Suicide mortality following the implementation of tobacco packaging and pricing policies in Korea: an interrupted time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: To prevent tobacco use in Korea, the national quitline number was added to tobacco packages in December 2012, tobacco prices were raised by 80% in January 2015, and graphic health warning labels were placed on tobacco packages in December 2016. This study evaluated the association of these tobacco packaging and pricing policies with suicide mortality in Korea. METHODS: Monthly mortality from suicide was obtained from Cause-of-Death Statistics in Korea from December 2007 to December 2019. Interrupted time-series analysis was performed using segmented Poisson regression models. Relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated adjusted for suicide prevention strategies. RESULTS: Suicide mortality was 20 per 1,000,000 in December 2007 and showed a downward trend over the study period. After the implementation of tobacco packaging and pricing policies, suicide mortality immediately declined by - 0.09 percent points (95% CI = - 0.19 to 0.01; P > 0.05) for the national quitline number, - 0.22 percent points (95% CI = - 0.35 to - 0.09; P < 0.01) for tobacco prices, and - 0.30 percent points (95% CI = - 0.49 to - 0.11; P < 0.01) for graphic health warning labels. The corresponding RRs for these post-implementation changes compared with the pre-implementation level were 0.91 (95% CI = 0.83 to 1.00), 0.80 (95% CI = 0.70 to 0.91), and 0.74 (95% CI = 0.61 to 0.90), respectively. Significant associations between tobacco control policies and suicide mortality were observed even when stratified by sex and region. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study provide new evidence for an association between tobacco control policies and deaths by suicide. An array of effective tobacco control policies should be considered for prevention programs targeting suicide.

Temporal trends in hemodialysis access creation during the fistula first era.

OBJECTIVE: Although forearm arteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) are the preferred initial vascular access for hemodialysis based on national guidelines, there are no population-level studies evaluating trends in creation of forearm vs upper arm AVFs and arteriovenous grafts (AVGs). The purpose of this study was to report temporal trends in first-time permanent hemodialysis access type, and to assess the effect of national initiatives on rates of AVF placement. METHODS: Retrospective cross-sectional study (2012-2022) utilizing the Vascular Quality Initiative database. All patients older than 18 years with creation of first-time upper extremity surgical hemodialysis access were included. Anatomic location of the AVF or AVG (forearm vs upper arm) was defined based on inflow artery, outflow vein, and presumed cannulation zone. Primary analysis examined temporal trends in rates of forearm vs upper arm AVFs and AVGs using time series analyses (modified Mann-Kendall test). Subgroup analyses examined rates of access configuration stratified by age, sex, race, dialysis, and socioeconomic status. Interrupted time series analysis was performed to assess the effect of the 2015 Fistula First Catheter Last initiative on rates of AVFs. RESULTS: Of the 52,170 accesses, 57.9% were upper arm AVFs, 25.2% were forearm AVFs, 15.4% were upper arm AVGs, and 1.5% were forearm AVGs. From 2012 to 2022, there was no significant change in overall rates of forearm or upper arm AVFs. There was a numerical increase in upper arm AVGs (13.9 to 18.2 per 100; P = .09), whereas forearm AVGs significantly declined (1.8 to 0.7 per 100; P = .02). In subgroup analyses, we observed a decrease in forearm AVFs among men (33.1 to 28.7 per 100; P = .04) and disadvantaged (Area Deprivation Index percentile ≥50) patients (29.0 to 20.7 per 100; P = .04), whereas female (17.2 to 23.1 per 100; P = .03), Black (15.6 to 24.5 per 100; P < .01), elderly (age ≥80 years) (18.7 to 32.5 per 100; P < .01), and disadvantaged (13.6 to 20.5 per 100; P < .01) patients had a significant increase in upper arm AVGs. The Fistula First Catheter Last initiative had no effect on the rate of AVF placement (83.2 to 83.7 per 100; P=.37). CONCLUSIONS: Despite national initiatives to promote autogenous vascular access, the rates of first-time AVFs have remained relatively constant, with forearm AVFs only representing one-quarter of all permanent surgical accesses. Furthermore, elderly, Black, female, and disadvantaged patients saw an increase in upper arm AVGs. Further efforts to elucidate factors associated with forearm AVF placement, as well as potential physician, center, and regional variation is warranted.

