A quantitative assessment of the consistency of projections from five mathematical models of the HIV epidemic in South Africa: a model comparison study.

BACKGROUND: Mathematical models are increasingly used to inform HIV policy and planning. Comparing estimates obtained using different mathematical models can test the robustness of estimates and highlight research gaps. As part of a larger project aiming to determine the optimal allocation of funding for HIV services, in this study we compare projections from five mathematical models of the HIV epidemic in South Africa: EMOD-HIV, Goals, HIV-Synthesis, Optima, and Thembisa. METHODS: The five modelling groups produced estimates of the total population, HIV incidence, HIV prevalence, proportion of people living with HIV who are diagnosed, ART coverage, proportion of those on ART who are virally suppressed, AIDS-related deaths, total deaths, and the proportion of adult males who are circumcised. Estimates were made under a "status quo" scenario for the period 1990 to 2040. For each output variable we assessed the consistency of model estimates by calculating the coefficient of variation and examining the trend over time. RESULTS: For most outputs there was significant inter-model variability between 1990 and 2005, when limited data was available for calibration, good consistency from 2005 to 2025, and increasing variability towards the end of the projection period. Estimates of HIV incidence, deaths in people living with HIV, and total deaths displayed the largest long-term variability, with standard deviations between 35 and 65% of the cross-model means. Despite this variability, all models predicted a gradual decline in HIV incidence in the long-term. Projections related to the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets were more consistent, with the coefficients of variation below 0.1 for all groups except children. CONCLUSIONS: While models produced consistent estimates for several outputs, there are areas of variability that should be investigated. This is important if projections are to be used in subsequent cost-effectiveness studies.

Towards responsive policy and actions to address non-communicable disease risks amongst adolescents in Indonesia: insights from key stakeholders.

Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as cancer, diabetes, heart disease, mental disorder and chronic lung conditions are the leading cause of death and disability in Indonesia. Adolescence is when risks for NCDs emerge and it is also an important life stage for intervention, yet young people are often at the margins of NCD policy and actions. This study aimed to understand how policies and actions should address NCD risks (tobacco smoking, inadequate physical activity, and diet) for adolescents in Indonesia, and how young people can be meaningfully involved. Methods: Qualitative in-depth interviews over videoconference (n = 21) were conducted in English or Bahasa with stakeholders in Indonesia. Participants included policymakers, implementation partners, and advocates who were focused on adolescent health or NCDs. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, translated, and thematically analysed using NVivo12. Findings were disseminated to participants for validation and feedback. Youth participants (n = 7) attended an additional workshop and considered recommendations and actions arising from this research. Findings: Participants identified that government and non-government organisations are acting on NCDs in Indonesia, but few of the existing initiatives target adolescents, and adolescent services rarely addressed NCD risks. Participants also felt that policies to protect adolescents from NCD risks (i.e., smoke-free areas in public) were not always enforced. For programs or initiatives focused on adolescent health, those that had engaged adolescents as co-creators and leaders were perceived to be more successful. As such, participants recommended more meaningful engagement of young people, including young people's leadership of initiatives. Additional recommendations included the need for intersectoral engagement and a 'whole-of-government' approach to prevention given the complex determinants of NCD risks, and the need for evidence-based actions that are underpinned by quality data to enable monitoring of progress. Interpretation: There is a recognised need to strengthen policies and actions to address NCD risks amongst adolescents in Indonesia. Meaningful youth engagement that allows young people to take the lead, intersectoral actions, and evidence-based data driven responses were key strategies identified. Funding: UNICEF East Asia and Pacific Regional Office.

Foregone health care in adolescents from school and community settings in Indonesia: a cross-sectional study.

