Comparison of influenza disease burden in older populations of Hong Kong and Brisbane: the impact of influenza and pneumococcal vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Influenza and pneumococcal vaccine uptake in the older population aged 65 years or over of Hong Kong dramatically increased since the 2003 SARS outbreak. This study is aimed to evaluate the impact of increased coverage of influenza and pneumococcal vaccines by comparing the change of disease burden in the older population of Hong Kong, with the burden in the older population of Brisbane with relatively high vaccine coverage in the past fifteen years. METHODS: Time series segmented regression models were applied to weekly numbers of cause-specific mortality or hospitalization of Hong Kong and Brisbane. Annual excess rates of mortality or hospitalization associated with influenza in the older population were estimated for the pre-SARS (reference period), post-SARS and post-pandemic period, respectively. The rate ratios (RRs) between these periods were also calculated to assess the relative change of disease burden. RESULTS: Compared to the pre-SARS period, excess rates of mortality associated with influenza during the post-SARS period in Hong Kong decreased for cardiorespiratory diseases (RR = 0.90, 95% CI 0.80, 1.01), stroke (RR = 0.74, 95% CI 0.50, 1.09), and ischemic heart diseases (RR = 0.45, 95% CI 0.34, 0.58). The corresponding RRs in Brisbane were 0.79 (95% CI 0.54, 1.15), 0.33 (0.13, 0.80), and 1.09 (0.62, 1.90), respectively. Only the mortality of ischemic heart diseases showed a greater reduction in Hong Kong than in Brisbane. During the post-pandemic period, excess rates of all-cause mortality increased in Hong Kong, but to a lesser extent than in Brisbane (RR = 1.41 vs 2.39). CONCLUSION: A relative decrease (or less of an increase) of influenza disease burden was observed in the older population of Hong Kong after increased coverage of influenza and pneumococcal vaccines in this population, as compared to those of Brisbane where vaccination rates remained stable. The lack of significant findings in some disease categories highlights the challenges of evaluating the benefits of vaccination at the population level.

Seasonal temperature variability and emergency hospital admissions for respiratory diseases: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Climate change increases global mean temperature and changes short-term (eg, diurnal) and long-term (eg, intraseasonal) temperature variability. Numerous studies have shown that mean temperature and short-term temperature variability are both associated with increased respiratory morbidity or mortality. However, data on the impact of long-term temperature variability are sparse. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess the association of intraseasonal temperature variability with respiratory disease hospitalisations among elders. METHODS: We ascertained the first occurrence of emergency hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in a prospective Chinese elderly cohort of 66 820 older people (≥65 years) with 10-13 years of follow-up. We used an ordinary kriging method based on 22 weather monitoring stations in Hong Kong to spatially interpolate daily ambient temperature for each participant's residential address. Seasonal temperature variability was defined as the SD of daily mean summer (June-August) or winter (December-February) temperatures. We applied Cox proportional hazards regression with time-varying exposure of seasonal temperature variability to respiratory admissions. RESULTS: During the follow-up time, we ascertained 12 689 cases of incident respiratory diseases, of which 6672 were pneumonia and 3075 were COPD. The HRs per 1°C increase in wintertime temperature variability were 1.20 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.32), 1.15 (1.01 to 1.31) and 1.41 (1.15 to 1.71) for total respiratory diseases, pneumonia and COPD, respectively. The associations were not statistically significant for summertime temperature variability. CONCLUSION: Wintertime temperature variability was associated with higher risk of incident respiratory diseases.

Different responses of influenza epidemic to weather factors among Shanghai, Hong Kong, and British Columbia.

Weather factors have long been considered as key sources for regional heterogeneity of influenza seasonal patterns. As influenza peaks coincide with both high and low temperature in subtropical cities, weather factors may nonlinearly or interactively affect influenza activity. This study aims to assess the nonlinear and interactive effects of weather factors with influenza activity and compare the responses of influenza epidemic to weather factors in two subtropical regions of southern China (Shanghai and Hong Kong) and one temperate province of Canada (British Columbia). Weekly data on influenza activity and weather factors (i.e., mean temperature and relative humidity (RH)) were obtained from pertinent government departments for the three regions. Absolute humidity (AH) was measured by vapor pressure (VP), which could be converted from temperature and RH. Generalized additive models were used to assess the exposure-response relationship between weather factors and influenza virus activity. Interactions of weather factors were further assessed by bivariate response models and stratification analyses. The exposure-response curves of temperature and VP, but not RH, were consistent among three regions/cities. Bivariate response model revealed a significant interactive effect between temperature (or VP) and RH (P < 0.05). Influenza peaked at low temperature or high temperature with high RH. Temperature and VP are important weather factors in developing a universal model to explain seasonal outbreaks of influenza. However, further research is needed to assess the association between weather factors and influenza activity in a wider context of social and environmental conditions.