Effect of the second and third COVID-19 pandemic waves on routine outpatient malaria indicators and case management practices in Uganda: an interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Reports on the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the quality of malaria care and burden in sub Saharan Africa have provided a mixed picture to date. The impact of the 2nd (Delta) and 3rd (Omicron) COVID-19 waves on outpatient malaria indicators and case management practices was assessed at three public health facilities with varying malaria transmission intensities in Uganda. METHODS: Individual level data from all patients presenting to the out-patient departments (OPD) of the three facilities (Kasambya, Walukuba and Lumino) between January 2019 and February 2022 were included in the analysis. Outcomes of interest included total number of outpatient (OPD) visits, proportion of patients suspected to have malaria, proportion of suspected malaria cases tested with a malaria diagnostic test, test positivity rates (TPR) and proportion of malaria cases prescribed artemether-lumefantrine (AL). Using the pre-COVID-19 trends between January 2019 and February 2020, interrupted time series analysis was used to predict the expected trends for these study outcomes during the 2nd wave (May 2021-August 2021) and 3rd wave (November 2021-February 2022). The observed trends of the study outcomes were compared with the expected trends. RESULTS: There were no significant differences between the observed versus expected overall outpatient visits in the 2nd wave, however, a significant decline in OPD attendance was observed during the 3rd wave (15,101 vs 31,154; incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.48 [0.41-0.56]). No significant differences in the overall observed versus expected proportions of suspected malaria cases and test positivity rates in both COVID waves. However, a significant decrease in the overall proportion of suspected malaria cases tested with a malaria diagnostic test was observed during the 3rd wave (99.86% vs 99.99%; relative percent ratio [RPR] = 0.99 [0.99-0.99]). Finally, a significant decline in the overall proportion of malaria cases prescribed AL was observed during the 2nd wave (94.99% vs 99.85%; RPR = 0.95 [0.92-0.98]) but not the 3rd wave. CONCLUSION: Significant declines in OPD attendance and suspected malaria cases tested with malaria diagnostic test were observed during the 3rd COVID-19 wave, while AL prescription significantly reduced during the 2nd COVID-19 wave. These findings add to the body of knowledge highlighting the adverse impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the malaria which could explain the increase in the malaria burden observed during this period.

Impact of codeine rescheduling on prescribing of codeine and other opioids: Interrupted time series analyses using Australian general practice data.

AIMS: We aimed to determine the impact of codeine rescheduling on prescribing of codeine and other opioids, with a focus on demographic and diagnoses associated with codeine prescribing before and after rescheduling of codeine to prescription-only in February 2018. METHODS: We used interrupted time series analysis (February 2016-February 2020) and probit regression to examine prescribing of codeine and other opioids according to primary care data from 464 general practice clinics in Victoria, Australia. RESULTS: The rate of codeine prescribing increased in the month following rescheduling (additional 76 people/10000, 95% confidence interval [CI] 49-103), then declined to baseline rates (slope -2.02, 95% CI 3.79, -0.25). Prescribing of other opioids did not change. Post rescheduling, females were more likely to receive codeine prescriptions compared to males (ß = 0.094, 95% CI 0.08-0.108) and those aged 70-79 years were more likely to receive codeine compared to those aged <30 years. Those residing in the least disadvantaged areas had a greater probability of being prescribed codeine than those in more disadvantaged areas after rescheduling (ß = 0.154, 95% CI 0.129-0.179). A documented mental health diagnosis (ß = 0.067, 95% CI 0.052-0.082) or migraine diagnosis (ß = 0.057, 95% CI 0.037-0.078) was associated with increased likelihood of receiving a codeine prescription after rescheduling compared to before in contrast to those without such a diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Codeine rescheduling did not result in a sustained increase in codeine prescribing nor a change in the prescribing of other opioids. Patient factors associated with increased codeine prescribing after compared to before rescheduling included female sex, older age, migraine diagnosis and comorbid mental health conditions. REGISTRATION: EU PAS Register (EUPAS43218).

Impact of narcotics information management system on inappropriate benzodiazepine receptor agonist prescriptions: A quasi-experimental analysis in South Korea.

