Prognostic Factors and Models for Predicting Work Absence in Adults with Musculoskeletal Conditions Consulting a Healthcare Practitioner: A Systematic Review.

PURPOSE: It is difficult to predict which employees, in particular those with musculoskeletal pain, will return to work quickly without additional vocational advice and support, which employees will require this support and what levels of support are most appropriate. Consequently, there is no way of ensuring the right individuals are directed towards the right services to support their occupational health needs. The aim of this review will be to identify prognostic factors for duration of work absence in those already absent and examine the utility of prognostic models for work absence. METHODS: Eight databases were search using a combination of subject headings and key words focusing on work absence, musculoskeletal pain and prognosis. Two authors independently assessed the eligibility of studies, extracted data from all eligible studies and assessed risk of bias using the QUIPS or PROBAST tools, an adapted GRADE was used to assess the strength of the evidence. To make sense of the data prognostic variables were grouped according to categories from the Disability Prevention Framework and the SWiM framework was utilised to synthesise findings. RESULTS: A total of 23 studies were included in the review, including 13 prognostic models and a total of 110 individual prognostic factors. Overall, the evidence for all prognostic factors was weak, although there was some evidence that older age and better recovery expectations were protective of future absence and that previous absence was likely to predict future absences. There was weak evidence for any of the prognostic models in determining future sickness absence. CONCLUSION: Analysis was difficult due to the wide range of measures of both prognostic factors and outcome and the differing timescales for follow-up. Future research should ensure that consistent measures are employed and where possible these should be in-line with those suggested by Ravinskaya et al. (2023).

Musculoskeletal Health and Work: Development and Internal-External Cross-Validation of a Model to Predict Risk of Work Absence and Presenteeism in People Seeking Primary Healthcare.

PURPOSE: To develop and validate prediction models for the risk of future work absence and level of presenteeism, in adults seeking primary healthcare with musculoskeletal disorders (MSD). METHODS: Six studies from the West-Midlands/Northwest regions of England, recruiting adults consulting primary care with MSD were included for model development and internal-external cross-validation (IECV). The primary outcome was any work absence within 6 months of their consultation. Secondary outcomes included 6-month presenteeism and 12-month work absence. Ten candidate predictors were included: age; sex; multisite pain; baseline pain score; pain duration; job type; anxiety/depression; comorbidities; absence in the previous 6 months; and baseline presenteeism. RESULTS: For the 6-month absence model, 2179 participants (215 absences) were available across five studies. Calibration was promising, although varied across studies, with a pooled calibration slope of 0.93 (95% CI: 0.41-1.46) on IECV. On average, the model discriminated well between those with work absence within 6 months, and those without (IECV-pooled C-statistic 0.76, 95% CI: 0.66-0.86). The 6-month presenteeism model, while well calibrated on average, showed some individual-level variation in predictive accuracy, and the 12-month absence model was poorly calibrated due to the small available size for model development. CONCLUSIONS: The developed models predict 6-month work absence and presenteeism with reasonable accuracy, on average, in adults consulting with MSD. The model to predict 12-month absence was poorly calibrated and is not yet ready for use in practice. This information may support shared decision-making and targeting occupational health interventions at those with a higher risk of absence or presenteeism in the 6 months following consultation. Further external validation is needed before the models' use can be recommended or their impact on patients can be fully assessed.

Mechanisms of vocational interventions for return to work from musculoskeletal conditions: a mediation analysis of the MI-NAV trial.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether and to what extent, return to work (RTW) expectancy and workability mediate the effect of two vocational interventions on reducing sickness absence in workers on sick leave from a musculoskeletal condition. METHODS: This is a preplanned mediation analysis of a three-arm parallel randomised controlled trial which included 514 employed working adults with musculoskeletal conditions on sick leave for at least 50% of their contracted work hours for ≥7 weeks. Participants were randomly allocated (1:1:1) to one of three treatment arms; usual case management (UC) (n=174), UC plus motivational interviewing (MI) (n=170) and UC plus a stratified vocational advice intervention (SVAI) (n=170). The primary outcome was the number of sickness absence days over 6 months from randomisation. Hypothesised mediators included RTW expectancy and workability assessed 12 weeks after randomisation. RESULTS: The mediated effect of the MI arm compared with UC on sickness absence days through RTW expectancy was -4.98 days (-8.89 to -1.04), and workability was -3.17 days (-8.55 to 2.32). The mediated effect of the SVAI arm compared with UC on sickness absence days through RTW expectancy was -4.39 days (-7.60 to -1.47), and workability was -3.21 days (-7.90 to 1.50). The mediated effects for workability were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides new evidence for the mechanisms of vocational interventions to reduce sickness absence related to sick leave due to musculoskeletal conditions. Changing an individual's expectation that RTW is likely may result in meaningful reductions in sickness absence days. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03871712.

