Enhancing pneumonia prognosis in the emergency department: a novel machine learning approach using complete blood count and differential leukocyte count combined with CURB-65 score.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia poses a major global health challenge, necessitating accurate severity assessment tools. However, conventional scoring systems such as CURB-65 have inherent limitations. Machine learning (ML) offers a promising approach for prediction. We previously introduced the Blood Culture Prediction Index (BCPI) model, leveraging solely on complete blood count (CBC) and differential leukocyte count (DC), demonstrating its effectiveness in predicting bacteremia. Nevertheless, its potential in assessing pneumonia remains unexplored. Therefore, this study aims to compare the effectiveness of BCPI and CURB-65 in assessing pneumonia severity in an emergency department (ED) setting and develop an integrated ML model to enhance efficiency. METHODS: This retrospective study was conducted at a 3400-bed tertiary medical center in Taiwan. Data from 9,352 patients with pneumonia in the ED between 2019 and 2021 were analyzed in this study. We utilized the BCPI model, which was trained on CBC/DC data, and computed CURB-65 scores for each patient to compare their prognosis prediction capabilities. Subsequently, we developed a novel Cox regression model to predict in-hospital mortality, integrating the BCPI model and CURB-65 scores, aiming to assess whether this integration enhances predictive performance. RESULTS: The predictive performance of the BCPI model and CURB-65 score for the 30-day mortality rate in ED patients and the in-hospital mortality rate among admitted patients was comparable across all risk categories. However, the Cox regression model demonstrated an improved area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.713 than that of CURB-65 (0.668) for in-hospital mortality (p<0.001). In the lowest risk group (CURB-65=0), the Cox regression model outperformed CURB-65, with a significantly lower mortality rate (2.9% vs. 7.7%, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The BCPI model, constructed using CBC/DC data and ML techniques, performs comparably to the widely utilized CURB-65 in predicting outcomes for patients with pneumonia in the ED. Furthermore, by integrating the CURB-65 score and BCPI model into a Cox regression model, we demonstrated improved prediction capabilities, particularly for low-risk patients. Given its simple parameters and easy training process, the Cox regression model may be a more effective prediction tool for classifying patients with pneumonia in the emergency room.

Performance of Six Clinical Physiological Scoring Systems in Predicting In-Hospital Mortality in Elderly and Very Elderly Patients with Acute Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding in Emergency Department.

Background and Objectives: The aim of this study is to compare the performance of six clinical physiological-based scores, including the pre-endoscopy Rockall score, shock index (SI), age shock index (age SI), Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS), Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS), and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), in predicting in-hospital mortality in elderly and very elderly patients in the emergency department (ED) with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB). Materials and Methods: Patients older than 65 years who visited the ED with a clinical diagnosis of AUGIB were enrolled prospectively from July 2016 to July 2021. The six scores were calculated and compared with in-hospital mortality. Results: A total of 336 patients were recruited, of whom 40 died. There is a significant difference between the patients in the mortality group and survival group in terms of the six scoring systems. MEWS had the highest area under the curve (AUC) value (0.82). A subgroup analysis was performed for a total of 180 very elderly patients (i.e., older than 75 years), of whom 27 died. MEWS also had the best predictive performance in this subgroup (AUC, 0.82). Conclusions: This simple, rapid, and obtainable-by-the-bed parameter could assist emergency physicians in risk stratification and decision making for this vulnerable group.

