Spatial association of homicide rate with violence, sociodemographic, and public security factors: global burden of disease study 2018 for municipalities in Brazil.

OBJECTIVES: To analyse spatial-temporal changes and spatial association of homicide rates with violence, sociodemographic, public security and human rights indicators in Brazilian municipalities. STUDY DESIGN: An ecological study using homicide estimates from the Global Burden of Disease and population from the Brazilian Ministry of Health, 2000 to 2018. The explanatory variables come from the systems of mortality, notifications of violence and security, and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. METHODS: Moran indices and maps identified clusters of high and low risk for homicides in three trienniums (p < 0.05). Multivariate linear and spatial regressions estimated explanatory factors' contributions for the last triennium. RESULTS: Municipalities with high rates of homicides (>34/100,000) doubled, reaching 21.5 %. Those rates were concentrated in big cities, and increased in smaller municipalities. Increases in critical areas were found in the Northeast and North regions: more than 40 % in the states of Sergipe, Bahia, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte and Roraima. Decreases occurred in the Southeast and Midwest regions: more than 35 % in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro states. The spatial model, with an 18.9 % higher R2 (0.706), showed a positive association for records of violence, Blacks, low-level education, municipalities >50,000 inhabitants and municipalities with homicide and municipal police. CONCLUSIONS: An increase in and the interiorisation of homicide risk areas in Brazil was observed, with displacement among regions (from the Southeast to the North/Northeast). The level of violence was the main explanatory factor for homicides. Territorial space proved to be important to understand and prevent lethal crime.

Evolution of mortality rates among women of reproductive age in Brazilian municipalities: an ecological analysis using Global Burden of Disease estimates.

OBJECTIVES: Women's mortality at a reproductive age has been a global concern, and its decrease has been incorporated as a target of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The aim of this study was to describe the spatial-temporal evolution of mortality rates among women of reproductive age in Brazilian municipalities by groups of causes and socioeconomic indicators from 2000 to 2018. STUDY DESIGN: Ecological analysis. METHODS: This work was an ecological, descriptive study that analyzed estimates of mortality rates among women of reproductive age (15-49 years) by main groups of causes of death from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in three consecutive trienniums, T1 (2000-2002), T2 (2009-2011), and T3 (2016-2018). To quantify the temporal evolution in mortality rates, the present study calculated the percentage change for each triennium. The spatial analysis of mortality rates was carried out using Moran's index. The Pearson coefficient was used to analyze the correlation between the data. RESULTS: A significant decline in mortality rates was found for all groups of causes in all regions of the country. Despite the downward trend, the percentage change from 2009 to 2011 to 2016 to 2018 showed a decrease in the group of Noncommunicable Diseases (NCDs) and external causes. The decline in mortality rates of women due to external causes showed only a minimal change in the North and Northeast regions from T2 to T3, whereas a cluster of neighboring municipalities with high mortality rates persisted in the municipalities of the South region and in the state of Roraima. The ranking of the main causes of death in Brazilian municipalities showed an increase in neoplasms in detriment to cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). CONCLUSIONS: The main causes of death in women of reproductive age at a more local level could be used to recognize inequalities and to develop interventions aimed at tackling premature and preventable deaths.

[Stratification of risk areas for measles transmission: a systematic reviewEstratificación de las zonas de riesgo de transmisión del sarampión: revisión sistemática]. / Estratificação de áreas de risco de transmissão de sarampo: uma revisão sistemática.

Objective: To perform a systematic review of scientific publications addressing the use of stratification methods to define risk areas for measles transmission. Method: Articles published in English, Portuguese, and Spanish in journals indexed in the SciELO, PubMed, and LILACS databases were selected. The search terms risk assessment AND measles were used without date limits. Editorials, opinion articles, individual-level observational studies, and publications that did not focus on the application of methods to stratify measles transmission risk areas were excluded. Year of publication, authorship, country where the study was performed, objective, geographic level of analysis, method used, indicators, and limitations were recorded in a data form. Results: Thirteen articles published between 2011 and 2022 in nine countries from the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions were selected. Of these, 10 referred to the Measles Risk Assessment Tool developed by the WHO/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Only one study adapted the tool to the local context. The risk stratification indicators used in the selected studies focused on a combination of the following dimensions: population immunity, quality of surveillance systems, and epidemiologic status. The systematic output of data with adequate quality and coverage was a noteworthy aspect hindering risk stratification. Conclusion: There seems to be limited dissemination of measles risk stratification strategies, especially at local levels. The need to train human resources to process and interpret risk analyses as part of the routine of surveillance services is emphasized.

