Predicting futility of upfront surgery in perihilar cholangiocarcinoma: Machine learning analytics model to optimize treatment allocation.

BACKGROUND: While resection remains the only curative option for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma, it is well known that such surgery is associated with a high risk of morbidity and mortality. Nevertheless, beyond facing life-threatening complications, patients may also develop early disease recurrence, defining a "futile" outcome in perihilar cholangiocarcinoma surgery. The aim of this study is to predict the high-risk category (futile group) where surgical benefits are reversed and alternative treatments may be considered. METHODS: The study cohort included prospectively maintained data from 27 Western tertiary referral centers: the population was divided into a development and a validation cohort. The Framingham Heart Study methodology was used to develop a preoperative scoring system predicting the "futile" outcome. RESULTS: A total of 2271 cases were analyzed: among them, 309 were classified within the "futile group" (13.6%). American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA) score ≥ 3 (OR 1.60; p = 0.005), bilirubin at diagnosis ≥50 mmol/L (OR 1.50; p = 0.025), Ca 19-9 ≥ 100 U/mL (OR 1.73; p = 0.013), preoperative cholangitis (OR 1.75; p = 0.002), portal vein involvement (OR 1.61; p = 0.020), tumor diameter ≥3 cm (OR 1.76; p < 0.001), and left-sided resection (OR 2.00; p < 0.001) were identified as independent predictors of futility. The point system developed, defined three (ie, low, intermediate, and high) risk classes, which showed good accuracy (AUC 0.755) when tested on the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The possibility to accurately estimate, through a point system, the risk of severe postoperative morbidity and early recurrence, could be helpful in defining the best management strategy (surgery vs. nonsurgical treatments) according to preoperative features.

Towards Equal Access to Cytoreductive Surgery with Hyperthermic Intraperitoneal Chemotherapy and Survival in Patients with Isolated Colorectal Peritoneal Metastases: A Nationwide Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND: Before 2016, patients with isolated synchronous colorectal peritoneal metastases (PMCRC) diagnosed in expert centers had a higher odds of undergoing cytoreductive surgery with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS-HIPEC) and better overall survival (OS) than those diagnosed in referring centers. Nationwide efforts were initiated to increase awareness and improve referral networks. METHODS: This nationwide study aimed to evaluate whether the between-center differences in odds of undergoing CRS-HIPEC and OS have reduced since these national efforts were initiated. All patients with isolated synchronous PMCRC diagnosed between 2009 and 2021 were identified from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Associations between hospital of diagnosis and the odds of undergoing CRS-HIPEC, as well as OS, were assessed using multilevel multivariable regression analyses for two periods (2009-2015 and 2016-2021). RESULTS: In total, 3948 patients were included. The percentage of patients undergoing CRS-HIPEC increased from 17.2% in 2009-2015 (25.4% in expert centers, 16.5% in referring centers), to 23.4% in 2016-2021 (30.2% in expert centers, 22.6% in referring centers). In 2009-2015, compared with diagnosis in a referring center, diagnosis in a HIPEC center showed a higher odds of undergoing CRS-HIPEC (odds ratio [OR] 1.64, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-2.67) and better survival (hazard ratio [HR] 0.80, 95% CI 0.66-0.96). In 2016-2021, there were no differences in the odds of undergoing CRS-HIPEC between patients diagnosed in HIPEC centers versus referring centers (OR 1.27, 95% CI 0.76-2.13) and survival (HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.76-1.32). CONCLUSION: Previously observed differences in odds of undergoing CRS-HIPEC were no longer present. Increased awareness and the harmonization of treatment for PMCRC may have contributed to equal access to care and a similar chance of survival at a national level.

Development and External Validation of a Model to Predict Overall Survival in Patients With Resected Gallbladder Cancer.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop and validate a clinical prediction model to predict overall survival in patients with nonmetastatic, resected gallbladder cancer (GBC). BACKGROUND: Although several tools are available, no optimal method has been identified to assess survival in patients with resected GBC. METHODS: Data from a Dutch, nation-wide cohort of patients with resected GBC was used to develop a prediction model for overall survival. The model was internally validated and a cohort of Australian GBC patients who underwent resection was used for external validation. The performance of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system and the present model were compared. RESULTS: In total, 446 patients were included; 380 patients in the development cohort and 66 patients in the validation cohort. In the development cohort median survival was 22 months (median follow-up 75 months). Age, T/N classification, resection margin, differentiation grade, and vascular invasion were independent predictors of survival. The externally validated C-index was 0.75 (95%CI: 0.69-0.80), implying good discriminatory capacity. The discriminative ability of the present model after internal validation was superior to the ability of the AJCC staging system (Harrell C-index 0.71, [95%CI: 0.69-0.72) vs. 0.59 (95% CI: 0.57-0.60)]. CONCLUSION: The proposed model for the prediction of overall survival in patients with resected GBC demonstrates good discriminatory capacity, reasonable calibration and outperforms the authoritative AJCC staging system. This model can be a useful tool for physicians and patients to obtain information about survival after resection and is available from https:// gallbladderresearch.shinyapps.io/Predict_GBC_survival/.

