Single generation epigenetic change in captivity and reinforcement in subsequent generations in a delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) conservation hatchery.

A refugial population of the endangered delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) has been maintained at the Fish Conservation and Culture Laboratory (FCCL) at UC Davis since 2008. Despite intense genetic management, fitness differences between wild and cultured fish have been observed at the FCCL. To investigate the molecular underpinnings of hatchery domestication, we used whole-genome bisulfite sequencing to quantify epigenetic differences between wild and hatchery-origin delta smelt. Differentially methylated regions (DMRs) were identified from 104 individuals by comparing the methylation patterns in different generations of hatchery fish (G1, G2, G3) with their wild parents (G0). We discovered a total of 132 significant DMRs (p < .05) between G0 and G1, 132 significant DMRs between G0 and G2, and 201 significant DMRs between G0 and G3. Our results demonstrate substantial differences in methylation patterns emerged between the wild and hatchery-reared fish in the early generations in the hatchery, with a higher proportion of hypermethylated DMRs in hatchery-reared fish. The rearing environment was found to be a stronger predictor of individual clustering based on methylation patterns than family, sex or generation. Our study indicates a reinforcement of the epigenetic status with successive generations in the hatchery environment, as evidenced by an increase in methylation in hypermethylated DMRs and a decrease in methylation in hypomethylated DMRs over time. Lastly, our results demonstrated heterogeneity in inherited methylation pattern in families across generations. These insights highlight the long-term consequences of hatchery practices on the epigenetic landscape, potentially impacting wild fish populations.

Decline in Thermal Habitat Conditions for the Endangered Delta Smelt as Seen from Landsat Satellites (1985-2019).

This study uses Landsat 5, 7, and 8 level 2 collection 2 surface temperature to examine habitat suitability conditions spanning 1985-2019, relative to the thermal tolerance of the endemic and endangered delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) and two non-native fish, the largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) and Mississippi silverside (Menidia beryllina) in the upper San Francisco Estuary. This product was validated using thermal radiometer data collected from 2008 to 2019 from a validation site on a platform in the Salton Sea (RMSE = 0.78 °C, r = 0.99, R2 = 0.99, p < 0.01, and n = 237). Thermally unsuitable habitat, indicated by annual maximum water surface temperatures exceeding critical thermal maximum temperatures for each species, increased by 1.5 km2 yr-1 for the delta smelt with an inverse relationship to the delta smelt abundance index from the California Department of Fish and Wildlife (r = -0.44, R2 = 0.2, p < 0.01). Quantile and Theil-Sen regression showed that the delta smelt are unable to thrive when the thermally unsuitable habitat exceeds 107 km2. A habitat unsuitable for the delta smelt but survivable for the non-natives is expanding by 0.82 km2 yr-1. Warming waters in the San Francisco Estuary are reducing the available habitat for the delta smelt.

Characterizing the stress response in juvenile Delta smelt exposed to multiple stressors.

The Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), once an abundant fish endemic to the Sacramento-San Joaquin Estuary, is now on the brink of extinction. Due to the high sensitivity of this species, knowledge of their stress response will be vital to their future survival and sustainability. Understanding the magnitude and kinetics of cortisol induction in Delta Smelt will provide valuable information when interpreting the degree of environmentally relevant stressors, such as warming and predator exposure. As little is known about the primary stress response and cortisol dynamics in Delta Smelt, the first aim of this study was to measure basal and maximal whole-body cortisol prior to and following exposure to a sublethal and significant netting stress at 17 and 21 °C. Our findings reveal that juvenile Delta Smelt held at 21 °C display an exacerbated stress response and a reduction in available energy compared to fish held at 17 °C. There was no evidence of the secondary stress response to the netting stress as whole-body glucose and lactate levels in treatment groups remained similar to basal values. The second aim of this study was to investigate the effect of a largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) predator cue, which was found to induce a significant increase in cortisol relative to control levels in juvenile Delta Smelt. Indices such as cortisol can be used as bioindicators of stress in the field and results from this study suggest that moderate temperatures and reduced predation are optimal release conditions during hatchery-based supplementation to minimize stress to this highly sensitive species.

