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1.
Cancer ; 130(4): 563-575, 2024 02 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37994148

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with a range of health outcomes, including cancer diagnosis and survival. However, the evidence for this association is inconsistent between countries with and without single-payer health care systems. In this study, the relationships between neighborhood-level income, cancer stage at diagnosis, and cancer-specific mortality in Alberta, Canada, were evaluated. METHODS: The Alberta Cancer Registry was used to identify all primary cancer diagnoses between 2010 and 2020. Average neighborhood income was determined by linking the Canadian census to postal codes and was categorized into quintiles on the basis of income distribution in Alberta. Multivariable multinomial logistic regression was used to model the association between income quintile and stage at diagnosis, and the Fine-Gray proportional subdistribution hazards model was used to estimate the association between SES and cancer-specific mortality. RESULTS: Out of the 143,818 patients with cancer included in the study, those in lower income quintiles were significantly more likely to be diagnosed at stage III (odds ratio [OR], 1.07; 95% CI [confidence interval], 1.06-1.09) or IV (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.11-1.14) after adjusting for age and sex. Lower income quintiles also had significantly worse cancer-specific survival for breast, colorectal, liver, lung, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, oral cavity, pancreas, and prostate cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Disparities were observed in cancer outcomes across neighborhood-level income groups in Alberta, which demonstrates that health inequities by SES exist in countries with single-payer health care systems. Further research is needed to better understand the underlying causes and to develop strategies to mitigate these disparities.


Assuntos
Renda , Neoplasias da Próstata , Humanos , Masculino , Alberta/epidemiologia , Estadiamento de Neoplasias , Classe Social , Fatores Socioeconômicos
2.
Thorax ; 79(4): 307-315, 2024 Mar 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38195644

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Low-dose CT screening can reduce lung cancer-related mortality. However, most screen-detected pulmonary abnormalities do not develop into cancer and it often remains challenging to identify malignant nodules, particularly among indeterminate nodules. We aimed to develop and assess prediction models based on radiological features to discriminate between benign and malignant pulmonary lesions detected on a baseline screen. METHODS: Using four international lung cancer screening studies, we extracted 2060 radiomic features for each of 16 797 nodules (513 malignant) among 6865 participants. After filtering out low-quality radiomic features, 642 radiomic and 9 epidemiological features remained for model development. We used cross-validation and grid search to assess three machine learning (ML) models (eXtreme Gradient Boosted Trees, random forest, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)) for their ability to accurately predict risk of malignancy for pulmonary nodules. We report model performance based on the area under the curve (AUC) and calibration metrics in the held-out test set. RESULTS: The LASSO model yielded the best predictive performance in cross-validation and was fit in the full training set based on optimised hyperparameters. Our radiomics model had a test-set AUC of 0.93 (95% CI 0.90 to 0.96) and outperformed the established Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer model (AUC 0.87, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.89) for nodule assessment. Our model performed well among both solid (AUC 0.93, 95% CI 0.89 to 0.97) and subsolid nodules (AUC 0.91, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.95). CONCLUSIONS: We developed highly accurate ML models based on radiomic and epidemiological features from four international lung cancer screening studies that may be suitable for assessing indeterminate screen-detected pulmonary nodules for risk of malignancy.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Pulmonares , Nódulos Pulmonares Múltiplos , Humanos , Neoplasias Pulmonares/diagnóstico , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Radiômica , Tomografia Computadorizada por Raios X , Canadá , Nódulos Pulmonares Múltiplos/patologia , Aprendizado de Máquina , Estudos Retrospectivos
3.
Cancer Control ; 31: 10732748241241158, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38516742

RESUMO

Background: Western populations are losing the battle over healthy weight management, and excess body weight is a notable cancer risk factor at the population level. There is ongoing interest in pharmacological interventions aimed at promoting weight loss, including GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA), which may be a useful tool to stem the rising tide of obesity-related cancers. Purpose: To investigate the potential of next generation weight loss drugs (NGWLD) like GLP-1RA in population-level chemoprevention.Research Design: We used the OncoSim microsimulation tool to estimate the population-level reductions in obesity and the potentially avoidable obesity-related cancers in Canada over the next 25 years.Results: We estimated a total of 71 281 preventable cancers by 2049, with 36 235 and 35 046 cancers prevented for females and males, respectively. Among the 327 254 total projected cancer cases in 2049, 1.3% are estimated to be preventable through intervention with NGWLD.Conclusions: Pharmacologic intervention is not the ideal solution for the obesity-related cancer crisis. However, these agents and subsequent generations provide an additional tool to rapidly reduce body weight and adiposity in populations that have been extremely challenging to reduce weight with standard diet and exercise approaches. Additional research is needed around approaches to prevent initial weight gain and maintain long-term weight loss.


