Plasma MERTK is a promising biomarker for the diagnosis and prognosis of HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) has a high short-term mortality. This study aimed to determine the diagnostic and prognostic role of MER tyrosine kinase (MERTK) in HBV-ACLF patients. METHODS: Transcriptomics analysis evaluated MERTK expression and function during disease progression. The diagnostic and prognostic significance of MERTK for HBV-ACLF patients were verified by ELISA, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis, and immunohistochemistry (IHC) of liver tissues. RESULTS: MERTK mRNA was highly expressed in the HBV-ACLF compared to the liver cirrhosis (LC), chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and normal controls (NC) groups. Elevated MERTK mRNA predicted poor prognosis for HBV-ACLF at 28/90 days (AUROCs=0.814/0.731). Functional analysis showed MERTK was significantly associated with TLR and inflammatory signaling, and several key biological processes. External validation with 285 plasma subjects confirmed the high diagnostic accuracy of plasma MERTK for HBV-ACLF (AUROC=0.859) and potential prognostic value for 28/90-day mortality rates (AUROC=0.673 and 0.644, respectively). Risk stratification analysis indicated higher mortality risk for patients with plasma MERTK level above the cut-off value. Moreover, IHC staining showed increasing MERTK expression from NC, CHB and LC to HBV-ACLF patients. CONCLUSIONS: MERTK shows promise as a candidate biomarker for early diagnosis and prognosis of HBV-ACLF.

From prognostication to therapeutics: Four key questions to accelerate the development of therapeutics for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has come a long way as a clinical concept within the hepatology and liver transplant communities. Though the term was proposed in 1995, the first recognition of the entity along with a consensus definition emerged in 2009. Subsequently, the entity has sparked great interest, inspired several consensus conferences, and inspired national societies to form professional ACLF affinity groups (eg, special interest group). Multicenter consortia have been established all over the world to study this condition, including the North American Consortium for the Study of End-Stage Liver Disease, Chronic Liver Failure consortium, Asian Pacific Association for the Study of Liver Diseases ACLF Research Consortium, Chronic Liver disease Evolution And Registry for Events and Decompensation, and the LiverHope Consortium. Collectively, these consortia have enrolled tens of thousands of patients with or at risk for ACLF across dozens of countries and characterized in detail the predictors, pathogenesis, and progression of patients with ACLF. Perhaps most importantly, they have produced essential data characterizing the excess morbidity and mortality that patients with ACLF face, making a compelling case for the urgent need for therapeutic strategies for this condition.

Geographic disparities in access to liver transplant for advanced cirrhosis: Time to ring the alarm!

Decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular cancer are major risk factors for mortality worldwide. Liver transplantation (LT), both live-donor LT or deceased-donor LT, are lifesaving, but there are several barriers toward equitable access. These barriers are exacerbated in the setting of critical illness or acute-on-chronic liver failure. Rates of LT vary widely worldwide but are lowest in lower-income countries owing to lack of resources, infrastructure, late disease presentation, and limited donor awareness. A recent experience by the Chronic Liver Disease Evolution and Registry for Events and Decompensation consortium defined these barriers toward LT as critical in determining overall survival in hospitalized cirrhosis patients. A major focus should be on appropriate, affordable, and early cirrhosis and hepatocellular cancer care to prevent the need for LT. Live-donor LT is predominant across Asian countries, whereas deceased-donor LT is more common in Western countries; both approaches have unique challenges that add to the access disparities. There are many challenges toward equitable access but uniform definitions of acute-on-chronic liver failure, improving transplant expertise, enhancing availability of resources and encouraging knowledge between centers, and preventing disease progression are critical to reduce LT disparities.

Benefits of liver transplant in critically ill patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure: Implementation of an urgent living-donor program.

