Developing machine learning models to predict primary graft dysfunction after lung transplantation.

Primary graft dysfunction (PGD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the first 30 days after lung transplantation. Risk factors for the development of PGD include donor and recipient characteristics, but how multiple variables interact to impact the development of PGD and how clinicians should consider these in making decisions about donor acceptance remain unclear. This was a single-center retrospective cohort study to develop and evaluate machine learning pipelines to predict the development of PGD grade 3 within the first 72 hours of transplantation using donor and recipient variables that are known at the time of donor offer acceptance. Among 576 bilateral lung recipients, 173 (30%) developed PGD grade 3. The cohort underwent a 75% to 25% train-test split, and lasso regression was used to identify 11 variables for model development. A K-nearest neighbor's model showing the best calibration and performance with relatively small confidence intervals was selected as the final predictive model with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.65. Machine learning models can predict the risk for development of PGD grade 3 based on data available at the time of donor offer acceptance. This may improve donor-recipient matching and donor utilization in the future.

Validation of a novel donor lung scoring system based on the updated lung Composite Allocation Score.

Lung transplantation (LTx) continues to have lower rates of long-term graft survival compared with other organs. Additionally, lung utilization rates from brain-dead donors remain substantially lower compared with other solid organs, despite a growing need for LTx and the significant risk of waitlist mortality. This study aims to examine the effects of using a combination of the recently described novel lung donor (LUNDON) acceptability score and the newly adopted recipient lung Composite Allocation Score (CAS) to guide transplantation. We performed a review of nearly 18 000 adult primary lung transplants from 2015-2022 across the US with retroactive calculations of the CAS value. The medium-CAS group (29.6-34.5) had superior 1-year posttransplant survival. Importantly, the combination of high-CAS (> 34.5) recipients with low LUNDON score (≤ 40) donors had the worst survival at 1 year compared with any other combination. Additionally, we constructed a model that predicts 1-year and 3-year survival using the LUNDON acceptability score and CAS values. These results suggest that caution should be exercised when using marginally acceptable donor lungs in high-priority recipients. The use of the LUNDON score with CAS value can potentially guide clinical decision-making for optimal donor-recipient matches for LTx.

Development and validation of the lung donor (LUNDON) acceptability score for pulmonary transplantation.

There is a chronic shortage of donor lungs for pulmonary transplantation due, in part, to low lung utilization rates in the United States. We performed a retrospective cohort study using data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients database (2006-2019) and developed the lung donor (LUNDON) acceptability score. A total of 83 219 brain-dead donors were included and were randomly divided into derivation (n = 58 314, 70%) and validation (n = 24 905, 30%) cohorts. The overall lung acceptance was 27.3% (n = 22 767). Donor factors associated with the lung acceptance were age, maximum creatinine, ratio of arterial partial pressure of oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen, mechanism of death by asphyxiation or drowning, history of cigarette use (≥20 pack-years), history of myocardial infarction, chest x-ray appearance, bloodstream infection, and the occurrence of cardiac arrest after brain death. The prediction model had high discriminatory power (C statistic, 0.891; 95% confidence interval, 0.886-0.895) in the validation cohort. We developed a web-based, user-friendly tool (available at https://sites.wustl.edu/lundon) that provides the predicted probability of donor lung acceptance. LUNDON score was also associated with recipient survival in patients with high lung allocation scores. In conclusion, the multivariable LUNDON score uses readily available donor characteristics to reliably predict lung acceptability. Widespread adoption of this model may standardize lung donor evaluation and improve lung utilization rates.

Different-team procurements: A potential solution for the unintended consequences of change in lung allocation policy.

The new lung allocation policy has led to an increase in distant donors and consequently enhanced logistical burden of procuring organs. Though early single-center studies noted similar outcomes between same-team transplantation (ST, procuring team from transplanting center) and different-team transplantation (DT, procuring team from different center), the efficacy of DT in the contemporary era remains unclear. In this study, we evaluated the trend of DT, rate of transplanting both donor lungs, 1-year graft survival, and risk of Grade 3 primary graft dysfunction (PGD) using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipient (SRTR) database from 2006 to 2018. A total of 21619 patients (DT 2085, 9.7%) with 19837 donors were included. Utilization of DT decreased from 15.9% in 2006 to 8.5% in 2018. Proportions of two-lung donors were similar between the groups, and DT had similar 1-year graft survival as ST for both double (DT, HR 1.108, 95% CI 0.894-1.374) and single lung transplants (DT, HR 1.094, 95% CI 0.931-1.286). Risk of Grade 3 PGD was also similar between ST and DT. Given our results, expanding DT may be a feasible option for improving lung procurement efficiency in the current era, particularly in light of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Pseudomonas aeruginosa and acute rejection independently increase the risk of donor-specific antibodies after lung transplantation.