Assuntos
Fármacos Antiobesidade , Neoplasias , Masculino , Feminino , Humanos , Fármacos Antiobesidade/uso terapêutico , Obesidade/complicações , Obesidade/epidemiologia , Fatores de Risco , Neoplasias/epidemiologia , Neoplasias/prevenção & controle , Redução de Peso
5.
Acta Crystallogr D Biol Crystallogr ; 70(Pt 11): 2890-6, 2014 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25372680

RESUMO

All evidence to date indicates that at T = 100 K all protein crystals exhibit comparable sensitivity to X-ray damage when quantified using global metrics such as change in scaling B factor or integrated intensity versus dose. This is consistent with observations in cryo-electron microscopy, and results because nearly all diffusive motions of protein and solvent, including motions induced by radiation damage, are frozen out. But how do the sensitivities of different proteins compare at room temperature, where radiation-induced radicals are free to diffuse and protein and lattice structures are free to relax in response to local damage? It might be expected that a large complex with extensive conformational degrees of freedom would be more radiation sensitive than a small, compact globular protein. As a test case, the radiation sensitivity of 70S ribosome crystals has been examined. At T = 100 and 300 K, the half doses are 64 MGy (at 3 Šresolution) and 150 kGy (at 5 Šresolution), respectively. The maximum tolerable dose in a crystallography experiment depends upon the initial or desired resolution. When differences in initial data-set resolution are accounted for, the former half dose is roughly consistent with that for model proteins, and the 100/300 K half-dose ratio is roughly a factor of ten larger. 70S ribosome crystals exhibit substantially increased resolution at 100 K relative to 300 K owing to cooling-induced ordering and not to reduced radiation sensitivity and slower radiation damage.


Assuntos
Ribossomos/efeitos da radiação , Thermus thermophilus/efeitos da radiação , Cristalização , Cristalografia por Raios X , Tolerância a Radiação , Temperatura , Raios X
6.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 5688, 2024 03 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38454087

RESUMO

In Canada, the absolute number of cancer deaths has been steadily increasing, however, age-standardized cancer mortality rates peaked decades ago for most cancers. The objective of this study was to estimate the reduction in deaths for each cancer type under the scenario where peak mortality rates had remained stable in Canada. Data for this study were obtained the Global Cancer Observatory and Statistics Canada. We estimated age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR, per 100,000) from 1950 to 2022, standardized to the 2011 Canadian standard population. We identified peak mortality rates and applied the age-specific mortality rates from the peak year to the age-specific Canadian population estimates for subsequent years (up to 2022) to estimate the number of expected deaths. Avoided cancer deaths were the difference between the observed and expected number of cancer deaths. There have been major reductions in deaths among cancers related to tobacco consumption and other modifiable lifestyle habits (417,561 stomach; 218,244 colorectal; 186,553 lung; 66,281 cervix; 32,732 head and neck; 27,713 bladder; 22,464 leukemia; 20,428 pancreas; 8863 kidney; 3876 esophagus; 290 liver). There have been 201,979 deaths avoided for female-specific cancers (breast, cervix, ovary, uterus). Overall, there has been a 34% reduction in mortality for lung cancer among males and a 9% reduction among females. There has been a significant reduction in cancer mortality in Canada since site-specific cancer mortality rates peaked decades ago for many cancers. This shows the exceptional progress made in cancer control in Canada due to substantial improvements in prevention, screening, and treatment. This study highlights priority areas where more attention and investment are needed to achieve progress.


