Human disturbance compresses the spatiotemporal niche.

Human disturbance may fundamentally alter the way that species interact, a prospect that remains poorly understood. We investigated whether anthropogenic landscape modification increases or decreases co-occurrence-a prerequisite for species interactions-within wildlife communities. Using 4 y of data from >2,000 camera traps across a human disturbance gradient in Wisconsin, USA, we considered 74 species pairs (classifying pairs as low, medium, or high antagonism to account for different interaction types) and used the time between successive detections of pairs as a measure of their co-occurrence probability and to define co-occurrence networks. Pairs averaged 6.1 [95% CI: 5.3, 6.8] d between detections in low-disturbance landscapes (e.g., national forests) but 4.1 [3.5, 4.7] d between detections in high-disturbance landscapes, such as those dominated by urbanization or intensive agriculture. Co-occurrence networks showed higher connectance (i.e., a larger proportion of the possible co-occurrences) and greater proportions of low-antagonism pairs in disturbed landscapes. Human-mediated increases in species abundance (possibly via resource subsidies) appeared more important than behavioral mechanisms (e.g., changes in daily activity timing) in driving these patterns of compressed co-occurrence in disturbed landscapes. The spatiotemporal compression of species co-occurrences in disturbed landscapes likely strengthens interactions like competition, predation, and infection unless species can avoid each other at fine spatiotemporal scales. Regardless, human-mediated increases in co-occurrence with-and hence increased exposure to-predators or competitors might elevate stress levels in individual animals, with possible cascading effects across populations, communities, and ecosystems.

Mapping multiscale breeding bird species distributions across the United States and evaluating their conservation applications.

Species distribution models are vital to management decisions that require understanding habitat use patterns, particularly for species of conservation concern. However, the production of distribution maps for individual species is often hampered by data scarcity, and existing species maps are rarely spatially validated due to limited occurrence data. Furthermore, community-level maps based on stacked species distribution models lack important community assemblage information (e.g., competitive exclusion) relevant to conservation. Thus, multispecies, guild, or community models are often used in conservation practice instead. To address these limitations, we aimed to generate fine-scale, spatially continuous, nationwide maps for species represented in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) between 1992 and 2019. We developed ensemble models for each species at three spatial resolutions-0.5, 2.5, and 5 km-across the conterminous United States. We also compared species richness patterns from stacked single-species models with those of 19 functional guilds developed using the same data to assess the similarity between predictions. We successfully modeled 192 bird species at 5-km resolution, 160 species at 2.5-km resolution, and 80 species at 0.5-km resolution. However, the species we could model represent only 28%-56% of species found in the conterminous US BBSs across resolutions owing to data limitations. We found that stacked maps and guild maps generally had high correlations across resolutions (median = 84%), but spatial agreement varied regionally by resolution and was most pronounced between the East and West at the 5-km resolution. The spatial differences between our stacked maps and guild maps illustrate the importance of spatial validation in conservation planning. Overall, our species maps are useful for single-species conservation and can support fine-scale decision-making across the United States and support community-level conservation when used in tandem with guild maps. However, there remain data scarcity issues for many species of conservation concern when using the BBS for single-species models.

Sensitivity of North American grassland birds to weather and climate variability.

Grassland birds in North America have declined sharply over the last 60 years, driven by the widespread loss and degradation of grassland habitats. Climate change is occurring more rapidly in grasslands relative to some other ecosystems, and exposure to extreme and novel climate conditions may affect grassland bird ecology and demographics. To determine the potential effects of weather and climate variability on grassland birds, we conducted a systematic review of relationships between temperature and precipitation and demographic responses in grassland bird species of North America. Based on 124 independent studies, we used a vote-counting approach to quantify the frequency and direction of significant effects of weather and climate variability on grassland birds. Grassland birds tended to experience positive and negative effects of higher temperatures and altered precipitation. Moderate, sustained increases in mean temperature and precipitation benefitted some species, but extreme heat, drought, and heavy rainfall often reduced abundance and nest success. These patterns varied among climate regions, temporal scales of temperature and precipitation (<1 or ≥1 month), and taxa. The sensitivity of grassland bird populations to extreme weather and altered climate variability will likely be mediated by regional climates, interaction with other stressors, life-history strategies of various species, and species' tolerances for novel climate conditions.