Factors contributing to donor-specific HLA antibody (DSA) development after lung transplantation have not been systematically evaluated. We hypothesized that the isolation of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in respiratory specimens would increase the risk of DSA development. Our objective was to determine the risk of DSA development associated with the isolation of Pseudomonas aeruginosa after lung transplantation. We conducted a single-center retrospective cohort study of primary lung transplant recipients and examined risk factors for DSA development using Cox regression models. Of 460 recipients, 205 (45%) developed DSA; the majority developed Class II DSA (n = 175, 85%), and 145 of 205 (71%) developed DSA to HLA-DQ alleles. Univariate time-dependent analyses revealed that isolation of Pseudomonas from respiratory specimens, acute cellular rejection, and lymphocytic bronchiolitis are associated with an increased risk of DSA development. In multivariable analyses, Pseudomonas isolation, acute cellular rejection, and lymphocytic bronchiolitis remained independent risk factors for DSA development. Additionally, there was a direct association between the number of positive Pseudomonas cultures and the risk of DSA development. Our findings suggest that pro-inflammatory events including acute cellular rejection, lymphocytic bronchiolitis, and Pseudomonas isolation after transplantation are associated with an increased risk of DSA development.

Rabbit antithymocyte globulin for the treatment of chronic lung allograft dysfunction.

BACKGROUND: Chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD) is the leading cause of death beyond the first year after lung transplantation. Several treatments have been used to prevent the progression or reverse the effects of CLAD. Cytolytic therapy with rabbit antithymocyte globulin (rATG) has previously shown to be a potential option. However, the effect on patients with restrictive allograft syndrome (RAS) versus bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) and the effect of cumulative dosing are unknown. METHODS: The charts of lung transplant patients treated with rATG at Barnes-Jewish Hospital from 2009 to 2016 were retrospectively reviewed. The primary outcome was response to rATG; patients were deemed responders if their FEV1 improved in the 6 months after rATG treatment. Safety endpoints included incidence of serum sickness, cytokine release syndrome, malignancy, and infectious complications. RESULTS: 108 patients were included in this study; 43 (40%) patients were responders who experienced an increase in FEV1 after rATG therapy. No predictors of response to rATG therapy were identified. Serum sickness occurred in 22% of patients, 15% experienced cytokine release syndrome, and 19% developed an infection after therapy. CONCLUSION: 40% of patients with CLAD have an improvement in lung function after treatment with rATG although the improvement was typically minimal.

Acute graft-versus-host disease following lung transplantation in a patient with a novel TERT mutation.

Familial pulmonary fibrosis is associated with loss-of-function mutations in telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) and short telomeres. Interstitial lung diseases have become the leading indication for lung transplantation in the USA, and recent data indicate that pathogenic mutations in telomerase may cause unfavourable outcomes following lung transplantation. Although a rare occurrence, solid organ transplant recipients who develop acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) have very poor survival. This case report describes the detection of a novel mutation in TERT in a patient who had lung transplantation for familial pulmonary fibrosis and died from complications of acute GVHD.

Falsely Elevated Plasma Creatinine Due to an Immunoglobulin M Paraprotein.

The most common method for measuring plasma creatinine is based on its reaction with picric acid. However, enzymatic methods are becoming more popular due to improved specificity. We present a case of falsely elevated plasma creatinine values obtained by an enzymatic method that turned out to be due to a monoclonal immunoglobulin M (IgM) paraprotein. A 63-year-old woman evaluated for lung transplantation had falsely increased plasma creatinine levels (1.54-1.71mg/dL; corresponding to estimated glomerular filtration rates of 32-36 mL/min/1.73m2) as measured by the Roche Creatinine plus enzymatic assay when compared with the picric acid-based procedure and several other enzymatic methods, which gave plasma creatinine values of 0.7 to 0.8mg/dL. Serum protein electrophoresis revealed an IgM κ light chain paraprotein. Removal of high-molecular-weight (>30kDa) proteins by ultrafiltration reduced the patient's plasma creatinine level by the Roche enzymatic method to 0.7mg/dL. Addition of the patient's immunoglobulin fraction to plasma from other patients with normal plasma creatinine levels resulted in values that were increased by 0.58 to 0.62mg/dL. Furthermore, removal of non-IgM immunoglobulins with protein G-coupled beads did not eliminate the interference from the patient's plasma. Taken together, these studies demonstrate that falsely elevated plasma creatinine values by the Roche enzymatic method can be due to an IgM paraprotein.