Assuntos
Leucemia , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Neoplasias , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Canadá/epidemiologia , Mama , Estilo de Vida , Mortalidade , Incidência
7.
Biophys J ; 104(1): 227-36, 2013 Jan 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23332075

RESUMO

Small angle x-ray scattering (SAXS) is a versatile and widely used technique for obtaining low-resolution structures of macromolecules and complexes. SAXS experiments measure molecules in solution, without the need for labeling or crystallization. However, radiation damage currently limits the application of SAXS to molecules that can be produced in microgram quantities; for typical proteins, 10-20 µL of solution at 1 mg/mL is required to accumulate adequate signal before irreversible x-ray damage is observed. Here, we show that cryocooled proteins and nucleic acids can withstand doses at least two orders of magnitude larger than room temperature samples. We demonstrate accurate T = 100 K particle envelope reconstructions from sample volumes as small as 15 nL, a factor of 1000 smaller than in current practice. Cryo-SAXS will thus enable structure determination of difficult-to-express proteins and biologically important, highly radiation-sensitive proteins including light-activated switches and metalloenzymes.


Assuntos
Temperatura Baixa , Espalhamento a Baixo Ângulo , Difração de Raios X , Aldose-Cetose Isomerases/química , Animais , Soluções Tampão , Galinhas , Crioprotetores/farmacologia , Relação Dose-Resposta à Radiação , Polietilenoglicóis/química , Soluções , Vitrificação/efeitos dos fármacos
8.
J Synchrotron Radiat ; 20(Pt 1): 7-13, 2013 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23254651

RESUMO

A series of studies that provide a consistent and illuminating picture of global radiation damage to protein crystals, especially at temperatures above ∼200 K, are described. The radiation sensitivity shows a transition near 200 K, above which it appears to be limited by solvent-coupled diffusive processes. Consistent with this interpretation, a component of global damage proceeds on timescales of several minutes at 180 K, decreasing to seconds near room temperature. As a result, data collection times of order 1 s allow up to half of global damage to be outrun at 260 K. Much larger damage reductions near room temperature should be feasible using larger dose rates delivered using microfocused beams, enabling a significant expansion of structural studies of proteins under more nearly native conditions.


Assuntos
Proteínas/efeitos da radiação , Cristalização , Cristalografia por Raios X , Radiação Eletromagnética , Proteínas de Plantas/efeitos da radiação , Proteínas/química , Temperatura , Fatores de Tempo
9.
Phys Rev Lett ; 110(1): 015703, 2013 Jan 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23383808

RESUMO

When pure water is cooled at ~10(6) K / s, it forms an amorphous solid (glass) instead of the more familiar crystalline phase. The presence of solutes can reduce this required (or "critical") cooling rate by orders of magnitude. Here, we present critical cooling rates for a variety of solutes as a function of concentration and a theoretical framework for understanding these rates. For all solutes tested, the critical cooling rate is an exponential function of concentration. The exponential's characteristic concentration for each solute correlates with the solute's Stokes radius. A modification of critical droplet theory relates the characteristic concentration to the solute radius and the critical nucleation radius of ice in pure water. This simple theory of ice nucleation and glass formability in aqueous solutions has consequences for general glass-forming systems, and in cryobiology, cloud physics, and climate modeling.

10.
Cancer Epidemiol ; 84: 102368, 2023 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37087927

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Several randomized trials demonstrated have reduced lung cancer mortality with screening using computed tomography. However, there remains debate about the optimal approach for determining screening eligibility, and no evidence yet exists reporting lung cancer rates in those excluded from screening due to too low of a personalized risk. METHODS: This study was based on the Alberta Lung Cancer Screening Study, which received 1737 applicants and enrolled 850 based on the NLST criteria or a PLCOM2012 risk ≥ 1.5%. We excluded 887 applicants who were interested in screening but deemed ineligible. We report lung cancer rates in the screened and unscreened cohorts. RESULTS: We observed 30 and 8 lung cancers in the screened and unscreened groups, respectively. Only 1 of 8 lung cancers were among those considered too low risk (0.14%), while the remaining 7 were among those excluded for other reasons, including symptoms requiring more immediate workup. No NLST eligible but PLCO risk < 1.5% screened individual had a lung cancer detected as part of the study, so that of all applicants contacting the program with risk estimates less than 1.5%, only 1/857 (0.12%) developed lung cancer. CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that a risk-based approach for screening eligibility is unlikely to miss many lung cancers.


