Core outcome set for surgical trials in gastric cancer (GASTROS study): international patient and healthcare professional consensus.

BACKGROUND: Surgery is the primary treatment that can offer potential cure for gastric cancer, but is associated with significant risks. Identifying optimal surgical approaches should be based on comparing outcomes from well designed trials. Currently, trials report different outcomes, making synthesis of evidence difficult. To address this, the aim of this study was to develop a core outcome set (COS)-a standardized group of outcomes important to key international stakeholders-that should be reported by future trials in this field. METHODS: Stage 1 of the study involved identifying potentially important outcomes from previous trials and a series of patient interviews. Stage 2 involved patients and healthcare professionals prioritizing outcomes using a multilanguage international Delphi survey that informed an international consensus meeting at which the COS was finalized. RESULTS: Some 498 outcomes were identified from previously reported trials and patient interviews, and rationalized into 56 items presented in the Delphi survey. A total of 952 patients, surgeons, and nurses enrolled in round 1 of the survey, and 662 (70 per cent) completed round 2. Following the consensus meeting, eight outcomes were included in the COS: disease-free survival, disease-specific survival, surgery-related death, recurrence, completeness of tumour removal, overall quality of life, nutritional effects, and 'serious' adverse events. CONCLUSION: A COS for surgical trials in gastric cancer has been developed with international patients and healthcare professionals. This is a minimum set of outcomes that is recommended to be used in all future trials in this field to improve trial design and synthesis of evidence.

A core outcome set for pre-eclampsia research: an international consensus development study.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a core outcome set for pre-eclampsia. DESIGN: Consensus development study. SETTING: International. POPULATION: Two hundred and eight-one healthcare professionals, 41 researchers and 110 patients, representing 56 countries, participated. METHODS: Modified Delphi method and Modified Nominal Group Technique. RESULTS: A long-list of 116 potential core outcomes was developed by combining the outcomes reported in 79 pre-eclampsia trials with those derived from thematic analysis of 30 in-depth interviews of women with lived experience of pre-eclampsia. Forty-seven consensus outcomes were identified from the Delphi process following which 14 maternal and eight offspring core outcomes were agreed at the consensus development meeting. Maternal core outcomes: death, eclampsia, stroke, cortical blindness, retinal detachment, pulmonary oedema, acute kidney injury, liver haematoma or rupture, abruption, postpartum haemorrhage, raised liver enzymes, low platelets, admission to intensive care required, and intubation and ventilation. Offspring core outcomes: stillbirth, gestational age at delivery, birthweight, small-for-gestational-age, neonatal mortality, seizures, admission to neonatal unit required and respiratory support. CONCLUSIONS: The core outcome set for pre-eclampsia should underpin future randomised trials and systematic reviews. Such implementation should ensure that future research holds the necessary reach and relevance to inform clinical practice, enhance women's care and improve the outcomes of pregnant women and their babies. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: 281 healthcare professionals, 41 researchers and 110 women have developed #preeclampsia core outcomes @HOPEoutcomes @jamesmnduffy. [Correction added on 29 June 2020, after first online publication: the order has been corrected.].

TREatment of ATopic eczema (TREAT) Registry Taskforce: an international Delphi exercise to identify a core set of domains and domain items for national atopic eczema photo- and systemic therapy registries.

BACKGROUND: Evidence of immunomodulatory therapies to guide clinical management of atopic eczema (AE) is scarce, despite frequent and often off-label use. Patient registries provide valuable evidence for the effects of treatments under real-world conditions that can inform treatment guidelines, give the opportunity for health economic evaluation and the evaluation of quality of care, as well as pharmacogenetic and dynamic research, which cannot be adequately addressed in clinical trials. OBJECTIVES: The TREatment of ATopic eczema (TREAT) Registry Taskforce aims to seek international consensus on a core set of domains and items ('what to measure') for AE research registries, using a Delphi approach. METHODS: Participants from six stakeholder groups were included: doctors, nurses, nonclinical researchers, patients, industry and regulatory body representatives. The eDelphi comprised three sequential online rounds, requesting participants to rate the importance of each proposed domain item. Participants could add domain items to the proposed list in round 1. A final consensus meeting was held to ratify the core set. RESULTS: Participants (n = 479) from 36 countries accessed the eDelphi platform, of whom 86%, 79% and 74% completed rounds 1, 2 and 3, respectively. At the face-to-face consensus meeting attended by 42 participants the final core set was established containing 19 domains with 69 domain items (49 baseline and 20 follow-up items). CONCLUSIONS: This core set of domains and items to be captured by national AE systemic therapy registries will standardize data collection and thereby allow direct comparability across registries and facilitate data pooling between countries. Ultimately, it will provide greater insight into the effectiveness, safety and cost-effectiveness of photo- and systemic immunomodulatory therapies.

