Extreme drought impacts have been underestimated in grasslands and shrublands globally.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of short-term (~1 y) drought events-the most common duration of drought-globally. Yet the impact of this intensification of drought on ecosystem functioning remains poorly resolved. This is due in part to the widely disparate approaches ecologists have employed to study drought, variation in the severity and duration of drought studied, and differences among ecosystems in vegetation, edaphic and climatic attributes that can mediate drought impacts. To overcome these problems and better identify the factors that modulate drought responses, we used a coordinated distributed experiment to quantify the impact of short-term drought on grassland and shrubland ecosystems. With a standardized approach, we imposed ~a single year of drought at 100 sites on six continents. Here we show that loss of a foundational ecosystem function-aboveground net primary production (ANPP)-was 60% greater at sites that experienced statistically extreme drought (1-in-100-y event) vs. those sites where drought was nominal (historically more common) in magnitude (35% vs. 21%, respectively). This reduction in a key carbon cycle process with a single year of extreme drought greatly exceeds previously reported losses for grasslands and shrublands. Our global experiment also revealed high variability in drought response but that relative reductions in ANPP were greater in drier ecosystems and those with fewer plant species. Overall, our results demonstrate with unprecedented rigor that the global impacts of projected increases in drought severity have been significantly underestimated and that drier and less diverse sites are likely to be most vulnerable to extreme drought.

Consistent predictors of microbial community composition across spatial scales in grasslands reveal low context-dependency.

Environmental circumstances shaping soil microbial communities have been studied extensively. However, due to disparate study designs, it has been difficult to resolve whether a globally consistent set of predictors exists, or context-dependency prevails. Here, we used a network of 18 grassland sites (11 of those containing regional plant productivity gradients) to examine (i) if similar abiotic or biotic factors predict both large-scale (across sites) and regional-scale (within sites) patterns in bacterial and fungal community composition, and (ii) if microbial community composition differs consistently at two levels of regional plant productivity (low vs. high). Our results revealed that bacteria were associated with particular soil properties (such as base saturation) and both bacteria and fungi were associated with plant community composition across sites and within the majority of sites. Moreover, a discernible microbial community signal emerged, clearly distinguishing high and low-productivity soils across different grasslands independent of their location in the world. Hence, regional productivity differences may be typified by characteristic soil microbial communities across the grassland biome. These results could encourage future research aiming to predict the general effects of global changes on soil microbial community composition in grasslands and to discriminate fertile from infertile systems using generally applicable microbial indicators.

Nutrient identity modifies the destabilising effects of eutrophication in grasslands.

Nutrient enrichment can simultaneously increase and destabilise plant biomass production, with co-limitation by multiple nutrients potentially intensifying these effects. Here, we test how factorial additions of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium with essential nutrients (K+) affect the stability (mean/standard deviation) of aboveground biomass in 34 grasslands over 7 years. Destabilisation with fertilisation was prevalent but was driven by single nutrients, not synergistic nutrient interactions. On average, N-based treatments increased mean biomass production by 21-51% but increased its standard deviation by 40-68% and so consistently reduced stability. Adding P increased interannual variability and reduced stability without altering mean biomass, while K+ had no general effects. Declines in stability were largest in the most nutrient-limited grasslands, or where nutrients reduced species richness or intensified species synchrony. We show that nutrients can differentially impact the stability of biomass production, with N and P in particular disproportionately increasing its interannual variability.

Linking changes in species composition and biomass in a globally distributed grassland experiment.

Global change drivers, such as anthropogenic nutrient inputs, are increasing globally. Nutrient deposition simultaneously alters plant biodiversity, species composition and ecosystem processes like aboveground biomass production. These changes are underpinned by species extinction, colonisation and shifting relative abundance. Here, we use the Price equation to quantify and link the contributions of species that are lost, gained or that persist to change in aboveground biomass in 59 experimental grassland sites. Under ambient (control) conditions, compositional and biomass turnover was high, and losses (i.e. local extinctions) were balanced by gains (i.e. colonisation). Under fertilisation, the decline in species richness resulted from increased species loss and decreases in species gained. Biomass increase under fertilisation resulted mostly from species that persist and to a lesser extent from species gained. Drivers of ecological change can interact relatively independently with diversity, composition and ecosystem processes and functions such as aboveground biomass due to the individual contributions of species lost, gained or persisting.

