Establishing correlates of maternal-fetal cytomegalovirus transmission-one step closer through predictive modeling.

BACKGROUND: Determinants of maternal-fetal cytomegalovirus (CMV) transmission and factors influencing the severity of congenital CMV (cCMV) infection are not well understood. METHODS: We conducted a descriptive, multi-center study in pregnant women ≥18 years old with primary CMV infection and their newborns (NCT01251744) to explore maternal immune responses to CMV and determine potential immunologic/virologic correlates of cCMV following primary infection during pregnancy. We developed alternative approaches looking into univariate/multivariate factors associated with cCMV, including a participant clustering/stratification approach and an interpretable predictive model-based approach using trained decision trees for risk prediction (post-hoc analyses). RESULTS: Pregnant women were grouped in three distinct clusters with similar baseline characteristics, particularly gestational age at diagnosis. We observed a trend for higher viral loads in urine and saliva samples from mothers of infants with cCMV versus without cCMV. When using a trained predictive-model approach that accounts for interaction effects between variables, anti-pentamer IgG antibody concentration and viral load in saliva were identified as biomarkers jointly associated with the risk of maternal-fetal CMV transmission. CONCLUSION: We identified biomarkers of CMV maternal-fetal transmission. After validation in larger studies, our findings will guide the management of primary infection during pregnancy and the development of vaccines against cCMV.

The human cytomegalovirus (CMV) is common and usually causes no symptoms in healthy individuals. However, CMV infections can be life-threatening in individuals with improperly functioning or immature immune systems, such as fetuses. Women can become infected with CMV for the first time (primary infection) during pregnancy. If CMV is transmitted from mother to fetus before the second trimester, the infant can suffer from severe disorders such as hearing loss and delayed development. We aimed to identify characteristics of pregnant women with a primary CMV infection that may increase the likelihood of transmitting CMV to the fetus. We considered demographical, clinical, and behavioral characteristics, as well as immune responses and the quantity of virus detected in the women's blood, urine, saliva, and vaginal mucus. Because we could not identify one single characteristic that could predict a high risk of CMV transmission, we developed new data analysis models to study how they can be combined. We found that antibodies targeting a pentameric antigen of the virus envelope and the presence of virus in saliva can together predict the risk of CMV transmission from mother to fetus. Our results can help improve the care of CMV-infected pregnant women and the design of CMV vaccines.

A controlled effects approach to assessing immune correlates of protection.

An immune correlate of risk (CoR) is an immunologic biomarker in vaccine recipients associated with an infectious disease clinical endpoint. An immune correlate of protection (CoP) is a CoR that can be used to reliably predict vaccine efficacy (VE) against the clinical endpoint and hence is accepted as a surrogate endpoint that can be used for accelerated approval or guide use of vaccines. In randomized, placebo-controlled trials, CoR analysis is limited by not assessing a causal vaccine effect. To address this limitation, we construct the controlled risk curve of a biomarker, which provides the causal risk of an endpoint if all participants are assigned vaccine and the biomarker is set to different levels. Furthermore, we propose a causal CoP analysis based on controlled effects, where for the important special case that the biomarker is constant in the placebo arm, we study the controlled vaccine efficacy curve that contrasts the controlled risk curve with placebo arm risk. We provide identification conditions and formulae that account for right censoring of the clinical endpoint and two-phase sampling of the biomarker, and consider G-computation estimation and inference under a semiparametric model such as the Cox model. We add modular approaches to sensitivity analysis that quantify robustness of CoP evidence to unmeasured confounding. We provide an application to two phase 3 trials of a dengue vaccine indicating that controlled risk of dengue strongly varies with 50$\%$ neutralizing antibody titer. Our work introduces controlled effects causal mediation analysis to immune CoP evaluation.

Anti-Spike IgG antibodies as correlates of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection in the pre-Omicron and Omicron era.

