Correction: Health and economic benefits of achieving hepatitis C virus elimination in Pakistan: A modelling study and economic analysis.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003818.].

Economic evaluation of the Hepatitis C virus elimination program in the country of Georgia, 2015 to 2017.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In 2015, the country of Georgia launched an elimination program aiming to reduce the prevalence of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 90% from 5.4% prevalence (~150 000 people). During the first 2.5 years of the program, 770 832 people were screened, 48 575 were diagnosed with active HCV infection, and 41 483 patients were treated with direct-acting antiviral (DAA)-based regimens, with a >95% cure rate. METHODS: We modelled the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of HCV screening, diagnosis and treatment between April 2015 and November 2017 compared to no treatment, in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained in 2017 US dollars, with a 3% discount rate over 25 years. We compared the ICER to willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds of US$4357 (GDP) and US$871 (opportunity cost) per QALY gained. RESULTS: The average cost of screening, HCV viremia testing, and treatment per patient treated was $386 to the provider, $225 to the patient and $1042 for generic DAAs. At 3% discount, 0.57 QALYs were gained per patient treated. The ICER from the perspective of the provider including generic DAAs was $2285 per QALY gained, which is cost-effective at the $4357 WTP threshold, while if patient costs are included, it is just above the threshold at $4398/QALY. All other scenarios examined in sensitivity analyses remain cost-effective except for assuming a shorter time horizon to the end of 2025 or including the list price DAA cost. Reducing or excluding DAA costs reduced the ICER below the opportunity-cost WTP threshold. CONCLUSIONS: The Georgian HCV elimination program provides valuable evidence that national programs for scaling up HCV screening and treatment for achieving HCV elimination can be cost-effective.

Estimating hepatitis B virus prevalence among key population groups for European Union and European Economic Area countries and the United Kingdom: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) epidemiology in Europe differs by region and population risk group, and data are often incomplete. We estimated chronic HBV prevalence as measured by surface antigen (HBsAg) among general and key population groups for each country in the European Union, European Economic Area and the United Kingdom (EU/EEA/UK), including where data are currently unavailable. METHODS: We combined data from a 2018 systematic review (updated in 2021), data gathered directly by the European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC) from EU/EEA countries and the UK and further country-level data. We included data on adults from the general population, pregnant women, first time blood donors (FTBD), men who have sex with men (MSM), prisoners, people who inject drugs (PWID), and migrants from 2001 to 2021, with three exceptions made for pre-2001 estimates. Finite Mixture Models (FMM) and Beta regression were used to predict country and population group HBsAg prevalence. A separate multiplier method was used to estimate HBsAg prevalence among the migrant populations within each country, due to biases in the data available. RESULTS: There were 595 included studies from 31 countries (N = 41,955,969 people): 66 were among the general population (mean prevalence ([Formula: see text]) 1.3% [range: 0.0-7.6%]), 52 among pregnant women ([Formula: see text]1.1% [0.1-5.3%]), 315 among FTBD ([Formula: see text]0.3% [0.0-6.2%]), 20 among MSM ([Formula: see text]1.7% [0.0-11.2%]), 34 among PWID ([Formula: see text]3.9% [0.0-16.9%]), 24 among prisoners ([Formula: see text]2.9% [0.0-10.7%]), and 84 among migrants ([Formula: see text]7.0% [0.2-37.3%]). The FMM grouped countries into 3 classes. We estimated HBsAg prevalence among the general population to be < 1% in 24/31 countries, although it was higher in 7 Eastern/Southern European countries. HBsAg prevalence among each population group was higher in most Eastern/Southern European than Western/Northern European countries, whilst prevalence among PWID and prisoners was estimated at > 1% for most countries. Portugal had the highest estimated prevalence of HBsAg among migrants (5.0%), with the other highest prevalences mostly seen in Southern Europe. CONCLUSIONS: We estimated HBV prevalence for each population group within each EU/EAA country and the UK, with general population HBV prevalence to be < 1% in most countries. Further evidence is required on the HBsAg prevalence of high-risk populations for future evidence synthesis.

Insights from a national survey in 2021 and from modelling on progress towards hepatitis C virus elimination in the country of Georgia since 2015.