Systematic review of outcome measures following chemoradiotherapy for the treatment of anal cancer (CORMAC).

AIM: Six Phase III randomized trials have determined the effectiveness of chemoradiotherapy as primary treatment for anal squamous cell carcinoma (ASCC), but outcomes reported in these trials varied widely, hindering evidence synthesis. To improve reporting in all future trials, we aim to develop a core outcomes set (COS). As the first stage of COS development, we undertook a systematic review to summarize the outcomes reported in studies evaluating chemoradiotherapy for ASCC. METHOD: Systematic literature searches identified studies evaluating radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy for ASCC. Outcomes and accompanying definitions were extracted verbatim and categorized into domains. RESULTS: From 5170 abstracts, we identified 95 eligible studies, reporting 1192 outcomes and 533 unique terms. We collapsed these terms into 86 standardized outcomes and five domains: survival; disease activity; life impact [including quality of life (QoL)]; delivery of care; and toxicity. The most commonly reported domains were survival and disease activity, reported in 74 (86%) and 54 (62%) studies, respectively. No outcome was reported in every publication. Over half (43/86) of the standardized outcome terms were reported in fewer than five studies, and 21 (25%) were reported in a single study only. There was wide variation in definitions of disease-free survival, colostomy-free survival and progression-free survival (PFS). Anal continence was reported in only 35 (41%) studies. CONCLUSION: Outcomes reported in studies evaluating chemoradiotherapy for ASCC were heterogenous and definitions varied widely. Outcomes likely to be important to patients, such as ano-rectal function, toxicity and QoL, have been neglected. A COS for future trials will address these issues.

Outcome reporting across randomised controlled trials evaluating therapeutic interventions for pre-eclampsia.

BACKGROUND: Standardising outcome collection and reporting in pre-eclampsia trials requires an appraisal of current outcome reporting. OBJECTIVES: To map maternal and offspring outcome reporting across randomised trials evaluating therapeutic interventions for pre-eclampsia. SEARCH STRATEGY: Randomised trials were identified by searching bibliographical databases from inception to January 2016. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We systematically extracted and categorised outcome reporting. MAIN RESULTS: Seventy-nine randomised trials, reporting data from 31 615 maternal participants and 28 172 of their offspring, were included. Fifty-five different interventions were evaluated. Included trials reported 119 different outcomes, including 72 maternal outcomes and 47 offspring outcomes. Maternal outcomes were inconsistently reported across included trials; for example, 11 trials (14%) reported maternal mortality, reporting data from 12 422 participants, and 16 trials (20%) reported cardiovascular morbidity, reporting data from 14 963 maternal participants. Forty-three trials (54%) reported fetal outcomes and 23 trials (29%) reported neonatal outcomes. Twenty-eight trials (35%) reported offspring mortality. There was poor reporting of childhood outcomes: six trials (8%) reported neurodevelopmental outcomes. Less than half of included trials reported any relevant information regarding harms for maternal participants and their offspring. CONCLUSIONS: Most randomised trials evaluating interventions for pre-eclampsia are missing information on clinically important outcomes, and in particular have neglected to evaluate efficacy and safety in the offspring of participants. Developing and implementing a minimum data set, known as a core outcome set, in future pre-eclampsia trials could help to address these issues. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Future #preeclampsia research requires a core outcome set to reduce #research waste. @coreoutcomes @jamesmnduffy International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews: CRD42015015529; www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/display_record.aspID=CRD42015015529.