Evaluation of Enoxaparin Dosing as a Risk Factor for Bleeding in Lung Transplant Recipients.

BACKGROUND: Lung transplant recipients commonly develop complications that lead to anticoagulation. Standard FDA-approved enoxaparin dosing in this population results in a high incidence of above-goal anti-Xa levels, but its association with bleeding remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between enoxaparin dosing and bleeding in lung transplant recipients and assess the relationship between dosing and anti-Xa levels. METHODS: We conducted a single-center retrospective cohort study of adult lung transplant recipients who received therapeutic enoxaparin between 2000 and 2012 at a tertiary academic center. We dichotomized enoxaparin dosing regimens into standard dose (FDA-approved doses with a 10% rounding margin) and reduced dose. Clinicians ordered anti-Xa levels as deemed clinically appropriate. The primary outcome was major bleeding or clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding. RESULTS: Of 222 patients treated with enoxaparin, 33 (14.9%) had bleeding events, of which half (17/33) were major. Bleeding occurred in 25/146 (17.1%) patients who received standard-dose enoxaparin versus 8/76 (10.5%) patients who received reduced-dose enoxaparin (P = 0.190). Multiple logistic regression demonstrated an independent association between standard-dose enoxaparin and bleeding, after adjusting for confounders (adjusted odds ratio = 3.04; 95% CI = 1.14-8.10). The median enoxaparin dose in patients with above-goal versus at-goal anti-Xa levels was 0.89 versus 0.76 mg/kg every 12 hours; P = 0.006. However, doses yielding at-goal anti-Xa levels had an interquartile range of 0.67 to 0.90 mg/kg, which overlapped with doses yielding above- and below-goal anti-Xa levels. CONCLUSIONS: Enoxaparin dose reduction and anti-Xa level monitoring can improve drug safety and facilitate individualized dose optimization in lung transplant recipients.

A Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial of De Novo Belatacept-based Immunosuppression After Lung Transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD) is the leading cause of death beyond the first year after lung transplantation. The development of donor-specific antibodies (DSA) is a recognized risk factor for CLAD. Based on experience in kidney transplantation, we hypothesized that belatacept, a selective T-cell costimulatory blocker, would reduce the incidence of DSA after lung transplantation, which may ameliorate the risk of CLAD. METHODS: We conducted a pilot randomized controlled trial (RCT) at 2 sites to assess the feasibility and inform the design of a large-scale RCT. All participants were treated with rabbit antithymocyte globulin for induction immunosuppression. Participants in the control arm were treated with tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and prednisone, and participants in the belatacept arm were treated with tacrolimus, belatacept, and prednisone through day 89 after transplant then converted to belatacept, mycophenolate mofetil, and prednisone for the remainder of year 1. RESULTS: After randomizing 27 participants, 3 in the belatacept arm died compared with none in the control arm. As a result, we stopped enrollment and treatment with belatacept, and all participants were treated with standard-of-care immunosuppression. Overall, 6 participants in the belatacept arm died compared with none in the control arm (log rank P = 0.008). We did not observe any differences in the incidence of DSA, acute cellular rejection, antibody-mediated rejection, CLAD, or infections between the 2 groups. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the investigational regimen used in this pilot RCT is associated with increased mortality after lung transplantation.

Use of a novel donor lung scoring system as a tool for increasing lung recovery for transplantation.