We evaluated the liver transplantation (LT) criteria in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), incorporating an urgent living-donor LT (LDLT) program. Critically ill patients with a Chronic Liver Failure Consortium (CLIF-C) ACLF score (CLIF-C_ACLF_score) ≥65, previously considered unsuitable for LT, were included to explore the excess mortality threshold of the CLIF-C_ACLF_score (CLIF-C_ACLF_score_threshold). We followed 854 consecutive patients with ACLF (276 ACLF grade 2 and 215 ACLF grade 3) over 10 years among 4432 LT recipients between 2008 and 2019. For advanced ACLF patients without immediate deceased-donor (DD) allocation, an urgent LDLT program was expedited. The CLIF-C_ACLF_score_threshold was determined by the metrics of transplant survival benefit: >60% 1-year and >50% 5-year survival rate. In predicting post-LT mortality, the CLIF-C_ACLF_score outperformed the (model for end-stage liver disease-sodium) MELD-Na and (model for end-stage liver disease) MELD-3.0 scores but was comparable to the Sundaram ACLF-LT-mortality score. A CLIF-C_ACLF_score ≥65 (n = 54) demonstrated posttransplant survival benefits, with 1-year and 5-year survival rates of 66.7% and 50.4% (P < .001), respectively. Novel CLIF-C_ACLF_score_threshold for 1-year and 5-year mortalities was 70 and 69, respectively. A CLIF-C_ACLF_score-based nomogram for predicting survival probabilities, integrating cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and donor type (LDLT vs DDLT), was generated. This study suggests reconsidering the criteria for unsuitable LT with a CLIF-C_ACLF_score ≥65. Implementing a timely salvage LT strategy, and incorporating urgent LDLT, can enhance survival rates.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure - steps towards harmonization of the definition!

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), usually precipitated by alcohol misuse or viral reactivation, is characterised by rapid onset and usually reversible liver failure. Various definitions of ACLF have been proposed and widely used across the globe, including those by APASL, COSSH, EASL-CLIF, Japanese experts, and NACSELD. Although all the definitions have several similarities and connote high short-term mortality, a clear and standardised definition is still lacking, hampering research in this key area. In this review, we discuss the similarities and differences among various definitions and propose steps to harmonise EASL-CLIF, APASL, NACSELD, Japanese, and Chinese definitions of ACLF.

Definitions, Etiologies, and Outcomes of Acute on Chronic Liver Failure: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a major public health concern. We aimed to assess the definitions, etiologic spectrum, organ failure (OF), and outcomes of ACLF globally. METHODS: Three databases were searched for studies on ACLF from 1990 until September 2022. Information regarding definitions, acute precipitants, underlying chronic liver disease (CLD), OF, and mortality were extracted. Meta-analyses were performed for pooled prevalence rates (95% confidence interval [CI]) using random-effects model for each definition of ACLF. RESULTS: Of the 11,451 studies identified, 114 articles (142 cohorts encompassing 210,239 patients) met the eligibility criteria. Most studies (53.2%) used the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) definition, followed by Asia-Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) (33.3%). Systemic infection was the major acute precipitant, and alcohol use was the major cause of CLD in EASL-defined studies, whereas alcohol was both the major acute precipitant and cause of CLD in APASL-defined studies. Liver failure was the major OF in APASL-based studies, whereas renal failure was predominant in EASL-based studies. Thirty-day mortality varied across definitions: APASL: 38.9%, 95% CI, 31.2%-46.9%; EASL: 47.9%, 95% CI, 42.2%-53.5%; and NACSELD: 52.2%, 95% CI, 51.9%-52.5%. Diagnostic overlap between definitions ranged from 7.7% to 80.2%. Meta-regression suggested that the World Health Organization region influenced 30-day mortality in studies using EASL definition. CONCLUSIONS: Heterogeneity in the definition of ACLF proposed by different expert societies and regional preferences in its use result in differences in clinical phenotype and outcomes. A uniform definition would enhance the comparability and interpretation of global data.

