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OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the occurrence of new hospital admissions for cases of psychosis in France. METHOD: We conducted a retrospective observational study from the French national PMSI database. We included patients hospitalized between 2018 and 2020 with a principal diagnosis of schizophrenia or delusional disorder with no history of psychosis in the previous 10 years. In total, we included 77,172 inpatients at crisis centers and/or in full-time hospitalization at 465 French hospitals. We assessed the number of inpatients during the year of the Covid crisis (2020) and the two years prior (2018, 2019). RESULTS: The number of inpatients in full-time hospitalization decreased gradually from 2018 to 2020 by 10.6%. This downward trend was observed in all age groups. In contrast, in crisis centers the number of inpatients increased by 13.4% between 2019 and 2020, while a 7.6% decrease was seen between 2018 and 2019. The greatest increase was observed in the 31-60-year age category, and particularly amongst 46-60-year-olds, i.e. 38.0%. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 crisis was associated with an increase in the number of inpatients with a new episode of psychosis in crisis centers but not in full-time hospitalization. The profile of patients in crisis centers was different from that seen in preceding years and included more middle-to-late age adults. Particular attention should be given to this category of patients in the crisis environment to prevent the occurrence of new cases of psychosis in France.
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PROBLEM STATEMENT: From 1999 to 2013 in the Democratic RC, monitoring of bacillary dysentery in bloody diarrhea revealed an average rate of attack in 620 out of 100,000 inhabitants. Within the study period, biological confirmation was available in less than 1% of cases. A dozen dysentery outbreaks were confirmed in laboratories as shigellosis. In this study, our objective is to improve dysentery surveillance. METHODS: A descriptive method based on epidemiological and biological data was applied, and a literature review was included. RESULTS: According to historical research, the first dysentery epidemics occurred in the Mayombe Region in the early 1920s. Spatial dynamics show that the eastern part of the country experienced the highest number of attacks. Time series of bloody diarrhea in the country have revealed a decrease since 2005. No seasonality was found. CONCLUSION: Shigellosis outbreaks have become rare and of low magnitude. Our results suggest a need for further exploration of the causes and determinants of high incidences of bloody diarrhea. Present-day diminution of shigellosis outbreaks calls for research into explanatory factors.
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Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Disenteria Bacilar/epidemiologia , República Democrática do Congo/epidemiologia , Humanos , Análise Espaço-TemporalRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Concern about health misinformation is longstanding, especially on the Internet. METHODS: Using agent-based models, we considered the effects of such misinformation on a norovirus outbreak, and some methods for countering the possible impacts of "good" and "bad" health advice. The work explicitly models spread of physical disease and information (both online and offline) as two separate but interacting processes. The models have multiple stochastic elements; repeat model runs were made to identify parameter values that most consistently produced the desired target baseline scenario. Next, parameters were found that most consistently led to a scenario when outbreak severity was clearly made worse by circulating poor quality disease prevention advice. Strategies to counter "fake" health news were tested. RESULTS: Reducing bad advice to 30% of total information or making at least 30% of people fully resistant to believing in and sharing bad health advice were effective thresholds to counteract the negative impacts of bad advice during a norovirus outbreak. CONCLUSION: How feasible it is to achieve these targets within communication networks (online and offline) should be explored.