Oncological Safety and Potential Cost Savings of Routine vs Selective Histopathological Examination After Appendectomy: Results of the Multicenter, Prospective, Cross-Sectional FANCY Study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the oncological safety and potential cost savings of selective histopathological examination after appendectomy. BACKGROUND: The necessity of routine histopathological examination after appendectomy has been questioned, but prospective studies investigating the safety of a selective policy are lacking. METHODS: In this multicenter, prospective, cross-sectional study, inspection and palpation of the (meso)appendix was performed by the surgeon in patients with suspected appendicitis. The surgeon's opinion on additional value of histopathological examination was reported before sending all specimens to the pathologist. Main outcomes were the number of hypothetically missed appendiceal neoplasms with clinical consequences benefiting the patient (upper limit two-sided 95% confidence interval below 3:1000 considered oncologically safe) and potential cost savings after selective histopathological examination. RESULTS: Seven thousand three hundred thirty-nine patients were included. After a selective policy, 4966/7339 (67.7%) specimens would have been refrained from histopathological examination. Appendiceal neoplasms with clinical consequences would have been missed in 22/4966 patients. In 5/22, residual disease was completely resected during additional surgery. Hence, an appendiceal neoplasm with clinical consequences benefiting the patient would have been missed in 1.01:1000 patients (upper limit 95% confidence interval 1.61:1000). In contrast, twice as many patients (10/22) would not have been exposed to potential harm due to re-resections without clear benefit, whereas consequences were neither beneficial nor harmful in the remaining seven. Estimated cost savings established by replacing routine for selective histopathological examination were €725,400 per 10,000 patients. CONCLUSIONS: Selective histopathological examination after appendectomy for suspected appendicitis is oncologically safe and will likely result in a reduction of pathologists' workload, less costs, and fewer re-resections without clear benefit.

The diagnostic value of staging laparoscopy in gallbladder cancer: a nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Disseminated disease (DD) is often found at (re-)exploration in gallbladder cancer (GBC) patients. We aimed to assess the yield of staging laparoscopy (SL) and identify predictors for DD. METHODS: This retrospective study included patients from all Dutch academic centres with primary GBC (pGBC) and incidentally diagnosed GBC (iGBC) planned for (re-)resection. The yield of SL was determined. In iGBC, predictive factors for DD were assessed. RESULTS: In total, 290 patients were included. Of 183 included pGBC patients, 143 underwent laparotomy without SL, and 42 (29%) showed DD perioperatively. SL, conducted in 40 patients, identified DD in eight. DD was found in nine of 32 patients who underwent laparotomy after SL. Of 107 included iGBC patients, 100 underwent laparotomy without SL, and 19 showed DD perioperatively. SL, conducted in seven patients, identified DD in one. Cholecystitis (OR = 4.25; 95% CI 1.51-11.91) and primary R1/R2 resection (OR = 3.94; 95% CI 1.39-11.19) were independent predictive factors for DD. CONCLUSIONS: In pGBC patients, SL may identify DD in up to 20% of patients and should be part of standard management. In iGBC patients, SL is indicated after primary resection for cholecystitis and after initial R1/R2 resection due to the association of these factors with DD.

A mixed-methods study to define Textbook Outcome for the treatment of patients with uncomplicated symptomatic gallstone disease with hospital variation analyses in Dutch trial data.