Objetivo: Realizar una revisión sistemática de las publicaciones científicas en las que se han abordado experiencias de aplicación de métodos de estratificación para definir las zonas de riesgo de transmisión del sarampión. Métodos: Se seleccionaron artículos publicados en español, inglés o portugués en revistas indizadas en las bases de datos SciELO, PubMed y LILACS. En la búsqueda se utilizaron los descriptores "risk assessment" y "measles", sin limitaciones en la fecha de publicación. Se excluyeron editoriales, artículos de opinión, estudios de observación de pacientes individuales y publicaciones que no tratasen de la aplicación de métodos de estratificación de zonas de riesgo de transmisión del sarampión. Se empleó un formulario para extraer la información sobre año de publicación, autoría, país de realización del estudio, objetivo, escala geográfica, método utilizado, indicadores y limitaciones. Resultados: Se seleccionaron 13 artículos publicados entre el 2011 y el 2022 en nueve países de las seis regiones de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS). En 10 de ellos se utilizó como referencia la herramienta de evaluación del riesgo de sarampión creada por la OMS y los Centros para el Control y la Prevención de Enfermedades de Estados Unidos. Solamente en un estudio se adaptó la herramienta al contexto local. Los indicadores utilizados para la estratificación del riesgo se basaron en una combinación de las dimensiones de inmunidad poblacional, calidad de los sistemas de vigilancia y situación epidemiológica. Entre las dificultades de la estratificación del riesgo se destaca la de generación sistemática de datos con una cobertura y calidad adecuadas. Conclusión: Las estrategias de estratificación del riesgo de transmisión del sarampión siguen sin estar, al parecer, muy extendidas, en especial a nivel local. Cabe reiterar la necesidad de fomentar la capacitación de recursos humanos para procesar e interpretar los análisis de riesgo en las operaciones habituales de los servicios de vigilancia.

[Temporal pattern, spatial distribution, and factors associated with the incidence of HIV/AIDS among young people in BrazilPatrón temporal, distribución espacial y factores asociados a la incidencia de la infección por el VIH/sida en jóvenes en Brasil]. / Padrão temporal, distribuição espacial e fatores associados a incidência de HIV/AIDS entre jovens no Brasil.

Objective: To describe temporal and spatial patterns and identify the factors associated with the incidence of HIV/AIDS among young people in Brazil. Method: Ecological study of young Brazilians aged 15-24 years with reported HIV/AIDS, from 2001 to 2021. The Joinpoint method was used for the temporal analysis. Spatial clusters were detected using Bayesian methods, spatial autocorrelation, Getis-Ord Gi*, and scan techniques. Four non-spatial and spatial regression models were used to identify factors associated with the result. All statistical analyses considered p < 0.05. Results: In Brazil, the average incidence was 12.29 per 100 000 inhabitants, with an annual increase of 7.3% in the period 2007-2014 and a subsequent 3.4% decrease in 2014-2021. A high-high pattern and hotspots were observed, mainly in municipalities in the South, Southeast, Central-West, and North regions. The primary cluster was located in 572 municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, with the highest relative risks in Manaus (Amazonas) and Rondonópolis (Mato Grosso). The illiteracy rate (ß = -0.08), GINI Index (ß = -3.74) and Family Health Strategy coverage (ß = -0.70) were negatively associated with the result. In contrast, the Firjan Municipal Development Index (ß = 2.37), Social Vulnerability Index (ß = 6.30), percentage of Bolsa Família recipients (ß = 0.04), and per capita income (ß = 0.008) showed a positive association. Conclusion: There was an upward trend in the incidence of HIV/AIDS until 2014, followed by a decline until 2021. High-rate clusters were concentrated in municipalities in the North, South, Southeast and Central-West regions in particular. Indicators of socioeconomic vulnerability had positive or negative effects on the result, depending on the territory investigated.

