The origins of unpredictability in life outcome prediction tasks.

Why are some life outcomes difficult to predict? We investigated this question through in-depth qualitative interviews with 40 families sampled from a multidecade longitudinal study. Our sampling and interviewing process was informed by the earlier efforts of hundreds of researchers to predict life outcomes for participants in this study. The qualitative evidence we uncovered in these interviews combined with a mathematical decomposition of prediction error led us to create a conceptual framework. Our specific evidence and our more general framework suggest that unpredictability should be expected in many life outcome prediction tasks, even in the presence of complex algorithms and large datasets. Our work provides a foundation for future empirical and theoretical work on unpredictability in human lives.

Benefits and trade-offs of optimizing global land use for food, water, and carbon.

Current large-scale patterns of land use reflect history, local traditions, and production costs, much more so than they reflect biophysical potential or global supply and demand for food and freshwater, or-more recently-climate change mitigation. We quantified alternative land-use allocations that consider trade-offs for these demands by combining a dynamic vegetation model and an optimization algorithm to determine Pareto-optimal land-use allocations under changing climate conditions in 2090-2099 and alternatively in 2033-2042. These form the outer bounds of the option space for global land-use transformation. Results show a potential to increase all three indicators (+83% in crop production, +8% in available runoff, and +3% in carbon storage globally) compared to the current land-use configuration, with clear land-use priority areas: Tropical and boreal forests were preserved, crops were produced in temperate regions, and pastures were preferentially allocated in semiarid grasslands and savannas. Transformations toward optimal land-use patterns would imply extensive reconfigurations and changes in land management, but the required annual land-use changes were nevertheless of similar magnitude as those suggested by established land-use change scenarios. The optimization results clearly show that large benefits could be achieved when land use is reconsidered under a "global supply" perspective with a regional focus that differs across the world's regions in order to achieve the supply of key ecosystem services under the emerging global pressures.

Unraveling the Enigma of Organismal Death: Insights, Implications, and Unexplored Frontiers.

Significant knowledge gaps exist regarding the responses of cells, tissues, and organs to organismal death. Examining the survival mechanisms influenced by metabolism and environment, this research has the potential to transform regenerative medicine, redefine legal death, and provide insights into life's physiological limits, paralleling inquiries in embryogenesis.

Multiple imputation of more than one environmental exposure with nondifferential measurement error.

Measurement error is common in environmental epidemiologic studies, but methods for correcting measurement error in regression models with multiple environmental exposures as covariates have not been well investigated. We consider a multiple imputation approach, combining external or internal calibration samples that contain information on both true and error-prone exposures with the main study data of multiple exposures measured with error. We propose a constrained chained equations multiple imputation (CEMI) algorithm that places constraints on the imputation model parameters in the chained equations imputation based on the assumptions of strong nondifferential measurement error. We also extend the constrained CEMI method to accommodate nondetects in the error-prone exposures in the main study data. We estimate the variance of the regression coefficients using the bootstrap with two imputations of each bootstrapped sample. The constrained CEMI method is shown by simulations to outperform existing methods, namely the method that ignores measurement error, classical calibration, and regression prediction, yielding estimated regression coefficients with smaller bias and confidence intervals with coverage close to the nominal level. We apply the proposed method to the Neighborhood Asthma and Allergy Study to investigate the associations between the concentrations of multiple indoor allergens and the fractional exhaled nitric oxide level among asthmatic children in New York City. The constrained CEMI method can be implemented by imposing constraints on the imputation matrix using the mice and bootImpute packages in R.

Thermodynamic limitations on brain oxygen metabolism: physiological implications.

