Time series prediction for the epidemic trends of COVID-19 using the improved LSTM deep learning method: Case studies in Russia, Peru and Iran.

The COVID-19 outbreak in late December 2019 is still spreading rapidly in many countries and regions around the world. It is thus urgent to predict the development and spread of the epidemic. In this paper, we have developed a forecasting model of COVID-19 by using a deep learning method with rolling update mechanism based on the epidemical data provided by Johns Hopkins University. First, as traditional epidemical models use the accumulative confirmed cases for training, it can only predict a rising trend of the epidemic and cannot predict when the epidemic will decline or end, an improved model is built based on long short-term memory (LSTM) with daily confirmed cases training set. Second, considering the existing forecasting model based on LSTM can only predict the epidemic trend within the next 30 days accurately, the rolling update mechanism is embedded with LSTM for long-term projections. Third, by introducing Diffusion Index (DI), the effectiveness of preventive measures like social isolation and lockdown on the spread of COVID-19 is analyzed in our novel research. The trends of the epidemic in 150 days ahead are modeled for Russia, Peru and Iran, three countries on different continents. Under our estimation, the current epidemic in Peru is predicted to continue until November 2020. The number of positive cases per day in Iran is expected to fall below 1000 by mid-November, with a gradual downward trend expected after several smaller peaks from July to September, while there will still be more than 2000 increase by early December in Russia. Moreover, our study highlights the importance of preventive measures which have been taken by the government, which shows that the strict controlment can significantly reduce the spread of COVID-19.

Prediction of epidemic trends in COVID-19 with logistic model and machine learning technics.

COVID-19 has now had a huge impact in the world, and more than 8 million people in more than 100 countries are infected. To contain its spread, a number of countries published control measures. However, it's not known when the epidemic will end in global and various countries. Predicting the trend of COVID-19 is an extremely important challenge. We integrate the most updated COVID-19 epidemiological data before June 16, 2020 into the Logistic model to fit the cap of epidemic trend, and then feed the cap value into FbProphet model, a machine learning based time series prediction model to derive the epidemic curve and predict the trend of the epidemic. Three significant points are summarized from our modeling results for global, Brazil, Russia, India, Peru and Indonesia. Under mathematical estimation, the global outbreak will peak in late October, with an estimated 14.12 million people infected cumulatively.

Analysis of spatiotemporal characteristics of big data on social media sentiment with COVID-19 epidemic topics.

COVID-19 blocked Wuhan in China, which was sealed off on Chinese New Year's Eve. During this period, the research on the relevant topics of COVID-19 and emotional expressions published on social media can provide decision support for the management and control of large-scale public health events. The research assisted the analysis of microblog text topics with the help of the LDA model, and obtained 8 topics ("origin", "host", "organization", "quarantine measures", "role models", "education", "economic", "rumor") and 28 interactive topics. Obtain data through crawler tools, with the help of big data technology, social media topics and emotional change characteristics are analyzed from spatiotemporal perspectives. The results show that: (1) "Double peaks" feature appears in the epidemic topic search curve. Weibo on the topic of the epidemic gradually reduced after January 24. However, the proportion of epidemic topic searches has gradually increased, and a "double peaks" phenomenon appeared within a week; (2) The topic changes with time and the fluctuation of the topic discussion rate gradually weakens. The number of texts on different topics and interactive topics changes with time. At the same time, the discussion rate of epidemic topics gradually weakens; (3) The political and economic center is an area where social media is highly concerned. The areas formed by Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Sichuan and Hubei have published more microblog texts. The spatial division of the number of Weibo social media texts has a high correlation with the economic zone division; (4) The existence of the topic of "rumor" will enable people to have more communication and discussion. The interactive topics of "rumors" always have higher topic popularity and low emotion text expressions. Through the analysis of media information, it helps relevant decision makers to grasp social media topics from spatiotemporal characteristics, so that relevant departments can accurately grasp the public's subjective ideas and emotional expressions, and provide decision support for macro-control response strategies and measures and risk communication.