Improving inference for nonlinear state-space models of animal population dynamics given biased sequential life stage data.

State-space models (SSMs) are a popular tool for modeling animal abundances. Inference difficulties for simple linear SSMs are well known, particularly in relation to simultaneous estimation of process and observation variances. Several remedies to overcome estimation problems have been studied for relatively simple SSMs, but whether these challenges and proposed remedies apply for nonlinear stage-structured SSMs, an important class of ecological models, is less well understood. Here we identify improvements for inference about nonlinear stage-structured SSMs fit with biased sequential life stage data. Theoretical analyses indicate parameter identifiability requires covariates in the state processes. Simulation studies show that plugging in externally estimated observation variances, as opposed to jointly estimating them with other parameters, reduces bias and standard error of estimates. In contrast to previous results for simple linear SSMs, strong confounding between jointly estimated process and observation variance parameters was not found in the models explored here. However, when observation variance was also estimated in the motivating case study, the resulting process variance estimates were implausibly low (near-zero). As SSMs are used in increasingly complex ways, understanding when inference can be expected to be successful, and what aids it, becomes more important. Our study illustrates (a) the need for relevant process covariates and (b) the benefits of using externally estimated observation variances for inference about nonlinear stage-structured SSMs.

Multiple sub-lethal thresholds for cellular responses to thermal stressors in an estuarine fish.

Understanding physiological limits and the ability to acclimatize to changing conditions will determine whether species will be able to cope with further increases in water temperature. Changes in temperature may be considered to become stressful for an ectotherm when it results in reduced performance, which can lead to fitness level consequences. The relative intensity of the stressor as well as the duration of the exposure to the stressor will determine the response observed. Transcriptomic responses can potentially indicate thresholds where physiological performance begins to decline. An understanding of the cellular shifts throughout the temperature range that an organism experiences in the wild is often lacking, especially for species of conservation concern such as the delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus). We examined the expression of 15 genes that represented cellular responses related to stress, growth, cell proliferation and osmoregulation to show how the response patterns change to acute increases in temperatures that occur throughout the thermal distribution of the species. Several genes showed U-shaped or inverted U-shaped response patterns suggesting the presence of sub-lethal thresholds as temperatures increase. We also highlight the importance of including a temporal component to exposure studies as several genes showed a delay in the recovery to control levels at extreme temperatures. We propose that the non-linear response patterns represent sub-lethal thermal thresholds that can predict the severity of the response to thermal stressors. Identifying these sub-lethal thresholds can help differentiate between responses to routine increases in water temperature and responses that can lead to longer-term fitness impacts.

Effects of high temperatures on threatened estuarine fishes during periods of extreme drought.

Climate change and associated increases in water temperatures may impact physiological performance in ectotherms and exacerbate endangered species declines. We used an integrative approach to assess the impact of elevated water temperature on two fishes of immediate conservation concern in a large estuary system, the threatened longfin smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys) and endangered delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus). Abundances have reached record lows in California, USA, and these populations are at imminent risk of extirpation. California is currently impacted by a severe drought, resulting in high water temperatures, conditions that will become more common as a result of climate change. We exposed fish to environmentally relevant temperatures (14°C and 20°C) and used RNA sequencing to examine the transcriptome-wide responses to elevated water temperature in both species. Consistent with having a lower temperature tolerance, longfin smelt exhibited a pronounced cellular stress response, with an upregulation of heat shock proteins, after exposure to 20°C that was not observed in delta smelt. We detected an increase in metabolic rate in delta smelt at 20°C and increased expression of genes involved in metabolic processes and protein synthesis, patterns not observed in longfin smelt. Through examination of responses across multiple levels of biological organization, and by linking these responses to habitat distributions in the wild, we demonstrate that longfin smelt may be more susceptible than delta smelt to increases in temperatures, and they have little room to tolerate future warming in California. Understanding the species-specific physiological responses of sensitive species to environmental stressors is crucial for conservation efforts and managing aquatic systems globally.

Exposure to permethrin or chlorpyrifos causes differential dose- and time-dependent behavioral effects at early larval stages of an endangered teleost species.