Objetivo: Describir el patrón temporal y espacial, y determinar los factores asociados a la incidencia de infección por el VIH/sida en jóvenes en Brasil. Método: Estudio ecológico en jóvenes brasileños de 15 a 24 años con diagnóstico de infección por el VIH/sida en el período 2001-2021. Para el análisis temporal se utilizó el método de regresión de puntos de inflexión (joinpoint). Los conglomerados espaciales se detectaron con métodos Bayesianos y de autocorrelación espacial, Gi* de Getis-Ord y escaneo. Se utilizaron cuatro modelos de regresión espacial y no espacial para detectar los factores asociados al resultado. En todos los análisis estadísticos se estableció un valor de p < 0,05 como umbral de significación. Resultados: En Brasil, la incidencia media fue de 12,29 por 100 000 habitantes, con un aumento del 7,3% anual en el período 2007-2014 y una reducción posterior del 3,4% en el período 2014-2021. Se observó un patrón alto/alto y la presencia de puntos calientes, principalmente en municipios del Sur, Sudeste, Centro-Oeste y Norte. El principal conglomerado se localizó en 572 municipios de Rio Grande do Sul y Santa Catarina, y los riesgos relativos más altos se observaron en Manaus (Amazonas) y Rondonópolis (Mato Grosso). La tasa de analfabetismo (ß = -0,08), el índice de Gini (ß = -3,74) y la cobertura de la estrategia de salud familiar (ß = -0,70) mostraron una asociación negativa con el resultado. En cambio, el índice de Firjan de desarrollo municipal (ß = 2,37), el índice de vulnerabilidad social (ß = 6,30), el porcentaje de personas que reciben ayuda del programa de bienestar social Bolsa Família (ß = 0,04) y los ingresos per cápita (ß = 0,008) mostraron una asociación positiva. Conclusión: Hubo una tendencia al aumento de la incidencia de infección por el VIH/sida hasta el 2014, con una reducción posterior hasta el 2021. Los conglomerados de tasas elevadas se concentraron especialmente en los municipios de las regiones Norte, Sur, Sudeste y Centro-Oeste. Los indicadores de vulnerabilidad socioeconómica tienen una influencia positiva o negativa en el resultado, según el territorio investigado.

Diagnosis of visceral leishmaniasis in Ceará state, Brazil: A flow analysis of cases between 2007 and 2021.

OBJECTIVES: To analyse the flow of cases of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the state of Ceará, Brazil, between 2007 and 2021. METHODS: An ecological study was conducted using a spatial approach of newly confirmed cases of VL recorded in the Notifiable Diseases Information System. We identified individuals whose municipality of diagnosis differed from that of their residence. Flow maps, constructed using Tabwin 32 and ArcMap 9.2, allowed for the identification of the volume of traffic between the municipality of residence and that of initial care. RESULTS: There were 6775 confirmed VL cases. As a flow indicator, 178 counties had at least one resident diagnosed in another municipality in Ceará, with 2491 VL cases and an average trip of 79 km. The largest hub for receiving cases for diagnosis was the capital Fortaleza (1478 patients from 129 other municipalities), followed by Sobral, located in the northwestern region of Ceará (599 from 55 municipalities), and Barbalha, in the southern region (171 from 29 municipalities). In this southern region, 25 municipalities moved 55 people for treatment to Juazeiro do Norte and 11 municipalities moved 39 patients to Crato. A total of 255 patients with VL from 11 municipalities in other Brazilian states, mainly from the Northeast and North, were observed and notified in health services in Ceará. CONCLUSIONS: The major centres of VL diagnosis outside residence were in the cities of Fortaleza, Sobral, Barbalha, Juazeiro do Norte and Crato. There was also an outflow of cases from other municipalities located in the northeastern and northern regions of Brazil. The flows were more intense during the first triennium of the analysis and milder from 2019 to 2021. Understanding the diagnostic flow of VL helps in decision making and the development of public policies to improve the lives of the population.

Temporal trend in venous thromboembolism hospitalization rates in Brazilian older adults, 2010-2020.

Aging is one of the main risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE). Changes in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment strategies for this condition in recent years require an analysis of its rates in health services. The objective of this study was to analyze a temporal trend of hospitalizations for VTE in Brazilian older adults. This ecological time series study used data from the Hospital Information System (HIS) on VTE hospitalizations from 2010 to 2020, selecting admissions with the main diagnosis of pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE) (I.26.0, I.26.9) and deep vein thrombosis (DVT) (I.80.0, I80.1, I80.2, I80.3, I80.8, I80.9). Hospitalization rates were calculated for each year and the Prais-Winsten. In Brazil, the trend of hospitalizations for VTE decreased, with an annual percentage change of - 40.71 (confidence interval [CI] - 50.46; - 29.04). DVT decreased, with an annual percentage change of - 43.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] - 51.36; - 33.54). All Brazilian regions showed a downward trend in hospitalizations for VTE and DVT, except for the Northeast region, which remained stable. Conversely, the trend of hospitalizations for PTE showed an upward in Brazil, with an annual percentage change of 4.33 (95% CI 1.26; 7.48). An upward trend was observed in hospitalizations for PTE in the Northeast region, and a stationary trend was observed in the other regions. The results showed a downward trend in hospitalization rates for DVT and an upward trend for PTE. The study indicates regional differences in rates and trends.

