Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Disease Burden attributable to High Body Mass Index in Belt and Road Initiative Countries, 1990-2019.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of disease burden attributed to high body mass index (DB-hBMI) from 1990 to 2019 in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries, in light of increasing hBMI prevalence worldwide. DESIGN: The study was a secondary analysis of global burden of disease 2019 (GBD 2019) that analyzed (using Joinpoint regression analysis) numbers and the age-standardized rate of mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of hBMI-induced diseases and their trends from 1990 to 2019 and in the final decade. SETTING: GBD 2019 study data for BRI countries were categorized by country, age, gender, and disease. PARTICIPANTS: GBD 2019 data were used to analyze DB-hBMI in BRI countries. RESULTS: In 2019, China, India, and Russia reported the highest mortality and DALYs among BRI countries. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized DALYs increased in Southeast Asia and South Asia, whereas many European countries saw declines. Notably, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Vietnam showed the steepest increases, with AAPC values of 4.42%, 4.19%, and 4.28%, respectively (all P<0.05). In contrast, Israel, Slovenia, and Poland experienced significant reductions, with APCC values of -1.70%, -1.63%, and -1.58%, respectively (all P<0.05). The most rapid increases among males were seen in Vietnam, Nepal, and Bangladesh, while Jordan, Poland, and Slovenia recorded the fastest declines among females. Across most BRI countries, the burden of diabetes and kidney diseases related to hBMI showed a significant uptrend. CONCLUSION: DB-hBMI varies significantly by region, age, gender, and disease type across BRI countries. It can pose a substantial threat to public health.

CHD-related/specific mortality of 3.17 million people in a transitioning region: trends, risk factors, and prevention.

BACKGROUND: Demographic shifts cause uncertain changes in the burden of coronary heart disease (CHD) in transitioning regions. We aimed to analyze the trends of CHD burden and its risk factors in Pudong, Shanghai, and explore prevention strategies for transitioning regions. METHODS: We analyzed CHD-related and CHD-specific deaths in Pudong from 2005 to 2020, including the crude mortality rate (CMR), age-standardized mortality rate worldwide (ASMRW), years of life lost (YLL), and age-specific proportions. We also examined the impact of population aging on the burden of CHD. The Joinpoint Regression Program was used to analyze trends, and the decomposition method was used to evaluate the impact of demographics on the mortality rate. RESULTS: Of the 86,171 CHD-related deaths, 52,152 (60.52%) were CHD-specific deaths. For both CHD-related and CHD-specific deaths, there was a significant increase in the CMR, ASMRW, and YLL rate, except in the 70-79-year age group, which exhibited a distinctive and statistically significant decline in these rates (all P < 0.05). There were steadily increasing trends in the rates caused by aging from 2005 to 2020, with average annual percent changes (AAPCs) of 42.59% and 41.43%, respectively (all P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that the CHD burden in Pudong has been persistently increasing, but in the age group of 70-79 years, substantial declines were observed. The quality of primary healthcare services may be a critical point in addressing the overwhelming CHD burden.

Patterns and trends of mortality from metastatic colorectal cancer in Shanghai, China from 2005 to 2021: a population-based retrospective analysis.

PURPOSE: Metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) is the leading cause of CRC deaths, however, the relative epidemiological research was insufficient. We aimed to analyze the patterns and trends of mortality of mCRC in Shanghai with a more complete system for monitoring the cause of death of the population and find potential methods to reduce the burden of CRC in China. METHODS: Mortality data from 2005 to 2021 of mCRC deaths were obtained from the mortality registration system in Shanghai. We analyzed the crude mortality rates, age-standardized mortality rates, and rates of years of life lost (YLL rates) of mCRC. In addition, the trends were quantified using Joinpoint Regression software. RESULTS: A total of 4,386 mCRC deaths were included, with 1,937 (44.16%) liver metastases and 1,061 (24.19%) lung metastases. The crude mortality rate and age-standardized mortality rate of mCRC were 9.09 per 105 person-years and 3.78 per 105 person-years, respectively. The YLL was 50,533.13 years, and the YLL rate was 104.67 per 105 person-years. The overall annual crude mortality rate of mCRC increased by 1.47% (95% CI 0.28-2.68%, P < 0.001) from 2005 to 2021. The crude mortality rate of mCRC increased by 3.20% per year (95% CI 1.80-4.70%, P < 0.001) from 2005 to 2013, but the trend of mortality growth remained stable from 2013 to 2021. The YLL rates remained stable between 2005 and 2021. CONCLUSIONS: Population aging was the most likely factor responsible for the increase in CRC mortality in Pudong. Physical examinations and screenings for the elderly were possible reasons for reducing the burden of CRC in fast-growing regions.