A robust clustering strategy for stratification unveils unique patient subgroups in acutely decompensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Patient heterogeneity poses significant challenges for managing individuals and designing clinical trials, especially in complex diseases. Existing classifications rely on outcome-predicting scores, potentially overlooking crucial elements contributing to heterogeneity without necessarily impacting prognosis. METHODS: To address patient heterogeneity, we developed ClustALL, a computational pipeline that simultaneously faces diverse clinical data challenges like mixed types, missing values, and collinearity. ClustALL enables the unsupervised identification of patient stratifications while filtering for stratifications that are robust against minor variations in the population (population-based) and against limited adjustments in the algorithm's parameters (parameter-based). RESULTS: Applied to a European cohort of patients with acutely decompensated cirrhosis (n = 766), ClustALL identified five robust stratifications, using only data at hospital admission. All stratifications included markers of impaired liver function and number of organ dysfunction or failure, and most included precipitating events. When focusing on one of these stratifications, patients were categorized into three clusters characterized by typical clinical features; notably, the 3-cluster stratification showed a prognostic value. Re-assessment of patient stratification during follow-up delineated patients' outcomes, with further improvement of the prognostic value of the stratification. We validated these findings in an independent prospective multicentre cohort of patients from Latin America (n = 580). CONCLUSIONS: By applying ClustALL to patients with acutely decompensated cirrhosis, we identified three patient clusters. Following these clusters over time offers insights that could guide future clinical trial design. ClustALL is a novel and robust stratification method capable of addressing the multiple challenges of patient stratification in most complex diseases.

High histamine levels are associated with acute-on-chronic liver failure and liver-related death in patients with advanced chronic liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The role of histamine in advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) is poorly understood. We investigated plasma histamine levels across ACLD stages and their prognostic value. METHODS: We included patients with evidence of ACLD, defined by portal hypertension (hepatic venous pressure gradient [HVPG] ≥6 mmHg) and/or a liver stiffness measurement by transient elastography ≥10 kPa, who underwent HVPG measurement between 2017 and 2020. Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and/or liver-related death were defined as composite endpoint. RESULTS: Of 251 patients, 82.5% had clinically significant portal hypertension (median HVPG: 17 mmHg [interquartile range (IQR) 12-21]) and 135 patients (53.8%) were decompensated at baseline. Median plasma histamine was 8.5 nmol/L (IQR: 6.4-11.5), 37.1% of patients showed elevated values (>9.9 nmol/L). Histamine levels did not differ significantly across Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) stages nor strata of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) or HVPG. Histamine levels correlated with markers of circulatory dysfunction (i.e. sodium, renin and aldosterone). During a median follow-up of 29.2 months, 68 patients developed ACLF or liver-related death. In univariate as well as in multivariate analysis (adjusting for age, sex, HVPG as well as either MELD, clinical stage, and serum albumin or CTP and serum sodium), elevated histamine levels remained associated with the composite endpoint. CTP-based multivariate model adjusted sub-distribution hazard ratio (asHR): 1.010 (95% CI: 1.004-1.021), p < .001; MELD-based multivariate model asHR: 1.030 (95% CI: 1.017-1.040), p < .001. CONCLUSION: High levels of histamine were linked to circulatory dysfunction in ACLD patients and independently associated with increased risks of ACLF or liver-related death. Further mechanistic studies on the link between histamine signalling and development of hyperdynamic circulation and ACLF are warranted.

Acute and non-acute decompensation of liver cirrhosis (47/130).

