Who is more likely to respond to dual treatment with pegylated-interferon and ribavirin for chronic hepatitis C? A gender-oriented analysis.

We assessed, in real-life practice, viral, demographic, genetic and metabolic factors influencing the sustained virologic response (SVR), with a gender-oriented analysis, in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) treated with pegylated interferon and ribavirin. Six hundred and seventy naïve patients were treated with dual therapy and evaluated by gender and HCV genotype. Associations between baseline variables and SVR were assessed by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Among 362 genotype 1 patients, SVR was achieved in 158 patients (44%), and SVR was independently associated with age less than 50 years (OR 2.12; 95% CI 1.09-4.30; P=0.039) and C/C genotype rs12979860 SNP (OR 2.83; 1.19-6.74; P=0.002) in 163 females, while absence of visceral obesity (OR 2.491; 1.131-5.487; P=0.023), HCV-RNA lower than 400,000 IU/mL (OR 2.66; 1.273-5.558; P=0.009) and C/C genotype rs12979860 SNP (OR 4.969; 2.401-10.283; P<0.001) were independently associated with SVR in 199 males. Combining favourable baseline variables, the probability of obtaining SVR ranged from 27.6% to 84.2% in females, and from 14.3% to 85.7% in males. The rate of SVR was 81.1% in 175 genotype 2 patients, and 69% in 100 genotype 3 patients. Rapid virologic response was the only valid predictor of SVR regardless of other features. In conclusions, in the setting of HCV genotype 1, chronic hepatitis, combining rapid virologic response and predictive factors, which are different for females and males, allows clinicians to single out a group of patients whose likelihood of SVR exceeds 80%. For these patients, triple therapy with first-generation protease inhibitors may be unwarranted.

Rates of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Start of Treatment for Chronic Hepatitis C Remain High with Direct Acting Antivirals: Analysis from a Swiss Liver Transplant Center.

BACKGROUND: Direct-acting antivirals (DAA) have revolutionized the therapy of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) and have replaced previous PEG-interferon/ribavirin (PEG-IFN/RBV) treatment. Patients with CHC and advanced liver disease are at increased risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the effects of DAA-based CHC treatment on subsequent HCC incidence remain poorly understood. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This retrospective single-institution cohort study included 243 consecutive patients after PEG-IFN/RBV and 263 patients after DAA treatment. Multivariable cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare time to HCC between treatment types, censoring patients who died or had an orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) at the time of the competing event. Age, gender, BMI, viral load, cirrhosis, fibrosis stage, diabetes, virus genotype and previous PEG-IFN/RBV (before DAA) were used as covariates. In addition, we performed a propensity score-matched analysis. RESULTS: Nineteen HCC cases were observed after DAA therapy compared to 18 cases after PEG-IFN/RBV treatment. Patients were followed for a median of 4.1 years (IQR: 3.5-4.7) for DAA and 9.3 years (IQR: 6.6-12.4) for the PEG-IFN/RBV group. In an unadjusted Cox model, a hazard ratio (HR) of 6.40 (CI: 2.20-18.61, p=0.006) for HCC following DAA vs PEG-IFN/RBV was estimated. In multivariable Cox proportional hazard models, age and liver cirrhosis were identified as further HCC risk factors but the HR estimates for DAA vs PEG-IFN/RBV still indicate a considerably increased hazard associated with DAA treatment (HR between 7.23 and 11.52, p≤0.001, depending on covariates). A HR of 6.62 (CI: 2.01-21.84, p=0.002) for DAA vs PEG-IFN/RBV was estimated in the propensity score-matched analysis. The secondary outcomes death and OLT did not differ between treatment groups. CONCLUSION: In a cohort study from a tertiary care hospital rates of HCC after the start of DAA treatment were higher compared to PEG-IFN/RBV treatment. Our data reinforce the recommendation that surveillance should be continued after successful CHC treatment.

An a priori prediction model of response to peginterferon plus ribavirin dual therapy in naïve patients with genotype 1 chronic hepatitis C.

BACKGROUND: Aim was to select naïve patients with genotype 1 chronic hepatitis C having a high probability of response to Peg-interferon+ribavirin therapy. METHODS: In 1073 patients (derivation cohort), predictors of rapid and sustained virological response were identified by logistic analysis; regression coefficients were used to generate prediction models for sustained virological response. Probabilities at baseline and treatment week 4 were utilized to develop a decision rule to select patients with high likelihood of response. The model was then validated in 423 patients (validation cohort). RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, 257 achieved rapid virological response and 818 did not, with sustained virological response rates of 80.2% and 25.4%, respectively; interleukin-28B polymorphisms, fibrosis staging, gamma-glutamyl transferase, and viral load predicted sustained virological response. Assuming a <30% sustained virological response probability for not recommending Peg-interferon+ribavirin, 100 patients (25.6%) in the validation cohort were predicted a priori to fail this regimen. Assuming a ≥80% sustained virological response probability as a threshold to continue with Peg-interferon+ribavirin, 61 patients were predicted to obtain sustained virological response, and 55 of them (90.2%) eventually did. CONCLUSIONS: This model uses easily determined variables for a personalized estimate of the probability of sustained virological response with Peg-interferon+ribavirin, allowing to identify patients who may benefit from conventional therapy.