Asthma Mortality in Spain From 1980 to 2019: Trends and Perspectives in the New Treatment Era.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Previous studies suggest that asthma mortality rates in Spain have been decreasing in recent years. However, this trend is not homogeneous across age groups. Objective: To analyze asthma mortality rates over a 40-year period, focusing on changes associated with the development of new therapeutic approaches. METHODS: Death records and mid-year population data were collected from the National Statistics Institute. Using the direct method, agestandardized mortality rates were calculated for the overall population and for each sex and age group. Significant changes in mortality trends were identified using joinpoint regression analysis. The independent effects of age, period, and cohort and potential years of life lost due to asthma were also analyzed. RESULTS: Age-standardized asthma mortality rates decreased in Spain from 7.38 to 2.03 deaths per 100 000 from the first to the last quinquennium of the study (1980-1984 to 2015-2019) for the whole population. This decrease was more intense among men, where a decrease from 10.37/100 000 to 0.91/100 000 was observed compared with 5.53 to 2.77/100 000 in women. Mortality decreased in all age groups. During the last 3 years, the decrease stabilized in patients aged >64 years but increased in those aged 35-64. Mortality has been decreasing rapidly since the 1990s in patients aged <35 years. CONCLUSION: Asthma mortality rates began to decline in 1980. The decrease was observed among younger cohorts starting in the 1990s, thus confirming earlier trends. Improved diagnosis and development of new therapies for asthma may have played a role in the changes observed. Close monitoring of asthma mortality rates is necessary to confirm these trends.

Temporal and spatial distribution trends of polio vaccine coverage in less than one-year old children in Brazil, 2011-2021.

BACKGROUND: Low polio vaccine coverage can result in the spread of Poliovirus to areas free from viral circulation. This study analyzed the temporal trends and spatial distribution of polio vaccine coverage in one year-old children in Brazil, between 2011 and 2021. METHODS: This was an ecological, time-series study (2011 to 2021) with annual vaccine coverages against poliomyelitis, extracted from the Information System of the National Immunization Program from the 26 States and the Distrito Federal (DF). The percentage reductions in vaccination coverage in Brazil and in the Regions were calculated. Prais-Winsten regression models were used to analyze time series for the Regions and States, and spatial analysis identified the distribution of clusters (high-high; low-low; high-low and low-high) of vaccination coverages across Brazilian municipalities, using a 5% significance level. RESULTS: From 2011 to 2021, the coverage of polio vaccines decreased by 29,9%. There was a progressive increase observed in clusters resulting in low vaccination coverages (140 low-low Brazilian municipalities in 2011 vs. 403 in 2021), mostly reported in the North and Northeast regions of the country. There was a downward trend in vaccination coverages in 24 of the 26 States and DF (p ≤ 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The reduction in polio vaccine coverage, as observed in the North and Northeast regions of Brazil, may favor the spread of Poliovirus. Therefore, vaccination strategies should be prioritized for children residing in areas with sharp and recurrent declines in vaccination coverages, including travelers, migrants, and refugees.

Considerations for Subgroup Analyses in Cluster-Randomized Trials Based on Aggregated Individual-Level Predictors.

In research assessing the effect of an intervention or exposure, a key secondary objective often involves assessing differential effects of this intervention or exposure in subgroups of interest; this is often referred to as assessing effect modification or heterogeneity of treatment effects (HTE). Observed HTE can have important implications for policy, including intervention strategies (e.g., will some patients benefit more from intervention than others?) and prioritizing resources (e.g., to reduce observed health disparities). Analysis of HTE is well understood in studies where the independent unit is an individual. In contrast, in studies where the independent unit is a cluster (e.g., a hospital or school) and a cluster-level outcome is used in the analysis, it is less well understood how to proceed if the HTE analysis of interest involves an individual-level characteristic (e.g., self-reported race) that must be aggregated at the cluster level. Through simulations, we show that only individual-level models have power to detect HTE by individual-level variables; if outcomes must be defined at the cluster level, then there is often low power to detect HTE by the corresponding aggregated variables. We illustrate the challenges inherent to this type of analysis in a study assessing the effect of an intervention on increasing COVID-19 booster vaccination rates at long-term care centers.

