Sex disparity in liver allocation within Eurotransplant.

In Eurotransplant, relatively more females than males die while waiting for liver transplantation, and relatively fewer females undergo transplantation. With adult liver transplantation candidates listed between 2007 and 2019 (n = 21 170), we study whether sex disparity is inherent to the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring system, or the indirect result of a small candidate body size limiting access to transplantation. Cox proportional hazard models are used to quantify the direct effect of sex on waitlist mortality, independent of the effect of sex through MELD scores, and the direct effect of sex on the transplantation rate, independent of the effect of sex through MELD and candidate body size. Adjusted waitlist mortality hazard ratios (HRs) for female sex are insignificant (HR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.88-1.20). We thus lack evidence that MELD systematically underestimates waitlist mortality rates for females. Transplantation rates are 25% lower for females than males in unadjusted analyses (HR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.71-0.77), but HRs become insignificant with adjustment for mediators (HR: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.93-1.04), most importantly candidate body size. Sex disparity in Eurotransplant thus appears to be largely a consequence of lower transplantation rates for females, which are explained by sex differences in body size.

Graft Steatosis and Donor Diabetes Mellitus Additively Impact on Recipient Outcomes After Liver Transplantation-A European Registry Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Biopsy-proven severe graft steatosis is associated with adverse outcomes after liver transplantation. The concomitant presence of metabolic risk factors might further increase this risk. We studied the association between graft steatosis and metabolic risk factors in the donor, with recipient outcomes after liver transplantation. METHODS: We analyzed data from all consecutive first adult full-graft donation after brain death (DBD) liver transplantations performed in the Eurotransplant region between 2010 and 2020. The presence of graft steatosis and metabolic risk factors was assessed through a review of donor (imaging) reports, and associations with recipient retransplantation-free survival were studied through survival analyses. RESULTS: Of 12 174 transplantations, graft steatosis was detected in 2689 (22.1%), and donor diabetes mellitus (DM), hypertension, and dyslipidemia were present in 1245 (10.2%), 5056 (41.5%), and 524 (4.3%). In multivariable Cox regression analysis, graft steatosis (adjusted HR [aHR] 1.197, p < 0.001) and donor DM (aHR 1.157, p = 0.004) were independently associated with impaired retransplantation-free survival. Graft steatosis and donor DM conferred an additive risk of retransplantation or death (DM alone, aHR: 1.156 [p = 0.0185]; steatosis alone, aHR: 1.200 [p < 0.001]; both steatosis and DM, aHR: 1.381 [p < 0.001]). Findings were consistent in sensitivity analyses focusing on retransplantation-free survival within 7 days. CONCLUSIONS: Graft steatosis and donor diabetes mellitus additively increase the risk of retransplantation or death in adult DBD liver transplantation. Future studies should focus on methods to assess and improve the quality of these high-risk grafts. Until such time, caution should be exercised when considering these grafts for transplantation.

Design, cohort profile and comparison of the KTD-Innov study: a prospective multidimensional biomarker validation study in kidney allograft rejection.

There is an unmet need for robust and clinically validated biomarkers of kidney allograft rejection. Here we present the KTD-Innov study (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03582436), an unselected deeply phenotyped cohort of kidney transplant recipients with a holistic approach to validate the clinical utility of precision diagnostic biomarkers. In 2018-2019, we prospectively enrolled consecutive adult patients who received a kidney allograft at seven French centers and followed them for a year. We performed multimodal phenotyping at follow-up visits, by collecting clinical, biological, immunological, and histological parameters, and analyzing a panel of 147 blood, urinary and kidney tissue biomarkers. The primary outcome was allograft rejection, assessed at each visit according to the international Banff 2019 classification. We evaluated the representativeness of participants by comparing them with patients from French, European, and American transplant programs transplanted during the same period. A total of 733 kidney transplant recipients (64.1% male and 35.9% female) were included during the study. The median follow-up after transplantation was 12.3 months (interquartile range, 11.9-13.1 months). The cumulative incidence of rejection was 9.7% at one year post-transplant. We developed a distributed and secured data repository in compliance with the general data protection regulation. We established a multimodal biomarker biobank of 16,736 samples, including 9331 blood, 4425 urinary and 2980 kidney tissue samples, managed and secured in a collaborative network involving 7 clinical centers, 4 analytical platforms and 2 industrial partners. Patients' characteristics, immune profiles and treatments closely resembled those of 41,238 French, European and American kidney transplant recipients. The KTD-Innov study is a unique holistic and multidimensional biomarker validation cohort of kidney transplant recipients representative of the real-world transplant population. Future findings from this cohort are likely to be robust and generalizable.