BackgroundBetween May 2015 and February 2022, 77,168 hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected people in Georgia have been treated through an HCV elimination programme. To project the programme's long-term impacts, an HCV infection model was initially developed, based on data from surveys among people who inject drugs and a national serosurvey in 2015.AimAccounting for follow-up surveys in 2021, we validate and update projections of HCV infection prevalence and incidence.MethodWe assessed the initial model projections' accuracy for overall prevalence, by age, sex, and among people who ever injected drugs, compared with 2021 serosurvey data. We used 2021 results to weight model fits and to recalculate the national programme's impact leading up to March 2022 on HCV infection incidence rates. Cases and deaths averted were estimated. The impact of reduced treatment rates during the COVID-19 pandemic was assessed.ResultsThe original model overpredicted adult (≥ 18 years old) chronic HCV infection prevalence for 2021 (2.7%; 95% credible interval (CrI): 1.9-3.5%) compared with a 2021 serosurvey (1.8%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3-2.4%). Weighted model projections estimated a 60% decrease in HCV infection incidence by March 2022, with an absolute incidence of 66 (95% CrI: 34-131) per 100,000 person-years (overall population). Between May 2015 and March 2022, 9,186 (95% CrI: 5,396-16,720) infections and 842 (95% CrI: 489-1,324) deaths were averted. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in 13,344 (95% CrI: 13,236-13,437) fewer treatments and 438 (95% CrI: 223-744) fewer averted infections by March 2022.ConclusionResults support the programme's high effectiveness. At current treatment rate (406/month), 90% reductions in prevalence and incidence in Georgia are achievable by 2030.

Estimates of hepatitis B virus prevalence among general population and key risk groups in EU/EEA/UK countries: a systematic review.

BackgroundThe burden of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) varies across the European Union (EU) and European Economic Area (EEA).AimWe aimed to update the 2017 HBV prevalence estimates in EU/EEA countries and the United Kingdom for 2018 to 2021.MethodsWe undertook a systematic review, adding to HBV prevalence estimates from an existing (2005-2017) database. Databases were searched for original English-language research articles including HBV surface antigen prevalence estimates among the general population, pregnant women, first-time blood donors (FTB), men who have sex with men (MSM), migrants and people in prison. Country experts contributed grey literature data. Risk of bias was assessed using a quality assessment framework.FindingsThe update provided 147 new prevalence estimates across the region (updated total n = 579). Median HBV prevalence in the general population was 0.5% and the highest was 3.8% (Greece). Among FTB, the highest prevalence was 0.8% (Lithuania). Estimates among pregnant women were highest in Romania and Italy (5.1%). Among migrants, the highest estimate was 31.7% (Spain). Relative to 2017 estimates, median prevalence among pregnant women decreased by 0.5% (to 0.3%) and increased by 0.9% (to 5.8%) among migrants. Among MSM, the highest estimate was 3.4% (Croatia). Prevalence among people in prison was highest in Greece (8.3%) and the median prevalence increased by 0.6% (to 2.1%).ConclusionsThe HBV prevalence is low in the general population and confined to risk populations in most European countries with some exceptions. Screening and treatment should be targeted to people in prison and migrants.

Costs of syringe vending machines in Tbilisi, Georgia.

BACKGROUND: Syringe vending machines (SVM) can improve access to sterile injecting equipment, but they have not been widely implemented or evaluated. We evaluate the cost of SVM installed between July 2019-December 2020 in Tbilisi, Georgia. METHODS: The SVM were stocked with several kit types, including injecting equipment for opioid or stimulant users, naloxone, male and female condoms, and pregnancy tests. We gathered financial data from the project to estimate fixed (staff time, start-up costs, equipment, running costs, and consumables) and variable (harm reduction kits) costs. We calculated the full cost of the SVM intervention, cost per user, cost per additional syringe accessed by SVM users, and cost per kit distributed (2020 Euros). RESULTS: SVM access cards were issued to 1132 users, and 29,238 kits were distributed through SVM, total cost €204,358. Staff costs were 51% of total, consumable costs 28%, equipment 10%, and start up, recurrent costs, and overheads 5% or less each. Opioid and stimulant kits were most accessed (35% and 32% of total). Cost per user was €66/year, and cost per transaction €7, of which €5 fixed costs and €2 variable. If monthly transactions increased from the average of 1622/month to highest monthly usage (4714), fixed costs per transaction would decrease to < €1. It cost €0.55 per additional syringe accessed/user/month. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence for governments about the cost of SVM, a novel harm reduction intervention. This is particularly relevant where Global Fund is withdrawing and harm reduction services need to be incorporated into national budgets.