Assuntos
Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Humanos , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/métodos , Neoplasias Pulmonares/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Pulmonares/epidemiologia , Tomografia Computadorizada por Raios X/métodos , Probabilidade , Alberta , Programas de Rastreamento/métodos
11.
JNCI Cancer Spectr ; 7(6)2023 10 31.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38085245

RESUMO

It is currently not known how many more cancer deaths would have occurred among Canadians if cancer mortality rates were unchanged following various modern human interventions. The objective of this study was to estimate the number of cancer deaths that have been avoided in Canada since the age-standardized overall cancer mortality rate peaked in 1988. We applied the age-specific overall cancer mortality rates from 1988 to the Canadian population for all subsequent years to estimate the number of expected deaths. Avoided cancer deaths were estimated as the difference between the observed and expected number of cancer deaths for each year. Since 1988, there have been 372 584 (standardized mortality ratio = 0.77) and 120 045 (standardized mortality ratio = 0.90) avoided cancer deaths in males and females, respectively (492 629 total). Nearly half a million cancer deaths have been avoided in Canada since the overall cancer mortality rate peaked, which demonstrates the exceptional progress made in modern cancer control in Canada.


Assuntos
Neoplasias , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Canadá/epidemiologia , Neoplasias/mortalidade , Neoplasias/prevenção & controle
12.
JCO Clin Cancer Inform ; 7: e2200153, 2023 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36930839

RESUMO

PURPOSE: Lung cancer screening programs generate a high volume of low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) reports that contain valuable information, typically in a free-text format. High-performance named-entity recognition (NER) models can extract relevant information from these reports automatically for inter-radiologist quality control. METHODS: Using LDCT report data from a longitudinal lung cancer screening program (8,305 reports; 3,124 participants; 2006-2019), we trained a rule-based model and two bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) NER neural network models to detect clinically relevant information from LDCT reports. Model performance was tested using F1 scores and compared with a published open-source radiology NER model (Stanza) in an independent evaluation set of 150 reports. The top performing model was applied to a data set of 6,948 reports for an inter-radiologist quality control assessment. RESULTS: The best performing model, a Bi-LSTM NER recurrent neural network model, had an overall F1 score of 0.950, which outperformed Stanza (F1 score = 0.872) and a rule-based NER model (F1 score = 0.809). Recall (sensitivity) for the best Bi-LSTM model ranged from 0.916 to 0.991 for different entity types; precision (positive predictive value) ranged from 0.892 to 0.997. Test performance remained stable across time periods. There was an average of a 2.86-fold difference in the number of identified entities between the most and the least detailed radiologists. CONCLUSION: We built an open-source Bi-LSTM NER model that outperformed other open-source or rule-based radiology NER models. This model can efficiently extract clinically relevant information from lung cancer screening computerized tomography reports with high accuracy, enabling efficient audit and feedback to improve quality of patient care.


Assuntos
Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Humanos , Retroalimentação , Melhoria de Qualidade , Neoplasias Pulmonares/diagnóstico por imagem , Redes Neurais de Computação , Tomografia Computadorizada por Raios X , Radiologistas
13.
J Natl Cancer Inst ; 115(9): 1060-1070, 2023 09 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37369027

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Although lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography is rolling out in many areas of the world, differentiating indeterminate pulmonary nodules remains a major challenge. We conducted one of the first systematic investigations of circulating protein markers to differentiate malignant from benign screen-detected pulmonary nodules. METHODS: Based on 4 international low-dose computed tomography screening studies, we assayed 1078 protein markers using prediagnostic blood samples from 1253 participants based on a nested case-control design. Protein markers were measured using proximity extension assays, and data were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression, random forest, and penalized regressions. Protein burden scores (PBSs) for overall nodule malignancy and imminent tumors were estimated. RESULTS: We identified 36 potentially informative circulating protein markers differentiating malignant from benign nodules, representing a tightly connected biological network. Ten markers were found to be particularly relevant for imminent lung cancer diagnoses within 1 year. Increases in PBSs for overall nodule malignancy and imminent tumors by 1 standard deviation were associated with odds ratios of 2.29 (95% confidence interval: 1.95 to 2.72) and 2.81 (95% confidence interval: 2.27 to 3.54) for nodule malignancy overall and within 1 year of diagnosis, respectively. Both PBSs for overall nodule malignancy and for imminent tumors were substantially higher for those with malignant nodules than for those with benign nodules, even when limited to Lung Computed Tomography Screening Reporting and Data System (LungRADS) category 4 (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Circulating protein markers can help differentiate malignant from benign pulmonary nodules. Validation with an independent computed tomographic screening study will be required before clinical implementation.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Pulmonares , Nódulos Pulmonares Múltiplos , Nódulo Pulmonar Solitário , Humanos , Neoplasias Pulmonares/diagnóstico por imagem , Proteoma , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Nódulo Pulmonar Solitário/diagnóstico por imagem , Nódulo Pulmonar Solitário/patologia , Pulmão/patologia , Nódulos Pulmonares Múltiplos/diagnóstico por imagem , Nódulos Pulmonares Múltiplos/patologia
14.
Ann Epidemiol ; 77: 1-12, 2023 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36404465