Anti-Spike IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, which are elicited by vaccination and infection, are correlates of protection against infection with pre-Omicron variants. Whether this association can be generalized to infections with Omicron variants is unclear. We conducted a retrospective cohort study with 8457 blood donors in Tyrol, Austria, analyzing 15,340 anti-Spike IgG antibody measurements from March 2021 to December 2022 assessed by Abbott SARS-CoV-2 IgG II chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay. Using a Bayesian joint model, we estimated antibody trajectories and adjusted hazard ratios for incident SARS-CoV-2 infection ascertained by self-report or seroconversion of anti-Nucleocapsid antibodies. At the time of their earliest available anti-Spike IgG antibody measurement (median November 23, 2021), participants had a median age of 46.0 years (IQR 32.8-55.2), with 45.3% being female, 41.3% having a prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, and 75.5% having received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Among 6159 participants with endpoint data, 3700 incident SARS-CoV-2 infections with predominantly Omicron sublineages were recorded over a median of 8.8 months (IQR 5.7-12.4). The age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio for SARS-CoV-2 associated with having twice the anti-Spike IgG antibody titer was 0.875 (95% credible interval 0.868-0.881) overall, 0.842 (0.827-0.856) during 2021, and 0.884 (0.877-0.891) during 2022 (all p < 0.001). The associations were similar in females and males (Pinteraction = 0.673) and across age (Pinteraction = 0.590). Higher anti-Spike IgG antibody titers were associated with reduced risk of incident SARS-CoV-2 infection across the entire observation period. While the magnitude of association was slightly weakened in the Omicron era, anti-Spike IgG antibody continues to be a suitable correlate of protection against newer SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Elucidating vaccine efficacy using a correlate of protection, demographics, and logistic regression.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine efficacy (VE) assessed in a randomized controlled clinical trial can be affected by demographic, clinical, and other subject-specific characteristics evaluated as baseline covariates. Understanding the effect of covariates on efficacy is key to decisions by vaccine developers and public health authorities. METHODS: This work evaluates the impact of including correlate of protection (CoP) data in logistic regression on its performance in identifying statistically and clinically significant covariates in settings typical for a vaccine phase 3 trial. The proposed approach uses CoP data and covariate data as predictors of clinical outcome (diseased versus non-diseased) and is compared to logistic regression (without CoP data) to relate vaccination status and covariate data to clinical outcome. RESULTS: Clinical trial simulations, in which the true relationship between CoP data and clinical outcome probability is a sigmoid function, show that use of CoP data increases the positive predictive value for detection of a covariate effect. If the true relationship is characterized by a decreasing convex function, use of CoP data does not substantially change positive or negative predictive value. In either scenario, vaccine efficacy is estimated more precisely (i.e., confidence intervals are narrower) in covariate-defined subgroups if CoP data are used, implying that using CoP data increases the ability to determine clinical significance of baseline covariate effects on efficacy. CONCLUSIONS: This study proposes and evaluates a novel approach for assessing baseline demographic covariates potentially affecting VE. Results show that the proposed approach can sensitively and specifically identify potentially important covariates and provides a method for evaluating their likely clinical significance in terms of predicted impact on vaccine efficacy. It shows further that inclusion of CoP data can enable more precise VE estimation, thus enhancing study power and/or efficiency and providing even better information to support health policy and development decisions.

Prognostic value of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: Globally, over 772 million cases of COVID-19 have been reported. New variants of interest with corresponding spikes in case numbers continue to be identified. Vulnerable patients, including older adults or patients with severe comorbidities, continue to be at risk. A large body of evidence has been accumulated regarding anti-SARS-CoV-2-antibodies and COVID-19 but the usefulness of antibody measurements remains unclear. This systematic review aims to assess the prognostic value of anti-SARS-CoV-2-antibodies and their usefulness for guiding booster vaccinations. METHODS: Studies in English and published between January 2020 and October 2023 were included. Studies that relied on multiparameter-models or comprised fewer than 100 participants were excluded. PubMed and via the WHO COVID-19 research database, Embase and Medline databases were searched. Study selection and quality assessment was conducted independently by two researchers. RESULTS: After screening 1,160 studies, 33 studies comprising >30 million individuals were included. Anti-SARS-CoV-2-antibodies were strongly associated with reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2-infection and better outcomes, including mortality. Risk of infection and COVID-19 severity decreased with increasing antibody levels. CONCLUSIONS: Anti-SARS-CoV-2-antibodies are useful for early identification of high-risk patients and timely adjustment of therapy. Protective thresholds may be applied to advise booster vaccinations but verification in separate cohorts is required.

Enabling the evaluation of COVID-19 vaccines with correlates of protection.