Recent thermodynamic modelling indicates that maintaining the brain tissue ratio of O2 to CO2 (abbreviated tissue O2 /CO2 ) is critical for preserving the entropy increase available from oxidative metabolism of glucose, with a fall of that available entropy leading to a reduction of the phosphorylation potential and impairment of brain energy metabolism. This provides a novel perspective for understanding physiological responses under different conditions in terms of preserving tissue O2 /CO2 . To enable estimation of tissue O2 /CO2 in the human brain, a detailed mathematical model of O2 and CO2 transport was developed, and applied to reported physiological responses to different challenges, asking: how well is tissue O2 /CO2 preserved? Reported experimental results for increased neural activity, hypercapnia and hypoxia due to high altitude are consistent with preserving tissue O2 /CO2 . The results highlight two physiological mechanisms that control tissue O2 /CO2 : cerebral blood flow, which modulates tissue O2 ; and ventilation rate, which modulates tissue CO2 . The hypoxia modelling focused on humans at high altitude, including acclimatized lowlanders and Tibetan and Andean adapted populations, with a primary finding that decreasing CO2 by increasing ventilation rate is more effective for preserving tissue O2 /CO2 than increasing blood haemoglobin content to maintain O2 delivery to tissue. This work focused on the function served by particular physiological responses, and the underlying mechanisms require further investigation. The modelling provides a new framework and perspective for understanding how blood flow and other physiological factors support energy metabolism in the brain under a wide range of conditions. KEY POINTS: Thermodynamic modelling indicates that preserving the O2 /CO2 ratio in brain tissue is critical for preserving the entropy change available from oxidative metabolism of glucose and the phosphorylation potential underlying energy metabolism. A detailed model of O2 and CO2 transport was developed to allow estimation of the tissue O2 /CO2 ratio in the human brain in different physiological states. Reported experimental results during hypoxia, hypercapnia and increased oxygen metabolic rate in response to increased neural activity are consistent with maintaining brain tissue O2 /CO2 ratio. The hypoxia modelling of high-altitude acclimatization and adaptation in humans demonstrates the critical role of reducing CO2 with increased ventilation for preserving tissue O2 /CO2 . Preservation of tissue O2 /CO2 provides a novel perspective for understanding the function of observed physiological responses under different conditions in terms of preserving brain energy metabolism, although the mechanisms underlying these functions are not well understood.

Density-dependent species interactions modulate alpine treeline shifts.

Species interactions such as facilitation and competition play a crucial role in driving species range shifts. However, density dependence as a key feature of these processes has received little attention in both empirical and modelling studies. Herein, we used a novel, individual-based treeline model informed by rich in situ observations to quantify the contribution of density-dependent species interactions to alpine treeline dynamics, an iconic biome boundary recognized as an indicator of global warming. We found that competition and facilitation dominate in dense versus sparse vegetation scenarios respectively. The optimal balance between these two effects was identified at an intermediate vegetation thickness where the treeline elevation was the highest. Furthermore, treeline shift rates decreased sharply with vegetation thickness and the associated transition from positive to negative species interactions. We thus postulate that vegetation density must be considered when modelling species range dynamics to avoid inadequate predictions of its responses to climate warming.

Thermal limits of survival and reproduction depend on stress duration: A case study of Drosophila suzukii.

Studies of ectotherm responses to heat extremes often rely on assessing absolute critical limits for heat coma or death (CTmax), however, such single parameter metrics ignore the importance of stress exposure duration. Furthermore, population persistence may be affected at temperatures considerably below CTmax through decreased reproductive output. Here we investigate the relationship between tolerance duration and severity of heat stress across three ecologically relevant life-history traits (productivity, coma and mortality) using the global agricultural pest Drosophila suzukii. For the first time, we show that for sublethal reproductive traits, tolerance duration decreases exponentially with increasing temperature (R2 > 0.97), thereby extending the Thermal Death Time framework recently developed for mortality and coma. Using field micro-environmental temperatures, we show how thermal stress can lead to considerable reproductive loss at temperatures with limited heat mortality highlighting the importance of including limits to reproductive performance in ecological studies of heat stress vulnerability.

Beyond a single temperature threshold: Applying a cumulative thermal stress framework to plant heat tolerance.