RESUMO

The Integrative Analysis of Lung Cancer Etiology and Risk (INTEGRAL) program is an NCI-funded initiative with an objective to develop tools to optimize low-dose CT (LDCT) lung cancer screening. Here, we describe the rationale and design for the Risk Biomarker and Nodule Malignancy projects within INTEGRAL. The overarching goal of these projects is to systematically investigate circulating protein markers to include on a panel for use (i) pre-LDCT, to identify people likely to benefit from screening, and (ii) post-LDCT, to differentiate benign versus malignant nodules. To identify informative proteins, the Risk Biomarker project measured 1161 proteins in a nested-case control study within 2 prospective cohorts (n = 252 lung cancer cases and 252 controls) and replicated associations for a subset of proteins in 4 cohorts (n = 479 cases and 479 controls). Eligible participants had a current or former history of smoking and cases were diagnosed up to 3 years following blood draw. The Nodule Malignancy project measured 1078 proteins among participants with a heavy smoking history within four LDCT screening studies (n = 425 cases diagnosed up to 5 years following blood draw, 430 benign-nodule controls, and 398 nodule-free controls). The INTEGRAL panel will enable absolute quantification of 21 proteins. We will evaluate its performance in the Risk Biomarker project using a case-cohort study including 14 cohorts (n = 1696 cases and 2926 subcohort representatives), and in the Nodule Malignancy project within five LDCT screening studies (n = 675 cases, 680 benign-nodule controls, and 648 nodule-free controls). Future progress to advance lung cancer early detection biomarkers will require carefully designed validation, translational, and comparative studies.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Pulmonares , Humanos , Neoplasias Pulmonares/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Pulmonares/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Pulmonares/etiologia , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Estudos de Coortes , Estudos Prospectivos , Tomografia Computadorizada por Raios X , Pulmão , Biomarcadores
15.
Acta Crystallogr D Biol Crystallogr ; 68(Pt 9): 1108-17, 2012 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22948911

RESUMO

The spatial distribution of radiation damage (assayed by increases in atomic B factors) to thaumatin and urease crystals at temperatures ranging from 25 to 300 K is reported. The nature of the damage changes dramatically at approximately 180 K. Above this temperature the role of solvent diffusion is apparent in thaumatin crystals, as solvent-exposed turns and loops are especially sensitive. In urease, a flap covering the active site is the most sensitive part of the molecule and nearby loops show enhanced sensitivity. Below 180 K sensitivity is correlated with poor local packing, especially in thaumatin. At all temperatures, the component of the damage that is spatially uniform within the unit cell accounts for more than half of the total increase in the atomic B factors and correlates with changes in mosaicity. This component may arise from lattice-level, rather than local, disorder. The effects of primary structure on radiation sensitivity are small compared with those of tertiary structure, local packing, solvent accessibility and crystal contacts.


Assuntos
Cristalografia por Raios X/métodos , Urease/análise , Enterobacter aerogenes/enzimologia , Modelos Moleculares , Estrutura Quaternária de Proteína , Estrutura Terciária de Proteína , Temperatura , Urease/química
16.
Acta Crystallogr D Biol Crystallogr ; 68(Pt 2): 124-33, 2012 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22281741

RESUMO

Global radiation damage to 19 thaumatin crystals has been measured using dose rates from 3 to 680 kGy s⁻¹. At room temperature damage per unit dose appears to be roughly independent of dose rate, suggesting that the timescales for important damage processes are less than ∼1 s. However, at T = 260 K approximately half of the global damage manifested at dose rates of ∼10 kGy s⁻¹ can be outrun by collecting data at 680 kGy s⁻¹. Appreciable sample-to-sample variability in global radiation sensitivity at fixed dose rate is observed. This variability cannot be accounted for by errors in dose calculation, crystal slippage or the size of the data sets in the assay.