Improving inference for nonlinear state-space models of animal population dynamics given biased sequential life stage data.

State-space models (SSMs) are a popular tool for modeling animal abundances. Inference difficulties for simple linear SSMs are well known, particularly in relation to simultaneous estimation of process and observation variances. Several remedies to overcome estimation problems have been studied for relatively simple SSMs, but whether these challenges and proposed remedies apply for nonlinear stage-structured SSMs, an important class of ecological models, is less well understood. Here we identify improvements for inference about nonlinear stage-structured SSMs fit with biased sequential life stage data. Theoretical analyses indicate parameter identifiability requires covariates in the state processes. Simulation studies show that plugging in externally estimated observation variances, as opposed to jointly estimating them with other parameters, reduces bias and standard error of estimates. In contrast to previous results for simple linear SSMs, strong confounding between jointly estimated process and observation variance parameters was not found in the models explored here. However, when observation variance was also estimated in the motivating case study, the resulting process variance estimates were implausibly low (near-zero). As SSMs are used in increasingly complex ways, understanding when inference can be expected to be successful, and what aids it, becomes more important. Our study illustrates (a) the need for relevant process covariates and (b) the benefits of using externally estimated observation variances for inference about nonlinear stage-structured SSMs.

Resistance and resilience of pelagic and littoral fishes to drought in the San Francisco Estuary.

Many estuarine ecosystems and the fish communities that inhabit them have undergone substantial changes in the past several decades, largely due to multiple interacting stressors that are often of anthropogenic origin. Few are more impactful than droughts, which are predicted to increase in both frequency and severity with climate change. In this study, we examined over five decades of fish monitoring data from the San Francisco Estuary, California, USA, to evaluate the resistance and resilience of fish communities to disturbance from prolonged drought events. High resistance was defined by the lack of decline in species occurrence from a wet to a subsequent drought period, while high resilience was defined by the increase in species occurrence from a drought to a subsequent wet period. We found some unifying themes connecting the multiple drought events over the 50-yr period. Pelagic fishes consistently declined during droughts (low resistance), but exhibit a considerable amount of resiliency and often rebound in the subsequent wet years. However, full recovery does not occur in all wet years following droughts, leading to permanently lower baseline numbers for some pelagic fishes over time. In contrast, littoral fishes seem to be more resistant to drought and may even increase in occurrence during dry years. Based on the consistent detrimental effects of drought on pelagic fishes within the San Francisco Estuary and the inability of these fish populations to recover in some years, we conclude that freshwater flow remains a crucial but not sufficient management tool for the conservation of estuarine biodiversity.

Monitoring Turbidity in San Francisco Estuary and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Using Satellite Remote Sensing.

This study utilizes satellite data to investigate water quality conditions in the San Francisco Estuary and its upstream delta, the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. To do this, this study derives turbidity from the European Space Agency satellite Sentinel-2 acquired from September 2015 to June 2019 and conducts a rigorous validation with in situ measurements of turbidity from optical sensors at continuous monitoring stations. This validation includes 965 matchup comparisons between satellite and in situ sensor data across 22 stations, yielding R 2 = 0.63 and 0.75 for Nephelometric Turbidity Unit and Formazin Nephelometric Unit (FNU) stations, respectively. This study then applies remote sensing to evaluate patterns in turbidity during the Suisun Marsh Salinity Control Gates Action ("Gates action"), a pilot study designed to increase habitat access and quality for the endangered Delta Smelt. The basic strategy was to direct more freshwater into Suisun Marsh, creating more low salinity habitat that would then have higher (and more suitable) turbidity than upstream river channels. For all seven acquisitions considered from June 29 to September 27, 2018, turbidity conditions in Bays and Sloughs subregions were consistently higher (and more suitable) (26-47 FNU) than what was observed in the upstream River region (13-25 FNU). This overall pattern was observed when comparing images acquired during similar tidal stages and heights.