Effectiveness of adding motivational interviewing or a stratified vocational advice intervention to usual case management on return to work for people with musculoskeletal disorders: the MI-NAV randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate if adding motivational interviewing (MI) or a stratified vocational advice intervention (SVAI) to usual case management (UC), reduced sickness absence over 6 months for workers on sick leave due to musculoskeletal disorders. METHODS: We conducted a three-arm parallel pragmatic randomised controlled trial including 514 employed workers (57% women, median age 49 (range 24-66)), on sick leave for at least 50% of their contracted work hours for ≥7 weeks. All participants received UC. In addition, those randomised to UC+MI were offered two MI sessions from social insurance caseworkers and those randomised to UC+SVAI were offered vocational advice from physiotherapists (participants with low/medium-risk for long-term sickness absence were offered one to two sessions, and those with high-risk were offered three to four sessions). RESULTS: Median sickness absence was 62 days, (95% CI 52 to 71) in the UC arm (n=171), 56 days (95% CI 43 to 70) in the UC+MI arm (n=169) and 49 days (95% CI 38 to 60) in the UC+SVAI arm (n=169). After adjusting for predefined potential confounding factors, the results showed seven fewer days in the UC+MI arm (95% CI -15 to 2) and the UC+SVAI arm (95% CI -16 to 1), compared with the UC arm. The adjusted differences were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: The MI-NAV trial did not show effect on return to work of adding MI or SVAI to UC. The reduction in sickness absence over 6 months was smaller than anticipated, and uncertain due to wide CIs. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03871712.

Implementing a Stratified Vocational Advice Intervention for People on Sick Leave with Musculoskeletal Disorders: A Multimethod Process Evaluation.

Purpose To perform a process evaluation of a stratified vocational advice intervention (SVAI), delivered by physiotherapists in primary care, for people on sick leave with musculoskeletal disorders participating in a randomised controlled trial. The research questions concerned how the SVAI was delivered, the content of the SVAI and the physiotherapists' experiences from delivering the SVAI. Methods We used qualitative and quantitative data from 148 intervention logs documenting the follow-up provided to each participant, recordings of 18 intervention sessions and minutes from 20 meetings with the physiotherapists. The log data were analysed with descriptive statistics. A qualitative content analysis was performed of the recordings, and we identified facilitators and barriers for implementation from the minutes. Results Of 170 participants randomised to the SVAI 152 (89%) received the intervention and 148 logs were completed. According to the logs, 131 participants received the correct number of sessions (all by telephone) and 146 action plans were developed. The physiotherapists did not attend any workplace meetings but contacted stakeholders in 37 cases. The main themes from the recorded sessions were: 'symptom burden', 'managing symptoms', 'relations with the workplace' and 'fear of not being able to manage work'. The physiotherapists felt they were able to build rapport with most participants. However, case management was hindered by the restricted number of sessions permitted according to the protocol. Conclusion Overall, the SVAI was delivered in accordance with the protocol and is therefore likely to be implementable in primary care if it is effective in reducing sick leave.

First Contact Practitioners' (FCPs) and General Practitioners' Perceptions Towards FCPs Delivering Vocational Advice to Patients with Musculoskeletal Conditions: A Qualitative Investigation of the Implementation Potential of the I-SWAP Initiative.

