From theory to practice in pattern-oriented modelling: identifying and using empirical patterns in predictive models.

To robustly predict the effects of disturbance and ecosystem changes on species, it is necessary to produce structurally realistic models with high predictive power and flexibility. To ensure that these models reflect the natural conditions necessary for reliable prediction, models must be informed and tested using relevant empirical observations. Pattern-oriented modelling (POM) offers a systematic framework for employing empirical patterns throughout the modelling process and has been coupled with complex systems modelling, such as in agent-based models (ABMs). However, while the production of ABMs has been rising rapidly, the explicit use of POM has not increased. Challenges with identifying patterns and an absence of specific guidelines on how to implement empirical observations may limit the accessibility of POM and lead to the production of models which lack a systematic consideration of reality. This review serves to provide guidance on how to identify and apply patterns following a POM approach in ABMs (POM-ABMs), specifically addressing: where in the ecological hierarchy can we find patterns; what kinds of patterns are useful; how should simulations and observations be compared; and when in the modelling cycle are patterns used? The guidance and examples provided herein are intended to encourage the application of POM and inspire efficient identification and implementation of patterns for both new and experienced modellers alike. Additionally, by generalising patterns found especially useful for POM-ABM development, these guidelines provide practical help for the identification of data gaps and guide the collection of observations useful for the development and verification of predictive models. Improving the accessibility and explicitness of POM could facilitate the production of robust and structurally realistic models in the ecological community, contributing to the advancement of predictive ecology at large.

Genetic diversity of the Nubian ibex in Oman as revealed by mitochondrial DNA.

The Nubian ibex (Capra nubiana) is patchily distributed across parts of Africa and Arabia. In Oman, it is one of the few free-ranging wild mammals found in the central and southern regions. Its population is declining due to habitat degradation, human expansion, poaching and fragmentation. Here, we investigated the population's genetic diversity using mitochondrial DNA (D-loop 186 bp and cytochrome b 487 bp). We found that the Nubian ibex in the southern region of Oman was more diverse (D-loop HD; 0.838) compared with the central region (0.511) and gene flow between them was restricted. We compared the genetic profiles of wild Nubian ibex from Oman with captive ibex. A Bayesian phylogenetic tree showed that wild Nubian ibex form a distinct clade independent from captive animals. This divergence was supported by high mean distances (D-loop 0.126, cytochrome b 0.0528) and high F ST statistics (D-loop 0.725, cytochrome b 0.968). These results indicate that captive ibex are highly unlikely to have originated from the wild population in Oman and the considerable divergence suggests that the wild population in Oman should be treated as a distinct taxonomic unit. Further nuclear genetic work will be required to fully elucidate the degree of global taxonomic divergence of Nubian ibex populations.