Multi-organ involvement caused by Scedosporium apiospermum infection after near drowning: a case report and literature review.

BACKGROUND: Scedosporium apiospermum (S. apiospermum) is a rare fungal pathogen that causes disseminated infections. It rarely affects immunocompetent individuals and has a poor prognosis. CASE PRESENTATION: A 37-year-old woman presented with multiple lesions in the lungs, brain, and eyes, shortly after near drowning in a car accident. The primary symptoms were chest tightness, limb weakness, headache, and poor vision in the left eye. S. apiospermum infection was confirmed by metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) of intracranial abscess drainage fluid, although intracranial metastases were initially considered. After systemic treatment with voriconazole, her symptoms improved significantly; however, she lost vision in her left eye due to delayed diagnosis. CONCLUSION: While S. apiospermum infection is rare, it should be considered even in immunocompetent patients. Prompt diagnosis and treatment are essential. Voriconazole may be an effective treatment option.

Mismatch of MRI White Matter Hyperintensities and Gait Function in Patients With Cerebral Small Vessel Disease.

BACKGROUND: Cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD) is closely related to gait disorders. Previous studies have found a negative correlation between the severity of MRI white matter hyperintensities (WMH) and gait speed. However, not every individual with WMH experiences a gait disorder. PURPOSE: To investigate the mechanisms underlying the mismatch between the severity of MRI WMH and gait impairment, in particular in subjects with severe WMH (Fazekas 3, scale 0-3) resulting from vascular disease. STUDY TYPE: Cohort. POPULATION: 54 subjects with severe WMH and gait disorder (WMH-GD; 29 males) and 114 subjects with severe WMH with no gait disorder (WMH-nGD; 60 males). FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE: 3T/diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), and T1-weighted, T2-weighted, FLAIR, DWI, SWI. ASSESSMENT: Trace-based spatial statistics analysis (TBSS) approach (fractional anisotropy, FA; mean diffusivity; radial diffusivity; axial diffusivity); Cognitive assessment; Conventional MRI markers of CSVD (WMH, enlarged perivascular spaces, lacunae, and cerebral microbleeds); Gait parameters (gait speed; cadence; stride length; gait cycle duration; step duration; time-up-and-go test, TUG). Gait disorder was defined as a TUG time exceeding 12 sec. STATISTICAL TESTS: The t-tests, Mann-Whitney U tests, Chi-square tests, and partial correlation analysis (Pearson or Spearman) were used. P < 0.05 with threshold-free cluster enhancement corrected was considered statistically significant for TBSS. RESULTS: After adjusting for age, sex, height, and other conventional MRI markers of CSVD, the WMH-nGD group showed significantly decreased FA values in the corpus callosum, bilateral superior longitudinal fasciculus, left corona radiata, and left posterior thalamic radiation. There was a significant association between FA values and TUG time, gait speed, and stride length in multiple WM tracts, independent of other conventional CSVD markers. DATA CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence for microstructural damage of specific fibers in WMH-GD subjects compared to WMH-nGD subjects. This may explain the mismatch between WMH and gait impairment in subjects with severe WMH. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 1 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 3.

Co-occurrence of polyneuritis crainials and visual impairment: a case report and literature review.

BACKGROUND: Polyneuritis cranialis (PNC) with the disease characteristics of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) in addition to both ocular and bulbar weakness in the absence of limb paralysis or ataxia is defined as an unusual variant of GBS. As evidence of central nervous system (CNS) involvement, visual impairment is an unusual finding complicating with GBS spectrum disorders and has never been reported in patients with PNC. METHODS: We describe a very rare case who clinically presented with progressive multiple cranial nerve palsy and visual impairment. Furthermore, a literature search of concurrent GBS and optic neuritis (ON) as well as PNC attributed to GBS was conducted. RESULTS: A diagnosis of PNC was considered due to the typical clinical characteristics as well as the presence of cerebrospinal fluid cytoalbumin dissociation and serum antibodies against gangliosides. The clinical manifestations and the bilateral optic nerve involvement in brain magnetic resonance imaging further suggested possible optic neuritis (ON). The patient received treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin followed by short-term use of corticosteroids and finally achieved a full recovery. Thirty-two previously reported cases (17 women, mean age 40) of concurrent GBS and ON and 20 cases of PNC (5 women, mean age 40) were analyzed. We further provided a comprehensive discussion on the potential etiologies, clinical features, therapeutic strategies, and prognosis. CONCLUSIONS: This rare case with the co-occurrence of PNC and visual impairment and the related literature review may help clinicians advance the understanding of GBS spectrum disorders and make appropriate diagnoses and treatment decisions for the rare variants and CNS complications of GBS.

