Survival outcomes for first-line antiretroviral therapy in India's ART program.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about survival outcomes of HIV patients on first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) on a large-scale in India, or facility level factors that influence patient survival to guide further improvements in the ART program in India. We examined factors at the facility level in addition to patient factors that influence survival of adult HIV patients on ART in the publicly-funded ART program in a high- and a low-HIV prevalence state. METHODS: Retrospective chart review in public sector ART facilities in the combined states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana (APT) before these were split in 2014 and in Rajasthan (RAJ), the high- and a low-HIV prevalence states, respectively. Records of adults initiating ART between 2007-12 and 2008-13 in APT and RAJ, respectively, were reviewed and facility-level information collected at all ART centres and a sample of link ART centres. Survival probability was estimated using Kaplan-Meier method, and determinants of mortality explored with facility and patient-level factors using Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: Based on data from 6581 patients, the survival probability of ART at 60 months was 76.3 % (95 % CI 73.0-79.2) in APT and 78.3 % (74.4-81.7) in RAJ. The facilities with cumulative ART patient load above the state average had lower mortality in APT (Hazard ratio [HR] 0.74, 0.57-0.95) but higher in RAJ (HR 1.37, 1.01-1.87). Facilities with higher proportion of lost to follow-up patients in APT had higher mortality (HR 1.47, 1.06-2.05), as did those with higher ART to pre-ART patient ratio in RAJ (HR 1.62, 1.14-2.29). In both states, there was higher hazard for mortality in patients with CD4 count 100 cells/mm3 or less at ART initiation, males, and in patients with TB co-infection. CONCLUSIONS: These data from the majority of facilities in a high- and a low-HIV burden state of India over 5 years reveal reasonable and similar survival outcomes in the two states. The facilities with higher ART load in the longer established ART program in APT had better survival, but facilities with a higher ART load and a higher ratio of ART to pre-ART patients in the less experienced ART program in RAJ had poorer survival. These findings have important implications for India's ART program planning as it expands further.

Decreasing cost of public sector first-line ART services in India from 2007-2008 to 2015-2016.

INTRODUCTION: India has scaled-up antiretroviral treatment (ART) in public sector facilities, but data to understand time trends of average cost of ART are limited. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Cost and output data were collected at all public sector ART centres in undivided Andhra Pradesh (high-HIV burden state) and Rajasthan (low-HIV burden state) in India from fiscal year 2007-2008 to 2012-2013. Average cost per patient for first-line ART, and its relation with scale of services, were assessed. Using data on scale of services, the average cost was estimated up to 2015-2016. Break-even point was estimated from average and marginal cost functions. Costs were adjusted to 2015 constant price. RESULTS: The average cost per patient alive and on ART in 2015-2016 was US$162 in undivided Andhra Pradesh and US$186 in Rajasthan, which was 51.4% and 35.8% lower than in 2007-2008, respectively. Average ART drug cost declined by 27.2% during this period, and was 70.9% and 61.5% of the total ART cost in the two states in 2015-2016. The average cost other than ART drugs declined by 73.1% and 45.7%, with the number of patients served increasing 7 and 14.2 times, respectively. Average cost other than ART drugs had a significant negative relation with scale (R2 = 86.4%-82.8%, p<0.001). Break-even analysis suggested that 47.5% and 58.8% of the ART centres in undivided Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan, respectively, were functioning below optimal scale in 2015-2016. The estimated total economic cost of first-line ART services provided in the public sector in India in fiscal year 2015-2016 was US$ 151 million; it would be US$ 216.1 million to provide this to all eligible persons in India. CONCLUSION: The average cost of providing first-line ART has declined in India, and further reduction is possible if the optimal scale of services is achieved. These findings can inform resource requirement for the ART programme in India.