportionate incidence of Lyme borreliosis in seniors requires increased public awareness and knowledge about this high-risk group as the population continues to age concurrently with disease emergence. Our findings highlight the importance of considering patient demographics when analysing the emergence and seasonal patterns of vector-borne diseases using long-term surveillance data.

Outdoor recreation, tick borne encephalitis incidence and seasonality in Finland, Norway and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020/2021).

During the pandemic outdoor activities were encouraged to mitigate transmission risk while providing safe spaces for social interactions. Human behaviour, which may favour or disfavour, contact rates between questing ticks and humans, is a key factor impacting tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) incidence. We analyzed annual and weekly TBE cases in Finland, Norway and Sweden from 2010 to 2021 to assess trend, seasonality, and discuss changes in human tick exposure imposed by COVID-19. We compared the pre-pandemic incidence (2010-2019) with the pandemic incidence (2020-2021) by fitting a generalized linear model (GLM) to incidence data. Pre-pandemic incidence was 1.0, 0.29 and 2.8 for Finland, Norway and Sweden, respectively, compared to incidence of 2.2, 1.0 and 3.9 during the pandemic years. However, there was an increasing trend for all countries across the whole study period. Therefore, we predicted the number of cases in 2020/2021 based on a model fitted to the annual cases in 2010-2019. The incidences during the pandemic were 1.3 times higher for Finland, 1.7 times higher for Norway and no difference for Sweden. When social restrictions were enforced to curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2 there were profound changes in outdoor recreational behavior. Future consideration of public health interventions that promote outdoor activities may increase exposure to vector-borne diseases.

Monitoring of chronic wasting disease (CWD) (IV).

The European Commission requested an analysis of the Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) monitoring programme in Norway, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland (9 January 2017-28 February 2022). Thirteen cases were detected in reindeer, 15 in moose and 3 in red deer. They showed two phenotypes, distinguished by the presence or absence of detectable disease-associated normal cellular prion protein (PrP) in lymphoreticular tissues. CWD was detected for the first time in Finland, Sweden and in other areas of Norway. In countries where the disease was not detected, the evidence was insufficient to rule out its presence altogether. Where cases were detected, the prevalence was below 1%. The data also suggest that the high-risk target groups for surveillance should be revised, and 'road kill' removed. Data show that, in addition to differences in age and sex, there are differences in the prion protein gene (PRNP) genotypes between positive and negative wild reindeer. A stepwise framework has been proposed with expanded minimum background surveillance to be implemented in European countries with relevant cervid species. Additional surveillance may include ad hoc surveys for four different objectives, specific to countries with/without cases, focusing on parallel testing of obex and lymph nodes from adult cervids in high-risk target groups, sustained over time, using sampling units and a data-driven design prevalence. Criteria for assessing the probability of CWD presence have been outlined, based on the definition of the geographical area, an annual assessment of risk of introduction, sustained minimum background surveillance, training and engagement of stakeholders and a surveillance programme based on data-driven parameters. All positive cases should be genotyped. Sample sizes for negative samples have been proposed to detect and estimate the frequency of PRNP polymorphisms. Double-strand sequencing of the entire PRNP open reading frame should be undertaken for all selected samples, with data collated in a centralised collection system at EU level.

Sea lice as a density-dependent constraint to salmonid farming.

Fisheries catches worldwide have shown no increase over the last two decades, while aquaculture has been booming. To cover the demand for fish in the growing human population, continued high growth rates in aquaculture are needed. A potential constraint to such growth is infectious diseases, as disease transmission rates are expected to increase with increasing densities of farmed fish. Using an extensive dataset from all farms growing salmonids along the Norwegian coast, we document that densities of farmed salmonids surrounding individual farms have a strong effect on farm levels of parasitic sea lice and efforts to control sea lice infections. Furthermore, increased intervention efforts have been unsuccessful in controlling elevated infection levels in high salmonid density areas in 2009-2010. Our results emphasize host density effects of farmed salmonids on the population dynamics of sea lice and suggest that parasitic sea lice represent a potent negative feedback mechanism that may limit sustainable spatial densities of farmed salmonids.

Risk map and spatial determinants of pancreas disease in the marine phase of Norwegian Atlantic salmon farming sites.

BACKGROUND: Outbreaks of pancreas disease (PD) greatly contribute to economic losses due to high mortality, control measures, interrupted production cycles, reduced feed conversion and flesh quality in the aquaculture industries in European salmon-producing countries. The overall objective of this study was to evaluate an effect of potential factors contributing to PD occurrence accounting for spatial congruity of neighboring infected sites, and then create quantitative risk maps for predicting PD occurrence. The study population included active Atlantic salmon farming sites located in the coastal area of 6 southern counties of Norway (where most of PD outbreaks have been reported so far) from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2010. RESULTS: Using a Bayesian modeling approach, with and without spatial component, the final model included site latitude, site density, PD history, and local biomass density. Clearly, the PD infected sites were spatially clustered; however, the cluster was well explained by the covariates of the final model. Based on the final model, we produced a map presenting the predicted probability of the PD occurrence in the southern part of Norway. Subsequently, the predictive capacity of the final model was validated by comparing the predicted probabilities with the observed PD outbreaks in 2011. CONCLUSIONS: The framework of the study could be applied for spatial studies of other infectious aquatic animal diseases.