Triglyceride-Glucose Index and the Risk of Stroke: A Systematic Review and Dose-Response Meta-Analysis.

Insulin resistance (IR) is an independent risk factor of cardiovascular disease. Recent research has proposed a new inexpensive and reliable indicator of IR: triglyceride glucose index (TyG index). We aim to evaluate the dose-response association between the TyG index and stroke through meta-analysis. Literature published from inception until October 2021 were searched in PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library and Web of science. Cohort studies published in English and focusing on the association between the TyG index and stroke were included in our meta-analysis. I2 statistic and Chi-square were used to assess the heterogeneity. When I2≥30% or p≤0.10, the random-effect model was used to pool the effect; otherwise, we chose the fixed-effect model. Eleven cohort studies, including 5 721 077 subjects and 95 490 stroke patients, were included in our study. After pooling the effect adjusted by multiple confounders, we found that compared with the lowest baseline TyG index group, the highest one was independently associated with increased stroke risk (RR: 1.27; 95% CI, 1.24 to 1.29; I2=6%). Dose-response meta-analysis showed that the association between the two variables had a non-linear trend (p-nonlinearity<0.0001; p-heterogeneity=0.28). Subgroup analysis showed that the risk of ischemic stroke was positively correlated with TyG index (RR: 1.48; 95% CI, 1.34 to 1.62; I2=15%), while we did not observe this correlation in hemorrhagic stroke patients. In patients with type 2 diabetes and acute coronary syndrome, the TyG index was linearly correlated with incident strokes. In conclusion, elevated TyG index is the independent risk factor for incident strokes (especially ischemic stroke).

Intravenous Alteplase in a Patient With Acute Ischemic Stroke Subsequent to Purulent Meningitis: A Case Report and Literature Review.

This report highlights the outcome of intravenous alteplase in a patient with acute ischemic stroke subsequent to purulent meningitis. This type of meningitis has not been defined in the guideline for early treatment of acute ischemic stroke. A 58-year-old woman with purulent meningitis developed a sudden stroke and was admitted to our emergency department. She received 0.6 mg/kg of alteplase intravenously 90 minutes after stroke onset. At 1 hour after thrombolysis, the patient's National Institute of Health Stroke Scale score improved from 9 to 4. At 2 hours, she developed a sudden severe headache that progressed to coma, and her National Institute Health Stroke Scale score rapidly deteriorated to 20. Cranial computed tomography revealed subarachnoid hemorrhage and multiple bilateral lobar brain hemorrhages. She died of a cerebellar tonsillar hernia. Intravenous alteplase might be hazardous in patients with acute ischemic stroke subsequent to purulent meningitis.

Arterial Tortuosity and Its Correlation with White Matter Hyperintensities in Acute Ischemic Stroke.