Nutrients and consumers impact tree colonization differently from performance in a successional old field.

Successful colonization and growth of trees within herbaceous communities may result from different interactions with the herbaceous community. First, colonizing trees compete against larger, established herbs, while subsequent growth occurs among similarly sized or smaller herbs. This shift from colonization to growth may lead three drivers of community dynamics-nutrients, consumers, and herbaceous diversity-to differentially affect tree colonization and, later, tree performance. Initially, these drivers should favor larger, established herbs, reducing tree colonization. Later, when established trees can better compete with herbs, these drivers should benefit trees and increase their performance. In a 4-year study in a southeastern US old field, we added nutrients to, excluded aboveground consumers from, and manipulated initial richness of, the herbaceous community, and then allowed trees to naturally colonize these communities (from intact seedbanks or as seed rain) and grow. Nutrients and consumers had opposing effects on tree colonization and performance: adding nutrients and excluding consumers reduced tree colonization rate, but later increased the size of established trees (height, basal diameter). Adding nutrients and excluding consumers also restricted tree colonization to earlier years of study, which partially explained the effect of nutrient addition on plant size. Together, this shows differing impacts of nutrients and consumers: factors that initially limited tree colonization also resulted in larger established trees. This suggests that succession of grasslands that are either eutrophied or have diminished consumer pressure may experience lags and pulses in woody encroachment, leading to an extended period of herbaceous dominance followed by accelerated woody growth.

Species loss due to nutrient addition increases with spatial scale in global grasslands.

The effects of altered nutrient supplies and herbivore density on species diversity vary with spatial scale, because coexistence mechanisms are scale dependent. This scale dependence may alter the shape of the species-area relationship (SAR), which can be described by changes in species richness (S) as a power function of the sample area (A): S = cAz , where c and z are constants. We analysed the effects of experimental manipulations of nutrient supply and herbivore density on species richness across a range of scales (0.01-75 m2 ) at 30 grasslands in 10 countries. We found that nutrient addition reduced the number of species that could co-occur locally, indicated by the SAR intercepts (log c), but did not affect the SAR slopes (z). As a result, proportional species loss due to nutrient enrichment was largely unchanged across sampling scales, whereas total species loss increased over threefold across our range of sampling scales.

Fertilized graminoids intensify negative drought effects on grassland productivity.

Droughts can strongly affect grassland productivity and biodiversity, but responses differ widely. Nutrient availability may be a critical factor explaining this variation, but is often ignored in analyses of drought responses. Here, we used a standardized nutrient addition experiment covering 10 European grasslands to test if full-factorial nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium addition affected plant community responses to inter-annual variation in drought stress and to the extreme summer drought of 2018 in Europe. We found that nutrient addition amplified detrimental drought effects on community aboveground biomass production. Drought effects also differed between functional groups, with a negative effect on graminoid but not forb biomass production. Our results imply that eutrophication in grasslands, which promotes dominance of drought-sensitive graminoids over forbs, amplifies detrimental drought effects. In terms of climate change adaptation, agricultural management would benefit from taking into account differential drought impacts on fertilized versus unfertilized grasslands, which differ in ecosystem services they provide to society.

Eutrophication, biodiversity loss, and species invasions modify the relationship between host and parasite richness during host community assembly.