Factors Controlling Calanoid Copepod Biomass and Distribution in the Upper San Francisco Estuary and Implications for Managing the Imperiled Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus).

Delta smelt struggle to persist in a dramatically altered estuarine environment. Complex and incompletely understood relationships between food availability, environmental stressors, other components of the species' habitat, and the abundance of delta smelt impede the effective management and recovery of the species. The empirical modeling presented in this study quantitatively describes spatial-temporal biomass values of calanoid copepods, a key prey item for delta smelt, in relation to multiple potential controlling factors. The results underscore the role that river flows through the estuary have in determining prey availability, and demonstrate contributions of water temperature, salinity, and macronutrients in determining copepod biomass. The analysis also shows the importance of non-native, invasive bivalves in determining copepod biomass. Importantly, the analysis describes spatial-temporal shifts in the relative importance of modeled covariates across sampling locations in the Delta. Model results indicate that increasing flows in the fall of wetter years adversely affected copepod biomass, while increases in flows in the spring of drier years provided regional increases in biomass. The results of this analysis can inform resource management decisions and contribute to a comprehensive model that can meaningfully guide efforts to recover the imperiled delta smelt.

A pilot study of the performance of captive-reared delta smelt Hypomesus transpacificus in a semi-natural environment.

A captive breeding programme was developed in 2008 for delta smelt Hypomesus transpacificus in reaction to dramatic population decline over several decades. We took 526 sub-adult captive-reared delta smelt and cultured them for 200 days without providing artificial food or water quality management to assess their performance once released in the wild. The results indicated captive-reared sub-adult delta smelt could survive in a semi-natural environment with uncontrolled water quality and naturally produced wild prey through spawning and into their post spawning phase.

Multiple sub-lethal thresholds for cellular responses to thermal stressors in an estuarine fish.

Understanding physiological limits and the ability to acclimatize to changing conditions will determine whether species will be able to cope with further increases in water temperature. Changes in temperature may be considered to become stressful for an ectotherm when it results in reduced performance, which can lead to fitness level consequences. The relative intensity of the stressor as well as the duration of the exposure to the stressor will determine the response observed. Transcriptomic responses can potentially indicate thresholds where physiological performance begins to decline. An understanding of the cellular shifts throughout the temperature range that an organism experiences in the wild is often lacking, especially for species of conservation concern such as the delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus). We examined the expression of 15 genes that represented cellular responses related to stress, growth, cell proliferation and osmoregulation to show how the response patterns change to acute increases in temperatures that occur throughout the thermal distribution of the species. Several genes showed U-shaped or inverted U-shaped response patterns suggesting the presence of sub-lethal thresholds as temperatures increase. We also highlight the importance of including a temporal component to exposure studies as several genes showed a delay in the recovery to control levels at extreme temperatures. We propose that the non-linear response patterns represent sub-lethal thermal thresholds that can predict the severity of the response to thermal stressors. Identifying these sub-lethal thresholds can help differentiate between responses to routine increases in water temperature and responses that can lead to longer-term fitness impacts.

Analysis of Limiting Factors Across the Life Cycle of Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus).

We developed a mechanistic life-cycle model derived from the elicitation of multiple factors influencing the success of individual life-stages of the imperiled delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus). We discuss the relevance of limiting factors in population ecology and problems with additive models in detecting them. We identify limiting factors and assess their significance using a non-linear optimization routine, combined with traditional metrics to assess the value of covariates and model performance. After reviewing previous conceptual models and multivariate analyses, we identified a set of factors that were consistent with conceptual models and useful in explaining the erratic fluctuations in a common abundance index: food at certain times in certain locations, predation by introduced species primarily in the spring, and entrainment. The analytical approach provides a transparent and intuitive framework in which to consider the contribution of covariates and consequences for population trends, and has the potential to assist with the evaluation of proposed recovery measures.