BACKGROUND: International consensus on the ideal outcome for treatment of uncomplicated symptomatic gallstone disease is absent. This mixed-method study defined a Textbook Outcome (TO) for this large group of patients. METHODS: First, expert meetings were organised with stakeholders to design the survey and identify possible outcomes. To reach consensus, results from expert meetings were converted in a survey for clinicians and for patients. During the final expert meeting, clinicians and patients discussed survey outcomes and a definitive TO was formulated. Subsequently, TO-rate and hospital variation were analysed in Dutch hospital data from patients with uncomplicated gallstone disease. RESULTS: First expert meetings returned 32 outcomes. Outcomes were distributed in a survey among 830 clinicians from 81 countries and 645 Dutch patients. Consensus-based TO was defined as no more biliary colic, no biliary and surgical complications, and the absence or reduction of abdominal pain. Analysis of individual patient data showed that TO was achieved in 64.2% (1002/1561). Adjusted-TO rates showed modest variation between hospitals (56.6-74.9%). CONCLUSION: TO for treatment of uncomplicated gallstone disease was defined as no more biliary colic, no biliary and surgical complications, and absence or reduction of abdominal pain.TO may optimise consistent outcome reporting in care and guidelines for treating uncomplicated gallstone disease.

Cost-effectiveness of Restrictive Strategy Versus Usual Care for Cholecystectomy in Patients With Gallstones and Abdominal Pain (SECURE-trial).

OBJECTIVE: To perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of restrictive strategy versus usual care in patients with gallstones and abdominal pain. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: A restrictive selection strategy for surgery in patients with gallstones reduces cholecystectomies, but the impact on overall costs and cost-effectiveness is unknown. METHODS: Data of a multicentre, randomized-controlled trial (SECURE-trial) were used. Adult patients with gallstones and abdominal pain were included. Restrictive strategy was economically evaluated against usual care from a societal perspective. Hospital-use of resources was gathered with case-report forms and out-of-hospital consultations, out-of-pocket expenses, and productivity loss were collected with questionnaires. National unit costing was applied. The primary outcome was the cost per pain-free patient after 12 months. RESULTS: All 1067 randomized patients (49.0 years, 73.7% females) were included. After 12 months, 56.2% of patients were pain-free in restrictive strategy versus 59.8% after usual care. The restrictive strategy significantly reduced the cholecystectomy rate with 7.7% and reduced surgical costs with €160 per patient, €162 was saved from a societal perspective. The cost-effectiveness plane showed that restrictive strategy was cost saving in 89.1%, but resulted in less pain-free patients in 88.5%. Overall, the restrictive strategy saved €4563 from a societal perspective per pain-free patient lost. CONCLUSIONS: A restrictive selection strategy for cholecystectomy saves €162 compared to usual care, but results in fewer pain-free patients. The incremental cost per pain-free patient are savings of €4563 per pain-free patient lost. The higher societal willingness to pay for 1 extra pain-free patient, the lower the probability that the restrictive strategy will be cost-effective. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The Netherlands National Trial Register NTR4022. Registered on 5 June 2013.

Functional Dyspepsia and Irritable Bowel Syndrome are Highly Prevalent in Patients With Gallstones and Are Negatively Associated With Outcomes After Cholecystectomy: A Prospective, Multicenter, Observational Study (PERFECT - Trial).

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of FD and IBS in patients eligible for cholecystectomy and to investigate the association between presence of FD/ IBS and resolution of biliary colic and a pain-free state. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: More than 30% of patients with symptomatic cholecystolithiasis reports persisting pain postcholecystectomy. Coexistence of FD/IBS may contribute to this unsatisfactory outcome. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, prospective, observational study (PERFECT-trial). Patients ≥18 years with abdominal pain and gallstones were included at 5 surgical outpatient clinics between 01/2018 and 04/2019. Follow-up was 6 months. Primary outcomes were prevalence of FD/IBS, and the difference between resolution of biliary colic and pain-free state in patients with and without FD/IBS. FD/IBS was defined by the Rome IV criteria, biliary colic by the Rome III criteria, and pain-free by an Izbicki Pain Score ≤10 and visual analogue scale ≤4. RESULTS: We included 401 patients with abdominal pain and gallstones (assumed eligible for cholecystectomy), mean age 52 years, 76% females. Of these, 34.9% fulfilled criteria for FD/IBS. 64.1% fulfilled criteria for biliary colic and 74.9% underwent cholecystectomy, with similar operation rates in patients with and without FD/IBS. Postcholecystectomy, 6.1% of patients fulfilled criteria for biliary colic, with no significant difference between those with and without FD/IBS at baseline (4.9% vs 8.6%, P = 0.22). Of all patients, 56.8% was pain-free after cholecystectomy, 40.7% of FD/IBS-group vs 64.4% of no FD/IBS-group, P < 0.001. CONCLUSIONS: One third of patients eligible for cholecystectomy fulfil criteria for FD/IBS. Biliary colic is reported by only a few patients postcholecys-tectomy, whereas nonbiliary abdominal pain persists in >40%, particularly in those with FD/IBS precholecystectomy. Clinicians should take these symptom-dependent outcomes into account in their shared decision-making process. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The Netherlands Trial Register NTR-7307. Registered on 18 June 2018.