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Infecções por Caliciviridae/epidemiologia , Comunicação , Surtos de Doenças , Letramento em Saúde , Internet , Norovirus/fisiologia , Análise de Sistemas , Acesso à Informação , Infecções por Caliciviridae/transmissão , Infecções por Caliciviridae/virologia , Informação de Saúde ao Consumidor/organização & administração , Informação de Saúde ao Consumidor/normas , Informação de Saúde ao Consumidor/estatística & dados numéricos , Letramento em Saúde/organização & administração , Letramento em Saúde/normas , Letramento em Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Disseminação de Informação , Serviços de Informação/organização & administração , Serviços de Informação/normas , Registros Públicos de Dados de Cuidados de SaúdeRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: The lack of ressources and coordination to face the epidemic of coronavirus raises concerns for the health of patients with mental disorders in a country where we keep in memory the dramatic experience of famine in psychiatric hospitals during the Second World War. This article aims at proposing guidance to ensure mental health care during the SARS-CoV epidemy in France. METHODS: Authors performed a narrative review identifying relevant results in the scientific and medical literature and local initiatives in France. RESULTS: We identified four types of major vulnerabilities in patients suffering from mental disorders during this pandemic: (1) medical comorbidities that are more frequently found in patients suffering from mental disorders (cardiovascular and pulmonary pathologies, diabetes, obesity, etc.) which represent risk factors for severe infections with Covid-19; (2) age (the elderly constituting the population most vulnerable to coronavirus); (3) cognitive and behavioral troubles which can hamper compliance with confinement and hygiene measures and finally and (4) psychosocial vulnerability due to stigmatization and/or socio-economic difficulties. Furthermore, the mental health healthcare system is more vulnerable than other healthcare systems. Current government plans are poorly adapted to psychiatric establishments in a context of major shortage of organizational, material and human resources. In addition, a certain number of structural aspects make the psychiatric institution particularly vulnerable: many beds are closed, wards have a high density of patients, mental health community facilities are closed, medical teams are understaffed and poorly trained to face infectious diseases. We could also face major issues in referring patients with acute mental disorders to intensive care units. To maintain continuity of psychiatric care in this pandemic situation, several directions can be considered, in particular with the creation of Covid+ units. These units are under the dual supervision of a psychiatrist and of an internist/infectious disease specialist; all new entrants should be placed in quarantine for 14 days; the nurse staff should benefit from specific training, from daily medical check-ups and from close psychological support. Family visits would be prohibited and replaced by videoconference. At the end of hospitalization, in particular for the population of patients in compulsory ambulatory care situations, specific case-management should be organized with the possibility of home visits, in order to support them when they get back home and to help them to cope with the experience of confinement, which is at risk to induce recurrences of mental disorders. The total or partial closure of mental health community facilities is particularly disturbing for patients but a regular follow-up is possible with telemedicine and should include the monitoring of the suicide risk and psychoeducation strategies; developing support platforms could also be very helpful in this context. Private psychiatrists have also a crucial role of information with their patients on confinement and barrier measures, but also on measures to prevent the psychological risks inherent to confinement: maintenance of sleep regularity, physical exercise, social interactions, stress management and coping strategies, prevention of addictions, etc. They should also be trained to prevent, detect and treat early warning symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder, because their prevalence was high in the regions of China most affected by the pandemic. DISCUSSION: French mental healthcare is now in a great and urgent need for reorganization and must also prepare in the coming days and weeks to face an epidemic of emotional disorders due to the containment of the general population.
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Betacoronavirus , Continuidade da Assistência ao Paciente/organização & administração , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Transtornos Mentais/terapia , Serviços de Saúde Mental/organização & administração , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Assistência ao Convalescente , Fatores Etários , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Antivirais/farmacocinética , Antivirais/uso terapêutico , COVID-19 , Criança , Transtornos Cognitivos/epidemiologia , Transtornos Cognitivos/terapia , Comorbidade , Infecções por Coronavirus/psicologia , Interações Medicamentosas , França/epidemiologia , Unidades Hospitalares/organização & administração , Hospitais Psiquiátricos/organização & administração , Humanos , Controle de Infecções/métodos , Transtornos Mentais/epidemiologia , Transtornos Mentais/etiologia , Serviços de Saúde Mental/provisão & distribuição , Equipe de Assistência ao Paciente , Cooperação do Paciente , Pneumonia Viral/psicologia , Prisioneiros/psicologia , SARS-CoV-2 , Transtornos de Estresse Pós-Traumáticos/etiologia , Transtornos de Estresse Pós-Traumáticos/terapia , Estresse Psicológico/etiologia , Estresse Psicológico/terapia , Transtornos Relacionados ao Uso de Substâncias/epidemiologia , Transtornos Relacionados ao Uso de Substâncias/terapia , Populações Vulneráveis , Prevenção do SuicídioRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the 11 million people currently incarcerated worldwide is the subject of many concerns. Prisons and jails are filled with people suffering from many preexisting medical conditions increasing the risk of complications. Detainees' access to medical services is already limited and overcrowding poses a threat of