Assuntos
Proteínas de Plantas/química , Plantas/química , Cristalização , Cristalografia por Raios X , Doses de Radiação , Raios X
17.
Cryobiology ; 65(3): 169-78, 2012 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22728046

RESUMO

Ice formation on warming is of comparable or greater importance to ice formation on cooling in determining survival of cryopreserved samples. Critical warming rates required for ice-free warming of vitrified aqueous solutions of glycerol, dimethyl sulfoxide, ethylene glycol, polyethylene glycol 200 and sucrose have been measured for warming rates of order 10-104 K/s. Critical warming rates are typically one to three orders of magnitude larger than critical cooling rates. Warming rates vary strongly with cooling rates, perhaps due to the presence of small ice fractions in nominally vitrified samples. Critical warming and cooling rate data spanning orders of magnitude in rates provide rigorous tests of ice nucleation and growth models and their assumed input parameters. Current models with current best estimates for input parameters provide a reasonable account of critical warming rates for glycerol solutions at high concentrations/low rates, but overestimate both critical warming and cooling rates by orders of magnitude at lower concentrations and larger rates. In vitrification protocols, minimizing concentrations of potentially damaging cryoprotectants while minimizing ice formation will require ultrafast warming rates, as well as fast cooling rates to minimize the required warming rates.


Assuntos
Crioprotetores/química , Gelo/análise , Água/química , Criopreservação , Dimetil Sulfóxido/química , Etilenoglicol/química , Congelamento , Glicerol/química , Calefação , Polietilenoglicóis/química , Vitrificação
18.
J Natl Cancer Inst ; 114(12): 1665-1673, 2022 12 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36083018

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer mortality globally. Early detection through risk-based screening can markedly improve prognosis. However, most risk models were developed in North American cohorts of smokers, whereas less is known about risk profiles for never-smokers, which represent a growing proportion of lung cancers, particularly in Asian populations. METHODS: Based on the China Kadoorie Biobank, a population-based prospective cohort of 512 639 adults with up to 12 years of follow-up, we built Asian Lung Cancer Absolute Risk Models (ALARM) for lung cancer mortality using flexible parametric survival models, separately for never and ever-smokers, accounting for competing risks of mortality. Model performance was evaluated in a 25% hold-out test set using the time-dependent area under the curve and by comparing model-predicted and observed risks for calibration. RESULTS: Predictors assessed in the never-smoker lung cancer mortality model were demographics, body mass index, lung function, history of emphysema or bronchitis, personal or family history of cancer, passive smoking, and indoor air pollution. The ever-smoker model additionally assessed smoking history. The 5-year areas under the curve in the test set were 0.77 (95% confidence interval = 0.73 to 0.80) and 0.81 (95% confidence interval = 0.79 to 0.84) for ALARM-never-smokers and ALARM-ever smokers, respectively. The maximum 5-year risk for never and ever-smokers was 2.6% and 12.7%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study is among the first to develop risk models specifically for Asian populations separately for never and ever-smokers. Our models accurately identify Asians at high risk of lung cancer death and may identify those with risks exceeding common eligibility thresholds who may benefit from screening.


Assuntos
Bancos de Espécimes Biológicos , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Adulto , Humanos , Estudos Prospectivos , Fumar/efeitos adversos , Fumar/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Pulmonares/epidemiologia , Pulmão , Fatores de Risco
19.
Eur Urol Open Sci ; 37: 14-26, 2022 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35128482