UK Lung Cancer RCT Pilot Screening Trial: baseline findings from the screening arm provide evidence for the potential implementation of lung cancer screening.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer screening using low-dose CT (LDCT) was shown to reduce lung cancer mortality by 20% in the National Lung Screening Trial. METHODS: The pilot UK Lung Cancer Screening (UKLS) is a randomised controlled trial of LDCT screening for lung cancer versus usual care. A population-based questionnaire was used to identify high-risk individuals. CT screen-detected nodules were managed by a pre-specified protocol. Cost effectiveness was modelled with reference to the National Lung Cancer Screening Trial mortality reduction. RESULTS: 247 354 individuals aged 50-75 years were approached; 30.7% expressed an interest, 8729 (11.5%) were eligible and 4055 were randomised, 2028 into the CT arm (1994 underwent a CT). Forty-two participants (2.1%) had confirmed lung cancer, 34 (1.7%) at baseline and 8 (0.4%) at the 12-month scan. 28/42 (66.7%) had stage I disease, 36/42 (85.7%) had stage I or II disease. 35/42 (83.3%) had surgical resection. 536 subjects had nodules greater than 50 mm(3) or 5 mm diameter and 41/536 were found to have lung cancer. One further cancer was detected by follow-up of nodules between 15 and 50 mm(3) at 12 months. The baseline estimate for the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of once-only CT screening, under the UKLS protocol, was £8466 per quality adjusted life year gained (CI £5542 to £12 569). CONCLUSIONS: The UKLS pilot trial demonstrated that it is possible to detect lung cancer at an early stage and deliver potentially curative treatment in over 80% of cases. Health economic analysis suggests that the intervention would be cost effective-this needs to be confirmed using data on observed lung cancer mortality reduction. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 78513845.

Questioning assent: how are children's views included as families make decisions about clinical trials?

BACKGROUND: Assent is used to take children's wishes into account when they are invited into clinical trials, but the concept has attracted considerable criticism. We investigated children's accounts of decision-making with the aim of informing practice in supporting children when invited to join a clinical trial. METHODS: We audio-recorded qualitative, semi-structured interviews with 22 children aged 8-16 years about being invited to take part in a clinical trial. Most children were interviewed with their parents. Analysis of the transcribed interviews examined the content of participants' accounts thematically, whilst also drawing on principles of discourse analysis, which examines how individuals use talk to achieve certain effects or social practices. RESULTS: It was not possible to separate children's knowledge of the clinical trial, or their decision-making processes from that of their parents, with parents taking a substantial mediating role in producing their children's decisions. Decision-making gradually unfolded across time and events and was interwoven within the family context, rather than happening in one moment or in the clinical setting. Whilst children valued their parents' role, a case study of child-parent disagreement indicated how children can struggle to be heard. CONCLUSIONS: Decisions happen within a process of family dynamics, in contrast to ideas of assent that isolate it from this context. Parents have a substantial role in children's decisions, and thus how families come to provide consent. Reflecting this we argue that assent practices need to focus on supporting parents to support their children in learning and deliberating about trials. However, this needs to be accompanied by practitioners being alert to the possibility of divergence in child and parent views and enabling children's perspectives to be heard.

Statistical power of multilevel modelling in dental caries clinical trials: a simulation study.

Outcome data from dental caries clinical trials have a naturally hierarchical structure, with surfaces clustered within teeth, clustered within individuals. Data are often aggregated into the DMF index for each individual, losing tooth- and surface-specific information. If these data are to be analysed by tooth or surface, allowing exploration of effects of interventions on different teeth and surfaces, appropriate methods must be used to adjust for the clustered nature of the data. Multilevel modelling allows analysis of clustered data using individual observations without aggregating data, and has been little used in the field of dental caries. A simulation study was conducted to investigate the performance of multilevel modelling methods and standard caries increment analysis. Data sets were simulated from a three-level binomial distribution based on analysis of a caries clinical trial in Scottish adolescents, with varying sample sizes, treatment effects and random tooth level effects based on trials reported in Cochrane reviews of topical fluoride, and analysed to compare the power of multilevel models and traditional analysis. 40,500 data sets were simulated. Analysis showed that estimated power for the traditional caries increment method was similar to that for multilevel modelling, with more variation in smaller data sets. Multilevel modelling may not allow significant reductions in the number of participants required in a caries clinical trial, compared to the use of traditional analyses, but investigators interested in exploring the effect of their intervention in more detail may wish to consider the application of multilevel modelling to their clinical trial data.