Sensibilidad de las aves norteamericanas de pastizales ante la variabilidad climática y el clima Resumen Las aves de los pastizales norteamericanos han declinado gravemente durante los últimos 60 años, principalmente debido a la pérdida generalizada y la degradación del hábitat. El cambio climático ocurre cada vez más rápido en los pastizales en relación con otros ecosistemas, y la exposición a las condiciones climáticas nuevas y extremas puede afectar la demografía y la ecología aviar en los pastizales. Realizamos un análisis sistemático de las relaciones entre la temperatura y la precipitación y las respuestas demográficas de las especies de aves de pastizales en Norteamérica para determinar los efectos potenciales del clima y la variabilidad climática sobre estas aves. Usamos un método de conteo de votos basado en 124 estudios independientes para cuantificar la frecuencia y dirección de los efectos significativos del clima y la variabilidad climática sobre las aves de pastizal. Las aves de pastizal tendieron a experimentar los efectos positivos y negativos de las altas temperaturas y la precipitación alterada. El incremento moderado y sostenido en las medias de temperatura y precipitación beneficiaron a algunas especies, pero el calor extremo, la sequía y las lluvias torrenciales redujeron con frecuencia la abundancia y el éxito de anidación. Estos patrones variaron entre las regiones climáticas, las escalas temporales de temperatura y precipitación (< 1 mes o ≥ 1 mes) y los taxones. La sensibilidad de las poblaciones de aves de pastizal ante el clima extremo y la variabilidad climática alterada probablemente será mediada por los climas regionales, la interacción con otros estresantes, las estrategias de vida de varias especies y la tolerancia de las especies a las condiciones climáticas nuevas.

Spatial and seasonal variation in thermal sensitivity within North American bird species.

Responses of wildlife to climate change are typically quantified at the species level, but physiological evidence suggests significant intraspecific variation in thermal sensitivity given adaptation to local environments and plasticity required to adjust to seasonal environments. Spatial and temporal variation in thermal responses may carry important implications for climate change vulnerability; for instance, sensitivity to extreme weather may increase in specific regions or seasons. Here, we leverage high-resolution observational data from eBird to understand regional and seasonal variation in thermal sensitivity for 21 bird species. Across their ranges, most birds demonstrated regional and seasonal variation in both thermal peak and range, or the temperature and range of temperatures when observations peaked. Some birds demonstrated constant thermal peaks or ranges across their geographical distributions, while others varied according to local and current environmental conditions. Across species, birds typically demonstrated either geographical or seasonal adaptation to climate. Local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity are likely important but neglected aspects of organismal responses to climate change.

Poleward shifts and altered periodicity in boreal bird irruptions over six decades.

Range boundaries are long-term biogeographic features of species distributions and abundance. However, many species demonstrate dynamic range boundaries, reflecting strong seasonal and annual variability in migratory behaviour. As a form of facultative migration, irruptions involve the movement of many individuals outside of their resident range in response to climate variability, resource availability, and demographic processes. Many species have experienced range shifts and altered phenology in response to modern climate change, but spatiotemporal changes in irruption dynamics are less well known. We quantified changes in the geography and periodicity of boreal bird irruptions across eastern North America from 1960 to 2021. Using data from Audubon's Christmas Bird Count for nine finch species, including several exhibiting recent population declines, we evaluated latitudinal trends in southern range and irruption boundaries and characterized irruption periodicity using spectral wavelet analysis. Six boreal birds exhibited significant northward shifts in their southern range boundaries and three species displayed shifts in their southern irruption boundaries. Irruption periodicity across multiple species was consistent across the 1960s and 1970s, culminating in frequent and synchronized irruptions of multiple species (superflights) during earlier decades. Coherence between species dampened beginning in the early 1980s as superflight periodicity became increasingly unstructured, finally reforming in recent decades, after 2000. Boreal birds are considered important sentinels of the boreal forests, and northward shifts and altered periodicity of irruptions may indicate broad-scale changes in climate- and resource-associated drivers operating across the boreal forests.

Phenotypic variation in the molt characteristics of a seasonal coat color-changing species reveals limited resilience to climate change.

The snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) possesses a broad suite of adaptations to winter, including a seasonal coat color molt. Recently, climate change has been implicated in the range contraction of snowshoe hares along the southern range boundary. With shortening snow season duration, snowshoe hares are experiencing increased camouflage mismatch with their environment reducing survival. Phenological variation of hare molt at regional scales could facilitate local adaptation in the face of climate change, but the level of variation, especially along the southern range boundary, is unknown. Using a network of trail cameras and historical museum specimens, we (1) developed contemporary and historical molt phenology curves in the Upper Great Lakes region, USA, (2) calculated molt rate and variability in and among populations, and (3) quantified the relationship of molt characteristics to environmental conditions for snowshoe hares across North America. We found that snowshoe hares across the region exhibited similar fall and spring molt phenologies, rates and variation. Yet, an insular island population of hares on Isle Royale National Park, MI, completed their molt a week earlier in the fall and initiated molt almost 2 weeks later in the spring as well as exhibited slower rates of molting in the fall season compared to the mainland. Over the last 100 years, snowshoe hares across the region have not shifted in fall molt timing; though contemporary spring molt appears to have advanced by 17 days (~ 4 days per decade) compared to historical molt phenology. Our research indicates that some variation in molt phenology exists for snowshoe hares in the Upper Great Lakes region, but whether this variation is enough to offset the consequences of climate change remains to be seen.

Older forests function as energetic and demographic refugia for a climate-sensitive species.

More frequent and extreme heat waves threaten climate-sensitive species. Structurally complex, older forests can buffer these effects by creating cool microclimates, although the mechanisms by which forest refugia mitigate physiological responses to heat exposure and subsequent population-level consequences remain relatively unexplored. We leveraged fine-scale movement data, doubly labeled water, and two decades of demographic data for the California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) to (1) assess the role of older forest characteristics as potential energetic buffers for individuals and (2) examine the subsequent value of older forests as refugia for a core population in the Sierra Nevada and a periphery population in the San Bernardino Mountains. Individuals spent less energy moving during warmer sampling periods and the presence of tall canopies facilitated energetic conservation during daytime roosting activities. In the core population, where tall-canopied forest was prevalent, temperature anomalies did not affect territory occupancy dynamics as warmer sites were both less likely to go extinct and less likely to become colonized, suggesting a trade-off between foraging opportunities and temperature exposure. In the peripheral population, sites were more likely to become unoccupied following warm summers, presumably because of less prevalent older forest conditions. While individuals avoided elevated energetic expenditure associated with temperature exposure, behavioral strategies to conserve energy may have diverted time and energy from reproduction or territory defense. Conserving older forests, which are threatened due to fire and drought, may benefit individuals from energetic consequences of exposure to stressful thermal conditions.

Snapshot Wisconsin: networking community scientists and remote sensing to improve ecological monitoring and management.

Biological data collection is entering a new era. Community science, satellite remote sensing (SRS), and local forms of remote sensing (e.g., camera traps and acoustic recordings) have enabled biological data to be collected at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales and resolution. There is growing interest in developing observation networks to collect and synthesize data to improve broad-scale ecological monitoring, but no examples of such networks have emerged to inform decision-making by agencies. Here, we present the implementation of one such jurisdictional observation network (JON), Snapshot Wisconsin, which links synoptic environmental data derived from SRS to biodiversity observations collected continuously from a trail camera network to support management decision-making. We use several examples to illustrate that Snapshot Wisconsin improves the spatial, temporal, and biological resolution and extent of information available to support management, filling gaps associated with traditional monitoring and enabling consideration of new management strategies. JONs like Snapshot Wisconsin further strengthen monitoring inference by contributing novel lines of evidence useful for corroboration or integration. SRS provides environmental context that facilitates inference, prediction, and forecasting, and ultimately helps managers formulate, test, and refine conceptual models for the monitored systems. Although these approaches pose challenges, Snapshot Wisconsin demonstrates that expansive observation networks can be tractably managed by agencies to support decision making, providing a powerful new tool for agencies to better achieve their missions and reshape the nature of environmental decision-making.

Habitat loss and thermal tolerances influence the sensitivity of resident bird populations to winter weather at regional scales.