Mortality by road transport injury in Brazilian municipalities between 2000 and 2018.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate patterns of mortality by road transport injury (RTI) in Brazilian municipalities, focused on deaths of motorcyclists, between 2000 and 2018, and their relation with population size and economic status. STUDY DESIGN: This was an ecological epidemiological study with a descriptive and analytical nature. METHODS: The age-standardized RTI mortality rates were calculated for the Brazilian municipalities, referring to the 3-year periods of 2000/2002 (T1), 2009/2011 (T2), and 2016/2018 (T3). The rates were stratified according to macroregion and population size and were compared in terms of percentage variation from one 3-year period to another. The Moran Global and Local indices were used in the spatial point-pattern analysis of the rates. To verify the association with the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, the Spearman correlation coefficient was applied. RESULTS: A decline in RTI mortality rates was found between 2000 and 2018, with the most significant declines observed in municipalities from the South and Southeast regions of Brazil. However, increases were observed among motorcyclists. Clusters of municipalities were detected, which presented high mortality rates among the motorcyclists in the Northeast region and in some states of the North and Midwest regions. The mortality rates showed a negative correlation with the GDP per capita of the Brazilian municipalities. CONCLUSIONS: Although there were decreases in RTI mortality rates between 1990 and 2018, there was a significant increase in deaths among motorcyclists, especially in the Northeast, North, and Midwest regions of the country. Such differences can be explained by unequal growth in the size of the motorcycle fleet in those regions, by less law enforcement capability, and by the implementation of educational actions.

[Schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases and sanitation in Latin America and the Caribbean: a systematic reviewRelación entre la prevalencia de esquistosomiasis y geohelmintiasis y las condiciones sanitarias en América Latina y el Caribe: una revisión sistemática]. / Esquistossomose, geo-helmintíases e condições sanitárias na América Latina e Caribe: uma revisão sistemática.

Objective: To investigate the relationship between the prevalence of schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis with variables related to access to water, sanitation and solid waste in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. Method: A systematic review was performed in the LILACS, PubMed, Web of Science, and SciELO databases. Studies published between 1950 and August 2021, with an ecological design and a focus on population groups (states, municipalities and/or districts), having the prevalence of infection by Schistosoma mansoni, Ancylostoma sp., Necator americanus, Ascaris lumbricoides or Trichuris trichiura as primary variable and access to water, sewage and/or solid waste as explanatory variables were included. Open access articles with full text available in English, Spanish, or Portuguese were considered. The risk of bias and the quality of the studies were assessed according to the Joanna Briggs Institute manual. Results: Of 2 714 articles, nine were eligible, published between 1994 and 2021 and covering 22 LAC countries and 14 350 municipalities. All articles had moderate methodological quality. Environmental variables indicated an association between water supply and solid waste collection with schistosomiasis; water supply with ascariasis, trichuriasis and hookworm; and sewage with ascariasis and hookworm. Except for one article, which had regional coverage for LAC, all the others were developed in Brazil. Conclusion: There is a clear need to expand research on the association between household and collective health conditions and parasitic diseases for all endemic countries in LAC to support environmental strategies to control these diseases.

Objetivo: Investigar la relación entre la prevalencia de esquistosomiasis y geohelmintiasis y las variables de acceso al agua, el saneamiento y el manejo de residuos sólidos en los países de América Latina y el Caribe. Métodos: Se realizó una revisión sistemática en las bases de datos LILACS, PubMed, Web of Science y SciELO. Todos los artículos fueron de calidad metodológica moderada. Se incluyeron estudios publicados entre 1950 y agosto del 2021, con diseño ecológico y atención en agregados demográficos (estados, municipios o distritos), que tuvieran como resultado principal la prevalencia de infección por Schistosoma mansoni, Ancylostoma spp., Necator americanus, Ascaris lumbricoides o Trichuris trichiura y como variable explicativa el acceso al agua, el saneamiento y el manejo de residuos sólidos. Se analizaron artículos de texto completo y acceso libre en español, inglés o portugués. El riesgo de sesgo y la calidad de los estudios se evaluaron según las normas del manual del Instituto Joanna Briggs. Resultados: De los 2 714 artículos, hubo 9 que cumplieron con los requisitos establecidos; estos se publicaron entre 1994 y el 2021 y abarcaron 22 países y 14 350 municipios de América Latina y el Caribe. Las variables ambientales indicaron una relación del abastecimiento de agua y la recolección de residuos sólidos con la esquistosomiasis; del abastecimiento de agua con la ascariasis, la tricuriasis y la anquilostomiasis; y del saneamiento con la ascariasis y la anquilostomiasis. Con excepción de un artículo que abarcó la Región de América Latina y el Caribe, todos los demás se realizaron en Brasil. Conclusiones: Es evidente la necesidad de ampliar las investigaciones sobre la relación entre las condiciones sanitarias domésticas y colectivas y las enfermedades parasitarias en todos los países de América Latina y el Caribe donde son endémicas, con el fin de formular estrategias centradas en el medio ambiente para controlar esas enfermedades.