In the traditional view, the occurrence of cirrhosis-related complications, such as hepatic encephalopathy, formation of ascites or variceal haemorrhage, marks the transition to the decompensated stage of cirrhosis. Although the dichotomous stratification into a compensated and decompensated state reflects a prognostic water-shed moment and remains to hold its prognostic validity, it represents an oversimplification of clinical realities. A broadening understanding of pathophysiological mechanisms underpinning decompensation have led to the identification of distinct prognostic subgroups, associated with different clinical courses following decompensation. Data provided by the PREDICT study uncovered three distinct sub-phenotypes of acute decompensation (AD). Moreover, acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has been established as a distinct clinical entity for many years, which is associated with a high short-term mortality. Recently, non-acute decompensation (NAD) has been proposed as a distinct pathway of decompensation, complementing current concepts of the spectrum of decompensation. In contrast to AD, NAD is characterized by a slow and progressive development of complications, which are often presented at first decompensation and/or in patients in an earlier stage of chronic liver disease. Successful treatment of AD or NAD may lead to a clinical stabilization or even the concept of recompensation. This review aims to provide an overview on current concepts of decompensation and to delineate recent advances in our clinical and pathophysiological understanding.

Alpha-fetoprotein and APRI as predictive markers for patients with Type C hepatitis B-related acute-on-chronic liver failure: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Type C hepatitis B-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF), which is based on decompensated cirrhosis, has different laboratory tests, precipitating events, organ failure and clinical outcomes. The predictors of prognosis for type C HBV-ACLF patients are different from those for other subgroups. This study aimed to construct a novel, short-term prognostic score that applied serological indicators of hepatic regeneration and noninvasive assessment of liver fibrosis to predict outcomes in patients with type C HBV-ACLF. METHOD: Patients with type C HBV-ACLF were observed for 90 days. Demographic information, clinical examination, and laboratory test results of the enrolled patients were collected. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were performed to identify independent prognostic factors and develop a novel prognostic scoring system. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to analyse the performance of the model. RESULTS: A total of 224 patients with type C HBV-ACLF were finally included. The overall survival rate within 90 days was 47.77%. Age, total bilirubin (TBil), international normalized ratio (INR), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), white blood cell (WBC), serum sodium (Na), and aspartate aminotransferase/platelet ratio index (APRI) were found to be independent prognostic factors. According to the results of the logistic regression analysis, a new prognostic model (named the A3Twin score) was established. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was 0.851 [95% CI (0.801-0.901)], the sensitivity was 78.8%, and the specificity was 71.8%, which were significantly higher than those of the MELD, IMELD, MELD-Na, TACIA and COSSH-ACLF II scores (all P < 0.001). Patients with lower A3Twin scores (<-9.07) survived longer. CONCLUSIONS: A new prognostic scoring system for patients with type C HBV-ACLF based on seven routine indices was established in our study and can accurately predict short-term mortality and might be used to guide clinical management.

Early Versus Standard Initiation of Terlipressin for Acute Kidney Injury in ACLF: A Randomized Controlled Trial (eTerli Study).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Terlipressin infusion is effective in hepatorenal syndrome (HRS-AKI). However, its efficacy for HRS-AKI resolution in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients has been suboptimal. Progression of AKI is rapid in ACLF. We investigated whether early initiation of terlipressin(eTerli) can improve response rates. METHODS: Consecutive ACLF patients with stage II/III AKI despite albumin resuscitation (40 g) were randomized to receive terlipressin at 2 mg/24 h plus albumin at 12 h (ET, n = 35) or at 48 h as standard therapy (ST, n = 35). (June 22, 2020 to June 10, 2022). The primary end-point was AKI reversal by day7. RESULTS: Baseline parameters including AKI stage and ACLF-AARC scores in two arms were comparable. Full AKI response at day 7 was higher in ET [24/35 (68.6%)] than ST arm [11/35 (31.4%; P 0.03]. Day3 AKI response was also higher in ET arm [11/35 (31.4%) vs. 4/35 (11.4%), P 0.04]. Using ST compared to ET [HR 4.3; P 0.026] and day 3 serum creatinine > 1.6 mg/dl [HR 9.1; AUROC-0.866; P < 0.001] predicted HRS-AKI non-response at day 7. ET patients showed greater improvement in ACLF grade, mean arterial pressure, and urine output at day 3, and required lower albumin within 7 days than ET arm (149.1 ± 41.8 g vs. 177.5 ± 40.3 g, P 0.006) and had lower 28-day mortality: 40% vs. 65.7%, P 0.031]. Early use of terlipressin than ST [HR 2.079; P 0.038], baseline HE [HR 2.929; P 0.018], and AKI persistence at day 3 [HR 1.369; P 0.011] predicted 28-day mortality. Fifteen (21.4%) patients had treatment related adverse effects, none was life threatening. CONCLUSION: In ACLF patients, early initiation of terlipressin for AKI persisting after 12 h of volume expansion with albumin helps in reduced short-term mortality and early AKI reversal with regression of ACLF stage. These results indicate need for change in current practice for terlipressin usage in HRS-AKI.

