Predicting resilience of migratory birds to environmental change.

The pace and scale of environmental change represent major challenges to many organisms. Animals that move long distances, such as migratory birds, are especially vulnerable to change since they need chains of intact habitat along their migratory routes. Estimating the resilience of such species to environmental changes assists in targeting conservation efforts. We developed a migration modeling framework to predict past (1960s), present (2010s), and future (2060s) optimal migration strategies across five shorebird species (Scolopacidae) within the East Asian-Australasian Flyway, which has seen major habitat deterioration and loss over the last century, and compared these predictions to empirical tracks from the present. Our model captured the migration strategies of the five species and identified the changes in migrations needed to respond to habitat deterioration and climate change. Notably, the larger species, with single or few major stopover sites, need to establish new migration routes and strategies, while smaller species can buffer habitat loss by redistributing their stopover areas to novel or less-used sites. Comparing model predictions with empirical tracks also indicates that larger species with the stronger need for adaptations continue to migrate closer to the optimal routes of the past, before habitat deterioration accelerated. Our study not only quantifies the vulnerability of species in the face of global change but also explicitly reveals the extent of adaptations required to sustain their migrations. This modeling framework provides a tool for conservation planning that can accommodate the future needs of migratory species.

Factors of global change affecting plants act at different levels of the ecological hierarchy.

Plants and ecosystems worldwide are exposed to a wide range of chemical, physical, and biological factors of global change, many of which act concurrently. As bringing order to the array of factors is required in order to generate an enhanced understanding of simultaneous impacts, classification schemes have been developed. One such classification scheme is dedicated to capturing the different targets of global change factors along the ecological hierarchy. We build on this pioneering work, and refine the conceptual framework in several ways, focusing on plants and terrestrial systems: (i) we more strictly define the target level of the hierarchy, such that every factor typically has just one target level, and not many; (ii) we include effects above the level of the community, that is, there are effects also at the ecosystem scale that cannot be reduced to any level below this; (iii) we introduce the level of the landscape to capture certain land use change effects while abandoning the level below the individual. We discuss how effects can propagate along the levels of the ecological hierarchy, upwards and downwards, presenting opportunities for explaining non-additivity of effects of multiple factors. We hope that this updated conceptual framework will help inform the next generation of plant-focused global change experiments, specifically aimed at non-additivity of effects at the confluence of many factors.

The adaptive mechanisms of the marine diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii to long-term high CO2 and warming.

While it is known that increased dissolved CO2 concentrations and rising sea surface temperature (ocean warming) can act interactively on marine phytoplankton, the ultimate molecular mechanisms underlying this interaction on a long-term evolutionary scale are relatively unexplored. Here, we performed transcriptomics and quantitative metabolomics analyses, along with a physiological trait analysis, on the marine diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii adapted for approximately 3.5 years to warming and/or high CO2 conditions. We show that long-term warming has more pronounced impacts than elevated CO2 on gene expression, resulting in a greater number of differentially expressed genes (DEGs). The largest number of DEGs was observed in populations adapted to warming + high CO2, indicating a potential synergistic interaction between these factors. We further identified the metabolic pathways in which the DEGs function and the metabolites with significantly changed abundances. We found that ribosome biosynthesis-related pathways were upregulated to meet the increased material and energy demands after warming or warming in combination with high CO2. This resulted in the upregulation of energy metabolism pathways such as glycolysis, photorespiration, the tricarboxylic acid cycle, and the oxidative pentose phosphate pathway, as well as the associated metabolites. These metabolic changes help compensate for reduced photochemical efficiency and photosynthesis. Our study emphasizes that the upregulation of ribosome biosynthesis plays an essential role in facilitating the adaptation of phytoplankton to global ocean changes and elucidates the interactive effects of warming and high CO2 on the adaptation of marine phytoplankton in the context of global change.

Decline in biological soil crust N-fixing lichens linked to increasing summertime temperatures.

