Periodic synchronisation of dengue epidemics in Thailand over the last 5 decades driven by temperature and immunity.

The spatial distribution of dengue and its vectors (spp. Aedes) may be the widest it has ever been, and projections suggest that climate change may allow the expansion to continue. However, less work has been done to understand how climate variability and change affects dengue in regions where the pathogen is already endemic. In these areas, the waxing and waning of immunity has a large impact on temporal dynamics of cases of dengue haemorrhagic fever. Here, we use 51 years of data across 72 provinces and characterise spatiotemporal patterns of dengue in Thailand, where dengue has caused almost 1.5 million cases over the last 30 years, and examine the roles played by temperature and dynamics of immunity in giving rise to those patterns. We find that timescales of multiannual oscillations in dengue vary in space and time and uncover an interesting spatial phenomenon: Thailand has experienced multiple, periodic synchronisation events. We show that although patterns in synchrony of dengue are similar to those observed in temperature, the relationship between the two is most consistent during synchronous periods, while during asynchronous periods, temperature plays a less prominent role. With simulations from temperature-driven models, we explore how dynamics of immunity interact with temperature to produce the observed patterns in synchrony. The simulations produced patterns in synchrony that were similar to observations, supporting an important role of immunity. We demonstrate that multiannual oscillations produced by immunity can lead to asynchronous dynamics and that synchrony in temperature can then synchronise these dengue dynamics. At higher mean temperatures, immune dynamics can be more predominant, and dengue dynamics more insensitive to multiannual fluctuations in temperature, suggesting that with rising mean temperatures, dengue dynamics may become increasingly asynchronous. These findings can help underpin predictions of disease patterns as global temperatures rise.

Pandemic fatigue impedes mitigation of COVID-19 in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong has implemented stringent public health and social measures (PHSMs) to curb each of the four COVID-19 epidemic waves since January 2020. The third wave between July and September 2020 was brought under control within 2 m, while the fourth wave starting from the end of October 2020 has taken longer to bring under control and lasted at least 5 mo. Here, we report the pandemic fatigue as one of the potential reasons for the reduced impact of PHSMs on transmission in the fourth wave. We contacted either 500 or 1,000 local residents through weekly random-digit dialing of landlines and mobile telephones from May 2020 to February 2021. We analyze the epidemiological impact of pandemic fatigue by using the large and detailed cross-sectional telephone surveys to quantify risk perception and self-reported protective behaviors and mathematical models to incorporate population protective behaviors. Our retrospective prediction suggests that an increase of 100 daily new reported cases would lead to 6.60% (95% CI: 4.03, 9.17) more people worrying about being infected, increase 3.77% (95% CI: 2.46, 5.09) more people to avoid social gatherings, and reduce the weekly mean reproduction number by 0.32 (95% CI: 0.20, 0.44). Accordingly, the fourth wave would have been 14% (95% CI%: -53%, 81%) smaller if not for pandemic fatigue. This indicates the important role of mitigating pandemic fatigue in maintaining population protective behaviors for controlling COVID-19.

Prior infections and effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in test-negative studies: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Prior infection with SARS-CoV-2 can provide protection against infection and severe COVID-19. We aimed to determine the impact of pre-existing immunity on the vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates. We systematically reviewed and meta-analysed 66 test-negative design (TND) studies that examined VE against infection or severe disease (hospitalization, ICU admission, or death) for primary vaccination series. Pooled VE among studies that included people with prior COVID-19 infection was lower against infection (pooled VE: 77%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 72%, 81%) and severe disease (pooled VE: 86%; 95% CI: 83%, 89%), compared with studies that excluded people with prior COVID-19 infection (pooled VE against infection: 87%; 95% CI: 85%, 89%; pooled VE against severe disease: 93%; 95% CI: 91%, 95%). There was a negative correlation between VE estimates against infection and severe disease, and the cumulative incidence of cases before the start of the study or incidence rates during the study period. We found clear empirical evidence that higher levels of pre-existing immunity were associated with lower VE estimates. Prior infections should be treated as both a confounder and effect modificatory when the policies target the whole population or stratified by infection history, respectively.