In February 2023, a meeting about correlates of protection (CoPs) against COVID-19 was organized by the International Alliance for Biological Standardization, the European Plotkin Institute for Vaccinology, and Vaccinopolis. The meeting aimed at reviewing the evidence, drawing conclusions, and identifying knowledge gaps. Collection of evidence is not straightforward. Neutralizing antibodies correlate with protection and are used for immunobridging studies within and between vaccine platforms for approval of new COVID-19 vaccines. In preparation for the next pandemic, it is vital that rapidly authorized initial vaccines are available to perform immunobridging studies very early. Additional components of the immune response likely contribute to protection against symptomatic infection. Current evidence is strongest for T lymphocytes and binding antibodies. Further studies are needed to consolidate this evidence and define their potential role in the evaluation of vaccines. For evaluation of mucosal vaccines, identifying CoPs against infection and transmission is key; further research is needed to identify and standardize methods suitable for clinical studies. CoPs for broadly protective beta-coronavirus vaccines remain a critical area of research. The knowledge, expertise, and capacity exist to conduct clinical studies using different designs in different populations to discover and validate CoPs, facilitating and accelerating evaluation of novel vaccines/vaccination platforms.

A controlled effects approach to assessing immune correlates of protection.

An immune correlate of risk (CoR) is an immunologic biomarker in vaccine recipients associated with an infectious disease clinical endpoint. An immune correlate of protection (CoP) is a CoR that can be used to reliably predict vaccine efficacy (VE) against the clinical endpoint and hence is accepted as a surrogate endpoint that can be used for accelerated approval or guide use of vaccines. In randomized, placebo-controlled trials, CoR analysis is limited by not assessing a causal vaccine effect. To address this limitation, we construct the controlled risk curve of a biomarker, which provides the causal risk of an endpoint if all participants are assigned vaccine and the biomarker is set to different levels. Furthermore, we propose a causal CoP analysis based on controlled effects, where for the important special case that the biomarker is constant in the placebo arm, we study the controlled vaccine efficacy curve that contrasts the controlled risk curve with placebo arm risk. We provide identification conditions and formulae that account for right censoring of the clinical endpoint and two-phase sampling of the biomarker, and consider G-computation estimation and inference under a semiparametric model such as the Cox model. We add modular approaches to sensitivity analysis that quantify robustness of CoP evidence to unmeasured confounding. We provide an application to two phase 3 trials of a dengue vaccine indicating that controlled risk of dengue strongly varies with 50$\%$ neutralizing antibody titer. Our work introduces controlled effects causal mediation analysis to immune CoP evaluation.

Semiparametric pseudo-score and pseudo-likelihood for evaluating correlate of protection in vaccine trials.

In vaccine clinical trials, vaccine efficacy endpoint analysis is usually associated with in high cost or extended study duration, due to the generally low infection rate. Correlate of protection (CoP), which refers to surrogate endpoint, usually immunological response, that can reliably predict the treatment effect, provides a more efficient and less costly approach to evaluate the vaccine. To handle the challenge of the missingness in the unobserved surrogate immune biomarker, the pseudo-score (PS) method, semiparametric method and pseudo-likelihood (PL) method demonstrated their advantages on different aspects. In this article, we propose new methodologies to combine the advantages of PS and PL with semiparametric methods respectively, to achieve higher estimate efficiency, allow continuous baseline predictor variable, and handle multiple surrogate markers. The advantage of our methodologies are demonstrated by a simulation study in different settings and applied to a case study, which eventually can improve the chance of a successful trial.

Predictors and correlates of emotionalism across acquired and progressive neurological conditions: A systematic review.

Emotionalism can develop following a range of neurological disorders; however the aetiology of emotionalism is still unclear. To identify anatomical, neuropsychological and psychological predictors and correlates of emotionalism across neurological disorders: stroke, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, traumatic brain injury, Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. To explore if these predictors and correlates of emotionalism differ across neurological disorders. A comprehensive systematic search was completed of four databases: MEDLINE, CINAHL Complete, PsycINFO and EMBASE. Methodological quality was assessed using the Quality Assessment Tool for Observational Cohort and Cross-Sectional Studies and each study was graded according to the level of evidence using the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network. Fifty papers (participants N = 1922) were included. 25 studies were rated as "Fair," 21 "Good" and 4 "Poor." The review identified predictors and correlates found in several neurological disorder such as bulbar networks, serotonergic pathways, genetics and female gender. Multiple studies across diseases (stroke, MS, ALS) indicate emotionalism is associated with cognitive impairment, especially frontal deficits. Due to the disproportionate number of studies identified across neurological disorders, it is difficult to draw definitive answers. Further research is required across neurological disorders to explore similarities and differences in anatomical, neuropsychological and psychological predictors and correlates.