massive contagion. Beyond the health impact of the crisis, the tightening of prison conditions worries. On March 16, 2020, in France, the lockdown measures have been accompanied by specific provisions for prisons: all facilities have suspended visitations, group activities and external interventions. Over 10,000 prisoners have been released to reduce the prison population and the risk of virus propagation. These adjustments had major consequences on the healthcare system in French prisons. The objectives of this article are to describe the reorganization of the three levels of psychiatric care for inmates in France in the context of Covid-19 pandemic and to have a look at the impact of lockdown measures and early releases on mental health of prisoners. METHODS: This work is based on a survey conducted in April 2020 in France among psychiatric healthcare providers working in 42 ambulatory units for inmates and in the 9 full-time inpatient psychiatric wards exclusively for inmates called "UHSAs" (which stands for "unités hospitalières spécialement aménagées", and can be translated as "specially equipped hospital units"). A review of the international literature on mental healthcare system for inmates during the Covid-19 epidemic has also been performed. RESULTS: The Covid-19 epidemic has been rather contained during the period of confinement in French prisons but the impact of confinement measures on the prison population is significant. The three levels of psychiatric care for inmates have implemented specific measures to ensure continuity of care, to support detainees during Coronavirus lockdown and to prevent an infection's spread. Among the most important are: limitation of medical consultations to serious and urgent cases, creation of "Covid units", cancellation of voluntary psychiatric hospitalizations, reinforcement of preventive hygiene measures and reshuffling of medical staff. Prolonged confinement has consequences on mental health of detainees. Currently, mental health workers are facing multiple clinical situations such as forced drug and substance withdrawal (linked to difficulties in supplying psychoactive substances), symptoms of anxiety (due to concerns for their own and their relatives' well-being) and decompensation among patients with severe psychiatric conditions. Early releases from prison may also raise some issues. People recently released from prison are identified as at high risk of death by suicide and drug overdose. The lack of time to provide the necessary link between health services within prisons and health structures outside could have serious consequences, emphasizing the well-known "revolving prison doors" effect. DISCUSSION: The current lockdown measures applied in French jails and prisons point out the disparities between psychiatric care for inmates and psychiatric care for general population. Giving the high vulnerability of prison population, public health authorities should pay more attention to health care in prisons.
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Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus , Serviços de Saúde Mental/organização & administração , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral , Prisioneiros/psicologia , Prisões , Adulto , Assistência Ambulatorial/organização & administração , Assistência Ambulatorial/estatística & dados numéricos , COVID-19 , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Atenção à Saúde , Feminino , França/epidemiologia , Pesquisas sobre Atenção à Saúde , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde , Unidades Hospitalares/organização & administração , Humanos , Controle de Infecções/métodos , Masculino , Transtornos Mentais/epidemiologia , Transtornos Mentais/terapia , Serviços de Saúde Mental/estatística & dados numéricos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Isolamento de Pacientes , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Prisioneiros/estatística & dados numéricos , Unidade Hospitalar de Psiquiatria/organização & administração , Quarentena , SARS-CoV-2RESUMO
The development of the coronavirus epidemic is disrupting the organization of medical units and increasing the burden of care for nursing staff. Care facilities for the elderly are particularly exposed. Staff express legitimate fears about this, especially since they are particularly at risk of contracting the virus. Their elderly residents develop severe forms of the disease. To the anxiety generated by the risk of being contaminated, is added the one linked to the physical distancing of visitors made necessary to protect them.
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Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa/prevenção & controle , Psiquiatria Geriátrica , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Distanciamento Físico , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Idoso , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/psicologia , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Controle de Infecções/métodos , Recursos Humanos de Enfermagem , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/psicologiaRESUMO
The psychopathological effects of the spread of the SARS-Cov-2 and the COVID-19 pandemic are mainly related to the preventive measures imposing a lockdown on the general population: anxiety disorders, sleep disorders, depression, addictions, post-traumatic stress disorder, symptoms of psychosis, etc. More specific categories of the population have been particularly exposed to the harmful psychological impact of this epidemic: caregivers, patients receiving mental health care, patients hospitalised for COVID-19 and their families. These psychopathological effects can be observed in France, and also abroad, notably in Spain.
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COVID-19/psicologia , Transtornos Mentais/epidemiologia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , França/epidemiologia , HumanosRESUMO
Spain is one of the European countries most affected by COVID-19. The pandemic has had significant psychological consequences in the general population. Nurses involved in the management of this sudden and major health crisis were particularly impacted on a psychological level. In this article, a global overview is presented including negative and positive factors of the nurses' experiences in the two main cities of Spain affected by the virus: Madrid and Barcelona.