Healthcare seeking behavior of patients with influenza like illness: comparison of the summer and winter influenza epidemics.

BACKGROUND: Influenza often causes winter and summer epidemics in subtropical regions, but few studies have investigated the difference in healthcare seeking behavior of patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) between these two epidemics. METHODS: Household telephone surveys were conducted using random digit dialing in Hong Kong during July-August 2014 and March-April 2015. One adult from each household was interviewed for ILI symptoms and associated healthcare seeking behaviour of themselves and one child in the household (if any), during the preceding 30 days. Healthcare seeking behavior of respondents with self-reported ILI was compared between summer and winter influenza. Logistic regression was used to explore the factors associated with healthcare seeking behavior. RESULTS: Among 516 and 539 adult respondents in the summer and winter surveys, 22.6 and 38.0 % reported ILI symptoms, and 40.9 and 46.8 % of them sought medical care, respectively. There was no significant difference in healthcare seeking behavior between the summer and winter epidemics, except a higher proportion of self-medication in summer in the adult respondents. Among 155 and 182 children reported by the adults in both surveys, the proportion of self-reported ILI was 32.9 and 40.1 % in the summer and winter surveys, respectively. Of these children, 47.1 and 56.2 % were brought for medical consultation in summer and winter, respectively. Women, adults with diabetes and those with symptoms of cough, shortness of breath, and runny nose were more likely to seek medical consultations for ILI symptoms. The factors associated with seeking medical consultations in children with ILI symptoms included being female, age under 10 years, and with symptoms of sore throat or vomiting. Those older than 60 years were less likely to self-medicate, whereas regular smokers and those with symptom of sore throat were more likely to do so. CONCLUSION: Healthcare seeking behavior of the general public was not significantly different between these two epidemics. However ILI was associated with increased healthcare utilization in both winter and summer epidemics in Hong Kong.

The influence of pre-existing health conditions on short-term mortality risks of temperature: Evidence from a prospective Chinese elderly cohort in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: Both cold and hot temperatures are associated with adverse health outcomes. Less is known about the role of pre-existing medical conditions to confer individual's susceptibility to temperature extremes. METHODS: We studied 66,820 subjects aged ≥65 who were enrolled and interviewed in all the 18 Elderly Health Centers of Department of Health, Hong Kong from 1998 to 2001, and followed up for 10-13 years. The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) combined with a nested case-control study design was applied to estimate the nonlinear and delayed effects of cold or hot temperature on all natural mortality among subjects with different pre-existing diseases. RESULTS: The relative risk of all natural mortality associated with a decrease of temperature from 25th percentile (19.5°C) to 1st percentile (11.3°C) over 0-21 lag days for participants who reported to have an active disease at the baseline was 2.21 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19, 4.10) for diabetes mellitus (DM), 1.59 (1.12, 2.26) for circulatory system diseases (CSD), and 1.23 (0.53, 2.84) for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), whereas 1.04 (0.59, 1.85) for non-disease group (NDG). Compared with NDG, elders with COPD had excess risk of mortality associated with thermal stress attributable to hot temperature, while elders with DM and CSD were vulnerable to both hot and cold temperatures. CONCLUSIONS: Elders with pre-existing health conditions were more vulnerable to excess mortality risk to hot and/or cold temperature. Preventative measures should target on elders with chronic health problems.

The smoke-free legislation in Hong Kong: its impact on mortality.

OBJECTIVES: To examine trends in deaths for conditions associated with secondhand smoke exposure over the years prior to and following the implementation of a smoke-free policy in Hong Kong. DESIGN: Time-series study. SETTING: Death registration data from Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) Government Census and Statistics Department. PARTICIPANTS: All deaths registered from 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2011. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Deaths for conditions associated with passive smoking include cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease and other causes. RESULTS: There was a decline in the annual proportional change for ischaemic heart disease (IHD), acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and CVD mortality in the year after the intervention for all ages and those aged 65 years or older. There were also clear declines in the cool season peaks for these three conditions in the first postintervention year. There was a further drop in the cool season peak for AMI among all ages in the year after the exemptions ceased. No declines in annual proportional change or changes in seasonal peaks of mortality were found for any of the control conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The findings in this study add to the evidence base, as summarised in the Surgeon General's report, extending the impact of effective smoke-free legislation to those aged 65 years or older and to cerebrovascular events in younger age groups. They also reinforced the need for comprehensive, enforced and effective smoke-free laws if the full extent of the health gains are to be achieved.