Immunity to SARS-CoV-2: What Do We Know and Should We Be Testing for It?

Preexisting immunity to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) was nonexistent in humans, which coupled with high transmission rates of certain SARS-CoV-2 variants and limited vaccine uptake or availability, has collectively resulted in an ongoing global pandemic. The identification and establishment of one or multiple correlates of protection (CoP) against infectious pathogens is challenging, but beneficial from both the patient care and public health perspectives. Multiple studies have shown that neutralizing antibodies, whether generated following SARS-CoV-2 infection, vaccination, or a combination of both (i.e., hybrid immunity), as well as adaptive cellular immune responses, serve as CoPs for COVID-19. However, the diverse number and type of serologic assays, alongside the lack of cross-assay standardization and emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants with immune evasive characteristics, have collectively posed challenges to determining a robust CoP 'threshold' and for the routine utilization of these assays to document 'immunity,' as is commonly done for other vaccine preventable diseases. Here, we discuss what CoPs are, review our current understanding of infection-induced, vaccine-elicited and hybrid immunity to COVID-19 and summarize the current and potential future utility of SARS-CoV-2 serologic testing.

No structural brain alterations in new daily persistent headache - a cross sectional VBM/SBM study.

OBJECTIVE: To identify grey matter alterations in patients suffering new daily persistent headache to enrich the pathophysiological concept of this rare headache disorder characterised by a distinct, clearly remembered onset and its instant chronification. METHOD: Magnetic resonance-based voxel-based and surface-based morphometry was used to investigate 23 patients suffering from new daily persistent headache and 23 age- and gender-matched healthy controls with 1.5 Tesla MRI.Independent statistical analysis was performed at three sites using statistical parametric mapping, as well as FSL(FMRIB Software Library)-based approaches. RESULTS: No grey matter changes were detected using this sophisticated and cross-checked method. CONCLUSION: The absence of structural brain changes in patients with new daily persistent headache contribute to the recent discussion regarding structural alterations in primary headache disorders in general and does not provide evidence for grey matter changes being associated with the pathophysiology of new daily persistent headache. Future research will have to determine the underlying pathophysiological mechanisms of this disorder.

Correlates of stigma for patients with breast cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: This study was conducted to examine the factors associated with stigma in breast cancer women. METHODS: PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and two Chinese electronic databases were electronically searched to identify eligible studies that reported the correlates of stigma for patients with breast cancer from inception to July 2022. Two researchers independently performed literature screening, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment. R4.1.1 software was used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: Twenty articles including 4161 patients were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. Results showed that breast cancer stigma was positively correlated with working status, type of surgery, resignation coping, depression, ambivalence over emotional expression, and delayed help-seeking behavior and negatively correlated with age, education, income, quality of life, social support, confrontation coping, psychological adaptation, self-efficacy, and self-esteem. Descriptive analysis showed that breast cancer stigma was positively correlated with intrusive thoughts, body image, anxiety, and self-perceived burden but negatively correlated with a sense of coherence, personal acceptance of the disease, sleep quality, cancer screening attendance and doctor's empathy. CONCLUSION: Many demographic, disease-related, and psychosocial variables are related to breast cancer stigma. Our view can serve as a basis for health care professionals to develop health promotion and prevention strategies for patients with breast cancer.

Systems approaches to correlates of protection and progression to TB disease.

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death due to a single infectious disease and an effective vaccine would substantially accelerate global efforts to control TB. An immune correlate of protection (CoP) from TB disease could aid vaccine optimization and licensure. This paper summarises opportunities for identifying CoP and highlights results from correlates of risk studies. Although we don't have CoP, there are ongoing efficacy trials with both disease and infection endpoints which provide opportunities for such an analysis. Transcriptomics has successfully identified robust CoR, with transcripts found in the Type I IFN pathway. Correlates of lower risk include BCG antigen specific IFN-γ and natural killer cells. Collating evidence from multiple studies using a range of systems approaches supports a role for IFN-γ in protection from TB disease. In addition, the cells that express the IFN-γ receptor are also important in protective immunity. Protection is a culmination not only of the amount of IFN-γ produced by T cells and NK cells but by the ability of IFN-γ receptor expressing monocytes to respond to IFN-γ. To better understand IFN-γ as a correlate we need to understand host-factors such as age, sex, co-infection, nutritional status and stress which may alter or impair the ability of cells to respond to IFN-γ. These studies highlight recent advances in our understanding of the immune mechanisms of TB disease risk and show the importance of whole systems approaches to correlates of risk analysis. CoP may be useful tools for specific vaccine products in specific populations, but a well-designed CoR analysis can identify novel immune mechanisms and provide insights critical for the development of new and better TB vaccines.