Liver transplantation for HCC in cirrhosis: Are Milan criteria outdated?

In Germany, organ allocation is based on the MELD-system and lab-MELD is usually low in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in cirrhosis. Higher medical urgency can be achieved by standard exception for HCC (SE-HCC), if Milan criteria (MC) are met. Noteworthy, UNOS T2 reflects MC, but excludes singular lesions < 2 cm. Thus, SE-HCC is awarded to patients with one lesion between 2 and 5 cm or 2 to 3 lesions between 1 and 3 cm. These criteria are static and do not reflect biological properties of HCC.We present a retrospective cohort of 111 patients, who underwent liver transplantation at UKSH, Campus Kiel between 2007 and 2017. No difference was found in overall survival for patient cohorts using Milan, UCSF, up-to-seven, and French-AFP criteria. However, there was a significantly reduced survival, if microvascular invasion was detected in the explanted organ and in patients with HCC-recurrence. The exclusive use of static selection criteria including MC appear to limit the access to liver transplantation.

Refitting the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease for the Eurotransplant Region.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The United Network for Organ Sharing's Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (UNOS-MELD) score is the basis of liver allocation in the Eurotransplant region. It was constructed 20 years ago in a small US cohort and has remained unchanged ever since. The best boundaries and coefficients were never calculated for any region outside the United States. Therefore, this study refits the MELD (reMELD) for the Eurotransplant region. APPROACH AND RESULTS: All adult patients listed for a first liver transplantation between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2018, were included. Data were randomly split in a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%). In the training data, generalized additive models with splines were plotted for each MELD parameter. The lower and upper bound combinations with the maximum log-likelihood were chosen for the final models. The refit models were tested in the validation data with C-indices and Brier scores. Through likelihood ratio tests the refit models were compared to UNOS-MELD. The correlation between scores and survival of prioritized patients was calculated. A total of 6,684 patients were included. Based on training data, refit parameters were capped at creatinine 0.7-2.5, bilirubin 0.3-27, international normalized ratio 0.1-2.6, and sodium 120-139. ReMELD and reMELD-Na showed C-indices of 0.866 and 0.869, respectively. ReMELD-Na prioritized patients with 1.6 times higher 90-day mortality probabilities compared to UNOS-MELD. CONCLUSIONS: Refitting MELD resulted in new lower and upper bounds for each parameter. The predictive power of reMELD-Na was significantly higher than UNOS-MELD. ReMELD prioritized patients with higher 90-day mortality rates. Thus, reMELD(-Na) should replace UNOS-MELD for liver graft allocation in the Eurotransplant region.

Retransplanting a previously transplanted kidney: A safe strategy in times of organ shortage?

BACKGROUND: The shortage of organs for transplantation remains a global problem. The retransplantation of a previously transplanted kidney might be a possibility to expand the pool of donors. We provide our experience with the successful reuse of transplanted kidneys in the Eurotransplant region. METHODS: A query in the Eurotransplant database was performed between January 1, 1995 and December 31, 2015, to find kidney donors who themselves had previously received a kidney graft. RESULTS: Nine out of a total of 68,554 allocated kidneys had previously been transplanted. Four of these kidneys were transplanted once again. The mean interval between the first transplant and retransplantation was 1689±1682 days (SD; range 55-5,333 days). At the time of the first transplantation the mean serum creatinine of the donors was 1.0 mg/dl (.6-1.3 mg/dl) and at the second transplantation 1.4 mg/dl (.8-1.5 mg/dl). The mean graft survival in the first recipient was 50 months (2-110 months) and in the second recipient 111 months (40-215 months). CONCLUSION: Transplantation of a previously transplanted kidney may successfully be performed with well-preserved graft function and long-term graft survival, even if the first transplantation was performed a long time ago. Such organs should be considered even for younger recipients in carefully selected cases.