Purpose Musculoskeletal (MSK) pain is a common cause of work absence. The recent SWAP (Study of Work And Pain) randomised controlled trial (RCT) found that a brief vocational advice service for primary care patients with MSK pain led to fewer days' work absence and provided good return-on-investment. The I-SWAP (Implementation of the Study of Work And Pain) initiative aimed to deliver an implementation test-bed of the SWAP vocational advice intervention with First Contact Practitioners (FCP). This entailed adapting the SWAP vocational advice training to fit the FCP role. This qualitative investigation explored the implementation potential of FCPs delivering vocational advice for patients with MSK pain. Methods Semi-structured interviews and focus groups were conducted with 10 FCPs and 5 GPs. Data were analysed thematically and findings explored using Normalisation Process Theory (NPT). Results I-SWAP achieved a degree of 'coherence' (i.e. made sense), with both FCPs and GPs feeling FCPs were well-placed to discuss work issues with these patients. However, for many of the FCPs, addressing or modifying psychosocial and occupational barriers to return-to-work was not considered feasible within FCP consultations, and improving physical function was prioritised. Concerns were also raised that employers would not act on FCPs' recommendations regarding return-to-work. Conclusion FCPs appear well-placed to discuss work issues with MSK patients, and signpost/refer to other services; however, because they often only see patients once they are less suited to deliver other aspects of vocational advice. Future research is needed to explore how best to provide vocational advice in primary care settings.

Study protocol for a randomized controlled trial of the effectiveness of adding motivational interviewing or stratified vocational advice intervention to usual case management on return to work for people with musculoskeletal disorders. The MI-NAV study.

BACKGROUND: Little research exists on the effectiveness of motivational interviewing (MI) on return to work (RTW) in workers on long term sick leave. The objectives of this study protocol is to describe a randomized controlled trial (RCT) with the objectives to compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of usual case management alone with usual case management plus MI or usual case management plus stratified vocational advice intervention (SVAI), on RTW among people on sick leave due to musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders. METHODS: A multi-arm RCT with economic evaluation will be conducted in Norway with recruitment of 450 participants aged 18-67 years on 50-100% sick leave for > 7 weeks due to MSK disorders. Participants will be randomized to either usual case management by the Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) alone, usual case management by NAV plus MI, or usual case management by NAV plus SVAI. Trained caseworkers in NAV will give two MI sessions, and physiotherapists will give 1-4 SVAI sessions depending upon risk of long-term sick leave. The primary outcome is the number of sick leave days from randomization to 6 months follow-up. Secondary outcomes are number of sick leave days at 12 months follow-up, time until sustainable RTW (≥4 weeks of at least 50% of their usual working hours) at 12 months, proportions of participants receiving sick leave benefits during 12 months of follow-up, and MSK symptoms influencing health at 12 months. Cost-utility evaluated by the EuroQoL 5D-5L and cost-benefit analyses will be performed. Fidelity of the interventions will be assessed through audio-recordings of approximately 10% of the intervention sessions. DISCUSSION: The results from this RCT will inform stakeholders involved in supporting RTW due to MSK disorders such as staff within NAV and primary health care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT03871712 registered March 12th 2020.

Acceptability of a vocational advice service for patients consulting in primary care with musculoskeletal pain: A qualitative exploration of the experiences of general practitioners, vocational advisers and patients.

AIMS: Using qualitative interviews, this study explored the experiences of GPs, vocational advisers and patients towards a new vocational advice (VA) service in primary care. METHODS: This study was nested within the Study of Work and Pain (SWAP) cluster randomised controlled trial. The SWAP trial located a VA service within three general practices in Staffordshire. Interviews took place with 10 GPs 12 months after the introduction of the VA service, four vocational advisers whilst the VA service was running and 20 patients on discharge from the VA service. The data were analysed using the constant comparative method, which is a variation of grounded theory. RESULTS: The key factors determining the acceptability and perceived effectiveness of the VA service from the perspective of the three groups of stakeholders were (1) the timing of referrals to the VA, (2) the perceived lack of patient demand for the service and (3) role uncertainty experienced by VAs. CONCLUSIONS: Early vocational intervention may not be appropriate for all musculoskeletal patients with work difficulties. Indeed, many patients felt they did not require the support of a VA, either because they had self-limiting work difficulties and/or already had support mechanisms in place to return to work. Future VA interventions may be better implemented in a targeted way so that appropriate patients are identified with characteristics which can best be addressed by the VA service.

Secular trends in work disability and its relationship to musculoskeletal pain and mental health: a time-trend analysis using five cross-sectional surveys (2002-2010) in the general population.