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts), comprised of mosses, lichens, and cyanobacteria, are key components to many dryland communities. Climate change and other anthropogenic disturbances are thought to cause a decline in mosses and lichens, yet few long-term studies exist to track potential shifts in these sensitive soil-surface communities. Using a unique long-term observational dataset from a temperate dryland with initial observations dating back to 1967, we examine the effects of 53 y of observed environmental variation and Bromus tectorum invasion on biocrust communities in a grassland never grazed by domestic livestock. Annual observations show a steep decline in N-fixing lichen cover (dominated by Collema species) from 1996 to 2002, coinciding with a period of extended drought, with Collema communities never able to recover. Declines in other lichen species were also observed, both in number of species present and by total cover, which were attributed to increasing summertime temperatures. Conversely, moss species gradually gained in cover over the survey years, especially following a large Bromus tectorum invasion at the study onset (ca. 1996 to 2001). These results support a growing body of studies that suggests climate change is a key driver in changes to certain components of late-successional biocrust communities. Results here suggest that warming may partially negate decades of protection from disturbance, with biocrust communities reaching a vital tipping point. The accelerated rate of ongoing warming observed in this study may have resulted in the loss of lichen cover and diversity, which could have long-term implications for global temperate dryland ecosystems.

Compensatory recruitment allows amphibian population persistence in anthropogenic habitats.

Habitat anthropization is a major driver of global biodiversity decline. Although most species are negatively affected, some benefit from anthropogenic habitat modifications by showing intriguing life-history responses. For instance, increased recruitment through higher allocation to reproduction or improved performance during early-life stages could compensate for reduced adult survival, corresponding to "compensatory recruitment". To date, evidence of compensatory recruitment in response to habitat modification is restricted to plants, limiting understanding of its importance as a response to global change. We used the yellow-bellied toad (Bombina variegata), an amphibian occupying a broad range of natural and anthropogenic habitats, as a model species to test for and to quantify compensatory recruitment. Using an exceptional capture-recapture dataset composed of 21,714 individuals from 67 populations across Europe, we showed that adult survival was lower, lifespan was shorter, and actuarial senescence was higher in anthropogenic habitats, especially those affected by intense human activities. Increased recruitment in anthropogenic habitats fully offset reductions in adult survival, with the consequence that population growth rate in both habitat types was similar. Our findings indicate that compensatory recruitment allows toad populations to remain viable in human-dominated habitats and might facilitate the persistence of other animal populations in such environments.

Experimental evolution reveals the synergistic genomic mechanisms of adaptation to ocean warming and acidification in a marine copepod.

Metazoan adaptation to global change relies on selection of standing genetic variation. Determining the extent to which this variation exists in natural populations, particularly for responses to simultaneous stressors, is essential to make accurate predictions for persistence in future conditions. Here, we identified the genetic variation enabling the copepod Acartia tonsa to adapt to experimental ocean warming, acidification, and combined ocean warming and acidification (OWA) over 25 generations of continual selection. Replicate populations showed a consistent polygenic response to each condition, targeting an array of adaptive mechanisms including cellular homeostasis, development, and stress response. We used a genome-wide covariance approach to partition the allelic changes into three categories: selection, drift and replicate-specific selection, and laboratory adaptation responses. The majority of allele frequency change in warming (57%) and OWA (63%) was driven by shared selection pressures across replicates, but this effect was weaker under acidification alone (20%). OWA and warming shared 37% of their response to selection but OWA and acidification shared just 1%, indicating that warming is the dominant driver of selection in OWA. Despite the dominance of warming, the interaction with acidification was still critical as the OWA selection response was highly synergistic with 47% of the allelic selection response unique from either individual treatment. These results disentangle how genomic targets of selection differ between single and multiple stressors and demonstrate the complexity that nonadditive multiple stressors will contribute to predictions of adaptation to complex environmental shifts caused by global change.

Regime shifts, trends, and variability of lake productivity at a global scale.

Lakes are often described as sentinels of global change. Phenomena like lake eutrophication, algal blooms, or reorganization in community composition belong to the most studied ecosystem regime shifts. However, although regime shifts have been well documented in several lakes, a global assessment of the prevalence of regime shifts is still missing, and, more in general, of the factors altering stability in lake status, is missing. Here, we provide a first global assessment of regime shifts and stability in the productivity of 1,015 lakes worldwide using trophic state index (TSI) time series derived from satellite imagery. We find that 12.8% of the lakes studied show regime shifts whose signatures are compatible with tipping points, while the number of detected regime shifts from low to high TSI has increased over time. Although our results suggest an overall stable picture for global lake dynamics, the limited instability signatures do not mean that lakes are insensitive to global change. Modeling the interaction between lake climatic, geophysical, and socioeconomic features and their stability properties, we find that the probability of a lake experiencing a tipping point increases with human population density in its catchment, while it decreases as the gross domestic product of that population increases. Our results show how quantifying lake productivity dynamics at a global scale highlights socioeconomic inequalities in conserving natural environments.