Frailty and sarcopenia in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure: Assessment and risk in the liver transplant setting.

Frailty and sarcopenia are well-recognized factors related to worse outcomes in patients with cirrhosis, including liver transplant (LT) candidates. Implications of pre-LT functional and muscle deterioration also affect post-LT outcomes. Patients with cirrhosis and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) have a lower survival rate, both before and after LT. There is a need to better identify those patients with ACLF who would benefit from LT. This review aims to present the available data about frailty and sarcopenia in patients with ACLF in the LT setting. An exhaustive review of the published literature was conducted. Data regarding frailty and sarcopenia in LT candidates with ACLF are scarce and heterogeneous. Studies evaluating frailty and sarcopenia in critically ill patients outside the liver literature are also presented in this review to enrich the knowledge of this field in expansion. Frailty and sarcopenia seem to contribute to worse outcomes in LT candidates with ACLF, both before and after LT. Sarcopenia evaluation may be the most prudent approach for those very sick patients. Skeletal muscle index assessed by computed tomography is recommended to evaluate sarcopenia. The role of muscle ultrasound and bioelectrical impedance analysis is to be determined. Frailty and sarcopenia are crucial factors to consider on a case-by-case basis in LT candidates with ACLF to improve patient outcomes.

Mesenchymal stem cell-regulated miRNA-mRNA landscape in acute-on-chronic liver failure.

BACKGROUND: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a major challenge in the field of hepatology. While mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) therapy can improve the prognosis of patients with ACLF, the molecular mechanisms through which MSCs attenuate ACLF remain poorly understood. We performed global miRNA and mRNA expression profiling via next-generation sequencing of liver tissues from MSC-treated ACLF mice to identify important signaling pathways and major factors implicated in ACLF alleviation by MSCs. METHODS: Carbon tetrachloride-induced ACLF mice were treated with saline or mouse bone marrow-derived MSCs. Mouse livers were subjected to miRNA and mRNA sequencing. Related signal transduction pathways were obtained through Gene Set Enrichment Analysis. Functional enrichment, protein-protein interaction, and immune infiltration analyses were performed for the differentially expressed miRNA target genes (DETs). Hub miRNA and mRNA associated with liver injury were analyzed using LASSO regression. The expression levels of hub genes were subjected to Pearson's correlation analysis and verified using RT-qPCR. The biological functions of hub genes were verified in vitro. RESULTS: The tricarboxylic acid cycle and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor pathways were activated in the MSC-treated groups. The proportions of liver-infiltrating NK resting cells, M2 macrophages, follicular helper T cells, and other immune cells were altered after MSC treatment. The expression levels of six miRNAs and 10 transcripts correlated with the degree of liver injury. miR-27a-5p was downregulated in the mouse liver after MSC treatment, while its target gene E2f2 was upregulated. miR-27a-5p inhibited E2F2 expression, suppressed G1/S phase transition and proliferation of hepatocytes, in addition to promoting their apoptosis. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first comprehensive analysis of miRNA and mRNA expression in the liver tissue of ACLF mice after MSC treatment. The results revealed global changes in hepatic pathways and immune subpopulations. The miR-27a-5p/E2F2 axis emerged as a central regulator of the MSC-induced attenuation of ACLF. The current findings improve our understanding of the molecular mechanisms through which MSCs alleviate ACLF.