e-Consent in UK academic-led clinical trials: current practice, challenges and the need for more evidence.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, in-person healthcare visits were reduced. Consequently, trial teams needed to consider implementing remote methods for conducting clinical trials, including e-Consent. Although some clinical trials may have implemented e-Consent prior to the pandemic, anecdotes of uptake for this method increased within academic-led trials. When the increased use of this process emerged, representatives from several large academic clinical trial groups within the UK collaborated to discuss ways in which trialists can learn from one another when implementing e-Consent. METHODS: A survey of UKCRC-registered Clinical Trials Units (CTUs) was undertaken in April-June 2021 to understand the implementation of and their views on the use of e-Consent and experiences from the perspectives of systems programmers and quality assurance staff on the use of e-Consent. CTUs not using e-Consent were asked to provide any reasons/barriers (including no suitable trials) and any plans for implementing it in the future. Two events for trialists and patient and public involvement (PPI) representatives were then held to disseminate findings, foster discussion, share experiences and aid in the identification of areas that the academic CTU community felt required more research. RESULTS: Thirty-four (64%) of 53 CTUs responded to the survey, with good geographical representation across the UK. Twenty-one (62%) of the responding CTUs had implemented e-Consent in at least one of their trials, across different types of trials, including CTIMPs (Clinical Trial of Investigational Medicinal Product), ATIMPs (Advanced Therapy Medicinal Products) and non-CTIMPs. One hundred ninety-seven participants attended the two workshops for wide-ranging discussions. CONCLUSION: e-Consent is increasingly used in academic-led trials, yet uncertainties remain amongst trialists, patients and members of the public. Uncertainties include a lack of formal, practical guidance and a lack of evidence to demonstrate optimal or appropriate methods to use. We strongly encourage trialists to continue to share their own experiences of the implementation of e-Consent.

Adverse drug reactions causing admission to a paediatric hospital: a pilot study.

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVE: It is known that adverse drug reactions (ADRs) cause admission to hospital in adults and children. A recent adult study showed that ADRs are an important and frequent cause of hospital admission. The objective of this study is to develop methodology to ascertain the current burden of ADRs through a prospective analysis of all unplanned admissions to a paediatric hospital. METHODS: Prospective observational study over a 2-week period. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: There were 19 admissions to the main hospital wards related to an ADR, giving an estimated incidence of 4%, with the ADR directly leading to the admission in 71% of cases. There were no deaths attributable to ADR. 33% of the reactions were possibly avoidable. The drugs most commonly implicated in causing admissions were anti-neoplastic agents. The most common reactions were neutropenia, vomiting and diarrhoea. The health burden of ADRs in the paediatric population is likely to be significant. This pilot study will be used to inform a much larger prospective study providing more detailed evidence of the burden of ill-health from ADRs in children. This larger study will add to a body of research aiming to identify drug-related problems within children to aid paediatric pharmacovigilance. WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION: This study provides knowledge regarding the methodology to be used for a larger study investigating ADRs in children. The study will allow authors who wish to replicate the study in their own populations (internationally) to avoid some of the pitfalls in planning a large epidemiological study of paediatric ADRs. The study also provides an estimate of the incidence and problem of admissions caused by ADRs in a UK paediatric population.

Using routinely recorded data in a UK RCT: a comparison to standard prospective data collection methods.