Effect of police enforcement and extreme social inequalities on violence and mental health among women who sell sex: findings from a cohort study in London, UK.

OBJECTIVES: To examine legal and social determinants of violence, anxiety/depression among sex workers. METHODS: A participatory prospective cohort study among women (inclusive of transgender) ≥18 years, selling sex in the last 3 months in London between 2018 and 2019. We used logistic generalised estimating equation models to measure associations between structural factors on recent (6 months) violence from clients or others (local residents, strangers), depression/anxiety (Patient Health Questionnaire-4). RESULTS: 197 sex workers were recruited (96% cisgender-women; 46% street-based; 54% off-street) and 60% completed a follow-up questionnaire. Street-based sex workers experienced greater inequalities compared with off-street in relation to recent violence from clients (73% vs 36%); police (42% vs 7%); intimate partner violence (IPV) (56% vs 18%) and others (67% vs 17%), as well as homelessness (65% vs 7%) and recent law enforcement (87% vs 9%). Prevalence of any STI was 17.5% (17/97). For street-based sex workers, recent arrest was associated with violence from others (adjusted OR (aOR) 2.77; 95% CI 1.11 to 6.94) and displacement by police was associated with client violence (aOR 4.35; 95% CI 1.36 to 13.90). Financial difficulties were also associated with client violence (aOR 4.66; 95% CI 1.64 to 13.24). Disability (aOR 3.85; 95% CI 1.49 to 9.95) and client violence (aOR 2.55; 95% CI 1.10 to 5.91) were associated with anxiety/depression. For off-street sex workers, financial difficulties (aOR 3.66; 95% CI 1.64 to 8.18), unstable residency (aOR 3.19; 95% CI 1.36 to 7.49), IPV (aOR 3.77; 95% CI 1.30 to 11.00) and alcohol/drug use were associated with client violence (aOR 3.16; 95% CI 1.26 to 7.92), while always screening and refusing clients was protective (aOR 0.36; 95% CI 0.15 to 0.87). Disability (aOR 5.83; 95% CI 2.34 to 14.51), unmet mental health needs (aOR 3.08; 95% CI 1.15 to 8.23) and past eviction (aOR 3.99; 95% CI 1.23 to 12.92) were associated with anxiety/depression. CONCLUSIONS: Violence, anxiety/depression are linked to poverty, unstable housing and police enforcement. We need to modify laws to allow sex workers to work safely and increase availability of housing and mental health services.

The Effect of Systemic Racism and Homophobia on Police Enforcement and Sexual and Emotional Violence among Sex Workers in East London: Findings from a Cohort Study.

There is extensive qualitative evidence of violence and enforcement impacting sex workers who are ethnically or racially minoritized, and gender or sexual minority sex workers, but there is little quantitative evidence. Baseline and follow-up data were collected among 288 sex workers of diverse genders (cis/transgender women and men and non-binary people) in London (2018-2019). Interviewer-administered and self-completed questionnaires included reports of rape, emotional violence, and (un)lawful police encounters. We used generalized estimating equation models (Stata vs 16.1) to measure associations between (i) ethnic/racial identity (Black, Asian, mixed or multiple vs White) and recent (6 months) or past police enforcement and (ii) ethnic/racial and sexual identity (lesbian, gay or bisexual (LGB) vs. heterosexual) with recent rape and emotional violence (there was insufficient data to examine the association with transgender/non-binary identities). Ethnically/racially minoritized sex workers (26.4%) reported more police encounters partly due to increased representation in street settings (51.4% vs 30.7% off-street, p = 0.002). After accounting for street setting, ethnically/racially minoritized sex workers had higher odds of recent arrest (adjusted odds ratio 2.8, 95% CI 1.3-5.8), past imprisonment (aOR 2.3, 95% CI 1.1-5.0), police extortion (aOR 3.3, 95% CI 1.4-7.8), and rape (aOR 3.6, 95% CI 1.1-11.5). LGB-identifying sex workers (55.4%) were more vulnerable to rape (aOR 2.4, 95% CI 1.1-5.2) and emotional violence. Sex workers identifying as ethnically/racially minoritized (aOR 2.1, 95% CI 1.0-4.5), LGB (aOR 2.0, 95% CI 1.0-4.0), or who use drugs (aOR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1-3.8) were more likely to have experienced emotional violence than white-identifying, heterosexual or those who did not use drugs. Experience of any recent police enforcement was associated with increased odds of rape (aOR 3.6, 95% CI 1.3-8.4) and emotional violence (aOR 4.9, 95% CI 1.8-13.0). Findings show how police enforcement disproportionately targets ethnically/racially minoritized sex workers and contributes to increased risk of rape and emotional violence, which is elevated among sexual and ethnically/racially minoritized workers.