Pyrethroid and organophosphate pesticides are two of the most commonly used classes of insecticide worldwide. At sublethal concentrations, permethrin (a pyrethroid) and chlorpyrifos (an organophosphate) impact behavior in model fish species. We investigated behavioral effects of environmentally relevant concentrations of permethrin or chlorpyrifos on early larval delta smelt Hypomesus transpacificus, a Critically Endangered teleost species endemic to the San Francisco Bay Delta, California, USA. Using a photomotor behavioral assay of oscillating light and dark periods, we measured distance moved, turn angle, meander, angular velocity, rotations, thigmotaxis (time spent in the border versus center), and swim speed duration and frequency. The lowest concentrations of permethrin used in the tests (0.05 and 0.5 µg l-1) caused significant increases in distance moved at 72 and 96 h, respectively. At 48, 72, and 96 h of exposure, 5 µg l-1 of permethrin caused a hyperactive state in which the larvae significantly decreased thigmotaxis, quickly turning in short bouts of activity, characterized by significant increases in rotations and freezing events. Larvae exposed to 0.05 µg l-1 chlorpyrifos significantly increased thigmotaxis at 72 and 96 h. In response to 5 µg l-1 chlorpyrifos, larvae significantly increased velocity at 72 h exposure, and significantly increased freezing events at 96 h. Behavioral data on larval delta smelt exposed to contaminants present in their limited habitat have the potential to aid evaluations of the suitability of spawning and rearing habitats for this endangered species, thus improving conservation management strategies focused on this sensitive life stage.

Bifenthrin exposure causes hyperactivity in early larval stages of an endangered fish species at concentrations that occur during their hatching season.

Bifenthrin is a pyrethroid insecticide commonly used in agricultural and urban sectors, and is found in watersheds worldwide. As a sodium channel blocker, at sublethal concentrations it causes off-target effects, including disruption of calcium signaling and neuronal growth. At the whole organism level, sublethal concentrations of bifenthrin cause behavioral effects in fish species, raising concerns about the neurotoxic properties of the compound on fish populations. Here we describe the application of a high-throughput behavioral system to evaluate contaminant impacts on the sensitive early-life stages of Delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), a critically endangered teleost species endemic to the San Francisco Bay Delta (SFBD), California, USA. Leveraging the natural behavior of early-larval Delta smelt, whereby they increase movement in bright light and decrease movement in the dark, we developed a test using a cycle of light and dark periods in a closed chamber to test hyper- or hypoactivity for this species. We show that early-larval Delta smelt have a significant preference to move toward light, and utilized the behavioral test to evaluate the impact of exposure to bifenthrin at concentrations found in habitats where Delta smelt reportedly spawn, ranging up to concentrations detected in tributaries to these habitats. All tested concentrations of bifenthrin (nominal 2, 10, or 100 ng/L) caused hyperactivity, over a 96 h exposure, with noted significance determined during the light period of the test. To further understand the impact of bifenthrin exposure, expression of a suite of genes relevant to neurodevelopment, the mechanistic target of rapamycin (mTOR) signaling pathway, and biotransformation in exposed larvae were also measured. Following exposure to picomolar concentrations of bifenthrin, expression of genes in the mTOR signaling and neurogenesis pathways were altered alongside behavior. This study demonstrates how light and dark cycle behavioral tests can be used to assess sensitive alterations in swimming activity in Delta smelt at early developmental stages and how gene expression can complement these assays. This approach can be used to assess the impact of multiple compounds that occur within the restricted habitat of Delta smelt, thus having the potential to greatly inform conservation management strategies for this critically sensitive life stage.

Assessments at multiple levels of biological organization allow for an integrative determination of physiological tolerances to turbidity in an endangered fish species.

Turbidity can influence trophic levels by altering species composition and can potentially affect fish feeding strategies and predator-prey interactions. The estuarine turbidity maximum, described as an area of increased suspended particles, phytoplankton and zooplankton, generally represents a zone with higher turbidity and enhanced food sources important for successful feeding and growth in many fish species. The delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) is an endangered, pelagic fish species endemic to the San Francisco Estuary and Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, USA, where it is associated with turbid waters. Turbidity is known to play an important role for the completion of the species' life cycle; however, turbidity ranges in the Delta are broad, and specific requirements for this fish species are still unknown. To evaluate turbidity requirements for early life stages, late-larval delta smelt were maintained at environmentally relevant turbidity levels ranging from 5 to 250 nephelometric turbidity units (NTU) for 24 h, after which a combination of physiological endpoints (molecular biomarkers and cortisol), behavioural indices (feeding) and whole-organism measures (survival) were determined. All endpoints delivered consistent results and identified turbidities between 25 and 80 NTU as preferential. Delta smelt survival rates were highest between 12 and 80 NTU and feeding rates were highest between 25 and 80 NTU. Cortisol levels indicated minimal stress between 35 and 80 NTU and were elevated at low turbidities (5, 12 and 25 NTU). Expression of stress-related genes indicated significant responses for gst, hsp70 and glut2 in high turbidities (250 NTU), and principal component analysis on all measured genes revealed a clustering of 25, 35, 50 and 80 NTU separating the medium-turbidity treatments from low- and high-turbidity treatments. Taken together, these data demonstrate that turbidity levels that are either too low or too high affect delta smelt physiological performance, causing significant effects on overall stress, food intake and mortality. They also highlight the need for turbidity to be considered in habitat and water management decisions.