Who is more vulnerable to death from extremely cold temperatures? A case-only approach in Hong Kong with a temperate climate.

The short-term effects of ambient cold temperature on mortality have been well documented in the literature worldwide. However, less is known about which subpopulations are more vulnerable to death related to extreme cold. We aimed to examine the personal characteristics and underlying causes of death that modified the association between extreme cold and mortality in a case-only approach. Individual information of 197,680 deaths of natural causes, daily temperature, and air pollution concentrations in cool season (November-April) during 2002-2011 in Hong Kong were collected. Extreme cold was defined as those days with preceding week with a daily maximum temperature at or less than the 1st percentile of its distribution. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the effects of modification, further controlling for age, seasonal pattern, and air pollution. Sensitivity analyses were conducted by using the 5th percentile as cutoff point to define the extreme cold. Subjects with age of 85 and older were more vulnerable to extreme cold, with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.33 (95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.22-1.45). The greater risk of extreme cold-related mortality was observed for total cardiorespiratory diseases and several specific causes including hypertensive diseases, stroke, congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and pneumonia. Hypertensive diseases exhibited the greatest vulnerability to extreme cold exposure, with an OR of 1.37 (95 % CI, 1.13-1.65). Sensitivity analyses showed the robustness of these effect modifications. This evidence on which subpopulations are vulnerable to the adverse effects of extreme cold is important to inform public health measures to minimize those effects.

Age and Sex Differences in Rates of Influenza-Associated Hospitalizations in Hong Kong.

Few studies have explored age and sex differences in the disease burden of influenza, although men and women probably differ in their susceptibility to influenza infections. In this study, quasi-Poisson regression models were applied to weekly age- and sex-specific hospitalization numbers of pneumonia and influenza cases in the Hong Kong SAR, People's Republic of China, from 2004 to 2010. Age and sex differences were assessed by age- and sex-specific rates of excess hospitalization for influenza A subtypes A(H1N1), A(H3N2), and A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza B, respectively. We found that, in children younger than 18 years, boys had a higher excess hospitalization rate than girls, with the male-to-female ratio of excess rate (MFR) ranging from 1.1 to 2.4. MFRs of hospitalization associated with different types/subtypes were less than 1.0 for adults younger than 40 years except for A(H3N2) (MFR = 1.6), while all the MFRs were equal to or higher than 1.0 in adults aged 40 years or more except for A(H1N1)pdm09 in elderly persons aged 65 years or more (MFR = 0.9). No MFR was found to be statistically significant (P < 0.05) for hospitalizations associated with influenza type/subtype. There is some limited evidence on age and sex differences in hospitalization associated with influenza in the subtropical city of Hong Kong.

Milk consumption in relation to incidence of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in 48 countries/regions.

BACKGROUND: Decreasing trends of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) incidence have been consistently reported in endemic populations but the etiology of NPC remains unclear. The objective of our study was to assess the international and local (Hong Kong) correlations of milk and dairy products per capita consumption with NPC incidence. METHODS: We conducted an ecological study in 48 countries/regions. Age standardized incidence rates of NPC were obtained from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents. Dairy product consumption and Human Development Index were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the United Nations Development Programme. Spearman correlation, multivariate analysis and time-lagged analysis were performed. RESULTS: The negative correlations between milk consumption and decreased age standardized incidence rates of NPC were observed in the 48 countries/regions adjusting for Human Development Index in endemic countries/regions. In Hong Kong, multivariate analysis, after adjusting for other potential confounders, including salted fish, cigarette, vegetable consumption and socioeconomic status, showed consistently negative and significant correlations between milk consumption and NPC incidence (The strongest coefficient (ß) was observed at 10-year lag in males [ß = -0.439; P < 0.01] and in females [ß = -0.258; P < 0.01]). CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed the correlations on milk consumption per capita and against lower risk of NPC in 48 countries/regions and in Hong Kong. These hypothesis-generating results could support further studies on individual exposures and the disease.