AIMS: The South Korean government implemented the narcotics information management system (NIMS) on 18 May 2018 to manage benzodiazepine receptor agonists (BzRAs) and narcotics effectively and establish a reporting mechanism for these drugs. This study assessed the effects of NIMS on inappropriate use of BzRAs. METHODS: Using national patient sample data from 2016 to 2020, we analysed adult outpatients who were prescribed oral BzRAs. We conducted a time series and segmented regression analysis using selected indicators to analyse the monthly variations related to the inappropriate use of these medications. RESULTS: The study revealed no significant changes in the indicators of inappropriate BzRA use following the NIMS implementation. Contrary to expectations, there was a significant increase in the proportion of patients exceeding defined daily dose (DDD) and in those receiving concurrent prescriptions of multiple BzRAs, following the implementation of NIMS. The immediate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was an increase in DDD exceedance; however, overall, this did not significantly affect BzRA use. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of NIMS did not significantly enhance the management of BzRA misuse. Additional measures, including continuous monitoring, system improvements and comprehensive education for prescribers and patients, are recommended to ensure the appropriate use of psychotropic medications.

Impact of the pandemic on surgical oncology in Piedmont, Italy: A retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND AND METHODS: This retrospective observational study analyzes how the COVID-19 pandemic affected surgical oncology healthcare in a large sample from Piedmont, Northern Italy. Patients admitted for regular hospitalization were included (n = 99 651). Data from 2020 were compared to the averages from 2016 to 2019, stratified by tumor site, year, month, and admission method, using interrupted time series analysis post-March 2020. RESULTS: In 2020, oncological surgeries decreased by 12.3% (n = 17 923) compared to the 2016-2019 average (n = 20 432), notably dropping post-March (incidence rate ratio = 0.858; p < 0.001). The greatest reduction was observed for breast (-19.2%), colon (-18.2%), bladder (-17.5%), kidney (-14.2%), and prostate (-14%) surgeries. There was a huge reduction in nonemergency admissions (-13.6%), especially for colon (-23.8%), breast (-19.4%), and bladder (-18.7%). The proportion of hospitalizations with emergency access increased (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic led to a significant decrease in cancer surgeries in Piedmont in 2020, with an increase in the proportion of admissions through emergency access. DISCUSSION: The research provides valuable insights for comparing data with other regions and evaluating the effectiveness of efforts to recover lost surgical procedures. These findings can be useful to policymakers in developing coordinated measures and more efficient access strategies to healthcare services in any future emergency situations.

Population-level changes in perinatal death for pregnancies prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic: A pregnancy cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Results of population-level studies examining the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the risks of perinatal death have varied considerably. OBJECTIVES: To explore trends in the risk of perinatal death among pregnancies beginning prior to and during the pandemic using a pregnancy cohort approach. METHODS: This secondary analysis included data from singleton pregnancies ≥20 weeks' gestation in Alberta, Canada, beginning between 5 March 2017 and 4 March 2021. Perinatal death (i.e. stillbirth or neonatal death) was the primary outcome considered. The risk of this outcome was calculated for pregnancies with varying gestational overlap with the pandemic (i.e. none, 0-20 weeks, entire pregnancy). Interrupted time series analysis was used to further determine temporal trends in the outcome by time period of interest. RESULTS: There were 190,853 pregnancies during the analysis period. Overall, the risk of perinatal death decreased with increasing levels of pandemic exposure; this outcome was experienced in 1.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.9, 1.0), 0.9% (95% CI 0.8, 1.1) and 0.8% (95% CI 0.7, 0.9) of pregnancies with no overlap, partial overlap and complete pandemic overlap respectively. Pregnancies beginning during the pandemic that had high antepartum risk scores less frequently led to perinatal death compared to those beginning prior; 3.3% (95% CI 2.7, 3.9) versus 5.7% (95% CI 5.0, 6.5) respectively. Interrupted time-series analysis revealed a decreasing temporal trend in perinatal death for pregnancies beginning ≤40 weeks prior to the start of the COVID-19 pandemic (i.e. with pandemic exposure), with no trend for pregnancies beginning >40 weeks pre-pandemic (i.e. no pandemic exposure). CONCLUSION: We observed a decrease in perinatal death for pregnancies overlapping with the COVID-19 pandemic in Alberta, particularly among those at high risk of these outcomes. Specific pandemic control measures and government response programmes in our setting may have contributed to this finding.