Changing profiles of the burden of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias attributable to smoking in the belt and road initiative countries: A secondary analysis of global burden of disease 2019.

Objectives: This study was aimed at analyzing the burden and trend of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias attributed to smoking (SADD) in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries during 1990-2019. Methods: Data from The 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study was used to extract information on the burden of SADD in terms of the numbers and age-standardized rate of mortality (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years (ASDALR) in the BRI countries for 1990-2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was used to analyze the temporal trends of ASDALR from 1990 to 2019 and in the final decade by Joinpoint regression analysis. Results: The DALYs of SADD were the highest in China, India, and the Russian Federation in 1990 and in Lebanon, Montenegro and Bosnia, and Herzegovina in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the ASDALR in China had increased from 55.50/105 to 66.18/105, but decreased from 2010 to 2019, while that of India had declined from 32.84/105 to 29.35/105, but increased from 2010 to 2019. The ASDALR showed the fastest increase in the Russian Federation, with AAPC of 1.97% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.77%, 2.16%), and the fastest decline in Sri Lanka, with AAPC of -2.69% (95% CI: 2.79%, -2.59%). ASMR and ASDALR from SADD showed a substantial decline during 1990-2019 both globally and in the different socio-demographic index (SDI) regions (all P < 0.05, except for the high-middle-SDI region). Compared to the rates in males, the AAPC in ASDALR of females was significantly greater in 20 countries(all P < 0.05). In the age group of 20-54 years, the DALYs rate showed a decreasing trend only in 13 members in the low-SDI region (all P < 0.05). Conclusion: Under the premise of eliminating the differences, mobilizing resources in the country itself, the BRI organization, and globally will help reduce the global SADD burden and achieve healthy and sustainable development.

One-Hot Graph Encoder Embedding.

In this article we propose a lightning fast graph embedding method called one-hot graph encoder embedding. It has a linear computational complexity and the capacity to process billions of edges within minutes on standard PC - making it an ideal candidate for huge graph processing. It is applicable to either adjacency matrix or graph Laplacian, and can be viewed as a transformation of the spectral embedding. Under random graph models, the graph encoder embedding is approximately normally distributed per vertex, and asymptotically converges to its mean. We showcase three applications: vertex classification, vertex clustering, and graph bootstrap. In every case, the graph encoder embedding exhibits unrivalled computational advantages.

Patterns and Trends in Mortality Associated With and Due to Diabetes Mellitus in a Transitioning Region With 3.17 Million People: Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus (DM) imposes a significant disease burden in economically transitioning regions. Most transitioning regions share similar experience in urbanization processes. Shanghai's Pudong district serves as a representative area of such regions. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess the burden of and trends in DM mortality in Shanghai's Pudong district and analyze the impact of aging and multimorbidity. METHODS: A longitudinal, population-based study was conducted to analyze DM mortality in Pudong from 2005 to 2020. We used joinpoint regression to analyze epidemiological features and long-term trends in crude mortality rate (CMR), age-standardized mortality rate worldwide (ASMRW), and years of life lost (YLL). Furthermore, the decomposition method was used to evaluate the contribution of demographic and nondemographic factors associated with mortality. RESULTS: There were 49,414 deaths among individuals with DM, including 15,512 deaths due to DM. The CMR and ASMRW were 109.55/105 and 38.01/105 person-years, respectively. Among the mortality associated with and due to DM, the total annual ASMRW increased by 3.65% (95% CI 3.25%-4.06%) and 1.38% (95% CI 0.74%-2.02%), respectively. Additionally, the total annual YLL rate increased by 4.98% (95% CI 3.92%-6.05%) and 2.68% (95% CI 1.34%-4.04%). The rates of YLL increase in persons aged 30 to 44 years (3.98%, 95% CI 0.32%-7.78%) and 45 to 59 years (4.31%, 95% CI 2.95%-5.69%) were followed by the increase in persons aged 80 years and older (10.53%, 95% CI 9.45%-11.62%) for deaths associated with DM. The annual CMR attributable to demographic factors increased by 41.9% (95% CI 17.73%-71.04%) and 36.72% (95% CI 16.69%-60.2%) for deaths associated with and due to DM, respectively. Hypertension, cerebrovascular disease, and ischemic heart disease were the top 3 comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: Aging and multimorbidity played essential roles in changing the burden of DM in an urbanizing and transitioning region. There is an increasing disease burden among young and middle-aged people, emphasizing the need for greater attention to these groups. Health management is an emerging method that holds important implications for alleviating the future burden of DM.