RESUMO

CONTEXT: Considerable advances have been made in the first-line treatment of metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC), with immunotherapy-based combinations including immunotherapy-tyrosine kinase inhibitors (IO-TKIs) and dual immunotherapy (IO-IO) favored. A lack of head-to-head clinical trials comparing these treatments means that there is uncertainty regarding their use in clinical practice. OBJECTIVE: To compare and rank the efficacy and safety of first-line systemic treatments for mRCC with a focus on IO-based combinations. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and abstracts of recent major scientific meetings were searched to identify the most up-to-date phase 3 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of first-line IO-based combinations for mRCC up to June 2021. A systematic review and network meta-analysis were completed using the Bayesian framework. Primary endpoints included overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). Secondary endpoints included the objective response rate (ORR), complete response (CR), grade 3-4 treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs), treatment-related drug discontinuation (TRDD), and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). The analysis was performed for the intention-to-treat (ITT) population as well as by clinical risk group. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: A total of six phase 3 RCTs were included involving a total of 5121 patients. Nivolumab plus cabozantinib (NIVO-CABO) had the highest likelihood of an OS benefit in the ITT population (surface under the cumulative ranking curve 82%). Avelumab plus axitinib (AVEL-AXI) had the highest likelihood of an OS benefit for patients with favorable risk (65%). Pembrolizumab plus AXI (PEMBRO-AXI) had the highest likelihood of an OS benefit for patients with intermediate risk (78%). PEMBRO plus lenvatinib (PEMBRO-LENV) had the highest likelihood of an OS benefit for patients with poor risk (89%). PEMBRO-LENV was associated with a superior PFS benefit across all risk groups (89-98%). Maximal ORR was achieved with PEMBRO-LENV (97%). The highest likelihood for CR was attained with NIVO plus ipilimumab (NIVO-IPI; 85%) and PEMBRO-LENV (83%). The highest grade 3-4 TRAE rate occurred with PEMBRO-LENV (95%) and NIVO-CABO (83%), but the latter was associated with the lowest TRDD rate (2%). By contrast, NIVO-IPI had the lowest grade 3-4 TRAE rate (6%) and the highest likelihood of TRDD (100%). HRQoL consistently favored NIVO-CABO (66-75%), PEMBRO-LENV (44-85%), and NIVO-IPI (65-93%) in comparison to the other treatments. CONCLUSIONS: IO-TKI drug combinations are associated with consistent improvements in clinically relevant outcomes for all mRCC risk groups. This benefit may be at the cost of higher TRAE rates; however, lower TRDD rates suggest a manageable side-effect profile. Longer follow-up is required to determine if the benefits of IO-TKIs will be sustained and if they should be favored in the first-line treatment of mRCC. PATIENT SUMMARY: Combination treatments based on immunotherapy agents continue to show meaningful benefits in the first-line treatment of metastatic kidney cancer. Our review and network meta-analysis shows that immunotherapy combined with another class of agents called tyrosine kinase inhibitors is promising. However, longer follow-up is needed for this treatment strategy to clarify if the benefits are long-lasting.

20.
J Hosp Med ; 17(10): 793-802, 2022 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36040111

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: There is wide variation in mortality among patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Whether this is related to patient or hospital factors is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To compare the risk of mortality for patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and to determine whether the majority of that variation was explained by differences in patient characteristics across sites. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: An international multicenter cohort study of hospitalized adults with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 enrolled from 10 hospitals in Ontario, Canada and 8 hospitals in Copenhagen, Denmark between January 1, 2020 and November 11, 2020. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Inpatient mortality. We used a multivariable multilevel regression model to compare the in-hospital mortality risk across hospitals and quantify the variation attributable to patient-level factors. RESULTS: There were 1364 adults hospitalized with COVID-19 in Ontario (n = 1149) and in Denmark (n = 215). In Ontario, the absolute risk of in-hospital mortality ranged from 12.0% to 39.8% across hospitals. Ninety-eight percent of the variation in mortality in Ontario was explained by differences in the characteristics of the patients. In Denmark, the absolute risk of inpatients ranged from 13.8% to 20.6%. One hundred percent of the variation in mortality in Denmark was explained by differences in the characteristics of the inpatients. CONCLUSION: There was wide variation in inpatient COVID-19 mortality across hospitals, which was largely explained by patient-level factors, such as age and severity of presenting illness. However, hospital-level factors that could have affected care, including resource availability and capacity, were not taken into account. These findings highlight potential limitations in comparing crude mortality rates across hospitals for the purposes of reporting on the quality of care.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Adulto , Estudos de Coortes , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Hospitalização , Humanos , Ontário/epidemiologia
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