Joint modeling of liver transplant candidates outperforms the model for end-stage liver disease: The effect of disease development over time on patient outcome.

Liver function is measured regularly in liver transplantation (LT) candidates. Currently, these previous disease development data are not used for survival prediction. By constructing and validating joint models (JMs), we aimed to predict the outcome based on all available data, using both disease severity and its rate of change over time. Adult LT candidates listed in Eurotransplant between 2007 and 2018 (n = 16 283) and UNOS between 2016 and 2019 (n = 30 533) were included. Patients with acute liver failure, exception points, or priority status were excluded. Longitudinal MELD(-Na) data were modeled using spline-based mixed effects. Waiting list survival was modeled with Cox proportional hazards models. The JMs combined the longitudinal and survival analysis. JM 90-day mortality prediction performance was compared to MELD(-Na) in the validation cohorts. MELD(-Na) score and its rate of change over time significantly influenced patient survival. The JMs significantly outperformed the MELD(-Na) score at baseline and during follow-up. At baseline, MELD-JM AUC and MELD AUC were 0.94 (0.92-0.95) and 0.87 (0.85-0.89), respectively. MELDNa-JM AUC was 0.91 (0.89-0.93) and MELD-Na AUC was 0.84 (0.81-0.87). The JMs were significantly (p < .001) more accurate than MELD(-Na). After 90 days, we ranked patients for LT based on their MELD-Na and MELDNa-JM survival rates, showing that MELDNa-JM-prioritized patients had three times higher waiting list mortality.

Validation of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease sodium (MELD-Na) score in the Eurotransplant region.

The MELD score is used in the Eurotransplant (ET) region to allocate liver grafts. Hyponatremia in cirrhotic patients is an important predictor of death but is not incorporated in MELD. This study investigated the performance of the MELD-Na score for the ET region. All adult patients with chronic liver disease on the ET liver transplantation waiting list (WL) allocated through lab MELD scores were included. The MELD-corrected effect of serum sodium (Na) concentration at listing on the 90-day WL mortality was calculated using Cox regression. The MELD-Na performance was assessed with c-indices, calibration per decile and Brier scores. The reclassification from MELD to MELD-Na score was calculated to estimate the impact of MELD-Na-based allocation in the ET region. For the 5223 included patients, the risk of 90-day WL death was 2.9 times higher for hyponatremic patients. The MELD-Na had a significantly higher c-index of 0.847 (SE 0.007) and more accurate 90-day mortality prediction compared to MELD (Brier score of 0.059 vs 0.061). It was estimated that using MELD-Na would reduce WL mortality by 4.9%. The MELD-Na score yielded improved prediction of 90-day WL mortality in the ET region and using MELD-Na for liver allocation will very likely reduce WL mortality.

Does kidney transplantation with a standard or expanded criteria donor improve patient survival? Results from a Belgian cohort.

BACKGROUND: Changes in recipient and donor factors have reopened the question of survival benefits of kidney transplantation versus dialysis. METHODS: We analysed survival among 3808 adult Belgian patients waitlisted for a first deceased donor kidney transplant from 2000 to 2012. The primary outcome was mortality during the median waiting time plus 3 years of follow-up after transplantation or with continued dialysis. Outcomes were analysed separately for standard criteria donor (SCD) and expanded criteria donor (ECD) kidney transplants. We adjusted survival analyses for recipient age (20-44, 45-64 and ≥65 years), sex and diabetes as the primary renal disease. RESULTS: Among patients ≥65 years of age, only SCD transplantation provided a significant survival benefit compared with dialysis, with a mortality of 16.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) 13.2-19.9] with SCD transplantation, 20.5% (95% CI 16.1-24.6) with ECD transplantation and 24.6% (95% CI 19.4-29.5) with continued dialysis. Relative mortality risk was increased in the first months after transplantation compared with dialysis, with equivalent risk levels reached earlier with SCD than ECD transplantation in all age groups. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study suggest that older patients might gain a survival benefit with SCD transplantation versus dialysis, but any survival benefit with ECD transplantation versus dialysis may be small.