Effects of high temperatures on threatened estuarine fishes during periods of extreme drought.

Climate change and associated increases in water temperatures may impact physiological performance in ectotherms and exacerbate endangered species declines. We used an integrative approach to assess the impact of elevated water temperature on two fishes of immediate conservation concern in a large estuary system, the threatened longfin smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys) and endangered delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus). Abundances have reached record lows in California, USA, and these populations are at imminent risk of extirpation. California is currently impacted by a severe drought, resulting in high water temperatures, conditions that will become more common as a result of climate change. We exposed fish to environmentally relevant temperatures (14°C and 20°C) and used RNA sequencing to examine the transcriptome-wide responses to elevated water temperature in both species. Consistent with having a lower temperature tolerance, longfin smelt exhibited a pronounced cellular stress response, with an upregulation of heat shock proteins, after exposure to 20°C that was not observed in delta smelt. We detected an increase in metabolic rate in delta smelt at 20°C and increased expression of genes involved in metabolic processes and protein synthesis, patterns not observed in longfin smelt. Through examination of responses across multiple levels of biological organization, and by linking these responses to habitat distributions in the wild, we demonstrate that longfin smelt may be more susceptible than delta smelt to increases in temperatures, and they have little room to tolerate future warming in California. Understanding the species-specific physiological responses of sensitive species to environmental stressors is crucial for conservation efforts and managing aquatic systems globally.

Physiological effects of salinity on Delta Smelt, Hypomesus transpacificus.

Abiotic factors like salinity are relevant to survival of pelagic fishes of the San Francisco Bay Estuary. We tested the effects of 4 parts per thousand (ppt) salinity increases on Delta Smelt (DS) in a laboratory experiment simulating salinity increases that might occur around the low-salinity zone (LSZ) (<6 ppt). Adult DS, fed 2% body mass per day, starting at 0.5 ppt [freshwater (FW)], were exposed to weekly step-increases of 4 ppt to a maximum of 10 ppt saltwater (SW) over 19 days, and compared to FW controls. DS (n = 12/treatment per sampling) were sampled at 24, 72, and 96 h (1, 3, and 4 days) post-salinity increase for analyses of hematocrit, plasma osmolality, muscle water content, gill chloride cell (CC) Na(+)/K(+)-ATPase (NKA) and apoptosis after being weighed and measured (n = 3 tanks per treatment). No apparent increase in length or weight occurred nor did a difference in survival. Following step-increases in SW, hematocrit increased over time. Other fish responses generally showed a pattern; specifically plasma osmolality became elevated at 1 day and diminished over 4 days in SW. Percent muscle water content (%) did not show significant changes. CCs showed increased NKA, cell size and apoptosis over time in SW, indicating that CCs turnover in DS. The cell renewal process takes days, at least over 19 days. In summary, DS are affected by salinities of the LSZ and ≤10 ppt, though they employ physiological strategies to acclimate.

Evaluating environmental DNA detection of a rare fish in turbid water using field and experimental approaches.