Bach2 in CD4+ T cells from SLE patients modulates B-cell differentiation and IgG production.

T and B cells participate in the development of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). BTB and CNC homology 2 (Bach2) is an irreplaceable regulator in the T and B lineages that helps to maintain immune homeostasis. However, the function of Bach2 in the pathogenesis of SLE has not been studied in depth. Flow cytometry and qRT-PCR were used to assess Bach2 levels, bisulfite sequencing PCR was used to measure the methylation level, and silencing by electroporation and stimulation with a cytokine concentration gradient were used to investigate the effect of Bach2 on T cells. Bach2 expression was elevated in the helper T-cell subsets (T follicular helper, Th1, Th2, Th17, and Treg cells) of SLE patients and negatively correlated with disease severity and autoantibody levels. CD4+ T cells from SLE patients had decreased methylation levels in the Bach2 promoter region. Silencing Bach2 in CD4+ T cells induced increases in the CD19+ B-cell count, plasmablasts, and secretion of IgG by prompting the secretion of cytokines. The activation signals CD3/CD28, IL-6, and IL-21 upregulated Bach2 expression in CD4+ T cells. The regulation of Bach2 by cytokines and T-cell activation signals in CD4+ T cells was shown to act on B cells and play a protective role against SLE.

Human-multimodal deep learning collaboration in 'precise' diagnosis of lupus erythematosus subtypes and similar skin diseases.

BACKGROUND: Lupus erythematosus (LE) is a spectrum of autoimmune diseases. Due to the complexity of cutaneous LE (CLE), clinical skin image-based artificial intelligence is still experiencing difficulties in distinguishing subtypes of LE. OBJECTIVES: We aim to develop a multimodal deep learning system (MMDLS) for human-AI collaboration in diagnosis of LE subtypes. METHODS: This is a multi-centre study based on 25 institutions across China to assist in diagnosis of LE subtypes, other eight similar skin diseases and healthy subjects. In total, 446 cases with 800 clinical skin images, 3786 multicolor-immunohistochemistry (multi-IHC) images and clinical data were collected, and EfficientNet-B3 and ResNet-18 were utilized in this study. RESULTS: In the multi-classification task, the overall performance of MMDLS on 13 skin conditions is much higher than single or dual modals (Sen = 0.8288, Spe = 0.9852, Pre = 0.8518, AUC = 0.9844). Further, the MMDLS-based diagnostic-support help improves the accuracy of dermatologists from 66.88% ± 6.94% to 81.25% ± 4.23% (p = 0.0004). CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight the benefit of human-MMDLS collaborated framework in telemedicine by assisting dermatologists and rheumatologists in the differential diagnosis of LE subtypes and similar skin diseases.

Dynamics of Anti-influenza Mucosal IgA Over a Season in a Cohort of Individuals Living or Working in a Long-term Care Facility.

BACKGROUND: Serological surveys are used to ascertain influenza infection and immunity, but evidence for the utility of mucosal immunoglobulin A (IgA) as a correlate of infection or protection is limited. METHODS: We performed influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance on 220 individuals living or working in a retirement community in Gainesville, Florida from January to May 2018, and took pre- and postseason nasal samples of 11 individuals with polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed influenza infection and 60 randomly selected controls. Mucosal IgA against 10 strains of influenza was measured from nasal samples. RESULTS: Overall, 28.2% and 11.3% of individuals experienced a 2-fold and 4-fold rise, respectively, in mucosal IgA to at least 1 influenza strain. Individuals with PCR-confirmed influenza A had significantly lower levels of preseason IgA to influenza A. Influenza-associated respiratory illness was associated with a higher rise in mucosal IgA to influenza strains of the same subtype, and H3N2-associated respiratory illness was associated with a higher rise in mucosal IgA to other influenza A strains. CONCLUSIONS: By comparing individuals with and without influenza illness, we demonstrated that mucosal IgA is a correlate of influenza infection. There was evidence for cross-reactivity in mucosal IgA across influenza A subtypes.