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Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral , COVID-19 , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2 , Espanha/epidemiologiaRESUMO
At the heart of the epidemic wave of spring 2020, the intensive care units faced the surge of patients with severe forms of the disease. To meet the scale of the needs, the care teams were reorganised, reinforced and adapted, as demonstrated by a hospital team specialising in neurology which, beyond the ethical issues, shortages and fears, proceeded to the "covidisation" of its resuscitation and the total reorganisation of the other units, in order to expertly organise care adapted to the needs of the patients. From a distance, and while the epidemic is still active, many questions remain.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Cuidados Críticos , Humanos , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , Enfermeiras e Enfermeiros , Equipe de Assistência ao PacienteRESUMO
Having undergone major upheavals in their operation and organisation, hospital services have had to show great adaptability in order to adjust the range of care on offer to the reality of new needs. Dialogue and consultation have made it possible to decide in the best interests of patients, particularly when it has been necessary to postpone treatment for scheduled surgery. The accompaniment of the teams, the support of local managers and psychologists helped the caregivers to face new and even worrying situations.
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COVID-19 , Cuidadores , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2RESUMO
Covid-19: psychological support programmes. The spread of Covid-19 in France, the confinement of the population and the changes to our way of life as a result of the health crisis have caused psychological distress to many people of all ages and conditions. In response to these problems, numerous remote psychological support programmes have been set up through teleconsultations. PsyCovid-19, created at Cadillac psychiatric hospital, is one such example.
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Infecções por Coronavirus/psicologia , Pneumonia Viral/psicologia , Angústia Psicológica , Sistemas de Apoio Psicossocial , Telemedicina , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , França/epidemiologia , Humanos , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2RESUMO
A real organisational challenge for the teams working alongside people being treated for cancer, the continuity of treatment and care has mobilised all those involved in care since the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic. To ensure the safety of these patients, who are more vulnerable due to their illness, and to ensure that they do not lose any chances against their cancer, the care providers of the Lyon Regional Cancer Centre have innovated and adapted their practices, both in the city and in the hospital.
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COVID-19 , Neoplasias , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Humanos , Neoplasias/terapia , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2RESUMO
Measles is a disease with almost a hundred year history of existing registration in Bulgaria and has been subject to mass immunization since 1969. In 2017, after a three-year period with a low number of measles cases registered, an epidemic upsurge has been recorded affecting 3 of the total 28 regions in the country. The purpose of this study was to analyze the changes of measles morbidity in Bulgaria over the period of 1921-2017 and focus on the epidemiological characteristics of the last outbreak in the region of Plovdiv in 2017. For the whole period (1921-2017) the average measles morbidity amounts to 157.69%ооо, decreasing from 525.02%ооо in 1921 to 2.32%ооо in 2017, with 99.5% rate of reduction. In the period prior to vaccination the average morbidity was 247.14%ооо while in the vaccination period it was 70.08%ооо. The ARIMA model could be used as a short-term forecast to predict the morbidity rate. Against the background of the downward tendency in morbidity this study reports a small measles outbreak in Plovdiv, involving 141 cases, after three years of no local virus transmission in the country. An unvaccinated child who returned from abroad probably imported the disease. The measles cases were mainly Roma children and a large number of them were infants. The low intensity and prolong course of the outbreak was indicative of relatively high vaccination coverage of the population. To achieve measles elimination goals, efforts must be made to strengthen surveillance and increase the vaccination coverage, targeting children and especially Roma children.
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Erradicação de Doenças , Sarampo/prevenção & controle , Objetivos Organizacionais , Vigilância da População/métodos , Bulgária/epidemiologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Erradicação de Doenças/métodos , Erradicação de Doenças/organização & administração , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Epidemias , Feminino , Objetivos , Humanos , Lactente , Masculino , Vacinação em Massa , Sarampo/epidemiologia , Motivação , Avaliação de Programas e Projetos de Saúde , Vacinação/métodos , Vacinação/estatística & dados numéricosRESUMO
Following Canada's largest polio epidemic in 1953, Station 67 at the University of Alberta Hospital (UAH) in Edmonton became home to patients who contracted the virus. As young as nine years old, some of these patients lived at the UAH for more than three decades. Akin to wartime services, the epidemic banded together families, patients, doctors, nurses, community members, and later respiratory, physical, and occupational therapists. The nature of the disease, the government response, and the social and economic climate dramatically affected the lived experiences of patients in Alberta's fight against polio. Drawing on archival research and oral interviews, this article argues that it was the agency and resilience of patients, the contributions of healthcare providers to rapid developments in acute and convalescent care, and the dedication of families that were primarily responsible for the recovery and reintegration of polio patients back into the community.