Does medical disparity exist while treating severe mental illness patients with acute appendicitis in emergency departments? A real-world database study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with severe mental illness (SMI) have a shorter life expectancy and have been considered by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a vulnerable group. As the causes for this mortality gap are complex, clarification regarding the contributing factors is crucial to improving the health care of SMI patients. Acute appendicitis is one of the most common indications for emergency surgery worldwide. A higher perforation rate has been found among psychiatric patients. This study aims to evaluate the differences in appendiceal perforation rate, emergency department (ED) management, in-hospital outcomes, and in-hospital expenditure among acute appendicitis patients with or without SMI via the use of a multi-centre database. METHODS: Relying on Chang Gung Research Database (CGRD) for data, we selectively used its data from January 1st, 2007 to December 31st, 2017. The diagnoses of acute appendicitis and SMI were confirmed by combining ICD codes with relevant medical records. A non-SMI patient group was matched at the ratio of 1:3 by using the Greedy algorithm. The outcomes were appendiceal perforation rate, ED treatment, in-hospital outcome, and in-hospital expenditure. RESULTS: A total of 25,766 patients from seven hospitals over a span of 11 years were recruited; among them, 11,513 were excluded by criteria, with 14,253 patients left for analysis. SMI group was older (50.5 vs. 44.4 years, p < 0.01) and had a higher percentage of females (56.5 vs. 44.4%, p = 0.01) and Charlson Comorbidity Index. An analysis of the matched group has revealed that the SMI group has a higher unscheduled 72-hour revisit to ED (17.9 vs. 10.4%, p = 0.01). There was no significant difference in appendiceal perforation rate, ED treatment, in-hospital outcome, and in-hospital expenditure. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated no obvious differences in appendiceal perforation rate, ED management, in-hospital outcomes, and in-hospital expenditure among SMI and non-SMI patients with acute appendicitis. A higher unscheduled 72-hour ED revisit rate prior to the diagnosis of acute appendicitis in the SMI group was found. ED health providers need to be cautious when it comes to SMI patients with vague symptoms or unspecified abdominal complaints.

Validation of the diagnosis and triage algorithm for acute myocardial infarction in the setting of left bundle branch block.

BACKGROUND: Detecting acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in the setting of left bundle branch block (LBBB) remains a challenge to clinicians. Several diagnostic and triage algorithms have been proposed to accurately identify LBBB patients with an acute culprit vessel. We aimed to validate the algorithm proposed by Cai et al., which uses patients' hemodynamic status and the modified Sgarbossa electrocardiography criteria to guide reperfusion therapy. METHODS: This retrospective study was performed with a chart review in emergency departments (EDs) of 2 medical centers, 2 regional hospitals, and 1 local hospital. From January 2010 to December 2014, 2432 consecutive patients were diagnosed as having STEMI in the ED, including 65 patients with LBBB (2.6%). RESULTS: The patients with LBBB were older and more frequently presented with acute pulmonary edema (58.5% vs 22.1%, p < 0.001), cardiogenic shock (16.9% vs 6.3% p = 0.006), and VT/VF episodes (7.7% vs 2.2%, p = 0.034) and had a higher 30-day mortality rate (20.0% vs 10.4% p = 0.032) than those without LBBB. We then tested the algorithm proposed by Cai et al. and noted a sensitivity of 93.8% in identifying a culprit lesion. CONCLUSIONS: The inconsistency of the guideline recommendations reflects the uncertainty of diagnostic and therapeutic strategies and the pressing need for tools to accurately identify the true acute myocardial infarction in patients presenting with chest pain and LBBB. The algorithm proposed by Cai et al. had good sensitivity and would allow emergency physicians to implement the timely treatment protocol for this high-risk population.

Effectiveness of Sodium Bicarbonate Administration on Mortality in Cardiac Arrest Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The 2010 Advanced Cardiac Life Support guidelines stated that routine sodium bicarbonate (SB) use for cardiac arrest patients was not recommended. However, SB administration during resuscitation is still common. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effect of SB on return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and survival-to-discharge rates in adult cardiac arrest patients. METHODS: We searched Medline, Scopus, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) from inception to December 2019. We included trials on nontraumatic adult patients after cardiac resuscitation and SB treatment vs. controls. RESULTS: A meta-analysis was performed with six observational studies, including 18,406 adult cardiac arrest patients. There were no significant differences in the ROSC rate (odds ratio [OR] 1.185; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.680-2.065) and survival-to-discharge rate (OR 0.296; 95% CI 0.066-1.323) between the SB and no-SB groups. In the subgroup analysis based on the year factor, there were no significant differences in the mortality rate in the After-2010 group. In the subgroup analysis based on the continent, the ROSC rate (OR 0.521; 95% CI 0.432-0.628) and survival-to-discharge rate (OR 0.102; 95% CI 0.066-0.156) were significantly lower in the North American group. CONCLUSIONS: SB use was not associated with improvement in ROSC or survival-to-discharge rates in cardiac resuscitation. In addition, mortality was significantly increased in the North American group with SB administration.