OBJECTIVES: International evidence suggests that rates of inability to work because of illness can change over time. We hypothesised that one reason for this is that the link between inability to work and common illnesses, such as musculoskeletal pain and mental illness, may also change over time. We have investigated this in a study based in one UK district. METHODS: Five population surveys (spanning 2002-2010) of working-age people aged >50 years and ≤65 years were used. Work disability was defined as a single self-reported item 'not working due to ill-health'. Presence of moderate-severe depressive symptoms was identified from the Mental Component Score of the Short Form-12, and pain from a full-body manikin. Data were analysed with multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: The proportion of people reporting work disability across the surveys declined, from 17.0% in 2002 to 12.1% in 2010. Those reporting work disability, one-third reported regional pain, one-half widespread pain (53%) and two-thirds moderate-severe depressive symptoms (68%). Both factors were independently associated with work disability; their co-occurrence was associated with an almost 20-fold increase in the odds of reporting work disability compared with those with neither condition. CONCLUSIONS: The association of work disability with musculoskeletal pain was stable over time; depressive symptoms became more prominent in persons reporting work disability, but overall prevalence of work disability declined. The frequency and impact of both musculoskeletal pain and depression highlight the need to move beyond symptom-directed approaches towards a more comprehensive model of health and vocational advice for people unable to work because of illness.

Evidence for strategies that improve recruitment and retention of adults aged 65 years and over in randomised trials and observational studies: a systematic review.

Background: adults aged ≥65 years are often excluded from health research studies. Lack of representation reduces generalisability of treatments for this age group. Objective: to evaluate the effectiveness of strategies that improve recruitment and retention of adults aged ≥65 in observational studies and randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Methods: searches conducted in 10 databases for RCTs of recruitment and retention strategies in RCTs or observational studies. Two reviewers screened abstracts and full-text articles for eligibility and extracted data. Studies without separate data for adults aged ≥65 were discarded. Risk of bias assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. Results were synthesised narratively. Results: thirty-two studies were included in the review (n = 75,444). Twelve studies had low risk of bias, of which 10 had successful strategies including: Opt-out versus opt-in increased recruitment (13.6% (n = 261)-18.7% (n = 36) difference; two studies); Advance notification increased retention (1.6% difference, OR 1.45; 95% CI 1.01, 2.10, one study (n = 2,686); 9.1% difference at 4 months, 1.44; 1.08, 1.92, one study (n = 753)); Hand-delivered versus postal surveys increased response (25.1% difference; X2 = 11.40, P < 0.01; one study (n = 139)); Open randomised design versus blinded RCT increased recruitment (1.56; 1.05, 2.33) and retention (13.9% difference; 3.1%, 24.6%) in one study (n = 538). Risk of bias was high/unclear for studies in which incentives or shorter length questionnaires increased response. Discussion: in low risk of bias studies, few of the strategies that improved participation in older adults had been tested in ≥1 study. Opt-out and advance notification strategies improved recruitment and retention, respectively, although an opt-out approach may have ethical limitations. Evidence from single studies limits the generalisability of other strategies.

Absence from work and return to work in people with back pain: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: A considerable proportion of work absence is attributed to back pain, however prospective studies in working populations with back pain are variable in setting and design, and a quantitative summary of current evidence is lacking. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the extent to which differences in setting, country, sampling procedures and methods for data collection are responsible for variation in estimates of work absence and return to work. METHODS: Systematic searches of seven bibliographic databases. Inclusion criteria were: adults in paid employment, with back pain, work absence or return to work during follow-up had been reported. Random effects meta-analysis and meta-regression analysis was carried out to provide summary estimates of work absence and return to work rates. RESULTS: 45 studies were identified for inclusion in the review; 34 were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled estimate for the occurrence of work absence in workers with back pain was 15.5% (95% CI 9.8% to 23.6%, n=17 studies, I(2) 98.1%) in studies with follow-up periods of ≤6 months. The pooled estimate for the proportion of people with back pain returning to work was 68.2% (95% CI 54.8% to 79.1%, n=13, I(2) 99.2%), 85.6% (95% CI 78.2% to 90.7%, n=13, I(2) 98.7%) and 93.3% (95% CI 84.0% to 94.7%, n=10, I(2) 99%), at 1 month, 1-6 months and ≥6 months, respectively. Differences in setting, risk of participation bias and method of assessing work absence explained some of the heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: Pooled estimates suggest high return to work rates, with wide variation in estimates of return to work only partly explained by a priori defined study-level variables. The estimated 32% not back at work at 1 month are at a crucial point for intervention to prevent long term work absence.

Extending the authority for sickness certification beyond the medical profession: the importance of 'boundary work'.

