A Machine Learning Model Ensemble for Mixed Power Load Forecasting across Multiple Time Horizons.

The increasing penetration of renewable energy sources tends to redirect the power systems community's interest from the traditional power grid model towards the smart grid framework. During this transition, load forecasting for various time horizons constitutes an essential electric utility task in network planning, operation, and management. This paper presents a novel mixed power-load forecasting scheme for multiple prediction horizons ranging from 15 min to 24 h ahead. The proposed approach makes use of a pool of models trained by several machine-learning methods with different characteristics, namely neural networks, linear regression, support vector regression, random forests, and sparse regression. The final prediction values are calculated using an online decision mechanism based on weighting the individual models according to their past performance. The proposed scheme is evaluated on real electrical load data sensed from a high voltage/medium voltage substation and is shown to be highly effective, as it results in R2 coefficient values ranging from 0.99 to 0.79 for prediction horizons ranging from 15 min to 24 h ahead, respectively. The method is compared to several state-of-the-art machine-learning approaches, as well as a different ensemble method, producing highly competitive results in terms of prediction accuracy.

An Inverse Neural Controller Based on the Applicability Domain of RBF Network Models.

This paper presents a novel methodology of generic nature for controlling nonlinear systems, using inverse radial basis function neural network models, which may combine diverse data originating from various sources. The algorithm starts by applying the particle swarm optimization-based non-symmetric variant of the fuzzy means (PSO-NSFM) algorithm so that an approximation of the inverse system dynamics is obtained. PSO-NSFM offers models of high accuracy combined with small network structures. Next, the applicability domain concept is suitably tailored and embedded into the proposed control structure in order to ensure that extrapolation is avoided in the controller predictions. Finally, an error correction term, estimating the error produced by the unmodeled dynamics and/or unmeasured external disturbances, is included to the control scheme to increase robustness. The resulting controller guarantees bounded input-bounded state (BIBS) stability for the closed loop system when the open loop system is BIBS stable. The proposed methodology is evaluated on two different control problems, namely, the control of an experimental armature-controlled direct current (DC) motor and the stabilization of a highly nonlinear simulated inverted pendulum. For each one of these problems, appropriate case studies are tested, in which a conventional neural controller employing inverse models and a PID controller are also applied. The results reveal the ability of the proposed control scheme to handle and manipulate diverse data through a data fusion approach and illustrate the superiority of the method in terms of faster and less oscillatory responses.