Climate change and habitat loss pose the greatest contemporary threats to biodiversity, but their impacts on populations largely vary across species. These differential responses could be caused by complex interactions between landscape and climate change and species-specific sensitivities. Understanding the factors that determine which species are most vulnerable to the synergistic effects of climate change and habitat loss is a high conservation priority. Here, we ask (a) whether and to what extent land cover moderates the impacts of winter weather on population dynamics of wintering birds, and (b) what role species' physiology might play in modifying their responses to changing weather conditions. To address these questions, we used thousands of observations collected by citizen scientists participating in Project FeederWatch to build dynamic occupancy models for 14 species of wintering birds. Populations of wintering birds were more dynamic, having higher rates of local extinction and colonization, in more forested landscapes during extreme cold-presumably enabling them to better track resources. However, urban areas appeared to provide refuge for some species, as demonstrated by increased local colonization during the harshest winter weather. Lastly, we found that species-specific differences in thermal tolerances strongly influenced occupancy dynamics such that species that are less cold-tolerant were more likely to go locally extinct at colder sites and during colder periods throughout winter. Together, our results suggest that species that are less cold-tolerant and populations occupying less forested landscapes are most vulnerable to extreme winter weather.

Abundance estimation of unmarked animals based on camera-trap data.

The rapid improvement of camera traps in recent decades has revolutionized biodiversity monitoring. Despite clear applications in conservation science, camera traps have seldom been used to model the abundance of unmarked animal populations. We sought to summarize the challenges facing abundance estimation of unmarked animals, compile an overview of existing analytical frameworks, and provide guidance for practitioners seeking a suitable method. When a camera records multiple detections of an unmarked animal, one cannot determine whether the images represent multiple mobile individuals or a single individual repeatedly entering the camera viewshed. Furthermore, animal movement obfuscates a clear definition of the sampling area and, as a result, the area to which an abundance estimate corresponds. Recognizing these challenges, we identified 6 analytical approaches and reviewed 927 camera-trap studies published from 2014 to 2019 to assess the use and prevalence of each method. Only about 5% of the studies used any of the abundance-estimation methods we identified. Most of these studies estimated local abundance or covariate relationships rather than predicting abundance or density over broader areas. Next, for each analytical approach, we compiled the data requirements, assumptions, advantages, and disadvantages to help practitioners navigate the landscape of abundance estimation methods. When seeking an appropriate method, practitioners should evaluate the life history of the focal taxa, carefully define the area of the sampling frame, and consider what types of data collection are possible. The challenge of estimating abundance of unmarked animal populations persists; although multiple methods exist, no one method is optimal for camera-trap data under all circumstances. As analytical frameworks continue to evolve and abundance estimation of unmarked animals becomes increasingly common, camera traps will become even more important for informing conservation decision-making.

Estimación de la Abundancia de Animales No Marcados con Base en Datos de Cámaras Trampa Resumen La rápida mejoría de las cámaras trampa en las décadas recientes ha revolucionado el monitoreo de la biodiversidad. A pesar de su clara aplicación en las ciencias de la conservación, las cámaras trampa han sido utilizadas pocas veces para modelar la abundancia de las poblaciones de animales no marcados. Buscamos resumir los retos que enfrenta la estimación de la abundancia de animales no marcados, compilar una perspectiva general de los marcos analíticos de trabajo existentes y proporcionar una guía para aquellos practicantes que buscan un método adecuado. Cuando una cámara registra múltiples detecciones de animales no marcados, no se puede determinar si las imágenes representan a diferentes individuos en movimiento o a un solo individuo que entra repetidamente a la zona de visión de la cámara. Sumado a esto, el movimiento animal ofusca una definición clara del área de muestreo y, como resultado, del área a la cual corresponde un estimado de abundancia. Después de reconocer estos retos, identificamos seis estrategias analíticas y revisamos 927 estudios con cámaras trampa publicados entre 2014 y 2019 para evaluar el uso y la prevalencia de cada método. Solamente en el 5% de los estudios se usó cualquiera de los métodos de estimación de abundancia que identificamos. La mayoría de estos estudios estimaron la abundancia local o las relaciones de covarianza en lugar de predecir la abundancia o la densidad a lo largo de áreas más amplias. Después, para cada estrategia analítica, recopilamos los requerimientos de datos, suposiciones, ventajas y desventajas para ayudar a los practicantes a navegar el paisaje de los métodos de estimación de abundancia. Cuando los practicantes busquen un método apropiado deberán evaluar la historia de vida del taxón focal, definir cuidadosamente el área del marco de muestreo y considerar cuáles tipos de recolección de datos son posibles. El reto de estimar la abundancia de poblaciones de animales no marcados persiste; aunque existan muchos métodos, no hay método único óptimo para los datos de las cámaras trampa que cumpla con todas las circunstancias. Mientras los marcos analíticos de trabajo sigan evolucionando y la estimación de la abundancia de animales no marcados sea cada vez más común, las cámaras trampa serán todavía más importantes para informar la toma de decisiones de conservación.

