Preindustrial 14CH4 indicates greater anthropogenic fossil CH4 emissions.

Atmospheric methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas, and its mole fraction has more than doubled since the preindustrial era1. Fossil fuel extraction and use are among the largest anthropogenic sources of CH4 emissions, but the precise magnitude of these contributions is a subject of debate2,3. Carbon-14 in CH4 (14CH4) can be used to distinguish between fossil (14C-free) CH4 emissions and contemporaneous biogenic sources; however, poorly constrained direct 14CH4 emissions from nuclear reactors have complicated this approach since the middle of the 20th century4,5. Moreover, the partitioning of total fossil CH4 emissions (presently 172 to 195 teragrams CH4 per year)2,3 between anthropogenic and natural geological sources (such as seeps and mud volcanoes) is under debate; emission inventories suggest that the latter account for about 40 to 60 teragrams CH4 per year6,7. Geological emissions were less than 15.4 teragrams CH4 per year at the end of the Pleistocene, about 11,600 years ago8, but that period is an imperfect analogue for present-day emissions owing to the large terrestrial ice sheet cover, lower sea level and extensive permafrost. Here we use preindustrial-era ice core 14CH4 measurements to show that natural geological CH4 emissions to the atmosphere were about 1.6 teragrams CH4 per year, with a maximum of 5.4 teragrams CH4 per year (95 per cent confidence limit)-an order of magnitude lower than the currently used estimates. This result indicates that anthropogenic fossil CH4 emissions are underestimated by about 38 to 58 teragrams CH4 per year, or about 25 to 40 per cent of recent estimates. Our record highlights the human impact on the atmosphere and climate, provides a firm target for inventories of the global CH4 budget, and will help to inform strategies for targeted emission reductions9,10.

Increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern China based on atmospheric observations.

The recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer relies on the continued decline in the atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting gases such as chlorofluorocarbons1. The atmospheric concentration of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11), the second-most abundant chlorofluorocarbon, has declined substantially since the mid-1990s2. A recently reported slowdown in the decline of the atmospheric concentration of CFC-11 after 2012, however, suggests that global emissions have increased3,4. A concurrent increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern Asia contributes to the global emission increase, but the location and magnitude of this regional source are unknown3. Here, using high-frequency atmospheric observations from Gosan, South Korea, and Hateruma, Japan, together with global monitoring data and atmospheric chemical transport model simulations, we investigate regional CFC-11 emissions from eastern Asia. We show that emissions from eastern mainland China are 7.0 ± 3.0 (±1 standard deviation) gigagrams per year higher in 2014-2017 than in 2008-2012, and that the increase in emissions arises primarily around the northeastern provinces of Shandong and Hebei. This increase accounts for a substantial fraction (at least 40 to 60 per cent) of the global rise in CFC-11 emissions. We find no evidence for a significant increase in CFC-11 emissions from any other eastern Asian countries or other regions of the world where there are available data for the detection of regional emissions. The attribution of any remaining fraction of the global CFC-11 emission rise to other regions is limited by the sparsity of long-term measurements of sufficient frequency near potentially emissive regions. Several considerations suggest that the increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern mainland China is likely to be the result of new production and use, which is inconsistent with the Montreal Protocol agreement to phase out global chlorofluorocarbon production by 2010.

Observational evidence for interhemispheric hydroxyl-radical parity.

The hydroxyl radical (OH) is a key oxidant involved in the removal of air pollutants and greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. The ratio of Northern Hemispheric to Southern Hemispheric (NH/SH) OH concentration is important for our understanding of emission estimates of atmospheric species such as nitrogen oxides and methane. It remains poorly constrained, however, with a range of estimates from 0.85 to 1.4 (refs 4, 7-10). Here we determine the NH/SH ratio of OH with the help of methyl chloroform data (a proxy for OH concentrations) and an atmospheric transport model that accurately describes interhemispheric transport and modelled emissions. We find that for the years 2004-2011 the model predicts an annual mean NH-SH gradient of methyl chloroform that is a tight linear function of the modelled NH/SH ratio in annual mean OH. We estimate a NH/SH OH ratio of 0.97 ± 0.12 during this time period by optimizing global total emissions and mean OH abundance to fit methyl chloroform data from two surface-measurement networks and aircraft campaigns. Our findings suggest that top-down emission estimates of reactive species such as nitrogen oxides in key emitting countries in the NH that are based on a NH/SH OH ratio larger than 1 may be overestimated.