Comparison of National Early Warning Score with shock index in patients with necrotizing fasciitis.

Shock index (SI) and national early warning score (NEWS) are more frequently used as assessment tools in acute illnesses, patient disposition and early identification of critical condition. Both they are consisted of common vital signs and parameters including heart rate, systolic blood pressure, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation and level of conscious, which made it easy to evaluate in medical facilities. Its ability to predict mortality in patients with necrotizing fasciitis (NF) in the emergency department remains unclear. This study was conducted to compare the predictive capability of the risk scores among NF patients. A retrospective cohort study of hospitalized patients with NF was conducted in 2 tertiary teaching hospitals in Taiwan between January 2013 and March 2015. We investigated the association of NEWS and SI with mortality in NF patients. Of the 395 NF patients, 32 (8.1%) died in the hospital. For mortality, the area under the receiver curve value of NEWS (0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.76-0.86) was significantly higher than SI (0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.73-0.79, P = .016). The sensitivities of NEWS of 3, 4, and 5 for mortality were 98.1%, 95.6%, and 92.3%. On the contrast, the sensitivities of SI of 0.5, 0.6, and 0.7 for mortality were 87.8%, 84.7%, and 81.5%. NEWS had advantage in better discriminative performance of mortality in NF patients. The NEWS may be used to identify relative low risk patients among NF patients.

In-hospital mortality associated with necrotizing soft tissue infection due to Vibrio vulnificus: a matched-pair cohort study.

BACKGROUND: It remains unclear whether Vibrio vulnificus necrotizing soft tissue infection (NSTI) is associated with higher mortality compared with non-Vibrio NSTI. This study's objective was to compare outcomes including in-hospital mortality and prognosis between patients with V. vulnificus NSTI and those with non-Vibrio NSTI. METHOD: A retrospective 1:2 matched-pair cohort study of hospitalized patients with NSTI diagnosed by surgical finding was conducted in two tertiary hospitals in southern Taiwan between January 2015 and January 2020. In-hospital outcomes (mortality, length of stay) were compared between patients with and without V. vulnificus infection. We performed multiple imputation using chained equations followed by multivariable regression analyses fitted with generalized estimating equations to account for clustering within matched pairs. All-cause in-hospital mortality and length of stay during hospitalization were compared for NSTI patients with and without V. vulnificus. RESULT: A total of 135 patients were included, 45 in V. vulnificus NSTI group and 90 in non-Vibrio group. The V. vulnificus NSTI patients had higher mortality and longer hospital stays. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that V. vulnificus NSTI was significantly associated with higher in-hospital mortality compared with non-Vibrio NSTI (adjusted odds ratio = 1.52; 95% confidence interval 1.36-1.70; p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Vibrio vulnificus NSTI was associated with higher in-hospital mortality and longer hospital stay which may increase health care costs, suggesting that preventing V. vulnificus infection is essential.