Personality differences in the selection of dynamic refugia have demographic consequences for a winter-adapted bird.

For overwintering species, individuals' ability to find refugia from inclement weather and predators probably confers strong fitness benefits. How animals use their environment can be mediated by their personality (e.g. risk-taking), but does personality mediate how overwintering species select refugia? Snow cover is a dynamic winter characteristic that can influence crypsis or provide below-the-snow refugia. We explored how wintering ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus) selected snow roosting sites, a behaviour that reduces stress and cold exposure. We linked selection for approximately 700 roosts with survival of 42 grouse, and showed that grouse generally selected deeper snow and warmer areas. Grouse found in shallow snow were less likely to survive winter. However, individuals that selected deep snow improved their survival, suggesting that demographic consequences of selecting winter refugia are mediated by differences in personality. Our study provides a crucial, and seldom addressed, link between personality in resource selection and resulting demographic consequences.

Avian responses to extreme weather across functional traits and temporal scales.

Extreme weather, including heat waves, droughts, and high rainfall, is becoming more common and affecting a diversity of species and taxa. However, researchers lack a framework that can anticipate how diverse species will respond to weather extremes spanning weeks to months. Here we used high-resolution occurrence data from eBird, a global citizen science initiative, and dynamic species distribution models to examine how 109 North American bird species ranging in migration distance, diet, body size, habitat preference, and prevalence (commonness) respond to extreme heat, drought, and rainfall across a wide range of temporal scales. Across species, temperature influenced species' distributions more than precipitation at weekly and monthly scales, while precipitation was more important at seasonal scales. Phylogenetically controlled multivariate models revealed that migration distance was the most important factor mediating responses to extremely hot or dry weeks; residents and short-distance migrants occurred less often following extreme heat. At monthly or seasonal scales, less common birds experienced decreases in occurrence following drought-like conditions, while widespread species were unaffected. Spatial predictions demonstrated variation in responses to extreme weather across species' ranges, with predicted decreases in occurrence up to 40% in parts of ranges. Our results highlight that extreme weather has variable and potentially strong implications for birds at different time scales, but these responses are mediated by life-history characteristics. As weather once considered extreme occurs more frequently, researchers and managers require a better understanding of how diverse species respond to extreme conditions.

Future winters present a complex energetic landscape of decreased costs and reduced risk for a freeze-tolerant amphibian, the Wood Frog (Lithobates sylvaticus).

Winter climate warming is rapidly leading to changes in snow depth and soil temperatures across mid- and high-latitude ecosystems, with important implications for survival and distribution of species that overwinter beneath the snow. Amphibians are a particularly vulnerable group to winter climate change because of the tight coupling between their body temperature and metabolic rate. Here, we used a mechanistic microclimate model coupled to an animal biophysics model to predict the spatially explicit effects of future climate change on the wintering energetics of a freeze-tolerant amphibian, the Wood Frog (Lithobates sylvaticus), across its distributional range in the eastern United States. Our below-the-snow microclimate simulations were driven by dynamically downscaled climate projections from a regional climate model coupled to a one-dimensional model of the Laurentian Great Lakes. We found that warming soil temperatures and decreasing winter length have opposing effects on Wood Frog winter energy requirements, leading to geographically heterogeneous implications for Wood Frogs. While energy expenditures and peak body ice content were predicted to decline in Wood Frogs across most of our study region, we identified an area of heightened energetic risk in the northwestern part of the Great Lakes region where energy requirements were predicted to increase. Because Wood Frogs rely on body stores acquired in fall to fuel winter survival and spring breeding, increased winter energy requirements have the potential to impact local survival and reproduction. Given the geographically variable and intertwined drivers of future under-snow conditions (e.g., declining snow depths, rising air temperatures, shortening winters), spatially explicit assessments of species energetics and risk will be important to understanding the vulnerability of subnivium-adapted species.

Making inference with messy (citizen science) data: when are data accurate enough and how can they be improved?