Residential Clustering of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Cases and Efficiency of Building-Wide Compulsory Testing Notices as a Transmission Control Measure in Hong Kong.

We described the frequency of residential case clusters and the efficiency of compulsory testing in identifying cases using buildings targeted in compulsory testing and locally infected coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases matched by residence in Hong Kong. Most of the buildings (4246 of 7688, 55.2%) with COVID-19 cases identified had only 1 reported case, and 13% of the daily reported cases were detected through compulsory testing. Compulsory testing notices could be essential in attempting to eliminate infections ("zero COVID") and have an impact early in an epidemic, but they appear to be relatively inefficient in response to sustained community transmission.

Detection of Influenza in Managed Quarantine in Australia and the Estimated Risk of Importation.

BACKGROUND: Influenza circulated at historically low levels during 2020/2021 due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic travel restrictions. In Australia, international arrivals were required to undergo a 14-day hotel quarantine to limit new introduction of SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: We usedtesting data for travelers arriving on repatriation flights to Darwin, Australia, from 3 January 2021 to 11 October 2021 to identify importations of influenza virus into Australia. We used this information to estimate the risk of a case exiting quarantine while still infectious. Influenza-positive samples were sequenced, and cases were followed up to identify transmission clusters. Data on the number of cases and total passengers were used to infer the risk of influenza cases exiting quarantine while infectious. RESULTS: Despite very low circulation of influenza globally, 42 cases were identified among 15 026 returned travelers, of which 30 were A(H3N2), 2 were A(H1N1)pdm09, and 10 were B/Victoria. Virus sequencing data identified potential in-flight transmission, as well as independent infections prior to travel. Under the quarantine strategy in place at the time, the probability that these cases could initiate influenza outbreaks in Australia neared 0. However, this probability rose as quarantine requirements relaxed. CONCLUSIONS: Detection of influenza virus infections in repatriated travelers provided a source of influenza viruses otherwise unavailable and enabled development of the A(H3N2) vaccine seed viruses included in the 2022 Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine. Failure to test quarantined returned travelers for influenza represents a missed opportunity for enhanced surveillance to better inform public health preparedness.

Comparison of the effect of levonorgestrel-intrauterine system with or without oral megestrol acetate on fertility-preserving treatment in patients with atypical endometrial hyperplasia: A prospective, open-label, randomized controlled phase II study.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effects of levonorgestrel-intrauterine system (LNG-IUS) with or without oral megestrol acetate (MA) versus MA alone on fertility-preserving treatment in patients with atypical endometrial hyperplasia (AEH). METHODS: This was a single-center phase II study with an open-label, randomized, controlled trial conducted between July 2017 and June 2020 at the Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai, China. A total of 180 patients (18-45 years) with primary AEH were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to the MA (N = 60), LNG-IUS (N = 60), or MA + LNG-IUS (N = 60) groups, in which the patients received MA (160 mg orally daily), LNG-IUS, or MA + LNG-IUS (MA 160 mg orally daily plus LNG-IUS), respectively. The primary endpoint was complete response (CR) rate at 16 weeks of treatment. The secondary endpoints were CR rate at 32 weeks of treatment, adverse events, and recurrence and pregnancy rates. All analyses were conducted in a modified intention to treat (ITT) population who underwent randomization and in whom treatment was initiated. RESULTS: The Kaplan-Meier estimate of 16-week CR rates (with 95% confidence interval) were 19.2% (9.0-29.4%) in the MA group, 35.0% (22.8-47.2%) in the LNG-IUS group, and 29.4% (17.2-41.6%) in the MA + LNG-IUS groups. Side effects such as weight gain, increased nocturnal urine, night sweat, insomnia and edema face seemed to occur less frequently in LNG-IUS group compared with MA group. No difference was found among groups regarding second endpoints. CONCLUSIONS: LNG-IUS or LNG-IUS plus MA did not show significant therapeutic benefit compared with MA alone. Further studies including sufficient sample-size are needed to validate these findings due to the underpowered design of this trial. FUNDING: This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No 2019YFC1005200 and 2019YFC1005204), Shanghai Medical Centre of Key Programs for Female Reproductive Diseases (Grant No. 2017ZZ010616), Shanghai sailing program (Grant No. 19YF1404200), and Shen Kang clinical project (SHDC22021219). Trial registrationClinicalTrials.govNCT03241888. https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov/ct2/show/NCT03241888?term=NCT03241888&draw=2&rank=1.