In Patients Undergoing CRS/HIPEC for Colorectal Adenocarcinoma with Peritoneal Metastases, Presence of Ascites on Computed Tomography Imaging is not a Prognostic Marker for Survival.

BACKGROUND: Cytoreductive surgery (CRS) combined with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) is a potentially curative treatment for patients with colorectal peritoneal metastases (CRPM). Patient selection is key to optimizing outcomes after CRS/HIPEC. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of ascites diagnosed on preoperative imaging. METHODS: A prospective database of patients eligible for CRS/HIPEC between 2010 and 2020 was retrospectively analyzed. The presence of ascites, postoperative complications, overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), and completeness of cytoreduction were assessed. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors for outcome. RESULTS: Of the 235 included patients, 177 (75%) underwent CRS/HIPEC while 58 (25%) were not eligible for CRS/HIPEC. In 42 of the 177 patients (24%) who underwent CRS/HIPEC, ascites was present on preoperative computed tomography (CT) imaging. Peritoneal Cancer Index (PCI) score was significantly higher in patients with preoperative ascites compared with patients without (11 [range 2-30] vs. 9 [range 0-28], respectively; p = 0.011) and complete cytoreduction was more often achieved in patients without ascites (96.3% vs. 85.7%; p = 0.007). There was no significant difference in median DFS and OS after CRS/HIPEC between patients with and without ascites {10 months (95% confidence interval [CI] 7.1-12.9) vs. 9 months (95% CI 7.2-10.8), and 25 months (95% 9.4-40.6) vs. 27 months (95% CI 22.4-31.6), respectively}. CONCLUSIONS: Ascites on preoperative imaging was not associated with worse survival in CRS/HIPEC patients with CRPM. Therefore, excluding patients from CRS/HIPEC based merely on the presence of ascites is not advisable.

Survival Outcomes After Cytoreductive Surgery with Hyperthermic Intraperitoneal Chemotherapy in Patients with Synchronous Versus Metachronous Onset of Peritoneal Metastases of Colorectal Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Cytoreductive surgery (CRS) with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) is a treatment option for peritoneal metastases (PM) from colorectal carcinoma (CRC). Because of considerable morbidity, optimal patient selection is essential. This study was designed to determine the impact of the onset of PM (synchronous vs. metachronous) on survival outcomes after CRS-HIPEC. METHODS: Patients undergoing CRS-HIPEC for colorectal PM in two academic centers in the Netherlands between 2010 and 2020 were eligible for inclusion. Patients were classified as synchronous (s-PM, i.e., diagnosis at time of presentation, staging, or primary surgery) or metachronous onset (m-PM, i.e., diagnosis during follow-up) of colorectal PM. Survival outcomes were compared between groups by Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: Of 390 included patients, 179 (45.9%) had synchronous onset of colorectal PM. These patients more often presented with higher TN-stage and poor differentiation/signet cell histology. Treatment with perioperative chemotherapy was more common in s-PM patients. m-PM patients experienced more serious postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo ≥ III). There was no significant difference in disease-free survival (DFS) between s-PM (median 9 months, interquartile range [IQR] 5-15) and m-PM patients (median 8 months, IQR 5-17). Overall survival (OS) was significantly shorter for s-PM (median 28 months, IQR 11-48) versus m-PM patients (median 33 months, IQR 18-66, p = 0.049). Synchronous onset of PM was not independently associated with OS in a multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Synchronous onset of colorectal PM was associated with poor tumor characteristics and more advanced disease, but was not an independent predictor of survival outcomes after CRS-HIPEC.

Tailoring diagnosis and treatment in symptomatic gallstone disease.