Clinical outcomes and predictors in patients with acute on chronic liver failure in Southern Taiwan.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The study is to analyze the clinical characteristics and identify prognostic factors as well as evaluate predictive models in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) from Southern Taiwan. METHODS: The cohort study was conducted using the Chang Gung Research Database. We included patients with ACLF based on the definition provided by the Asian-Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver ACLF Research Consortium (AARC). RESULTS: A total of 231 patients diagnosed with ACLF were included in this study, out of which 26 patients underwent liver transplantation (LT). The primary cause of ACLF was acute exacerbation of hepatitis B virus (HBV) in 68.4% of cases and followed by severe alcoholic hepatitis (20.8%). Among LT-free patients, the 28-day mortality rate was observed to be 31%. Older age, higher INR and ammonia levels, and the presence of severe hepatic encephalopathy on 3-6 days of treatment were independent predictors of 28-day mortality. The CLIF-C ACLF and COSSH-ACLF scores, evaluated on 3-6 days, demonstrated the highest predictive performance for 28-day mortality. The optimal cut-off values for the CLIF-C ACLF and COSSH-ACLF scores were determined to be 47 and 6.3, respectively. Patients with CLIF-C ACLF score >63 or COSSH-ACLF score >8.1 experienced 100% mortality by day 28. CONCLUSIONS: The CLIF-C ACLF and COSSH-ACLF scores, evaluated within one week after treatment, exhibit strong predictive capabilities for short-term mortality in ACLF patients. These models are valuable tools for guiding timely decision-making, including the consideration of liver transplantation or withdrawal from treatment.

The Role of Hypoxia-Inducible Factor 1 Alpha in Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is associated with increased mortality. Specific therapy options are limited. Hypoxia-inducible factor 1 alpha (HIF-1α) has been linked to the pathogenesis of chronic liver disease (CLD), but the role of HIF-1α in ACLF is poorly understood. In the current study, different etiologies of CLD and precipitating events triggering ACLF were used in four rodent models. HIF-1α expression and the intracellular pathway of HIF-1α induction were investigated using real-time quantitative PCR. The results were verified by Western blotting and immunohistochemistry for extrahepatic HIF-1α expression using transcriptome analysis. Exploratory immunohistochemical staining was performed to assess HIF-1α in human liver tissue. Intrahepatic HIF-1α expression was significantly increased in all animals with ACLF, regardless of the underlying etiology of CLD or the precipitating event. The induction of HIF-1α was accompanied by the increased mRNA expression of NFkB1 and STAT3 and resulted in a marked elevation of mRNA levels of its downstream genes. Extrahepatic HIF-1α expression was not elevated. In human liver tissue samples, HIF-1α expression was elevated in CLD and ACLF. Increased intrahepatic HIF-1α expression seems to play an important role in the pathogenesis of ACLF, and future studies are pending to investigate the role of therapeutic HIF inhibitors in ACLF.

Acute on Chronic Liver Failure: Lessons from a Decade of EASL-CLIF Definition and Scoring Systems.

How to cite this article: Solao V. Acute on Chronic Liver Failure: Lessons from a Decade of EASL-CLIF Definition and Scoring Systems. Indian J Crit Care Med 2024;28(2):100-102.

Predicting post-liver transplant outcomes in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure using Expert-Augmented Machine Learning.

Liver transplantation (LT) is a treatment for acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), but high post-LT mortality has been reported. Existing post-LT models in ACLF have been limited. We developed an Expert-Augmented Machine Learning (EAML) model to predict post-LT outcomes. We identified ACLF patients who underwent LT in the University of California Health Data Warehouse. We applied the RuleFit machine learning (ML) algorithm to extract rules from decision trees and create intermediate models. We asked human experts to rate the rules generated by RuleFit and incorporated these ratings to generate final EAML models. We identified 1384 ACLF patients. For death at 1 year, areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve were 0.707 (confidence interval [CI] 0.625-0.793) for EAML and 0.719 (CI 0.640-0.800) for RuleFit. For death at 90 days, areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve were 0.678 (CI 0.581-0.776) for EAML and 0.707 (CI 0.615-0.800) for RuleFit. In pairwise comparisons, both EAML and RuleFit models outperformed cross-sectional models. Significant discrepancies between experts and ML occurred in rankings of biomarkers used in clinical practice. EAML may serve as a method for ML-guided hypothesis generation in further ACLF research.

