Post-trial monitoring of a randomised controlled trial of intensive glycaemic control in type 2 diabetes extended from 10 years to 24 years (UKPDS 91).

BACKGROUND: The 20-year UK Prospective Diabetes Study showed major clinical benefits for people with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes randomly allocated to intensive glycaemic control with sulfonylurea or insulin therapy or metformin therapy, compared with conventional glycaemic control. 10-year post-trial follow-up identified enduring and emerging glycaemic and metformin legacy treatment effects. We aimed to determine whether these effects would wane by extending follow-up for another 14 years. METHODS: 5102 patients enrolled between 1977 and 1991, of whom 4209 (82·5%) participants were originally randomly allocated to receive either intensive glycaemic control (sulfonylurea or insulin, or if overweight, metformin) or conventional glycaemic control (primarily diet). At the end of the 20-year interventional trial, 3277 surviving participants entered a 10-year post-trial monitoring period, which ran until Sept 30, 2007. Eligible participants for this study were all surviving participants at the end of the 10-year post-trial monitoring period. An extended follow-up of these participants was done by linking them to their routinely collected National Health Service (NHS) data for another 14 years. Clinical outcomes were derived from records of deaths, hospital admissions, outpatient visits, and accident and emergency unit attendances. We examined seven prespecified aggregate clinical outcomes (ie, any diabetes-related endpoint, diabetes-related death, death from any cause, myocardial infarction, stroke, peripheral vascular disease, and microvascular disease) by the randomised glycaemic control strategy on an intention-to-treat basis using Kaplan-Meier time-to-event and log-rank analyses. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN75451837. FINDINGS: Between Oct 1, 2007, and Sept 30, 2021, 1489 (97·6%) of 1525 participants could be linked to routinely collected NHS administrative data. Their mean age at baseline was 50·2 years (SD 8·0), and 41·3% were female. The mean age of those still alive as of Sept 30, 2021, was 79·9 years (SD 8·0). Individual follow-up from baseline ranged from 0 to 42 years, median 17·5 years (IQR 12·3-26·8). Overall follow-up increased by 21%, from 66 972 to 80 724 person-years. For up to 24 years after trial end, the glycaemic and metformin legacy effects showed no sign of waning. Early intensive glycaemic control with sulfonylurea or insulin therapy, compared with conventional glycaemic control, showed overall relative risk reductions of 10% (95% CI 2-17; p=0·015) for death from any cause, 17% (6-26; p=0·002) for myocardial infarction, and 26% (14-36; p<0·0001) for microvascular disease. Corresponding absolute risk reductions were 2·7%, 3·3%, and 3·5%, respectively. Early intensive glycaemic control with metformin therapy, compared with conventional glycaemic control, showed overall relative risk reductions of 20% (95% CI 5-32; p=0·010) for death from any cause and 31% (12-46; p=0·003) for myocardial infarction. Corresponding absolute risk reductions were 4·9% and 6·2%, respectively. No significant risk reductions during or after the trial for stroke or peripheral vascular disease were observed for both intensive glycaemic control groups, and no significant risk reduction for microvascular disease was observed for metformin therapy. INTERPRETATION: Early intensive glycaemic control with sulfonylurea or insulin, or with metformin, compared with conventional glycaemic control, appears to confer a near-lifelong reduced risk of death and myocardial infarction. Achieving near normoglycaemia immediately following diagnosis might be essential to minimise the lifetime risk of diabetes-related complications to the greatest extent possible. FUNDING: University of Oxford Nuffield Department of Population Health Pump Priming.

Legacy benefits of blood pressure treatment on cardiovascular events are primarily mediated by improved blood pressure variability: the ASCOT trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Visit-to-visit systolic blood pressure variability (BPV) is an important predictor of cardiovascular (CV) outcomes. The long-term effect of a period of blood pressure (BP) control, but with differential BPV, is uncertain. Morbidity and mortality follow-up of UK participants in the Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-Blood Pressure-Lowering Arm has been extended for up to 21 years to determine the CV impact of mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) control and BPV during the trial, and amongst those allocated to amlodipine- and atenolol-based treatment. METHODS: Eight thousand five hundred and eighty hypertensive participants (4305 assigned to amlodipine ± perindopril-based and 4275 to atenolol ± diuretic-based treatment during the in-trial period (median 5.5 years) were followed for up to 21 years (median 17.4 years), using linked hospital and mortality records. A subgroup of participants (n = 2156) was followed up 6 years after the trial closure with a self-administered questionnaire and a clinic visit. In-trial mean SBP and standard deviation of visit-to-visit SBP as a measure of BPV, were measured using >100 000 BP measurements. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the risk [hazard ratios (HRs)], associated with (i) mean with SBP and BPV during the in-trial period, for the CV endpoints occurring after the end of the trial and (ii) randomly assigned treatment to events following randomization, for the first occurrence of pre-specified CV outcomes. RESULTS: Using BP data from the in-trial period, in the post-trial period, although mean SBP was a predictor of CV outcomes {HR per 10 mmHg, 1.14 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-1.17], P < .001}, systolic BPV independent of mean SBP was a strong predictor of CV events [HR per 5 mmHg 1.22 (95% CI 1.18-1.26), P < .001] and predicted events even in participants with well-controlled BP. During 21-year follow-up, those on amlodipine-based compared with atenolol-based in-trial treatment had significantly reduced risk of stroke [HR 0.82 (95% CI 0.72-0.93), P = .003], total CV events [HR 0.93 (95% CI 0.88-0.98), P = .008], total coronary events [HR 0.92 (95% CI 0.86-0.99), P = .024], and atrial fibrillation [HR 0.91 (95% CI 0.83-0.99), P = .030], with weaker evidence of a difference in CV mortality [HR 0.91 (95% CI 0.82-1.01), P = .073]. There was no significant difference in the incidence of non-fatal myocardial infarction and fatal coronary heart disease, heart failure, and all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Systolic BPV is a strong predictor of CV outcome, even in those with controlled SBP. The long-term benefits of amlodipine-based treatment compared with atenolol-based treatment in reducing CV events appear to be primarily mediated by an effect on systolic BPV during the trial period.