Most plant thermal tolerance studies focus on single critical thresholds, which limit the capacity to generalise across studies and predict heat stress under natural conditions. In animals and microbes, thermal tolerance landscapes describe the more realistic, cumulative effects of temperature. We tested this in plants by measuring the decline in leaf photosynthetic efficiency (FV/FM) following a combination of temperatures and exposure times and then modelled these physiological indices alongside recorded environmental temperatures. We demonstrate that a general relationship between stressful temperatures and exposure durations can be effectively employed to quantify and compare heat tolerance within and across plant species and over time. Importantly, we show how FV/FM curves translate to plants under natural conditions, suggesting that environmental temperatures often impair photosynthetic function. Our findings provide more robust descriptors of heat tolerance in plants and suggest that heat tolerance in disparate groups of organisms can be studied with a single predictive framework.

Extreme High-Elevation Mammal Surveys Reveal Unexpectedly High Upper Range Limits of Andean Mice.

AbstractIn the world's highest mountain ranges, uncertainty about the upper elevational range limits of alpine animals represents a critical knowledge gap regarding the environmental limits of life and presents a problem for detecting range shifts in response to climate change. Here we report results of mountaineering mammal surveys in the Central Andes, which led to the discovery of multiple species of mice living at extreme elevations that far surpass previously assumed range limits for mammals. We livetrapped small mammals from ecologically diverse sites spanning >6,700 m of vertical relief, from the desert coast of northern Chile to the summits of the highest volcanoes in the Andes. We used molecular sequence data and whole-genome sequence data to confirm the identities of species that represent new elevational records and to test hypotheses regarding species limits. These discoveries contribute to a new appreciation of the environmental limits of vertebrate life.

Heatwaves are detrimental to fertility in the viviparous tsetse fly.

Heatwaves are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change, pushing animals beyond physiological limits. While most studies focus on survival limits, sublethal effects on fertility tend to occur below lethal thresholds, and consequently can be as important for population viability. Typically, male fertility is more heat-sensitive than female fertility, yet direct comparisons are limited. Here, we measured the effect of experimental heatwaves on tsetse flies, Glossina pallidipes, disease vectors and unusual live-bearing insects of sub-Saharan Africa. We exposed males or females to a 3-day heatwave peaking at 36, 38 or 40°C for 2 h, and a 25°C control, monitoring mortality and reproduction over six weeks. For a heatwave peaking at 40°C, mortality was 100%, while a 38°C peak resulted in only 8% acute mortality. Females exposed to the 38°C heatwave experienced a one-week delay in producing offspring, whereas no such delay occurred in males. Over six weeks, heatwaves resulted in equivalent fertility loss in both sexes. Combined with mortality, this lead to a 10% population decline over six weeks compared to the control. Furthermore, parental heatwave exposure gave rise to a female-biased offspring sex ratio. Ultimately, thermal limits of both survival and fertility should be considered when assessing climate change vulnerability.

Rare edges and abundant cores: range-wide variation in abundance in North American birds.

Understanding how the abundance of species varies across geographical ranges is central to ecology; however, few studies test hypotheses using detailed abundance estimates across the full ranges of species on a continental scale. Here, we use unprecedented, detailed estimates of breeding abundance for North American birds (eBird) to test two hypotheses for how abundance varies across species' ranges. We find widespread support for the rare-edge hypothesis-where the abundance of species declines near the range edge-reflecting both reduced occurrence and lower local abundance near range edges. By contrast, we find mixed support for the abundant-centre hypothesis-where the abundance of species peaks in the centre of the range and declines towards the edges-with limited support in conservative tests within species, but general support in among-species tests that control for unbalanced sampling and consider a broader definition of the range centre. Overall, results are consistent with a gradual decline in suitable conditions and increase in challenge towards the range edge that eventually limit the ability of populations to persist.

The sensitivity of root water uptake to cold root temperature follows species-specific upper elevational distribution limits of temperate tree species.