Sublethal salinity stress contributes to habitat limitation in an endangered estuarine fish.

As global change alters multiple environmental conditions, predicting species' responses can be challenging without understanding how each environmental factor influences organismal performance. Approaches quantifying mechanistic relationships can greatly complement correlative field data, strengthening our abilities to forecast global change impacts. Substantial salinity increases are projected in the San Francisco Estuary, California, due to anthropogenic water diversion and climatic changes, where the critically endangered delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) largely occurs in a low-salinity zone (LSZ), despite their ability to tolerate a much broader salinity range. In this study, we combined molecular and organismal measures to quantify the physiological mechanisms and sublethal responses involved in coping with salinity changes. Delta smelt utilize a suite of conserved molecular mechanisms to rapidly adjust their osmoregulatory physiology in response to salinity changes in estuarine environments. However, these responses can be energetically expensive, and delta smelt body condition was reduced at high salinities. Thus, acclimating to salinities outside the LSZ could impose energetic costs that constrain delta smelt's ability to exploit these habitats. By integrating data across biological levels, we provide key insight into the mechanistic relationships contributing to phenotypic plasticity and distribution limitations and advance the understanding of the molecular osmoregulatory responses in nonmodel estuarine fishes.

Contaminant and food limitation stress in an endangered estuarine fish.

The abundance of Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), a fish species endemic to the upper San Francisco Estuary (SFE), is declining. Several causes for the population decline have been proposed, including food limitation and contaminant effects. Here, using juvenile Delta Smelt collected from throughout their range, we measured a suite of indices across three levels of biological organization (cellular, organ, individual) that reflect fish condition at temporal scales ranging from hours to weeks. Using these indices, the relative conditions of fish collected from five regions in the SFE were compared: Cache Slough, Sacramento River Deep Water Ship Channel, Confluence, Suisun Bay and Suisun Marsh. Fish sampled from Suisun Bay and, to a lesser extent the Confluence, exhibited relatively poor short-term nutritional and growth indices and morphometric condition, while fish from the freshwater regions of the estuary, and Cache Slough in particular, exhibited the most apparent histopathological signs of contaminant exposure. In contrast, fish from the Suisun Marsh region exhibited higher short-term nutrition and growth indices, and better morphometric and histopathological condition. For instance, fish collected from Suisun Marsh had a mean stomach fullness, expressed as a percentage of fish weight, that was 3.4-fold higher than fish collected from Suisun Bay, while also exhibiting an incidence of histopathological lesions that was 11-fold lower than fish collected from Cache Slough. Thus, our findings support the hypothesis that multiple stressors, including food limitation and contaminants, are contributing to the decline of Delta Smelt, and that these stressors influence Delta Smelt heterogeneously across space.

Transcriptomic profiling permits the identification of pollutant sources and effects in ambient water samples.

Contaminant exposure is one possible contributor to population declines of endangered fish species in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Estuary, California, including the endangered delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus). Herein we investigated transcriptional responses in larval delta smelt resulting from exposure to water samples collected at the Department of Water Resources Field Station at Hood, a site of concern, situated upstream of known delta smelt habitat and spawning sites and downstream of the Sacramento Regional Wastewater Treatment Plant (SRWTP). Microarray assessments indicate impacts on energy metabolism, DNA repair mechanisms and RNA processing, the immune system, development and muscle function. Transcription responses of fish exposed to water samples from Hood were compared with exposures to 9% effluent samples from SRWTP, water from the Sacramento River at Garcia Bend (SRGB), upstream of the effluent discharge, and SRGB water spiked with 2mg/L total ammonium (9% effluent equivalent). Results indicate that transcriptomic profiles from Hood are similar to 9% SRWTP effluent and ammonium spiked SRGB water, but significantly different from SRGB. SRGB samples however were also significantly different from laboratory controls, suggesting that SRWTP effluent is not solely responsible for the responses determined at Hood, that ammonium exposure likely enhances the effect of multiple-contaminant exposures, and that the observed mortality at Hood is due to the combination of both effluent discharge and contaminants arising from upstream of the tested sites.