Time-Varying Determinants of Graft Failure in Pediatric Kidney Transplantation in Europe.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the time-varying determinants of kidney graft failure in children. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study of primary pediatric kidney transplant recipients (younger than 18 years) from the Eurotransplant registry (1990-2020). Piece-wise exponential additive mixed models were applied to analyze time-varying recipient, donor, and transplant risk factors. Primary outcome was death-censored graft failure. RESULTS: We report on 4528 kidney transplantations, of which 68% with deceased and 32% with living donor. One thousand six hundred and thirty-eight recipients experienced graft failure, and 168 died with a functioning graft. Between 2011 and 2020, the 5-year graft failure risk was 10% for deceased donor and 4% for living donor kidney transplant recipients. Risk of graft failure decreased five-fold from 1990 to 2020. The association between living donor transplantation and the lower risk of graft failure was strongest in the first month post-transplant (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.58; 95% confidence interval, 0.46 to 0.73) and remained statistically significant until 12 years post-transplant. Risk factors for graft failure in the first 2 years were deceased donor younger than 12 years or older than 46 years, potentially recurrent kidney disease, and panel-reactive antibody >0%. Other determinants of graft failure included dialysis before transplantation (until 5 years post-transplant), human leukocyte antigen mismatch 2-4 (0-15 years post-transplant), human leukocyte antigen mismatch 5-6 (2-12 years post-transplant), and hemodialysis (8-14 years post-transplant). Recipients older than 11 years at transplantation had a higher risk of graft failure 1-8 years post-transplant compared with other age groups, whereas young recipients had a lower risk throughout follow-up. Analysis of the combined effect of post-transplant time and recipient age showed a higher rate of graft failure during the first 5 years post-transplant in adolescents compared with young transplant recipients. In contrast to deceased donor younger than 12 years, deceased donor older than 46 years was consistently associated with a higher graft failure risk. CONCLUSIONS: We report a long-term inverse association between living donor kidney transplantation and the risk of graft failure. The determinants of graft failure varied with time. There was a significant cumulative effect of adolescence and time post-transplant. The ideal donor age window was dependent on time post-transplant.

Introduction of the donor centre virtual crossmatch in Eurotransplant.

On 24 January 2023, Eurotransplant has introduced the virtual crossmatch for kidney and pancreas allocation as a better alternative for the physical Complement Dependent Cytotoxicity (CDC) crossmatches at the donor centre, which were associated with a longer cold ischaemia time and false positive reactions. For the time being, the physical CDC crossmatch at the recipient centre will remain in place as the final histocompatibility check. While Eurotransplant is certainly not the first organ allocation organisation to introduce virtual crossmatching, several novel aspects have been introduced, such as calculation of the virtual panel reactive antibody (vPRA) on 11 loci at the second-field level in addition to the serological broad and split level, electronic HLA typing data transmission using Histoimmunogenetics Markup Language (HML) file format, and the actual virtual crossmatch based on ambiguous, second-field HLA typing of the donor on all 11 loci. This short communication will focus on these novel aspects of the virtual crossmatch in Eurotransplant.

Pancreas Transplantation Outcome Predictions-PTOP: A Risk Prediction Tool for Pancreas and Pancreas-Kidney Transplants Based on a European Cohort.

Background: For patients with complicated type 1 diabetes having, for example, hypoglycemia unawareness and end-stage renal disease because of diabetic nephropathy, combined pancreas and kidney transplantation (PKT) is the therapy of choice. However, the shortage of available grafts and complex impact of risk factors call for individualized, impartial predictions of PKT and pancreas transplantation (PT) outcomes to support physicians in graft acceptance decisions. Methods: Based on a large European cohort with 3060 PKT and PT performed between 2006 and 2021, the 3 primary patient outcomes time to patient mortality, pancreas graft loss, and kidney graft loss were visualized using Kaplan-Meier survival curves. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed for 5- and 10-y prediction of outcomes based on 26 risk factors. Results: Risk factors associated with increased mortality included previous kidney transplants, rescue allocations, longer waiting times, and simultaneous transplants of other organs. Increased pancreas graft loss was positively associated with higher recipient body mass index and donor age and negatively associated with simultaneous transplants of kidneys and other organs. Donor age was also associated with increased kidney graft losses. The multivariable Cox models reported median C-index values were 63% for patient mortality, 62% for pancreas loss, and 55% for kidney loss. Conclusions: This study provides an online risk tool at https://riskcalc.org/ptop for individual 5- and 10-y post-PKT and PT patient outcomes based on parameters available at the time of graft offer to support critical organ acceptance decisions and encourage external validation in independent populations.