Health and economic benefits of achieving hepatitis C virus elimination in Pakistan: A modelling study and economic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Modelling suggests that achieving the WHO incidence target for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in Pakistan could cost US$3.87 billion over 2018 to 2030. However, the economic benefits from integrating services or improving productivity were not included. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We adapt a HCV transmission model for Pakistan to estimate the impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of achieving HCV elimination (reducing annual HCV incidence by 80% by 2030) with stand-alone service delivery, or partially integrating one-third of initial HCV testing into existing healthcare services. We estimate the net economic benefits by comparing the required investment in screening, treatment, and healthcare management to the economic productivity gains from reduced HCV-attributable absenteeism, presenteeism, and premature deaths. We also calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted for HCV elimination versus maintaining current levels of HCV treatment. This is compared to an opportunity cost-based willingness-to-pay threshold for Pakistan (US$148 to US$198/DALY). Compared to existing levels of treatment, scaling up screening and treatment to achieve HCV elimination in Pakistan averts 5.57 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 3.80 to 8.22) million DALYs and 333,000 (219,000 to 509,000) HCV-related deaths over 2018 to 2030. If HCV testing is partially integrated, this scale-up requires an investment of US$1.45 (1.32 to 1.60) billion but will result in US$1.30 (0.94 to 1.72) billion in improved economic productivity over 2018 to 2030. This elimination strategy is highly cost-effective (ICER = US$29 per DALY averted) by 2030, with it becoming cost-saving by 2031 and having a net economic benefit of US$9.10 (95% UI 6.54 to 11.99) billion by 2050. Limitations include uncertainty around what level of integration is possible within existing primary healthcare services as well as a lack of Pakistan-specific data on disease-related healthcare management costs or productivity losses due to HCV. CONCLUSIONS: Investment in HCV elimination can bring about substantial societal health and economic benefits for Pakistan.

Cost-effectiveness of screening and treatment using direct-acting antivirals for chronic Hepatitis C virus in a primary care setting in Karachi, Pakistan.

Despite the availability of effective direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatments for Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, many people remain undiagnosed and untreated. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of a Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) HCV screening and treatment programme within a primary health clinic in Karachi, Pakistan. A health state transition Markov model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the MSF programme. Programme cost and outcome data were analysed retrospectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated in terms of incremental cost (2016 US$) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted from the provider's perspective over a lifetime horizon. The robustness of the model was evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA). The ICER for implementing testing and treatment compared to no programme was US$450/DALY averted, with 100% of PSA runs falling below the per capita Gross Domestic Product threshold for cost-effective interventions for Pakistan (US$1,422). The ICER increased to US$532/DALY averted assuming national HCV seroprevalence (5.5% versus 33% observed in the intervention). If the cost of liver disease care was included (adapted from resource use data from Cambodia which has similar GDP to Pakistan), the ICER dropped to US$148/DALY, while it became cost-saving if a recently negotiated reduced drug cost of $75/treatment course was assumed (versus $282 in base-case) in addition to cost of liver disease care. In conclusion, screening and DAA treatment for HCV infection are expected to be highly cost-effective in Pakistan, supporting the expansion of similar screening and treatment programmes across Pakistan.

Exploratory comparison of Healthcare costs and benefits of the UK's Covid-19 response with four European countries.