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of consensus in selecting patients who do or do not benefit from surgery when patients present with abdominal pain and gallbladder stones are present. This review aimed to give an overview of results from recent trials and available literature to improve treatment decisions in patients with uncomplicated cholecystolithiasis. METHODS: First, an overview of different symptom criteria for laparoscopic cholecystectomy in patients with uncomplicated cholecystolithiasis is given, based on national and international guidelines. Second, treatment outcomes (absence of biliary colic, pain-free state, biliary and surgical complications) are summarized, with data from three clinical trials. Finally, personal advice for treatment decisions in patients with uncomplicated cholecystolithiasis is provided, based on recent trials, the available literature, and expert opinion. RESULTS: This review describes different guidelines and criteria sets for uncomplicated cholecystolithiasis, provides an overview of outcomes after cholecystectomy, and advises on treatment decisions in patients with abdominal pain and gallbladder stones. After cholecystectomy, biliary colic is resolved in 95 per cent of patients. However, non-specific abdominal pain persists in 40 per cent. Irritable bowel syndrome and functional dyspepsia significantly increase the risk of persistent pain. Age, previous abdominal surgery, baseline pain score on a visual analogue scale, pain characteristics, nausea, and heartburn are part of the SUCCESS criteria, and are associated with clinically relevant pain reduction after gallbladder removal. CONCLUSION: The surgical community can now give more personalized advice on surgery to improve care for patients with abdominal pain and uncomplicated cholecystolithiasis.

In primary care, more than 50 per cent of patients with ultrasonographically diagnosed gallbladder stones are diagnosed with concomitant abdominal disorders Laparoscopic cholecystectomy resolves biliary colic in 95 per cent of patients; however non-specific abdominal pain persists in up to 40 per cent Functional dyspepsia and irritable bowel syndrome significantly increase the risk of persistent pain after laparoscopic cholecystectomy Predictive factors for pain relief after cholecystectomy are older age, absence of previous surgery, pain characteristics, and absence of functional gastrointestinal disorders.

Safety and economic analysis of selective histopathology following cholecystectomy: multicentre, prospective, cross-sectional FANCY study.

BACKGROUND: There is ongoing debate concerning the necessity of routine histopathological examination following cholecystectomy. In order to reduce the pathology workload and save costs, a selective approach has been suggested, but evidence regarding its oncological safety is lacking. METHODS: In this multicentre, prospective, cross-sectional study, all gallbladders removed for gallstone disease or cholecystitis were systematically examined by the surgeon for macroscopic abnormalities indicative of malignancy. Before sending all specimens to the pathologist, the surgeon judged whether histopathological examination was indicated. The main outcomes were the number of patients with hypothetically missed malignancy with clinical consequences (upper limit two-sided 95 per cent c.i. below 3:1000 considered oncologically safe) and potential cost savings of selective histopathological examination. RESULTS: Twenty-two (2.19:1000) of 10 041 specimens exhibited malignancy with clinical consequences. In case of a selective policy, surgeons would have held back 7846 of 10041 (78.1 per cent) gallbladders from histopathological examination. Malignancy with clinical consequences would have been missed in seven of 7846 patients (0.89:1000, upper limit 95% c.i. 1.40:1000). No patient benefitted from the clinical consequences, while two were harmed (futile additional surgery). Of 15 patients in whom malignancy with clinical consequences would have been diagnosed, one benefitted (residual disease radically removed), two potentially benefitted (palliative systemic therapy), and four experienced harm (futile additional surgery). Estimated cost savings established by replacing routine for selective histopathological examination were €703 500 per 10 000 patients. CONCLUSION: Selective histopathological examination following cholecystectomy is oncologically safe and could reduce pathology workload, costs, and futile re-resections.

Antibiotic prophylaxis for acute cholecystectomy: PEANUTS II multicentre randomized non-inferiority clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommending antibiotic prophylaxis at emergency cholecystectomy for cholecystitis were based on low-quality evidence. The aim of this trial was to demonstrate that omitting antibiotics is not inferior to their prophylactic use. METHODS: This multicentre, randomized, open-label, non-inferiority clinical trial randomly assigned adults with mild-to-moderate acute calculous cholecystitis (immediate cholecystectomy indicated) to 2 g cefazolin administered before incision or no antibiotic prophylaxis. The primary endpoint was a composite of all postoperative infectious complications in the first 30 days after surgery. Secondary endpoints included all individual components of the primary endpoint, other morbidity, and duration of hospital stay. RESULTS: Sixteen of 226 patients (7.1 per cent) in the single-dose prophylaxis group and 29 of 231 (12.6 per cent) in the no-prophylaxis group developed postoperative infectious complications (absolute difference 5.5 (95 per cent c.i. -0.4 to 11.3) per cent). With a non-inferiority margin of 10 per cent, non-inferiority of no prophylaxis was not proven. The number of surgical-site infections was significantly higher in the no-prophylaxis group (5.3 versus 12.1 per cent; P = 0.010). No differences were observed in the number of other complications, or duration of hospital stay. CONCLUSION: Omitting antibiotic prophylaxis is not recommended.