Global patterns in the predator satiation effect of masting: A meta-analysis.

SignificanceMasting, or synchronous production of large seed crops, is widespread among plants. The predator satiation hypothesis states that masting evolved to overwhelm seed predators with an excess of food. Yet, this popular explanation faced few rigorous tests. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies that related the magnitude of seed production to the intensity of seed predation. Our results validate certain theoretical notions (e.g., that predator satiation is more effective at higher latitudes) but challenge others (e.g., that specialist and generalist consumers differ in the type of functional response to masting). We also found that masting is losing its ability to satiate consumers, probably because global warming affected masting patterns. This shift might considerably impair the reproduction of masting plants.

The Evolutionary Importance of Intraspecific Variation in Sexual Communication Across Sensory Modalities.

The evolution of sexual communication is critically important in the diversity of arthropods, which are declining at a fast pace worldwide. Their environments are rapidly changing, with increasing chemical, acoustic, and light pollution. To predict how arthropod species will respond to changing climates, habitats, and communities, we need to understand how sexual communication systems can evolve. In the past decades, intraspecific variation in sexual signals and responses across different modalities has been identified, but never in a comparative way. In this review, we identify and compare the level and extent of intraspecific variation in sexual signals and responses across three different modalities, chemical, acoustic, and visual, focusing mostly on insects. By comparing causes and possible consequences of intraspecific variation in sexual communication among these modalities, we identify shared and unique patterns, as well as knowledge needed to predict the evolution of sexual communication systems in arthropods in a changing world.

Studying interactions among anthropogenic stressors in freshwater ecosystems: A systematic review of 2396 multiple-stressor experiments.

Understanding the interactions among anthropogenic stressors is critical for effective conservation and management of ecosystems. Freshwater scientists have invested considerable resources in conducting factorial experiments to disentangle stressor interactions by testing their individual and combined effects. However, the diversity of stressors and systems studied has hindered previous syntheses of this body of research. To overcome this challenge, we used a novel machine learning framework to identify relevant studies from over 235,000 publications. Our synthesis resulted in a new dataset of 2396 multiple-stressor experiments in freshwater systems. By summarizing the methods used in these studies, quantifying trends in the popularity of the investigated stressors, and performing co-occurrence analysis, we produce the most comprehensive overview of this diverse field of research to date. We provide both a taxonomy grouping the 909 investigated stressors into 31 classes and an open-source and interactive version of the dataset (https://jamesaorr.shinyapps.io/freshwater-multiple-stressors/). Inspired by our results, we provide a framework to help clarify whether statistical interactions detected by factorial experiments align with stressor interactions of interest, and we outline general guidelines for the design of multiple-stressor experiments relevant to any system. We conclude by highlighting the research directions required to better understand freshwater ecosystems facing multiple stressors.

Human-modified habitats imperil ornamented dragonflies less than their non-ornamented counterparts at local, regional, and continental scales.

Biologists have long wondered how sexual ornamentation influences a species' risk of extinction. Because the evolution of condition-dependent ornamentation can reduce intersexual conflict and accelerate the fixation of advantageous alleles, some theory predicts that ornamented taxa can be buffered against extinction in novel and/or stressful environments. Nevertheless, evidence from the wild remains limited. Here, we show that ornamented dragonflies are less vulnerable to extinction across multiple spatial scales. Population-occupancy models across the Western United States reveal that ornamented species have become more common relative to non-ornamented species over >100 years. Phylogenetic analyses indicate that ornamented species exhibit lower continent-wide extinction risk than non-ornamented species. Finally, spatial analyses of local dragonfly assemblages suggest that ornamented species possess advantages over non-ornamented taxa at living in habitats that have been converted to farms and cities. Together, these findings suggest that ornamented taxa are buffered against contemporary extinction at local, regional, and continental scales.

Using individual-based trait frequency distributions to forecast plant-pollinator network responses to environmental change.

Determining how and why organisms interact is fundamental to understanding ecosystem responses to future environmental change. To assess the impact on plant-pollinator interactions, recent studies have examined how the effects of environmental change on individual interactions accumulate to generate species-level responses. Here, we review recent developments in using plant-pollinator networks of interacting individuals along with their functional traits, where individuals are nested within species nodes. We highlight how these individual-level, trait-based networks connect intraspecific trait variation (as frequency distributions of multiple traits) with dynamic responses within plant-pollinator communities. This approach can better explain interaction plasticity, and changes to interaction probabilities and network structure over spatiotemporal or other environmental gradients. We argue that only through appreciating such trait-based interaction plasticity can we accurately forecast the potential vulnerability of interactions to future environmental change. We follow this with general guidance on how future studies can collect and analyse high-resolution interaction and trait data, with the hope of improving predictions of future plant-pollinator network responses for targeted and effective conservation.