Continued Emissions of the Ozone-Depleting Substance Carbon Tetrachloride From Eastern Asia.

Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) is an ozone-depleting substance, accounting for about 10% of the chlorine in the troposphere. Under the terms of the Montreal Protocol, its production for dispersive uses was banned from 2010. In this work we show that, despite the controls on production being introduced, CCl4 emissions from the eastern part of China did not decline between 2009 and 2016. This finding is in contrast to a recent bottom-up estimate, which predicted a significant decrease in emissions after the introduction of production controls. We find eastern Asian emissions of CCl4 to be 16 (9-24) Gg/year on average between 2009 and 2016, with the primary source regions being in eastern China. The spatial distribution of emissions that we derive suggests that the source distribution of CCl4 in China changed during the 8-year study period, indicating a new source or sources of emissions from China's Shandong province after 2012.

Increase in global emissions of HFC-23 despite near-total expected reductions.

Under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, new controls are being implemented to reduce emissions of HFC-23 (CHF[Formula: see text]), a by-product during the manufacture of HCFC-22 (CHClF[Formula: see text]). Starting in 2015, China and India, who dominate global HCFC-22 production (75% in 2017), set out ambitious programs to reduce HFC-23 emissions. Here, we estimate that these measures should have seen global emissions drop by 87% between 2014 and 2017. Instead, atmospheric observations show that emissions have increased and in 2018 were higher than at any point in history (15.9 [Formula: see text]). Given the magnitude of the discrepancy between expected and observation-inferred emissions, it is likely that the reported reductions have not fully materialized or there may be substantial unreported production of HCFC-22, resulting in unaccounted-for HFC-23 by-product emissions. The difference between reported and observation-inferred estimates suggests that an additional ~309 Tg [Formula: see text]-equivalent emissions were added to the atmosphere between 2015 and 2017.

Old carbon reservoirs were not important in the deglacial methane budget.

Permafrost and methane hydrates are large, climate-sensitive old carbon reservoirs that have the potential to emit large quantities of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, as the Earth continues to warm. We present ice core isotopic measurements of methane (Δ14C, δ13C, and δD) from the last deglaciation, which is a partial analog for modern warming. Our results show that methane emissions from old carbon reservoirs in response to deglacial warming were small (<19 teragrams of methane per year, 95% confidence interval) and argue against similar methane emissions in response to future warming. Our results also indicate that methane emissions from biomass burning in the pre-Industrial Holocene were 22 to 56 teragrams of methane per year (95% confidence interval), which is comparable to today.

Helium isotope effect in solution in water and seawater.

The isotope effect in the solution of helium in water from 0 degrees to 40 degrees C has been determined by microgasometric measurements of the solubilities of pure helium-3 and helium4. At 0 degrees C helium-3 is less soluble than helium-4 in both distilled water and sea-water by 1.2 percent. The observed fractionation factor is 0.988+/-0.002 at 0 degrees C and appears to decrease with increasing temperature at the rate of 0.0001 per degree Centigrade, although the existence of this trend is of limited statistical certainty. The measured isotope effect is in agreement with the ratio of helium-3 to helium-4 in surface ocean water reported by Clarke, Beg, and Craig.

Anthropogenic chlorofluoromethanes in the greenland and norwegian seas.