An ecological association of number of civil servants and physicians with prefectural-level rapid COVID-19 vaccination of older people in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Civil servants and physicians play an important role in combating COVID-19. However, it is unclear whether the number of civil servants and physicians is associated with rapid COVID-19 vaccine uptake among older people (i.e., smoother rollout of priority vaccination for older people). METHODS: Using Poisson regression models of the generalized estimating equations, we examined the ecological association of the number of civil servants and physicians with prefectural-level rapid COVID-19 vaccination in older people. Prefectural-level data were based on publicly available government surveys. The outcome variable was the proportion of fully vaccinated people aged 65 and older on the day with the largest standard deviation across 47 prefectures (i.e., July 6, 2021). The explanatory variable was the number of civil servants and physicians per population by prefecture. RESULTS: After adjusting for population density, influenza vaccination coverage, socioeconomic factors, natural environmental factors, health indicators, and the number of civil servants and physicians, in all 3 models, prefectures with the highest number of civil servants and physicians had faster COVID-19 vaccine uptake than prefectures with the lowest number. A significant trend between higher staffing levels and more rapid vaccination was observed for the number of physicians in all 3 models, but for the number of civil servants only in one model. CONCLUSION: We found that COVID-19 vaccine uptake among older people was more rapid in prefectures with more civil servants and physicians per population, with the number of physicians having a stronger association. This study may point the way to future areas of research on vaccine policies that include other age groups and infectious diseases.

Low availability of functional seed trait data from the tropics could negatively affect global macroecological studies, predictive models and plant conservation.

BACKGROUND: Plant seeds have many traits that influence ecological functions, ex situ conservation, restoration success and their sustainable use. Several seed traits are known to vary significantly between tropical and temperate regions. Here we present three additional traits for which existing data indicate differences between geographical zones. We discuss evidence for geographical bias in availability of data for these traits, as well as the negative consequences of this bias. SCOPE: We reviewed the literature on seed desiccation sensitivity studies that compare predictive models to experimental data and show how a lack of data on populations and species from tropical regions could reduce the predictive power of global models. In addition, we compiled existing data on relative embryo size and post-dispersal embryo growth and found that relative embryo size was significantly larger, and embryo growth limited, in tropical species. The available data showed strong biases towards non-tropical species and certain families, indicating that these biases need to be corrected to perform truly global analyses. Furthermore, we argue that the low number of seed germination studies on tropical high-mountain species makes it difficult to compare across geographical regions and predict the effects of climate change in these highly specialized tropical ecosystems. In particular, we show that seed traits of geographically restricted páramo species have been studied less than those of more widely distributed species, with most publications unavailable in English or in the peer-reviewed literature. CONCLUSIONS: The low availability of functional seed trait data from populations and species in the tropics can have negative consequences for macroecological studies, predictive models and their application to plant conservation. We propose that global analyses of seed traits with evidence for geographical variation prioritize generation of new data from tropical regions as well as multi-lingual searches of both the grey- and peer-reviewed literature in order to fill geographical and taxonomic gaps.

Unacceptable persistence of territorial inequalities in avoidable under-five mortality in Colombia between 2000 and 2019: a multilevel approach.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed at evaluating territorial inequalities in avoidable mortality in children under 5 years of age in Colombia between 2000 and 2019. STUDY DESIGN: This was an ecological study. METHODS: An ecological, longitudinal, multigroup study was conducted using secondary sources. Because of the hierarchical structure of the data, the effect of territorial characteristics on the count of avoidable under-five deaths was estimated using a three-level negative binomial regression model with random intercepts for municipality and fixed intercepts for time and departments. RESULTS: Between 2000 and 2019, there were 216,809 avoidable under-five deaths in Colombia (91.3% of all registered deaths of children under 5 years of age). A total of 1117 municipalities located in 33 departments were analyzed over five 4-year periods. Ecological relationships were found between avoidable under-five mortality and the percentage of adolescent births, female illiteracy, and multidimensional poverty at the municipal level (standardized mortality ratio: 1.43 95% confidence interval: 1.33-1.54 for the group with the highest level vs the group with the lowest level of poverty). Furthermore, multidimensional poverty was a confounding factor for the association between the percentage of the population living in rural areas and avoidable child mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Systematic and avoidable gaps were observed in mortality in children aged under 5 years in Colombia, where the territory constitutes an axis of inequality. Implementing strategies and programs that contribute to improving the conditions of women and socio-economic conditions in the territories should be a priority.