BACKGROUND: The study aimed to explore the views of general practitioners (GPs), nurses and physiotherapists towards extending the role of sickness certification beyond the medical profession in primary care. METHODS: Fifteen GPs, seven nurses and six physiotherapists were selected to achieve varied respondent characteristics including sex, geographical location, service duration and post-graduate specialist training. Constant-comparative qualitative analysis of data from 28 semi-structured telephone interviews was undertaken. RESULTS: The majority of respondents supported the extended role concept; however members of each professional group also rejected the notion. Respondents employed four different legitimacy claims to justify their views and define their occupational boundaries in relation to sickness certification practice. Condition-specific legitimacy, the ability to adopt a holistic approach to sickness certification, system efficiency and control-related arguments were used to different degrees by each occupation. Practical suggestions for the extension of the sickness certification role beyond the medical profession are underpinned by the sociological theory of professional identity. CONCLUSIONS: Extending the authority to certify sickness absence beyond the medical profession is not simply a matter of addressing practical and organisational obstacles. There is also a need to consider the impact on, and preferences of, the specific occupations and their respective boundary claims. This paper explores the implications of extending the sick certification role beyond general practice. We conclude that the main policy challenge of such a move is to a) persuade GPs to relinquish this role (or to share it with other professions), and b) to understand the 'boundary work' involved.

Perceptions of health professionals towards the management of back pain in the context of work: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Musculoskeletal complaints have a significant impact on work in terms of reduced productivity, sickness absence and long term incapacity for work. This study sought to explore GPs' and physiotherapists' perceptions of sickness certification in patients with musculoskeletal problems. METHODS: Eleven (11) GPs were sampled from an existing general practice survey, and six (6) physiotherapists were selected randomly using 'snowball' sampling techniques, through established contacts in local physiotherapy departments. Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with respondents lasting up to 30 minutes. The interviews were audio recorded and transcribed verbatim, following which they were coded using N-Vivo qualitative software and analysed thematically using the constant comparative methodology, where themes were identified and contrasted between and within both groups of respondents. RESULTS: Three themes were identified from the analysis: 1) Approaches to evaluating patients' work problems 2) Perceived ability to manage 'work and pain', and 3) Policies and penalties in the work-place. First, physiotherapists routinely asked patients about their job and work difficulties using a structured (protocol-driven) approach, whilst GPs rarely used such structured measures and were less likely to enquire about patients' work situation. Second, return to work assessments revealed a tension between GPs' gatekeeper and patient advocacy roles, often resolved in favour of patients' concerns and needs. Some physiotherapists perceived that GPs' decisions could be influenced by patients' demand for a sick certificate and their close relationship with patients made them vulnerable to manipulation. Third, the workplace was considered to be a specific source of strain for patients acting as a barrier to work resumption, and over which GPs and physiotherapists could exercise only limited control. CONCLUSION: We conclude that healthcare professionals need to take account of patients' work difficulties, their own perceived ability to offer effective guidance, and consider the 'receptivity' of employment contexts to patients' work problems, in order to ensure a smooth transition back to work.

Rationale, design and methods of the Study of Work and Pain (SWAP): a cluster randomised controlled trial testing the addition of a vocational advice service to best current primary care for patients with musculoskeletal pain (ISRCTN 52269669).

BACKGROUND: Musculoskeletal pain is a major contributor to short and long term work absence. Patients seek care from their general practitioner (GP) and yet GPs often feel ill-equipped to deal with work issues. Providing a vocational case management service in primary care, to support patients with musculoskeletal problems to remain at or return to work, is one potential solution but requires robust evaluation to test clinical and cost-effectiveness. METHODS/DESIGN: This protocol describes a cluster randomised controlled trial, with linked qualitative interviews, to investigate the effect of introducing a vocational advice service into general practice, to provide a structured approach to managing work related issues in primary care patients with musculoskeletal pain who are absent from work or struggling to remain in work. General practices (n = 6) will be randomised to offer best current care or best current care plus a vocational advice service. Adults of working age who are absent from or struggling to remain in work due to a musculoskeletal pain problem will be invited to participate and 330 participants will be recruited. Data collection will be through patient completed questionnaires at baseline, 4 and 12 months. The primary outcome is self-reported work absence at 4 months. Incremental cost-utility analysis will be undertaken to calculate the cost per additional QALY gained and incremental net benefits. A linked interview study will explore the experiences of the vocational advice service from the perspectives of GPs, nurse practitioners (NPs), patients and vocational advisors. DISCUSSION: This paper presents the rationale, design, and methods of the Study of Work And Pain (SWAP) trial. The results of this trial will provide evidence to inform primary care practice and guide the development of services to provide support for musculoskeletal pain patients with work-related issues. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN52269669.