Drug utilisation in children and adolescents before and after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic: Interrupted time-series analyses in three European countries.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected children and adolescents in several ways, including worsened mental health, improvement of asthma, and increases in diabetes ketoacidosis. Less is known about how medication use in children and adolescents has been affected by the pandemic. OBJECTIVES: To explore how the COVID-19 pandemic affected drug utilisation in children and adolescents in Norway, Sweden, and Italy, by child age. METHODS: We conducted a longitudinal drug utilisation study among all children and adolescents (<18 years old) in Norway and Sweden and a nationwide paediatric database covering 3% of the paediatric population in Italy. We conducted an interrupted time-series analysis from January 2018 to December 2021, with March 2020 as the interruption point. Dispensing or prescription rates of antidepressants, anxiolytics, sleep medications, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) medications, insulin, and asthma medications were examined. RESULTS: The study population in January 2018 consisted of 3,455,521 children and adolescents (136,188 from Italy, 1,160,431 from Norway, and 2,158,902 from Sweden). For sleep medications and insulin, there were only minor changes in level or trend in some age groups after March 2020. For asthma medications, the pandemic was associated with an immediate decrease in dispensing in Norway and Sweden (range of change in level: -19.2 to -3.7 dispensings per 1000 person-months), and an increasing trend in all countries afterward (range of change in trend: 0.3-6.4 dispensings per 1000 person-months), especially for the youngest age groups. Among adolescents, the pandemic was associated with an increased trend for ADHD medications, antidepressants, and anxiolytics in Norway and Sweden, but not in Italy. CONCLUSIONS: The increasing trend of psychotropic medication dispensing, especially among adolescents after the start of the pandemic, is concerning and should be investigated further. Aside from a temporary effect on asthma medication dispensing, the pandemic did not greatly affect the dispensing of the medications investigated.

Changes in surgery rates among hospitalized patients with inflammatory bowel disease in Japan from 2015 to 2019: A nationwide administrative database analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Treatment of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), consisting of ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD), has advanced with the application of biologics or Janus kinase inhibitor (JAKi); however, some patients still need surgery. We assessed time trends of surgery and biologics or JAKi variety in Japan. METHODS: Patients hospitalized due to IBD were analyzed using Diagnosis Procedure Combination data between 2015 and 2019. Longitudinal trend analysis was performed for demographics, and interrupted time-series analysis was performed to examine the association between surgery rates and an increase in the types of biologics or JAKi. RESULTS: Totally, 37 867 cases with UC and 35 493 cases with CD were analyzed. Over 5 years, the surgery rate decreased in both UC and CD. The proportion of biologics and JAKi usage increased in UC and stabilized in CD. Between decreasing surgery and expanding treatment options of biologic or JAKi, interrupted time-series analysis results showed no significant correlation (level change in UC, -1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.11 to -0.16, P = 0.0235; slope change in UC, -0.05, 95% CI: -0.26 to 0.16, P = 0.6372; level change in CD, -0.55, 95% CI: -1.82 to 0.71, P = 0.3815; slope change in CD, -0.22, 95% CI: -0.63 to 0.19, P = 0.2892). CONCLUSIONS: In Japan, from 2015 to 2019, the use of biologics or JAKi increased for UC and slightly decreased for CD, while the number of surgeries decreased in both. Our findings suggest that more widespread use of biologics or JAKi therapy could reduce surgeries in patients with IBD.