BACKGROUND: In responding to Covid-19, governments have tried to balance protecting health while minimizing gross domestic product (GDP) losses. We compare health-related net benefit (HRNB) and GDP losses associated with government responses of the UK, Ireland, Germany, Spain and Sweden from UK healthcare payer perspective. METHODS: We compared observed cases, hospitalizations and deaths under 'mitigation' to modelled events under 'no mitigation' to 20 July 2020. We thus calculated healthcare costs, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), and HRNB at £20,000/QALY saved by each country. On per population (i.e. per capita) basis, we compared HRNB with forecast reductions in 2020 GDP growth (overall or compared with Sweden as minimal mitigation country) and qualitatively and quantitatively described government responses. RESULTS: The UK saved 3.17 (0.32-3.65) million QALYs, £33 (8-38) billion healthcare costs and £1416 (220-1637) HRNB per capita at £20,000/QALY. Per capita, this is comparable to £1455 GDP loss using Sweden as comparator and offsets 46.1 (7.1-53.2)% of total £3075 GDP loss. Germany, Spain, and Sweden had greater HRNB per capita. These also offset a greater percentage of total GDP losses per capita. Ireland fared worst on both measures. Countries with more mask wearing, testing, and population susceptibility had better outcomes. Highest stringency responses did not appear to have best outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Our exploratory analysis indicates the benefit of government Covid-19 responses may outweigh their economic costs. The extent that HRNB offset economic losses appears to relate to population characteristics, testing levels, and mask wearing, rather than response stringency.

Cost and cost-effectiveness of a simplified treatment model with direct-acting antivirals for chronic hepatitis C in Cambodia.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In 2016, Médecins Sans Frontières established the first general population Hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening and treatment site in Cambodia, offering free direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment. This study analysed the cost-effectiveness of this intervention. METHODS: Costs, quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and cost-effectiveness of the intervention were projected with a Markov model over a lifetime horizon, discounted at 3%/year. Patient-level resource-use and outcome data, treatment costs, costs of HCV-related healthcare and EQ-5D-5L health states were collected from an observational cohort study evaluating the effectiveness of DAA treatment under full and simplified models of care compared to no treatment; other model parameters were derived from literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (cost/QALY gained) were compared to an opportunity cost-based willingness-to-pay threshold for Cambodia ($248/QALY). RESULTS: The total cost of testing and treatment per patient for the full model of care was $925(IQR $668-1631), reducing to $376(IQR $344-422) for the simplified model of care. EQ-5D-5L values varied by fibrosis stage: decompensated cirrhosis had the lowest value, values increased during and following treatment. The simplified model of care was cost saving compared to no treatment, while the full model of care, although cost-effective compared to no treatment ($187/QALY), cost an additional $14 485/QALY compared to the simplified model, above the willingness-to-pay threshold for Cambodia. This result is robust to variation in parameters. CONCLUSIONS: The simplified model of care was cost saving compared to no treatment, emphasizing the importance of simplifying pathways of care for improving access to HCV treatment in low-resource settings.

Modelling the potential prevention benefits of a treat-all hepatitis C treatment strategy at global, regional and country levels: A modelling study.

The World Health Organization (WHO) recently produced guidelines advising a treat-all policy for HCV to encourage widespread treatment scale-up for achieving HCV elimination. We modelled the prevention impact achieved (HCV infections averted [IA]) from initiating this policy compared with treating different subgroups at country, regional and global levels. We assessed what country-level factors affect impact. A dynamic, deterministic HCV transmission model was calibrated to data from global systematic reviews and UN data sets to simulate country-level HCV epidemics with ongoing levels of treatment. For each country, the model projected the prevention impact (in HCV IA per treatment undertaken) of initiating four treatment strategies; either selected randomly (treat-all) or targeted among people who inject drugs (PWID), people aged ≥35, or those with cirrhosis. The IA was assessed over 20 years. Linear regression was used to identify associations between IA per treatment and demographic factors. Eighty-eight countries (85% of the global population) were modelled. Globally, the model estimated 0.35 (95% credibility interval [95%CrI]: 0.16-0.61) IA over 20 years for every randomly allocated treatment, 0.30 (95%CrI: 0.12-0.53) from treating those aged ≥35 and 0.28 (95%CrI: 0.12-0.49) for those with cirrhosis. Globally, treating PWID achieved 1.27 (95%CrI: 0.68-2.04) IA per treatment. The IA per randomly allocated treatment was positively associated with a country's population growth rate and negatively associated with higher HCV prevalence among PWID. In conclusion, appreciable prevention benefits could be achieved from WHO's treat-all strategy, although greater benefits per treatment can be achieved through targeting PWID. Higher impact will be achieved in countries with high population growth.

"One Health" or Three? Publication Silos Among the One Health Disciplines.