Interleukin-6, C-Reactive Protein, and Recurrence After Stroke: A Time-Course Analysis of Individual-Participant Data.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation promotes atherogenesis. Randomized controlled trials of anti-inflammatory therapies for prevention after stroke have not yet demonstrated clear benefit. IL-6 (interleukin-6) and hsCRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) are independently associated with major adverse cardiovascular events poststroke and may guide patient selection in future randomized controlled trials. Optimal timing of hsCRP/IL-6 measurement poststroke is unknown, as early blood levels may be confounded by the inflammatory response to brain infarction. METHODS: Using individual-participant data from a systematic review, we performed a time-course analysis to investigate the association between hsCRP/IL-6 and recurrent events stratified by timing of sampling. The prespecified coprimary end points after sample measurement were: (1) recurrent major adverse cardiovascular events (first major coronary event, recurrent stroke, or vascular death) and (2) recurrent stroke (ischemic, hemorrhagic, or unspecified). The poststroke dynamics of IL-6/hsCRP were analyzed by plotting their median (interquartile interval) concentrations within each tenth of the sampling timeframe. Acute/postacute phases were defined for each biomarker according to the shape of this relationship. RESULTS: There were data for 9798 patients from 11 studies (19 891 person-years follow-up, 10 observational cohorts, and 1 randomized trial). Each marker was measured once. IL-6 was markedly elevated <24 hours poststroke compared with postacute levels (≥24 hours; 11.6 versus 3.02 pg/mL; P<0.001). HsCRP was elevated for 10 days. IL-6 was associated with recurrent major adverse cardiovascular events in the postacute phase (≥24 hours; risk ratio, 1.30 [CI, 1.19-1.41], per unit logeIL-6), but not in the acute phase (<24 hours; risk ratio, 1.10 [CI, 0.98-1.25]; Pinteraction=0.03). After adjustment for risk factors/medication, the association remained for postacute IL-6 when analyzed per logeunit (risk ratio, 1.16 [CI, 1.05-1.66]) and per quarter increase (risk ratio, 1.55 [CI, 1.19-2.02]; Q4 versus Q1), but not if measured acutely. Similar findings were observed for recurrent stroke. There was no evidence of time-dependent interaction with hsCRP. CONCLUSIONS: Timing of sample measurement after stroke modifies the association with recurrent major adverse cardiovascular events for IL-6 but not hsCRP. These data inform future randomized controlled trial designs incorporating biomarker-based selection of patients for anti-inflammatory therapies.

Noninvasive In Vivo Thrombus Imaging in Patients With Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack-Brief Report.

BACKGROUND: 18F-GP1 is a novel positron-emitting radiotracer that is highly specific for activated platelets and thrombus. In a proof-of-concept study, we aimed to determine its potential clinical application in establishing the role and origin of thrombus in ischemic stroke. METHODS: Eleven patients with recent ischemic stroke (n=9) or transient ischemic attack (n=2) underwent 18F-GP1 positron emission tomography and computed tomography angiography at a median of 11 (range, 2-21) days from symptom onset. 18F-GP1 uptake (maximum target-to-background ratio) was assessed in the carotid arteries and brain. RESULTS: 18F-GP1 uptake was identified in 10 of 11 patients: 4 in the carotid arteries only, 3 in the brain only, and 3 in both the brain and carotid arteries. In those with carotid uptake, 4 participants had >50% stenosis and 3 had nonstenotic disease. One case had bilateral stenotic disease (>70%), but only the culprit carotid artery demonstrated 18F-GP1 uptake. The average uptake was higher in the culprit (median maximum target-to-background ratio, 1.55 [interquartile range, 1.26-1.82]) compared with the contralateral nonculprit carotid artery (maximum target-to-background ratio, 1.22 [1.19-1.6]). In those with brain 18F-GP1 uptake (maximum target-to-background ratio, 6.45 [4.89-7.65]), areas of acute infarction on computed tomography correlated with brain 18F-GP1 uptake in 6 cases. Ex vivo autoradiography of postmortem infarcted brain tissue showed focal uptake corresponding to intraluminal thrombus within the culprit vessel and downstream microvasculature. There was also evidence of diffuse uptake within some of the infarcted brain tissue reflecting parenchymal petechial hemorrhage. CONCLUSIONS: 18F-GP1 positron emission tomography and computed tomography angiography is a novel noninvasive method of identifying in vivo cerebrovascular thrombosis, which holds major promise in understanding the role and origin of thrombosis in stroke. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT03943966.