Detection sensitivity of aquatic species using environmental DNA (eDNA) generally decreases in turbid water but is poorly characterized. In this study, eDNA detection targeted delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), a critically endangered estuarine fish associated with turbid water. eDNA sampling in the field was first paired with a trawl survey. Species-specific detection using a Taqman qPCR assay showed concordance between the methods, but a weak eDNA signal. Informed by the results of field sampling, an experiment was designed to assess how turbidity and filtration methods influence detection of a rare target. Water from non-turbid (5 NTU) and turbid (50 NTU) estuarine sites was spiked with small volumes (0.5 and 1 mL) of water from a delta smelt tank to generate low eDNA concentrations. Samples were filtered using four filter types: cartridge filters (pore size 0.45 µm) and 47 mm filters (glass fiber, pore size 1.6 µm and polycarbonate, pore sizes 5 and 10 µm). Prefiltration was also tested as an addition to the filtration protocol for turbid water samples. eDNA copy numbers were analyzed using a censored data method for qPCR data. The assay limits and lack of PCR inhibition indicated an optimized assay. Glass fiber filters yielded the highest detection rates and eDNA copies in non-turbid and turbid water. Prefiltration improved detection in turbid water only when used with cartridge and polycarbonate filters. Statistical analysis identified turbidity as a significant effect on detection probability and eDNA copies detected; filter type and an interaction between filter type and prefilter were significant effects on eDNA copies detected, suggesting that particulate-filter interactions can affect detection sensitivity. Pilot experiments and transparent criteria for positive detection could improve eDNA surveys of rare species in turbid environments.

Effects of turbidity, temperature and predation cue on the stress response of juvenile delta smelt.

The San Francisco Estuary (SFE) is one of the most degraded ecosystems in the United States, and organisms that inhabit it are exposed to a suite of environmental stressors. The delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), a small semi-anadromous fish endemic to the SFE and considered an indicator species, is close to extinction in the wild. The goal of this study was to investigate how environmental alterations to the SFE, such as reductions in turbidities, higher temperatures and increased prevalence of invasive predators affect the physiology and stress response of juvenile delta smelt. Juvenile delta smelt were exposed to two temperatures (17 and 21°C) and two turbidities (1-2 and 10-11 NTU) for 2 weeks. After the first week of exposure, delta smelt were exposed to a largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) predator cue at the same time every day for 7 days. Fish were measured and sampled on the first (acute) and final (chronic) day of exposures to predator cues and later analyzed for whole-body cortisol, glucose, lactate, and protein. Length and mass measurements were used to calculate condition factor of fish in each treatment. Turbidity had the greatest effect on juvenile delta smelt and resulted in reduced cortisol, increased glucose and lactate, and greater condition factor. Elevated temperatures reduced available energy in delta smelt, indicated by lower glucose and total protein, whereas predator cue exposure had negligible effects on their stress response. This is the first study to show reduced cortisol in juvenile delta smelt held in turbid conditions and adds to the growing data that suggest this species performs best in moderate temperatures and turbidities. Multistressor experiments are necessary to understand the capacity of delta smelt to respond to the multivariate and dynamic changes in their natural environment, and results from this study should be considered for management-based conservation efforts.

Combining multiple data sources with different biases in state-space models for population dynamics.

The resolution at which animal populations can be modeled can be increased when multiple datasets corresponding to different life stages are available, allowing, for example, seasonal instead of annual descriptions of dynamics. However, the abundance estimates used for model fitting can have multiple sources of error, both random and systematic, namely bias. We focus here on the consequences of, and how to address, differing and unknown observation biases when fitting models.State-space models (SSMs) separate process variation and observation error, thus providing a framework to account for different and unknown estimate biases across multiple datasets. Here we study the effects on the inference of including or excluding bias parameters for a sequential life stage population dynamics SSM using a combination of theory, simulation experiments, and an empirical example.When the data, that is, abundance estimates, are unbiased, including bias parameters leads to increased imprecision compared to a model that correctly excludes bias parameters. But when observations are biased and no bias parameters are estimated, recruitment and survival processes are inaccurately estimated and estimates of process variance become biased high. These problems are substantially reduced by including bias parameters and fixing one of them at even an incorrect value. The primary inferential challenge is that models with bias parameters can show properties of being parameter redundant even when they are not in theory.Combining multiple datasets into a single analysis by using bias parameters to rescale data can offer significant improvements to inference and model diagnostics. Because their estimability in practice is dataset specific and will likely require more precise estimates than might be expected from ecological datasets, we outline some strategies for characterizing process uncertainty when it is confounded by bias parameters.