Measurement or observation error is common in ecological data: as citizen scientists and automated algorithms play larger roles processing growing volumes of data to address problems at large scales, concerns about data quality and strategies for improving it have received greater focus. However, practical guidance pertaining to fundamental data quality questions for data users or managers-how accurate do data need to be and what is the best or most efficient way to improve it?-remains limited. We present a generalizable framework for evaluating data quality and identifying remediation practices, and demonstrate the framework using trail camera images classified using crowdsourcing to determine acceptable rates of misclassification and identify optimal remediation strategies for analysis using occupancy models. We used expert validation to estimate baseline classification accuracy and simulation to determine the sensitivity of two occupancy estimators (standard and false-positive extensions) to different empirical misclassification rates. We used regression techniques to identify important predictors of misclassification and prioritize remediation strategies. More than 93% of images were accurately classified, but simulation results suggested that most species were not identified accurately enough to permit distribution estimation at our predefined threshold for accuracy (<5% absolute bias). A model developed to screen incorrect classifications predicted misclassified images with >97% accuracy: enough to meet our accuracy threshold. Occupancy models that accounted for false-positive error provided even more accurate inference even at high rates of misclassification (30%). As simulation suggested occupancy models were less sensitive to additional false-negative error, screening models or fitting occupancy models accounting for false-positive error emerged as efficient data remediation solutions. Combining simulation-based sensitivity analysis with empirical estimation of baseline error and its variability allows users and managers of potentially error-prone data to identify and fix problematic data more efficiently. It may be particularly helpful for "big data" efforts dependent upon citizen scientists or automated classification algorithms with many downstream users, but given the ubiquity of observation or measurement error, even conventional studies may benefit from focusing more attention upon data quality.

Top-down effects of repatriating bald eagles hinder jointly recovering competitors.

The recovery of piscivorous birds around the world is touted as one of the great conservation successes of the 21st century, but for some species, this success was short-lived. Bald eagles, ospreys and great blue herons began repatriating Voyageurs National Park, USA, in the mid-20th century. However, after 1990, only eagles continued their recovery, while osprey and heron recovery failed for unknown reasons. We aimed to evaluate whether top-down effects of bald eagles and bottom-up effects of inclement weather, habitat quality and fish resources contributed to the failed recovery of ospreys and herons in a protected area. We quantified the relative influence of top-down and bottom-up factors on nest colonization, persistence (i.e., nest reuse) and success for ospreys, and occurrence and size of heronries using 26 years (1986-2012) of spatially explicit monitoring data coupled with multi-response hierarchical models and Bayesian variable selection approaches. Bald eagles were previously shown to recover faster due to intensive nest protection and management. Increased numbers of eagles were associated with a reduction in the numbers of osprey nests, their nesting success and heronry size, while higher local densities of nesting eagles deterred heronries nearby. We found little evidence of bottom-up limitations on the failed recovery of herons and ospreys. We present a conservation conundrum: bald eagles are top predators and a flagship species of conservation that have benefited from intensive protection, but this likely hindered the recovery of ospreys and herons. Returning top predators, or rewilding, is widely promoted as a conservation strategy for top-down ecosystem recovery, but managing top predators in isolation of jointly recovering species can halt or reverse ecosystem recovery. Previous studies warn of the potential consequences of ignoring biotic interactions amongst recovering species, but we go further by quantifying how these interactions contributed to failed recoveries via impacts on the nesting demography of jointly recovering species. Multi-species management is paramount to realizing the ecosystem benefits of top predator recovery.

Value of protected areas to avian persistence across 20 years of climate and land-use change.