Introduction: The association between arterial tortuosity and acute ischemic stroke (AIS) has been reported, but showing inconsistent results. We hypothesized that tortuosity of extra- and intracranial large arteries might be higher in AIS patients. Furthermore, we explored the correlation between artery tortuosity and white matter hyperintensity (WMH) severity in AIS patients. Methods: 166 AIS patients identified as large artery atherosclerosis, and 83 control subjects were enrolled. All subjects received three-dimensional computed tomography angiography (CTA). Arterial tortuosity was evaluated using the tortuosity index. WMHs were evaluated using magnetic resonance imaging in all AIS patients. Results: AIS patients showed significantly increased arterial tortuosity index relative to controls, including left carotid artery (CA) (p = 0.001), right CA (p < 0.001), left common carotid artery (CCA) (p < 0.001), right CCA (p < 0.001), left internal carotid artery (p = 0.001), right internal carotid artery (p = 0.01), left extracranial internal carotid artery (EICA) (p < 0.001), right EICA (p = 0.01), and vertebral artery dominance (VAD) (p = 0.001). The tortuosity of all above arteries was associated with the presence of AIS. AIS patients with moderate or severe WMHs had a higher tortuosity index in left CA (p = 0.005), left CCA (p = 0.003), left EICA (p = 0.07), and VAD (p = 0.001). In addition, the tortuosity of left EICA and VAD was associated with WMH severity in AIS patients. Conclusions: Increased extra- and intracranial large arteries tortuosity is associated with AIS. The tortuosity of left carotid artery system and vertebral artery may be the independent risk factors for WMH severity in AIS patients. Clinical Trial Registration. This trial is registered with NCT03122002 (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov).

Immunologic memory to SARS-CoV-2 in convalescent COVID-19 patients at 1 year postinfection.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the complexities of immune memory to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is key to gain insights into the durability of protective immunity against reinfection. OBJECTIVE: We sought to evaluate the immune memory to SARS-CoV-2 in convalescent patients with longer follow-up time. METHODS: SARS-CoV-2-specific humoral and cellular responses were assessed in convalescent patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at 1 year postinfection. RESULTS: A total of 78 convalescent patients with COVID-19 (26 moderate, 43 severe, and 9 critical) were recruited after 1 year of recovery. The positive rates of both anti-receptor-binding domain and antinucleocapsid antibodies were 100%, whereas we did not observe a statistical difference in antibody levels among different severity groups. Accordingly, the prevalence of neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) reached 93.59% in convalescent patients. Although nAb titers displayed an increasing trend in convalescent patients with increased severity, the difference failed to achieve statistical significance. Notably, there was a significant correlation between nAb titers and anti-receptor-binding domain levels. Interestingly, SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells could be robustly maintained in convalescent patients, and their number was positively correlated with both nAb titers and anti-receptor-binding domain levels. Amplified SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4+ T cells mainly produced a single cytokine, accompanying with increased expression of exhaustion markers including PD-1, Tim-3, TIGIT, CTLA-4, and CD39, while the proportion of multifunctional cells was low. CONCLUSIONS: Robust SARS-CoV-2-specific humoral and cellular responses are maintained in convalescent patients with COVID-19 at 1 year postinfection. However, the dysfunction of SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4+ T cells supports the notion that vaccination is needed in convalescent patients for preventing reinfection.

Safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of a recombinant adenovirus type-5 vectored COVID-19 vaccine: a dose-escalation, open-label, non-randomised, first-in-human trial.