BACKGROUND: Routinely recorded data held in electronic health records can be used to inform the conduct of randomised controlled trials (RCTs). However, limitations with access and accuracy have been identified. OBJECTIVE: Using epilepsy as an exemplar condition, we assessed the attributes and agreement of routinely recorded data compared to data collected using case report forms in a UK RCT assessing antiepileptic drug treatments for individuals newly diagnosed with epilepsy. METHODS: The case study RCT is the Standard and New Antiepileptic Drugs II (SANAD II) trial, a pragmatic, UK multicentre RCT assessing the clinical and cost-effectiveness of antiepileptic drugs as treatments for epilepsy. Ninety-eight of 470 eligible participants provided consent for access to routinely recorded secondary care data that were retrieved from NHS Digital Hospital Episode Statistics (N=71) and primary and secondary care data from The Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank (N=27). We assessed data items relevant to the identification of individuals eligible for inclusion in SANAD II, baseline and follow-up visits. The attributes of routinely recorded data were assessed including the degree of missing data. The agreement between routinely recorded data and data collected on case report forms in SANAD II was assessed using calculation of Cohen's kappa for categorical data and construction of Bland-Altman plots for continuous data. RESULTS: There was a significant degree of missing data in the routine record for 15 of the 20 variables assessed, including all clinical variables. Agreement was poor for the majority of comparisons, including the assessments of seizure occurrence and adverse events. For example, only 23/62 (37%) participants had a date of first-ever seizure identified in routine datasets. Agreement was satisfactory for the date of prescription of antiepileptic drugs and episodes of healthcare resource use. CONCLUSIONS: There are currently significant limitations preventing the use of routinely recorded data for participant identification and assessment of clinical outcomes in epilepsy, and potentially other chronic conditions. Further research is urgently required to assess the attributes, agreement, additional benefits, cost-effectiveness and 'optimal mix' of routinely recorded data compared to data collected using standard methods such as case report forms at clinic visits for people with epilepsy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Standard and New Antiepileptic Drugs II (SANAD II (EudraCT No: 2012-001884-64, registered 05/09/2012; ISRCTN Number: ISRCTN30294119 , registered 03/07/2012)).

Effect of the laccase gene CNLAC1, on virulence of Cryptococcus neoformans.

To assess the relationship between melanin production by Cryptococcus neoformans and virulence on a molecular basis, we asked: (a) is CNLAC1, the laccase structural gene of C. neoformans, expressed in vivo?; (b) can mouse virulence be restored to cnlac1 (Mel-) mutants by complementation with CNLAC1?; and (c) will targeted gene deletion of CNLAC1 decrease virulence for mice? Melanin is produced when cryptococcal laccase catalyzes the oxidation of certain aromatic compounds, including L-dopa, to quinones, which then polymerize to melanin. To assess CNLAC1 transcription, RNA was extracted from C. neoformans in cerebrospinal fluid of infected rabbits. Reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction detected CNLAC1 transcript, indicating that laccase may be produced in the infected host. To assess the effect of CNLAC1 deletion on virulence, a Mel- mutant (10S) was obtained by disruption of the 5' end of the gene. After multiple backcrosses with a parental strain to remove unintended genetic defects introduced by the transformation process, a Mel- progeny was tested and found to be much less virulent for mice than a Mel+ progeny. Another Mel- strain (mel2), obtained from J.C. Edman (University of California at San Francisco, CA), produced CNLAC1 transcript but no detectable melanin. Characterization of this mutant revealed a base substitution in CNLAC1 that changed a histidine to tyrosine in a putative copper-binding site. When this base change was introduced into CNLAC1 by site-directed mutagenesis, it no longer transformed mel2 to Mel+, indicating the importance of this histidine in laccase activity. Complementation of a mel2-derived mutant with CNLAC1 restored the Mel+ phenotype and increased virulence. These results support the concept that the CNLAC1 gene product has a role in virulence.

Moving Towards Common Data Elements and Core Outcome Measures in Frailty Research.

With aging populations around the world, frailty is becoming more prevalent increasing the need for health systems and social systems to deliver optimal evidence based care. However, in spite of the growing number of frailty publications, high-quality evidence for decision making is often lacking. Inadequate descriptions of the populations enrolled including frailty severity and frailty conceptualization, lack of use of validated frailty assessment tools, utilization of different frailty instruments between studies, and variation in reported outcomes impairs the ability to interpret, generalize and implement the research findings. The utilization of common data elements (CDEs) and core outcome measures (COMs) in clinical trials is increasingly being adopted to address such concerns. To catalyze the development and use of CDEs and COMs for future frailty studies, the Canadian Frailty Network (www.cfn-nce.ca; CFN), a not-for-profit pan-Canadian nationally-funded research network, convened an international group of experts to examine the issue and plan the path forward. The meeting was structured to allow for an examination of current frailty evidence, ability to learn from other COMs and CDEs initiatives, discussions about specific considerations for frailty COMs and CDEs and finally the identification of the necessary steps for a COMs and CDEs consensus initiative going forward. It was agreed at the onset of the meeting that a statement based on the meeting would be published and herein we report the statement.