Effectiveness of CoronaVac and BNT162b2 Vaccines Against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Omicron BA.2 Infections in Hong Kong.

There is limited evidence on vaccine effectiveness against asymptomatic or mild Omicron infections. We estimated that recent third doses of messenger RNA or inactivated vaccines reduced the risk of self-reported infection by 52% (95% confidence interval, 17%-73%) among randomly sampled adults during the Omicron BA.2-dominated surge in Hong Kong.

Universal Community Nucleic Acid Testing for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hong Kong Reveals Insights Into Transmission Dynamics: A Cross-Sectional and Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: Testing of an entire community has been used as an approach to control coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In Hong Kong, a universal community testing program (UCTP) was implemented at the fadeout phase of a community epidemic in July to September 2020. We described the utility of the UCTP in finding unrecognized infections and analyzed data from the UCTP and other sources to characterize transmission dynamics. METHODS: We described the characteristics of people participating in the UCTP and compared the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases detected by the UCTP versus those detected by clinical diagnosis and public health surveillance (CDPHS). We developed a Bayesian model to estimate the age-specific incidence of infection and the proportion of cases detected by CDPHS. RESULTS: In total, 1.77 million people, 24% of the Hong Kong population, participated in the UCTP from 1 to 14 September 2020. The UCTP identified 32 new infections (1.8 per 100000 samples tested), consisting of 29% of all local cases reported during the two-week UCTP period. Compared with the CDPHS, the UCTP detected a higher proportion of sporadic cases (62% vs 27%, P<.01) and identified 6 (out of 18) additional clusters during that period. We estimated that 27% (95% credible interval: 22%, 34%) of all infections were detected by the CDPHS in the third wave. CONCLUSIONS: We reported empirical evidence of the utility of population-wide COVID-19 testing in detecting unrecognized infections and clusters. Around three quarters of infections have not been identified through existing surveillance approaches including contact tracing.

Effectiveness of International Travel Controls for Delaying Local Outbreaks of COVID-19.

During the coronavirus disease pandemic, international travel controls have been widely adopted. To determine the effectiveness of these measures, we analyzed data from 165 countries and found that early implementation of international travel controls led to a mean delay of 5 weeks in the first epidemic peak of cases.

Immunogenicity, efficacy, and safety of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose fractionation: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Dose fractionation of a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine could effectively accelerate global vaccine coverage, while supporting evidence of efficacy, immunogenicity, and safety are unavailable, especially with emerging variants. METHODS: We systematically reviewed clinical trials that reported dose-finding results and estimated the dose-response relationship of neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) of COVID-19 vaccines using a generalized additive model. We predicted the vaccine efficacy against both ancestral and variants, using previously reported correlates of protection and cross-reactivity. We also reviewed and compared seroconversion to nAbs, T cell responses, and safety profiles between fractional and standard dose groups. RESULTS: We found that dose fractionation of mRNA and protein subunit vaccines could induce SARS-CoV-2-specific nAbs and T cells that confer a reasonable level of protection (i.e., vaccine efficacy > 50%) against ancestral strains and variants up to Omicron. Safety profiles of fractional doses were non-inferior to the standard dose. CONCLUSIONS: Dose fractionation of mRNA and protein subunit vaccines may be safe and effective, which would also vary depending on the characteristics of emerging variants and updated vaccine formulations.