Hospitalization risk of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic cases in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: Reliable assessment for the severity of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza is critical for evaluation of vaccination strategies for future pandemics. This study aims to estimate the age-specific hospitalization risks of the 2009 pandemic cases during the first wave in Hong Kong, by combining the findings from the serology and disease burden studies. METHODS: Excess hospitalization rates associated with the pandemic H1N1 were estimated from Poisson regression models fitted to weekly total numbers of non-accidental hospitalization from 2005 to 2010. Age-specific infection-hospitalization risks were calculated as excess hospitalization rates divided by the attack rates in the corresponding age group, which were estimated from serology studies previously conducted in Hong Kong. RESULTS: Excess hospitalization rate associated with pandemic H1N1 was highest in the 0-4 age group (881.3 per 100,000 population), followed by the 5-14, 60+, 15-29, 50-59, 30-39 and 40-49 age groups. The hospitalization risk of the infected cases (i.e. infection-hospitalization risk) was found highest in the 60+ age group and lowest in the 15-29 age group, with the estimates of 17.5% and 0.7%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: People aged 60 or over had a relatively high infection-hospitalization risk during the first wave of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, despite of a low attack rate in this age group. The findings support the policy of listing older people as the priority group for pandemic vaccination.

Obesity and influenza associated mortality: evidence from an elderly cohort in Hong Kong.

OBJECTIVE: Obesity was not identified as a risk factor for influenza until the recent 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Based on a cohort of 66,820 subjects aged 65 years and over with the follow-up period from July 1998 to December 2010 in Hong Kong, we assessed the modifying effect of obesity on mortality risks specifically attributable to influenza infections (termed as "influenza associated mortality risks"). METHODS: A Cox proportional model with time dependent covariates was adopted to assess the hazard ratio of mortality in each obesity group when influenza activity increased 10% in the community. RESULTS: Hazard ratio of influenza-associated all-cause mortality was 1.081 (95% confidence interval 1.013, 1.154), 1.047 (1.012, 1.084), 0.981 (0.936, 1.028), 1.018 (0.980, 1.058) and 1.062 (0.972, 1.162) in the underweight, normal, overweight, moderate obesity and severe obesity groups, respectively. A similar U shape pattern across the obesity groups was also observed in influenza associated mortality risks of respiratory diseases, pneumonia and influenza. This pattern was more evident among ever smokers, although the influenza effect estimates in each obesity group had overlapping confidence intervals. CONCLUSION: There is some but limited evidence to suggest that underweight and obesity were associated with higher mortality risks of influenza in old population.

Meta-analysis of adverse health effects due to air pollution in Chinese populations.

BACKGROUND: Pooled estimates of air pollution health effects are important drivers of environmental risk communications and political willingness. In China, there is a lack of review studies to provide such estimates for health impact assessments. METHODS: We systematically searched the MEDLINE database using keywords of 80 major Chinese cities in Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan on 30 June 2012, yielding 350 abstracts with 48 non-duplicated reports either in English or Chinese after screening. We pooled the relative risks (RR) per 10 µg/m3 of particulate matter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and ozone (O3). RESULTS: For short-term effects, the pooled RR (p<0.05) ranges were: 1.0031 (PM10) to 1.0140 (NO2) for all-cause mortality, 1.0034 (cardiopulmonary, PM10) to 1.0235 (influenza and pneumonia, SO2) for 9 specific-causes mortality, 1.0021 (cardiovascular, PM10) to 1.0162 (asthma, O3) for 5 specific-causes hospital admissions. For birth outcomes, the RR (p<0.05) ranged from 1.0051 (stillbirth, O3) to 1.1189 (preterm-birth, SO2) and for long-term effect on mortality from 1.0150 (respiratory, SO2) to 1.0297 (respiratory, NO2). Publication bias was absent (Egger test: p=0.326 to 0.624). Annual PM10 and NO2 concentrations were inversely associated with RR of mortality (p=0.017-0.028). CONCLUSIONS: Evidence on short-term effects of air pollution is consistent and sufficient for health impact assessment but that on long-term effects is still insufficient.

Quantifying the burden of disease due to premature mortality in Hong Kong using standard expected years of life lost.