Correlating efficacy and immunogenicity in malaria vaccine trials.

The availability of an effective and appropriately implemented malaria vaccine would form a crucial cornerstone of public health efforts to fight this disease. Despite many decades of research, however, no malaria vaccine has yet shown satisfactory protective efficacy or been rolled-out. Validated immunological substitute endpoints have the potential to accelerate clinical vaccine development by reducing the required complexity, size, duration and cost of clinical trials. Besides facilitating clinical development of existing vaccine candidates, understanding immunological mechanisms of protection may drive the development of fundamentally new vaccination approaches. In this review we focus on correlates of protection in malaria vaccine development: Does immunogenicity predict malaria vaccine efficacy and why is this question particularly difficult? Have immunological correlates accelerated malaria vaccine development in the past and will they facilitate it in the future? Does Controlled Human Malaria Infection represent a valid model for identifying such immunological correlates, or a correlate of protection against naturally-acquired malaria in itself?

Correlates of physical activity in adults with spondyloarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis: a systematic review.

Physical activity (PA) is a primary non-pharmacological treatment option for those living with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and spondyloarthritis (SpA). The aim of this systematic literature review was to summarize and present an updated synthesis of the factors associated with PA in the RA and SpA populations. A tailored search of PubMed (inc. Medline), Web of Science, Embase, APA PsycNET, and Scopus was conducted for research published between 2004 and June 2019. Methodological quality was assessed using The National Institutes of Health (NIH) Quality Assessment Tools for Observational Cohort and Cross-sectional Studies, Case-Control Studies, and Controlled Intervention Studies. Forty RA and eleven SpA articles met the inclusion criteria. Methodological quality was generally fair to good, with two RA studies rated as poor. Correlates are discussed in the sociodemographic, physical, psychological, social, and environmental categories. Environmental factors were not measured in any RA study. In individuals living with RA, consistent positive associations were found between PA and high-density lipoprotein, self-efficacy, and motivation. Consistent negative associations were found for functional disability and fatigue. In individuals with SpA, consistent positive associations were found between PA and quality of life, and consistent negative associations with functional disability. Physical and psychological factors are most consistently related with PA parameters in those living with RA and SpA. Many variables were inconsistently studied and showed indeterminant associations. Studies with prospective designs are needed to further understand the factors associated with PA in these populations, especially in those living with SpA.

Association of Group B Streptococcus (GBS) Serum Serotype-Specific Anticapsular Immunoglobulin G Concentration and Risk Reduction for Invasive GBS Disease in South African Infants: An Observational Birth-Cohort, Matched Case-Control Study.

BACKGROUND: Licensure of a group B Streptococcus (GBS) polysaccharide-protein conjugate vaccine for protecting infants against invasive GBS disease (IGbsD) will likely need to be based on demonstrating vaccine safety in pregnant women, and benchmarking immunogenicity against a serological threshold associated with risk reduction of IGbsD. We investigated the association between naturally derived GBS serotype Ia and III IgG and risk reduction of IGbsD in infants ≤90 days of age. METHODS: In a matched case-control study, IGbsD cases were identified from a cohort of 38 233 mother-newborn dyads. Mothers colonized vaginally with serotype Ia or III at birth and their healthy infants were eligible as matched controls. GBS serotype-specific anticapsular immunoglobulin G (IgG) was measured on maternal and cord blood/infant sera by multiplex Luminex assay, and the IgG threshold associated with 90% risk reduction of IGbsD was derived by estimating absolute disease risk. RESULTS: In infants born at ≥34 weeks' gestational age, cord-blood IgG geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) were lower in cases than controls for serotypes Ia (0.05 vs 0.50 µg/mL; P = .004) and III (0.20 vs 0.38 µg/mL; P = .078). Cord-blood IgG concentrations ≥1.04 and ≥1.53 µg/mL were associated with 90% risk reduction of serotype Ia and III IGbsD, respectively. The maternal sera IgG threshold associated with 90% risk reduction was ≥2.31 µg/mL and ≥3.41 µg/mL for serotypes Ia and III, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The threshold associated with a reduced risk for serotype Ia and III IGbsD identified on infant sera supports the case for licensure of a GBS polysaccharide-protein conjugate vaccine based on an immunogenicity evaluation benchmarked against the defined thresholds. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT02215226.