Life course exposures continually shape antibody profiles and risk of seroconversion to influenza.

Complex exposure histories and immune mediated interactions between influenza strains contribute to the life course of human immunity to influenza. Antibody profiles can be generated by characterizing immune responses to multiple antigenically variant strains, but how these profiles vary across individuals and determine future responses is unclear. We used hemagglutination inhibition titers from 21 H3N2 strains to construct 777 paired antibody profiles from people aged 2 to 86, and developed novel metrics to capture features of these profiles. Total antibody titer per potential influenza exposure increases in early life, then decreases in middle age. Increased titers to one or more strains were seen in 97.8% of participants during a roughly four-year interval, suggesting widespread influenza exposure. While titer changes were seen to all strains, recently circulating strains exhibited the greatest titer rise. Higher pre-existing, homologous titers at baseline reduced the risk of seroconversion to recent strains. After adjusting for homologous titer, we also found an increased frequency of seroconversion against recent strains among those with higher immunity to older previously exposed strains. Including immunity to previously exposures also improved the deviance explained by the models. Our results suggest that a comprehensive quantitative description of immunity encompassing past exposures could lead to improved correlates of risk of influenza infection.

Thyroid Hormone Receptor ß Knockdown Reduces Suppression of Progestins by Activating the mTOR Pathway in Endometrial Cancer Cells.

Progestin resistance is a major obstacle to conservative therapy in patients with endometrial cancer (EC) and endometrial atypical hyperplasia (EAH). However, the related inducing factor is yet unclear. In this study, thyroid hormone and its receptor α (TRα) and ß (TRß) of patients were assayed. THRB-silenced RL95-2 and KLE EC cells were cultured to investigate the response of progestins. Transcriptomics and Western blotting were performed to investigate the changes in signaling pathways. We found that THRB, rather than THRA, knockdown promoted the viability and motilities of RL95-2 cells but not KLE cells. The suppressive effect of progestins on cell growth and motility significantly decreased in THRB-silenced RL95-2 cells. Multiple proliferation-related signaling pathways were enriched, and the activities of mammalian targets of rapamycin (mTOR)/4e-binding protein 1 (4EBP1)/eukaryotic translation initiation factor 4G (eIF4G) rather than phosphorylated protein kinase B (Akt) were remarkably boosted. Progestin treatment enhanced the effects, and the augmentation was partially abated on supplementation with T3. In THRB-knockdown KLE cells, the progestins-activated partial signaling pathway expression (either mTOR or eIF4G), and supplementation with T3 did not induce noticeable alterations. The serum levels of triiodothyronine (T3) were significantly lower in patients with EC compared with healthy women. A strong expression of TRß was observed in most patients with EC and EAH sensitive to progestin treatment. In contrast, TRα positive expression was detected in less than half of the patients sensitive to progestin therapy. In conclusion, THRB knockdown enhanced the viability and motility of type I EC cells and attenuated the suppressive effects of progestins by activating the mTOR-4EBP1/eIF4G pathway. Lower expression of THRB is likely correlated with progesterone resistance.

Changing Disparities in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Burden in the Ethnically Homogeneous Population of Hong Kong Through Pandemic Waves: An Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Disparities were marked in previous pandemics, usually with higher attack rates reported for those in lower socioeconomic positions and for ethnic minorities. METHODS: We examined characteristics of laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Hong Kong, assessed associations between incidence and population-level characteristics at the level of small geographic areas, and evaluated relations between socioeconomics and work-from-home (WFH) arrangements. RESULTS: The largest source of COVID-19 importations switched from students studying overseas in the second wave to foreign domestic helpers in the third. The local cases were mostly individuals not in formal employment (retirees and homemakers) and production workers who were unable to WFH. For every 10% increase in the proportion of population employed as executives or professionals in a given geographic region, there was an 84% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1-97%) reduction in the incidence of COVID-19 during the third wave. In contrast, in the first 2 waves, the same was associated with 3.69 times (95% CI, 1.02-13.33) higher incidence. Executives and professionals were more likely to implement WFH and experienced frequent changes in WFH practice compared with production workers. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent findings on the reversed socioeconomic patterning of COVID-19 burden between infection waves in Hong Kong in both individual- and population-level analyses indicated that risks of infections may be related to occupations involving high exposure frequency and WFH flexibility. Contextual determinants should be taken into account in policy planning aiming at mitigating such disparities.