Association of COVID-19 With Major Arterial and Venous Thrombotic Diseases: A Population-Wide Cohort Study of 48 Million Adults in England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) induces a prothrombotic state, but long-term effects of COVID-19 on incidence of vascular diseases are unclear. METHODS: We studied vascular diseases after COVID-19 diagnosis in population-wide anonymized linked English and Welsh electronic health records from January 1 to December 7, 2020. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios comparing the incidence of arterial thromboses and venous thromboembolic events (VTEs) after diagnosis of COVID-19 with the incidence in people without a COVID-19 diagnosis. We conducted subgroup analyses by COVID-19 severity, demographic characteristics, and previous history. RESULTS: Among 48 million adults, 125 985 were hospitalized and 1 319 789 were not hospitalized within 28 days of COVID-19 diagnosis. In England, there were 260 279 first arterial thromboses and 59 421 first VTEs during 41.6 million person-years of follow-up. Adjusted hazard ratios for first arterial thrombosis after COVID-19 diagnosis compared with no COVID-19 diagnosis declined from 21.7 (95% CI, 21.0-22.4) in week 1 after COVID-19 diagnosis to 1.34 (95% CI, 1.21-1.48) during weeks 27 to 49. Adjusted hazard ratios for first VTE after COVID-19 diagnosis declined from 33.2 (95% CI, 31.3-35.2) in week 1 to 1.80 (95% CI, 1.50-2.17) during weeks 27 to 49. Adjusted hazard ratios were higher, for longer after diagnosis, after hospitalized versus nonhospitalized COVID-19, among Black or Asian versus White people, and among people without versus with a previous event. The estimated whole-population increases in risk of arterial thromboses and VTEs 49 weeks after COVID-19 diagnosis were 0.5% and 0.25%, respectively, corresponding to 7200 and 3500 additional events, respectively, after 1.4 million COVID-19 diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS: High relative incidence of vascular events soon after COVID-19 diagnosis declines more rapidly for arterial thromboses than VTEs. However, incidence remains elevated up to 49 weeks after COVID-19 diagnosis. These results support policies to prevent severe COVID-19 by means of COVID-19 vaccines, early review after discharge, risk factor control, and use of secondary preventive agents in high-risk patients.

C-Reactive Protein, Interleukin-6, and Vascular Recurrence After Stroke: An Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Anti-inflammatory therapies reduce recurrent vascular events in coronary disease. Existing studies have reported highly conflicting findings for the association of blood inflammatory markers with vascular recurrence after stroke leading to uncertainty about the potential of anti-inflammatory therapies after stroke and no consensus about the utility of measurement of inflammatory markers in current guidelines. METHODS: We investigated the association between hsCRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein), IL-6 (interluekin-6), and recurrent major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and stroke from individual participant data from 8420 patients with ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack from 10 prospective studies. We did within-study multivariable regression analyses and then combined adjusted risk ratio (RR) by random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: During 18 920 person-years of follow-up, 1407 (16.7% [95% CI, 15.9-17.5]) patients had MACE and 1191 (14.1% [95% CI, 13.4-14.9]) patients had recurrent stroke. On bivariate analysis, baseline IL-6 was associated with MACE (RR, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.10-1.43]) and recurrent stroke (RR, 1.18 [95% CI, 1.05-1.32]), per unit increase logeIL-6. Similar associations were observed for hsCRP (MACE RR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.09-1.29]; recurrent stroke RR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.04-1.21], per unit increase logehsCRP). After adjustment for vascular risk factors and treatment, independent associations remained with MACE (IL-6, RR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.04-1.21]; hsCRP, RR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.04-1.15]) and recurrent stroke (IL-6, RR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.00-1.19]; hsCRP, RR, 1.05 [95% CI, 1.00-1.11]). Comparing the top with the bottom quarters (Q4 versus Q1), IL-6 (RR, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.09-1.67]) and hsCRP (RR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.07-1.61]) were associated with MACE after adjustment. Similar results were observed for recurrent stroke for IL-6 (RR, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.08-1.65]) but not hsCRP (RR, 1.16 [95% CI, 0.93-1.43]). CONCLUSIONS: Blood markers of inflammation were independently associated with vascular recurrence after stroke, strengthening the rationale for randomized trials of anti-inflammatory therapies for secondary prevention after ischemic stroke/TIA.

Antiplatelet therapy and incident cognitive impairment or dementia-a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised clinical trials.

OBJECTIVE: The benefit of antiplatelet therapy in preventing cognitive impairment or dementia is uncertain. We investigated the association between antiplatelet therapy and incident cognitive impairment or dementia in randomised clinical trials. METHODS: We searched PubMed, EMBASE and CENTRAL for randomised clinical trials published from database inception through 1 February 2023. Trials that evaluated the association of antiplatelet therapy with incident cognitive impairment or dementia were included. For single-agent antiplatelet, the control group was placebo. For dual agent antiplatelet therapy, the control group was single-agent monotherapy. A random-effects meta-analysis model was used to report pooled treatment effects and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The primary outcome was incident cognitive impairment or dementia. Secondary outcomes included change in cognitive test scores. RESULTS: A total of 11 randomised clinical trials were included (109,860 participants). All reported the incidence of cognitive impairment or dementia on follow-up. The mean (SD) age of trial participants was 66.2 (7.9) years. Antiplatelet therapy was not significantly associated with a reduced risk of cognitive impairment or dementia (11 trials; 109,860 participants) (3.49% versus 4.18% of patients over a mean trial follow-up of 5.8 years; odds ratio [OR], 0.94 [95% CI, 0.88-1.00]; absolute risk reduction, 0.2% [95% CI, -0.4% to 0.009%]; I2 = 0.0%). Antiplatelet therapy was not significantly associated with mean change in cognitive test scores. CONCLUSION: In this meta-analysis, antiplatelet therapy was not significantly associated with a lower risk of incident cognitive impairment or dementia, but the CIs around this outcome do not exclude a modest preventative effect.

Ontology-driven and weakly supervised rare disease identification from clinical notes.