Allocation Rules and Age-Dependent Waiting Times for Kidney Transplantation­an Analysis of Data From the German Transplantation Registry.

BACKGROUND: Rigid age limits in the current allocation system for post-mortem donor kidneys in Germany may have problematic effects. The new German national transplantion registry enables data analysis with respect to this question. METHODS: Using anonymized data from the German national transplantion registry, we extracted and evaluated information on the recipients and postmortem donors of kidneys that were allocated in Germany through Eurotransplant over the period 2006-2020. RESULTS: Data on 19 664 kidney transplantations in Germany from 2006 to 2020 were analyzed. The median waiting time for kidney transplantation was 5.8 years. Persons under age 18 waited a median of 1.7 years; persons aged 18 to 64, 7.0 years; and persons aged 65 and older, 3.8 years. Over the period of observation, post-mortem kidneys were transplanted into 401 people of age 64 (2.0% of all organ recipients) and 1,393 people of age 65 (7.1% of all organ recipients). The difference in waiting times between allocation programs for persons under age 65 (ETKAS, "Eurotransplant Kidney Allocation System") and those aged 65 and older (ESP, "Eurotransplant Senior Program") increased over the period of observation, from 2.6 years in 2006-2010 to 4.1 years in 2017-2020. CONCLUSION: The rigid age limits in the current allocation rules for post-mortem kidney donations in Germany are prolonging the waiting times for transplants among patients aged 18 to 64. We think these rules need to be fundamentally reassessed.

Kidney Transplantation Outcome Predictions (KTOP): A Risk Prediction Tool for Kidney Transplants from Brain-dead Deceased Donors Based on a Large European Cohort.

BACKGROUND: European kidney donation shortages mandate efficient organ allocation by optimizing the prediction of success for individual recipients. OBJECTIVE: To develop the first European online risk tool for kidney transplant outcomes on the basis of recipient-only and recipient plus donor characteristics. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We used individual recipient and donor risk factors and three outcomes (death, death with functioning graft [DWFG], and graft loss) for 32 958 transplants within the Eurotransplant kidney allocation system and the Eurotransplant senior program between January 2006 and May 2018 in eight European countries to develop and validate a risk tool. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Cox proportional-hazards models were used to analyze the association of risk factors with overall patient mortality, and proportional subdistribution hazard regression models for their association with graft loss and DWFG. Prediction models were developed with recipient-only and recipient-donor risk factors. Sensitivity analyses based on time-specific area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with leave-one-country-out validation were performed and calibration plots were generated. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: The 10-yr cumulative incidence rate was 37% for mortality, 12% for DWFG, and 41% for graft loss. In recipient-donor models the leading risk factors for mortality were recipient diabetes (hazard ratio [HR] 10.73), retransplantation (HR 3.08 per transplant), and recipient age (HR 1.08). Effects were similar for DWFG. For graft loss, diabetes (subdistributional HR [SHR] 1.32), increased donor age (SHR 1.02), and prolonged cold ischemia time (SHR 1.02) had increased SHRs. All p values were <0.001. CONCLUSIONS: Previously identified risk factors for outcomes following kidney transplants allow for outcome prediction with 10-yr AUC values of up to 0.81. PATIENT SUMMARY: Using European data, we estimated individual risks to predict the success of kidney transplants and support physicians in decision-making. An online tool is now available (https://riskcalc.org/ktop/) for predicting kidney transplant outcomes both before and after a donor has been identified.