Physiological water stress induced by low root temperatures might contribute to species-specific climatic limits of tree distribution. We investigated the low temperature sensitivity of root water uptake and transport in seedlings of 16 European tree species which reach their natural upper elevation distribution limits at different distances to the alpine treeline. We used 2H-H2O pulse-labelling to quantify the water uptake and transport velocity from roots to leaves in seedlings exposed to constant 15°C, 7°C or 2°C root temperature, but identical aboveground temperatures between 20°C and 25°C. In all species, low root temperatures reduced the water transport rate, accompanied by reduced stem water potentials and stomatal conductance. At 7°C root temperature, the relative water uptake rates among species correlated positively with the species-specific upper elevation limits, indicating an increasingly higher sensitivity to lower root zone temperatures, the lower a species' natural elevational distribution limit. Conversely, 2°C root temperature severely inhibited water uptake in all species, irrespective of the species' thermal elevational limits. We conclude that low temperature-induced hydraulic constraints contribute to the cold distribution limits of temperate tree species and are a potential physiological cause behind the low temperature limits of plant growth in general.

Reference limits for osteocalcin in infancy and early childhood: A longitudinal birth cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: The longitudinal variations in serum levels of the hormone osteocalcin is largely unknown during infancy and early childhood. Our aim was to establish reference limits for total serum osteocalcin during specific time points from birth until 5 years of age and present those in the context of sex, breastfeeding practices and gestational age (GA). DESIGN: Blood samples from 551 Swedish children were analysed at birth, 4, 12, 36 and 60 months of age. Total serum osteocalcin was measured using the IDS-iSYS N-MID Osteocalcin assay technique. Information about the mother, birth, anthropometrics and a food diary were collected. RESULTS: Sex-specific and age-specific reference limits were established for the five time points. The median osteocalcin levels over time were 40.8, 90.0, 67.8, 62.2 and 80.9 µg/L for boys and 38.1, 95.5, 78.3, 73.9 and 92.6 µg/L for girls. Lower GA was associated to higher osteocalcin at birth, and ongoing breastfeeding was associated to higher osteocalcin levels. CONCLUSION: Osteocalcin followed a wavelike pattern with low levels in the umbilical cord and a postnatal peak during the first year which then declined and rose again by the age of five. Knowledge of this wavelike pattern and association to factors as sex, breastfeeding and GA may help clinicians to interpret individual osteocalcin levels and guide in future research.

Acclimation to warmer temperatures can protect host populations from both further heat stress and the potential invasion of pathogens.

Thermal acclimation can provide an essential buffer against heat stress for host populations, while acting simultaneously on various life-history traits that determine population growth. In turn, the ability of a pathogen to invade a host population is intimately linked to these changes via the supply of new susceptible hosts, as well as the impact of warming on its immediate infection dynamics. Acclimation therefore has consequences for hosts and pathogens that extend beyond simply coping with heat stress-governing both population growth trajectories and, as a result, an inherent propensity for a disease outbreak to occur. The impact of thermal acclimation on heat tolerances, however, is rarely considered simultaneously with metrics of both host and pathogen population growth, and ultimately fitness. Using the host Daphnia magna and its bacterial pathogen, we investigated how thermal acclimation impacts host and pathogen performance at both the individual and population scales. We first tested the effect of maternal and direct thermal acclimation on the life-history traits of infected and uninfected individuals, such as heat tolerance, fecundity, and lifespan, as well as pathogen infection success and spore production. We then predicted the effects of each acclimation treatment on rates of host and pathogen population increase by deriving a host's intrinsic growth rate (rm) and a pathogen's basic reproductive number (R0). We found that direct acclimation to warming enhanced a host's heat tolerance and rate of population growth, despite a decline in life-history traits such as lifetime fecundity and lifespan. In contrast, pathogen performance was consistently worse under warming, with within-host pathogen success, and ultimately the potential for disease spread, severely hampered at higher temperatures. Our results suggest that hosts could benefit more from warming than their pathogens, but only by linking multiple individual traits to population processes can the full impact of higher temperatures on host and pathogen population dynamics be realised.

Observers Efficiently Extract the Minimal and Maximal Element in Perceptual Magnitude Sets: Evidence for a Bipartite Format.