The One Health initiative is a global effort fostering interdisciplinary collaborations to address challenges in human, animal, and environmental health. While One Health has received considerable press, its benefits remain unclear because its effects have not been quantitatively described. We systematically surveyed the published literature and used social network analysis to measure interdisciplinarity in One Health studies constructing dynamic pathogen transmission models. The number of publications fulfilling our search criteria increased by 14.6% per year, which is faster than growth rates for life sciences as a whole and for most biology subdisciplines. Surveyed publications clustered into three communities: one used by ecologists, one used by veterinarians, and a third diverse-authorship community used by population biologists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, and experts in human health. Overlap between these communities increased through time in terms of author number, diversity of co-author affiliations, and diversity of citations. However, communities continue to differ in the systems studied, questions asked, and methods employed. While the infectious disease research community has made significant progress toward integrating its participating disciplines, some segregation--especially along the veterinary/ecological research interface--remains.

Transmission dynamics and effect of control measures on the 2022 outbreak of mpox among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men in England: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The 2022 global outbreak of mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) spread primarily among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM), with the initial cluster being identified in England in May, 2022. Understanding its epidemiological characteristics and the reasons for its downturn in July, 2022, will help to control future outbreaks. METHODS: We collated data for all diagnosed mpox cases (3621) from England from May 1, 2022, to Nov 16, 2022. Data from 75 individuals with mpox allowed estimation of the incubation period, while data from 121 case-contact pairs were used to estimate the serial interval. Six methods, including a structured dynamic compartmental transmission model, were used to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0). The structured model assumed all male individuals with mpox were GBMSM, who were then stratified into subgroups for those at low risk and high risk for mpox. This best fitting model was used to estimate the reduction in transmissibility, and the effective infectious period (before isolating), that resulted in the outbreak downturn, and the effect of vaccination initiated from June 27, 2022. Bayesian methods were used for parameter estimation and model calibration. FINDINGS: Most cases occurred in men (3544 of 3621, 97·9%). The median incubation period for mpox was 6·90 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 4·08-20·21), and the serial interval was 8·82 days (5·22-25·81). R0 estimates ranged from 1·41 to 2·17. The structured transmission model estimated that 83·8% of infections (95% CrI 83·5-85·3) resulted from sexual partnerships with GBMSM individuals at high risk of mpox. The outbreak downturn probably resulted from a 44·5% reduction in the sexual partner rate among all GBMSM (24·9-55·8) and 20·0% reduction in the effective infectious period (4·1-33·9), preventing 165 896 infections (115 584-217 730). Vaccination marginally increased the number of infections prevented (166 081, 115 745-217 947), but minimised a resurgence in cases from January, 2023, and could have averted four times more infections if initiated earlier. Our findings were sensitive to assumptions regarding the vaccine's effectiveness and the GBMSM subgroup at high risk of mpox. INTERPRETATION: The mpox outbreak in England probably resulted from high sexual partner rates among some GBMSM, with reductions in partner rates reversing the outbreak, and with vaccination minimising future outbreaks. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research (UK).

The impact of policing and homelessness on violence experienced by women who sell sex in London: a modelling study.

Street-based sex workers experience considerable homelessness, drug use and police enforcement, making them vulnerable to violence from clients and other perpetrators. We used a deterministic compartmental model of street-based sex workers in London to estimate whether displacement by police and unstable housing/homelessness increases client violence. The model was parameterized and calibrated using data from a cohort study of sex workers, to the baseline percentage homeless (64%), experiencing recent client violence (72%), or recent displacement (78%), and the odds ratios of experiencing violence if homeless (1.97, 95% confidence interval 0.88-4.43) or displaced (4.79, 1.99-12.11), or of experiencing displacement if homeless (3.60, 1.59-8.17). Ending homelessness and police displacement reduces violence by 67% (95% credible interval 53-81%). The effects are non-linear; halving the rate of policing or becoming homeless reduces violence by 5.7% (3.5-10.3%) or 6.7% (3.7-10.2%), respectively. Modelled interventions have small impact with violence reducing by: 5.1% (2.1-11.4%) if the rate of becoming housed increases from 1.4 to 3.2 per person-year (Housing First initiative); 3.9% (2.4-6.9%) if the rate of policing reduces by 39% (level if recent increases had not occurred); and 10.2% (5.9-19.6%) in combination. Violence reduces by 26.5% (22.6-28.2%) if half of housed sex workers transition to indoor sex work. If homelessness decreased and policing increased as occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the impact on violence is negligible, decreasing by 0.7% (8.7% decrease-4.1% increase). Increasing housing and reducing policing among street-based sex workers could substantially reduce violence, but large changes are needed.