BACKGROUND: A vaccine to protect against COVID-19 is urgently needed. We aimed to assess the safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of a recombinant adenovirus type-5 (Ad5) vectored COVID-19 vaccine expressing the spike glycoprotein of a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) strain. METHODS: We did a dose-escalation, single-centre, open-label, non-randomised, phase 1 trial of an Ad5 vectored COVID-19 vaccine in Wuhan, China. Healthy adults aged between 18 and 60 years were sequentially enrolled and allocated to one of three dose groups (5 × 1010, 1 × 1011, and 1·5 × 1011 viral particles) to receive an intramuscular injection of vaccine. The primary outcome was adverse events in the 7 days post-vaccination. Safety was assessed over 28 days post-vaccination. Specific antibodies were measured with ELISA, and the neutralising antibody responses induced by vaccination were detected with SARS-CoV-2 virus neutralisation and pseudovirus neutralisation tests. T-cell responses were assessed by enzyme-linked immunospot and flow-cytometry assays. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04313127. FINDINGS: Between March 16 and March 27, 2020, we screened 195 individuals for eligibility. Of them, 108 participants (51% male, 49% female; mean age 36·3 years) were recruited and received the low dose (n=36), middle dose (n=36), or high dose (n=36) of the vaccine. All enrolled participants were included in the analysis. At least one adverse reaction within the first 7 days after the vaccination was reported in 30 (83%) participants in the low dose group, 30 (83%) participants in the middle dose group, and 27 (75%) participants in the high dose group. The most common injection site adverse reaction was pain, which was reported in 58 (54%) vaccine recipients, and the most commonly reported systematic adverse reactions were fever (50 [46%]), fatigue (47 [44%]), headache (42 [39%]), and muscle pain (18 [17%]. Most adverse reactions that were reported in all dose groups were mild or moderate in severity. No serious adverse event was noted within 28 days post-vaccination. ELISA antibodies and neutralising antibodies increased significantly at day 14, and peaked 28 days post-vaccination. Specific T-cell response peaked at day 14 post-vaccination. INTERPRETATION: The Ad5 vectored COVID-19 vaccine is tolerable and immunogenic at 28 days post-vaccination. Humoral responses against SARS-CoV-2 peaked at day 28 post-vaccination in healthy adults, and rapid specific T-cell responses were noted from day 14 post-vaccination. Our findings suggest that the Ad5 vectored COVID-19 vaccine warrants further investigation. FUNDING: National Key R&D Program of China, National Science and Technology Major Project, and CanSino Biologics.

Deficiency of microglial Hv1 channel is associated with activation of autophagic pathway and ROS production in LPC-induced demyelination mouse model.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an immune-mediated demyelinated disease of the central nervous system. Activation of microglia is involved in the pathogenesis of myelin loss. OBJECTIVE: This study is focused on the role of Hv1 in regulating demyelination and microglial activation through reactive oxygen species (ROS) production after lysophosphatidylcholine (LPC)-mediated demyelination. We also explored autophagy in this process. METHODS: A model of demyelination using two-point LPC injection into the corpus callosum was established. LFB staining, immunofluorescence, Western blot, and electron microscopy were used to study the severity of demyelination. Microglial phenotype and autophagy were detected by immunofluorescence and Western blot. Morris water maze was used to test spatial learning and memory ability. RESULTS: We have identified that LPC-mediated myelin damage was reduced by Hv1 deficiency. Furthermore, we found that ROS and autophagy of microglia increased in the demyelination region, which was also inhibited by Hv1 knockout. CONCLUSION: These results suggested that microglial Hv1 deficiency ameliorates demyelination through inhibition of ROS-mediated autophagy and microglial phenotypic transformation.

Acute ischemic stroke with contralateral convexal subarachnoid hemorrhage: two cases report.

BACKGROUND: Convexal subarachnoid hemorrhage (cSAH) is characterized by isolated bleeding in one or a few adjacent sulci and has diverse etiologies and symptoms. Acute ischemic stroke co-occurring with cSAH has been infrequently reported. Nearly all cases of cSAH have been described to occur on the side with acute ischemic stroke, and it is unusual for cSAH to occur on the opposite side of the infarct territory. CASE PRESENTATION: Our report presents two cases of acute ischemic stroke associated with contralateral cSAH. The first patient had left atherosclerotic internal carotid artery (ICA) occlusion with developing right parietal cSAH. The other patient developed left parietal cSAH in the setting of right ICA occlusion caused by cardiogenic embolism with acute right cerebral hemisphere infarction. Both patients remained clinically stable with good prognosis after antithrombotic treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Our report suggest that cSAH may simultaneously occur on the opposite side of an infarction. Although there is no consensus on the etiology and treatment of this rare phenomenon, cSAH did not lead to a poor outcome in our patients.

Isolated brainstem involvement in posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome: a case report and review of the literature.

Posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome (PRES) is a clinical-radiological syndrome, reversible vasogenic edema predominantly within parieto-occipital regions. However, isolated brainstem involvement in PRES has been rarely reported, little is known about its clinical manifestations, radiological features and outcomes. We reported a case with PRES with only brainstem involvement and performed a systematic review of published cases. Twenty-four cases, together with our case, were included in the analysis. Mean age was 43 years and 63% were males. Hypertension (50%), nephropathy (25%) and chemotherapy (21%) were the major risk factors. All patients except two had acute hypertension and 50% of patients had renal dysfunction at onset. The most common symptoms were altered consciousness (46%) and headache (46%), Seizure was only presented in 21% of patients. All patients except two were treated with antihypertension. Most patients recovered to their neurological baseline. Clinicians should recognize this unique variant finding in PRES. which always affects males with severe hypertension, especially combined with renal dysfunction. Antihypertensive treatment is the most widely used therapy. Outcome is usually well.

Subacute Combined Degeneration: A Retrospective Study of 68 Cases with Short-Term Follow-Up.

PURPOSE: The study aimed to analyze the clinical characteristics, laboratory test results, neuroimaging findings, and outcomes in patients diagnosed with subacute combined degeneration (SCD). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 68 patients with SCD who had been appropriately treated for no less than 6 months were included in our study. Histories, results of routine blood tests, biochemical indices, serum vitamin B12 levels, and spinal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings from the patients were studied and analyzed. Clinical signs and symptoms, graded using a functional disability rating scale, were scored at the time of admission and 3 and 6 months after admission. RESULTS: Limb numbness, limb weakness, and gait disturbances were the most common symptoms in patients with SCD. All patients showed clinical improvement to different degrees at the follow-up visits after vitamin B12 treatment. No differences in rating score were found in patients grouped by sex, hemoglobin level, serum vitamin B12, or MRI manifestations at the time of admission or at the follow-up visits. Younger patients and those with shorter disease courses had better rating scores at the short-term follow-up visits. CONCLUSION: Anemia, low levels of serum vitamin B12, and MRI abnormalities in the spinal cord are not expected to be associated with worse clinical manifestations. The age of onset and course of disease are important in evaluating the short-term prognosis of patients with SCD.

Effectiveness of strengthened stimulation during acupuncture for the treatment of Bell palsy: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The traditional Chinese theory of acupuncture emphasizes that the intensity of acupuncture must reach a threshold to generate de qi, which is necessary to achieve the best therapeutic effect. De qi is an internal compound sensation of soreness, tingling, fullness, aching, cool, warmth and heaviness, and a radiating sensation at and around the acupoints. However, the notion that de qi must be achieved for maximum benefit has not been confirmed by modern scientific evidence. METHODS: We performed a prospective multicentre randomized controlled trial involving patients with Bell palsy. Patients were randomly assigned to the de qi (n = 167) or control (n = 171) group. Both groups received acupuncture: in the de qi group, the needles were manipulated manually until de qi was reached, whereas in the control group, the needles were inserted without any manipulation. All patients received prednisone as a basic treatment. The primary outcome was facial nerve function at month 6. We also assessed disability and quality of life 6 months after randomization. RESULTS: After 6 months, patients in the de qi group had better facial function (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 4.16, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.23-7.78), better disability assessment (differences of least squares means 9.80, 95% CI 6.29-13.30) and better quality of life (differences of least squares means 29.86, 95% CI 22.33-37.38). Logistic regression analysis showed a positive effect of the de qi score on facial-nerve function (adjusted OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.04-1.09). INTERPRETATION: Among patients with Bell palsy, acupuncture with strong stimulation that elicited de qi had a greater therapeutic effect, and stronger intensity of de qi was associated with the better therapeutic effects. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov no. NCT00685789.

Asymmetry of Lacunae between Brain Hemispheres Is Associated with Atherosclerotic Occlusions of Middle Cerebral Artery.

Cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD) commonly coexists with intracranial atherosclerotic stenosis (ICAS). Previous studies have tried to evaluate the relationship between ICAS and CSVD; however, they have yielded varied conclusions. Furthermore, the methodology of these studies is not very rigorous, as they have evaluated the association between ICAS and CSVD of bilateral hemispheres rather than the affected hemisphere. Unilateral middle cerebral artery atherosclerotic occlusion (uni-MCAO) is a favorable model to solve this problem. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Patients with uni-MCAO were retrospectively observed. Imaging characteristics, including lacunae, white matter hyperintensities (WMH), enlarged perivascular spaces (EPVS), and cerebral microbleeds (CMBs), were compared between the hemisphere ipsilateral to the MCAO and the contralateral hemisphere. RESULTS: A total of 219 patients (median age 57 years; 156 males) were enrolled. Compared with the contralateral side, increased quality of lacunae (median, IQR, 0, 2 vs. 0, 1; p < 0.001) and elevated CSVD score (median, IQR, 0, 1 vs. 0, 1; p = 0.004) were found in the occluded hemisphere. No significant differences were shown for WMH, EPVS, and CMBs. CONCLUSIONS: Uni-MCAO has a higher prevalence of lacunae in the ipsilateral hemisphere. However, no interhemispheric differences in WMH, EPVS, or CMBs were found.

Effect of PCSK9 inhibition in combination with statin therapy on intracranial atherosclerotic stenosis: A high-resolution MRI study.

Introduction: Intracranial atherosclerotic stenosis (ICAS) is a common cause of stroke worldwide. Evolocumab, a proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type-9 inhibitor (PCSK9i), effectively lowers low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and produces favorable changes in coronary atherosclerosis. This study aimed to determine the effects of PCSK9i on intracranial plaques in moderate-intensity statin-treated individuals with ICAS. Methods: This prospective, observational study monitored the imaging and clinical outcomes of individuals with ICAS who were consecutively treated with moderate-intensity statins with or without PCSK9i. Individuals underwent monthly visits and repeat high-resolution MRI (HR-MRI) at week 12. The primary outcome was a change in HR-MRI after 12 weeks of treatment and the secondary outcome was major vascular events during follow-up. Results: Forty-nine individuals were studied (PCSK9i group: 26 individuals with 28 abnormal vascular regions; statin group: 23 with 27 regions). The PCSK9i group showed a significant reduction in the normalized wall index (0.83 vs. 0.86, p = 0.028) and stenosis degree (65.5 vs. 74.2%, p = 0.01). Similarly, a greater percentage of individuals with a good response to the efficacy of treatment were treated in the PCSK9i group than that in the statin group (75 vs. 44.4%, p = 0.021). The incidence of major vascular events was overall similar between the groups. The treatment options (OR = 8.441, p = 0.01) and prior diabetes (OR = 0.061, p = 0.001) were significantly associated with the efficacy of treatment. Discussion: Statin and PCSK9i combination treatment stabilized intracranial atherosclerotic plaques more often compared to statins alone, as documented by HR-MRI. Further study is warranted to determine if combination treatment improves clinical outcomes in ICAS.

Elevated Plasma Oligomeric Amyloid ß-42 Is Associated with Cognitive Impairments in Cerebral Small Vessel Disease.

Due to the heterogeneity of amyloid ß-42 (Aß42) species, the potential correlation between plasma oligomeric Aß42 (oAß42) and cognitive impairments in cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD) remains unclear. Herein, a sandwich ELISA for the specific detection of Aß42 oligomers (oAß42) and total Aß42 (tAß42) was developed based on sequence- and conformation-specific antibody pairs for the evaluation of plasma samples from a Chinese CSVD community cohort. After age and gender matching, 3-Tesla magnetic resonance imaging and multidimensional cognitive assessment were conducted in 134 CSVD patients and equal controls. The results showed that plasma tAß42 and oAß42 levels were significantly elevated in CSVD patients. By regression analysis, these elevations were correlated with the presence of CSVD and its imaging markers (i.e., white matter hyperintensities). Plasma Aß42 tests further strengthened the predictive power of vascular risk factors for the presence of CSVD. Relative to tAß42, oAß42 showed a closer correlation with memory domains evaluated by neuropsychological tests. In conclusion, this sensitive ELISA protocol facilitated the detection of plasma Aß42; Aß42, especially its oligomeric form, can serve as a biosensor for the presence of CSVD and associated cognitive impairments represented by memory domains.