The novel SALT-M score predicts 1-year post-transplant mortality in patients with severe acute-on-chronic liver failure.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Twenty-eight-day mortality ranges from 30-90% in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure grades 2/3 (severe ACLF). Though liver transplantation (LT) has demonstrated a survival benefit, the scarcity of donor organs and uncertainty regarding post-LT mortality among patients with severe ACLF may cause hesitancy. We developed and externally validated a model to predict 1-year post-LT mortality in severe ACLF, called the Sundaram ACLF-LT-Mortality (SALT-M) score, and estimated the median length of stay (LoS) after LT (ACLF-LT-LoS). METHODS: In 15 LT centers in the US, we retrospectively identified a cohort of patients with severe ACLF transplanted between 2014-2019, followed up to Jan'2022. Candidate predictors included demographics, clinical and laboratory values, and organ failures. We selected predictors in the final model using clinical criteria and externally validated them in two French cohorts. We provided measures of overall performance, discrimination, and calibration. We used multivariable median regression to estimate LoS after adjusting for clinically relevant factors. RESULTS: We included 735 patients, of whom 521 (70.8%) had severe ACLF (120 ACLF-3, external cohort). The median age was 55 years, and 104 with severe ACLF (19.9%) died within 1-year post-LT. Our final model included age >50 years, use of 1/≥2 inotropes, presence of respiratory failure, diabetes mellitus, and BMI (continuous). The c-statistic was 0.72 (derivation) and 0.80 (validation), indicating adequate discrimination and calibration based on the observed/expected probability plots. Age, respiratory failure, BMI, and presence of infection independently predicted median LoS. CONCLUSIONS: The SALT-M score predicts mortality within 1-year after LT in patients with ACLF. The ACLF-LT-LoS score predicted median post-LT stay. Future studies using these scores could assist in determining transplant benefits. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Liver transplantation (LT) may be the only life-saving procedure available to patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), but clinically instability can augment the perceived risk of post-transplant mortality at 1 year. We developed a parsimonious score with clinically and readily available parameters to objectively assess 1-year post-LT survival and predict median length of stay after LT. We developed and externally validated a clinical model called the Sundaram ACLF-LT-Mortality score in 521 US patients with ACLF with 2 or ≥3 organ failure(s) and 120 French patients with ACLF grade 3. The c-statistic was 0.72 in the development cohort and 0.80 in the validation cohort. We also provided an estimation of the median length of stay after LT in these patients. Our models can be used in discussions on the risks/benefits of LT in patients listed with severe ACLF. Nevertheless, the score is far from perfect and other factors, such as patient's preference and center-specific factors, need to be considered when using these tools.