Potential impact of blood cholesterol guidelines on statin treatment in the U.S. population using interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: The 2013 ACC/AHA Guideline was a paradigm shift in lipid management and identified the four statin-benefit groups. Many have studied the guideline's potential impact, but few have investigated its potential long-term impact on MACE. Furthermore, most studies also ignored the confounding effect from the earlier release of generic atorvastatin in Dec 2011. METHODS: To evaluate the potential (long-term) impact of the 2013 ACC/AHA Guideline release in Nov 2013 in the U.S., we investigated the association of the 2013 ACC/AHA Guideline with the trend changes in 5-Year MACE survival and three other statin-related outcomes (statin use, optimal statin use, and statin adherence) while controlling for generic atorvastatin availability using interrupted time series analysis, called the Chow's test. Specifically, we conducted a retrospective study using U.S. nationwide de-identified claims and electronic health records from Optum Labs Database Warehouse (OLDW) to follow the trends of 5-Year MACE survival and statin-related outcomes among four statin-benefit groups that were identified in the 2013 ACC/AHA Guideline. Then, Chow's test was used to discern trend changes between generic atorvastatin availability and guideline potential impact. RESULTS: 197,021 patients were included (ASCVD: 19,060; High-LDL: 33,907; Diabetes: 138,159; High-ASCVD-Risk: 5,895). After the guideline release, the long-term trend (slope) of 5-Year MACE Survival for the Diabetes group improved significantly (P = 0.002). Optimal statin use for the ASCVD group also showed immediate improvement (intercept) and long-term positive changes (slope) after the release (P < 0.001). Statin uses did not have significant trend changes and statin adherence remained unchanged in all statin-benefit groups. Although no other statistically significant trend changes were found, overall positive trend change or no changes were observed after the 2013 ACC/AHA Guideline release. CONCLUSIONS: The 2013 ACA/AHA Guideline release is associated with trend improvements in the long-term MACE Survival for Diabetes group and optimal statin use for ASCVD group. These significant associations might indicate a potential positive long-term impact of the 2013 ACA/AHA Guideline on better health outcomes for primary prevention groups and an immediate potential impact on statin prescribing behaviors in higher-at-risk groups. However, further investigation is required to confirm the causal effect of the 2013 ACA/AHA Guideline.

Effectiveness of the Coordinated Return to Work model after orthopaedic surgery for lumbar discectomy and hip and knee arthroplasty: a register-based study.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined the effectiveness of an individualised Coordinated Return to Work (CRtW) model on the length of the return to work (RTW) period compared with a standard prescription of 2-3 months RTW during recovery after lumbar discectomy and hip and knee arthroplasty among Finnish working-age population. METHODS: Cohorts on patients aged 18-65 years old with lumbar discectomy or hip or knee arthroplasty were extracted from the electronic health records of eight Finnish hospital districts in 2015-2021 and compiled with retirement and sickness benefits. The overall effect of the CRtW model on the average RTW period was calculated as a weighted average of area-specific mean differences in RTW periods between 1 year before and 1 year after the implementation. Longer-term effects of the model were examined with an interrupted time series design estimated with a segmented regression model. RESULTS: During the first year of the CRtW model, the average RTW period shortened by 9.1 days (95% CI 4.1 to 14.1) for hip arthroplasty and 14.4 days (95% CI 7.5 to 21.3) for knee arthroplasty. The observed differences were sustained over longer follow-up times. For lumbar discectomy, the first-year decrease was not statistically significant, but the average RTW had shortened by 36.2 days (95% CI 33.8 to 38.5) after 4.5 years. CONCLUSIONS: The CRtW model shortened average RTW periods among working-age people during the recovery period. Further research with larger samples and longer follow-up times is needed to ensure the effectiveness of the model as a part of the Finnish healthcare system.

Impact of Regulatory Interventions on Ulipristal Acetate 5 mg (Esmya) Use in Spain: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis.

PURPOSE: Since late 2017, the use of ulipristal acetate 5 mg (UPA; Proprietary name: Esmya) has been under review in the European Union, due to an emerging hepatic risk. In February 2018 and in July 2018, the Spanish Agency of Medicines and Medical Devices and the marketing authorization holder put two risk minimization measures (RMM) in place, in order to inform about new safety information and to mitigate this risk. This study aims to assess RMM effectiveness in Spain, by performing an interrupted time-series (ITS) analyses, between 2014 and 2019. METHOD: Two quasi-experimental ITS analyses to examine the use of UPA before and after the RMM release were performed: (a) an ecological study using aggregated data from a drug consumption database; and (b) a study using primary healthcare data gathered from electronic clinical records. RESULTS: Regulatory interventions were associated with an immediate and significant decrease level of DID (the number of DDD dispensed per 100 000 inhabitants and day) and incidence. The DID was 70% less than expected 12 months after the interventions. This value was 59% for the incidence. However, a change in the slope was not observed and the use started rising again in the last segment of the study period. CONCLUSION: Despite RMM had an immediate strong impact on UPA use, the last segment upward trend in the long-term might have been affected by the lack of comparable therapeutic alternatives. Further studies should be performed to confirm the increase trend observed and analyze subsequent measures and additional data.