The impact of an open or laparoscopic approach on the development of metachronous peritoneal metastases after primary resection of colorectal cancer: results from a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to assess the impact of open or laparoscopic resection of primary colorectal cancer (CRC) on the development of metachronous colorectal peritoneal metastases (CPM) in a population-based cohort. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a retrospective, population-based study of CRC patients who underwent open or laparoscopic resection of the primary tumour in the Netherlands between January 1st and June 30th 2015. Patients with synchronous metastases were excluded. CPM were considered metachronous if diagnosed ≥ 90 days after resection of primary CRC. Multivariable cox regression analysis was performed to correct for tumour location, histology, differentiation, and stage, nodal stage, tumour perforation, primary surgery type, and unclear resection margins. RESULTS: In total, 1516 CRC patients underwent open resection and 3236 CRC patients underwent laparoscopic resection, with a 3-year cumulative incidence of metachronous CPM of 7.3% and 3.7%, respectively (p < 0.001), after median follow-up of 42 months. Open surgical approach was significantly associated with the development of metachronous CPM: HR 1.4 [95%CI 1.1-1.8]. Other prognostic factors were mucinous adenocarcinoma histology (HR 1.6, 95%CI 1.0-2.5), T4 stage (HR 3.2, 95%CI 2.3-4.5), N1 stage (HR 2.9, 95%CI 2.1-4.0), and N2 stage (HR 4.2, 95%CI 2.9-6.1). CONCLUSIONS: Patients treated with open resection had a significantly higher risk to develop metachronous CPM than patients treated with laparoscopic resection. The mechanisms underlying this phenomenon remain unknown but might be related to differences in per-operative specimen handling, tumour spill, surgical trauma and pro-inflammatory response. This finding might imply the need for a personalized follow-up after primary resection of CRC.

Performance of prognostic models incorporating KRAS mutation status to predict survival after resection of colorectal liver metastases.

BACKGROUND: The Genetic And Morphologic Evaluation (GAME) score and modified clinical score (m-CS) are two novel prognostic models that incorporate KRAS mutation status to predict survival after resection of colorectal liver metastases (CRLM). This retrospective cohort study evaluated the performance of these two models. METHODS: A total of 103 patients who underwent resection of CRLM between 2007 and 2017 and had known KRAS mutation status were included, 39 (37.9%) of whom had KRAS mutated tumours. Complete case analysis of the patients was performed according to the Clinical Risk Score (CRS), m-CS, and GAME score. The primary outcome was overall survival stratified according to low-risk and high-risk scores. Harrell's C-index and Akaike information criterion (AIC) were used to compare the discrimination of the evaluated prognostic models. RESULTS: The GAME score demonstrated the largest difference in overall survival for patients stratified according to low-risk and high-risk groups. Harrell's C-index values for the CRS, m-CS, and GAME models were 0.583, 0.600, and 0.668, respectively. AIC values for the CRS, m-CS, and GAME models were 441, 439, and 427, respectively. CONCLUSION: The GAME score outperforms the CRS and m-CS in predicting overall survival after resection of CRLM in patients with known KRAS mutation status.

Budget Impact of Restrictive Strategy Versus Usual Care for Cholecystectomy (SECURE-Trial).

OBJECTIVES: A cost-effectiveness analysis of a multicenter randomized-controlled trial comparing restrictive strategy versus usual care in patients with gallstones showed that savings by restrictive strategy could not compensate for the lower proportion of pain-free patients. However, four subgroups based on combined stratification factors resulted in less cholecystectomies and more pain-free patients in restrictive strategy (female-low volume-BMI > 30, female-low volume-BMI25-30, female-high volume-BMI25-30, and male-low volume-BMI < 25). The aim of this study was to explore the budget impact from a hospital healthcare perspective of implementation of restrictive strategy in these subgroups. METHODS: Data of the SECURE-trial were used to calculate the hospital budget impact with a time horizon of four years. Based on a study into practice variation, about 19% of hospitals treat patients according restrictive strategy. This represents the proportion of patients treated according restrictive strategy at the start of budget period. Three subanalyses were performed: a scenario analysis in which 30% of patients fall under a restrictive strategy in clinical practice, a sensitivity analysis in which we calculated the budget impact with the low and high 95% confidence limits of the expected future number of patients, a subgroup analysis in which restrictive strategy was also implemented in two additional subgroups (male-high volume-BMI < 25 and female-high volume-BMI >30). RESULTS: Budget impact analysis showed savings of €6.7-€15.6 million (2.2%-5.6%) for the period 2021-2024/2025 by implementing the restrictive strategy in the four subgroups and provision of usual care in other patients. Sensitivity analysis with 30% of patients already in the restrictive strategy at the start of the budget period, resulted in savings between €5.4 million and €14.0 million (1.7%-5.0%). CONCLUSION: Performing a restrictive strategy for selection of cholecystectomy in subgroups of patients and provision of usual care in other patients will result in a lower overall hospital budget needed to treat patients with abdominal pain and gallstones. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The Netherlands National Trial Register NTR4022. Registered on June 5, 2013.