BACKGROUND: There is a critical shortage of donor lungs for transplantation. We previously developed a parsimonious, highly discriminatory 9-variable Lung Donor (LUNDON) acceptability score. Here we assessed the utility of this score as a tool for improving lung recovery rates for transplantation. METHODS: We examined all brain-dead donors between 2014 and 2020 from 3 US organ procurement organizations and validated the score's predictive performance. We examined the trajectory of donors with low (<40) and high (>60) initial LUNDON scores, their corresponding lung recovery rates, factors contributing to score improvement using multivariable regression models, and 1-year post-transplant recipient survival. RESULTS: Overall lung recovery was 32.4% (1410 of 4351). Validation of the LUNDON score in our cohort revealed a C statistic of 0.904 and required intercept calibration. Low initial LUNDON donors that improved to a high final score had an increase in lung recovery rate from 29.3% (1100 of 3765) to 86.8% (441 of 508), associated with lower body mass index, management in a specialized donor care facility (SDCF), and more bronchoscopies. Donors with high initial and final LUNDON scores had a lung recovery rate of 85.2% (98 of 115), associated with shorter length of hospital stay. One-year survival was similar in recipients of low-to-high versus high-to-high LUNDON score donors (0.89 vs 0.84; P = .2). CONCLUSIONS: The LUNDON score performs well as a predictor of lung recovery in a contemporary cohort but may require organ procurement organization-specific calibration. SDCF care, increasing use of bronchoscopy, and decreasing the time from brain death to organ procurement may improve lung utilization. The LUNDON score can be used to guide donor management to expand the donor pool.

Immunosuppression: what's standard and what's new?

Lung transplantation is the ultimate treatment option for patients with end-stage lung disease. Chronic rejection, in the form of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome, and noncytomegalovirus infections are the major causes of morbidity and mortality beyond the first year after transplantation. Most lung transplant recipients are treated lifelong with a three-drug immunosuppression regimen consisting of a calcineurin inhibitor, an antimetabolite, and low-dose corticosteroids. However, induction and maintenance immunosuppression strategies vary widely between centers, and a consensus on the ideal management of this patient population remains elusive. Over the past 20 years, several studies comparing the calcineurin inhibitors cyclosporine and tacrolimus and other studies comparing the antimetabolites azathioprine and mycophenolate mofetil have been performed. Additionally, the role of mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) inhibitors in the treatment of lung transplant recipients and the utility of azithromycin to treat and prevent bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome are areas of active investigation. This review discusses induction and traditional maintenance immunosuppressive agents and regimens and the evidence that exists to help guide therapy. Newer research involving the use of mTOR inhibitors in place of calcineurin inhibitors or antimetabolites and azithromycin for the treatment and prevention of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome is also explored.

Pulmonary Carcinoid Tumorlet in the Explanted Lungs for Lung Transplantation: A Case Series of 15 Patients.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary carcinoid tumorlet (PCT) is defined as small proliferation of neuroendocrine cells that invade the adjacent basement membrane. It is often associated with chronic pulmonary inflammatory processes. However, the characteristics of PCT in end-stage lung diseases remain unclear. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of the explanted lungs after transplantation at our institution between January 1999 and October 2020. Patients who underwent re-transplantation were excluded. RESULTS: Pulmonary carcinoid tumorlet was incidentally discovered in the explanted lungs from 15 patients (1.1%) out of 1367 lung transplants performed during the study period. Nine patients (60.0 %) were women, with a median age of 59 years (IQR: 57-62) at transplant. Underlying pulmonary indications for lung transplantation were chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (9/15, 60.0%), interstitial lung disease (2/15, 13.0%), pulmonary vascular disease (2/15, 13.0%), alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (1/15, 7.0%), and bronchiectasis (1/15, 7.0%). Of the patients who underwent bilateral lung transplantation (13/15, 86.7%), PCT was found in the right lung in 10 patients (10/13, 76.9%). Thirteen patients had one lesion, 1 patient had 2 lesions and 1 patient had multiple lesions. CONCLUSION: Our study shows that PCT is generally uncommon, but when it occurs, it occurs more frequently on the right side and in female patients with end-stage pulmonary disease. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease may be a predisposing factor for developing PCT.

Characteristics of donor lungs declined on site and impact of lung allocation policy change.