The Effects of Removing the Requirement for Prior Reimbursement Approval on Anticoagulant Use in Ireland: A Cross-Sectional Study.

PURPOSE: Prior approval for reimbursement is a policy of cost containment while ensuring oversight and governance of medicines. It has been employed in Ireland to address financial challenges due to the shift from warfarin to direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). Studies assessing the effectiveness of this policy are limited. Thus, we aimed to examine the effectiveness of prior approval for reimbursement of DOACs (apixaban, rivaroxaban) as a cost containment policy in Ireland. METHODS: The Irish Health Service Executive-Primary Care Reimbursement Service database was used in this cross-sectional study. We examined the prescribing frequencies and associated costs of the oral anticoagulants; [(OACs) apixaban, rivaroxaban and warfarin] listed in the top 100 most frequently prescribed drugs, between 2018 and 2021. Time series negative binomial regression was used to assess the impact of removing the approval requirement of apixaban in September 2019 followed by the other DOACs in November 2020. RESULTS: The prescribing frequency of OACs increased by almost 20% from 2018 to 2021. This study showed there were significant differences in the proportion of OACs prescribed among the Community Drug Schemes. A statistically significant decreased use of apixaban (< 1%, p < 0.05) occurred when prior approval was removed for all DOACs. CONCLUSIONS: The removal of prior approval for reimbursement of DOACs in Ireland had a minimal impact on the prescribing frequency trends of the OACs. Future use of these potentially useful policies by healthcare systems requires careful consideration of drug type, approval criteria and length of time the policy remains in place to minimise any negative effects associated with their use.

Interrupted time series analysis of chronic periodontitis-related procedures before and after the scaling reimbursement policy in Korea.

AIM: To study the use of a quasi-experimental design to assess the effects of scaling reimbursement policies on the incidence of chronic-periodontitis procedures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Interrupted time series analysis was used to compare the effects before and after policy implementation using data on the number of periodontitis-related procedures from the Korean National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort (n = 740,467) and the Health Screening Cohort (n = 337,904). Periodontitis-related procedures with diagnosis codes were categorized into basic (scaling or root planing), intermediate (subgingival curettage) and advanced (tooth extraction, periodontal flap surgery, bone grafting for alveolar bone defects or guided tissue regeneration). Subjects' demographics and comorbidities were considered. The incidence rate of immediate changes and gradual effects before and after policy implementation was assessed. RESULTS: Following the policy implementation from July 2013, an immediate increase was observed in total and basic procedures. No significant changes were noted in intermediate and advanced procedures initially. A decrease in the slope of intermediate procedures was observed in both databases. Advanced procedures showed varied trends, with no change in the National Sample Cohort but an increase in the Health Screening Cohort, particularly among subjects with comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: Following the new policy implementation, the number of intermediate procedures decreased while the number of advanced procedures increased, especially among patients with comorbidities. These findings offer valuable insights on policy evaluation.

The impact of incentive scheme on rural healthcare workforce availability: a case study of Kazakhstan.

BACKGROUND: During the 1990-2000, Kazakhstan experienced a decline in the number of healthcare professionals working in rural areas. Since 2009, the national government has been implementing financial incentives to encourage healthcare professionals to relocate to rural areas. This study aims to investigate the temporal and spatial patterns in the distribution of the rural healthcare workforce and evaluate the impact of this incentive scheme. METHODS: Interrupted Time Series Analysis using ARIMA models and Difference in Differences analyzes were conducted to examine the impact of the incentive scheme on the density of different categories of the healthcare workforce in rural Kazakhstan in the period from 2009 to 2020. RESULTS: There was a significant increase in the number of rural healthcare professionals from 2009 to 2020 in comparison to the period from 1998 to 2008. However, this increase was less pronounced in per capita terms. Moreover, a decline in the density of internists and pediatricians was observed. There is substantial variation in the density of rural nurses and physicians across different regions of Kazakhstan. The incentive scheme introduced in 2009 by the government of Kazakhstan included a one-time allowance and housing incentive. This scheme was found to have contributed insignificantly to the observed increase in the number of rural healthcare professionals. CONCLUSION: Future research should be undertaken to examine the impact made by the incentive scheme on other medical subspecialties, particularly primary practitioners. Addressing the shortage of healthcare workers in rural areas is a complex issue that requires a multifaceted approach. Aside from financial incentives, other policies could be considered to increase relocation and improve the retention of healthcare professionals in rural areas.