Immunized Patients Face Reduced Access to Transplantation in the Eurotransplant Kidney Allocation System.

BACKGROUND: The presence of donor-specific HLA antibodies before transplantation is associated with poor transplantation outcomes. Unacceptable antigens can be assigned for Eurotransplant kidney transplant candidates to prevent kidney offers against which the candidate has developed clinically relevant HLA antibodies. This retrospective cohort study aimed to assess to what degree unacceptable antigens affect access to transplantation in the Eurotransplant Kidney Allocation System (ETKAS). METHODS: Candidates who underwent kidney-only transplantation between 2016 and 2020 were included (n = 19 240). Cox regression was used to quantify the relationship between the relative transplantation rate and virtual panel-reactive antibodies (vPRAs), which is the percentage of the donor pool with unacceptable antigens. Models used accrued dialysis time as the timescale; were stratified by country and blood group of patient and were adjusted for nontransplantable status, patient age, sex, history of kidney transplantations, and prevalence of 0 HLA-DR-mismatched donors. RESULTS: Transplantation rates were 23% lower for vPRA 0.1% to 50%, 51% lower for vPRA 75% to 85%, and decreased rapidly for vPRA of >85%. Prior studies showed significantly lower ETKAS transplantation rates only for highly sensitized patients (vPRA of >85%). The inverse relationship between transplantation rate and vPRA is independent of Eurotransplant country, listing time, and 0 HLA-DR-mismatched donor availability. Results were similar when quantifying the relationship between vPRA and attainment of a sufficiently high rank for an ETKAS offer, suggesting lower transplantation rates for immunized patients are due to current ETKAS allocation. CONCLUSIONS: Immunized patients face lower transplantation rates across Eurotransplant. The current ETKAS allocation mechanism inadequately compensates immunized patients for reduced access to transplantation.

Rescue Allocation Modes in Eurotransplant Kidney Transplantation: Recipient Oriented Extended Allocation Versus Competitive Rescue Allocation-A Retrospective Multicenter Outcome Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Whenever the kidney standard allocation (SA) algorithms according to the Eurotransplant (ET) Kidney Allocation System or the Eurotransplant Senior Program fail, rescue allocation (RA) is initiated. There are 2 procedurally different modes of RA: recipient oriented extended allocation (REAL) and competitive rescue allocation (CRA). The objective of this study was to evaluate the association of patient survival and graft failure with RA mode and whether or not it varied across the different ET countries. METHODS: The ET database was retrospectively analyzed for donor and recipient clinical and demographic characteristics in association with graft outcomes of deceased donor renal transplantation (DDRT) across all ET countries and centers from 2014 to 2021 using Cox proportional hazards methods. RESULTS: Seventeen thousand six hundred seventy-nine renal transplantations were included (SA 15 658 [89%], REAL 860 [4.9%], and CRA 1161 [6.6%]). In CRA, donors were older, cold ischemia times were longer, and HLA matches were worse in comparison with REAL and especially SA. Multivariable analyses showed comparable graft and recipient survival between SA and REAL; however, CRA was associated with shorter graft survival. Germany performed 76% of all DDRTs after REAL and CRA and the latter mode reduced waiting times by up to 2.9 y. CONCLUSIONS: REAL and CRA are used differently in the ET countries according to national donor rates. Both RA schemes optimize graft utilization, lead to acceptable outcomes, and help to stabilize national DDRT programs, especially in Germany.

Impact of Sensitization on Waiting Time Prior to Kidney Transplantation in Germany.