Background: Adolescence is a development period marked by the onset of a new set of health needs. The present study sought to quantify the prevalence of foregone care (not seeking medical care when needed) and identify which adolescents are at greater risk of having unmet healthcare needs. Methods: A multi-stage random sampling strategy was used to recruit school participants (grade 10-12) in two provinces in Indonesia. Respondent driven sampling was used to recruit out-of-school adolescents in the community. All participants completed a self-reported questionnaire which measured healthcare seeking behaviours, psychosocial wellbeing, use of healthcare services, and perceived barriers to accessing healthcare. Multivariable regression analysis was performed to examine factors associated with foregone care. Findings: A total of 2161 adolescents participated in the present study and nearly one in four adolescents reported foregone care in the past year. Experiences of poly-victimisation and seeking care for mental health needs increased the risk of foregone care. In-school adolescents who reported psychological distress [adjusted risk ratio (aRR) = 1.88, 95%CI = 1.48-2.38] or had high body mass index (aRR = 1.25, 95%CI = 1.00-1.57) were at greater risk of foregone care. The leading reason for foregone care was lack of knowledge of available services. In-school adolescents predominantly reported non-access barriers to care (e.g., perception of the health concern or anxiety about accessing care) whereas most out-of-school adolescents reported access barriers (e.g., did not know where to get care or could not pay). Interpretation: Foregone care is common among Indonesian adolescents, especially in adolescents with mental and physical health risks. Differences between in-school and out-of-school adolescents suggest that interventions to promote appropriate healthcare use will need tailoring. Further research is needed to determine causal relationships around barriers in access to healthcare. Funding: Australia-Indonesia Centre.

Mental health of adolescents in Myanmar: A systematic review of prevalence, determinants and interventions.

Adolescence is a developmental phase where mental disorders typically manifest and where platforms for response (including schools and health services) change rapidly. However, data to inform public mental health responses are limited, including in countries like Myanmar which has a large adolescent population and where mental health has been identified as a priority of policy. In this paper we sought to systematically review the peer-reviewed and grey literature to determine (i) the prevalence of mental disorder among adolescents in Myanmar, (ii) determinants of mental disorder and (iii) interventions that have been implemented and evaluated. Nine publications met inclusion criteria (7 peer-reviewed and 2 grey literature) that included 7 publications reporting prevalence, 6 reporting correlates and one an intervention. The available data from the 2016 Global School-based Health Survey highlight that depression (27.2%) and suicidal ideation (9.4%) are prevalent in Myanmar, and these rates are substantially higher than regional averages. The limited available data on correlates identified violence and bullying, alcohol and substance use, and home, family and community security and cohesion as being closely related to mental health for adolescents. Only one study focussed on interventions and this found mindfulness meditation training to be an effective approach for young people whose parents were affected by HIV. These findings underscore the need to address adolescent mental health in Myanmar, but also to invest in better data collection efforts.

Matching action to need: an analysis of Global Burden of Disease 2017 and population health data to focus adolescent health policy and actions in Myanmar.

Background: Myanmar is a country undergoing rapid transitions in health. Its national strategic policy for young people's health is being revised but there is a paucity of population data to inform local priorities and needs. Objective: In this paper we describe a comprehensive profile of adolescent health in Myanmar to focus policy and health actions. Methods: We used available primary data, and modelled estimates from the GBD 2017, to describe health outcomes (mortality and morbidity), health risks and determinants for adolescents in Myanmar between 1990-2017. A governance group of key stakeholders guided the framing of the study, interpretation of findings, and recommendations. Results: Overall health has improved for adolescents in Myanmar since 1990, however adolescent mortality remains high, particularly so for older adolescent males; all-cause mortality rate for 10-24 years was 70 per 100,000 for females and 149 per 100,000 for males (16,095 adolescent deaths in 2017). Overall, the dominant health problems were injuries for males and non-communicable disease for females in a context of ongoing burden of communicable and nutritional diseases for both sexes, and reproductive health needs for females. Health risks relating to undernutrition (thinness and anaemia) remain prevalent, with other health risks (overweight, binge alcohol use, and substance use) relatively low by global and regional standards but increasing. Gains have been made in social determinants such as adolescent fertility and modern contraception use; however, advances have been more limited in secondary education completion and engagement in employment and post education training. Conclusions: These results highlight the need to focus current efforts on addressing disease and mortality experienced by adolescents in Myanmar, with a specific focus on injury, mental health and non-communicable disease.

Gender inequalities in health and wellbeing across the first two decades of life: an analysis of 40 low-income and middle-income countries in the Asia-Pacific region.