BACKGROUND: Computational text phenotyping is the practice of identifying patients with certain disorders and traits from clinical notes. Rare diseases are challenging to be identified due to few cases available for machine learning and the need for data annotation from domain experts. METHODS: We propose a method using ontologies and weak supervision, with recent pre-trained contextual representations from Bi-directional Transformers (e.g. BERT). The ontology-driven framework includes two steps: (i) Text-to-UMLS, extracting phenotypes by contextually linking mentions to concepts in Unified Medical Language System (UMLS), with a Named Entity Recognition and Linking (NER+L) tool, SemEHR, and weak supervision with customised rules and contextual mention representation; (ii) UMLS-to-ORDO, matching UMLS concepts to rare diseases in Orphanet Rare Disease Ontology (ORDO). The weakly supervised approach is proposed to learn a phenotype confirmation model to improve Text-to-UMLS linking, without annotated data from domain experts. We evaluated the approach on three clinical datasets, MIMIC-III discharge summaries, MIMIC-III radiology reports, and NHS Tayside brain imaging reports from two institutions in the US and the UK, with annotations. RESULTS: The improvements in the precision were pronounced (by over 30% to 50% absolute score for Text-to-UMLS linking), with almost no loss of recall compared to the existing NER+L tool, SemEHR. Results on radiology reports from MIMIC-III and NHS Tayside were consistent with the discharge summaries. The overall pipeline processing clinical notes can extract rare disease cases, mostly uncaptured in structured data (manually assigned ICD codes). CONCLUSION: The study provides empirical evidence for the task by applying a weakly supervised NLP pipeline on clinical notes. The proposed weak supervised deep learning approach requires no human annotation except for validation and testing, by leveraging ontologies, NER+L tools, and contextual representations. The study also demonstrates that Natural Language Processing (NLP) can complement traditional ICD-based approaches to better estimate rare diseases in clinical notes. We discuss the usefulness and limitations of the weak supervision approach and propose directions for future studies.

Harmonising electronic health records for reproducible research: challenges, solutions and recommendations from a UK-wide COVID-19 research collaboration.

BACKGROUND: The CVD-COVID-UK consortium was formed to understand the relationship between COVID-19 and cardiovascular diseases through analyses of harmonised electronic health records (EHRs) across the four UK nations. Beyond COVID-19, data harmonisation and common approaches enable analysis within and across independent Trusted Research Environments. Here we describe the reproducible harmonisation method developed using large-scale EHRs in Wales to accommodate the fast and efficient implementation of cross-nation analysis in England and Wales as part of the CVD-COVID-UK programme. We characterise current challenges and share lessons learnt. METHODS: Serving the scope and scalability of multiple study protocols, we used linked, anonymised individual-level EHR, demographic and administrative data held within the SAIL Databank for the population of Wales. The harmonisation method was implemented as a four-layer reproducible process, starting from raw data in the first layer. Then each of the layers two to four is framed by, but not limited to, the characterised challenges and lessons learnt. We achieved curated data as part of our second layer, followed by extracting phenotyped data in the third layer. We captured any project-specific requirements in the fourth layer. RESULTS: Using the implemented four-layer harmonisation method, we retrieved approximately 100 health-related variables for the 3.2 million individuals in Wales, which are harmonised with corresponding variables for > 56 million individuals in England. We processed 13 data sources into the first layer of our harmonisation method: five of these are updated daily or weekly, and the rest at various frequencies providing sufficient data flow updates for frequent capturing of up-to-date demographic, administrative and clinical information. CONCLUSIONS: We implemented an efficient, transparent, scalable, and reproducible harmonisation method that enables multi-nation collaborative research. With a current focus on COVID-19 and its relationship with cardiovascular outcomes, the harmonised data has supported a wide range of research activities across the UK.

New Insights into Stroke from Continuous Passively Collected Temperature and Sleep Data Using Wrist-Worn Wearables.

Actigraphy may provide new insights into clinical outcomes and symptom management of patients through passive, continuous data collection. We used the GENEActiv smartwatch to passively collect actigraphy, wrist temperature, and ambient light data from 27 participants after stroke or probable brain transient ischemic attack (TIA) over 42 periods of device wear. We computed 323 features using established algorithms and proposed 25 novel features to characterize sleep and temperature. We investigated statistical associations between the extracted features and clinical outcomes evaluated using clinically validated questionnaires to gain insight into post-stroke recovery. We subsequently fitted logistic regression models to replicate clinical diagnosis (stroke or TIA) and disability due to stroke. The model generalization performance was assessed using a leave-one-subject-out cross validation method with the selected feature subsets, reporting the area under the curve (AUC). We found that several novel features were strongly correlated (|r|>0.3) with stroke symptoms and mental health measures. Using selected novel features, we obtained an AUC of 0.766 to estimate diagnosis and an AUC of 0.749 to estimate whether disability due to stroke was present. Collectively, these findings suggest that features extracted from the temperature smartwatch sensor may reveal additional clinically useful information over and above existing actigraphy-based features.