Healthcare resource utilisation and economic burden attributable to back pain in primary care: A matched case-control study in the United Kingdom.

Objective: Incremental healthcare costs attributed to back pain, and characterisation by patient and clinical factors have rarely been documented. This study aimed to assess annual healthcare resource utilisation and costs associated with back pain in primary care. Methods: Using the IQVIA Medical Research Data (IMRD), patients with back pain were identified (study period: 01 January 2006 to 31 December 2015) using diagnostic records and analgesics prescriptions (n = 133,341), and propensity score matched 1:1 to patients without back pain. The annual incremental costs of back pain associated with consultations and prescriptions were estimated and extrapolated to a national level. Sensitivity analysis was conducted by restricting the study population to the most recent diagnosis of back pain. Variations in cost were assessed stratified by gender, age-groups, deprivation, and comorbidity categories. Results: The mean age was 57 years, and 62% were females in both the case and control groups. The total incremental healthcare costs associated with back pain was £32.5 million in 2015 (£35.9 million in 2020), with per-patient cost of £244 (£265 in 2020) per year. On a national level, this translated to an estimated £3.2 billion (£3.5 billion in 2020). Eighty percent of the costs were attributed to consultations; and female gender, older age, higher deprivation, and higher comorbidity were all associated with increased mean healthcare costs of patients with back pain. Conclusion: Our findings confirm the substantial healthcare costs attributed to back pain, even with primacy care costs only. The data also revealed significant cost variations across socio-demographic and clinical factors.

Constructing therapeutic support and negotiating competing agendas: A discourse analysis of vocational advice provided to individuals who are absent from work due to ill-health.

Work participation is known to benefit people's overall health and wellbeing, but accessing vocational support during periods of sickness absence to facilitate return-to-work can be challenging for many people. In this study, we explored how vocational advice was delivered by trained vocational support workers (VSWs) to people who had been signed-off from work by their General Practitioner (GP), as part of a feasibility study testing a vocational advice intervention. We investigated the discursive and interactional strategies employed by VSWs and people absent from work, to pursue their joint and respective goals. Theme-oriented discourse analysis was carried out on eight VSW consultations. These consultations were shown to be complex interactions, during which VSWs utilised a range of strategies to provide therapeutic support in discussions about work. These included; signalling empathy with the person's perspective; positively evaluating their personal qualities and prior actions; reflecting individuals' views back to them to show they had been heard and understood; fostering a collaborative approach to action-planning; and attempting to reassure individuals about their return-to-work concerns. Some individuals were reluctant to engage in return-to-work planning, resulting in back-and-forth interactional negotiations between theirs and the VSW's individual goals and agendas. This led to VSWs putting in considerable interactional 'work' to subtly shift the discussion towards return-to-work planning. The discursive strategies we have identified have implications for training health professionals to facilitate work-orientated conversations with their patients, and will also inform training provided to VSWs ahead of a randomised controlled trial.

The influence of employment social support for risk and prognosis in nonspecific back pain: a systematic review and critical synthesis.

PURPOSE: To examine the influence of employment social support type (e.g. co-worker, supervisor, general support) on risk of occurrence of low back pain, and prognosis (e.g. recovery, return to work status) for those who have low back pain. METHODS: Systematic search of seven databases (MEDLINE, Embase, PsychINFO, CINAHL, IBSS, AMED and BNI) for prospective or case-control studies reporting findings on employment social support in populations with nonspecific back pain. Data extraction and quality assessment were carried out on included studies. A systematic critical synthesis was carried out on extracted data. RESULTS: Thirty-two articles were included that describe 46 findings on the effect of employment social support on risk of and prognosis of back pain. Findings show that there is no effect of co-worker, supervisor or general work support on risk of new onset back pain. Weak effects of employment support were found for recovery and return to work outcomes; greater levels of co-worker support and general work support were found to be associated with less time to recovery or return to work. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence suggests that the association between employment support and prognosis may be subject to influence from wider concepts related to the employment context. This review discusses these wider issues and offers directions for future research.