Establishing protected areas, where human activities and land cover changes are restricted, is among the most widely used strategies for biodiversity conservation. This practice is based on the assumption that protected areas buffer species from processes that drive extinction. However, protected areas can maintain biodiversity in the face of climate change and subsequent shifts in distributions have been questioned. We evaluated the degree to which protected areas influenced colonization and extinction patterns of 97 avian species over 20 years in the northeastern United States. We fitted single-visit dynamic occupancy models to data from Breeding Bird Atlases to quantify the magnitude of the effect of drivers of local colonization and extinction (e.g., climate, land cover, and amount of protected area) in heterogeneous landscapes that varied in the amount of area under protection. Colonization and extinction probabilities improved as the amount of protected area increased, but these effects were conditional on landscape context and species characteristics. In this forest-dominated region, benefits of additional land protection were greatest when both forest cover in a grid square and amount of protected area in neighboring grid squares were low. Effects did not vary with species' migratory habit or conservation status. Increasing the amounts of land protection benefitted the range margins species but not the core range species. The greatest improvements in colonization and extinction rates accrued for forest birds relative to open-habitat or generalist species. Overall, protected areas stemmed extinction more than they promoted colonization. Our results indicate that land protection remains a viable conservation strategy despite changing habitat and climate, as protected areas both reduce the risk of local extinction and facilitate movement into new areas. Our findings suggest conservation in the face of climate change favors creation of new protected areas over enlarging existing ones as the optimal strategy to reduce extinction and provide stepping stones for the greatest number of species.

Valor de las Áreas Protegidas para la Persistencia de Aves a lo largo de 20 Años de Cambio Climático y Cambios en el Uso de Suelo Resumen El establecimiento de áreas protegidas, donde las actividades humanas y los cambios en la cobertura de suelo están restringidos, es una de las estrategias más utilizadas para la conservación de la biodiversidad. Esta práctica está basada en la suposición de que las áreas protegidas guarecen a las especies de los procesos que ocasionan la extinción. Sin embargo, se ha cuestionado si las áreas protegidas pueden mantener la biodiversidad de cara al cambio climático y los cambios subsecuentes en su distribución. Evaluamos el grado al cual las áreas protegidas influyeron sobre los patrones de colonización y extinción de 97 especies de aves durante 20 años en el noreste de los Estados Unidos. Ajustamos los modelos de ocupación dinámica de visita única a los datos de los Atlas de Aves Reproductoras para cuantificar la magnitud del efecto de los causantes de colonización y extinción local (p. ej.: clima, cobertura de suelo, tamaño del área protegida) en paisajes heterogéneos que variaron en cantidad de área bajo protección. Las probabilidades de colonización y extinción mejoraron conforme aumentó el tamaño del área protegida, pero estos efectos fueron condicionales con respecto al contexto del paisaje y a las características de la especie. En esta región dominada por bosques, los beneficios de una protección adicional del suelo fueron mayores cuando la cobertura de bosque en una cuadrícula y el tamaño del área protegida en una cuadrícula adyacente fueron bajos. Los efectos no variaron acorde a los hábitos migratorios o al estado de conservación de la especie. El aumento en la cantidad de suelo protegido benefició a las especies en los márgenes de su extensión pero no en la extensión nuclear de la especie. La mayores mejorías en la colonización y en las tasas de extinción se acumularon para las aves de bosque en relación con especies generalistas o de hábitat abierto. En general, las áreas protegidas frenaron la extinción más veces de las que promovieron la colonización. Nuestros resultados indican que la protección de suelo permanece como una estrategia viable de conservación a pesar del cambio que existe en los hábitats y en el clima ya que las áreas protegidas reducen el riesgo de extinción local y facilitan el movimiento hacia zonas nuevas. Nuestros hallazgos sugieren que la conservación de cara al cambio climático favorece la creación de nuevas áreas protegidas por encima del aumento de las ya existentes como la estrategia óptima para reducir la extinción y proporcionar escalones para el mayor número de especies.

Snow roosting reduces temperature-associated stress in a wintering bird.

Animals in temperate northern regions employ a variety of strategies to cope with the energetic demands of winter. Behavioral plasticity may be important, as winter weather conditions are increasingly variable as a result of modern climate change. If behavioral strategies for thermoregulation are no longer effective in a changing environment, animals may experience physiological stress, which can have fitness consequences. We monitored winter roosting behavior of radio-tagged ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus), recorded snow depth and temperature, and assayed droppings for fecal corticosterone metabolites (FCM). Grouse FCM levels increased with declining temperatures. FCM levels were high when snow was shallow, but decreased rapidly as snow depth increased beyond 20 cm. When grouse used snow burrows, there was no effect of temperature on FCM levels. Snow burrowing is an important strategy that appears to allow grouse to mediate the possibly stressful effects of cold temperatures. This is one of the first studies to explore how variable winter weather conditions influence stress in a free-living cold-adapted vertebrate and its ability to mediate this relationship behaviorally. Animals that depend on the snowpack as a winter refuge will likely experience increased stress and possible fitness costs resulting from the loss of snow cover due to climate change.