Host and parasite richness are generally positively correlated, but the stability of this relationship in response to global change remains poorly understood. Rapidly changing biotic and abiotic conditions can alter host community assembly, which in turn, can alter parasite transmission. Consequently, if the relationship between host and parasite richness is sensitive to parasite transmission, then changes in host composition under various global change scenarios could strengthen or weaken the relationship between host and parasite richness. To test the hypothesis that host community assembly can alter the relationship between host and parasite richness in response to global change, we experimentally crossed host diversity (biodiversity loss) and resource supply to hosts (eutrophication), then allowed communities to assemble. As previously shown, initial host diversity and resource supply determined the trajectory of host community assembly, altering post-assembly host species richness, richness-independent host phylogenetic diversity, and colonization by exotic host species. Overall, host richness predicted parasite richness, and as predicted, this effect was moderated by exotic abundance-communities dominated by exotic species exhibited a stronger positive relationship between post-assembly host and parasite richness. Ultimately, these results suggest that, by modulating parasite transmission, community assembly can modify the relationship between host and parasite richness. These results thus provide a novel mechanism to explain how global environmental change can generate contingencies in a fundamental ecological relationship-the positive relationship between host and parasite richness.

Invader presence disrupts the stabilizing effect of species richness in plant community recovery after drought.

Higher biodiversity can stabilize the productivity and functioning of grassland communities when subjected to extreme climatic events. The positive biodiversity-stability relationship emerges via increased resistance and/or recovery to these events. However, invader presence might disrupt this diversity-stability relationship by altering biotic interactions. Investigating such disruptions is important given that invasion by non-native species and extreme climatic events are expected to increase in the future due to anthropogenic pressure. Here we present one of the first multisite invader × biodiversity × drought manipulation experiment to examine combined effects of biodiversity and invasion on drought resistance and recovery at three semi-natural grassland sites across Europe. The stability of biomass production to an extreme drought manipulation (100% rainfall reduction; BE: 88 days, BG: 85 days, DE: 76 days) was quantified in field mesocosms with a richness gradient of 1, 3, and 6 species and three invasion treatments (no invader, Lupinus polyphyllus, Senecio inaequidens). Our results suggest that biodiversity stabilized community productivity by increasing the ability of native species to recover from extreme drought events. However, invader presence turned the positive and stabilizing effects of diversity on native species recovery into a neutral relationship. This effect was independent of the two invader's own capacity to recover from an extreme drought event. In summary, we found that invader presence may disrupt how native community interactions lead to stability of ecosystems in response to extreme climatic events. Consequently, the interaction of three global change drivers, climate extremes, diversity decline, and invasive species, may exacerbate their effects on ecosystem functioning.

Past is prologue: host community assembly and the risk of infectious disease over time.

Infectious disease risk is often influenced by host diversity, but the causes are unresolved. Changes in diversity are associated with changes in community structure, particularly during community assembly; therefore, by incorporating change over time, host community assembly may provide a framework to resolve causation. In turn, community assembly can be driven by many processes, including resource enrichment. To test the hypothesis that community assembly causally links host diversity to future disease, we experimentally manipulated host diversity and resource supply to hosts, then allowed communities to assemble for 2 years (surveyed 2012-2014). Initially, host diversity increased disease. Subsequently, host diversity did not directly alter disease. However, host diversity determined the trajectory of host community assembly, altering colonisation by exotic host species and richness-independent host phylogenetic diversity, which together reversed the initial increase in disease. Ultimately, incorporating the temporal dimension of community assembly revealed novel mechanisms linking host diversity to future disease.

A multivariate test of disease risk reveals conditions leading to disease amplification.

Theory predicts that increasing biodiversity will dilute the risk of infectious diseases under certain conditions and will amplify disease risk under others. Yet, few empirical studies demonstrate amplification. This contrast may occur because few studies have considered the multivariate nature of disease risk, which includes richness and abundance of parasites with different transmission modes. By combining a multivariate statistical model developed for biodiversity-ecosystem-multifunctionality with an extensive field manipulation of host (plant) richness, composition and resource supply to hosts, we reveal that (i) host richness alone could not explain most changes in disease risk, and (ii) shifting host composition allowed disease amplification, depending on parasite transmission mode. Specifically, as predicted from theory, the effect of host diversity on parasite abundance differed for microbes (more density-dependent transmission) and insects (more frequency-dependent transmission). Host diversity did not influence microbial parasite abundance, but nearly doubled insect parasite abundance, and this amplification effect was attributable to variation in host composition. Parasite richness was reduced by resource addition, but only in species-rich host communities. Overall, this study demonstrates that multiple drivers, related to both host community and parasite characteristics, can influence disease risk. Furthermore, it provides a framework for evaluating multivariate disease risk in other systems.