The concentrations of two industrially produced chlorofluoromethanes, CCl(3)F(F-11) and CCl(2)F(2)(F-12), have been measured in the water column and in the marine atmosphere of the Greenland and Norwegian seas. Measurable concentrations of these two chlorofluoromethanes have penetrated to the deep basins of both of these regions, and the general characteristics of their vertical distributions are similar to those of the bomb-produced radioisotopes injected into the atmosphere on a similar time scale. The data have been fitted to a time-dependent box model based on deep convective mixing in the Greenland Sea and lateral exchange between the deep basins. The model calculations for the two chlorofluoromethanes in the Greenland Sea give similar results, with a time scale for deep convection of about 40 years. The time scale for lateral mixing between the deep Greenland Sea and the deep Norwegian Sea is estimated to be 20 to 30 years, although the agreement between the calculations for the two chlorofluoromethanes is limited by analytical uncertainties at the low concentrations found in the deep Norwegian Sea and by uncertainties in the model assumptions.

Altruism is rewarding.

People will learn an instrumental conditioned response, the reward for which is the deliverance of another human being from suffering.

Atmospheric Trends and Lifetime of CH3CCI3 and Global OH Concentrations.

Determination of the atmospheric concentrations and lifetime of trichloroethane (CH(3)CCI(3)) is very important in the context of global change. This halocarbon is involved in depletion of ozone, and the hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations determined from its lifetime provide estimates of the lifetimes of most other hydrogen-containing gases involved in the ozone layer and climate. Global measurements of trichloroethane indicate rising concentrations before and declining concentrations after late 1991. The lifetime of CH(3)CCI(3) in the total atmosphere is 4.8 +/- 0.3 years, which is substantially lower than previously estimated. The deduced hydroxyl radical concentration, which measures the atmosphere's oxidizing capability, shows little change from 1978 to 1994.

Evidence for substantial variations of atmospheric hydroxyl radicals in the past two decades.

The hydroxyl radical (OH) is the dominant oxidizing chemical in the atmosphere. It destroys most air pollutants and many gases involved in ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect. Global measurements of 1,1,1-trichloroethane (CH3CCl3, methyl chloroform) provide an accurate method for determining the global and hemispheric behavior of OH. Measurements show that CH3CCl3 levels rose steadily from 1978 to reach a maximum in 1992 and then decreased rapidly to levels in 2000 that were lower than the levels when measurements began in 1978. Analysis of these observations shows that global OH levels were growing between 1978 and 1988, but the growth rate was decreasing at a rate of 0.23 +/- 0.18% year(-2), so that OH levels began declining after 1988. Overall, the global average OH trend between 1978 and 2000 was -0.64 +/- 0.60% year(-1). These variations imply important and unexpected gaps in current understanding of the capability of the atmosphere to cleanse itself.

Chemical evidence of inter-hemispheric air mass intrusion into the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes.

The East Asian Summer Monsoon driven by temperature and moisture gradients between the Asian continent and the Pacific Ocean, leads to approximately 50% of the annual rainfall in the region across 20-40°N. Due to its increasing scientific and social importance, there have been several previous studies on identification of moisture sources for summer monsoon rainfall over East Asia mainly using Lagrangian or Eulerian atmospheric water vapor models. The major source regions for EASM previously proposed include the North Indian Ocean, South China Sea and North western Pacific. Based on high-precision and high-frequency 6-year measurement records of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), here we report a direct evidence of rapid intrusion of warm and moist tropical air mass from the Southern Hemisphere (SH) reaching within a couple of days up to 33°N into East Asia. We further suggest that the combination of direct chemical tracer record and a back-trajectory model with physical meteorological variables helps pave the way to identify moisture sources for monsoon rainfall. A case study for Gosan station (33.25°N, 126.19°E) indicates that the meridional transport of precipitable water from the SH accompanying the southerly/southwesterly flow contributes most significantly to its summer rainfall.

The reinforcing effects of the recommendation in the threatening communication.

An instrumental escape conditioning paradigm was used to test the drive reducing effects of the recommendation in a threatening communication. Analogies were drawn between threatening communications and conditioning. Instrumental response speed was a monotonic decreasing function of delay of reinforcement: 0, 2, 6 sec (p less than .001). Each of the three delay groups acquired the instrumental response (p less than .001). Speed = 1/latency, automatically measured to .01 sec by a Lafayette digital stop clock. The Ss were 54 undergraduate males. A procedure was introduced to allow the separation and analysis of the drive inducing and reinforcing components of a threatening communication. Significant differences were detected between the reinforcing effects of communications (p less than .008). The results were interpreted in terms of the fear reduction model of persuasive communication.