Interpreting regulatory trials in epilepsy.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This review discusses the interpretation of regulatory randomized controlled trials of antiepileptic drugs. An ever increasing number of drugs have been licensed, more so for add-on treatment than for monotherapy. Regulatory trials constitute the main body of evidence to inform clinical decisions about their use. Designs of regulatory trials for monotherapy are the most controversial as regulators take different views as to the type of designs that are required, which has implications for interpretation and for the risks to which patients are exposed. FINDINGS: From the perspective of the regulator, the interpretation of placebo controlled add-on trials is straightforward as they have the capacity to show efficacy compared with placebo. These designs do not, however, inform clinical decisions where a choice among drugs is required. For monotherapy the European Medicines Agency will accept head-to-head trials designed to show noninferiority for licensing. The Food and Drug Administration in the USA will not, and requires trials that show superiority. The resulting 'pseudoplacebo' trials expose patients allocated to pseudoplacebo to risks that may be unacceptable. SUMMARY: Regulatory trials continue to have major limitations for informing clinical decisions and this should be addressed.

Space plasma physics: space experiments with particle accelerators.

Electron and plasma beams and neutral gas plumes were injected into the space environment by instruments on Spacelab 1, and various diagnostic measurements including television camera observations were performed. The results yield information on vehicle charging and neutralization, beam-plasma interactions, and ionization enhancement by neutral beam injection.

Efficacy of Oral Encochleated Amphotericin B in a Mouse Model of Cryptococcal Meningoencephalitis.

Cryptococcus neoformans is an encapsulated yeast responsible for approximately a quarter of a million deaths worldwide annually despite therapy, and upwards of 11% of HIV/AIDS-related deaths, rivaling the impact of tuberculosis and malaria. However, the most effective antifungal agent, amphotericin B, requires intravenous delivery and has significant renal and hematopoietic toxicity, making it difficult to utilize, especially in resource-limited settings. The present studies describe a new nanoparticle crystal encapsulated formulation of amphotericin B known as encochleated amphotericin B (CAmB) that seeks to provide an oral formulation that is low in toxicity and cost. Using a 3-day delayed model of murine cryptococcal meningoencephalitis and a large inoculum of a highly virulent strain of serotype A C. neoformans, CAmB, in combination with flucytosine, was found to have efficacy equivalent to parental amphotericin B deoxycholate with flucytosine and superior to oral fluconazole without untoward toxicity. Transport of fluorescent CAmB particles to brain as well as significant brain levels of amphotericin drug was demonstrated in treated mice, and immunological profiles were similar to those of mice treated with conventional amphotericin B. Additional toxicity studies using a standardized rat model showed negligible toxicity after a 28-day treatment schedule. These studies thus offer the potential for an efficacious oral formulation of a known fungicidal drug against intrathecal cryptococcal disease.IMPORTANCECryptococcus neoformans is a significant global fungal pathogen that kills an estimated quarter of a million HIV-infected individuals yearly and has poor outcomes despite therapy. The most effective therapy, amphotericin B, is highly effective in killing the fungus but is available only in highly toxic, intravenous formulations that are unavailable in most of the developing world, where cryptococcal disease in most prevalent. For example, in Ethiopia, reliance on the orally available antifungal fluconazole results in high mortality, even when initiated as preemptive therapy at the time of HIV diagnosis. Thus, alternative agents could result in significant saving of lives. Toward this end, the present work describes the development of a new formulation of amphotericin B (CAmB) that encapsulates the drug as a crystal lipid nanoparticle that facilitates oral absorption and prevents toxicity. Successful oral absorption of the drug was demonstrated in a mouse model that, in combination with the antifungal flucytosine, provided efficacy equal to a parental preparation of amphotericin B plus flucytosine. These studies demonstrate the potential for CAmB in combination with flucytosine to provide an effective oral formulation of a well-known, potent fungicidal drug combination.

