A big-data driven approach to analyzing and modeling human mobility trend under non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19 pandemic.

During the unprecedented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) challenge, non-pharmaceutical interventions became a widely adopted strategy to limit physical movements and interactions to mitigate virus transmissions. For situational awareness and decision-support, quickly available yet accurate big-data analytics about human mobility and social distancing is invaluable to agencies and decision-makers. This paper presents a big-data-driven analytical framework that ingests terabytes of data on a daily basis and quantitatively assesses the human mobility trend during COVID-19. Using mobile device location data of over 150 million monthly active samples in the United States (U.S.), the study successfully measures human mobility with three main metrics at the county level: daily average number of trips per person; daily average person-miles traveled; and daily percentage of residents staying home. A set of generalized additive mixed models is employed to disentangle the policy effect on human mobility from other confounding effects including virus effect, socio-demographic effect, weather effect, industry effect, and spatiotemporal autocorrelation. Results reveal the policy plays a limited, time-decreasing, and region-specific effect on human movement. The stay-at-home orders only contribute to a 3.5%-7.9% decrease in human mobility, while the reopening guidelines lead to a 1.6%-5.2% mobility increase. Results also indicate a reasonable spatial heterogeneity among the U.S. counties, wherein the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, income levels, industry structure, age and racial distribution play important roles. The data informatics generated by the framework are made available to the public for a timely understanding of mobility trends and policy effects, as well as for time-sensitive decision support to further contain the spread of the virus.

Invasion dynamics of competing species with stage-structure.

The spread of an invasive species often results in a decline and subsequent disappearance of native competitors. Several models, primarily based on spatially explicit Lotka-Volterra competition dynamics, have been developed to understand this phenomenon. In general, the goal of these models is to relate fundamental life history traits, for example dispersal ability and competition strength, to the rate of spread of the invasive species, which is also the rate at which the invasive species displaces its native competitor. Stage-structure is often an important determinant of population dynamics, but it has received little attention within the context of Lotka-Volterra invasion models. For many species, behaviors like dispersal and competition depend on life-stage. To describe the processes of invasion in these species, it is important to understand how behaviors that vary as a function of life-stage can impact spread rate. In this paper, we develop a spatially explicit, stage-structured Lotka-Volterra competition model. By comparing spread speed predictions from this model to spread speed predictions from an analogous single-stage model, we are able to determine when stage-structure is important and how stage-dependent behavior can alter the characteristics of an invasion.

Pedestrian- and bicyclist-involved crashes: Associations with spatial factors, pedestrian infrastructure, and equity impacts.

INTRODUCTION: We analyze and compare the factors that influence the fatality of pedestrian and bicyclist involved crashes in New Jersey using available police-reported crash data between 2016 and 2020. Under three percent of crashes involve non-motorists statewide, but these account for about one third of all traffic fatalities in the state. METHODS: Our analysis is broken down into five parts: we (1) analyze the relationship between minority and low-income communities and non-motorist involved crashes; (2) identify spatial differences between non-motorist involved crashes and non-motorist involved fatal crashes; (3) compare the factors affecting fatal pedestrian crashes in New Jersey and in four counties in southern New Jersey for which we have data on pedestrian infrastructure; (4) compare the factors affecting fatal pedestrian crashes and fatal cyclist crashes in New Jersey; and, (5) discuss priority areas for improving safety. RESULTS: Crashes occur disproportionately more often in low-income communities. Moreover, we find that crashes are less likely to be geocoded if they take place in low-income and minority areas, a concerning finding considering that geocoded crashes are of paramount importance in identifying specific corridors for improvement. Light conditions, non-motorist age, posted speed, and vehicle type are significant factors influencing the fatality of non-motorist involved crashes. The proximity to a crosswalk or sidewalk is associated with decreased risk of a fatal crash for pedestrians. Cyclist crashes in low-income neighborhoods were more likely to be fatal - a finding that we attribute to lower access to bicycle facilities in low-income areas. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude with countermeasures, including a call for better data collection.

COVID-19 and income profile: How communities in the United States responded to mobility restrictions in the pandemic's early stages.

Mobility interventions in communities play a critical role in containing a pandemic at an early stage. The real-world practice of social distancing can enlighten policymakers and help them implement more efficient and effective control measures. A lack of such research using real-world observations initiates this article. We analyzed the social distancing performance of 66,149 census tracts from 3,142 counties in the United States with a specific focus on income profile. Six daily mobility metrics, including a social distancing index, stay-at-home percentage, miles traveled per person, trip rate, work trip rate, and non-work trip rate, were produced for each census tract using the location data from over 100 million anonymous devices on a monthly basis. Each mobility metric was further tabulated by three perspectives of social distancing performance: "best performance," "effort," and "consistency." We found that for all 18 indicators, high-income communities demonstrated better social distancing performance. Such disparities between communities of different income levels are presented in detail in this article. The comparisons across scenarios also raise other concerns for low-income communities, such as employment status, working conditions, and accessibility to basic needs. This article lays out a series of facts extracted from real-world data and offers compelling perspectives for future discussions.

Examining spatiotemporal evolution of racial/ethnic disparities in human mobility and COVID-19 health outcomes: Evidence from the contiguous United States.

Social distancing has become a key countermeasure to contain the dissemination of COVID-19. This study examined county-level racial/ethnic disparities in human mobility and COVID-19 health outcomes during the year 2020 by leveraging geo-tracking data across the contiguous US. Sets of generalized additive models were fitted under cross-sectional and time-varying settings, with percentage of mobility change, percentage of staying home, COVID-19 infection rate, and case-fatality ratio as dependent variables, respectively. After adjusting for spatial effects, built environment, socioeconomics, demographics, and partisanship, we found counties with higher Asian populations decreased most in travel, counties with higher White and Asian populations experienced the least infection rate, and counties with higher African American populations presented the highest case-fatality ratio. Control variables, particularly partisanship and education attainment, significantly influenced modeling results. Time-varying analyses further suggested racial differences in human mobility varied dramatically at the beginning but remained stable during the pandemic, while racial differences in COVID-19 outcomes broadly decreased over time. All conclusions hold robust with different aggregation units or model specifications. Altogether, our analyses shine a spotlight on the entrenched racial segregation in the US as well as how it may influence the mobility patterns, urban forms, and health disparities during the COVID-19.

Mobile device location data reveal human mobility response to state-level stay-at-home orders during the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA.

One approach to delaying the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is to reduce human travel by imposing travel restriction policies. Understanding the actual human mobility response to such policies remains a challenge owing to the lack of an observed and large-scale dataset describing human mobility during the pandemic. This study uses an integrated dataset, consisting of anonymized and privacy-protected location data from over 150 million monthly active samples in the USA, COVID-19 case data and census population information, to uncover mobility changes during COVID-19 and under the stay-at-home state orders in the USA. The study successfully quantifies human mobility responses with three important metrics: daily average number of trips per person; daily average person-miles travelled; and daily percentage of residents staying at home. The data analytics reveal a spontaneous mobility reduction that occurred regardless of government actions and a 'floor' phenomenon, where human mobility reached a lower bound and stopped decreasing soon after each state announced the stay-at-home order. A set of longitudinal models is then developed and confirms that the states' stay-at-home policies have only led to about a 5% reduction in average daily human mobility. Lessons learned from the data analytics and longitudinal models offer valuable insights for government actions in preparation for another COVID-19 surge or another virus outbreak in the future.