Development and External Validation of Individualized Prediction Models for Pain Intensity Outcomes in Patients With Neck Pain, Low Back Pain, or Both in Primary Care Settings.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to develop and externally validate multivariable prediction models for future pain intensity outcomes to inform targeted interventions for patients with neck or low back pain in primary care settings. METHODS: Model development data were obtained from a group of 679 adults with neck or low back pain who consulted a participating United Kingdom general practice. Predictors included self-report items regarding pain severity and impact from the STarT MSK Tool. Pain intensity at 2 and 6 months was modeled separately for continuous and dichotomized outcomes using linear and logistic regression, respectively. External validation of all models was conducted in a separate group of 586 patients recruited from a similar population with patients' predictor information collected both at point of consultation and 2 to 4 weeks later using self-report questionnaires. Calibration and discrimination of the models were assessed separately using STarT MSK Tool data from both time points to assess differences in predictive performance. RESULTS: Pain intensity and patients reporting their condition would last a long time contributed most to predictions of future pain intensity conditional on other variables. On external validation, models were reasonably well calibrated on average when using tool measurements taken 2 to 4 weeks after consultation (calibration slope = 0.848 [95% CI = 0.767 to 0.928] for 2-month pain intensity score), but performance was poor using point-of-consultation tool data (calibration slope for 2-month pain intensity score of 0.650 [95% CI = 0.549 to 0.750]). CONCLUSION: Model predictive accuracy was good when predictors were measured 2 to 4 weeks after primary care consultation, but poor when measured at the point of consultation. Future research will explore whether additional, nonmodifiable predictors improve point-of-consultation predictive performance. IMPACT: External validation demonstrated that these individualized prediction models were not sufficiently accurate to recommend their use in clinical practice. Further research is required to improve performance through inclusion of additional nonmodifiable risk factors.

Challenges to remaining at work with common health problems: what helps and what influence do organisational policies have?

INTRODUCTION: Common health problems have a significant impact on work productivity (presenteeism), and sickness absence. The aim of this study was to examine the attitudes and beliefs of employees in the public sector about common health problems and work using the Flags system as a conceptual framework to identify problems and potential solutions. METHOD: 63 employees took part in 14 focus groups in two public sector organisations. Discussions were audio-recorded, transcribed, and analysed thematically using NVivo. RESULTS: The study confirmed the importance of heath-focused clinical factors (Yellow flags), perceptions of work (Blue flags), and more objective characteristics of work and organisational policies (Black flags), which emerged as major themes. The social and moral norms surrounding sickness absence and presenteeism were frequently discussed, including the impact of absence on colleagues, guilt, legitimising illness, and trust. There were interactions between the different Flags, often mediated by managers via their relationships with employees and their role in implementing organisational policy. CONCLUSIONS: The Flags system was useful as a conceptual framework in this context for identifying a number of obstacles to working with health problems, many of which were potentially modifiable on worker, workplace, or wider systems levels.

What happens to work if you're unwell? Beliefs and attitudes of managers and employees with musculoskeletal pain in a public sector setting.

INTRODUCTION: Musculoskeletal complaints can impact on work in terms of productivity, sickness absence and long term incapacity for work. While employee attitudes and knowledge can drive absenteeism and presenteeism behaviour, managers also play an important role in influencing this via the quality of their relationships with employees and their role in implementing organisational policies and procedures. The aims of this study were to investigate the beliefs and attitudes of managers and employees with musculoskeletal pain about sickness absence, presenteeism, and return to work and to identify areas of consensus and conflict. METHODS: 18 employees with musculoskeletal pain and 20 managers from two large public sector organisations in South Wales, UK, took part in individual face-to-face interviews. Data were analysed thematically using NVivo. RESULTS: Employees' and managers' reports indicated that there was a strong culture of presenteeism in these organisations. Establishing the legitimacy of complaints was a salient theme for both managers and employees, although their views were in conflict. Employees reported feeling that contact with employers was intrusive when sickness absence was legitimate. Managers were supportive of those who they felt were 'genuinely' unwell, but also cited examples of people 'working the system' and not reporting absences appropriately. CONCLUSIONS: These issues require careful consideration of the rights and responsibilities of both employees and employers, where strategies for improving communication, trust, and creating an environment conducive to successful return to work need to be investigated.