Extraskeletal calcified synoviobursitis.

A large synoviobursitis calcified mass is not commonly seen in the digits of the foot. After injury, effusion subcutaneous hemorrhage and synovitis may occur with a fluctuating edema over the inflamed parts. In the later stages, a nodular type of increase in soft tissue density within the confines of the joint capsule may be the result of tumor formation. The mass may develop beyond capsular tissue and may resemble a synoviobursitis calcified mass. This must be considered in a differential diagnosis to rule out any malignant manifestation.

The negative reinforcing functions of nonconformity.

Employing the general approach which Neal Miller called "extension of liberalized S-R theory," two experiments (N = 108) found that Ss would learn an instrumental response, the reinforcement for which was the opportunity to escape from a situation in which they were a nonconformist. When the nonconformity situations were presented on an intermittent basis, speed of the response was found to be a function of the percentage of nonconformity trials (p <.001). When the opportunity to escape was delayed (0, 1.5, or 3 sec), response acquisition was found to be an inverse function of the length of the delay (p <.001). The results of both experiments correspond to data collected in instrumental escape conditioning experiments on delay of reinforcement and intermittent shock using similar procedures.

Natural methyl bromide and methyl chloride emissions from coastal salt marshes.

Atmospheric methyl bromide (CH3Br) and methyl chloride (CH3Cl), compounds that are involved in stratospheric ozone depletion, originate from both natural and anthropogenic sources. Current estimates of CH3Br and CH3Cl emissions from oceanic sources, terrestrial plants and fungi, biomass burning and anthropogenic inputs do not balance their losses owing to oxidation by hydroxyl radicals, oceanic degradation, and consumption in soils, suggesting that additional natural terrestrial sources may be important. Here we show that CH3Br and CH3Cl are released to the atmosphere from all vegetation zones of two coastal salt marshes. We see very large fluxes of CH3Br and CH3Cl per unit area: up to 42 and 570 micromol m(-2) d(-1), respectively. The fluxes show large diurnal, seasonal and spatial variabilities, but there is a strong correlation between the fluxes of CH3Br and those of CH3Cl, with an average molar flux ratio of roughly 1:20. If our measurements are typical of salt marshes globally, they suggest that such ecosystems, even though they constitute less than 0.1% of the global surface area, may produce roughly 10% of the total fluxes of atmospheric CH3Br and CH3Cl.

Global air-sea flux of CO2: an estimate based on measurements of sea-air pCO2 difference.

Approximately 250,000 measurements made for the pCO2 difference between surface water and the marine atmosphere, DeltapCO2, have been assembled for the global oceans. Observations made in the equatorial Pacific during El Nino events have been excluded from the data set. These observations are mapped on the global 4 degrees x 5 degrees grid for a single virtual calendar year (chosen arbitrarily to be 1990) representing a non-El Nino year. Monthly global distributions of DeltapCO2 have been constructed using an interpolation method based on a lateral advection-diffusion transport equation. The net flux of CO2 across the sea surface has been computed using DeltapCO2 distributions and CO2 gas transfer coefficients across sea surface. The annual net uptake flux of CO2 by the global oceans thus estimated ranges from 0.60 to 1.34 Gt-Cyr-1 depending on different formulations used for wind speed dependence on the gas transfer coefficient. These estimates are subject to an error of up to 75% resulting from the numerical interpolation method used to estimate the distribution of DeltapCO2 over the global oceans. Temperate and polar oceans of the both hemispheres are the major sinks for atmospheric CO2, whereas the equatorial oceans are the major sources for CO2. The Atlantic Ocean is the most important CO2 sink, providing about 60% of the global ocean uptake, while the Pacific Ocean is neutral because of its equatorial source flux being balanced by the sink flux of the temperate oceans. The Indian and Southern Oceans take up about 20% each.