Number of public health nurses and COVID-19 incidence rate by variant type: an ecological study of 47 prefectures in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Community health activities by public health nurses (PHNs) are known to improve lifestyle habits of local residents, and may encourage the practice of infectious disease prevention behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigated the association between prefecture-level COVID-19 incidence rate and the number of PHNs per population in Japan, by the COVID-19 variant type. METHODS: Our data were based on government surveys where prefectural-level data are accessible to the public. The outcome variable was the COVID-19 incidence rate (i.e., the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population for each variant type in 47 prefectures). The explanatory variable was the number of PHNs per 100,000 population by prefecture. Covariates included socioeconomic factors, regional characteristics, healthcare resources, and health behaviors. The generalized estimating equations of the multivariable Poisson regression models were used to estimate adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the COVID-19 cases. We performed stratified analyses by variant type (i.e., wild type, alpha variant, and delta variant). RESULTS: A total of 1,705,224 confirmed COVID-19 cases (1351.6 per 100,000 population) in Japan were reported as of September 30, 2021. The number of PHNs per 100,000 population in Japan was 41.9. Multivariable Poisson regression models showed that a lower number of PHNs per population was associated with higher IRR of COVID-19. Among all COVID-19 cases, compared to the highest quintile group of the number of PHNs per population, the adjusted IRR of the lowest quintile group was consistently significant in the models adjusting for socioeconomic factors (IRR: 3.76, 95% CI: 2.55-5.54), regional characteristics (1.73, 1.28-2.34), healthcare resources (3.88, 2.45-6.16), and health behaviors (2.17, 1.39-3.37). These significant associations were unaffected by the variant type of COVID-19. CONCLUSION: We found that the COVID-19 incidence rate was higher in prefectures with fewer PHNs per population, regardless of the COVID-19 variant type. By increasing the number of PHNs, it may be possible to contain the spread of COVID-19 in Japan and provide an effective human resource to combat emerging infectious diseases in the future.

Number of doses of Measles-Mumps-Rubella vaccine applied in Brazil before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Due to the social isolation measures adopted in an attempt to mitigate the risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2, there has been a reduction in vaccination coverage of children and adolescents in several countries and regions of the world. OBJECTIVE: Analyze the number of doses of vaccine against Measles-Mumps-Rubella (MMR) applied before and after the beginning of mitigation measures due to COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. METHODS: The data collected refer to the number of doses of the MMR vaccine applied monthly to the target population residing in Brazil: cahildren, aged 12 months (first dose) and children, aged 9 years (second dose), from April 2019 to December 2020. Differences in MMR vaccine doses from April 2019 to March 2020 (before the start of mitigation measures) and April 2020 to September 2020 (after the start of the mitigation measures) were evaluated. Spatial analysis identified clusters with a high percentage of reduction in the median of applied doses no Brazil. RESULTS: There was a reduction in the median of doses applied in the Regions North (- 33.03%), Northeast (- 43.49%) and South (- 39.01%) e nos Estados Acre (- 48.46%), Amazonas (- 28.96%), Roraima (- 61.91%), Paraíba (- 41.58%), Sergipe (- 47.52%), Rio de Janeiro (-59.31%) and Santa Catarina (- 49.32) (p < 0.05). High-high type spatial clusters (reduction between 34.00 and 90.00%) were formed in the five regions of Brazil (Moran's I = 0.055; p = 0.01). CONCLUSION: A reduction in the number of MMR vaccine doses was evidenced as a possible effect by the restrictive actions of COVID-19 in Brazil.

Tuberculosis forecasting and temporal trends by sex and age in a high endemic city in northeastern Brazil: where were we before the Covid-19 pandemic?

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to describe the temporal trend of tuberculosis cases according to sex and age group and evidence the level of disease before the Covid-19 pandemic in a TB high endemic city. METHODS: This was a time series study carried out in a city in northeast Brazil. The population was composed of cases of tuberculosis, excluding those with HIV-positive status, reported between the years 2002 and 2018. An exploratory analysis of the monthly rates of tuberculosis detection, smoothed according to sex and age group, was performed. Subsequently, the progression of the trend and prediction of the disease were also characterized according to these aspects. For the trends forecast, the seasonal autoregressive linear integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the usual Box-Jenkins method were used to choose the most appropriate models. RESULTS: A total of 1620 cases of tuberculosis were reported, with an incidence of 49.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in men and 34.0 per 100,000 in women. Regarding the incidence for both sexes, there was a decreasing trend, which was similar for age. Evidence resulting from the application of the time series shows a decreasing trend in the years 2002-2018, with a trend of stability. CONCLUSIONS: The study evidenced a decreasing trend in tuberculosis, even before the Covid-19 pandemic, for both sex and age; however, in a step really slow from that recommended by the World Health Organization. According to the results, the disease would have achieved a level of stability in the city next years, however it might have been aggravated by the pandemic. These findings are relevant to evidence the serious behavior and trends of TB in a high endemic scenario considering a context prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Be careful with ecological associations.