BACKGROUND: To complement available information on mortality in a population Standard Expected Years of Life Lost (SEYLL), an indicator of premature mortality, is increasingly used to calculate the mortality-associated disease burden. SEYLL consider the age at death and therefore allow a more accurate view on mortality patterns as compared to routinely used measures (e.g. death counts). This study provides a comprehensive assessment of disease and injury SEYLL for Hong Kong in 2010. METHODS: To estimate the SEYLL, life-expectancy at birth was set according to the 2004 Global Burden of Disease study at 82.5 and 80 years for females and males, respectively. Cause of death data for 2010 were corrected for misclassification of cardiovascular and cancer causes. In addition to the baseline estimates, scenario analyses were performed using alternative assumptions on life-expectancy (Hong Kong standard life-expectancy), time-discounting and age-weighting. To estimate a trend of premature mortality a time-series analysis from 2001 to 2010 was conducted. RESULTS: In 2010 524,706.5 years were lost due to premature death in Hong Kong with 58.3% of the SEYLL attributable to male deaths. The three overall leading single causes of SEYLL were "trachea, bronchus and lung cancers", "ischaemic heart disease" and "lower respiratory infections" together accounting for about 29% of the overall SEYLL. Further, self-inflicted injuries (5.6%; ranked 5) and liver cancer (4.9%; ranked 7) were identified as important causes not adequately captured by classical mortality measures. Scenario analyses highlighted that by using a 3% time-discount rate and non-uniform age-weights the SEYLL dropped by 51.6%. Using Hong Kong's standard life-expectancy values resulted in an overall increase of SEYLL by 10.8% as compared to the baseline SEYLL. Time-series analysis indicates an overall increase of SEYLL by 6.4%. In particular, group I (communicable, maternal, perinatal and nutritional) conditions showed highest increases with SEYLL-rates per 100,000 in 2010 being 1.4 times higher than 2001. CONCLUSIONS: The study stresses the mortality impact of diseases and injuries that occur in earlier stages of life and thus presents the SEYLL measure as a more sensitive indicator compared to classical mortality indicators. SEYLL provide useful additional information and supplement available death statistics.

Short-term exposure to sulfur dioxide and daily mortality in 17 Chinese cities: the China air pollution and health effects study (CAPES).

Sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) is a major air pollutant and has significant impacts upon human health. Few multi-city studies in Asia have examined the acute health effects of SO(2). As part of the China Air Pollution and Health Effects Study (CAPES), this study aimed at investigating the short-term association between SO(2) and daily mortality in 17 Chinese cities. We applied two-stage Bayesian hierarchical models to obtain city-specific and national average estimates for SO(2). In each city, we used Poisson regression models incorporating natural spline smoothing functions to adjust for long-term and seasonal trend of mortality, as well as other time-varying covariates. We examined the associations by age, gender and education status. As a result, the combined analysis showed that an increase of 10 µg/m(3) of two-day moving averaged SO(2) was associated with 0.75% [95% posterior interval (PI), 0.47 to 1.02], 0.83% (0.95% PI, 0.47 to 1.19) and 1.25% (95% PI, 0.78 to 1.73) increase of total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, respectively. The effects of SO(2) appeared more evident among the elderly. These associations were generally independent of particles with aerodynamic diameter <10 µm (PM(10)) but did not persist after adjustment for nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)). In conclusions, this largest epidemiologic study of air pollution in China to date suggests that short-term exposure to SO(2) is associated with increased mortality risk; however, these associations may be attributable to SO(2) serving as a surrogate of other substances. Further studies are needed to tackle the independent health effect of SO(2).

Impact of the 1990 Hong Kong legislation for restriction on sulfur content in fuel.