Family-level factors of early childhood development: Evidence from rural China.

Family-level factors that characterize the home environment are critical inputs to early language and cognitive development, and potential mechanisms for improving developmental outcomes in vulnerable populations. Many studies conducted in high-income and Western settings highlight stimulating parenting, the home language environment, and parental self-efficacy as possible mechanisms of early development, though less is known about how these family-level factors impact child development in low- or middle-income settings. Even less is known about these family-level factors and early childhood development in rural China, where rates of cognitive and language delay in children aged 0-3 years are as high as 45% and 46%, respectively. Using data collected from 77 rural households with children aged 18-24 months in Southwestern China, this study examines the associations between stimulating parenting, the home language environment, and parental self-efficacy, and early cognitive and language development. The results indicate that stimulating parenting was significantly associated with cognitive, language, and overall development; the home language environment was only significantly associated with language development; and parental self-efficacy was not significantly associated with any developmental outcomes. The implications of such findings reveal mechanisms for supporting healthy child development in rural China.

Diversities of disability caused by lung cancer in the 66 Belt and Road initiative countries: a secondary analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Objectives: Due to the increase in life expectancy and the aging of the global population, the "Belt and Road" ("B&R") countries are faced with varying degrees of lung cancer threat. The purpose of this study is to analyze the differences in the burden and trend of lung cancer disability in the "B&R" countries from 1990 to 2019 so as to provide an analytical strategic basis to build a healthy "B&R". Methods: Data were derived from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD 2019). Incidence, mortality, prevalence, the years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of lung cancer and those attributable to different risk factors were measured from 1990 to 2019. Trends of disease burden were estimated by using the average annual percent change (AAPC), and the 95% uncertainty interval (UI) was reported. Results: China, India, and the Russian Federation were the three countries with the highest burden of lung cancer in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the AAPC of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs generally showed a downward trend in Central Asia (except Georgia) and Eastern Europe, while in China, South Asia (except Bangladesh), most countries in North Africa, and the Middle East, the trend was mainly upward. The AAPC of age-standardized incidence was 1.33% (1.15%-1.50%); the AAPC of prevalence, mortality, and DALYs from lung cancer in China increased by 24% (2.10%-2.38%), 0.94% (0.74%-1.14%), and 0.42% (0.25%-0.59%), respectively. A downward trend of the AAPC values of age-standardized YLD rate in men was shown in the vast majority of "B&R" countries, but for women, most countries had an upward trend. For adults aged 75 years or older, the age-standardized YLD rate showed an increasing trend in most of the "B&R" countries. Except for the DALY rate of lung cancer attributable to metabolic risks, a downward trend of the DALY rate attributable to all risk factors, behavioral risks, and environmental/occupational risks was shown in the vast majority of "B&R" countries. Conclusion: The burden of lung cancer in "B&R" countries varied significantly between regions, genders, and risk factors. Strengthening health cooperation among the "B&R" countries will help to jointly build a community with a shared future for mankind.

A Predictive Model Based on a New CI-AKI Definition to Predict Contrast Induced Nephropathy in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease With Relatively Normal Renal Function.

Background: Contrast induced nephropathy (CIN) is a common complication in patients receiving intravascular contrast media. In 2020, the American College of Radiology and the National Kidney Foundation issued a new contrast induced acute kidney injury (CI-AKI) criteria. Therefore, we aimed to explore the potential risk factors for CIN under the new criteria, and develop a predictive model for patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) with relatively normal renal function (NRF). Methods: Patients undergoing coronary angiography or percutaneous coronary intervention at Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University between May 2019 and April 2020 were consecutively enrolled. Eligible candidates were selected for statistical analysis. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify the predictive factors. A stepwise method and a machine learning (ML) method were used to construct a model based on the Akaike information criterion. The performance of our model was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and calibration curves. The model was further simplified into a risk score. Results: A total of 2,009 patients with complete information were included in the final statistical analysis. The results showed that the incidence of CIN was 3.2 and 1.2% under the old and new criteria, respectively. Three independent predictors were identified: baseline uric acid level, creatine kinase-MB level, and log (N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide) level. Our stepwise model had an AUC of 0.816, which was higher than that of the ML model (AUC = 0.668, P = 0.09). The model also achieved accurate predictions regarding calibration. A risk score was then developed, and patients were divided into two risk groups: low risk (total score < 10) and high risk (total score ≥ 10). Conclusions: In this study, we first identified important predictors of CIN in patients with CAD with NRF. We then developed the first CI-AKI model on the basis of the new criteria, which exhibited accurate predictive performance. The simplified risk score may be useful in clinical practice to identify high-risk patients.