Prey abundance and urbanization influence the establishment of avian predators in a metropolitan landscape.

Urbanization causes the simplification of natural habitats, resulting in animal communities dominated by exotic species with few top predators. In recent years, however, many predators such as hawks, and in the US coyotes and cougars, have become increasingly common in urban environments. Hawks in the Accipiter genus, especially, are recovering from widespread population declines and are increasingly common in urbanizing landscapes. Our goal was to identify factors that determine the occupancy, colonization and persistence of Accipiter hawks in a major metropolitan area. Through a novel combination of citizen science and advanced remote sensing, we quantified how urban features facilitate the dynamics and long-term establishment of Accipiter hawks. Based on data from Project FeederWatch, we quantified 21 years (1996-2016) of changes in the spatio-temporal dynamics of Accipiter hawks in Chicago, IL, USA. Using a multi-season occupancy model, we estimated Cooper's (Accipiter cooperii) and sharp-shinned (A. striatus) hawk occupancy dynamics as a function of tree canopy cover, impervious surface cover and prey availability. In the late 1990s, hawks occupied 26% of sites around Chicago, but after two decades, their occupancy fluctuated close to 67% of sites and they colonized increasingly urbanized areas. Once established, hawks persisted in areas with high levels of impervious surfaces as long as those areas supported high abundances of prey birds. Urban areas represent increasingly habitable environments for recovering predators, and understanding the precise urban features that drive colonization and persistence is important for wildlife conservation in an urbanizing world.

Conserving and managing the subnivium.

In regions where snowfall historically has been a defining seasonal characteristic of the landscape, warming winters have reduced the depth, duration, and extent of snowpack. However, most management and conservation has focused on how aboveground wildlife will be affected by altered snow conditions, even though the majority of species that persist through the winter do so under the snowpack in a thermally stable refugium: the subnivium. Shortened winters, forest management practices, and winter recreation can alter subnivium conditions by increasing snow compaction and compromising thermal stability at the soil-snow interface. To help slow the loss of the subnivium in the face of rapidly changing winter conditions, we suggest managers adopt regional conservation plans for identifying threatened snow-covered environments; measure and predict the effects land cover and habitat management has on local subnivium conditions; and control the timing and distribution of activities that disturb and compact snow cover (e.g., silvicultural practices, snow recreation, and road and trail maintenance). As a case study, we developed a spatially explicit model of subnivium presence in a working landscape of the Chequamegon National Forest, Wisconsin. We identified landscapes where winter recreation and management practices could threaten potentially important areas for subnivium persistence. Similar modeling approaches could inform management decisions related to subnivium conservation. Current climate projections predict that snow seasons will change rapidly in many regions, and as result, we advocate for the immediate recognition, conservation, and management of the subnivium and its dependent species.

Effects of temperature and precipitation on grassland bird nesting success as mediated by patch size.

Grassland birds are declining faster than any other bird guild across North America. Shrinking ranges and population declines are attributed to widespread habitat loss and increasingly fragmented landscapes of agriculture and other land uses that are misaligned with grassland bird conservation. Concurrent with habitat loss and degradation, temperate grasslands have been disproportionally affected by climate change relative to most other terrestrial biomes. Distributions of grassland birds often correlate with gradients in climate, but few researchers have explored the consequences of weather on the demography of grassland birds inhabiting a range of grassland fragments. To do so, we modeled the effects of temperature and precipitation on nesting success rates of 12 grassland bird species inhabiting a range of grassland patches across North America (21,000 nests from 81 individual studies). Higher amounts of precipitation in the preceding year were associated with higher nesting success, but wetter conditions during the active breeding season reduced nesting success. Extremely cold or hot conditions during the early breeding season were associated with lower rates of nesting success. The direct and indirect influence of temperature and precipitation on nesting success was moderated by grassland patch size. The positive effects of precipitation in the preceding year on nesting success were strongest in relatively small grassland patches and had little effect in large patches. Conversely, warm temperatures reduced nesting success in small grassland patches but increased nesting success in large patches. Mechanisms underlying these differences may be patch-size-induced variation in microclimates and predator activity. Although the exact cause is unclear, large grassland patches, the most common metric of grassland conservation, appears to moderate the effects of weather on grassland-bird demography and could be an effective component of climate-change adaptation.