INTRODUCTION: After the implementation of a regulation restricting sulfur to 0.5% by weight in fuel on July 1, 1990, in Hong Kong, sulfur dioxide (SO2*) levels fell by 45% on average and as much as 80% in the most polluted districts (Hedley et al. 2002). In addition, a reduction of respiratory symptoms and an improvement in bronchial hyperresponsiveness in children were observed (Peters et al. 1996; Wong et al. 1998). A recent time-series study (Hedley et al. 2002) found an immediate reduction in mortality during the cool season at six months after the intervention, followed by an increase in cool-season mortality in the second and third years, suggesting that the reduction in pollution was associated with a delay in mortality. Proportional changes in mortality trends between the 5-year periods before and after the intervention were measured as relative risks and used to assess gains in life expectancy using the life table method (Hedley et al. 2002). To further explore the relation between changes in pollution-related mortality before and after the intervention, our study had three objectives: (1) to evaluate the short-term effects on mortality of changes in the pollutant mix after the Hong Kong sulfur intervention, particularly with changes in the particulate matter (PM) chemical species; (2) to improve the methodology for assessment of the health impact in terms of changes in life expectancy using linear regression models; and (3) to develop an approach for analyzing changes in life expectancy from Poisson regression models. A fourth overarching objective was to determine the relation between short- and long-term benefits due to an improvement in air quality. METHODS: For an assessment of the short-term effects on mortality due to changes in the pollutant mix, we developed Poisson regression Core Models with natural spline smoothers to control for long-term and seasonal confounding variations in the mortality counts and with covariates to adjust for temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH). We assessed the adequacy of the Core Models by evaluating the results against the Akaike Information Criterion, which stipulates that, at a minimum, partial autocorrelation plots should be between -0.1 and 0.1, and by examining the residual plots to make sure they were free from patterns. We assessed the effects for gaseous pollutants (NO2, SO2, and O3), PM with an aerodynamic diameter < or = 10 microm (PM10), and its chemical species (aluminum [Al], iron [Fe], manganese [Mn], nickel [Ni], vanadium [V], lead [Pb], and zinc [Zn]) using the Core Models, which were developed for the periods 5 years (or 2 years in the case of the sensitivity analysis) before and 5 years after the intervention, as well as in the10-year (or 7-year in the case of the sensitivity analysis) period pre- and post-intervention. We also included an indicator to separate the pre- and post-intervention periods, as well as the product of the indicator with an air pollution concentration variable. The health outcomes were mortality for all natural causes and for cardiovascular and respiratory causes, at all ages and in the 65 years or older age group. To assess the short- and long-term effects, we developed two methods: one using linear regression models reflecting the age-standardized mortality rate D(j) at day j, divided by a reference D(ref); and the other using Poisson regression models with daily mortality counts as the outcome variables. We also used both models to evaluate the relation between outcome variables and daily air pollution concentrations in the current day up to all previous days in the past 3 to 4 years. In the linear regression approach, we adjusted the data for temperature and relative humidity. We then removed season as a potential confounder, or deseasonalized them, by calculating a standard seasonal mortality rate profile, normalized to an annual average of unity, and dividing the mortality rates by this profile. Finally, to correct for long-term trends, we calculated a reference mortality rate D(ref)(j) as a moving average of the corrected and deseasonalized D(j) over the observation window. Then we regressed the outcome variable D(j)/D(ref) on an entire exposure sequence {c(i)} with lags up to 4 years in order to obtain impact coefficient f(i) from the regression model shown below: deltaD(j)/D (ref) = i(max)sigma f(i) c(j - i)(i = 0). The change in life expectancy (LE) for a change of units (deltac) in the concentration of pollutants on T(day)--representing the short interval (i.e., a day)--was calculated from the following equation (deltaL(pop) = average loss in life expectancy of an entire population): deltaL(pop) = -deltac T(day) infinity sigma (j = 0) infinity sigma f(i) (i = 0). In the Poisson regression approach, we fitted a distributed-lag model for exposure to previous days of up to 4 years in order to obtain the cumulative lag effect sigma beta(i). We fit the linear regression model of log(LE*/LE) = gamma(SMR - 1) + alpha to estimate the parameter gamma by gamma, where LE* and LE are life expectancy for an exposed and an unexposed population, respectively, and SMR represents the standardized mortality ratio. The life expectancy change per Ac increase in concentration is LE {exp[gamma delta c(sigma beta(i))]-1}. RESULTS: In our assessment of the changes in pollutant levels, the mean levels of SO2, Ni, and V showed a statistically significant decline, particularly in industrial areas. Ni and V showed the greatest impact on mortality, especially for respiratory diseases in the 5-year pre-intervention period for both the all-ages and 65+ groups among all chemical species. There were decreases in excess risks associated with Ni and V after the intervention, but they were nonsignificant. Using the linear regression approach, with a window of 1095 days (3 years), the losses in life expectancy with a 10-microg/m3 increase in concentrations, using two methods of estimation (one with adjustment for temperature and RH before the regression against pollutants, the other with adjustment for temperature and RH within the regression against pollutants), were 19.2 days (95% CI, 12.5 to 25.9) and 31.4 days (95% CI, 25.6 to 37.2) for PM10; and 19.7 days (95% CI, 15.2 to 24.2) and 12.8 days (95% CI, 8.9 to 16.8) for SO2. The losses in life expectancy in the current study were smaller than the ones implied by Elliott and colleagues (2007) and Pope and colleagues (2002) as expected since the observation window in our study was only 3 years whereas these other studies had windows of 16 years. In particular, the coefficients used by Elliott and colleagues (2007) for windows of 12 and 16 years were non-zero, which suggests that our window of at most 3 years cannot capture the full life expectancy loss and the effects were most likely underestimated. Using the Poisson regression approach, with a window of 1461 days (4 years), we found that a 10-microg/m3 increase in concentration of PM10 was associated with a change in life expectancy of -69 days (95% CI, -140 to 1) and a change of -133 days (95% CI, -172 to -94) for the same increase in SO2. The effect estimates varied as expected according to most variations in the sensitivity analysis model, specifically in terms of the Core Model definition, exposure windows, constraint of the lag effect pattern, and adjustment for smoking prevalence or socioeconomic status. CONCLUSIONS: Our results on the excess risks of mortality showed exposure to chemical species to be a health hazard. However, the statistical power was not sufficient to detect the differences between the pre- and post-intervention periods in Hong Kong due to the data limitations (specifically, the chemical species data were available only once every 6 days, and data were not available from some monitoring stations). Further work is needed to develop methods for maximizing the information from the data in order to assess any changes in effects due to the intervention. With complete daily air pollution and mortality data over a long period, time-series analysis methods can be applied to assess the short- and long-term effects of air pollution, in terms of changes in life expectancy. Further work is warranted to assess the duration and pattern of the health effects from an air pollution pulse (i.e., an episode of a rapid rise in air pollution) so as to determine an appropriate length and constraint on the distributed-lag assessment model.