Loss of plasticity in maturation timing after ten years of captive spawning in a delta smelt conservation hatchery.

Adaptation to captivity in spawning programs can lead to unintentional consequences, such as domestication that results in reduced fitness in the wild. The timing of sexual maturation has been shown to be a trait under domestication selection in fish hatcheries, which affects a fish's access to mating opportunities and aligning their offspring's development with favorable environmental conditions. Earlier maturing fish may be favored in hatchery settings where managers provide artificially optimal growing conditions, but early maturation may reduce fitness in the wild if, for example, there is a mismatch between timing of reproduction and availability of resources that support recruitment. We investigated patterns of maturation timing in a delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) conservation hatchery by quantifying changes to the median age at maturity since the captive spawning program was initiated in 2008. Over the span of a decade, we observed a small, but significant increase in age at maturity among broodstock by 2.2 weeks. This trait had low heritability and was largely controlled by phenotypic plasticity that was dependent on the time of year fish were born. Fish that were born later in the year matured faster, potentially a carryover from selection favoring synchronous spawning in the wild. However, higher DI (domestication index) fish showed a loss of plasticity, we argue, as a result of hatchery practices that breed individuals past peak periods of female ripeness. Our findings suggest that the hatchery setting has relaxed selection pressures for fish to mature quickly at the end of the year and, consequently, has led to a loss of plasticity in age at maturity. Hatchery fish that are re-introduced in the wild may not be able to align maturation with population peaks if their maturation rates are too slow with reduced plasticity, potentially resulting in lower fitness.

Polygenic discrimination of migratory phenotypes in an estuarine forage fish.

Migration is a complex phenotypic trait with some species containing migratory and nonmigratory individuals. Such life history variation may be attributed in part to plasticity, epigenetics, or genetics. Although considered semianadromous, recent studies using otolith geochemistry have revealed life history variation within the critically endangered Delta Smelt. Broadly categorizable as migratory or freshwater residents, we examined Restriction site Associated DNA sequencing data to test for a relationship between genetic variation and migratory behaviors. As previously shown, we found no evidence for neutral population genetic structure within Delta Smelt; however, we found significant evidence for associations between genetic variants and life history phenotypes. Furthermore, discriminant analysis of principal components, hierarchical clustering, and machine learning resulted in accurate assignment of fish into the freshwater resident or migratory classes based on their genotypes. These results suggest the presence of adaptive genetic variants relating to life history variation within a panmictic population. Mechanisms that may lead to this observation are genotype dependent habitat choice and spatially variable selection, both of which could operate each generation and are not exclusive. Given that the population of cultured Delta Smelt are being used as a refugial population for conservation, as a supply for wild population supplementation, and currently represent the majority of all living individuals of this species, we recommend that the hatchery management strategy consider the frequencies of life history-associated alleles and how to maintain this important aspect of Delta Smelt biological variation while under captive propagation.

Exposure to permethrin or chlorpyrifos causes differential dose- and time-dependent behavioral effects at early larval stages of an endangered teleost species.

Pyrethroid and organophosphate pesticides are two of the most commonly used classes of insecticide worldwide. At sublethal concentrations, permethrin (a pyrethroid) and chlorpyrifos (an organophosphate) impact behavior in model fish species. We investigated behavioral effects of environmentally relevant concentrations of permethrin or chlorpyrifos on early larval delta smelt Hypomesus transpacificus, a Critically Endangered teleost species endemic to the San Francisco Bay Delta, California, USA. Using a photomotor behavioral assay of oscillating light and dark periods, we measured distance moved, turn angle, meander, angular velocity, rotations, thigmotaxis (time spent in the border versus center), and swim speed duration and frequency. The lowest concentrations of permethrin used in the tests (0.05 and 0.5 µg l-1) caused significant increases in distance moved at 72 and 96 h, respectively. At 48, 72, and 96 h of exposure, 5 µg l-1 of permethrin caused a hyperactive state in which the larvae significantly decreased thigmotaxis, quickly turning in short bouts of activity, characterized by significant increases in rotations and freezing events. Larvae exposed to 0.05 µg l-1 chlorpyrifos significantly increased thigmotaxis at 72 and 96 h. In response to 5 µg l-1 chlorpyrifos, larvae significantly increased velocity at 72 h exposure, and significantly increased freezing events at 96 h. Behavioral data on larval delta smelt exposed to contaminants present in their limited habitat have the potential to aid evaluations of the suitability of spawning and rearing habitats for this endangered species, thus improving conservation management strategies focused on this sensitive life stage.