The mind represents abstract magnitude information, including time, space, and number, but in what format is this information stored? We show support for the bipartite format of perceptual magnitudes, in which the measured value on a dimension is scaled to the dynamic range of the input, leading to a privileged status for values at the lowest and highest end of the range. In six experiments with college undergraduates, we show that observers are faster and more accurate to find the endpoints (i.e., the minimum and maximum) than any of the inner values, even as the number of items increases beyond visual short-term memory limits. Our results show that length, size, and number are represented in a dynamic format that allows for comparison-free sorting, with endpoints represented with an immediately accessible status, consistent with the bipartite model of perceptual magnitudes. We discuss the implications for theories of visual search and ensemble perception.

Pitfalls in the lab assessment of hypopituitarism.

The diagnostic approach to hypopituitarism involves many disciplines. Clinical symptoms rarely are specific. Imaging techniques are helpful but cannot prove the specific functional defects. Therefore, the definitive diagnosis of pituitary insufficiency is largely based on laboratory tests. However, also laboratory methods come with inherent limitations, and it is essential for the clinician to know and recognize typical pitfalls. Most factors potentially impairing the quality of hormone measurements are introduced in the preanalytical phase, i.e. before the hormones are measured by the laboratory. For example, the timing of blood drawing with respect to circadian rhythm, stress, and medication can have an influence on hormone concentrations. During the actual analysis of the hormones, cross-reactions with molecules present in the sample presenting the same or similar epitopes than the intended analyte may affect immunoassays. Interference can also come from heterophilic or human anti-animal antibodies. Unexpected problems can also be due to popular nutritional supplements which interfere with the measurement procedures. An important example in this respect is the interference from biotin. It became only clinically visible when the use of this vitamin became popular among patients. The extreme serum concentrations reached when patients take it as a supplement can lead to incorrect measurements in immunoassays employing the biotin-streptavidin system. To some extent, hormone analyses using liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (LCMS) can overcome problems, although availability and cost-effectiveness of this method still imposes restrictions. In the post-analytical phase, appropriateness of reference intervals and cut-offs with respect to the specific analytical method used is of outmost importance. Furthermore, for interpretation, additional biological and pharmacological factors like BMI, age and concomitant diseases must be considered to avoid misinterpretation of the measured concentrations. It is important for the clinician and the laboratory to recognize when one or more laboratory values do not match the clinical picture. In an interdisciplinary approach, the search for the underlying cause should be initiated.

Legal age limits in accessing donor information: experiences of donor-conceived people, parents, sperm donors and counsellors.

RESEARCH QUESTION: What are the lived experiences of donor-conceived people, parents, sperm donors and counsellors related to legal age limits on accessing donor information in the Netherlands? DESIGN: A phenomenological study was carried out that included 20 donor-conceived individuals, 15 parents, 6 sperm donors and 5 counsellors. Data were collected through online qualitative in-depth interviews and focus groups. The data were analysed using Dahlberg's Reflective Lifeworld Approach. RESULTS: The results show how: (i) age limits create challenges related to dependency, autonomy and loyalty to parents; (ii) donor information can be important for identity development, which looks different at different ages; (iii) inaccessible information can lead to unfair loss and may be perceived as negative; (iv) relational stability provides a good foundation for dealing with the (in)accessibility of donor information; (v) procedural barriers and age limits increase the inaccessibility of donor information; and (vi) comprehensive counselling is desired for donor-conceived individuals, parents and donors. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that legal age limits on accessing donor information can lead to several negative consequences. The age limits focus on one individual, which is not appropriate for questions about ancestry that always pertain to a relational network. Counselling should be tailored to the child's needs, and the child's family should be involved. Furthermore, the donor should receive independent counselling.

Heatwaves inflict reproductive but not survival costs to male insects.