Differentiating necrotizing soft tissue infections from cellulitis by soft tissue infectious fluid analysis: a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: We conducted this study to evaluate the characteristics of the infectious fluid in soft tissue infection and investigate the utility of the biochemical tests and Gram stain smear of the infectious fluid in distinguishing necrotizing soft tissue infection (NSTI) from cellulitis. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was conducted in a tertiary care hospital in Taiwan. From April 2019 to October 2020, patients who were clinically suspected of NSTI with infectious fluid accumulation along the deep fascia and received successful ultrasound-guided aspiration were enrolled. Based on the final discharge diagnosis, the patients were divided into NSTI group, which was supported by the surgical pathology report, or cellulitis group. The t test method and Fisher's exact test were used to compare the difference between two groups. The receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the discriminating ability. RESULTS: Total twenty-five patients were enrolled, with 13 patients in NSTI group and 12 patients in cellulitis group. The statistical analysis showed lactate in fluid (AUC = 0.937) and LDH in fluid (AUC = 0.929) had outstanding discrimination. The optimal cut-off value of fluid in lactate was 69.6 mg/dL with corresponding sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 76.9%. The optimal cut-off value of fluid in LDH was 566 U/L with corresponding sensitivity of 83.3% and a specificity of 92.3%. In addition, albumin in fluid (AUC = 0.821), TP in fluid (AUC = 0.878) and pH in fluid (AUC = 0.858) also had excellent diagnostic accuracy for NSTI. The Gram stain smear revealed 50% bacteria present in NSTI group and all the following infectious fluid culture showed bacteria growth. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis of infectious fluid along the deep fascia might provide high diagnostic accuracy to differentiate NSTI from cellulitis.

Differentiating Lower Extremity Necrotizing Soft Tissue Infection from Severe Cellulitis by Laboratory Parameters and Relevant History Points.

BACKGROUND: Necrotizing soft tissue infection (NSTI) of the lower extremity (LE) is a rapidly progressing infection that requires early diagnosis and prompt treatment to decrease risks of loss of limb or life. Clinical presentation, particularly of early NSTI, can appear similar to severe cellulitis. The purpose of this study is to identify factors that are associated with NSTI rather than severe cellulitis to differentiate patients with similar clinical presentation. METHODS: This retrospective cohort design study compares patients finally diagnosed with LE NSTI versus those diagnosed with severe cellulitis. Cohorts were matched using the modified Laboratory Risk Indicator for Necrotizing Fasciitis (m-LRINEC) score in the setting of LE soft tissue infection. Laboratory values, vital signs, subjective symptoms, and social factors including substance abuse were recorded. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed. RESULTS: Multivariate statistical analysis and clinical interpretation of data identified four factors more associated with a diagnosis of NSTI than severe cellulitis: elevated lactate, a patient-reported history of fever, male gender, and intravenous substance user. CONCLUSION: In patients with lower extremity infections, the clinical presentation of NSTI and severe cellulitis may appear similar. In this retrospective cohort of patients matched with m-LRINEC scores, elevated lactate, subjective fever, male gender, and intravenous substance abuser were significantly associated with NSTI rather than severe cellulitis. Further studies of these factors in the clinical setting can help tailor the differential diagnosis in the care of patients with severe lower extremity infections. Matched with m-LRINEC scores, elevated lactate, subjective fever, male gender, and intravenous substance abuser were significantly associated with NSTI rather than severe cellulitis. Further studies of these factors in the clinical setting can help tailor the differential diagnosis in the care of patients with severe lower extremity infections.

Utility of modified Laboratory Risk Indicator for Necrotizing Fasciitis (MLRINEC) score in distinguishing necrotizing from non-necrotizing soft tissue infections.