Construction of a traditional Chinese medicine syndrome-specific outcome measure: the Kidney Deficiency Syndrome Questionnaire (KDSQ).

BACKGROUND: Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) syndrome-specific outcome measures is needed for the evaluation of TCM syndrome-specific therapies. We constructed a Kidney Deficiency Syndrome Questionnaire (KDSQ) for the evaluation of the common TCM syndromes Kidney-Yin Deficiency Syndrome (KDS-Yin) and Kidney-Yang Deficiency Syndrome (KDS-Yang) in middle-aged women with menopausal symptoms. METHODS: KDS-Yin and KDS-Yang were traditionally defined by expert opinion were validated by exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and structural equation modeling (SEM). Content validity was tested by EFA on a sample of 236 women from a seminar and SEM on another sample of 321 women from a postal survey. Other psychometric properties were tested on 292 women from the seminar at baseline and two systematically selected sub-samples: 54 who reported no changes in discomforts 11-12 days after the baseline and 31 who reported changes in discomforts 67-74 days after the baseline. All participants completed the KDSQ, the Greene Climacteric Scale and the standard 12-item Short Form Health Survey. RESULTS: The EFA and SEM established the measurement models of KDS-Yin and KDS-Yang supporting content validity of the KDSQ. Internal consistency was good (Cronbach's Alpha >0.70). Construct validity was supported by theoretically-derived levels of correlation with the established external measures. Test-retest reliability was strong (ICC(agreement): KDS-Yin, 0.94; KDS-Yang, 0.93). The KDSQ was responsive to changes over time as tested by effect size and longitudinal validity. CONCLUSIONS: The KDSQ was a valid and reliable measure for KDS-Yin and KDS-Yang in Hong Kong Chinese middle-aged women with menopausal symptoms.

Circulating influenza virus, climatic factors, and acute myocardial infarction: a time series study in England and Wales and Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies identifying associations between influenza and acute cardiac events may have been confounded by climatic factors. Differing seasonal patterns of influenza activity in Hong Kong and England and Wales provide a natural experiment to examine associations with myocardial infarction (MI) independent of cold weather effects. METHODS: Weekly clinical and laboratory influenza surveillance data, environmental temperature and humidity data, and counts of MI-associated hospitalizations and deaths were obtained for England and Wales and for Hong Kong for the period 1998-2008. We used Poisson regression models that included environmental and seasonal variables to investigate the relationship between influenza and MI. RESULTS: There were ≥1.2 million MI-associated hospitalizations and 410,204 MI-associated deaths in England and Wales, with a marked peak in the winter season. In Hong Kong, the incidence of MI, on the basis of 65,108 hospitalizations and 18,780 deaths, had a large winter and smaller summer peak, mirroring patterns of influenza activity. There was strong evidence for a link between influenza and MI both in England and Wales, where 3.1%-3.4% of MI-associated deaths (P < .001) and 0.7%-1.2% of MI-associated hospitalizations (P < .001) were attributable to influenza, and in Hong Kong, where the corresponding figures were 3.9%-5.6% (P = .018) and 3.0%-3.3% (P = .002). CONCLUSIONS: Influenza was associated with an increase in MI-associated deaths and hospitalizations in 2 contrasting settings.

Lung function and exposure to workplace second-hand smoke during exemptions from smoking ban legislation: an exposure-response relationship based on indoor PM2.5 and urinary cotinine levels.