Experimental validation of otolith-based age and growth reconstructions across multiple life stages of a critically endangered estuarine fish.

BACKGROUND: The application of otolith-based tools to inform the management and conservation of fishes first requires taxon- and stage-specific validation. The Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), a critically endangered estuarine fish that is endemic to the upper San Francisco Estuary (SFE), California, United States, serves as a key indicator species in the SFE; thus, understanding this species' vital rates and population dynamics is valuable for assessing the overall health of the estuary. Otolith-based tools have been developed and applied across multiple life stages of Delta Smelt to reconstruct age structure, growth, phenology, and migration. However, key methodological assumptions have yet to be validated, thus limiting confidence in otolith-derived metrics that are important for informing major water management decisions in the SFE. METHODS: Using known-age cultured Delta Smelt and multiple independent otolith analysts, we examined otolith formation, otolith-somatic proportionality, aging accuracy and precision, left-right symmetry, and the effects of image magnification for larval, juvenile, and adult Delta Smelt. RESULTS: Overall, otolith size varied linearly with fish size (from 10-60 mm), explaining 99% of the variation in fish length, despite a unique slope for larvae < 10 mm. Otolith-somatic proportionality was similar among wild and cultured specimens. Aging precision among independent analysts was 98% and aging accuracy relative to known ages was 96%, with age estimates exhibiting negligible differences among left and right otoliths. Though error generally increased with age, percent error decreased from 0-30 days-post-hatch, with precision remaining relatively high (≥ 95%) thereafter. Increased magnification (400×) further improved aging accuracy for the oldest, slowest-growing individuals. Together, these results indicate that otolith-based techniques provide reliable age and growth reconstructions for larval, juvenile, and adult Delta Smelt. Such experimental assessments across multiple developmental stages are key steps toward assessing confidence in otolith-derived metrics that are often used to assess the dynamics of wild fish populations.

Space-for-time is not necessarily a substitution when monitoring the distribution of pelagic fishes in the San Francisco Bay-Delta.

Occupancy models are often used to analyze long-term monitoring data to better understand how and why species redistribute across dynamic landscapes while accounting for incomplete capture. However, this approach requires replicate detection/non-detection data at a sample unit and many long-term monitoring programs lack temporal replicate surveys. In such cases, it has been suggested that surveying subunits within a larger sample unit may be an efficient substitution (i.e., space-for-time substitution). Still, the efficacy of fitting occupancy models using a space-for-time substitution has not been fully explored and is likely context dependent. Herein, we fit occupancy models to Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) and Longfin Smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys) catch data collected by two different monitoring programs that use the same sampling gear in the San Francisco Bay-Delta, USA. We demonstrate how our inferences concerning the distribution of these species changes when using a space-for-time substitution. Specifically, we found the probability that a sample unit was occupied was much greater when using a space-for-time substitution, presumably due to the change in the spatial scale of our inferences. Furthermore, we observed that as the spatial scale of our inferences increased, our ability to detect environmental effects on system dynamics was obscured, which we suspect is related to the tradeoffs associated with spatial grain and extent. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of considering how the unique characteristics of monitoring programs influences inferences, which has broad implications for how to appropriately leverage existing long-term monitoring data to understand the distribution of species.