Clinical Diagnosis and Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Patients With Transient and Minor Neurological Symptoms: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The utility of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) brain in patients with transient or minor neurological symptoms is uncertain. We sought to determine the proportion of participants with transient or minor neurological symptoms who had MRI evidence of acute ischemia at different clinical probabilities of transient ischemic attack (TIA) or minor stroke. METHODS: Cohort of participants with transient or minor neurological symptoms from emergency and outpatient settings. Clinicians at different levels of training gave each participant a diagnostic probability (probable when TIA/stroke was the most likely differential diagnosis; possible when TIA/stroke was not the most likely differential diagnosis; or uncertain when diagnostic probability could not be given) before 1.5 or 3T brain MRI ≤5 days from onset. Post hoc, each clinical syndrome was defined blind to MRI findings as National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke criteria TIA/stroke; International Headache Society criteria migraine aura; non-TIA focal symptoms; or nonfocal symptoms. MRI evidence of acute ischemia was defined by 2 reads of MRI. Stroke was ascertained for at least 90 days and up to 18 months after recruitment. RESULTS: Two hundred seventy-two participated (47% female, mean age 60, SD 14), 58% with MRI ≤2 days of onset. Most (92%) reported focal symptoms. MR evidence of acute ischemia was found, for stroke/TIA clinical probabilities of probable 23 out of 75 (31% [95% CI, 21%-42%]); possible 26 out of 151 (17% [12%-24%]); and uncertain 9 out of 43, (20% [10%-36%]). MRI evidence of acute ischemia was found in National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke criteria TIA/stroke 40 out of 95 (42% [32%-53%]); migraine aura 4 out of 38 (11% [3%-25%]); non-TIA focal symptoms 16 out of 99 (16% [10%-25%]); and no focal features 1 out of 29 (3% [0%-18%]). After MRI, a further 14 (5% [95% CI, 3-8]) would be treated with an antiplatelet drug compared with treatment plan before MRI. By 18 months, a new ischemic stroke occurred in 9 out of 61 (18%) patients with MRI evidence of acute ischemia and 2 out of 211 (1%) without (age-adjusted hazard ratio, 13 [95% CI, 3-62]; P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: MRI evidence of acute brain ischemia was found in about 1 in 6 transient or minor neurological symptoms patients with a nonstroke/TIA initial diagnosis or uncertain diagnosis. Methods to determine the clinical and cost-effectiveness of MRI are needed in this population.

Genetic associations of adult height with risk of cardioembolic and other subtypes of ischemic stroke: A mendelian randomization study in multiple ancestries.

BACKGROUND: Taller adult height is associated with lower risks of ischemic heart disease in mendelian randomization (MR) studies, but little is known about the causal relevance of height for different subtypes of ischemic stroke. The present study examined the causal relevance of height for different subtypes of ischemic stroke. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Height-associated genetic variants (up to 2,337) from previous genome-wide association studies (GWASs) were used to construct genetic instruments in different ancestral populations. Two-sample MR approaches were used to examine the associations of genetically determined height with ischemic stroke and its subtypes (cardioembolic stroke, large-artery stroke, and small-vessel stroke) in multiple ancestries (the MEGASTROKE consortium, which included genome-wide studies of stroke and stroke subtypes: 60,341 ischemic stroke cases) supported by additional cases in individuals of white British ancestry (UK Biobank [UKB]: 4,055 cases) and Chinese ancestry (China Kadoorie Biobank [CKB]: 10,297 cases). The associations of genetically determined height with established cardiovascular and other risk factors were examined in 336,750 participants from UKB and 58,277 participants from CKB. In MEGASTROKE, genetically determined height was associated with a 4% lower risk (odds ratio [OR] 0.96; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.94, 0.99; p = 0.007) of ischemic stroke per 1 standard deviation (SD) taller height, but this masked a much stronger positive association of height with cardioembolic stroke (13% higher risk, OR 1.13 [95% CI 1.07, 1.19], p < 0.001) and stronger inverse associations with large-artery stroke (11% lower risk, OR 0.89 [0.84, 0.95], p < 0.001) and small-vessel stroke (13% lower risk, OR 0.87 [0.83, 0.92], p < 0.001). The findings in both UKB and CKB were directionally concordant with those observed in MEGASTROKE, but did not reach statistical significance: For presumed cardioembolic stroke, the ORs were 1.08 (95% CI 0.86, 1.35; p = 0.53) in UKB and 1.20 (0.77, 1.85; p = 0.43) in CKB; for other subtypes of ischemic stroke in UKB, the OR was 0.97 (95% CI 0.90, 1.05; p = 0.49); and for other nonlacunar stroke and lacunar stroke in CKB, the ORs were 0.89 (0.80, 1.00; p = 0.06) and 0.99 (0.88, 1.12; p = 0.85), respectively. In addition, genetically determined height was also positively associated with atrial fibrillation (available only in UKB), and with lean body mass and lung function, and inversely associated with low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol in both British and Chinese ancestries. Limitations of this study include potential bias from assortative mating or pleiotropic effects of genetic variants and incomplete generalizability of genetic instruments to different populations. CONCLUSIONS: The findings provide support for a causal association of taller adult height with higher risk of cardioembolic stroke and lower risk of other ischemic stroke subtypes in diverse ancestries. Further research is needed to understand the shared biological and physical pathways underlying the associations between height and stroke risks, which could identify potential targets for treatments to prevent stroke.

Association of COVID-19 vaccines ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 with major venous, arterial, or thrombocytopenic events: A population-based cohort study of 46 million adults in England.