Real-world safety and effectiveness of regorafenib in metastatic colorectal cancer: the French CORRELATE cohort.

Aim: We report real-world evidence with regorafenib in previously treated metastatic colorectal cancer from the French cohort of the international, prospective, observational CORRELATE study. Patients & methods: Patients receiving regorafenib according to French health authority approval were included. The primary end point was treatment-emergent adverse events. Overall survival and progression-free survival were secondary end points. Results: Two hundred and forty-two patients (61% male, median age: 66 years) were enrolled. The most common grade ≥3 drug-related treatment-emergent adverse events were hand-foot skin reaction (10.3%), asthenia/fatigue (9.9/1.2%) and hypertension (6.2%). Median overall survival and progression-free survival were 6.8 (95% CI: 6.3-7.6) and 2.8 months (95% CI: 2.6-3.0), respectively. Conclusion: The real-world safety and effectiveness data of regorafenib in metastatic colorectal cancer in France align with findings from Phase III clinical trials and the global CORRELATE population.

Correlates of stigma for patients with cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to summarize the available evidence and identify the correlates of cancer stigma. METHODS: PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, and PsycINFO were electronically searched to identify eligible studies about correlates of stigma for patients with cancer. Two reviewers independently screened the literature, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias of included studies. A meta-analysis was performed using the statistical program R. RESULTS: Thirty-one studies involving a total of 7114 patients were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. The results of the meta-analysis showed that cancer stigma shared positive associations with male gender, symptoms, depression, anxiety, body image loss, self-blame, social constraint, intrusive thoughts, and ambivalence over emotional expression, and negative associations with income, NK cell subsets, QOL, self-esteem, self-efficacy, cancer screening attendance, doctor's empathy, and medical satisfaction. The results of the descriptive analysis indicated that cancer stigma was positively associated with self-perception of aging, anger, internal attributions, stressful life events, self-perceived burden, and sleep dysfunction, while negatively associated with patient-provider communication and sleep quality. CONCLUSION: Healthcare staff should pay attention to the identified correlates of cancer stigma. The results of our research can inform the design of interventions to reduce stigma and to improve clinical outcomes in people with cancer.

Assurance in vaccine efficacy clinical trial design based on immunological responses.

The assurance of a future clinical trial is a key quantitative tool for decision-making in drug development. It is derived from prior knowledge (Bayesian approach) about the clinical endpoint of interest, typically from previous clinical trials. In this paper, we examine assurance in the specific context of vaccine development, where early development (Phase 2) is often based on immunological endpoints (e.g., antibody levels), while the confirmatory trial (Phase 3) is based on the clinical endpoint (very large sample sizes and long follow-up). Our proposal is to use the Phase 2 vaccine efficacy predicted by the immunological endpoint (using a model estimated from epidemiological studies) as prior information for the calculation of the assurance.

Complex immune correlates of protection in HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trials.

Development of an efficacious HIV-1 vaccine is a major priority for improving human health worldwide. Vaccine-mediated protection against human pathogens can be achieved through elicitation of protective innate, humoral, and cellular responses. Identification of specific immune responses responsible for pathogen protection enables vaccine development and provides insights into host defenses against pathogens and the immunological mechanisms that most effectively fight infection. Defining immunological correlates of transmission risk in preclinical and clinical HIV-1 vaccine trials has moved the HIV-1 vaccine development field forward and directed new candidate vaccine development. Immune correlate studies are providing novel hypotheses about immunological mechanisms that may be responsible for preventing HIV-1 acquisition. Recent results from HIV-1 immune correlates work has demonstrated that there are multiple types of immune responses that together, comprise an immune correlate-thus implicating polyfunctional immune control of HIV-1 transmission. An in depth understanding of these complex immunological mechanisms of protection against HIV-1 will accelerate the development of an efficacious HIV-1 vaccine.