BACKGROUND: By adulthood, gender inequalities in health and wellbeing are apparent. Yet, the timing and nature of gender inequalities during childhood and adolescence are less clear. We describe the emergence of gender inequalities in health and wellbeing across the first two decades of life. METHODS: We focused on the 40 low-income and middle-income countries in Asia and the Pacific. A measurement framework was developed around four key domains of wellbeing across the first two decades: health, education and transition to employment, protection, and a safe environment. Specific measurement constructs were then defined by considering gender indicator frameworks, the Sustainable Development Goals, indicator frameworks for child and adolescent health and wellbeing, and key stakeholder input. Available data were then mapped to define 87 indicators, subsequently populated using databases (UN agencies and the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study) and nationally representative surveys. Where possible, estimates in girls were compared with boys to report relative risks. FINDINGS: Although son preference is evident in some settings-as shown by higher than expected male-to-female sex ratios at birth in India, Vietnam, and China (all >1·10 compared with an expected ratio of 1·05) and excess mortality of girl children in some South Asian and Pacific nations-it is during early adolescence where marked gender inequalities consistently emerged. Adolescent girls face considerable disadvantage in relation to sexual and reproductive health (notably in South Asia and the Pacific), with high rates of child marriage (≥30% of women aged 20-24 years married before 18 years in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Afghanistan), fertility (≥65 livebirths per 1000 girls in Nauru, Laos, Afghanistan, Nepal, Marshall Islands, Bangladesh, Vanuatu, and Papua New Guinea), and intimate partner violence (>20% in Timor Leste, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Myanmar). Despite educational parity in many countries, females aged 15-24 years were less likely than males to be in education, employment, or training in 17 of 19 countries for which data were available. Compared with girls, adolescent boys experienced excess all-cause mortality and substantially higher mortality due to unintentional injury, interpersonal violence, alcohol and other drugs, and suicide, and higher prevalence of harmful drinking and tobacco smoking. INTERPRETATION: These findings call for a focus on gender policy and programming in later childhood and early adolescence before gender inequalities become embedded. FUNDING: UNICEF.

Understanding mental health and its determinants from the perspective of adolescents: A qualitative study across diverse social settings in Indonesia.

Poor mental health is a leading contributor to the burden of disease experienced by adolescents, including in resource constrained settings. However, little is known about how adolescents in these countries conceptualise mental health and its determinants which is essential to informing effective responses. This study aimed to explore how adolescents in Indonesia (a populous and rapidly developing country) conceptualise mental health and what they identify as important determinants. Eight focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted with 86 Indonesian adolescents (aged 16-18 years), sampled from schools and community settings from Jakarta and South Sulawesi. FGDs were recorded, transcribed, translated and thematically analysed. Mental health was recognised as a significant concern by adolescents in Indonesia. Good mental health was conceptualised as emotional wellbeing and happiness. By contrast, poor mental health was predominantly described in terms of substantial mental illness manifesting as behavioural and physical disturbance. Further, poor mental health only happened to 'other' people, with stigmatising views prevalent. Absent from the discussions were common symptoms of poor mental health (stress, loneliness, poor sleep) and common mental disorders (e.g. depression, anxiety) or a conceptualisation that reflected poor mental health to be a normal human experience. Discussions around determinants of poor mental health suggested that family connections (particularly with parents), school pressures, and adverse exposures on social media were important drivers of poor mental health, with religion also surfacing as an important determinant. In highlighting mental health as an important issue for Indonesian adolescents, this study provides a foundation for targeted responses.

Direct assessment of mental health and metabolic syndrome amongst Indonesian adolescents: a study design for a mixed-methods study sampled from school and community settings.

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally, with the burden largely borne by people living in low- and middle-income countries. Adolescents are central to NCD control through the potential to modify risks and alter the trajectory of these diseases across the life-course. However, an absence of epidemiological data has contributed to the relative exclusion of adolescents from policies and responses. This paper documents the design of a study to measure the burden of metabolic syndrome (a key risk for NCDs) and poor mental health (a key outcome) amongst Indonesian adolescents. Using a mixed-method design, we sampled 16-18-year-old adolescents from schools and community-based settings across Jakarta and South Sulawesi. Initial formative qualitative enquiry used focus group discussions to understand how young people conceptualise mental health and body weight (separately); what they perceive as determinants of these NCDs; and what responses to these NCDs should involve. These findings informed the design of a quantitative survey that adolescents self-completed electronically. Mental health was measured using the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale-Revised (CESD-R) and Kessler-10 (both validated against formal psychiatric interview in a subsample), with the metabolic syndrome measured using biomarkers and anthropometry. The survey also included scales relating to victimisation, connectedness, self-efficacy, body image and quality of life. Adolescents were sampled from schools using a multistage cluster design, and from the community using respondent-driven sampling (RDS). This study will substantially advance the field of NCD measurement amongst adolescents, especially in settings like Indonesia. It demonstrates that high quality, objective measurement is acceptable and feasible, including the collection of biomarkers in a school-based setting. It demonstrates how comparable data can be collected across both in-school and out of school adolescents, allowing a more comprehensive measure of NCD burden, risk and correlates.