BACKGROUND: Thromboses in unusual locations after the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine ChAdOx1-S have been reported, although their frequency with vaccines of different types is uncertain at a population level. The aim of this study was to estimate the population-level risks of hospitalised thrombocytopenia and major arterial and venous thromboses after COVID-19 vaccination. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this whole-population cohort study, we analysed linked electronic health records from adults living in England, from 8 December 2020 to 18 March 2021. We estimated incidence rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for major arterial, venous, and thrombocytopenic outcomes 1 to 28 and >28 days after first vaccination dose for ChAdOx1-S and BNT162b2 vaccines. Analyses were performed separately for ages <70 and ≥70 years and adjusted for age, age2, sex, ethnicity, and deprivation. We also prespecified adjustment for anticoagulant medication, combined oral contraceptive medication, hormone replacement therapy medication, history of pulmonary embolism or deep vein thrombosis, and history of coronavirus infection in analyses of venous thrombosis; and diabetes, hypertension, smoking, antiplatelet medication, blood pressure lowering medication, lipid lowering medication, anticoagulant medication, history of stroke, and history of myocardial infarction in analyses of arterial thromboses. We selected further covariates with backward selection. Of 46 million adults, 23 million (51%) were women; 39 million (84%) were <70; and 3.7 million (8.1%) Asian or Asian British, 1.6 million (3.5%) Black or Black British, 36 million (79%) White, 0.7 million (1.5%) mixed ethnicity, and 1.5 million (3.2%) were of another ethnicity. Approximately 21 million (46%) adults had their first vaccination between 8 December 2020 and 18 March 2021. The crude incidence rates (per 100,000 person-years) of all venous events were as follows: prevaccination, 140 [95% confidence interval (CI): 138 to 142]; ≤28 days post-ChAdOx1-S, 294 (281 to 307); >28 days post-ChAdOx1-S, 359 (338 to 382), ≤28 days post-BNT162b2-S, 241 (229 to 253); >28 days post-BNT162b2-S 277 (263 to 291). The crude incidence rates (per 100,000 person-years) of all arterial events were as follows: prevaccination, 546 (95% CI: 541 to 555); ≤28 days post-ChAdOx1-S, 1,211 (1,185 to 1,237); >28 days post-ChAdOx1-S, 1678 (1,630 to 1,726), ≤28 days post-BNT162b2-S, 1,242 (1,214 to 1,269); >28 days post-BNT162b2-S, 1,539 (1,507 to 1,572). Adjusted HRs (aHRs) 1 to 28 days after ChAdOx1-S, compared with unvaccinated rates, at ages <70 and ≥70 years, respectively, were 0.97 (95% CI: 0.90 to 1.05) and 0.58 (0.53 to 0.63) for venous thromboses, and 0.90 (0.86 to 0.95) and 0.76 (0.73 to 0.79) for arterial thromboses. Corresponding aHRs for BNT162b2 were 0.81 (0.74 to 0.88) and 0.57 (0.53 to 0.62) for venous thromboses, and 0.94 (0.90 to 0.99) and 0.72 (0.70 to 0.75) for arterial thromboses. aHRs for thrombotic events were higher at younger ages for venous thromboses after ChAdOx1-S, and for arterial thromboses after both vaccines. Rates of intracranial venous thrombosis (ICVT) and of thrombocytopenia in adults aged <70 years were higher 1 to 28 days after ChAdOx1-S (aHRs 2.27, 95% CI: 1.33 to 3.88 and 1.71, 1.35 to 2.16, respectively), but not after BNT162b2 (0.59, 0.24 to 1.45 and 1.00, 0.75 to 1.34) compared with unvaccinated. The corresponding absolute excess risks of ICVT 1 to 28 days after ChAdOx1-S were 0.9 to 3 per million, varying by age and sex. The main limitations of the study are as follows: (i) it relies on the accuracy of coded healthcare data to identify exposures, covariates, and outcomes; (ii) the use of primary reason for hospital admission to measure outcome, which improves the positive predictive value but may lead to an underestimation of incidence; and (iii) potential unmeasured confounding. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed increases in rates of ICVT and thrombocytopenia after ChAdOx1-S vaccination in adults aged <70 years that were small compared with its effect in reducing COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, although more precise estimates for adults aged <40 years are needed. For people aged ≥70 years, rates of arterial or venous thrombotic events were generally lower after either vaccine compared with unvaccinated, suggesting that either vaccine is suitable in this age group.

18F-NaF PET/MRI for Detection of Carotid Atheroma in Acute Neurovascular Syndrome.

Background MRI and fluorine 18-labeled sodium fluoride (18F-NaF) PET can be used to identify features of plaque instability, rupture, and disease activity, but large studies have not been performed. Purpose To evaluate the association between 18F-NaF activity and culprit carotid plaque in acute neurovascular syndrome. Materials and Methods In this prospective observational cohort study (October 2017 to January 2020), participants underwent 18F-NaF PET/MRI. An experienced clinician determined the culprit carotid artery based on symptoms and record review. 18F-NaF uptake was quantified using standardized uptake values and tissue-to-background ratios. Statistical significance was assessed with the Welch, χ2, Wilcoxon, or Fisher test. Multivariable models were used to evaluate the relationship between the imaging markers and the culprit versus nonculprit vessel. Results A total of 110 participants were evaluated (mean age, 68 years ± 10 [SD]; 70 men and 40 women). Of the 110, 34 (32%) had prior cerebrovascular disease, and 26 (24%) presented with amaurosis fugax, 54 (49%) with transient ischemic attack, and 30 (27%) with stroke. Compared with nonculprit carotids, culprit carotids had greater stenoses (≥50% stenosis: 30% vs 15% [P = .02]; ≥70% stenosis: 25% vs 4.5% [P < .001]) and had increased prevalence of MRI-derived adverse plaque features, including intraplaque hemorrhage (42% vs 23%; P = .004), necrotic core (36% vs 18%; P = .004), thrombus (7.3% vs 0%; P = .01), ulceration (18% vs 3.6%; P = .001), and higher 18F-NaF uptake (maximum tissue-to-background ratio, 1.38 [IQR, 1.12-1.82] vs 1.26 [IQR, 0.99-1.66], respectively; P = .04). Higher 18F-NaF uptake was positively associated with necrosis, intraplaque hemorrhage, ulceration, and calcification and inversely associated with fibrosis (P = .04 to P < .001). In multivariable analysis, carotid stenosis at or over 70% (odds ratio, 5.72 [95% CI: 2.2, 18]) and MRI-derived adverse plaque characteristics (odds ratio, 2.16 [95% CI: 1.2, 3.9]) were both associated with the culprit versus nonculprit carotid vessel. Conclusion Fluorine 18-labeled sodium fluoride PET/MRI characteristics were associated with the culprit carotid vessel in study participants with acute neurovascular syndrome. Clinical trial registration no. NCT03215550 and NCT03215563 © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Editor's Choice - Effect of Carotid Endarterectomy on 20 Year Incidence of Recorded Dementia: A Randomised Trial.