Evaluating feedback reports to support documentation of veterans' care preferences in home based primary care.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the effectiveness of delivering feedback reports to increase completion of LST notes among VA Home Based Primary Care (HBPC) teams. The Life Sustaining Treatment Decisions Initiative (LSTDI) was implemented throughout the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) in the United States in 2017 to ensure that seriously ill Veterans have care goals and LST decisions elicited and documented. METHODS: We distributed monthly feedback reports summarizing LST template completion rates to 13 HBPC intervention sites between October 2018 and February 2020 as the sole implementation strategy. We used principal component analyses to match intervention to 26 comparison sites and used interrupted time series/segmented regression analyses to evaluate the differences in LST template completion rates between intervention and comparison sites. Data were extracted from national databases for VA HBPC in addition to interviews and surveys in a mixed methods process evaluation. RESULTS: LST template completion rose from 6.3 to 41.9% across both intervention and comparison HBPC teams between March 1, 2018, and February 26, 2020. There were no statistically significant differences for intervention sites that received feedback reports. CONCLUSIONS: Feedback reports did not increase documentation of LST preferences for Veterans at intervention compared with comparison sites. Observed increases in completion rates across intervention and comparison sites can likely be attributed to implementation strategies used nationally as part of the national roll-out of the LSTDI. Our results suggest that feedback reports alone were not an effective implementation strategy to augment national implementation strategies in HBPC teams.

Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on utilization of essential health services in Iran evidence from an interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 disrupted the provision of essential health services in numerous countries, potentially leading to outbreaks of deadly diseases. This study aims to investigate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the utilization of essential health services in Iran. METHODS: An analytical cross-sectional study was conducted using interrupted time series (ITS) analysis. Data about five indicators, including 'childhood vaccination, infant care, hypertension screening, diabetes screening, and breast cancer screening,' were obtained from the electronic health record System in two-time intervals: 15 months before (November 2018 to January 2020) and 15 months after (January 2020 to May 2021) the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The data were analyzed by utilizing ITS. In addition, a Poisson model was employed due to the usage of count data. The Durbin-Watson (DW) test was used to identify the presence of lag-1 autocorrelation in the time series data. All statistical analysis was performed using R 4.3.1 software, considering a 5% significance level. RESULTS: The ITS analysis showed that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected the utilization of all essential health services (P < 0.0001). The utilization of hypertension screening (RR = 0.51, p < 0.001), diabetes screening (RR = 0.884, p < 0.001), breast cancer screening (RR = 0.435, p < 0.001), childhood vaccination (IRR = 0.947, p < 0.001), and infant care (RR = 1.666, p < 0.001), exhibited a significant decrease in the short term following the pandemic (P < 0.0001). However, the long-term trend for all service utilization, except breast cancer screening (IRR = 0.952, p < 0.001), demonstrated a significant increase. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic affected utilization of essential health care in Iran. It is imperative to utilize this evidence to develop policies that will be translated into targeted planning and implementation to sustain provision and utilization of essential health services during public health emergencies. It is also vital to raise awareness and public knowledge regarding the consequences of interruptions in essential health services. In addition, it is important to identify the supply- and demand-side factors contributing to these disruptions.