BACKGROUND: We conducted this study to promote a modified Laboratory Risk Indicator for Necrotizing Fasciitis (MLRINEC) score and evaluate the utility in distinguishing necrotizing fasciitis (NF) from other soft-tissue infections. METHOD: A retrospective cohort study of hospitalized patients with NF diagnosed by surgical finding was conducted in two tertiary hospital in southern Taiwan between January 2015 and January 2020. Another group was matched by controls with non-necrotizing soft tissue infections based on time, demographics, and immune status. Data such as infectious location, comorbidities, and laboratory findings were recorded and compared. Logistics regression were used to determine the association with NF after adjustment for confounders and MLRINEC score was developed by then. Receiver operating curve (ROC) and the area under the curve (AUC) were used to evaluate its discriminating ability. RESULT: A total of 303 patients were included; 101 in NF group and 202 in non-NF group. We added serum lactate and comorbid liver disease to the original LRINEC score and re-defined the cut-off values for 3 variables to develop the MLRINEC score. The cut-off value for MLRINEC score was 12 points with corresponding sensitivity of 91.8% and a specificity of 88.4%, and the area under ROC (AUC) was 0.893 (95% CI, 0.723 to 0.948; p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: MLRINEC score shows a high sensitivity and specificity in distinguishing NF from non-necrotizing soft-tissue infections. Patients with a MLRINEC score > 12 points should be highly suspected of presence of necrotizing fasciitis.

Sodium bicarbonate administration during in-hospital pediatric cardiac arrest: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Current American Heart Association Pediatric Life Support (PLS) guidelines do not recommend the routine use of sodium bicarbonate (SB) during cardiac arrest in pediatric patients. However, SB administration during pediatric resuscitation is still common in clinical practice. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of SB on mortality and neurological outcomes in pediatric patients with in-hospital cardiac arrest. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials from inception to January 2021. We included studies of pediatric patients that had two treatment arms (treated with SB or not treated with SB) during in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA). Risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and the certainty of evidence was assessed using GRADE system. RESULTS: We included 7 observational studies with a total of 4877 pediatric in-hospital cardiac arrest patients. Meta-analysis showed that SB administration during pediatric cardiac resuscitation was associated with a significantly decreased rate of survival to hospital discharge (odds ratio [OR], 0.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.25-0.63, p value = 0.0003). There were insufficient studies for 24-h survival and neurologic outcomes analysis. The subgroup analysis showed a significantly decreased rate of survival to hospital discharge in both the "before 2010" subgroup (OR 0.47; 95% CI 0.30-0.73; p value = 0.006) and the "after 2010" subgroup (OR 0.46; 95% CI 0.25-0.87; p value = 0.02). The certainty of evidence ranged from very low to low. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis of non-randomized studies supported current PLS guideline that routine administration of SB is not recommended in pediatric cardiac arrest except in special resuscitation situations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The protocol was registered with PROSPERO on 8 August 2020 (registration number: CRD42020197837).

Patients with Liver Cirrhosis as Frequent Attenders of Emergency Departments.

OBJECTIVES: Frequent attendance for nonemergency problems to emergency departments (EDs) contributes to ED overcrowding, resulting in medical care delays, increased medical errors, and social and economic burdens. Most studies regarding frequent attenders of EDs examine general patients without classifying certain subgroups. This study aimed to investigate patients with liver cirrhosis who present repeatedly to the ED. METHODS: This was a retrospective, observational cohort study of adult patients with a history of liver cirrhosis presenting to the ED from January 2011 to December 2015. We included patients with cirrhosis whose first ED visit occurred during the study period. We went far back for 20 years and excluded patients with any ED visits (including both cirrhosis and noncirrhosis-related ones) before the study period. We categorized frequent attenders as patients with more than 4 ED visits within 12 months after the first ED visit; infrequent attenders were those who did not meet this criterion. RESULTS: A total of 3513 patients with cirrhosis were included in this retrospective cohort study. Compared with the infrequent attenders, frequent attenders had a higher rate of presentations due to hepatic encephalopathy (15.2% vs 13.7%, P < 0.001) and ascites (10% vs 4%, P < 0.001) and ascites (10% vs 4%, P < 0.001) and ascites (10% vs 4%. CONCLUSIONS: Hepatic encephalopathy and ascites account for more ED visits in frequent than in infrequent attenders. Our findings provide information for those planning outpatient support for patients with cirrhosis. Further research is warranted.