OBJECTIVE: Stroke and carotid atherosclerosis are associated with dementia. Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) reduces stroke risk, although its effect on later dementia is uncertain. Participants in the Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial (ACST-1), randomly allocated to immediate vs. deferral of CEA (i.e., no intervention unless or until triggered by ipsilateral transient ischaemic attack or stroke), were followed, to study effects on dementia. METHODS: From 1993 to 2003, ACST-1 included 3 120 participants with asymptomatic tight carotid stenosis. All UK and Swedish patients (n = 1 601; 796 immediate vs. 805 deferral) were followed with trial records, national electronic health record linkage, and (UK only) by post and telephone. Cumulative incidence and competing risk analyses were used to measure the effects of risk factors and CEA on dementia risk. Intention to treat analyses yielded hazard ratios (HRs; immediate vs. deferral) of dementia. RESULTS: The median follow up was 19.4 years (interquartile range 16.9 - 21.7). Dementia was recorded in 107 immediate CEA patients and 115 allocated delayed surgery; 1 290 patients died (1 091 [538 vs. 536] before any dementia diagnosis). Dementia incidence rose with age and with female sex (men: 8.3% aged < 70 years at trial entry vs. 15.1% aged ≥ 70; women: 15.1% aged < 70 years at trial entry vs. 22.4% aged ≥ 70 years) and was higher in those with pre-existing cerebral infarction (silent or with prior symptoms; 20.2% vs. 13.6%). Dementia risk was similar in both randomised groups: 6.7% vs. 6.6% at 10 years and 14.3% vs. 15.5% at 20 years, respectively. The dementia HR was 0.98 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75 - 1.28; p = .89), with no heterogeneity in the neutral effect of immediate CEA on dementia related to age, carotid stenosis, blood pressure, diabetes, country of residence, or medical treatments at trial entry (heterogeneity values p > .05). CONCLUSION: CEA was not associated with significant reductions in the long term hazards of dementia, but the CI did not exclude a proportional benefit or hazard of about 25%.

Functional Abilities of an International Post-Stroke Population: Standard Assessment of Global Everyday Activities (SAGEA) Scale.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Function is an important outcome after stroke; traditional assessments may not capture functional deficits important to patients. We examined the validity of the Standard Assessment of Global Everyday Activities (SAGEA), a patient-reported outcome that assesses activities important to patients and for use in international clinical trials. METHODS: The NAVIGATE-ESUS trial evaluated rivaroxaban compared to aspirin in preventing recurrent stroke in 7213 participants. The Modified Rankin Scale (mRS), the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), and the SAGEA were collected at entry. Chi square tests were used to compare proportions and Spearman rank correlations were used to compare between measures. SAGEA was compared to the Modified Frailty Index (MFI) and the occurrence of infarct to examine criterion validity RESULTS: Participants were 67 years, 2/3 were male, and at baseline 30% had no disability and 58% had slight disability according to mRS scores. SAGEA was weakly correlated with the mRS (r=0.37), the NIHSS (r=0.29) and the MFI (r=0.30). Of the 2154 with an mRS score of 0, 61% reported difficulty on the SAGEA. The largest discrepancies between SAGEA and other measures were because of cognitive functional deficits detected by the SAGEA that were not identified on other assessments. A larger number of MRI identified infarcts (acute and covert) were associated with a higher SAGEA score (p=0.007). CONCLUSIONS: The SAGEA is a simple, globally applicable measure of cognitive and functional abilities that identifies issues that other commonly used assessments of disability and function do not capture.

Rivaroxaban versus aspirin on functional and cognitive outcomes after embolic stroke of undetermined source: NAVIGATE ESUS trial.

BACKGROUND: The effect of interventions on functional impairment is an important outcome in stroke prevention trials and should be considered as an adjunct to counting discrete events. In the NAVIGATE-ESUS trial, 7213 patients with recent embolic strokes of undetermined source were randomized to rivaroxaban (15 mg once daily) or aspirin (100 mg daily). After 11 months there was no effect on the prevention of recurrent stroke. AIMS: To determine the effect of rivaroxaban compared to aspirin on functional and cognitive outcomes. METHODS: Function and cognition were measured at baseline, 1 year, and study end using the Standard Assessment of Global Everyday Activities (SAGEA), a 15-item scale assessing cognitive, instrumental, and basic activities of daily living as well as mobility, and the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA). Changes in scores were calculated by subtracting either study end or 1-year scores from baseline, and differences in distributions were compared using the Mann-Whitney U test. SAGEA and MoCA scores were also correlated with recurrent stroke. RESULTS: Follow-up SAGEA scores were available in 6378 (88%) participants. There was no difference in change in function for those allocated to rivaroxaban compared to aspirin (Mann-Whitney U test, p = 0.8), with both distributions having a median (25p,75p) change of 0 (-2,1). Overall, more of those who experienced a recurrent stroke (n=247; mostly minor ischemic), reported functional difficulty at study end versus entry, compared with those who did not (51% versus 30%, chi-square test, p< 0.001), and this was consistent across global regions. There was no difference in the change in cognition by treatment group, nor were recurrent strokes associated with a change in cognition. CONCLUSIONS: Rivaroxaban, compared to aspirin, was not associated with changes in functional or cognitive status in patients with recent ESUS. The SAGEA scale detected changes in functional status associated with recurrent strokes in an international stroke population.

Long-Term Incidence of Stroke and Dementia in ASCOT.