Effects of native diversity, soil nutrients, and natural enemies on exotic invasion in experimental plant communities.

Many factors can promote exotic plant success. Three of these factors-greater pressure from natural enemies on natives, increased soil nutrient supply, and low native species richness-may interact during invasions. To test for independent and interactive effects of these drivers, we planted herbaceous perennial communities at two levels of native richness (monocultures and five-species polycultures). We then factorially manipulated soil nutrient supply and access to these communities by aboveground foliar enemies (fungal pathogens and insect herbivores), and allowed natural colonization to proceed for four years. We predicted that nutrient addition would increase exotic success, while enemy exclusion and increasing native richness would reduce exotic success. Additionally, we expected that enemy exclusion would reduce the benefits of nutrient addition to exotic species most in species-poor communities, and that this effect would be weaker in species-rich communities. In total, we found no evidence that nutrient supply, enemy access, and native richness interacted to influence exotic success. Furthermore, native richness had no effect on exotic success. Instead, nutrient addition increased, and enemy exclusion decreased, exotic success independently. As predicted, enemy exclusion reduced exotic success, primarily by slowing the decline in abundance of planted native species. Together, these results demonstrate that multiple drivers of exotic success can act independently within a single system.

Environmental heterogeneity modulates the effect of plant diversity on the spatial variability of grassland biomass.

Plant productivity varies due to environmental heterogeneity, and theory suggests that plant diversity can reduce this variation. While there is strong evidence of diversity effects on temporal variability of productivity, whether this mechanism extends to variability across space remains elusive. Here we determine the relationship between plant diversity and spatial variability of productivity in 83 grasslands, and quantify the effect of experimentally increased spatial heterogeneity in environmental conditions on this relationship. We found that communities with higher plant species richness (alpha and gamma diversity) have lower spatial variability of productivity as reduced abundance of some species can be compensated for by increased abundance of other species. In contrast, high species dissimilarity among local communities (beta diversity) is positively associated with spatial variability of productivity, suggesting that changes in species composition can scale up to affect productivity. Experimentally increased spatial environmental heterogeneity weakens the effect of plant alpha and gamma diversity, and reveals that beta diversity can simultaneously decrease and increase spatial variability of productivity. Our findings unveil the generality of the diversity-stability theory across space, and suggest that reduced local diversity and biotic homogenization can affect the spatial reliability of key ecosystem functions.

Temporal rarity is a better predictor of local extinction risk than spatial rarity.

Spatial rarity is often used to predict extinction risk, but rarity can also occur temporally. Perhaps more relevant in the context of global change is whether a species is core to a community (persistent) or transient (intermittently present), with transient species often susceptible to human activities that reduce niche space. Using 5-12 yr of data on 1,447 plant species from 49 grasslands on five continents, we show that local abundance and species persistence under ambient conditions are both effective predictors of local extinction risk following experimental exclusion of grazers or addition of nutrients; persistence was a more powerful predictor than local abundance. While perturbations increased the risk of exclusion for low persistence and abundance species, transient but abundant species were also highly likely to be excluded from a perturbed plot relative to ambient conditions. Moreover, low persistence and low abundance species that were not excluded from perturbed plots tended to have a modest increase in abundance following perturbance. Last, even core species with high abundances had large decreases in persistence and increased losses in perturbed plots, threatening the long-term stability of these grasslands. Our results demonstrate that expanding the concept of rarity to include temporal dynamics, in addition to local abundance, more effectively predicts extinction risk in response to environmental change than either rarity axis predicts alone.