Modelling the bilateral symmetry of caries incidence.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Past caries experience has been shown to be the best predictor of the development of caries in the future, and clinical observations suggest that caries develops symmetrically in similar teeth on each side of the mouth. This study investigates whether caries on a given surface can be used as a predictor of future caries on the corresponding surface on the other side of the mouth. METHODS: The data come from a 3-year trial examining the caries-preventive efficacy of chlorhexidine varnish on adolescents. A logistic multilevel model was fitted with 3 levels; participant, tooth and surface. The outcome variable was the development of caries into enamel or dentine, after 3 years. Covariates were tooth position, the caries status of the contralateral surface at baseline, the caries status of the corresponding surface in the opposing jaw at baseline, the caries status of adjacent teeth and the total number of decayed, missing, filled surfaces at baseline. RESULTS: The effect of caries at baseline on the contralateral surface was highly significant (odds ratio = 4.80, 95% CI = 4.38-5.38). The effect of caries at baseline on the corresponding surface in the opposing jaw was also significant, but smaller in magnitude (odds ratio = 1.66, 95% CI = 1.49-1.83). CONCLUSION: Multilevel modelling provides a clinically useful method of estimating the probability of a surface developing caries over a period of time, based on the caries status of the contralateral surface and the corresponding surface in the opposing jaw, while controlling for the natural clustering in tooth surface data.

Risk factors for complication following ERCP; results of a large-scale, prospective multicenter study.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: Analyses of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) complication are often constrained by the number of endpoints observed. This large-scale study aimed to identify the principal risk factors for ERCP complication. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was a prospective multicenter study of ERCP complications, based in five English regions. An exploratory univariable analysis of patients' first recorded procedures identified potentially important patient- and procedure-related factors. For overall complications and pancreatitis, variables significant in univariable analysis were included in multiple regression. RESULTS: A total of 66 centers collected data on 5264 ERCPs, performed on 4561 patients. A therapeutic intervention was attempted in 3447/4561 (76%) of patients as part of their first recorded ERCP. Following first recorded ERCP, 230 patients (5.0%) suffered > or = 1 complication: pancreatitis in 74 (1.6%), cholangitis in 48 (1.0 %), hemorrhage in 40 (0.9%), perforation in 20 (0.4%), and miscellaneous in 54 (1.2%). Significant factors from multiple regression were included in a multi-level analysis, which incorporated variables measured at the level of the endoscopist and hospital. For overall complication, risk factors ( P value, odds ratio [OR], 95% confidence interval [CI]) were: cannulation attempts > 1 ( P = 0.094, OR 1.32, 95% CI 0.95-1.83), precut ( P = 0.033, OR 1.55, 95 % CI 1.04-2.32), and suspected sphincter of Oddi dysfunction ( P = 0.121, OR 1.97, 95 % CI 0.84-4.64). For pancreatitis, risk factors ( Pvalue, OR, and 95 % CI) were: cannulation attempts > 1 ( P = 0.0001, OR 3.14, 95% CI 1.74-5.67), female sex ( P < 0.001, OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.43-3.45), age ( P < 0.002, OR 1.09 per 5 year decrease, 95% CI 1.03-1.15), and performance in a district (as opposed to university) hospital ( P = 0.034, OR 2.41, 95% CI 1.08-5.41). CONCLUSION: Careful patient selection combined with skilled cannulation minimizes complications. Higher-risk procedures should be performed in specialist centers.

A randomised controlled trial examining the longer-term outcomes of standard versus new antiepileptic drugs. The SANAD trial.