Evaluation of a shared decision-making strategy with online decision aids in surgical and orthopaedic practice: study protocol for the E-valuAID, a multicentre study with a stepped-wedge design.

BACKGROUND: Inguinal hernia repair, gallbladder removal, and knee- and hip replacements are the most commonly performed surgical procedures, but all are subject to practice variation and variable patient-reported outcomes. Shared decision-making (SDM) has the potential to reduce surgery rates and increase patient satisfaction. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of an SDM strategy with online decision aids for surgical and orthopaedic practice in terms of impact on surgery rates, patient-reported outcomes, and cost-effectiveness. METHODS: The E-valuAID-study is designed as a multicentre, non-randomized stepped-wedge study in patients with an inguinal hernia, gallstones, knee or hip osteoarthritis in six surgical and six orthopaedic departments. The primary outcome is the surgery rate before and after implementation of the SDM strategy. Secondary outcomes are patient-reported outcomes and cost-effectiveness. Patients in the usual care cluster prior to implementation of the SDM strategy will be treated in accordance with the best available clinical evidence, physician's knowledge and preference and the patient's preference. The intervention consists of the implementation of the SDM strategy and provision of disease-specific online decision aids. Decision aids will be provided to the patients before the consultation in which treatment decision is made. During this consultation, treatment preferences are discussed, and the final treatment decision is confirmed. Surgery rates will be extracted from hospital files. Secondary outcomes will be evaluated using questionnaires, at baseline, 3 and 6 months. DISCUSSION: The E-valuAID-study will examine the cost-effectiveness of an SDM strategy with online decision aids in patients with an inguinal hernia, gallstones, knee or hip osteoarthritis. This study will show whether decision aids reduce operation rates while improving patient-reported outcomes. We hypothesize that the SDM strategy will lead to lower surgery rates, better patient-reported outcomes, and be cost-effective. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The Netherlands Trial Register, Trial NL8318, registered 22 January 2020. URL: https://www.trialregister.nl/trial/8318 .

Variation in practice and outcomes after inguinal hernia repair: a nationwide observational study.

BACKGROUND: Inguinal hernia repair has often been used as a showcase to illustrate practice variation in surgery. This study determined the degree of hospital variation in proportion of patients with an inguinal hernia undergoing operative repair and the effect of this variation on clinical outcomes. METHODS: A nationwide, longitudinal, database study was performed in all hospitals in the Netherlands between 2013 and 2015. Patients with inguinal hernias were collected from the Diagnosis-Related-Group (DRG) database. The case-mix adjusted operation rate in patients with a new DRG determines the observed variation. Hospital variation in case-mix adjusted inguinal hernia repair-rates was calculated per year. Clinical outcomes after surgery were compared between hospitals with high and low adjusted operation-rates. RESULTS: In total, 95,637 patients were included. The overall operation rate was 71.6%. In 2013-2015, the case-mix adjusted performance of inguinal hernia repairs in hospitals with high rates was 1.6-1.9 times higher than in hospitals with low rates. Moreover, in hospitals with high adjusted rates of inguinal hernia repair the time to surgery was shorter, more laparoscopic procedures were performed, less emergency department visits were recorded post-operatively, while more emergency department visits were recorded when patients were treated conservatively compared to hospitals with low adjusted operation rates. CONCLUSION: Hospital variation in inguinal hernia repair in the Netherlands is modest, operation-rates vary by less than two-fold, and variation is stable over time. Hernia repair in hospitals with high adjusted rates of inguinal hernia repair are associated with improved outcomes.