Ecological studies are observational studies commonly used in public health research. The main characteristic of this study design is that the statistical analysis is based on pooled (i.e., aggregated) rather than on individual data. Thus, patient-level information such as age, gender, income and disease condition are not considered as individual characteristics but as mean values or frequencies, calculated at country or community level. Ecological studies can be used to compare the aggregated prevalence and incidence data of a given condition across different geographical areas, to assess time-related trends of the frequency of a pre-defined disease/condition, to identify factors explaining changes in health indicators over time in specific populations, to discriminate genetic from environmental causes of geographical variation in disease, or to investigate the relationship between a population-level exposure and a specific disease or condition. The major pitfall in ecological studies is the ecological fallacy, a bias which occurs when conclusions about individuals are erroneously deduced from results about the group to which those individuals belong. In this paper, by using a series of examples, we provide a general explanation of the ecological studies and provide some useful elements to recognize or suspect ecological fallacy in this type of studies.

Association between naturally occurring lithium in drinking water and suicide rates: systematic review and meta-analysis of ecological studies.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of mental health conditions and national suicide rates are increasing in many countries. Lithium is widely and effectively used in pharmacological doses for the treatment and prevention of manic/depressive episodes, stabilising mood and reducing the risk of suicide. Since the 1990s, several ecological studies have tested the hypothesis that trace doses of naturally occurring lithium in drinking water may have a protective effect against suicide in the general population. AIMS: To synthesise the global evidence on the association between lithium levels in drinking water and suicide mortality rates. METHOD: The MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science and PsycINFO databases were searched to identify eligible ecological studies published between 1 January 1946 and 10 September 2018. Standardised regression coefficients for total (i.e. both genders combined), male and female suicide mortality rates were extracted and pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. The study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42016041375). RESULTS: The literature search identified 415 articles; of these, 15 ecological studies were included in the synthesis. The random-effects meta-analysis showed a consistent protective (or inverse) association between lithium levels/concentration in publicly available drinking water and total (pooled ß = -0.27, 95% CI -0.47 to -0.08; P = 0.006, I2 = 83.3%), male (pooled ß = -0.26, 95% CI -0.56 to 0.03; P = 0.08, I2 = 91.9%) and female (pooled ß = -0.13, 95% CI -0.24 to -0.02; P = 0.03, I2 = 28.5%) suicide mortality rates. A similar protective association was observed in the six studies included in the narrative synthesis, and subgroup meta-analyses based on the higher/lower suicide mortality rates and lithium levels/concentration. CONCLUSIONS: This synthesis of ecological studies, which are subject to the ecological fallacy/bias, supports the hypothesis that there is a protective (or inverse) association between lithium intakes from public drinking water and suicide mortality at the population level. Naturally occurring lithium in drinking water may have the potential to reduce the risk of suicide and may possibly help in mood stabilisation, particularly in populations with relatively high suicide rates and geographical areas with a greater range of lithium concentration in the drinking water. All the available evidence suggests that randomised community trials of lithium supplementation of the water supply might be a means of testing the hypothesis, particularly in communities (or settings) with demonstrated high prevalence of mental health conditions, violent criminal behaviour, chronic substance misuse and risk of suicide.

[Infant mortality and social inequalities in Argentina, 1980-2017]. / Mortalidad infantil y desigualdades sociales en Argentina, 1980-2017.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the trend in infant mortality, inequality between jurisdictions and inequality associated with social conditions in Argentina between 1980 and 2017. METHODS: Ecological and time series study of infant mortality and its inequality. Official data on infant mortality, births and unmet basic needs were obtained; the infant mortality rate, the Gini index and the concentration index were calculated. The trend was also analyzed with a linear regression model and the regression coefficient and its statistical significance were calculated. RESULTS: Infant mortality was reduced by 71.2% (from 32.41 to 9.34 per 1 000 live births). Inequality by jurisdiction also decreased, and the Gini index fell from 0,163 to 0,09. Inequality associated with social conditions also showed a reduction, and the concentration index was reduced from -0.153 to -0.079. Although infant mortality declined throughout the period, this decline was not always accompanied by a reduction in the Gini index and the concentration index. CONCLUSIONS: The trend in the infant mortality rate decreased while the inequality in its distribution by jurisdiction and the inequality associated with social conditions did not always accompany this reduction.