Reading tea leaves worldwide: Decoupled drivers of initial litter decomposition mass-loss rate and stabilization.

The breakdown of plant material fuels soil functioning and biodiversity. Currently, process understanding of global decomposition patterns and the drivers of such patterns are hampered by the lack of coherent large-scale datasets. We buried 36,000 individual litterbags (tea bags) worldwide and found an overall negative correlation between initial mass-loss rates and stabilization factors of plant-derived carbon, using the Tea Bag Index (TBI). The stabilization factor quantifies the degree to which easy-to-degrade components accumulate during early-stage decomposition (e.g. by environmental limitations). However, agriculture and an interaction between moisture and temperature led to a decoupling between initial mass-loss rates and stabilization, notably in colder locations. Using TBI improved mass-loss estimates of natural litter compared to models that ignored stabilization. Ignoring the transformation of dead plant material to more recalcitrant substances during early-stage decomposition, and the environmental control of this transformation, could overestimate carbon losses during early decomposition in carbon cycle models.

The importance of worldwide linguistic and cultural diversity for climate change resilience.

Local minority languages and dialects, through the local knowledge and expertise associated with them, can play major roles in analysing climate change and biodiversity loss, in facilitating community awareness of environmental crises and in setting up locally-adapted resilience and sustainability strategies. While the situation and contribution of Indigenous and Tribal Peoples are of emblematic importance, the issue of the relationships between cultural and linguistic diversity and environmental awareness and protection does not solely concern peripheral highly-specialized communities in specific ecosystems of the Global South, but constitutes a worldwide challenge, throughout all of the countries, whatever their geographical location, their economical development, or their political status. Environmental emergency and climate change resilience should therefore raise international awareness on the need to promote the survival and development of minority languages and dialects and to take into account their creativity and expertise in relation to the dynamics of their local environments.

Into the danger zone: How the within-host distribution of parasites controls virulence.

Despite the importance of virulence in epidemiological theory, the relative contributions of host and parasite to virulence outcomes remain poorly understood. Here, we use reciprocal cross experiments to disentangle the influence of host and parasite on core virulence components-infection and pathology-and understand dramatic differences in parasite-induced malformations in California amphibians. Surveys across 319 populations revealed that amphibians' malformation risk was 2.7× greater in low-elevation ponds, even while controlling for trematode infection load. Factorial experiments revealed that parasites from low-elevation sites induced higher per-parasite pathology (reduced host survival and growth), whereas there were no effects of host source on resistance or tolerance. Parasite populations also exhibited marked differences in within-host distribution: ~90% of low-elevation cysts aggregated around the hind limbs, relative to <60% from high-elevation. This offers a novel, mechanistic basis for regional variation in parasite-induced malformations while promoting a framework for partitioning host and parasite contributions to virulence.

Nitrogen availability and plant functional composition modify biodiversity-multifunctionality relationships.

Biodiversity typically increases multiple ecosystem functions simultaneously (multifunctionality) but variation in the strength and direction of biodiversity effects between studies suggests context dependency. To determine how different factors modulate the diversity effect on multifunctionality, we established a large grassland experiment manipulating plant species richness, resource addition, functional composition (exploitative vs. conservative species), functional diversity and enemy abundance. We measured ten above- and belowground functions and calculated ecosystem multifunctionality. Species richness and functional diversity both increased multifunctionality, but their effects were context dependent. Richness increased multifunctionality when communities were assembled with fast-growing species. This was because slow species were more redundant in their functional effects, whereas different fast species promoted different functions. Functional diversity also increased multifunctionality but this effect was dampened by nitrogen enrichment and enemy presence. Our study suggests that a shift towards fast-growing communities will not only alter ecosystem functioning but also the strength of biodiversity-functioning relationships.

Half of global islands have reached critical area thresholds for undergoing rapid increases in biological invasions.