OBJECTIVE: National and institutional data suggest an increase in organ discard rate (donor lungs procured but not implanted) after a new lung allocation policy was introduced in 2017. However, this measure does not include on-site decline rate (donor lungs declined intraoperatively). The objective of this study is to examine the impact of the allocation policy change on on-site decline. METHODS: We used a Washington University (WU) and our local organ procurement organization (Mid-America Transplant [MTS]) database to abstract data on all accepted lung offers from 2014 to 2021. An on-site decline was defined as an event in which the procuring team declined the organs intraoperatively, and the lungs were not procured. Logistic regression models were used to investigate potentially modifiable reasons for decline. RESULTS: The overall study cohort comprised 876 accepted lung offers, of which 471 donors were at MTS with WU or others as the accepting center and 405 at other organ procurement organizations with WU as the accepting center. At MTS, the on-site decline rate increased from 4.6% to 10.8% (P = .01) after the policy change. Given the greater likelihood of non-local organ placement and longer travel distance after policy change, the estimated cost of each on-site decline increased from $5727 to $9700. In the overall group, latest partial pressure of oxygen (odds ratio [OR], 0.993; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.989-0.997), chest trauma (OR, 2.474; CI, 1.018-6.010), chest radiograph abnormality (OR, 2.902; CI, 1.289-6.532), and bronchoscopy abnormality (OR, 3.654; CI, 1.813-7.365) were associated with on-site decline, although lung allocation policy era was unassociated (P = .22). CONCLUSIONS: We found that nearly 8% of accepted lungs are declined on site. Several donor factors were associated with on-site decline, although lung allocation policy change did not have a consistent impact on on-site decline.

Utilizing computed tomography volumetry for size matching prior to lung transplantation: a case series.

Background: Appropriate size matching between donor and recipient is critical for successful pulmonary transplantation. Although surrogate measurements such as height and gender are often utilized to approximate predicted lung volume, these methods provide only a gross estimation with wide variability and poor predictive value. Case Description: A single center exploratory study was conducted in which four patients underwent lung transplantation (LT) with pre-operative computed tomography (CT) volumetry obtained in both the donor and recipient to facilitate decision making regarding organ size and suitability. In four cases in which CT volumetry was used, the lung volumes calculated using surrogate measurements significantly overestimated both donor and recipient lung volumes quantified by CT volumetric analysis. All recipients underwent successful LT without necessary graft downsizing. Conclusions: This is an initial report of prospectively utilizing CT volumetry as an adjunct to decision-making regarding suitability of donor lungs. In these cases, CT volumetry facilitated the confident acceptance of donor lungs that were initially predicted to be oversized based on other clinical measures.

Tocilizumab for antibody-mediated rejection treatment in lung transplantation.

Tocilizumab (TCZ), an IL-6 inhibitor, has shown promise in the treatment of donor-specific antibodies (DSA) and chronic antibody-mediated rejection (AMR) in renal transplant recipients. However, its use in lung transplantation has not been described. This retrospective case-control study compared AMR treatments containing TCZ in 9 bilateral lung transplant recipients to 18 patients treated for AMR without TCZ. Treatment with TCZ resulted in more clearance of DSA, lower recurrence of DSA, lower incidence of new DSA, and lower rates of graft failure when compared to those treated for AMR without TCZ. The incidence of infusion reactions, elevation in transaminases, and infections were similar between the 2 groups. These data support a role for TCZ in pulmonary AMR and establish preliminary evidence to design a randomized controlled trial of IL-6 inhibition for the management of AMR.

Acute Interstitial Pneumonia (Hamman-Rich Syndrome) in Lung Transplantation: A Case Series.

BACKGROUND: Acute interstitial pneumonia (AIP), also known as Hamman-Rich syndrome, is a rare and rapidly progressive idiopathic interstitial lung disease with a high mortality rate. Treatment is limited to supportive care and empirical high-dose steroids; however, outcomes are generally poor. There are few reports of lung transplantation (LTx) in patients with AIP. METHODS: We retrospectively identified patients with AIP among those who underwent LTx at our center between January 2008 and December 2020. RESULTS: During the study period, 4 patients with AIP underwent bilateral LTx: 3 men and 1 woman, between 30 and 57 years of age. The lung allocation score ranged between 71 and 89. Of the 4 patients, 2 needed extracorporeal membrane oxygenation and mechanical ventilation (MV) and 1 needed MV preoperatively. Time of onset to transplant ranged from 1 to 3 months. None of the patients had primary graft dysfunction after LTx; 2 had acute cellular rejection and 1 had chronic lung allograft dysfunction. The 4 patients are alive with survival ranging between 1 and 12 years after LTx. CONCLUSION: AIP should be considered in patients with acute respiratory failure without a clear etiology. Our study showed that LTx led to good outcomes and should be considered as a treatment option in appropriate candidates.