BACKGROUND: The effects of workplace second-hand smoke (SHS) on lung function remain uncertain because of a lack of objective measures for SHS exposures. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether an exposure-response association exists between lung function and two different markers of SHS based on indoor fine particulate (PM(2.5)) and urinary cotinine levels in non-smoking catering workers. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study during a 1.5-year exemption of licensed catering premises from smoke-free legislation. Participants 186 non-smoking catering workers aged 18-65 years in Hong Kong were recruited. A declared non-smoking status was accepted in workers with exhaled breath carbon monoxide levels <6 ppm and urinary cotinine levels <100 ng/ml. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Lung function measures of forced expiratory volume in 1s (FEV(1) in litres), forced vital capacity (FVC in litres) and forced expiratory flow as 25-75% of FVC (FEF(25-75) in l/s) were recorded. RESULTS: Indoor fine particulate (PM(2.5)) concentrations were 4.4 times as high in smoking premises (267.9 µg/m(3)) than in non-smoking premises (60.3 µg/m(3)) and were strongly associated with the probability of permitted smoking (R(2)=0.99). Smoking was the dominant source of particulates (R(2)=0.66). Compared with workers exposed to the lowest indoor PM(2.5) stratum (<25 µg/m(3)), lung function was lower in the three higher PM(2.5) strata (25-75, 75-175, >175 µg/m(3)) with FEV(1) -0.072 (95% CI -0.123 to -0.021), -0.078 (95% CI -0.132 to -0.024), -0.101 (95% CI -0.187 to -0.014); FEF(25-75) -0.368 (95% CI -0.660 to -0.077), -0.489 (95% CI -0.799 to -0.179), -0.597 (95% CI -0.943 to -0.251); and FEV(1)/FVC (%) -2.9 (95% CI -4.8 to -1.0), -3.2 (95% CI -5.1 to -1.4) and -4.4 (95% CI -7.4 to -1.3), respectively. Urinary cotinine was associated positively with indoor PM(2.5) but negatively with lung function. Consistently lower values for lung function per unit increase of indoor PM(2.5) were found. CONCLUSION: Lung function is inversely associated with workplace SHS. Workplace exemptions and delays in implementing smoke-free policies and current moves to relax legislation are a major threat to the health of workers.

Effect modification of environmental factors on influenza-associated mortality: a time-series study in two Chinese cities.

BACKGROUND: Environmental factors have been associated with transmission and survival of influenza viruses but no studies have ever explored the role of environmental factors on severity of influenza infection. METHODS: We applied a Poisson regression model to the mortality data of two Chinese metropolitan cities located within the subtropical zone, to calculate the influenza associated excess mortality risks during the periods with different levels of temperature and humidity. RESULTS: The results showed that high absolute humidity (measured by vapor pressure) was significantly (p < 0.05) associated with increased risks of all-cause and cardiorespiratory deaths, but not with increased risks of pneumonia and influenza deaths. The association between absolute humidity and mortality risks was found consistent among the two cities. An increasing pattern of influenza associated mortality risks was also found across the strata of low to high relative humidity, but the results were less consistent for temperature. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the need for people with chronic cardiovascular and respiratory diseases to take extra caution against influenza during hot and humid days in the subtropics and tropics.

Short-term association between sulfur dioxide and daily mortality: the Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA) study.

Sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) has been associated with increased mortality and morbidity, but only few studies were conducted in Asian countries. Previous studies suggest that SO(2) may have adverse health effects independent of other pollutants. In the Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA) project, the short-term associations between ambient sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) and daily mortality were examined in Bangkok, Thailand, and three Chinese cities: Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Wuhan. Poisson regression models incorporating natural spline smoothing functions were used to adjust for seasonality and other time-varying covariates. Effect estimates were obtained for each city and then for the cities combined. The impact of alternative model specifications, such as lag structure of pollutants and degree of freedom (df) for time trend, on the estimated effects of SO(2) were also examined. In both individual-city and combined analysis, significant effects of SO(2) on total non-accidental and cardiopulmonary mortality were observed. An increase of 10 microg/m(3) of 2-day moving average concentrations of SO(2) corresponded to 1.00% [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.75-1.24], 1.09% (95% CI, 0.71-1.47), and 1.47% (95% CI, 0.85-2.08) increase of total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, respectively, in the combined analysis. Sensitivity analyzes suggested that these findings were generally insensitive to alternative model specifications. After adjustment for PM(10) or O(3), the effect of SO(2) remained significant in three Chinese cities. However, adjustment for NO(2) diminished the associations and rendered them statistically insignificant in all four cities. In conclusion, ambient SO(2) concentration was associated with daily mortality in these four Asian cities. These associations may be attributable to SO(2) serving as a surrogate of other substances. Our findings suggest that the role of outdoor exposure to SO(2) should be investigated further in this region.