Biological invasions are among the threats to global biodiversity and social sustainability, especially on islands. Identifying the threshold of area at which non-native species begin to increase abruptly is crucial for early prevention strategies. The small-island effect (SIE) was proposed to quantify the nonlinear relationship between native species richness and area but has not yet been applied to non-native species and thus to predict the key breakpoints at which established non-native species start to increase rapidly. Based on an extensive global dataset, including 769 species of non-native birds, mammals, amphibians and reptiles established on 4277 islands across 54 archipelagos, we detected a high prevalence of SIEs across 66.7% of archipelagos. Approximately 50% of islands have reached the threshold area and thus may be undergoing a rapid increase in biological invasions. SIEs were more likely to occur in those archipelagos with more non-native species introduction events, more established historical non-native species, lower habitat diversity and larger archipelago area range. Our findings may have important implications not only for targeted surveillance of biological invasions on global islands but also for predicting the responses of both non-native and native species to ongoing habitat fragmentation under sustained land-use modification and climate change.

Patterns and inferred causes of liana mortality in a tropical forest.

Lianas are major contributors to tropical forest dynamics, yet we know little about their mortality. Using overlapping censuses of the lianas and trees across a 50 ha stand of moist tropical forest, we contrasted community-wide patterns of liana mortality with relatively well-studied patterns of tree mortality to quantify patterns of liana death and identify contributing factors. Liana mortality rates were 172% higher than tree mortality rates, but species-level mortality rates of lianas were similar to trees with 'fast' life-history strategies and both growth forms exhibited similar spatial and size-dependent patterns. The mortality rates of liana saplings (<2.1 cm in diameter), which represent about 50% of liana individuals, decreased with increasing disturbance severity and remained consistently low during post-disturbance stand thinning. In contrast, larger liana individuals and trees of all sizes had elevated mortality rates in response to disturbance and their mortality rates decreased over time since disturbance. Within undisturbed forest patches, liana mortality rates increased with increasing soil fertility in a manner similar to trees. The distinct responses of liana saplings to disturbance appeared to distinguish liana mortality from that of trees, whereas similarities in their patterns of death suggest that there are common drivers of woody plant mortality.

Seeking temporal refugia to heat stress: increasing nocturnal activity despite predation risk.

Flexibility in activity timing may enable organisms to quickly adapt to environmental changes. Under global warming, diurnally adapted endotherms may achieve a better energy balance by shifting their activity towards cooler nocturnal hours. However, this shift may expose animals to new or increased environmental challenges (e.g. increased predation risk, reduced foraging efficiency). We analysed a large dataset of activity data from 47 ibex (Capra ibex) in two protected areas, characterized by varying levels of predation risk (presence versus absence of the wolf-Canis lupus). We found that ibex increased nocturnal activity following warmer days and during brighter nights. Despite the considerable sexual dimorphism typical of this species and the consequent different predation-risk perception, males and females demonstrated consistent responses to heat in both predator-present and predator-absent areas. This supports the hypothesis that shifting activity towards nighttime may be a common strategy adopted by diurnal endotherms in response to global warming. As nowadays different pressures are pushing mammals towards nocturnality, our findings emphasize the urgent need to integrate knowledge of temporal behavioural modifications into management and conservation planning.

Twenty-five years of Open-Top Chambers in tropical environments: where, how, and what are we looking at regarding flora response to climate change?

MAIN CONCLUSION: Open-Top Chambers should be more used in tropical ecosystems to study climate change effects in plants as they are still insufficient to extract plant response patterns in these ecosystems. Understanding flora response to climate change (CC) is critical for predicting future ecosystem dynamics. Open-Top Chambers (OTCs) have been widely used to study the effects of CC on plants and are very popular in temperate ecosystems but are still underused in tropical regions. In this systematic review, we aimed to discuss the use of OTCs in the study of the effects of different agents of climate change on tropical flora by presenting scientometric data, discussing the technical aspects of its use and enumerating some observations on plant response patterns to climatic alterations in the tropics. Our analysis indicated that the bottleneck in choosing an OTC shape is not strictly related to its purpose or the type of parameter modulated; instead, passive or active approaches seem to be a more sensitive point. The common critical point in using this technique in warmer regions is overheating and decoupling, but it can be overcome with simple adaptations and extra features. The most frequently parameter modulated was CO2, followed by O3 and temperature. The plant families with more representatives in the studies analyzed were Fabaceae, Myrtaceae, and Poaceae, and the most represented biome was tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests. In conclusion, OTCs are a valuable and feasible tool to study CC effects on various tropical ecosystems, regardless of structure, active/passive approach, or other technical features. One of the primary advantages of this methodology is its applicability for in situ use, eliminating the need for plant transplantation. We encourage studies using OTC experimental design for plant conservation in the tropics.