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Integração Comunitária/história , Hospitais de Convalescentes/história , Poliomielite/história , Alberta , História do Século XX , Humanos , Poliomielite/reabilitação , Poliomielite/terapiaRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To assess the performance of the SD Bioline Cholera Ag O1/O139 rapid diagnostic test (RDT) compared to a reference standard combining culture and PCR for the diagnosis of cholera cases during an outbreak. METHODS: RDT and bacterial culture were performed on site using fresh stools collected from cholera suspected cases, and from stools enriched in alkaline peptone water. Dried stool samples on filter paper were tested for V. cholerae by PCR in Lusaka (as part of a laboratory technology transfer project) and at a reference laboratory in Paris, France. A sample was considered positive for cholera by the reference standard if any of the culture or PCR tests was positive for V. cholerae O1 or O139. RESULTS: Among the 170 samples tested with SD Bioline and compared to the reference standard, the RDT showed a sensitivity of 90.9% (95% CI: 81.3-96.6) and specificity of 95.2% (95% CI: 89.1-98.4). After enrichment, the sensitivity was 95.5% (95% CI: 87.3-99.1) and specificity 100% (95% CI: 96.5-100). CONCLUSION: The observed sensitivity and specificity were within recommendations set by the Global Task Force for Cholera Control on the use of cholera RDT (sensitivity = 90%; specificity = 85%). Although the sample size was small, our findings suggest that the SD Bioline RDT could be used in the field to rapidly alert public health officials to the likely presence of cholera cases when an outbreak is suspected.
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Cólera/diagnóstico , Testes Diagnósticos de Rotina/métodos , Fezes/microbiologia , Vibrio cholerae/isolamento & purificação , Humanos , Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase , Kit de Reagentes para Diagnóstico , ZâmbiaRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: To analyze the relationship between the occurrence of dengue and ovitrap positivity and dengue egg density in two Amazonas municipalities (Brazil) in 2016. METHODS: We performed a case-control study using secondary data from the dengue fever surveillance system. Ovitraps distributed regularly in the urban area of two cities were used to monitor the presence of the vector. The relationship between egg positivity, egg density and the location of dengue cases was evaluated using two approaches as follows: (i) based on the result of the nearest neighbour ovitrap and (ii) based on the results of the set of ovitraps within the influence area of 300 m from the location of each case and control. RESULTS: During the study period, 229 confirmed cases of dengue fever were reported in Tabatinga and 89 cases in Itacoatiara. In this study, we found that the positivity of ovitraps was related to the occurrence of dengue in Tabatinga and Itacoatiara. An association between egg density of Ae. aegypti and dengue occurrence was also observed in Itacoatiara. The temporal lags for ovitrap positivity measurements were predominantly 15 or 30 days. A dengue association for egg density for a 15-day time lag was detected for one of the case-control approaches. CONCLUSIONS: The location of dengue cases is related to ovitrap egg positivity, while a less evident possible association may exist for egg density. This indicates that these traps could be used to improve vector control actions.
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Aedes/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Vírus da Dengue/isolamento & purificação , Dengue/epidemiologia , Mosquitos Vetores/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Óvulo/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Animais , Brasil/epidemiologia , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Humanos , Vigilância da PopulaçãoRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: The annual incidence of dengue has been increasing over the last few years in Sri Lanka with seasonal epidemics. Biological control of the vector has not been part of the integrated vector control implemented by the public health authorities of Sri Lanka so far. This pilot study assessed the effectiveness of using Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis (Bti) spray to control the Aedes mosquito vector population density. METHODS: Prospective controlled effectiveness study in three administrative divisions of Colombo. Study areas were selected from urban, semiurban and rural administrative divisions within the district, and they were compared with two matching controls from the same division. Test areas received three cycles of Bti spraying 1 month apart. Control areas were not sprayed with Bti. Ovitrap and larval indices were calculated at baseline and 2 weeks after each spray cycle. RESULTS: There was a significant improvement in the adult vector population (ovitrap index) in the test areas after three spray cycles, but this effect had disappeared after 8 weeks (no residual effect). There was no consistent positive impact on larval indices (premise, container and Breteau indices) after each spray cycle. CONCLUSION: Bti might have a moderate impact on adult vector populations mediated via transient reductions in larval populations. However, this effect is not sustained probably due to rapid re-infestation. Bti spray, if implemented, can only play a supplementary role to other vector control methods.