A randomised-controlled trial (TARGET-C) of high vs. low target mean arterial pressure in patients with cirrhosis and septic shock.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: A high mean arterial pressure (MAP) target has been associated with improved renal outcomes in patients with cirrhosis, though it has not been studied in critically ill patients with cirrhosis and septic shock (CICs). We compared the efficacy of a high (80-85 mmHg; H-MAP) vs. low (60-65; L-MAP) target MAP strategy in improving 28-day mortality in CICs. METHODS: We performed open-label 1:1 randomisation of 150 CICs (H-MAP 75; L-MAP 75). The primary endpoint was 28-day mortality and secondary endpoints included reversal of shock, acute kidney injury (AKI) at day 5, the incidence of intradialytic hypotension (IDH), and adverse events. Endothelial markers were analysed in a subset of patients. RESULTS: The baseline characteristics were comparable. On intention-to-treat analysis, 28-day mortality (65% vs. 56%; p = 0.54), reversal of shock (47% vs. 53%; p = 0.41) and AKI development (45% vs. 31%;p = 0.06) were not different between the H-MAP and L-MAP groups, respectively. A lower incidence of IDH (12% vs. 48%; p <0.001) and higher adverse events necessitating protocol discontinuation (24% vs. 11%; p = 0.031) were noted in the H-MAP group. On per-protocol analysis (L-MAP 67; H-MAP 57), a significantly higher reversal of AKI (53% vs. 31%; p = 0.02) and a lower incidence of IDH (4% vs. 53%; p <0.001) were observed in the H-MAP group. Endothelial repair markers such as ADAMTS (2.11 ± 1.13 vs. 1.15 ± 0.48; p = 0.002) and angiopoietin-2 (74.08 ± 53.00 vs. 41.80 ± 15.95; p = 0.016) were higher in the H-MAP group. CONCLUSIONS: A higher MAP strategy does not confer a survival benefit in CICs, but improves tolerance to dialysis, lactate clearance and renal recovery. Higher adverse events indicate the need for better tools to evaluate target microcirculation pressures in CICs. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Maintaining an appropriate organ perfusion pressure during sepsis is the ultimate goal of haemodynamic management. A higher mean arterial pressure (MAP) improves renal outcomes in patients with hepatorenal syndrome. Patients with cirrhosis and septic shock have severe circulatory disturbances, low MAP, and poor tissue perfusion. In these patients, targeting higher MAP vs. lower MAP does not confer any survival benefit but is associated with more adverse events. A higher target strategy was associated with better tolerance and lesser episodes of hypotension on dialysis. Patients who could achieve the higher target MAP, without the development of adverse events, had improved renal outcomes and better lactate clearance. Higher MAP was also associated with improvements in markers of endothelial function. A higher target MAP strategy, with close monitoring of adverse events, may be recommended for patients with cirrhosis and septic shock. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: NCT03145168.

Predicting the Onset of Hepatitis B Virus-Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a life-threatening syndrome with rapid progression. This study aimed to develop and validate a prognostic score to predict the onset of ACLF in hepatitis B virus (HBV) etiology. METHODS: The prospective clinical data of 1373 patients with acute deterioration of HBV-related chronic liver disease were used to identify clinical characteristics and develop a prognostic score for the onset of ACLF. RESULTS: Of the patients assessed using the Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B (COSSH)-ACLF criteria, 903 patients with non-ACLF at admission (1 received transplantation at 5 days) were stratified: 71 with progression to ACLF and 831 without progression to ACLF at 7 days. Four predictors (total bilirubin, international normalized ratio, alanine aminotransferase, and ferritin) were associated significantly with ACLF onset at 7 days. The COSSH-onset-ACLF score was constituted as follows: (0.101 × ln [alanine aminotransferase] + 0.819 × ln [total bilirubin] + 2.820 × ln [international normalized ratio] + 0.016 × ln [ferritin]). The C-indexes of the new score for 7-/14-/28-day onset (0.928/0.925/0.913) were significantly higher than those of 5 other scores (Chronic Liver Failure Consortium ACLF development score/Model for End-stage Liver Disease score/Model for End-stage Liver Disease sodium score/COSSH-ACLF score/Chronic liver failure Consortium ACLF score; all P < .001). The improvement in predictive errors, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic, probability density function evaluation, and calibration curves of the new score showed the highest predictive value for ACLF onset at 7/14/28 days. Risk stratification of the new score showed 2 strata with high and low risk (≥6.3/<6.3) of ACLF onset. The external validation group further confirmed the earlier results. CONCLUSIONS: A new prognostic score based on 4 predictors can accurately predict the 7-/14-/28-day onset of ACLF in patients with acute deterioration of HBV-related chronic liver disease and might be used to guide clinical management.