Restrictive strategy versus usual care for cholecystectomy in patients with gallstones and abdominal pain (SECURE): a multicentre, randomised, parallel-arm, non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: International guidelines advise laparoscopic cholecystectomy to treat symptomatic, uncomplicated gallstones. Usual care regarding cholecystectomy is associated with practice variation and persistent post-cholecystectomy pain in 10-41% of patients. We aimed to compare the non-inferiority of a restrictive strategy with stepwise selection with usual care to assess (in)efficient use of cholecystectomy. METHODS: We did a multicentre, randomised, parallel-arm, non-inferiority study in 24 academic and non-academic hospitals in the Netherlands. We enrolled patients aged 18-95 years with abdominal pain and ultrasound-proven gallstones or sludge. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to either usual care in which selection for cholecystectomy was left to the discretion of the surgeon, or a restrictive strategy with stepwise selection for cholecystectomy. For the restrictive strategy, cholecystectomy was advised for patients who fulfilled all five pre-specified criteria of the triage instrument: 1) severe pain attacks, 2) pain lasting 15-30 min or longer, 3) pain located in epigastrium or right upper quadrant, 4) pain radiating to the back, and 5) a positive pain response to simple analgesics. Randomisation was done with an online program, implemented into a web-based application using blocks of variable sizes, and stratified for centre (academic versus non-academic and a high vs low number of patients), sex, and body-mass index. Physicians and patients were masked for study-arm allocation until after completion of the triage instrument. The primary, non-inferiority, patient-reported endpoint was the proportion of patients who were pain-free at 12 months' follow-up, analysed by intention to treat and per protocol. A 5% non-inferiority margin was chosen, based on the estimated clinically relevant difference. Safety analyses were also done in the intention-to treat population. This trial is registered at the Netherlands National Trial Register, number NTR4022. FINDINGS: Between Feb 5, 2014, and April 25, 2017, we included 1067 patients for analysis: 537 assigned to usual care and 530 to the restrictive strategy. At 12 months' follow-up 298 patients (56%; 95% CI, 52·0-60·4) were pain-free in the restrictive strategy group, compared with 321 patients (60%, 55·6-63·8) in usual care. Non-inferiority was not shown (difference 3·6%; one-sided 95% lower CI -8·6%; pnon-inferiority=0·316). According to a secondary endpoint analysis, the restrictive strategy resulted in significantly fewer cholecystectomies than usual care (358 [68%] of 529 vs 404 [75%] of 536; p=0·01). There were no between-group differences in trial-related gallstone complications (40 patients [8%] of 529 in usual care vs 38 [7%] of 536 in restrictive strategy; p=0·16) and surgical complications (74 [21%] of 358 vs 88 [22%] of 404, p=0·77), or in non-trial-related serious adverse events (27 [5%] of 529 vs 29 [5%] of 526). INTERPRETATION: Suboptimal pain reduction in patients with gallstones and abdominal pain was noted with both usual care and following a restrictive strategy for selection for cholecystectomy. However, the restrictive strategy was associated with fewer cholecystectomies. The findings should encourage physicians involved in the care of patients with gallstones to rethink cholecystectomy, and to be more careful in advising a surgical approach in patients with gallstones and abdominal symptoms. FUNDING: The Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development, and CZ healthcare insurance.

Re-resection in Incidental Gallbladder Cancer: Survival and the Incidence of Residual Disease.

BACKGROUND: Re-resection for incidental gallbladder cancer (iGBC) is associated with improved survival but little is known about residual disease (RD) and prognostic factors. In this study, survival after re-resection, RD, and prognostic factors are analyzed. METHODS: Patients with iGBC were identified from the Netherlands Cancer Registry, and pathology reports of re-resected patients were reviewed. Survival and prognostic factors were analyzed. RESULTS: Overall, 463 patients were included; 24% (n = 110) underwent re-resection after a median interval of 66 days. RD was present in 35% of patients and was most frequently found in the lymph nodes (23%). R0 resection was achieved in 93 patients (92%). Median overall survival (OS) of patients without re-resection was 13.7 (95% confidence interval [CI] 11.6-15.6), compared with 52.6 months (95% CI 36.3-68.8) in re-resected patients (p < 0.001). After re-resection, median OS was superior in patients without RD versus patients with RD (not reached vs. 23.1 months; p < 0.001). In patients who underwent re-resection, RD in the liver (hazard ratio [HR] 5.54; p < 0.001) and lymph nodes (HR 2.35; p = 0.005) were the only significant prognostic factors in multivariable analysis. Predictive factors for the presence of RD were pT3 stage (HR 25.3; p = 0.003) and pN1 stage (HR 23.0; p = 0.022). CONCLUSION: Re-resection for iGBC is associated with improved survival but remains infrequently used and is often performed after the optimal timing interval. RD is the only significant prognostic factor for survival after re-resection and can be predicted by pT and pN stages.