Analysing monkeypox epidemic drivers: Policy simulation and multi-index modelling across 39 nations.

Background: This study aimed to analyse the drivers of the monkeypox (Mpox) epidemic and policy simulation to support health care policies against the Mpox epidemic. Methods: We established a three-round selection mechanism for 164 factors using Lasso and negative binomial regression to investigate the correlation between significant drivers and the cumulative confirmed cases of Mpox. Policy simulation for each driver was evaluated, and the varying effects of implementation at different times were examined. Results: HIV/AIDS prevalence and air transport passengers carried were significant determinants of the risk of the Mpox epidemic across various countries, with regression coefficients of 1.417 and 0.766, respectively. A decrease in HIV/AIDS prevalence by 10, 20, 30, and 40% corresponded to reductions in the number of Mpox cases by 6.28, 6.55, 6.87, and 7.26%, respectively. Similarly, 20, 40, 60, and 80% travel restrictions led to reductions in Mpox cases by 7.16, 15.63, 26.28%, and 41.46%, respectively. Controlling air transport passengers carried in the first month could postpone outbreak onset by 0.5-2.0 months. Conclusions: Mpox prevention and control policies should primarily focus on travel restrictions during high disease-risk periods and flight suspensions from high-risk nations in combination with regular HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment strategies.

Phenolics and Terpenoids Profiling in Diverse Loquat Fruit Varieties and Systematic Assessment of Their Mitigation of Alcohol-Induced Oxidative Stress.

To compare and investigate the phenolic compounds in the peel and flesh of loquat (Eriobotrya japonica) and evaluate their ability to protect against alcohol-induced liver oxidative stress, we employed a combination of ultra-performance liquid chromatography (UPLC) and high-resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS) to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze 22 phenolics and 2 terpenoid compounds in loquat peel and flesh extracts (extraction with 95% ethanol). Among these, six compounds were identified for the first time in loquat, revealing distinct distribution patterns based on variety and tissue. Various chemical models, such as DPPH, FRAP, ORAC, and ABTS, were used to assess free radical scavenging and metal ion reduction capabilities. The results indicate that peel extracts exhibited higher antioxidant capacity compared with flesh extracts. Using a normal mouse liver cell line, AML-12, we explored the protective effects of loquat extracts and individual compounds against ethanol-induced oxidative stress. The findings demonstrate the enhanced cell viability and the induction of antioxidant enzyme activity through the modulation of Nrf2 and Keap1 gene expression. In a C57/BL6 mouse model of alcohol-induced liver damage, loquat extract was found to alleviate liver injury induced by alcohol. The restoration of perturbed serum liver health indicators underscored the efficacy of loquat extract in reclaiming equilibrium. The culmination of these findings significantly bolsters the foundational knowledge necessary to explore the utilization of loquat fruit extract in the creation of health-focused products.