Development and external evaluation of predictions models for mortality of COVID-19 patients using machine learning method.

To predict the mortality of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We collected clinical data of COVID-19 patients between January 18 and March 29 2020 in Wuhan, China . Gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), logistic regression (LR) model, and simplified LR were built to predict the mortality of COVID-19. We also evaluated different models by computing area under curve (AUC), accuracy, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) under fivefold cross-validation. A total of 2924 patients were included in our evaluation, with 257 (8.8%) died and 2667 (91.2%) survived during hospitalization. Upon admission, there were 21 (0.7%) mild cases, 2051 (70.1%) moderate case, 779 (26.6%) severe cases, and 73 (2.5%) critically severe cases. The GBDT model exhibited the highest fivefold AUC, which was 0.941, followed by LR (0.928) and LR-5 (0.913). The diagnostic accuracies of GBDT, LR, and LR-5 were 0.889, 0.868, and 0.887, respectively. In particular, the GBDT model demonstrated the highest sensitivity (0.899) and specificity (0.889). The NPV of all three models exceeded 97%, while their PPV values were relatively low, resulting in 0.381 for LR, 0.402 for LR-5, and 0.432 for GBDT. Regarding severe and critically severe cases, the GBDT model also performed the best with a fivefold AUC of 0.918. In the external validation test of the LR-5 model using 72 cases of COVID-19 from Brunei, leukomonocyte (%) turned to show the highest fivefold AUC (0.917), followed by urea (0.867), age (0.826), and SPO2 (0.704). The findings confirm that the mortality prediction performance of the GBDT is better than the LR models in confirmed cases of COVID-19. The performance comparison seems independent of disease severity. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at(10.1007/s00521-020-05592-1).

Prevalence and risk factors of stroke in China: a national serial cross-sectional study from 2003 to 2018.

Stroke imposes a substantial burden worldwide. With the rapid economic and lifestyle transition in China, trends of the prevalence of stroke across different geographic regions in China remain largely unknown. Capitalizing on the data in the National Health Services Surveys (NHSS), we assessed the prevalence and risk factors of stroke in China from 2003 to 2018. In this study, data from 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018 NHSS were collected. Stroke cases were based on participants' self-report of a previous diagnosis by clinicians. We estimated the trends of stroke prevalence for the overall population and subgroups by age, sex, and socioeconomic factors, then compared across different geographic regions. We applied multivariable logistic regression to assess associations between stroke and risk factors. The number of participants aged 15 years or older were 154,077, 146,231, 230,067, and 212,318 in 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018, respectively, among whom, 1435, 1996, 3781, and 6069 were stroke patients. The age and sex standardized prevalence per 100,000 individuals was 879 in 2003, 1100 in 2008, 1098 in 2013, and 1613 in 2018. Prevalence per 100,000 individuals in rural areas increased from 669 in 2003 to 1898 in 2018, while urban areas had a stable trend from 1261 in 2003 to 1365 in 2018. Across geographic regions, the central region consistently had the highest prevalence, but the western region has an alarmingly increasing trend from 623/100,000 in 2003 to 1898/100,000 in 2018 (P trend<0.001), surpassing the eastern region in 2013. Advanced age, male sex, rural area, central region, hypertension, diabetes, depression, low education and income level, retirement or unemployment, excessive physical activity, and unimproved sanitation facilities were significantly associated with stroke. In conclusion, the increasing prevalence of stroke in China was primarily driven by economically underdeveloped regions. It is important to develop targeted prevention programs in underdeveloped regions. Besides traditional risk factors, more attention should be paid to nontraditional risk factors to improve the prevention of stroke.