OBJECTIVES: To compare clinicians' choice of one of the standard epilepsy drug treatments (carbamazepine or valproate) versus appropriate comparator new drugs. DESIGN: A clinical trial comprising two arms, one comparing new drugs in carbamazepine and the other with valproate. SETTING: A multicentre study recruiting patients with epilepsy from hospital outpatient clinics. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with an adequately documented history of two or more clinically definite unprovoked epileptic seizures within the last year for whom treatment with a single antiepileptic drug represented the best therapeutic option. INTERVENTIONS: Arm A was carbamazepine (CBZ) versus gabapentin (GBP) versus lamotrigine (LTG) versus oxcarbazepine (OXC) versus topiramate (TPM). Arm B valproate (VPS) versus LTG versus TPM. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Time to treatment failure (withdrawal of the randomised drug for reasons of unacceptable adverse events or inadequate seizure control or a combination of the two) and time to achieve a 12-month remission of seizures. Time from randomisation to first seizure, 24-month remission of seizures, incidence of clinically important adverse events, quality of life (QoL) outcomes and health economic outcomes were also considered. RESULTS: Arm A recruited 1721 patients (88% with symptomatic or cryptogenic partial epilepsy and 10% with unclassified epilepsy). Arm B recruited 716 patients (63% with idiopathic generalised epilepsy and 25% with unclassified epilepsy). In Arm A LTG had the lowest incidence of treatment failure and was statistically superior to all drugs for this outcome with the exception of OXC. Some 12% and 8% fewer patients experienced treatment failure on LTG than CBZ, the standard drug, at 1 and 2 years after randomisation, respectively. The superiority of LTG over CBZ was due to its better tolerability but there is satisfactory evidence indicating that LTG is not clinically inferior to CBZ for measures of its efficacy. No consistent differences in QoL outcomes were found between treatment groups. Health economic analysis supported LTG being preferred to CBZ for both cost per seizure avoided and cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained. In Arm B for time to treatment failure, VPS, the standard drug, was preferred to both TPM and LTG, as it was the drug least likely to be associated with treatment failure for inadequate seizure control and was the preferred drug for time to achieving a 12-month remission. QoL assessments did not show any between-treatment differences. The health economic assessment supported the conclusion that VPS should remain the drug of first choice for idiopathic generalised or unclassified epilepsy, although there is a suggestion that TPM is a cost-effective alternative to VPS. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence suggests that LTG may be a clinical and cost-effective alternative to the existing standard drug treatment, CBZ, for patients diagnosed as having partial seizures. For patients with idiopathic generalised epilepsy or difficult to classify epilepsy, VPS remains the clinically most effective drug, although TPM may be a cost-effective alternative for some patients. Three new antiepileptic drugs have recently been licensed in the UK for the treatment of epilepsy (levetiracetam, zonisamide and pregabalin), therefore these drugs should be compared in a similarly designed trial.

Cervical stitch (cerclage) for preventing pregnancy loss: individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Several observational studies have claimed high success rates for cerclage in women with cervical insufficiency. A recent Cochrane review found no conclusive evidence of benefit, although significant heterogeneity was present for some of the important clinical outcomes. OBJECTIVES: We undertook an individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis to examine effect of cerclage on neonatal and maternal outcomes. In an attempt to explain the heterogeneity, we investigated whether obstetric factors including multiple gestation are associated with effectiveness. SEARCH STRATEGY: Search methods described in the original Cochrane review were adopted and updated to December 2005. SELECTION CRITERIA: This IPD systematic review and meta-analysis was of randomised trials comparing cervical cerclage during pregnancy with expectant management or no cerclage in women with confirmed or suspected as having cervical insufficiency. ANALYSIS: Multilevel logistic regression models stratified by trial with random treatment effects were fitted to investigate the impact of obstetric factors and multiple gestation on treatment effect. Primary outcome measures were pregnancy loss or death before discharge from hospital and absence of neonatal morbidity. MAIN RESULTS: The meta-analysis included seven trials and 2091 randomised women. In singleton pregnancies, the reduction in pregnancy loss or death before discharge from hospital following cerclage failed to reach statistical significance (OR 0.81; 95% CI 0.60-1.10). Cerclage was found to have a detrimental effect on the outcome of pregnancy loss or death before discharge from hospital in multiple gestations (OR 5.88; 95% CI 1.14-30.19), although only a small number of multiple pregnancies were included in the analysis. Neither indication for cerclage nor obstetric history was found to have a statistically significant impact on the effect of cerclage. CONCLUSIONS: Cerclage may reduce the risk of pregnancy loss or neonatal death before discharge from hospital in singleton pregnancies thought to be at risk of preterm birth, but further large trials are needed to elucidate the risk-benefit ratio precisely. Cerclage in multiple pregnancies should be avoided. The efficacy of cerclage was not influenced by either indication for cerclage or mother's obstetric history.