Mitigation through on-site testing & education among formerly incarcerated individuals against Covid-19 - The MOSAIC study: Design and rationale.

BACKGROUND: Many of the largest COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States have occurred at carceral facilities. Criminal legal system (CLS)-involved individuals typically face structural barriers accessing medical care post-release. Improving COVID-19 testing and education for CLS-involved individuals could improve health outcomes for this vulnerable population and the communities to which they return. Community-based organizations (CBO) and community health workers (CHWs) fill care gaps by connecting CLS-involved individuals with essential re-entry services. The MOSAIC study will: 1) test an onsite CHW-led SARS-CoV-2 testing and education intervention in a reentry CBO and 2) model the cost-effectiveness of this intervention compared to standard care. METHODS: We will recruit 250 CLS-involved individuals who have left incarceration in the prior 90 days. Participants will be randomized to receive onsite Point-of-Care testing and education (O-PoC) or Standard of Care (SoC). Over one year, participants will complete quarterly questionnaires and biweekly short surveys through a mobile application, and be tested for SARS-CoV-2 quarterly, either at the CBO (O-PoC) or an offsite community testing site (SoC). O-PoC will also receive COVID-19 mitigation counseling and education from the CHW. Our primary outcome is the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 tests performed with results received by participants. Secondary outcomes include adherence to mitigation behaviors and cost-effectiveness of the intervention. DISCUSSION: The MOSAIC study will offer insight into cost effective strategies for SARS-CoV-2 testing and education for CLS-involved individuals. The study will also contribute to the growing literature on CHW's role in health education, supportive counseling, and building trust between patients and healthcare organizations.

Modelling the impact and cost-effectiveness of non-governmental organizations on HIV and HCV transmission among people who inject drugs in Ukraine.

INTRODUCTION: People who inject drugs (PWID) in Ukraine have high prevalences of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV). Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) provide PWID with needles/syringes, condoms, HIV/HCV testing and linkage to opioid agonist treatment (OAT) and antiretroviral therapy (ART). We estimated their impact and cost-effectiveness among PWID. METHODS: A dynamic HIV and HCV transmission model among PWID was calibrated using data from four national PWID surveys (2011-2017). The model assumed 37-49% coverage of NGOs among community PWID, with NGO contact reducing injecting risk and increasing condom use and recruitment onto OAT and ART. We estimated the historic (1997-2021) and future (2022-2030, compared to no NGO activities from 2022) impact of NGOs in terms of the proportion of HIV/HCV infections averted and changes in HIV/HCV incidence. We estimated the future impact of scaling-up NGOs to 80% coverage with/without scale-up in OAT (5-20%) and ART (64-81%). We estimated the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted of current NGO provision over 2022-2041 compared to NGO activities stopping over 2022-2026, but restarting after that till 2041. We assumed average unit costs of US$80-90 per person-year of NGO contact for PWID. RESULTS: With existing coverage levels of NGOs, the model projects that NGOs have averted 20.0% (95% credibility interval: 13.3-26.1) and 9.6% (5.1-14.1) of new HIV and HCV infections among PWID over 1997-2021, respectively, and will avert 31.8% (19.6-39.9) and 13.7% (7.5-18.1) of HIV and HCV infections over 2022-2030. With NGO scale-up, HIV and HCV incidence will decrease by 54.2% (43.3-63.8) and 30.2% (20.5-36.2) over 2022-2030, or 86.7% (82.9-89.3) and 39.8% (31.4-44.8) if OAT and ART are also scaled-up. Without NGOs, HIV and HCV incidence will increase by 51.6% (23.6-76.3) and 13.4% (4.8-21.9) over 2022-2030. Current NGO provision over 2022-2026 will avert 102,736 (77,611-137,512) DALYs when tracked until 2041 (discounted 3% annually), and cost US$912 (702-1222) per DALY averted; cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$1548/DALY averted (0.5xGDP). CONCLUSIONS: NGO activities have a crucial preventative impact among PWID in Ukraine which should be scaled-up to help achieve HIV and HCV elimination. Disruptions could have a substantial detrimental impact.