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Aedes , Bacillus thuringiensis/fisiologia , Dengue/prevenção & controle , Controle de Mosquitos/métodos , Controle Biológico de Vetores/métodos , Animais , Bioensaio , Humanos , Insetos Vetores , Estudos Prospectivos , Sri LankaRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: In 2015, New Delhi witnessed a massive outbreak of Dengue virus (DENV) resulting in high morbidity and mortality. We report the molecular characterisation of the dominant circulating DENV strain to understand its evolution and dispersal. MATERIALS AND METHODS: DENV infections were diagnosed by detection of IgM/NS1 antigen, and serotyping was performed by C-PrM PCR. Envelope gene was amplified, and variation(s) in envelope gene were analysed. Phylogenetic tree construction, time-based phylogeny and origin of DENV were analysed. Site-specific selection pressure of envelope gene variants was analysed. RESULTS: Confirmed DENV infection was observed in 11.34% (32 of 282) cases, while PCR positivity for C-PrM region was observed in 54.16% (13 of 24) of NS1 antigen-positive cases. All samples belonged to serotype 2 and cosmopolitan genotype. Phylogenetic analysis using envelope gene revealed segregation of cosmopolitan genotype strains into specific lineages. The Indian strains clustered separately forming a distinct monophyletic lineage (lineage III) with a signature amino acid substitution viz., I162V and R288K. Selection pressure analysis revealed that 215D, 288R and 304K were positively selected sites. The rate of nucleotide substitution was 6.93 × 10-4 substitutions site-1 year-1 with time to most common ancestor was around 10 years with JX475906 (Hyderabad strain) and JN030345 (Singapore strain) as its most probable ancestor. CONCLUSION: We observed evolution of a distinct lineage of DENV-2 strains on the Indian subcontinent with possible changes in endemic circulating dengue strains that might give rise to more pathogenic strains.
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Linhagem da Célula/genética , Vírus da Dengue/genética , Dengue/genética , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Dengue/epidemiologia , Humanos , Índia/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Sorogrupo , SorotipagemRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: Although hidden Markov model (HMM) is known as a powerful tool for the detection of epidemics based on the historical data, the frequent use of such a model poses some limitation especially when decision-making is required for new observations. This study was aimed to address a warning threshold for monitoring the weekly incidences of tuberculosis as an alternative to HMM. METHODS: We extracted the weekly counts of newly diagnosed patients with sputum smear-positive pulmonary TB from 2005 to 2011 nationwide. To detect unexpected incidences of the disease, two approaches: Serfling and HMM, were applied in presence/absence of linear, seasonal and autoregressive components. Models were subsequently evaluated in terms of goodness of fit, and their results were compared in detection of the disease phases. Then, multiple hypothetical thresholds were constructed based on the estimate of models and the optimal one was revealed through ROC curve analysis. RESULTS: Findings from both adjusted R-square (R~2) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) presented a higher goodness of fit for periodic autoregressive HMM (BIC = -1323.6; R~2=0.74) than other models. According to ROC analysis, better values for both Youden's index and area under curve (0. 96 and 0. 98 respectively) were obtained by the threshold based on the estimate of periodic autoregressive model. CONCLUSIONS: As the optimal threshold presented in this study is simple in concept and has no limitation in practice, especially for monitoring new observations, we would recommend such a threshold to be used for monitoring of TB incidence data in the surveillance system.
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Epidemias , Vigilância da População/métodos , Tuberculose Pulmonar/epidemiologia , Algoritmos , Área Sob a Curva , Teorema de Bayes , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Humanos , Incidência , Cadeias de Markov , Modelos Biológicos , Modelos Estatísticos , Curva ROCRESUMO
Charles-de-Gaulle airport in Roissy, a 3 400 hectare citadel, contains a multitude of airlines, service companies, businesses, retailers and public services, including firefighters, police officers, customs officers, ministers and medical teams. This article presents its missions, notably with regard to health services.