BACKGROUND: Assignment of unacceptable HLA mismatches (UAMs) prevents transplantation of incompatible grafts but potentially prolongs waiting time. Whether this is true in the Eurotransplant Kidney Allocation System (ETKAS) and the Eurotransplant Senior Program in Germany is highly debated and relevant for UAM policies. METHODS: Donor pool restriction due to UAM was expressed as percent virtual panel-reactive antibodies (vPRAs). Kaplan-Meier estimates and multivariable Cox regression models were used to analyze the impact of vPRA levels on waiting time and transplant probability during a period of 2 y in all patients eligible for a kidney graft unter standard circumstances in Germany on February 1, 2019 (n = 6533). Utility of the mismatch probability score to compensate for sensitization in ETKAS was also investigated. RESULTS: In ETKAS, donor pool restriction resulted in significant prolongation of waiting time and reduction in transplant probability only in patients with vPRA levels above 85%. This was most evident in patients with vPRA levels above 95%, whereas patients in the acceptable mismatch program had significantly shorter waiting times and higher chances for transplantation than nonsensitized patients. In the Eurotransplant Senior Program, vPRA levels above 50% resulted in significantly longer waiting times and markedly reduced the chance for transplantation. Compensation for sensitization by the mismatch probability score was insufficient. CONCLUSIONS: Donor pool restriction had no significant impact on waiting time in most sensitized patients. However, despite the existence of the acceptable mismatch program, the majority of highly sensitized patients is currently disadvantaged and would benefit from better compensation mechanisms.

Development and validation of a dynamic survival prediction model for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is usually associated with a precipitating event and results in the failure of other organ systems and high short-term mortality. Current prediction models fail to adequately estimate prognosis and need for liver transplantation (LT) in ACLF. This study develops and validates a dynamic prediction model for patients with ACLF that uses both longitudinal and survival data. METHODS: Adult patients on the UNOS waitlist for LT between 11.01.2016-31.12.2019 were included. Repeated model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) measurements were jointly modelled with Cox survival analysis to develop the ACLF joint model (ACLF-JM). Model validation was carried out using separate testing data with area under curve (AUC) and prediction errors. An online ACLF-JM tool was created for clinical application. RESULTS: In total, 30,533 patients were included. ACLF grade 1 to 3 was present in 16.4%, 10.4% and 6.2% of patients, respectively. The ACLF-JM predicted survival significantly (p <0.001) better than the MELD-Na score, both at baseline and during follow-up. For 28- and 90-day predictions, ACLF-JM AUCs ranged between 0.840-0.871 and 0.833-875, respectively. Compared to MELD-Na, AUCs and prediction errors were improved by 23.1%-62.0% and 5%-37.6% respectively. Also, the ACLF-JM could have prioritized patients with relatively low MELD-Na scores but with a 4-fold higher rate of waiting list mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The ACLF-JM dynamically predicts outcome based on current and past disease severity. Prediction performance is excellent over time, even in patients with ACLF-3. Therefore, the ACLF-JM could be used as a clinical tool in the evaluation of prognosis and treatment in patients with ACLF. LAY SUMMARY: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) progresses rapidly and often leads to death. Liver transplantation is used as a treatment and the sickest patients are treated first. In this study, we develop a model that predicts survival in ACLF and we show that the newly developed model performs better than the currently used model for ranking patients on the liver transplant waiting list.

Development of the Eurotransplant Discard Risk Index to Predict Acceptance of Livers for Transplantation: A Retrospective Database Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The utilization of liver allografts could be optimized if nonacceptance is predicted. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic ability of an updated Discard Risk Index in Eurotransplant. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Potential deceased donors from January 2010 to December 2015 who had been reported to Eurotransplant were included in our analyses. Liver utilization was defined by transplant status as the primary outcome to evaluate the performance of the Eurotransplant-developed Discard Risk Index. RESULTS: Of 11670 potential livers, 9565 (81%) were actually transplanted. Donor sex, age, history of diabetes, drug abuse, use of vasopressors, body mass index category, serum sodium, cause of death, donor type, and levels of C-reactive protein, bilirubin, aspartate and alanine aminotransferases, international normalized ratio, and gamma-glutamyltranspeptidase were associated with discard and combined in the Eurotransplant-developed Discard Risk Index. Correlation between the two Discard Risk Indexes was high (r = 0.86), and both achieved high C statistics of 0.72 and 0.75 (P < .001), respectively. Despite strong calibration, discard rates of 0.8% for overall donors and 6% of donors after circulatory death could be predicted with 80% accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: The Eurotransplant-developed Discard Risk Index showed a high prognostic ability to predict liver utilization in a European setting. The model could therefore be valuable for identifying livers at high risk of not being transplanted in an early stage. These organs might profit the most from modified allocation strategies or advanced preservation techniques.