Risk for International Importations of Variant SARS-CoV-2 Originating in the United Kingdom.

A fast-spreading severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variant identified in the United Kingdom in December 2020 has raised international alarm. We analyzed data from 15 countries and estimated that the chance that this variant was imported into these countries by travelers from the United Kingdom by December 7 is >50%.

The Usefulness of the Test-Positive Proportion of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 as a Surveillance Tool.

Comparison of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case numbers over time and between locations is complicated by limits to virological testing to confirm severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection. The proportion of tested individuals who have tested positive (test-positive proportion, TPP) can potentially be used to inform trends in incidence. We propose a model for testing in a population experiencing an epidemic of COVID-19 and derive an expression for TPP in terms of well-defined parameters related to testing and presence of other pathogens causing COVID-19-like symptoms. In the absence of dramatic shifts of testing practices in time or between locations, the TPP is positively correlated with the incidence of infection. We show that the proportion of tested individuals who present COVID-19-like symptoms encodes information similar to the TPP but has different relationships with the testing parameters, and can thus provide additional information regarding dynamic changes in TPP and incidence. Finally, we compare data on confirmed cases and TPP from US states up to October 2020. We conjecture why states might have higher or lower TPP than average. Collection of symptom status and age/risk category of tested individuals can increase the utility of TPP in assessing the state of the pandemic in different locations and times.

An open source tool to infer epidemiological and immunological dynamics from serological data: serosolver.

We present a flexible, open source R package designed to obtain biological and epidemiological insights from serological datasets. Characterising past exposures for multi-strain pathogens poses a specific statistical challenge: observed antibody responses measured in serological assays depend on multiple unobserved prior infections that produce cross-reactive antibody responses. We provide a general modelling framework to jointly infer infection histories and describe immune responses generated by these infections using antibody titres against current and historical strains. We do this by linking latent infection dynamics with a mechanistic model of antibody kinetics that generates expected antibody titres over time. Our aim is to provide a flexible package to identify infection histories that can be applied to a range of pathogens. We present two case studies to illustrate how our model can infer key immunological parameters, such as antibody titre boosting, waning and cross-reaction, as well as latent epidemiological processes such as attack rates and age-stratified infection risk.

Conservative management of grade 2 stage IA endometrial carcinoma and literature review.

PURPOSE: To explore the clinical outcomes of megestrol acetate alone or plus metformin in young women with grade 2 stage IA endometrial carcinoma who ask for preserved fertility. METHODS: Patients with stage IA grade 2 endometrial carcinoma who asked for fertility-sparing treatment in the Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital of Fudan University between 2015 and 2017 were enrolled and retrospectively reviewed. RESULTS: Four patients were included and treated with oral megestrol acetate (160 mg per day), while metformin (500 mg, thrice daily) was added for patients with metabolic syndrome. Regular hysteroscopic examination was performed every 3 months during the conservative treatment. Overall, 75% (3/4) of the patients had a complete response, one relapsed and achieved a complete response after changing the therapy plan, and one patient had an indication of myometrial invasion during fertility-sparing treatment and chose to remove uterus. CONCLUSIONS: Fertility-sparing treatment for stage IA grade 2 endometrial carcinoma patients is worth exploration. Megestrol acetate with or without metformin combined with hysteroscopic lesion ablation may be an effective therapy.