Novel methods for estimating the instantaneous and overall COVID-19 case fatality risk among care home residents in England.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had high mortality rates in the elderly and frail worldwide, particularly in care homes. This is driven by the difficulty of isolating care homes from the wider community, the large population sizes within care facilities (relative to typical households), and the age/frailty of the residents. To quantify the mortality risk posed by disease, the case fatality risk (CFR) is an important tool. This quantifies the proportion of cases that result in death. Throughout the pandemic, CFR amongst care home residents in England has been monitored closely. To estimate CFR, we apply both novel and existing methods to data on deaths in care homes, collected by Public Health England and the Care Quality Commission. We compare these different methods, evaluating their relative strengths and weaknesses. Using these methods, we estimate temporal trends in the instantaneous CFR (at both daily and weekly resolutions) and the overall CFR across the whole of England, and dis-aggregated at regional level. We also investigate how the CFR varies based on age and on the type of care required, dis-aggregating by whether care homes include nursing staff and by age of residents. This work has contributed to the summary of measures used for monitoring the UK epidemic.

ACPSEM position paper: pre-treatment patient specific plan checks and quality assurance in radiation oncology.

The Australasian College of Physical Scientists and Engineers in Medicine (ACPSEM) has not previously made recommendations outlining the requirements for physics plan checks in Australia and New Zealand. A recent workforce modelling exercise, undertaken by the ACPSEM, revealed that the workload of a clinical radiation oncology medical physicist can comprise of up to 50% patient specific quality assurance activities. Therefore, in 2022 the ACPSEM Radiation Oncology Specialty Group (ROSG) set up a working group to address this issue. This position paper authored by ROSG endorses the recommendations of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) Task Group 218, 219 and 275 reports with some contextualisation for the Australia and New Zealand settings. A few recommendations from other sources are also endorsed to complete the position.

Outbreaks in care homes may lead to substantial disease burden if not mitigated.

The number of COVID-19 outbreaks reported in UK care homes rose rapidly in early March of 2020. Owing to the increased co-morbidities and therefore worse COVID-19 outcomes for care home residents, it is important that we understand this increase and its future implications. We demonstrate the use of an SIS model where each nursing home is an infective unit capable of either being susceptible to an outbreak (S) or in an active outbreak (I). We use a generalized additive model to approximate the trend in growth rate of outbreaks in care homes and find the fit to be improved in a model where the growth rate is proportional to the number of current care home outbreaks compared with a model with a constant growth rate. Using parameters found from the outbreak-dependent growth rate, we predict a 73% prevalence of outbreaks in UK care homes without intervention as a reasonable worst-case planning assumption. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.

Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks: COVID-19 as an example.

During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated by the ongoing response to COVID-19, we provide a toolkit of statistical and mathematical models beyond the simple SIR-type differential equation models for analysing the early stages of an outbreak and assessing interventions. In particular, we focus on parameter estimation in the presence of known biases in the data, and the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions in enclosed subpopulations, such as households and care homes. We illustrate these methods by applying them to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Solar urticaria.

A case of solar urticaria is presented, followed by a discussion of the clinical characteristics, pathophysiology, diagnosis, and management of this disease. Special emphasis is given to clinical pearls and pitfalls for the practicing allergist. Solar urticaria is a physical urticaria that can be difficult to diagnose and distinguish from other photodermatoses. There are some characteristic features that are important to remember when evaluating a patient with suspected solar urticaria. Testing can be difficult without the assistance of an experienced dermatologist because there are several different wavelengths of light that can lead to a patient's symptoms. Solar urticaria tends to be a chronic disease with a low 5-year resolution rate but can usually be effectively managed with multiple antihistamines.

A comparative study of three small-field detectors for patient specific stereotactic arc dosimetry.

This paper examines the difference in patient specific dosimetry using three different detectors of varying active volume, density and composition, for quality assurance of stereotactic treatments. A PTW 60017 unshielded electron diode, an Exradin W1 scintillator, and a PTW 31014 PinPoint small volume ionisation chamber were setup in a Lucy 3D QA phantom, and were positioned at the isocentre of an Elekta Axesse, with beam modulator collimator, using Exactrac and a HexaPODTM couch. Dose measurements were acquired for 43 stereotactic arcs, and compared to BrainLAB iPlan version 3.0.0 treatment planning system (TPS) calculations using a pencil beam algorithm. It was found that for arcs with field sizes [Formula: see text] mm, the properties of a detector have minimal impact on the measured doses, with all three detectors agreeing with the TPS (to within 5%). However, for field sizes [Formula: see text] mm, only the scintillator was found to yield results to within 5% of the TPS. The dose discrepancies were found to increase with decreasing field size. It is recommended that for field sizes [Formula: see text] mm, a water equivalent dosimeter like the Exradin W1 scintillator be used in order to minimise detector composition perturbations in the measured doses.

Anaphylaxis: a review of 601 cases.

BACKGROUND: The allergist usually sees patients with anaphylaxis after the event for the purposes of identifying the cause, establishing a prognosis, and preventing further episodes. Knowledge of the characteristics of such patients is essential to achieve these goals. OBJECTIVE: To examine the natural history, clinical manifestations, and factors that affect the patients' adherence to suggested treatment and preventive strategies of anaphylaxis. METHODS: A retrospective medical record review spanning 25 years (1978-2003) and follow-up questionnaires were used to obtain data on 601 patients who presented with anaphylaxis of unknown origin to a private university-affiliated allergy-immunology practice. RESULTS: Patients ranged in age from 1 to 79 years, with a mean age of 37 years. Females comprised 62% of cases. Causes of anaphylaxis were elucidated in 41% of cases. Known causes included foods in 131 patients (22%), medications in 69 cases (11%), and exercise in 31 cases (5%). Two hundred twenty-three patients (37%) were found to be atopic by history confirmed with skin prick testing. The most common manifestation was urticaria and/or angioedema, reported in 87% of patients. Systemic mastocytosis was found in 3 patients. Episodes tended to decline in frequency with time. Adherence to instructions to carry epinephrine can be improved with more effective teaching. CONCLUSIONS: In most cases, the cause of anaphylaxis is undetermined. Women are affected more commonly than men. Systemic mastocytosis should be considered in cases of idiopathic anaphylaxis, and patients with a history of atopy are at an increased risk of developing anaphylaxis. Patients are more reliably carrying epinephrine as a result of changes in physician instructions. Finally, anaphylactic episodes tend to decrease in frequency and severity with time.