Climate change is having a dramatic effect on the environment, with rising global temperatures and more frequent extreme climatic events, such as heatwaves, that can hamper organisms' biological functions. Although it is clear that sudden and extreme temperatures can damage reproductive processes, there is limited understanding of the effects of heatwaves on male mating behaviour and reproductive success. We tested for the effects of heat stress induced by ecologically relevant heatwaves (33°C and 39°C for five consecutive days) on the mating behaviour, reproductive success, body mass and survival of male field crickets Gryllus bimaculatus, paired with untreated females. We predicted life-history and reproductive costs would increase with increasing heatwave intensity. Consistent with our expectations, males exposed to the highest heatwave temperature produced the fewest offspring, while having to increase courtship effort to successfully mate. Males also gained relatively more weight following heatwave exposure. Given that we found no difference in lifetime survival, our results suggest a potential trade-off in resource allocation between somatic maintenance and reproductive investment. Taken together, our findings indicate that sublethal effects of heatwaves could reduce the growth and persistence of animal populations by negatively impacting reproductive rates. These findings highlight the need for considering thermal ecologies, life history and behaviour to better understand the consequences of extreme climatic events on individuals and populations.

Factors limiting the potential range expansion of lodgepole pine in Interior Alaska.

Understanding the factors influencing species range limits is increasingly crucial in anticipating migrations due to human-caused climate change. In the boreal biome, ongoing climate change and the associated increases in the rate, size, and severity of disturbances may alter the distributions of boreal tree species. Notably, Interior Alaska lacks native pine, a biogeographical anomaly that carries implications for ecosystem structure and function. The current range of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) in the adjacent Yukon Territory may expand into Interior Alaska, particularly with human assistance. Evaluating the potential for pine expansion in Alaska requires testing constraints on range limits such as dispersal limitations, environmental tolerance limits, and positive or negative biotic interactions. In this study, we used field experiments with pine seeds and transplanted seedlings, complemented by model simulations, to assess the abiotic and biotic factors influencing lodgepole pine seedling establishment and growth after fire in Interior Alaska. We found that pine could successfully recruit, survive, grow, and reproduce across our broadly distributed network of experimental sites. Our results show that both mammalian herbivory and competition from native tree species are unlikely to constrain pine growth and that environmental conditions commonly found in Interior Alaska fall well within the tolerance limits for pine. If dispersal constraints are released, lodgepole pine could have a geographically expansive range in Alaska, and once established, its growth is sufficient to support pine-dominated stands. Given the impacts of lodgepole pine on ecosystem processes such as increases in timber production, carbon sequestration, landscape flammability, and reduced forage quality, natural or human-assisted migration of this species is likely to substantially alter responses of Alaskan forest ecosystems to climate change.

APS calculator: a data-driven tool for setting outcome-based analytical performance specifications for measurement uncertainty using specific clinical requirements and population data.

OBJECTIVES: According to ISO 15189:2022, analytical performance specifications (APS) should relate to intended clinical use and impact on patient care. Therefore, we aimed to develop a web application for laboratory professionals to calculate APS based on a simulation of the impact of measurement uncertainty (MU) on the outcome using the chosen decision limits, agreement thresholds, and data of the population of interest. METHODS: We developed the "APS Calculator" allowing users to upload and select data of concern, specify decision limits and agreement thresholds, and conduct simulations to determine APS for MU. The simulation involved categorizing original measurand concentrations, generating measured (simulated) results by introducing different degrees of MU, and recategorizing measured concentrations based on clinical decision limits and acceptable clinical misclassification rates. The agreements between original and simulated result categories were assessed, and values that met or exceeded user-specified agreement thresholds that set goals for the between-category agreement were considered acceptable. The application generates contour plots of agreement rates and corresponding MU values. We tested the application using National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data, with decision limits from relevant guidelines. RESULTS: We determined APS for MU of six measurands (blood total hemoglobin, plasma fasting glucose, serum total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, and total folate) to demonstrate the potential of the application to generate APS. CONCLUSIONS: The developed data-driven web application offers a flexible tool for laboratory professionals to calculate APS for MU using their chosen decision limits and agreement thresholds, and the data of the population of interest.