Factors associated with outcomes in traumatic cardiac arrest patients without prehospital return of spontaneous circulation.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic factors for the outcomes in traumatic cardiac arrest (TCA) patients transported to hospitals without prehospital return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) remain uncertain. The aim of this study is to investigate factors associated with outcomes in TCA patients without prehospital ROSC. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a multi-institutional, 5-year database. Only TCA patients without prehospital ROSC were included. The primary outcome was ROSC in the emergency department (ED), and the secondary outcome was 30-day survival. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the factors associated with primary and secondary outcomes. RESULTS: Among 463 TCA patients, 73 (16%) had ROSC during ED resuscitation, and among those with sustained ROSC, 10 (14%) survived for at least 30 days. Injury severity score ≧ 16 (OR, 0.06; 95% CI: 0.02-0.20), trauma center admission (OR, 2.69; 95% CI: 1.03-7.03), length of ED resuscitation (OR, 0.98; 95% CI: 0.96-0.99), and total resuscitation length > 20 min (OR, 0.21; 95% CI: 0.08-0.54) were associated with ROSC. CONCLUSIONS: In TCA patients transported to hospitals without prehospital ROSC, resuscitation attempts could be beneficial. We should aim to resuscitate patients as soon as possible with appropriate treatments for trauma patients, early activation of trauma team, and then, as a result, shorter resuscitation time will be achieved.

The association between blood urea nitrogen to creatinine ratio and mortality in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: Azotaemia is commonly identified among patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) due to absorption of blood products in the small bowel. Previous studies have found blood urea nitrogen-to-creatinine (BUN/Cr) ratio to be significantly elevated among patients UGIB bleeding compared to patients with lower GI bleeding. However, no studies have explored the relationship between BUN/Cr ratio and mortality. This study is aimed at investigating how BUN/Cr ratio relates to outcomes for UGIB patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This study was conducted prospectively at a university-affiliated teaching hospital with approximate 70,000 annual emergency department (ED) visits. Data from a total of 258 adult UGIB patients were collected between March 1, 2011 and March 1, 2012. Cox regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for 30-day mortality. RESULTS: Malignancy and Rockall score were associated with increased risk of 30-day mortality (Unadjusted hazard ratio (HR): 3.87, 95% CI: 1.59-9.41, p = 0.0029; HR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.02-1.71, p = 0.0476, respectively). However, BUN/Cr > 30 was associated with lower risk of 30-day mortality (HR: 0.32, 95% CI: 0.11-0.97, p = 0.0441). CONCLUSIONS: A BUN/Cr ratio of >30 was found to be an independent risk factor for mortality and may be useful for pre-endoscopic assessment. Development of future risk scoring systems might warrant consideration of including BUN/Cr ratio as a parameter for estimating risk.

Bacteremia in cirrhotic patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Increased risk of bacterial infection is common in cirrhotic patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). Our study aimed to explore the association of the bacteremia with in-hospital mortality and risk factors of bacteremia in these patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In our retrospective cohort study, we collected data for cirrhotic patients with UGIB admitted to our hospital between August 2010 and December 2010. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. The secondary outcome was bacteremia. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to determine risk factors for mortality and bacteremia. RESULTS: A total of 202 patients with cirrhosis presenting with UGIB at the emergency department (ED) were enrolled. Bacteremia was associated with a higher mortality rate (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 9.7; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.9-50.6, p=0.007), whereas shock (systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg at ED triage) and bandemia (>0% immature neutrophils of band form) were associated with bacteremia in cirrhotic patients with UGIB (adjusted OR: 5.3; 95% CI: 2.3-12.7, p<0.0001 and adjusted OR: 4.0; 95% CI: 1.6-9.9, p=0.0003, respectively). CONCLUSION: Bacteremia in cirrhotic patients with UGIB is one of the major risk factors leading to in-hospital mortality. On the basis of our findings, prevention of bacteremia in cirrhotic patients with UGIB, especially in those with shock and bandemia, is important; thus, adequate antibiotic treatment is suggested.