Background and Purpose: Management of stroke risk factors might reduce later dementia. In ASCOT (Anglo-Scandinavian Outcome Trial), we determined whether dementia or stroke were associated with different blood pressure (BP)­lowering regimens; atorvastatin or placebo; and mean BP, BP variability, and mean cholesterol levels. Methods: Participants with hypertension and ≥3 cardiovascular disease risk factors were randomly allocated to amlodipine- or atenolol-based BP-lowering regimen targeting BP <140/90 mm Hg for 5.5 years. Participants with total cholesterol ≤6.5 mmol/L were also randomly allocated to atorvastatin 10 mg or placebo for 3.3 years. Mean and LDL (low-density lipoprotein) cholesterol, BP, and SD of BP were calculated from 6 months to end of trial. UK participants were linked to electronic health records to ascertain deaths and hospitalization in general and mental health hospitals. Dementia and stroke were ascertained by validated code lists and within-trial ascertainment. Results: Of 8580 UK participants, 7300 were followed up to 21 years from randomization. Atorvastatin for 3.3 years had no measurable effect on stroke (264 versus 272; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.92 [95% CI, 0.78­1.09]; P=0.341) or dementia (238 versus 227; adjusted HR, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.82­1.18]; P=0.837) compared with placebo. Mean total cholesterol was not associated with later stroke or dementia. An amlodipine-based compared with an atenolol-based regimen for 5.5 years reduced stroke (443 versus 522; adjusted HR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.72­0.93]; P=0.003) but not dementia (450 versus 465; adjusted HR, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.82­1.07]; P=0.334) over follow-up. BP variability (SD mean BP) was associated with a higher risk of dementia (per 5 mm Hg HR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.06­1.24]; P<0.001) and stroke (HR, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.12­1.32]; P<0.001) adjusted for mean BP. Conclusions: An amlodipine-based BP regimen reduced the long-term incidence of stroke compared with an atenolol-based regimen but had no measurable effect on dementia. Atorvastatin had no effect on either stroke or dementia. Higher BP variability was associated with a higher incidence of later dementia and stroke.

Role of Blood-Based Biomarkers in Ischemic Stroke Prognosis: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Outcome prognostication in ischemic stroke patients remains challenging due to limited predictive properties of existing models. Blood-based biomarkers might provide additional information to established prognostic factors. We intended to identify the most promising prognostic biomarkers in ischemic stroke, their incremental prognostic value, and whether their predictive value differs among etiologies. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE (Ovid) and Institute for Scientific Information Web of Knowledge for articles reporting the predictive performance of blood-based biomarkers measured up to 7 days after ischemic stroke and reporting functional outcome or death at least 7 days after stroke. This work updates a previous systematic review (up to January 2007), follows the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement and was registered (International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews PROSPERO 2018; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/; Unique identifier: CRD42018094671). RESULTS: Two hundred ninety-one articles published between January 2007 and August 2018 comprising 257 different biomarkers met inclusion criteria. Median sample size was 232 (interquartile range, 110-455); 260 (89%) articles reported regression analyses with 78% adjusting for stroke severity, 82% for age, 67% for both, and 9% for none of them; 37% investigated discrimination, 5% calibration, and 11% reclassification. Including publications from a previous systematic review (1960-January 2007), natriuretic peptides, copeptin, procalcitonin, mannose-binding lectin, adipocyte fatty acid-binding protein, and cortisol were the biomarkers most consistently associated with poor outcome in higher-quality studies showing an incremental value over established prognostic factors. Other biomarkers were less consistently associated with poor outcome or were reported in lower quality studies. High heterogeneity among studies precluded the performance of a meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The number of reports on prognostic blood-based biomarkers in ischemic stroke increased 3.5-fold in the period January 2007 to August 2018. Although sample size increased, methodological flaws are still common. Natriuretic peptides and markers of inflammation, atherogenesis, and stress response are the most promising prognostic biomarkers among identified studies.

Benefits and Risks of Dual Versus Single Antiplatelet Therapy for Secondary Stroke Prevention: A Systematic Review for the 2021 Guideline for the Prevention of Stroke in Patients With Stroke and Transient Ischemic Attack.

BACKGROUND: Dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) after ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack may reduce recurrent stroke but also increase severe bleeding compared with single antiplatelet therapy (SAPT). The American Heart Association/American Stroke Association convened an evidence review committee to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of the benefits and risks of DAPT compared with SAPT for secondary ischemic stroke prevention. METHODS: The Medline, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched on December 5, 2019, to identify phase III or IV randomized controlled trials (n≥100) from December 1999 to December 2019. We calculated unadjusted relative risks (RRs) and performed meta-analyses of studies based on the duration of treatment (short [≤90 days] versus long [>90 days]). RESULTS: Three short-duration randomized controlled trials were identified that enrolled mostly patients with minor stroke or high risk transient ischemic attack. In these trials, DAPT, compared with SAPT, was associated with a lower 90-day risk of recurrent ischemic stroke (pooled RR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.55-0.83], I 2=37.1%). There was no significant increase in major bleeding with DAPT in short-duration trials (pooled RR, 1.88 [95% CI, 0.93-3.83], I 2=8.9%). In 2 long-duration treatment randomized controlled trials (mean treatment duration, 18-40 months), DAPT was not associated with a significant reduction in recurrent ischemic stroke (pooled RR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.79-1.02], I 2=1.4%), but was associated with a higher risk of major bleeding (pooled RR, 2.42 [95% CI, 1.37-4.30], I 2=75.5%). CONCLUSIONS: DAPT was more effective than SAPT for prevention of secondary ischemic stroke when initiated early after the onset of minor stroke/high-risk transient ischemic attack and treatment duration was <90 days. However, when the treatment duration was longer and initiated later after stroke or transient ischemic attack onset, DAPT was not more effective than SAPT for ischemic stroke prevention and it increased the risk of bleeding.