Emergence, spread, persistence and fade-out of sylvatic plague in Kazakhstan.

Predicting the dynamics of zoonoses in wildlife is important not only for prevention of transmission to humans, but also for improving the general understanding of epidemiological processes. A large dataset on sylvatic plague in the Pre-Balkhash area of Kazakhstan (collected for surveillance purposes) provides a rare opportunity for detailed statistical modelling of an infectious disease. Previous work using these data has revealed a host abundance threshold for epizootics, and climatic influences on plague prevalence. Here, we present a model describing the local space-time dynamics of the disease at a spatial scale of 20 × 20 km(2) and a biannual temporal scale, distinguishing between invasion and persistence events. We used a Bayesian imputation method to account for uncertainties resulting from poor data in explanatory variables and response variables. Spatial autocorrelation in the data was accounted for in imputations and analyses through random effects. The results show (i) a clear effect of spatial transmission, (ii) a high probability of persistence compared with invasion, and (iii) a stronger influence of rodent abundance on invasion than on persistence. In particular, there was a substantial probability of persistence also at low host abundance.

Detection and quantification of the crayfish plague agent in natural waters: direct monitoring approach for aquatic environments.

Aphanomyces astaci, a specialised parasite of North American freshwater crayfish, is the disease agent of crayfish plague that is lethal to European freshwater crayfish. The life cycle of A. astaci has been inferred from experimental laboratory studies, but less is known about its natural sustainability and ecology. To address such questions, tools for monitoring of A. astaci directly in aquatic environments are needed. Here, we present an approach for detecting and quantifying A. astaci directly from water samples using species-specific TaqMan minor groove binder real-time PCR. Samples of a 10-fold dilution series from approximately 10(4) to approximately 1 spore of A. astaci were repeatedly tested, and reliable detection down to 1 spore was demonstrated. Further, to simulate real-life samples from natural water bodies, water samples from lakes of various water qualities were spiked with spores. The results demonstrated that co-extracted humic acids inhibit detection significantly. However, use of bovine serum albumin or the TaqMan Environmental Master Mix largely removes this problem. The practical application of the approach was successfully demonstrated on real-life water samples from crayfish farms in Finland hosting infected North American signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus. Direct monitoring of A. astaci from aquatic environments may find application in the management of wild noble crayfish Astacus astacus stocks, improved aquaculture practices and more targeted conservation actions. The approach will further facilitate studies of A. astaci spore dynamics during plague outbreaks and in carrier crayfish populations, which will broaden our knowledge of the biology of this devastating crayfish pathogen.

Bayesian temporal source attribution of foodborne zoonoses: Campylobacter in Finland and Norway.

Statistical source attribution approaches of food-related zoonoses can generally be based on reported diagnosed human cases and surveillance results from different food sources or reservoirs of bacteria. The attribution model, or probabilistic classifier, can thus be based on the (sub)typing information enabling comparison between human infections and samples derived from source surveillance. Having time series of both data allows analyzing temporal patterns over time providing a repeated natural experiment. A Bayesian approach combining both sources of information over a long time series is presented in the case of Campylobacter in Finland and Norway. The full model is transparently presented and derived from the Bayes theorem. Previous statistical source attribution approaches are here advanced (1) by explicit modeling of the cases not associated with any of the sources under surveillance over time, (2) by modeling uncertain prevalence in a food source by bacteria type over time, and (3) by implementing formal model fit assessment using posterior predictive discrepancy functions. Large proportion of all campylobacteriosis can be attributed to broiler, but considerable uncertainty remains over time. The source attribution is inherently incomplete if only the sources under surveillance are included in the model. All statistical source attribution approaches should include a model fit assessment for judgment of model performance with respect to relevant quantities of interest. It is especially relevant when the model aims at a synthesis of several incomplete information sources under significant uncertainty of explanatory variables.

Modeling the epidemiological history of plague in Central Asia: palaeoclimatic forcing on a disease system over the past millennium.

BACKGROUND: Human cases of plague (Yersinia pestis) infection originate, ultimately, in the bacterium's wildlife host populations. The epidemiological dynamics of the wildlife reservoir therefore determine the abundance, distribution and evolution of the pathogen, which in turn shape the frequency, distribution and virulence of human cases. Earlier studies have shown clear evidence of climatic forcing on contemporary plague abundance in rodents and humans. RESULTS: We find that high-resolution palaeoclimatic indices correlate with plague prevalence and population density in a major plague host species, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus), over 1949-1995. Climate-driven models trained on these data predict independent data on human plague cases in early 20th-century Kazakhstan from 1904-1948, suggesting a consistent impact of climate on large-scale wildlife reservoir dynamics influencing human epidemics. Extending the models further back in time, we also find correspondence between their predictions and qualitative records of plague epidemics over the past 1500 years. CONCLUSIONS: Central Asian climate fluctuations appear to have had significant influences on regional human plague frequency in the first part of the 20th century, and probably over the past 1500 years. This first attempt at ecoepidemiological reconstruction of historical disease activity may shed some light on how long-term plague epidemiology interacts with human activity. As plague activity in Central Asia seems to have followed climate fluctuations over the past centuries, we may expect global warming to have an impact upon future plague epidemiology, probably sustaining or increasing plague activity in the region, at least in the rodent reservoirs, in the coming decades.See commentary: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7007/8/108.