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare utilization among older adults with cardiovascular diseases and multimorbidity in Indonesia: an interrupted time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted healthcare utilization globally, but little is known about the effects among patients with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and other multimorbidities. This study analyzed the impacts of COVID-19 on healthcare utilization for patients aged 30 years and older with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) with or without other chronic disease comorbidities in Indonesia. METHODS: We designed a retrospective cohort study based on the Indonesian National Health Insurance (NHI) sample data from 2016-2020. We defined healthcare utilization as monthly outpatient and inpatient visits related to chronic diseases at the hospital and primary healthcare levels per 10,000 NHI members. We used interrupted time series analysis to evaluate how the healthcare utilization patterns had changed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: Overall, hospital outpatient visits decreased by 39% when the pandemic occurred (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.48,0.76), inpatient visits by 28% (95% CI: 0.62,0.83), and primary healthcare visits by 34% (95% CI:0.55, 0.81). For patients with CVDs and multimorbidity, hospital outpatient and inpatient visit rates were reduced by 36% and 38%, respectively and primary healthcare visits by 32%. Some insignificant differences in the reduction of out-and inpatient visits were observed across diagnosis groups and regions. CONCLUSION: Healthcare utilization among patients with chronic diseases decreased significantly during COVID-19 and consistently across different chronic diseases and regions. To cope with the unmet needs of healthcare utilization in the context of the pandemic, the healthcare system needs to be strengthened to cater to the needs of the population-at-risk, especially for patients with CVDs and multimorbidity.

The impact of China's universal two-child policy on total, preterm, and multiple births: a nationwide interrupted time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although years have passed since the implementation of China's universal two-child policy, the effectiveness of this policy remains unclear. To address this knowledge gap, we, here, assessed the impact of the two-child policy on total live births, preterm births, and multiple live births. METHODS: Data identifying pregnancies resulting in at least one live birth between April 1 2013 and December 31 2018 were collected from the Hospital Quality Monitoring System database. Using an interrupted time-series analysis, we estimated immediate level changes and long-term trends in total, preterm (birth before 37 weeks' gestation), and multiple live births that had occurred after July 2016, when the universal two-child policy had taken effect. RESULTS: A total of 8,273,622 live births were reported during the study time frame. The number of live births (p = 0.277), preterm births (p = 0.052), and multiple births (p = 0.856) per month slightly increased immediately after July 2016, but these increases did not meet statistical significance. Further, all three outcomes showed a significant downward trend that lasted until the end of 2018 (p < 0.0001 for all). Among all live births, the percentage of preterm births remained stable (p = 0.101), while the percentage of multiple live births that were preterm significantly increased (trend change = 0.21% per month, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.28, p < 0.0001). The percentage of live multiple births among all live births significantly decreased (p for trend = 0.0039). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our data reveal a transient baby boom, as well as an increase in the proportion of live multiple births that were preterm, after China's two-child policy took effect. The latter should be noted by healthcare professionals due to the high risk of complications and special medical care required by preterm babies.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on antidepressant consumption in the Central region of Portugal: interrupted time series.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the impact of the pandemic on the consumption of antidepressive agents in Central Portugal. METHODS: To estimate the causal effect of the pandemic an interrupted time series analysis was conducted. Data of antidepressant drugs monthly dispensed in community pharmacies between Jan-2010 and Dec-2021 were provided by the regional Health Administration. Anti-Parkinson dopaminergic agents and statins, theoretically not influenced by COVID-19 pandemics, were used as comparator series. The number of packages was converted into defined daily doses and presented as defined daily doses/1000 inhabitants/day. A Bayesian structural time-series model with CausalImpact on R/RStudio was used to predict the counterfactual. Analyses with different geographical granularity (9 sub-regions and 78 municipalities) were performed. RESULTS: When compared to counterfactual, regional consumption non-significantly increased after the pandemic declaration, with a relative effect of + 1.30% [95%CI -1.6%:4.2%]. When increasing the granularity, differences appeared between sub-region with significant increases in Baixo Mondego + 6.5% [1.4%:11.0%], Guarda + 4.4% [1.1%:7.7%] or Cova da Beira + 4.1% [0.17%:8.3%], but non-significant variation in the remaining 6 sub-regions. Differences are more obvious at municipality level, ranging from increases of + 37.00% [32.00%:42.00%] to decreases of -11.00% [-17.00%:-4.20%]. Relative impact positively correlated with percentage of elderly in the municipality (r = 0.301; p = 0.007), and negatively with population density (r=-0.243; p = 0.032). No other predicting variables were found. CONCLUSION: Antidepressant consumption suffered very slight variations at regional level after the COVID-19 pandemic declaration. Analysis with higher granularity allowed identifying municipalities with higher impact (increase or decrease). The absence of clear association patterns suggests other causal hypotheses of the differences.